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NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Races

This table shows the average finish of 37 drivers at the four races restrictor plate races held at Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway during the 2009 season.

	Daytona 1	Talladega 1	Daytona 2	Talladega 2	AVERAGE
Elliot Sadler	5	19	10	9	10.8
Brad Keswlowski		1	24	8	11.0
David Ragan	6	12	13	17	12.0
Greg Biffle	20	7	18	4	12.3
Matt Kenseth	1	17	8	24	12.5
Kurt Busch	10	6	5	30	12.8
Jeff Burton	28	10	16	5	14.8
Carl Edwards	18	24	4	14	15.0
Marcos Ambrose	17	4	6	34	15.3
Juan Pablo Montoya	14	20	9	19	15.5
Tony Stewart	8	23	1	35	16.8
Brian Vickers	39	8	7	13	16.8
Reed Sorenson	9	11	33	16	17.3
Jimmie Johnson	31	30	2	6	17.3
Michael Waltrip	7	21	37	7	18.0
Joey Logano	43	9	19	3	18.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	27	2	39	11	19.8
Bobby Labonte	22	28	21	10	20.3
Kasey Kahne	29	36	15	2	20.5
Clint Bowyer	4	39	29	12	21.0
Regan Smith	21	15	12	39	21.8
Kevin Harvick	2	38	26	21	21.8
A.J. Allmendinger	3	35	17	33	22.0
Denny Hamlin	26	22	3	38	22.3
Casey Mears	15	16	34	25	22.5
Jamie McMurray	37	42	11	1	22.8
Ryan Newman	36	3	20	36	23.8
Kyle Busch	41	25	14	15	23.8
John Andretti	19	27	27	23	24.0
Scott Speed	35	5	31	27	24.5
Jeff Gordon	13	37	28	20	24.5
Martin Truex Jr.	11	33	25	31	25.0
David Reutimann	12	26	36	26	25.0
Paul Menard	38	13	23	42	29.0
Robby Gordon	34	29	22	32	29.3
Mark Martin	16	43	38	28	31.3
Sam Hornish Jr.	32	34	32	40	34.5

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition Week 8

Talladega

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Kasey Kahne: 9th to 7th	Biggest Drop This Week: Ryan Newman: 8th to 10th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 6 Wins, 22 Top Tens Jimmie Johnson has absolutely dominated the 2009 Chase. At Talladega he most likely sealed the deal with many of his main Chase competitors getting collected up in the "Big One".

Rank: 2nd Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 23 Top Tens Jeff Gordon may not win the championship this year but he does have the most top fives and top tens in the series. In the end of the day people will only remember who won the championship.

Rank: 3rd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 4 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 19 Top Tens Mark Martin was confident that he wouldn't wreck at Talladega but unfortunately his wishful thinking didn't do the trick. Martin sometimes uses reverse psychology in interviews, I remember his bad 2006 Lowes wreck and he said he was having fun.

Rank: 4th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens Juan Pablo Montoya is 2009's version of Clint Bowyer's Cindrella Chase season. He is the little guy who no one ever gave a chance. Let's hope that his Chase momentum continues into next season.

Rank: 5th Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 6 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch - 1 Win, 18 Top Tens Kurt Busch had a rough day at Talladega. He had a flat tire early and went down two laps. The new NASCAR wave around rule is what really saved his day. Now the big question surrounding him is when will he get a new crew chief? Will it be this year?

Rank: 6th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 5 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 22 Top Tens If NASCAR was still under the old points system I read that Jimmie Johnson would now be ahead of Tony Stewart by just 7 points. That sounds more exciting then Johnson's full race advantage he now has over his competitors.

Rank: 7th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 9 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 14 Top Tens Kasey Kahne's main goal this season is now to stay in the top 10 in points to ensure that he'll get an invitation to the awards banquet this year. In order for Kahne to accomplish that goal a good run at Texas is a must for the 9 team.

Rank: 8th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 7 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 17 Top Tens Hamlin had a good run like he usually does at Talladega but this team never finishes races there. Hamlin was probably lucky to have blown up other wise he most likely would've been a victim of Brad Kesolowski again.

Rank: 9th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 10 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle - 9 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens Out of all the drivers who survived the "Big One" Greg Biffle is the last driver who I thought would be spared from the carnage at Talladega. Many of the historically unlucky Talladega drivers had good days.

