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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

Fantasy NASCAR Racing Preview: Shelby American 400 at Las Vegas

As the first of 10 races at 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, the results from Las Vegas Motor Speedway will preview what is to come next week at Atlanta Motor Speedway and perhaps beyond. After this stretch of races are three races on short and/or flat tracks before heading to Texas Motor Speedway for another intermediate course.

In all, there are seven 1.5 mile tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule. Three feature 24 degree banking in the corners (Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte Motor Speedway) and each hold two races a piece. Las Vegas, Chicagoland Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway all fall into the “other” grouping of 1.5 tracks. Each holds one race each which are spread out on the schedule. At 20 degrees in the corners, LVMS features the most banking among them which was part of the redesign for the 2007 season.

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Las Vegas, Chicagoland, Kansas and Homestead-Miami [Low-banked 1.5 mile tracks]

Chasing the pole at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

1. Kyle Busch… Has won two straight poles at LVMS.
2. Kurt Busch… Started second at LVMS last year, 5.7 career average start. Only driver to start inside the Top Five at Fontana, Las Vegas and Atlanta early last year.
3. Mark Martin… Average start of 8.3 since LVMS was redesigned.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kyle Busch… Won last year’s race at LVMS, average finish of 5.2 over the last five. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Won three straight races (’05-’07) at LVMS. Finished 24th last year, Average Running Position of sixth. Y!-A2
3. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at LVMS (’99-’00). Top Fives in two straight races at LVMS, eight Top 10s in 12 career starts. Y!-B1
4. Kevin Harvick… Finished a career-best fourth at LVMS in ‘08, 12th last year. Y!-B2
5. Jeff Gordon… Won at LVMS in ‘01. Finishes of sixth or better in four of the last five races at LVMS. Y!-A3
6. Mark Martin… Won inaugural race in ‘98. DNF (engine) last year, average finish of 7.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-A4
7. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best second last year at LVMS. Y!-B3
8. Greg Biffle… Finishes of eighth or better in four of the last five races at LVMS.
9. Carl Edwards… Won at LVMS in ‘08, 17th last year.
10. Matt Kenseth… Two-time winner at LVMS (’03-’04). DNF (engine) last year, finished 20th in ‘08- Average Running Position of fifth. Average finish of 3.2 from ‘03-’07. Y!-B4
11. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 11.0 in four career starts at LVMS, finished 22nd last year.
12. Tony Stewart… Finished 26th last year at LVMS, Average Running Position of 13th. DNF (crash) in ‘08, seventh in ‘07.
13. Kasey Kahne… Two DNFs due to crash in six career starts at LVMS. Finished 11th last year, average finish of 5.8 in non-DNFs. Y!-B5
14. Brian Vickers… Finished a career-best eighth at LVMS in ‘09. Y!-B6
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Three straight finishes of 11th or better at LVMS, runner-up in ‘08. Y!-B7
16. Jamie McMurray… Top 10s in two of the last three races at LVMS. Y!-B8
17. Kurt Busch… Average start of 5.7 in nine career starts at LVMS, average finish of 25.8 over the last four years.
18. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 24.0 in three career starts at LVMS.
19. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 32nd last year, average finish of 13.5 from ‘07-’08.
20. Joey Logano… Started 20th, finished 13th in first career Cup start at LVMS.
21. David Reutimann… Started and finished fourth last year at LVMS.
22. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.6 since ‘07 at LVMS.
23. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Career-best 16th place finish last year at LVMS. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Average Running Position of 19th last year, finished 35th (crash). Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. Started 42nd, finished 21st in first career Cup start at LVMS. Y!-C3
26. David Ragan… DNF (engine) last year at LVMS, finished a career-best seventh in ‘08, 37th in ‘07.
27. Elliott Sadler… Finished 29th last year at LVMS, 14th or better from ‘06-’08.
28. Marcos Ambrose… Started fifth, finished 20th in first career Cup start at LVMS.
29. A.J. Allmendinger… Weak value play. Started 19th, finished 33rd in first career Cup start at LVMS. Y!-C4
30. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Finished fifth last year at LVMS– average running position of 10th.
31. Brad Keselowski… Started 13th, finished 38rd in first career Cup start at LVMS.
32. Robby Gordon… DNF (crash) in ‘08, average finish in 14.6 (’09,’07,’06)
33. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Started 18th, finished a career-best 19th last year.
34. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 19.3 in three career starts at LVMS.
35. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Finished a career-best eighth in ‘08, did not start at LVMS last year.
36. Max Papis… Started 26th, finished 36th last year at LVMS.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at LVMS.
38. Casey Mears… Average finish of 17.3 in seven career starts at LVMS. Two DNQs this season.
39. Mike Bliss… No Cup starts at LVMS since ‘05.
40. Johnny Sauter… No Cup starts at LVMS since ‘07.
41. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at LVMS.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at LVMS.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
45. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. DNFs due to crash in two career starts at LVMS (’09, ‘07).
46. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts. Two DNQs this season.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: 2010 Auto Club 500 from Auto Club Speedway

