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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	28	11.72
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	1	15.09
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Clint Bowyer	1	16.66
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Landon Cassil	16	16.09
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	1	15.34
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jamie McMurray	29	16.25
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Clint Bowyer	1	15.44
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Trevor Bayne	15	13.56
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	29	20.84
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	1	17.31
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	David Ragan	28	11.94
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Gilliland	22	14.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Joey Logano	24	15.63
James Jones	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	24	13.66
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	1	12.47
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	1	13.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	20	16.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	David Ragan	28	15.03

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Good Sam Club 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Jimmie Johnson		12.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson		13.71
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick		12.32
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr		12.97
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kevin Harvick		13.97
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr		15.45
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kevin Harvick		13.29
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick		14.97
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray		11.52
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr		13.48
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards		14.68
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson		12.74
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch		11.42
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch		11.74
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson		12.74
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson		9.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson		12.55
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kevin Harvick		14.52

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega 2 - Good Sam Club 500

After this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, I think we will be able to confidently eliminate about half of the Chase field’s hopes for winning the championship, and maybe even more. The races at these super-speedways are nearly impossible to predict, so as I did in my previous Daytona and Talladega previews, I will be switching up the format for this week’s article. Although I view them as borderline worthless, there are two practice sessions scheduled for Friday afternoon and the starting lineup will be set on Saturday afternoon. The Good Sam Club 500 is set to start around 2:15 eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Talladega…The five-time champ Jimmie Johnson got a push by 4th-place finisher (and team-mate) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to get his first victory of this 2011 season and second at Talladega. Clint Bowyer, who led the most laps that day (38), finished runner-up, with Jeff Gordon ending up 3rd. Kevin Harvick, who started 38th that day, rounded out the top 5.

My Views On The Chasers:

Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl is actually one of the more consistent drivers when it comes to the restrictor plate race tracks. In the last eleven races at either Talladega or Daytona, Edwards has the best average finish of anyone in the series (13.5) and only one DNF. However, until his 6th-place finish at ‘Dega in April, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find Carl’s last top 10 here. His career average finish here of 20.9 is nothing stellar, but I think the #99 Ford should be in the top 10 by the end of the race on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick is always a good pick when it comes to the big tracks and his career average finish of 14.3 at Talladega backs that up. What’s even more impressive to me is that he doesn’t have one single DNF here in twenty-one career starts. Kevin won the April race in last season and is on a streak of three-straight top 5s at Talladega. He also has six top 10s in the last seven restrictor plate races.

Matt Kenseth - You won’t find Kenseth on my rosters this weekend, I’ll tell you that, even though I usually like the most recent winners when it comes to fantasy racing. He has just five top 10s in twenty-three career starts at Talladega and hasn’t finished there since this race in 2006.

Kyle Busch - Despite having the third-best average driver rating in the past five races at Talladega, Kyle Busch is pretty risky pick on the big tracks. His average finish in thirteen races here is 24.2, but he has led at least one lap in nine of the last ten. If he starts in the top ten on Sunday, though, I’d think about giving Busch a shot: last season he started 6th in the April race last season and finished 9th, won the April race in 2008 after starting 5th, and finished 11th in the October race in 2006 after starting 6th.

Tony Stewart - “Smoke” used to be an awesome pick when the series stopped at a restrictor plate track, but now I’d just put him in the “kind of good” category. He finished 17th here in April, and in the two Daytona races this season he ended up 13th and 11th. In those three races, though, Stewart has led a combined total of one lap. Since his win here in the October race in 2008, Tony hasn’t finished better than 16th. I think there are much better picks than “Smoke” this weekend.

Brad Keselowski - If “Bad Brad” wants to make it known that he’s serious about this championship run, he better have a good run on Sunday–and it’s not impossible that that will happen. As you may or may not remember, Keselowski made his first start at ‘Dega in 2009 driving the #09 car for Phoenix Racing. He started 9th in that race, and despite only leading one lap in that race, he led the most important: the final one. Since then, Brad has made four starts at ‘Dega and has ended up with two top 10s and has led at least three laps in all races. He struggled in the first two restrictor plate races of the 2011 season, but Keselowski finished 15th in the second Daytona race.