Rank: 10th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 8 Change: -2 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens If your a NASCAR driver who can't win the race and you want airtime then I would recommend you do what Newman did. He's now one up on Carl Edwards in the flipping column for the year.

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens I really think the Chase somehow needs a mechanism to eliminate drivers. Edwards doesn't even have a top 5 and Vickers doesn't have a top 10. I personally think it would've been more beneficial for this team to miss the Chase.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top Tens I wonder if this team will be able to bounce back in 2010. Before the Chase started Vickers was one of the hottest drivers in the series, now he's lucky to be locked in the top 12.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Amp Energy 500 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	35	8.22
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	30	8.53
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	4	9.84
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Brian Vickers	13	10.25
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	20	10.53
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	35	10.63
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	30	10.75
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	20	10.97
Eric Brewer		David Ragan	17	11.59
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Jeff Gordon	20	11.91
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	20	12.06
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	14	12.13
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	30	12.44
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	15	12.59
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch	15	13.16
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	35	16.38
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	11	18.28

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Amp Energy 500 at Talladega

The racing at Talladega Superspeedway is often times unpredictable and your fantasy lineup should reflect that this week. I’ve assembled another Similar Track Tool showing the best average finishers at the three restrictor plate races held earlier this season, Daytona’s February and July events and the April race at Talladega in between. Click here to use the Talladega/Daytona similar track tool.

After reviewing the table several things jump out: Kurt Busch is the only driver to finish in the top-10 at all three plate races this season. David Ragan finished 12th or better in all three. Marcos Ambrose has an average finish of 9.0; Elliot Sadler had an average finish 11.3. Reed Sorenson finished ninth and 11th in the first two plate races, Brian Vickers finished eighth and seventh in the last two.

Plate racing and high speeds lead to damaged race cars, a fantasy lineup can account for this with some changeups in driver selection. Owners in allocation formats, such as Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing, can conserve remaining starts of top drivers by going with deeper picks for what always turns out to be a crapshoot of a race. For example, addition to having solid finishes in plate races David Ragan and teammate Matt Kenseth, winner of the this year’s Daytona 500, will be using Ford’s new FR9 engine. Either one is a good gamble this week.

For those hunting bonus points for top qualifiers I’ve added my top-three qualifiers to the weekly preview.
Chasing the pole at Talladega:

1. Martin Truex Jr…. Won the pole at the first Daytona race this year. Started third at Talladega in April and 10th at last year’s AMP Energy 500. Also won the pole at Atlanta and has started inside the top-five in two of the last three races.
2. Jeff Gordon… Started second and third for the Daytona races; 14th at Talladega. Has qualified inside the top-10 for eight straight races.
3. Tony Stewart… Won the pole at the second Daytona race, fifth in the first one but 23rd at April race Talladega. Has started fifth in two of the last four races.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Won at Talladega in ‘06, runner-up in both ‘07 races. Average finish of 11.0 last year. DNF (crash) in April race, average running position of 10th. Runner-up at Daytona in July. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Six-time winner at Talladega (’07 sweep, ‘05, ‘04, ‘00, ‘96). Won both ‘07 races, average finish of 31.3 in the three races since. Average finish 26.0 in plate races this season. Y!-A2
3. Kurt Busch… Twelve top-10 finishes at Talladega in 17 career starts, led at least one lap in 13. Streak of seven straight finishes of eighth or better from ‘04-’07. Finished sixth in April race. Y!-B1
4. Tony Stewart… Won last year’s AMP Energy 500, eighth-place 10/07. Finished 23rd in April race at Talladega. Won at Daytona in July. Y!-B2
5. Denny Hamlin… DNF (crash) in last year’s AMP Energy 500, finished 22nd in April race at Talladega– had an average running position of 10th. Finished third (4/08), fourth (10/07) and has led laps in all seven career starts at ‘Dega. Finished third at Daytona in July. Y!-B3
6. Juan Pablo Montoya… Won the pole in the April race at Talladega, finished 20th. Runner-up 4/08. Led at least one lap in three straight Talladega races. Y!-B4
7. Ryan Newman… Minus last year’s DNF at Talladega, average finish of 6.3 since ‘07. Finished third in April race, led 10 laps. Y!-B5
8. Mark Martin… Two-winner at Talladega (’97, ‘95). Started seventh, DNF (crash) in April race. Bad luck in the last two plate races: 43th and 38th. Y!-A3
9. Kyle Busch… Won in ‘08 at Talladega. Finished 15th in last year’s AMP Energy 500, led 20 laps. 25th in April race, led 42 laps. Y!-A4
10. Clint Bowyer… Started fifth, completed only eight laps in March race at Talladega, average finish of 8.3 in the three previous races at ‘Dega.
11. Kasey Kahne… Average finish of 14.0 in ‘07 races at Talladega, 31.6 in the three races since. Y!-B6
12. Brian Vickers… Won in ‘06 at Talladega, laps led in seven straight starts. Five finishes of eighth or better over the last seven races at ‘Dega. Y!-B7
13. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 5.0 in ‘06 races at Talladega, 24.8 in the five races since.
14. Carl Edwards… DNF (crash) in two straight races at Talladega. Finished fourth at Daytona in July.
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five-winner at Talladega (’04, ‘03, ‘02 sweep, ‘01). Won four straight, 10/01 through 4/03. Only one top-fives since, runner-up in April race. Four top-15s, four DNFs in the nine races since, laps led in eight. Y!-B8
16. Greg Biffle… DNFs in five of the last seven races at Talladega. Started second, finished seventh in April race, both career bests.
17. David Ragan… Average finish of 3.5 in ‘08 races at Talladega. Started 10th, finished 12th in April race.
18. Joey Logano… Started 22nd, finished ninth and led four laps in April race, first career start at Talladega. Finished third in the April Nationwide race, second in last year’s ARCA race.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Started 34th, finished fourth in April race, first career start at Talladega. Y!-C1
20. Casey Mears… Average finish of 10.8 over the last four races at Talladega. Finished 16th in the April race.
21. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 8.6 over the last three races at Talladega, led laps in all three. Finished 10th in April race.
22. Elliott Sadler… Has led laps in 13 straight races at Talladega. Finished 10th in last year’s AMP Energy 500, 19th in April race.
23. Brad Keselowski… Won 4/09 race, first career start at Talladega. Started ninth, won the April race- only led on the final lap. Finished ninth in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
24. David Reutimann… Three DNFs in five career starts at Talladega, average finish of 23.0 in the two completed races.
25. Paul Menard… Finished 14th 4/08, runner-up in last year’s AMP Energy 500. Finished 13th in April race at Talladega, led laps in all three races.
26. Kevin Harvick… Has not finished better than 20th in the last four races at Talladega.
27. Regan Smith… Average finish of 19.5 in four career starts at Talladega. Has started fourth and sixth in his last two attempts. Finished 15th in April race. Y!-C3
28. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘98. DNF (crash) in April race at Talladega. Finished sixth in last year’s AMP Energy 500. Y!-C4
29. Michael Waltrip… Won in ‘03. Has led at least one lap in three straight races at Talladega. Average finish of 22.3 over the last races at ‘Dega.
30. Martin Truex Jr…. Has crashed five times in nine career start at Talladega and in three straight.
31. AJ Allmendinger… DNF (crash) 4/08 race at Talladega. Started 38th, finished 35th in April race.
32. Jamie McMurray… DNFs (crash) in three of the last six races at Talladega.
33. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 9.5 in ‘08 races at Talladega. DNF (crash) in April race.
34. Reed Sorenson… Started 41st, finished 11th in April race at Talladega. DNF (engine) and 23rd-place finish last year.
35. Scott Speed… Started eighth, finished fifth and led a lap in April race, first career start at Talladega. Finished seventh and 23rd in two career ARCA races at ‘Dega.
36. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started fourth, led three laps in April race at Talladega, DNF (crash).
37. Max Papis… Stared 42rd, finished 18th in April race, first career start at Talladega.
38. John Andretti… Started 40th, finished 27th in April race, first start at Talladega since ‘07.
39. David Stremme… DNFs (crash) in three of his last five starts at Talladega.
40. Robert Richardson Jr…. No career Cup starts at Talladega. Average finish of 18.0 in three career Nationwide starts at ‘Dega.
41. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Talladega. Started 24th, finished 13th in ‘05 ARCA race at ‘Dega.
42. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Average start of 8.3, finish of 16.6 in last three starts at Talladega.
43. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. DNF (engine) in last year’s AMP Energy 500.
44. Tony Raines… Likely start and park. DNF (crash) in last year’s AMP Energy 500.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table

This table designed primarily to help fantasy NASCAR owners with deciding on how to spend their remaining driver starts as we progress through the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The table ranks the 26 most relevant drivers by their average finish at the eight Chase tracks that held their first Cup event earlier in the season.