The racing at Auto Club Speedway is very fast and very spread out. The leaders can jump out to big leads. The long green flag runs can bring fuel mileage into play at the end of the race. This week will be the first test of each team’s intermediate package which will be important for the upcoming races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The most similar track is Michigan International Speedway where the 15th and 23rd races on the schedule are held. Auto Club Speedway will not get another visit until its Chase event, No. 30 on the schedule.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Fontana and Michigan [2.0 mile, D-shaped ovals]

Chasing the pole at Auto Club Speedway

1. Brian Vickers… Won the pole at last year’s Auto Club 500 in addition to capturing poles for both MIS races.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Average starting position of 1.8 over the last five starts at Auto Club– 4.4 at MIS.
3. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started inside the Top 5 for late season races at Auto Club and MIS.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.  Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Four-time winner (10/09, 8/08, 9/07, 4/02) at Fontana. Average finish of 2.8 since ‘07 with three wins, all Top 10s– led at least 31 laps in all six races. Y! A-1
2. Jeff Gordon… Three-time winner (5/04, 5/99, 6/97) at Fontana. Runner-up in both ‘09 races. Had led at least two laps in seven of the last eight. Y! A-2
3. Matt Kenseth… Three-time winner (2/09, 2/06, 2/07) at Fontana– average finish of 3.9 in that span. Finished 13th in 10/09 race. Y! B-1
4. Carl Edwards… Won 2/08 race at Fontana. Only one finish worse than seventh in 11 career starts. Y! A-3
5. Greg Biffle… Won 2/05 race at Fontana. Finished 20th in 10/09 but had an Average Running Position of 10th. Average finish of 3.0 in the prior two. Y! A-4
6. Tony Stewart… Average finish of 6.5 in ‘09 Fontana races, Top 10s in three straight Feb races.
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished 11th in 2/09 at Fontana, third in 10/09– each set career bests.
8. Mark Martin… Won 5/98 race at Fontana. DNF (engine) in 2/09, fourth in 10/09 race.
9. Denny Hamlin… DNF (crash) in 10/09 race at Fontana, 4.5 in the prior two.
10. Kyle Busch… Won 9/05 race at Fontana. Average finish of 6.3 from 2/06 - 2/09, 24th in 10/09 race.
11. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 15.5 at Fontana in ‘07, 6.0 in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th in ‘09. Y! B-2
12. Kurt Busch… Won 4/03 race at Fontana. Average finish of 8.0 in ‘07, 26.0 in ‘08, 6.5 in ‘09 races.
13. Kasey Kahne… Won 9/06 race at Fontana. Average finish of 8.5 in ‘08, finished 12th and DNF (crash) in ‘09. Y! B-3
14. Clint Bowyer… Has never finished worse than 20th in eight career starts at Fontana, 15th in Driver Rating. Top 10s in two of the last three. Y! B-4
15. Brian Vickers… Had a streak of five Top 12s at Fontana from 2/07 - 2/09. Y! B-5
16. David Ragan… Strong value play. Finished a career-best seventh at Fontana in 10/09, average finish of 13.2 in six career starts. Y! B-6
17. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Average finish of 13.7 in the last three starts at Fontana. Y! B-7
18. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 26th in first career Cup start at Fontana– started sixth and finished 14th in 10/09 race. Average start of 3.7, average finish of 3.3 in three career Nationwide starts, won from the pole in October. Y! B-8
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finishes of 25th or worse in three of the last four races at Fontana.
20. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Average finish of 8.9 at Fontana from ‘03-’06, 25.2 and no Top 15s since.
21. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 Fontana races, 24.5 in ‘09 races.
22. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.0 at Fontana in ‘07, 14.5 in ‘08, 31.0 in ‘09.
23. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 21.6 at Fontana since ‘06, only three Top 15s.
24. A.J. Allmendinger… Average start of 10.0, average finish of 23.5 in four career starts at Fontana. Y! C-1
25. Sam Hornish Jr…. Long shot value play. Finished a career-best 12th at Fontana in 10/09 race, first Top 20 in four starts. Y! C-2
26. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 22.5 in ‘09 Fontana races.
27. Bobby Labonte… Average finish of 23.0 at Fontana since ‘08. Y! C-3
28. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Average finish of 28.7 in seven career Nationwide starts, finished a career-best fifth in October.
29. Max Papis… Started 15th, finished 35th in 10/09 race, first career Cup start at Fontana. Started and finished 10th in last year’s Truck race. Y! C-4
30. Elliott Sadler… Won 9/04 race at Fontana, 23.5 average finish since– no Top 20s since ‘07.
31. Scott Speed… DNF (engine) in 2/09 race at Fontana, 21st in 10/09 race.
32. Travis Kvapil… Finished a career-best 18th at Fontana in 2/09, average finish of 28.8 in six career starts.
33. Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.7 in 13 career starts at Fontana.
34. Paul Menard… Average finish of 28.7 at Fontana in six career starts.
35. Regan Smith… Average finish of 31.7 at Fontana in three career starts.
36. Aric Almirola… Average finish of 32.0 in three career starts at Fontana.
37. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 32.6 since ‘05 at Fontana, only one Top 20.
38. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Finished 18th in last year’s October Nationwide race.
39. Boris Said… No Cup starts at Fontana since ‘05.
40. David Gilliland… Average finish of 37.5 in ‘09 Fontana races.
41. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Average finish of 16.5 in 13 career Truck races, start and parked in both ‘09 Nationwide races.
42. Johnny Sauter… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Finished 17th in last year’s Truck race.
43. Mike Bliss… Start and parked in 10/09 race, first Cup start at Fontana. Finished 13th in both ‘09 Nationwide races, 18th in Truck race.
44. Michael McDowell… Start and parked in 10/09 race, first career Cup start at Fontana. DNF (crash) in both Nationwide races last year.
45. Joe Nemechek… Start and parked in both ‘09 Fontana races.
46. Dave Blaney… Start and parked in both ‘09 Fontana races.

On Pit Row has several groups for you to battle against other fantasy players!

• Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing ID# 26538, password “daytona”
• ESPN Stock Car Challenge
• FOX Sports Auto Racing Challenge (salary cap) ID# 9138

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: 2010 Daytona 500 from Daytona International Speedway

The wait is nearly over. The 2010 edition of the Daytona 500 will soon be at hand. I’m back with On Pit Row for another round of the NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview. Before we get to the rankings there are some notes to go over:

• My five-part Fantasy NASCAR Primer Series covers Allocation leagues, Draft leagues, Salary cap leagues, Changes to Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing driver lists and look inside a first-of-its-kind expert fantasy draft

• A shout out to the Onebadwheel Fantasy NASCAR Racing Cheat Sheet. Darren has put together a great tool that no fantasy player will want to be without.
• Another shout out to the guys at Running3Wide who are offering perhaps the widest selection of fantasy NASCAR games out there.