Kurt Busch - I’m assuming BK’s dancing partner on Sunday will be the elder Busch brother, so if one has a good race you can reasonably expect the other to as well. Kurt won both the Shootout as well as his Duel race in Daytona earlier this year and is considered by many as the best restrictor plate driver to never win a race. Over the last eleven races on them, Busch has the best average driver rating (96.4). He has completed 96.5% of the laps ran in his twenty-one starts at Talladega, which is very impressive.

Jimmie Johnson - I usually don’t like JJ at all in the spring race at Talladega (I actually had him on my Avoid list for the first race here, which he ended up winning) but the fall race is completely different. Johnson has four-straight top 10s in the October race here, and if he wants to win a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie will need a great run on Sunday, which is very possible.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - We all know the story of Junior at the restrictor plate race tracks. He pushed his team-mate, Jimmie Johnson, to the win here in April, and if they work together again on Sunday, I’m expecting top 5s out of both once again. Earnhardt has the best average driver rating (102.1) over the last five races here and he has just two finishes worse than 13th in the last seven races at Talladega. Junior’s average driver rating of 90.2 over the last eleven restrictor plate races is fourth-best in the series.

Ryan Newman - This is another reason I don’t like Tony Stewart this weekend: his team-mate, “The Rocketman.” Over the past five races at Talladega, Newman has an average finish (24.4) that is worse than Robby Gordon (23.8)…seriously. Ryan’s 3rd-place effort here in 2009 is his only bright spot in the last six races, as he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in the other five. I can say with near certainty that Newman will be out of championship contention once the race is over on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon - In the last five restrictor plate races, Gordon has notched four top 10s and has led laps in all five. At Talladega specifically, Jeff has finished in the top 10 in the last two races, but those are his only finishes better than 19th since he won both races here in 2007. Over his entire career here (thirty-seven races), Gordon has visited victory lane six times and has an average finish of 16.1.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is hit-or-miss at Talladega, so keep that in mind if you pick him this weekend. In eleven career starts here, has has notched four top 10s, but those are also Denny’s only top 20s here, bringing his average finish down to 18.7. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Hamlin has finished 21st, 23rd, and 13th.

The Non-Chasers I’m Keeping My Eye On:

Clint Bowyer - Clint won this race last season after starting 2nd and with his 2nd-place finish here in April, he now has three-straight top 10s at Talladega. What’s impressive to me, though, is that in the last eight races here, Bowyer has finished worse than 12th just once. He has the fifth-best average driver rating (88.6) over the last five races here.

Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne has two 2nd-place finishes to his name in fifteen career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but those are his only top 10s as well. However, you can’t overlook the fact that he has had some super fast Toyotas for the past few weeks. He’ll probably work with his team-mate, Brian Vickers, on Sunday, who since joining Red Bull Racing in 2007 has three finishes of 13th or better at Talladega, but also four finishes of 29th or worse.

Greg Biffle - The Biff’s stats at restrictor plate tracks won’t blow you away, but he’s quite consistent. In the last eleven races on them, Biffle has finished outside of the top 20 just once, although he has just two top 10s. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished worse than 19th since 2008 and has notched three top 10s in that five-race span.

David Ragan - Well in case you didn’t believe it before, the second Daytona race this season proved that Ragan is a legitimate contender at the restrictor plate tracks. At Talladega, David has an average finish of 17th in nine career starts and has notched three top 10s. He has the ninth-best average driver rating in the last five races here.

Juan Montoya - If you’re looking for a high risk, high reward driver, Montoya is your guy. In the last three Talladega races, Juan has two top 5s to his name, and he finished 2nd here in 2008. His career average finish of 16.4 here is actually tenth-best in the series. Also, over the last eleven restrictor plate races, Montoya has the second-best average finish (13.6) and six top 10s. He should be working with team-mate Jamie McMurray, who can get to the front at these tracks.

Joey Logano - Joey has just six top 10s this season and one of those came in the first race at ‘Dega, where he finished 10th after starting 36th. Surprisingly, though, Talladega is Logano’s second-best track on the circuit. In five career starts here, “Sliced Bread” has notched four top 10s and completed all but twelve laps. Who knows, maybe his 12th-place run last week in Charlotte will give the youngster some momentum heading into this weekend.

Trevor Bayne - We all know how Trevor won the Daytona 500 to kick of this 2011 season (as well as the ensuing Bayne-mania) but he finished 40th in his first start at ‘Dega and was out of the second Daytona race this year after just four laps. He should have the car to get a solid top 10 for fantasy owners on Sunday, but you better hope he doesn’t wreck.