	Loudon	Dover	Fontana	Lowe’s	Martinsville	Talladega	Texas	Phoenix	AVG
Tony Stewart	5	2	8	19	3	23	4	2	8.25
Jimmie Johnson	9	1	9	13	1	30	2	4	8.63
Kurt Busch	3	5	5	34	18	6	8	3	10.25
Greg Biffle	18	3	4	20	28	7	3	5	11.00
David Reutimann	4	18	14	1	20	26	11	8	12.75
Ryan Newman	29	8	28	2	6	3	15	16	13.38
Carl Edwards	19	7	7	4	26	24	10	10	13.38
Matt Kenseth	22	4	1	10	23	17	5	27	13.63
Denny Hamlin	15	36	6	11	2	22	12	6	13.75
Jeff Gordon	2	26	2	14	4	37	1	25	13.88
Kasey Kahne	10	6	12	7	19	36	19	13	15.25
Kyle Busch	7	23	3	6	24	25	18	17	15.38
Juan Montoya	12	30	11	8	12	20	7	24	15.50
Mark Martin	14	10	40	17	7	43	6	1	17.25
Joey Logano	1	15	26	9	32	9	30	21	17.88
Brian Vickers	35	25	10	5	33	8	16	19	18.88
Jeff Burton	31	16	32	25	15	10	9	15	19.13
Sam Hornish Jr.	8	13	23	16	34	34	17	9	19.25
Casey Mears	11	9	24	33	21	16	21	20	19.38
Marcos Ambrose	23	20	22	26	14	4	41	14	20.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	13	12	39	40	8	2	20	31	20.63
Clint Bowyer	20	11	19	36	5	39	22	26	22.25
Jamie McMurray	33	14	16	21	10	42	38	11	23.13
Martin Truex Jr.	37	21	27	23	29	33	25	7	25.25
AJ Allmendinger	32	29	29	32	9	35	34	35	29.38
Kevin Harvick	34	17	38	41	11	38	27	30	29.50

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	–23	8.4
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	– 6	9.3
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	–23	9.6
Ryan Rantz		Tony Stewart	–23	10.1
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	–23	11
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	–37	11.7
Darren Fauth	DarrenFauth.com	Kurt Busch	– 6	12.3
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	– 6	12.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	–30	12.4
Eric Brewer		Tony Stewart	–23	12.5
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	– 6	13.1
Mike Maruska			–44	13.2
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch	–25	15.3
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	KurtBusch	–  6	15.9
Jeff Gutowski			–44	16.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	–25	16.8
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	–23	17
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kasey Kahne	–36	18.4
Eric McClung	KFFL Fantasy NASCAR Blog	Jeff Gordon	–37	19.4
Lori Munro	RaceTalkRadio.com		–44	20.3

New On Pit Row

We’re pretty excited about some new additions to OnPitRow.com and I haven’t done a very good job of getting the word out. So pay attention. My job depends on it.

We have added some stats for fantasy racing players. These NASCAR fantasy racing stats are almost to the point of overkill and won’t be for everyone. But if you want to dig deep into past performance of specific drivers and particular race track stats for fantasy racing, check out our - still developing - drivers pages. You can view - and download - a complete set of NASCAR Loop data stats for any driver in our One and Done fantasy NASCAR pool. More content will be added to those pages soon. Watch this space, as they say. Here is David Ragan’s page for example.

And we have track stats for NASCAR fantasy gamers too. Check out the Phoenix International Raceway page for 40 pages of NASCAR Loop stats on PIR alone. The Talladega Superspeedway page is available too. As with the drivers stat pages, we will be adding more fantasy racing stats and information soon.

On the video front, check out our Bench Racing TV page when you have a chance. We’re posting Mindy Monday’s latest Monday Morning Crew Chief video there each week along with any other cool stuff we find. The folks at Shell Gasolines sent us an early copy of Kevin Harvick’s Old west Showdown spoof, which is now all over the place. But when we get them, we’ll post them for you.

