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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 AAA Texas 500 at TMS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Greg Biffle	5	12.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	9	15.03
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	5	16.65
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	3	15.41
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	9	15.26
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	9	16.21
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	David Ragan	12	15.62
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	5	13.56
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	37	22.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	9	17.12
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	27	12.76
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	27	14.76
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Greg Biffle	5	15.29
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	3	13.50
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	9	12.56
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	9	13.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	3	16.12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	3	14.56

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA Texas 500 at texas Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	12.68
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	2	13.38
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	13	12.62
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.88
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	4	13.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	4	15.15
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	2	13.18
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	15.44
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	13	13.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	13.15
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	14	14.18
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	4	12.71
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	11.71
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	11.97
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Matt kenseth	4	12.56
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	4	10.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Matt Kenseth	4	12.41
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Matt Kenseth	4	14.38

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas 2 - AAA Texas 500

I hope you enjoyed last Sunday’s caution-filled race at Martinsville Speedway because this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway will, more than likely, be what I like to call a snooze-fest. What’s good for fantasy owners, though, is that the practice schedule for this event is back to “normal.” There will be one session on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying at 4:30 eastern time. Then, on Saturday, two more practices will be held where all of the cars will be in race trim, so average practice speeds shouldn’t be skewed much. The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled to start around 3:30 pm eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Matt Kenseth - Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.

2. Carl Edwards - If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).

3. Jimmie Johnson - I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.

4. Greg Biffle - If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.

5. Denny Hamlin - This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.

6. Tony Stewart - This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.

9. Mark Martin - Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.

10. Jeff Burton - Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.

11. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.

12. Clint Bowyer - Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).

13. Kasey Kahne - In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.

14. David Ragan - As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.

15. Brad Keselowski - This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:

Brian Vickers - I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.

Jamie McMurray - Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.

Scouting Report: Texas

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the AAA 500:

1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. I would specifically recommend you study what happened in the Atlanta, Chicagoland, Kansas and Charlotte races. The key to making a good pick can be found by studying these races.

2) As with any track it’s important to study a drivers track history. When I write my fantasy content I typically go back to the start of the COT era at the track.

3) Practice is extremely important this week. Picking a driver who struggles in practice certainly won’t pay off this week.

4) Qualifying and track position is important every week but in today’s NASCAR it can be overcome quite easily with pit strategy. Pick the best cars, and only use qualifying as a tie breaker when you need to pick between drivers.

Elite Drivers at Texas:

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth snapped his long 76 race winless streak in April at Texas Motor Speedway. Kenseth didn’t only win, he dominated. He led 169 laps and had a near perfect 144.7 driver rating. Since 2007 Kenseth has truly been a “Elite Top Tier” driver. He has the best average finish (5.9), best average running position (9.1), best driver rating (108.4), ran and he’s led 354 laps (third most). His win at Charlotte last month is why I’m projecting him as the race winner.

Jimmie Johnson – His championship aspirations are over but that doesn’t mean he won’t get more “W’s”. The least amount of wins Johnson has accumulated in a season is three so I think he has another in him. Johnson won at Texas in 2007 and in the last three races his average finish is 6.3. Johnson has only finished outside the top fifteen twice at Texas in his entire career and both of those were due to crashes. What I really like about Johnson is how strong he’s been on intermediate tracks in the second half of the season. Don’t let his Charlotte performance scare you away from picking him, remember he was running in the top ten before the late accident parked him.

Greg Biffle – There’s no question Biffle has problems closing the deal this season. However I wouldn’t overlook him this week. He’s due for good fortune and I think it will come this week. Even though he’s a remarkably inconsistent driver no one can say that about him at Texas. He’s finished in the top ten in six consecutive races. No other driver in the series has an active streak longer than two. In these six races he’s led more laps than anyone (339), has the best average finish (5.9) and the best driver rating (113.8).

Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Texas since 2009 but I think he’ll be a top tier driver Sunday. Throughout the Chase Stewart has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. He won at Chicagoland, ran good at Kansas before pit strategy stranded him mid pack (finished 15th), and ran good at Charlotte (8th, pit strategy issues once again). In these three races his 115.8 driver rating ranks as the third best in the series. His 112 points accumulated ranks as the 4th best (37.3 points per race).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three time Texaswinner who finished 3rd in April. He started second and recorded his 4th highest driver rating of this season (116.0). Edwards is always a serious threat at 1.5 mile tracks. His recent history at Texas isn’t the best but you need to take in account him racing with a broken leg and a crash in the last 3/4ths of race after he ran good. In the three 1.5 mile track races in the Chase Edwards has finished 4th (Chicagoland), 5th (Kansas) and 3rd (Charlotte). I would expect similar results but there’s also a possibility he might start dialing back and race conservatively (4 tires every pit stop, no fuel strategy etc).

Check out more of driver rankings : “Elite Top Tier“, “Front Runners“, “Mid Packers” and “Back Runners“

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Texas Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Box Score From The Texas Race Earlier This Year
• 5 Year Texas Averages
• Texas Entry List

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over The Last Five Races:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Kasey Kahne
3. Tony Stewart
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Clint Bowyer
8. Jeff Burton
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Brad Keselowski

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win

• Jimmie Johnson 5/1
• Kyle Busch 5/1
• Tony Stewart 6/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Matt Kenseth 7/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 14/1
• Kurt Busch 16/1
• Clint Bowyer 18/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Samsung Mobile 500 from Texas

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Denny Hamlin	15	15.57
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	1	15.57
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	9	16.14
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	15.71
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	1	15.00
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	8	20.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	16	14.43
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	1	17.86
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Matt Kenseth	1	10.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	20	15.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Matt Kenseth	1	11.57
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	10.43
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	14.43
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	3	11.86
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	16	8.00
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kyle Busch	16	11.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	1	8.86
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	3	12.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	3	13.71

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2010 Samsung Mobile 500 from TMS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Paul Menard	5	8.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	4	13.86
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Joey Logano	24	16.71
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	13	14.57
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	2	8.71
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	15	9.86
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	15	11.71
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	9.29
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jamie McMurray	22	11.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	22	20.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	15	15.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	7.14
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	6.71
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	15	15.57
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	2	9.14
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	15	9.29
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	4	9.14
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Geg Biffle	4	17.43
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Paul Menard	5	10.29

Scouting Report: Texas

How should you go about picking a driver for Texas? Check out my chart to the left.

1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. We’ve seen two of them this year. California and Las Vegas aren’t exactly shaped like Texas but let’s not complicate things for no good reason.

2) Recent races at Texas are important for obvious reasons. I would recommend you don’t venture to far back into the past. Fantasy racing isn’t for historians, it’s a what have you done for me lately sport.

3) Practice is extremely important at Texas. However it might not be that important in the grand scheme of things this race because fantasy racers are in the dark this week. This isn’t your typical race weekend. The first and only televised practice session will be Thursday night.

4) Another good word for recent performances is momentum. Momentum exists, don’t embarrass yourself and say it doesn’t. However, if you would like to say it doesn’t tweet me your answer as to why it doesn’t. It could be the weekly tweet to the editor.

5) In racing it doesn’t matter where you start, it matters where you finish. I had a fantasy team in the past that started 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and do you know what happened? They crashed.  That’s we they run the races. Out front doesn’t equal out of trouble.

Ten Drivers To Watch

1. Carl Edwards – Only three-time winner at Texas and won at the other 1.5 mile track visited this year. Safest pick by far this week.

2. Kyle Busch – Finished third in this race last year, strong last fall but killed his own chances. Kyle was very competitive at California and Las Vegas.

3.  Kevin Harvick – Back to back winner and his driving style is very successful at this track. Three straight top tens at Texas.

4. Tony Stewart – Best intermediate track driver who hasn’t won a race this year. Finished second at Las Vegas but faded late in the Auto Club 400.