David Gilliland - No, I’m not joking here. In the three restrictor plate races in 2011, Gilliland has started 39th, but he finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 9th-place effort at Talladega in April. In the second Daytona race, David finished 16th. What can I say, I guess the guy knows how to stay out of the wrecks.

Scouting Report: Talladega

How to make an informed pick at Daytona:

1) Starting with this years Bud Shootout we entered a new era of restrictor plate racing. The distinction between between what happened last year and what’s happening this year is tremendous. That’s why I think it’s really important to study the three plate races this year. That’s the main focus I used when I wrote my Talladega Fantasy Preview.

2) At restrictor plate tracks and others venues where the attrition rate is high I like to pick drivers who have momentum. Drivers who are in slumps are often “crash magnets” at Talladega.

3) Practice is going to be important this week. No one’s 100% certain how this race will play out because of the rules changes. One element you want to focus on in practice is who drivers will potentially be partnering up with.

4) There’s no need to focus on qualifying at all this week. Driving up the front at Talladega is an easy task.

Drivers to watch in the Talladega Good Sam Club 500:

Kevin Harvick – There’s not a safer pick you can make at Talladega then Kevin Harvick. In April Harvick finished 5th and worked heavily with Clint Bowyer. I expect this duo to work together again and have similar results. Another advantage for Harvick is that he’ll have three teammates who are all committed to helping him succeed. Last year at Talladega Harvick finished 1st and 2nd.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson won in April and he worked with none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Johnson has been an extremely safe pick in the Talladega Chase race for years now (4 consecutive top tens). His non-racing strategy until the end has really worked out well for him. Johnson might also be worth valuable qualifying points this week as well. In May he started second in what was a Hendrick 1-2-3-4 sweep of the top four spots on qualifying day.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski isn’t a one time wonder at Talladega. He also has two other top tens to his name. At tracks like Talladega everyone wants to partner up with someone who’s successful and I think more drivers than ever will be willing to help him out. Look for him to partner up with Kurt Busch. This duo will be formidable on Sunday and will certainly contend for the win.

Kurt Busch – In the three restrictor plate races this year Kurt Busch has the best driver rating (103.8) and he’s averaged 32.6 points a race. Penske is a two car team and as expected I’m projecting his draft partner will be Brad Keselowski. I’ve said this in probably all of my restrictor plate fantasy previews but Kurt Busch in the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race. During Speed Weeks he won the Bud Shootout but that doesn’t pay any points.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – How can anyone not like Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Talladega? It’s the patriotic thing to do. He hasn’t won since 2004 but he’s still a solid driver. One big plus about Junior is that he’ll most likely be working with Jimmie Johnson again and I don’t think he’ll have any problems. In April Junior started 4th.

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Talladega Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Loop Data From The Most Recent Talladega Race
• Drivers Talladega Averages Since 2009
• Past Race Winners / Pole Winners
• Entry List

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Tony Stewart
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Kyle Busch
8. Kurt Busch
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. David Ragan

Videos about what drivers are saying about Talladega:

• Jeff Gordon says drivers will have to swap positions more often at Talladega Superspeedway
• Harvick thinks cars will run closer together at Talladega because of the recent rule changes
• Jimmie Johnson believes there will be more passing at Talladega Superspeedway
• Matt Kenseth says you need a good partner at Talladega Superspeedway to succeed
• Jimmie Johnson says only practice can determine how different Talladega will be this time around

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Aaron’s 499 from Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Jamie McMurray	21	9.63
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	3	12.50
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Paul Menard	12	16.13
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	37	17.38
Eric McClung	KFFL	David Ragan	39	12.50
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	23	11.50
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	David Ragan	39	15.13
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	39	13.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Brian Vickers	38	14.63
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Trevor Bayne	40	22.50
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Joey Logano	10	14.38
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	3	6.63
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Ragan	39	10.75
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	23	16.50
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	3	8.38
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	7	9.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	David Ragan	39	12.88
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	3	15.63
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	David Ragan	39	13.88

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	14.13
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kevin Harvick	5	14.25
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	5	14.75
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	14.25
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	2	13.38
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	18.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	13.13
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	18	17.88
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	9.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	6	13.88
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	10.63
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	5	9.75
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	13.13
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	35	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	2	7.25
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kevin Harvick	5	10.25
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kevin Harvick	5	8.38
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	11.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	12.50