Finally, if you haven’t noticed yet, the ON PIT ROW radio show is now available On Demand. We are finally hosting our own archived shows right here at OnPitRow.com on the Listen Live page. For a long time, ON PIT ROW’s web home was at RaceTalkRadio and we will always value that relationship. But we’ve wanted to host our own from the time we first started OnPitRow.com.

Stay tuned ’cause there’s more to come but if there’s anything that you want to see or hear, let us know. Thanks for joining us On Pit Row.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Photo credit: Ring - or Round Girl Jen by BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

BethAnne Does ‘Dega

A year ago on February 21st I attended the Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure at Talladega Superspeedway. I won the 3 lap ride through our fantasy racing game and upgraded it to 6 lap drive.

Coming up on the anniversary of the event, I was looking fondly at the pictures taken and was surprised to see thatthe instructors and counselors in the pictures all seemed to be as into working there as much as we enjoyed playing there. This realization added a new level of fun to the whole experience and I will always remember it fondly. As I said to one of my buddies yesterday, Yes, I would do it again in a heartbeat!

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Chevrolet holds the edge at Talladega

Ken Shrader started the domination of Chevrolet at Talladega in 1988.

But it has been the Chevys of Dale Earnhardt and then his race team that has held a lock on the longest oval on the NASCAR circuit.  Twenty eight wins in the forty races since Shrader started the trend gives the Bowtie Brigade seventy percent of the wins since that July day in 1988.

Only eight Fords, one Pontiac and one Toyota have won in the same twenty years time span.  Kyle Busch holds the lone Toyota victory from earlier this year.  Only two of the Fords have come from a team that has cars in the Chase.  Mark Martin owns the two wins for Roush-Fenway Racing. The most Ford wins com from Yates Racing cars that are not involved in the post-season.  The remaining two came from the Blue Ovals fielded by Junior Johnson.

Those Ford numbers don’t bode well for the Roush-Fenway entries of Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards or Matt Kenseth.

The late Dale Earnhardt owns eight of the 28 wins, or 28 percent, but a full 100% of the wins from Richard Childress Racing .  Rick Hendrick owned cars have won ten races mostly with Jeff Gordon behind the wheel.

No Chrysler product has seen victory lane since Dave Marcis did it in a Dodge in August of 1976.

When looking for a favorite at the unpredictable superspeedway, look no further that Chevy drivers, especially Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Both drivers are in desperate need of a win to get their Chse hopes back.

photo credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Talladega Superspeedway

So last week wasn’t quite a bust for me, with my best bets - sure thing Greg Biffle, dark horse Jeff Gordon, and sleeper Clint Bowyer - finishing 3rd, 4th, and 12th, respectively. My lead picks - Tony Stewart at New Hampshire, and Biffle at both Dover and Kansas - have finished 8th, 1st, and respectively, scoring 502 points between them. In other words, if I was in the Chase, I’d be fourth right now, 73 points behind Jimmie Johnson in first.

Talladega, however, offers the biggest challenge for any race forecaster in the entire Chase. A driver can go from 3rd to 30th in half a lap, or the exact opposite. Everyone knows about the Big One, a 20-plus car wreck that more often than not eliminates one of the sport’s top drivers from contention, especially late in the race. In other words, this weekend is a crapshoot. Before picking anybody to win, have a look at the speed charts from every practice, go with a gut feeling, and wear your lucky underwear - you’ll need it. Just don’t drop a deuce and have to wash all the luck out of it.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Talladega:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson’s got momentum on his side, the top cars in the garage, an average start of 8.2 (so you know he’s fast here), and only one start in which he hasn’t led a lap, when his engine blew up in fall 2002. He’s almost a lock - as much as any driver can be at Talladega. Any questions?

2. Carl Edwards: Come Chase time, Edwards does well at Talladega: the past three years, he’s finished 5th, 9th, and 14th in this race (although that 9th came in 2006, when he missed the 10-man cutoff). Despite two engine failures, Edwards has never retired from a race due to an accident. Given his recent momentum, with seven finishes of 3rd or better from Indianapolis to now, don’t expect Cousin Carl to slow down any on Sunday.