5. Jimmie Johnson – Three straight second place finishes in the spring Texas race. Look for him to visit victory lane soon.

6. Matt Kenseth – Since 2005 Kenseth has nine top tens at Texas. Last fall he finished second Denny Hamlin but he cost himself the race.

7. Denny Hamlin – Having swept the races at Texas last year Hamlin enters this race as a high risk pick because of his engine problems.

8. Greg Biffle – Led 224 laps last fall and had  a 142.5 driver rating. Previous winner of this event.

9. Ryan Newman -Newman’s been a surprising driver on intermediates this season. How’s he been doing that? He consistently takes gambles that worked out for him. In 2003 when he won at Texas do you remember how he won? I do, he took two tires, passed Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had four and drove into victory lane.

10. Juan Pablo Montoya – Finished third and tenth in the two intermediate track races this year. Don’t overlook Montoya because just like Harvick he’s a master of the high line.

TheSpread.com Odds to win….

Denny Hamlin 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Kevin Harvick 9/1, Tony Stewart 9/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Matt Kenseth 16/1, Greg Biffle 16/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1, Mark Martin 20/1, Kurt Busch 20/1

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas - Samsung Mobile 500

The Sprint Cup Series heads to “The Great American Speedway” in Texas this weekend for the first night race of the season. The green flag is set to wave around 7:30 eastern time on Saturday night after a practice session and qualifying is held on Friday afternoon. The first of the two practice sessions this weekend is set to be run on Thursday at 5 o’clock eastern time. Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile quad oval similar to Charlotte Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are really very few drivers that are consistently up front here, so picking for a race like this can sometimes be difficult.

During The Last Race at Texas…Denny Hamlin started 30th but wound up winning the race here in November after leading 31 laps. Greg Biffle had the most laps led that day with 224; he ended up finishing 5th. Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Joey Logano filled in the space between Hamlin and Biffle in the finishing order. During the spring race here in 2010, Hamlin also found victory lane after starting 29th and leading just 12 laps. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five that day. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle were the only drivers to record top ten finishes in both races at Texas Motor Speedway in 2010.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The cars from Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have the best average finish here over the past two years, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of the Hendrick Motorsports boys. You can’t overlook Roush-Fenway Racing when the series comes to these intermediate tracks but they haven’t won here since 2008 when Carl Edwards swept both races. Usually those who start near the front finish there, but as Denny Hamlin showed in both races last year, it is not necessary to be fast in qualifying to visit victory lane. If you are wondering how important average practice speed is at Texas, click here for the results of the fall race last year with the drivers ranked on how fast they were in practice.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

1. Kevin Harvick - I said in the off-season that everyone should jump off of Harvick’s bandwagon while they could, but it looks like I need to jump back on (read that story by clicking here). The #29 Chevrolet was junk for 80% of the race in Martinsville but they got it dialed in late and Harvick wound up winning the race. He really is living up to his nickname of “The Closer.” At Texas, Kevin has made 16 career starts and owns an average finish of 12.4 with a best finish of 5th. I think he has a great shot to better that this week, as he has had super fast cars at most of the races this year–including two weeks ago at Las Vegas. He’s only led five laps here in his career, but it’s the last lap that counts, as Harvick should know by now. His past three finishes here have been 6th, 7th, and 5th.

2. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is actually really, really good at this track and he’s on a roll this year, with three straight finishes of 6th or better and no finish lower than 11th since Daytona. He finished 20th in the spring race here last season, but before that he was on a streak of six straight top 10s, and he turned around and finished runner-up in the fall race. In seventeen starts at this track, Kenseth has recorded 11 top tens (including one win) and has an average finish of 9.5. He’s finished runner-up at this track four times.