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega - Aaron’s 499

If last week’s race at Texas Motor Speedway bored you, I hope you are ready for some intense action this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway. In March, NASCAR decided that the size of the restrictor plates for this race would be reduced to slow down the cars and try to prevent the two-car hookups that we saw during the Daytona 500. They also implemented changes for those reasons at Daytona, but it wasn’t very effective. I personally liked the two-car drafts, but that’s just me. There are two practice sessions this week and they are both scheduled for Friday afternoon, with qualifying being held on Saturday. There will be no practice between qualifying and the drop of the green flag on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Talladega…Clint Bowyer edged his teammate Kevin Harvick for the win at “Hallowdega“. Juan Montoya, David Reutimann, and Joey Logano rounded out the top five in that race. Average practice speeds were actually a little telling on who had a good car, and you can see for yourself by clicking here. In the spring race last season, Kevin Harvick won (even though he led only two laps) and was followed to the finish by Jamie McMurray, Juan Montoya, Denny Hamlin, and Mark Martin. The complete results of the April race at ‘Dega can be found by clicking here.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Throw every statistic out the window this weekend. When the series comes to these superspeedways, I put very little effort into my fantasy rosters because, quite simply, anybody can win these races. It doesn’t matter if a driver is fastest in practice, and it doesn’t matter if they start up front at Talladega. Only one thing matters here: being at the right place at the right time at the finish. No one finishes up front at this track consistently, so make a roster and go with it. If you have a good week, congratulations; if not, join the crowd.

I typically don’t like writing previews and predictions for plate tracks because they are so unpredictable, so I’m going to change the format a bit, but just for this week. Here goes nothing.

Top Ten Ranking Entering The Aaron’s 499 (And Then Some):

1. Kevin Harvick - When I was looking at the stat sheet this week, one number jumped out at me the most: zero. That’s how many DNFs Harvick has at Talladega in twenty starts. He’s finished on the lead lap in fourteen of those twenty races as well. This is astounding to me, and as long as the Richard Childress Racing engines hold up this weekend, I think Harvick could get his third victory of the season. His average career finish here is 14.8 and last year he won the spring race while ending up an extremely close 2nd in the fall.

2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Momentum, momentum, momentum. Junior hasn’t finished lower than 12th since the Daytona 500, and as long as he doesn’t cause a wreck (or get caught up in one) this weekend, he will continue that streak. With a little bit of luck, he may even end that winless streak. Dale Jr. has finished 1st or 2nd at Talladega eight times in his career and won four straight races here from late 2001 through 2003. He’s becoming risky at the plate tracks lately, but he has led at least one lap in all but 2 of his 22 starts at ‘Dega and has had the best average driver rating at this track over the past two years.

3. Kurt Busch - If they can stay out of trouble, the Penske Racing duo of Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski should have a good day at Talladega on Sunday. Kurt hooked up with drafting partner Regan Smith in Daytona and got a top five finish, and that could very well happen again. He has a knack for missing the big wreck–just three DNFs in twenty starts–and posted seven straight top 10s here from 2004 to 2007 (not an easy task). Kurt has finished 8th and 6th in the past two spring races at Talladega.

4. Juan Montoya - There are just two drivers that have posted top 20s in each of the last four races at Talladega, and Montoya is one of them. He’s been pretty consistent here, with just two finishes outside of the top 20 in eight starts, and finished third in both races at this track in 2010. He also finished 6th in the Daytona 500 back in February. He’s led at least one lap in every start at Talladega since his rookie year, so you know Juan knows how to get to the front here.

5. Clint Bowyer - It’s a good week to load up on the RCR cars–just hope their engines last. Bowyer is the most recent winner at Talladega and his average finish over the past seven races here has been 12th. Surprisingly, though, he’s only led in three of his ten starts here, but that doesn’t worry me too much. As long as he doesn’t run into any problems on Sunday (Bowyer has four finishes of 35th or worse) he should be a lock for a top ten.

6. Kyle Busch - Nobody has led more laps at Talldega over the past four races here than Rowdy Busch (with 88). The next closest to that number is Jamie McMurray with 63. The problem with picking Busch, though, is that he doesn’t get the finishes he deserves here. He won at this track in 2008 but that is his only top five here in twelve career starts. His starts here since his win have given him finishes of 25th, 9th, 15th, 25th, and 15th, so at least he is a little consistent. Kyle finished 8th at Daytona earlier this year.

7. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac has just one top ten finish this season but is coming into a track where has has found success before. He won in the 2009 fall race here and crossed the finish line 2nd in the spring race last season. McMurray looked strong in Daytona last February but was down a cylinder and finished 17th that day. He has just six top 10s in seventeen starts here but has to be considered a threat whenever the series comes to the plate tracks.

8. Jeff Burton - Like I said before, as long as the RCR engines hold up, expect a good day from that group. Burton hasn’t had a top ten this season but I think that could change on Sunday. He’s posted two top 15s in the past three races (Fontana and Texas) and has three top 10s in his past five starts at Talladega. The #31 Chevrolet has also had the second-best average driver rating over the past two years at this giant track.

9. David Ragan - I told you to expect a top ten out of David last week in Texas and I’m telling you now to expect another this week in Talladega. He’s made eight starts at this track and owns three top six finishes and an average finish of 14.3. Ragan has just two finishes outside of the top 20 at this track, and one of those was a 21st. Don’t forgot, David almost won the Daytona 500 in February.

10. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski got his first Sprint Cup Series win at this track and has led at least one lap in every start he has made here. He had a slip up last spring at this track but finished 10th in the fall race, giving him three top 10 finishes in his four career starts here. His career average finish of 13.3 is actually tied for best in the series (counting drivers who have made at least four starts at this track).

The “Others” That Could Just As Easily Get A Top Ten:

Joey Logano - The other aforementioned driver with a 13.3 career average finish is young Joey. Like Keselowski, Logano has three top tens in four starts and has led in every attempt he has made at this track. Will the Joe Gibbs Racing engines hold up this week, though?

Brian Vickers - Vickers won here in 2006 by wrecking his then-teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., but a win is a win. He has three top 13 finishes in his past five starts at Talladega.

Whoever Is Driving The #09 Car - As I’m writing this, I can’t find an entry list for the race this weekend, so I’m not sure who will be in this car. However, don’t overlook them this week. Bill Elliott finished 12th in the Daytona 500 with this Chevrolet and Mike Bliss got a top ten in the spring race here last season in this car.

Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl actually has the best average finish at restrictor plate tracks over the past two years, but the success hasn’t exactly found him at Talladega. Edwards’ last top ten at this track came in 2006 but he finished 2nd in the Daytona 500, so there is some hope to break that streak on Sunday.

Greg Biffle - “The Biff” actually has the 2nd-best average finish at Talladega over the past two years with 11.8. He’s the other driver that hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in those four races. The Fords have looked good all season (especially at Daytona) and I don’t think that will change this weekend.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has the 5th-best average driver rating over the past two years at this track but has had his share of problems that has brought down his average finish. He’s made ten starts here and has led at least one lap in every single one of them, though, so you know he knows how to get to the front. Hamlin finished 4th and 9th at Talladega in 2010.

Regan Smith - There are many C-list drivers that could be valuable this week, you just have to pick the right one. Smith was super fast in Daytona and got a 7th-place finish to show for it. He finished 12th in the fall race here last season, and that is also his career best finish here.

Paul Menard - With the way his season is going, you should expect Menard to finish better than his 25th-place average finish at this track. He got a top ten in Daytona in February and posted a 2nd-place finish here in 2008 while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

Bobby Labonte - Don’t forget who finished 4th in the Daytona 500. Labonte’s most recent top ten at Talladega came in 2009 while driving for under-funded (in my opinion) TRG Motorsports. If he can get a top ten with them, he can surely pull one off with JTG Daugherty Racing. If he’s in the right place at the right time like he was in February, you know never know.

Trevor Bayne - You didn’t think I was going to leave this kid off of my preview, did you? With as fast as his car was in Daytona, I expect drivers to be lining up to draft with him this weekend. If Bayne can stay out of the wrecks, a top fifteen would be highly likely (at least).

These Drivers Can’t Even Find Luck At Talladega:

A.J. Allmendinger - David Gilliland and Robby Gordon have better average driver ratings at ‘Dega than The Dinger does, so stay away from the #43 Ford this weekend. His best finish during his career at this track has been 19th and all of his other starts have ended with mid-thirties results.

Mark Martin - I’ve been burned by Martin for most of this season, but that will soon come to an end. I don’t like how this team is racing at all and I plan on avoiding him until they can find some consistency and run well. He has Junior’s old crew chief, so he may have a good run at Talladega, but he’s too risky for me–even at this track.