On Pit Row has several groups for you to battle against other fantasy players! Some groups already filled up so we are opening up more.

• Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing ID# 26538, password “daytona”
• ESPN Stock Car Challenge
• FOX Sports Auto Racing Challenge (salary cap) ID# 9138

Before we get to the ranks, I’ve built two NASCAR Fantasy Tools based on the results from last year.

• 2009 Average Finish at Daytona Speedweeks
• 2009 Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Races

After reviewing these tables one thing is very clear, plate racing is crazy and unpredictable. When it comes to your fantasy lineups come out of the gate with some curveballs. Elliot Sadler, Brad Keswlowski, David Ragan were the Top 3 drivers in plate races last year and A.J. Allmendinger was among the best drivers during speedweeks.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kyle Busch… Won at Daytona 7/08. Best driver rating (116.68) at Daytona over the last three years. Y! A-1
2. Tony Stewart… Three-time winner at Daytona (’09, ‘06, ‘05). Won last year’s July race, eighth at the Daytona 500. Y! A-2
3. Jimmie Johnson… Won ‘06 Daytona 500, only two Top 20s in the seven races since– runner-up in July race. Y! A-3
4. Matt Kenseth… Won last year’s Daytona 500, eighth in the July race. Y! B-1
5. Jeff Gordon… Six-time winner at Daytona (’05, ‘04, ‘99, ‘98, ‘97, ‘95). Average finish of 27.5 in the last four races, only one Top 15. Y! A-4
6. Kurt Busch… Six Top 10s with five Top 5s over the last seven races at Daytona. Average finish of 5.3 since ‘08.
7. Kevin Harvick… Won ‘07 Daytona 500, runner-up last year. Won second straight Bud Shootout. Y! B-2
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner at Daytona (’04, ‘01). Average finish of 33.0 last year, 8.5 in ‘08. Y! B-4
9. Mark Martin… Had the most laps in the Top 15 in last year’s Daytona 500, finished 16th.
10. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 15.5 in ‘09 plate races. Finished a career-best ninth in July race at Daytona.
11. Kasey Kahne… Average finish of 7.5 at Daytona from ‘07-’08, 22.0 last year. Runner-up in Bud Shootout. Y! B-5
12. Denny Hamlin… Finished a career-best third in last year’s July race at Daytona, no Top 10s in seven prior starts. Average finish of 22.3 in ‘09 plate races.
13. Greg Biffle… Won at Daytona 7/03. Fourth-best average finish in ‘09 plate races (12.3).
14. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fourth in last year’s Daytona 500. Y! B-6
15. Brian Vickers… DNF (crash) in last year’s Daytona 500, tied a career-best seventh-place finish in July. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08 races at Daytona. Y! B-7
16. Ryan Newman… Won ‘08 Daytona 500, average finish of 30.7 in the three races since. Y! B-8
17. Carl Edwards… Average finish of 20.0 in the Daytona 500 since ‘07, 3.3 in July races.
18. Jeff Burton… Won at Daytona 7/00. Seventh-best average finish in ‘09 plate races (14.8).
19. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third in last year’s Daytona 500, 17th in July. Y! C-1
20. Elliott Sadler… Strong value play. Best average finish in ‘09 plates races (10.8).
21. David Ragan… Strong value play. Third-best average finish in ‘09 plate races (12.0).
22. Marcos Ambrose… Finished 17th in last year’s Daytona 500– first career start at Daytona, finish sixth in July.
23. David Reutimann… Career-best 12th place finish at ‘09 Daytona 500. Average finish of 15.7 at ‘09 Speedweeks.