3. Denny Hamlin - His teammate, Kyle Busch, says that Joe Gibbs Racing has found the cause of their engine problems, and this week will be a good one to test that statement. As I said before, Hamlin won both races at Texas in 2010 and has an average finish of 4th over his past four starts at this track. He’s finished outside of the top 20 only once in eleven tries here, and that is evident by his career average finish of 8.8. After last week’s heartbreaker and with the engine problems Gibbs has had this year, Hamlin could be a risky pick, but as the saying goes, “high risk, high reward.”

4. Jimmie Johnson - For the last three years, “Five Time” has finished 2nd in the first race held at Texas Motor Speedway. Can he continue that streak this weekend? It’s surely possible, especially with how strong he was at Fontana. In fifteen starts at this track, Johnson has amassed eleven top 10s, including one win in 2007. He’s also finished outside of the top 15 just twice in his career at this track, so expect another solid day out of “The Champ” on Saturday night.

5. Greg Biffle -Over the past four races at this track, “The Biff” has the best average driver rating in the series and the third-best average finish (6.5). He’s on a five-race streak of top 10s at this 1.5-mile racetrack and he won here in 2005. He started 3rd and 2nd at Texas in 2010 so expect a good qualifying effort out of Biffle on Friday as well. He’s struggled a bit at these intermediates thus far in 2011, but I expect that to change on Saturday.

6. Tony Stewart - The Stewart-Haas cars have been really strong on the intermediate tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. “Smoke” won here in 2006 and has an average finish of 13.2 in eighteen career starts at this track. In the last seven races at Texas, Stewart has just one finish outside of the top 20, and it will take a wreck or mechanical failure for that number to be two after this weekend’s race.

7. Kurt Busch - Last week, Kurt finished 16th in Martinsville after being a 30th-place car for much of the afternoon. I don’t expect the “Double Deuce” to be a 30th-place car this weekend, so a top ten can be expected on Saturday. Kurt has struggled at this racetrack here and there, but he has three top tens in his past four starts and a career average finish of 13.8. He won the fall race in 2009.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Little E has been running great this season and hasn’t finished worse than 12th since Daytona. He’s struggled at Texas recently–with just one top ten (8th last season) in the past eight races here–but this is the track where he got his first Sprint Cup series win. With another strong car this weekend, Junior might find victory lane and finally end his winless streak. He should have a good qualifying effort on Friday, too, as his average start at this track is around 10th.

9. Kyle Busch - This ranking will probably prove to be too low once it’s all said and done, so look for Shrub to move up when I post my predictions on Friday. Last fall, Busch had a fast car but, in case you don’t remember, he was penalized two laps for flipping off a NASCAR official and finished 32nd. Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race last season, and that is his best finish at this track. If you think his engine will last all race, Rowdy probably won’t be too bad of a pick this weekend.

10. Ryan Newman - As I said before, the Stewart-Haas cars have hit on something at these intermediate races this year. Newman isn’t the first driver I think of when the series comes to these tracks, but he finished 5th in Las Vegas last month as well as in Fontana a couple weeks ago. “The Rocketman” won at this track in 2003, and while his best finish is 11th while driving for Stewart-Haas at this track, that could easily change this weekend. His average finish in the past two years at Texas is 14.5.

11. Carl Edwards - Edwards isn’t as consistent at this track as he is at other intermediates, but he’s won here three times and you can never overlook the 99 here. He hasn’t finished better than 10th here since his wins in 2008, but Carl is having a great season so it’s very possible that he turns his luck around at this track. He won in Las Vegas and had just a decent car at Fontana but still got a 6th-place finish. If he looks good in practice, expect Cousin Carl to move up when I make my predictions on Friday.

12. Mark Martin - This team is lacking something this year, and until they get it figured out, I won’t be very high on Martin. He hasn’t finished worse than 6th at Texas in his past four starts here and has an average finish of 12.4 in his career here. I think Martin will be a mid-teens driver on Saturday night, with a small shot at a finish around 10th if he can get lucky.

13. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made ten starts at this track and owns five top 10s and an average finish of 14.5. He’s finished 7th, 7th, and 4th in past three fall races at Texas, so you might want to wait until November when the series visits this track again to pick him. Bowyer has two top tens in a row now, though, so he looks to be climbing out of the hole that he dug himself in earlier this season. He ended up 7th in Fontana.

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex qualifies in the top ten on Friday, expect a good race from him on Saturday. He finished 6th at Las Vegas after qualifying 9th and has top ten finishes in every race that he has qualified there at Texas. Martin’s average finish here is 16.1 and, as always, be cautious if you pick him this weekend because he is always a risky pick.

15. David Ragan - David got his first top ten of the season last week in Martinsville (who expected that?) and could get his second on Saturday, although I would say a top fifteen is more likely. In eight starts at Texas, Ragan has three finishes of 37th or worse, but in the other five races he hasn’t finished worse than 17th. David ended up 15th and 8th at this track in 2010.

Underdogs Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose hasn’t been terrible this year at the intermediates and has found success at this track. He’s made five starts here and has just one finish worse than 21st. Last year he finished 17th and 12th at Texas and had a super fast Ford at Las Vegas a month ago.

Trevor Bayne - With Bayne running a limited schedule, this is an excellent place to use him in allocation leagues. He made his Sprint Cup debut here last fall and posted a respectable 17th-place finish. The Daytona 500 winner finished 20th at Las Vegas, and I think he will be right around there this weekend with the possibility of a top fifteen.

A.J. Allmendinger - I like him better at the flat tracks, but Allmendinger has found success at the intermediate tracks as well. He finished 14th at Fontana and ended up 19th at Las Vegas. The ‘Dinger hasn’t finished worse than 14th at Texas in his past three starts here and has been quietly having a very consistent season.

Paul Menard - As you know, these are the tracks that Menard excels at, so it’s a good idea to keep him in the back of your mind when the series comes to the intermediates. He got a 10th-place finish here last fall and in the two races at intermediate tracks this season, Menard had finishes of 16th and 12th.

Those To Avoid Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two top tens on the intermediates this year, so he may surprise me this weekend, but his average finish at Texas is 23.8 and he hasn’t finished better than 16th here since 2007. His best result at this track came in his first start, and that was 12th.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” posted a top five at Texas in the fall last year, but his next best finish is 19th. With the way this young man’s season has been going, I’d wait until he has a few good races before taking Logano.

Jeff Gordon - Gordon won here in 2009, and while he has nine top 10s in his twenty starts at this track, he also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. He hasn’t been impressive at the intermediates this season, either, ending up 36th at Las Vegas and 18th at Fontana. There are better choices than the #24 this week.

Brad Keselowski - His teammate, Kurt Busch, may have found success at Texas in the “Blue Deuce,” but I doubt that BK will. He finished 14th here last spring but his career average finish is right around 25th. He won’t be any good for qualifying bonus points, either, as Keselowski has never started better than 35th at this track.

Hopefully you like night races because we’re entering a streak of them. Over the next four races, three of them will be held on Saturday night. Be sure to check out my post-qualifying race predictions on Friday over at ifantasyrace.com and if you’re looking for a good place to chat with other fans during the race, check out NASCAR Nation.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Denny Hamlin	1	13.91
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	11.29
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	6	10.56
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	19	11.79
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	32	13.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	1	10.18
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	9	10.85
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	12.82
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	9	13.62
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	11	12.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	9	10.71
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	14.15
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Matt Kenseth	2	12.29
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	32	13.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	32	14.12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	6	10.82
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch	32	13.50
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	9	11.53
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	1	14.65

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	15.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	13.82
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Dale Earnhardt Jr	25	19.59
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	13	11.65
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	25	15.97
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinMark Martin	33	13.9114.09
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	15.21
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Juan Pablo Montiya	28	12.41
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann	15	14.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	16	13.50
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jamie McMurray	16	15.29
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	3	15.15
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	3	16.00
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	18.18
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	15.76
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	3	16.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	38	19.82
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray	16	12.53

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