Marcos Ambrose - He finished 4th in his first start at this track but since then (three starts) he hasn’t finished better than 34th. Ambrose ended up 37th in the Daytona 500 this year.

My normal format will return next week, but if you like this format, it will be back for the next plate race in July. These races are so unpredictable that they are impossible to predict, but I will still put up my post-happy hour predictions on ifantasyrace.com on Saturday. Again, don’t put too much time into your fantasy rosters this week because history really doesn’t matter much here. Drivers can get an awesome finish just by being in the right place at the right time, even if they don’t have a great car. Finally, if you’re not a member at NASCAR Nation, be sure to sign up.

Scouting Report: Talladega

How to pick drivers at Talladega:

1) History at Talladega matters. Some drivers have the knack for restrictor plate racing and some don’t. For those who don’t pass on picking them immediately.

2) When you pick drivers for Talladega you want to make sure they’ve shown the ability to avoid problems on the track in recent races. There’s no need to pick drivers who are “crash magnets” at Talladega. In NASCAR there’s both positive and negative momentum. What you specifically want to avoid at Talladega is negative momentum. Don’t expect drivers with negative momentum to have a good day.

At Talladega you want to pick drivers who’ve shown themselves to have the “Driver Survivor Intangible”.

3) Practice does matter at Talladega, but just a little bit. At practice you want to look for drivers who practice the 1-2 draft, are comfortable in their cars, and are displaying a positive attitude. Drivers who are negative at this track often end up on the wrecker.

4) Recent similar track performances should also be taken into account when you pick drivers for Talladega. As I said before some drivers have a knack for plate racing.

5) Qualifying doesn’t mean a single thing at Talladega, even in terms of pit stall selection. For those who try to complicate things on race weekend these pit boxes are huge.

Ten drivers to watch:

1) Kevin Harvick – Safest pick by far this week. He’s the defending champion, he avoids trouble on the track (Driver Survivor Intangible), and he has zero DNF’s at Talladega.

2) Clint Bowyer – Bowyer won last fall and in five out of the last six Talladega races he’s finished 12th or better. He’s also entering the race with momentum which I feel is important for Talladega.

3) Kurt Busch – Consistent front-runner who’s due for a points win on a plate track. In the spring race he’s finished in the top ten in five out of the last six races.

4) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Led laps in 20 out of his 22 Talladega races. Look for this five-time winner to be strong Sunday.

5) Juan Pablo Montoya – Finished 3rd in both races last year. His career best Talladega finish is 2nd.

6) Carl Edwards – Finished second in the Daytona 500 and was in the lead in 2009 until Keselowski sent him sailing into the fence.

7) Jamie McMurray – He’s as solid as they come on plate tracks. Last spring he finished second and in the 2009 fall race he won.

8 ) Matt Kenseth – He’s very underrated at both plate tracks despite his Daytona 500 win. In the mid 2000′s he was as good as anyone on the circuit on these wild card tracks.

9) Ryan Newman – Newman’s batting nearly .500 in terms of getting top tens at Talladega (8 for 18). He’s known for flipping but he can get the job done.

10) Denny Hamlin – He’s perhaps the best two car break away driver and last year he finished in the top ten in both races.

TheSpread.com Odds to win at Talladega :

Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Kyle Busch 10/1, Kurt Busch 11/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11/1, Clint Bowyer 15/1, Denny Hamlin 15/1, Carl Edwards 15/1, Jimmie Johnson 15/1, Jeff Gordon 15/1, Jamie McMurray 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	2	14.30
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	31	11.58
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	2	10.70
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Clint Bowyer	1	11.58
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	25	13.30
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kevin Harvick	2	10.45
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	9	10.91
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	13.18
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kevin Harvick	2	13.76
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	30	12.06
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	39	10.76
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	7	14.30
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	31	12.61
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	25	13.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	13.58
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	2	10.97
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Tony Stewart	31	12.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	7	11.61
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	7	15.06

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	36	15.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	36	13.79
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	36	19.42
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	39	11.61
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	39	15.70
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Brad KeselowskiDale Earnhardt Jr	1039	14.2414.42
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	36	15.21
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	39	11.94
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jamie McMurray	36	14.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	36	13.42
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jamie McMurray	36	15.27
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jamie McMurray	36	15.52
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	39	16.39
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	36	18.27
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jamie McMurray	36	15.39
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jamie McMurray	36	16.70
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	36	19.27
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	David Ragan	21	12.42

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