3. Greg Biffle: Biff’s never finished better than 13th at Talladega in 2005, even when he hasn‘t gotten caught up in wrecks. He’s led 19 laps at the track in his Cup career. And somehow he’s excited for this race. Biffle’s stated that he’s going to hang around Johnson and Edwards all race to minimize any potential losses in the standings, but expect him to try to break away and lead a few laps if it’ll help him in the points.

4. Jeff Burton: In 29 career starts at Talladega, Burton’s only crashed out twice - and one of those times was his track debut in 1994. His 10 top 10s at the track for his career rank tied for third of all Chase drivers, but he only has two top 5s at the track, in 2001 and 2006. Burton’s almost certain not to wreck, however, so he’s a reliable if not spectacular choice.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy’s one of the few top-caliber drivers who can say he’s never had a day completely ruined by getting caught up in the Big One. As such, he has an average finish of 14.3 at Talladega in 15 starts. The only Chaser with more than five seasons’ experience to finish every race he’s started at the track, Harvick should bring the car home in one piece on Sunday, with a top 10 finish very plausible (7 in his career).

6. Jeff Gordon: Jeff won both races here last season. He’s in dire need of a win this year, but after only finishing 19th at ‘Dega in the series’ spring visit, he‘s not a shoo-in. In 31 starts, however, Gordon’s finished in the top 10 16 times (with six wins) and crashed out only three times. He’s due, and this is a track that Gordon’s found more success on than a lot of drivers, so it’s possible that Gordon can find victory lane this weekend.

7. Clint Bowyer: When Clint completes every lap at Talladega (his last 2 starts at the track, in last year’s Chase and earlier this year), his average finish is 10.0. When he doesn’t (his first 3 starts at the track), his average finish is 36.7. If he finishes the race, he’ll do just fine, but not much more than that.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: From 2001 to 2004, Junebug’s worst finish at Talladega was 8th. Twice he finished 2nd. The other five times, he won. In the spring, he led 46 laps and finished 10th. Junior’s not a sure thing to win this weekend, though, as he hasn’t won here since 2004 and the team is using a backup car due to a nightmare practice. On the other hand, it should be noted that, as DEI were the kings of the restrictor plate in the early 2000s, so too Hendrick has been in the latter half of this decade.

9. Matt Kenseth: When Matt’s on at Talladega, he’s on (67 laps led with an average finish of 6.0 from 2005 to 2006). When he catches a bad break, however, he’s gone (5 finishes outside of the top 20, including his last two starts). An interesting note, however: Each time Matt’s finished inside the top 10 at Kansas, he’s also led laps and finished decently at Talladega. Matt finished 5th last weekend.

10. Denny Hamlin: Denny’s finished in the top 5 twice at Talladega, a 4th in fall 2007 and a 3rd earlier this year. In the three races before that, though, he finished 22nd, 21st, and 21st. Hamlin’s capable of running up front at Talladega, though, after leading at least one lap in all five of his starts. If Denny’s timing is on, we could see the No. 11 surprise a lot of folks by winding up in Victory Lane.

11. Tony Stewart: Smoke’s 13.9 average finish here is tops of all Chase contenders. He also led 61 laps here in the spring before an accident relegated him to 38th place. Tony lost a lot of momentum after finishing 40th at Kansas, but last year he rebounded from another poor Kansas run to finish 8th at ‘Dega. Keep in mind, Stewart’s only led 36 laps in the past 12 races, and didn’t have too much momentum to begin with. Don’t expect a surprise victory, but Stewart should be there in the end.

12. Kyle Busch: With career finishes of 41st, 33rd, 32nd, 11th, 37th, 36th, and 1st, it’s not hard to pick out the outlier in Busch’s ‘Dega stats. Forget the massive streak of bad luck the past few weeks; Busch is too accident prone here in the first place. Of course, I could be wrong, and he could break out this weekend and win (his only win here was this year), but all the signs point otherwise. Sorry, Kyle.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Johnson, plain and simple. You can’t argue with momentum, horsepower, and flat-out talent. In the midst of a nine-race top 10 streak, Harvick also has the potential to put Richard Childress Racing in victory lane. As for a dark horse, look no further than the momentum-charged Biffle, who sounds legitimately excited for this race, despite his track record. Remember, he didn’t have too much going for him at Loudon, either.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

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