24. Jamie McMurray… Won at Daytona 7/07, average finish of 26.5 in the four races since. Finished third in Bud Shootout.
25. Joey Logano… DNF (crash) in last year’s Daytona 500, finished 19th in July.
26. Brad Keselowski… Started 36th, finished 24th in first career start at Daytona, 7/09. Average finish of 12.2 in four career Nationwide starts (’08-’09).
27. Martin Truex Jr…. Started from the pole, finished a career-best 11th in last year’s Daytona 500– finished 25th in July race. Average finish of 25.0 in ‘09 plate races.
28. Michael Waltrip… Weak value play. Three-time winner at Daytona (’03, ‘02, ‘01), four Top 20s in the 12 races since– finished seventh in last year’s Daytona 500. Y! C-2
29. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish of 12.0 at Daytona in ‘08, 21.5 last year. Average finish of 20.3 in ‘09 plate races. Y! C-3
30. Regan Smith… Weak value play. Average finish of 21.8 in ‘09 plate races. Y! C-4
31. Casey Mears… No Top 10s at Daytona since ‘06, only Top 15 was last year’s Daytona 500.
32. Sam Hornish Jr…. Finished 32nd in both Daytona races last year.
33. Reed Sorenson… Long shot value play. Average finish of 14.0 in four career Daytona 500 starts, 32.8 in July.
34. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Four-time winner at Daytona (’91 ‘88, ‘87, ‘85). Finished 23rd in last years’s Daytona 500.
35. Boris Said… Long shot value play. DNF (crash) in 7/08. Finished 14th in ‘07 Daytona 500.
36. Robby Gordon… Streak of six Top 15s at Daytona from ‘06-’08, average finish of 28.0 last year.
37. John Andretti… Won at Daytona 7/97. Average finish of 24.0 in ‘09 plate races.
38. Aric Almirola… Started 11th, finished 30th in ‘09 Daytona 500– first career start at Daytona.
39. Scott Speed… Average finish of 33.0 in two career starts at Daytona.
40. Michael McDowell… Started 21st, finished 25th last July– first career start at Daytona.
41. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 34.3 at Daytona since ‘08 (three starts).
42. Paul Menard… Only one top 15 at Daytona in five career starts. Average finish of 29.0 in ‘09 plate races.
43. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Daytona– average finish of 4.0 (out of 12) in three IROC starts.
44. Robert Richardson Jr…. No career Cup starts at Daytona. Started 41st, finished 18th in 11/09 Talladega race, his only Cup start. Average finish of 29.5 in six career Nationwide starts at Daytona (’07-’09).
45. David Gilliland… DNFs (crash) at Daytona in his last two starts (7/09, 7/08).
46. Joe Nemechek… Failed to qualify for last year’s Daytona 500, start and parked in July.
47. Dave Blaney… Start and parked in July race at Daytona.
48. Mike Wallace… No Cup starts at Daytona since ‘07.
49. Kirk Shelmerdine… No Cup starts at Daytona since ‘06.
50. Mike Bliss… No Cup starts at Daytona since ‘05.
51. Derrike Cope… Won ‘90 Daytona 500. No Cup starts at Daytona since ‘04.
52. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts at Daytona. Average finish of 12.0 in 10 career Truck series starts (’00-’09).
53. Jeff Fuller… No career Cup starts at Daytona. Average finish of 32.2 in nine career Nationwide starts (’95-’05).
54. Norm Benning… No career Cup starts at Daytona. Finished 10th in ‘09 ARCA race at Daytona.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.

• Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
• Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
• Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.

Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami

1. Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ‘06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
2. Ryan Newman… Starting second in ‘05 and ‘07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ‘06 and ‘08 when he started 16th and 29th.
3. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ‘07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to  qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ‘03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ‘03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ‘06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
4. Kurt Busch… Won in ‘02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ‘06 and ‘08, runner-up in ‘07. Y!-B1
5. Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
6. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ‘00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ‘03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
8. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
9. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
10. Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
11. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
12. Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ‘07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
13. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
14. Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
15. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
16. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
17. Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ‘03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
18. Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
19. Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
20. Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ‘07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
21. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
22. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
23. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ‘03.
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
27. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ‘01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
30. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
31. Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
32. Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
33. David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, did not start last year.
34. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
35. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
37. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ‘03.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
39. Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
40. Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ‘06 and ‘07.
41. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
42. Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
43. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
44. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
45. Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
46. Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ‘03.
47. Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ‘03.
48. Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ‘07 Nationwide race.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks. Thus far there has been a total of seven races on flat tracks. This gives fantasy owners a very clear idea on the top options for this weekend’s race at Phoenix International Raceway. I’ve created another NASCAR Fantasy Tool, 2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks. Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway all vary in length but their banking in the corners is similar and are all, of course, flat.

Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin each have two wins on flat tracks. Kyle Busch owns a victory and has three straight top-fives on flat tracks. Tony Stewart began the season with four top-fives on flat tracks but an average finish on 13.3 on the last three. Ryan Newman has three straight top-10s; Brian Vickers has three straight of 11 or better. Sam Hornish Jr. put together a streak of four top-10s but was a disaster in the other three.

Chasing the pole at Phoenix

1. Mark Martin… In April, Martin from the pole and has won a total of seven poles this season, one being Richmond. He started fourth just three weeks ago at Martinsville.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson won last year’s O’RAP 500 from the pole. The rest of Johnson’s starting numbers at Phoenix are decent: fifth and six in ‘07, seventh in 4/08 and he started 10th back in April.
3. Jeff Gordon… Gordon has started inside the top-10 for six of the seven flat track races this season. He has started inside the top-10 this season for 10 straight races.
4. Kurt Busch… Started third in April and in last year’s O’RAP 500. He has started inside the top-10 at Phoenix in seven of his last eight attempts.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Phoenix (4/09, ‘93). Average finish of 8.0 in four starts since ‘07. Best average finish (5.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Phoenix (’08 sweep, ‘07). Has never finished worse than 15th in 12 career starts– fourth or better in six straight, seventh or better in eight straight. Finished fourth in April. Tenth-best average finish (9.6) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A2
3. Denny Hamlin… Five finishes of six or better at Phoenix over the last six races, average finish of 6.0 in that span. Average finish of 4.0 last year. Finished sixth in April. Second-best average finish (5.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B1
4. Tony Stewart… Won at Phoenix in ‘99. Average finish of 18.0 last year, 3.0 in ‘07. Runner-up in April. Third-best average finish (7.4) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B2
5. Kurt Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05, runner-up in last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500- led 60 laps. Finished third in April. Fourth-best average finish (8.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B3
6. Jeff Gordon… Won at Phoenix in 4/07, finished 10th in 11/07 race. Finished 13th in last year’s April race, DNF (engine) in November. Fifth-best average finish (8.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Average finish of 11.9 at flat tracks this season, 3.0 in the last two. Y!-B4
8. Kyle Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05. Average finish of 10.0 since ‘07 (five races). Sixth-best average finish (9.0) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A4
9. Ryan Newman… DNF (engine), 34th-place finish last year. Finished 38th and fifth in ‘07. Finished 16th in April. Average finish of 11.3 at flat tracks this season. Y!-B5
10. Carl Edwards… Finished fourth at Phoenix in both races last year, ninth in April. Seven top-10s in 10 career starts.
11. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Finished fifth in April.
12. Brian Vickers… Only one top-10 (’05) at Phoenix in 10 career starts. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘06, 21.6 since (not counting crash last year). Y!-B7
13. Kasey Kahne… Has finished 13th at Phoenix in consecutive races, no top-10s since ‘06. Y!-B8
14. Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in last year’s April race, 12th in November. Average finish of 14.9 at flat tracks this season.
15. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’01, ‘00). Has not finished worse than 15th since ‘97 (17 races). Average finish of 7.5 last year, 11.0 in ‘07. 9.5 in ‘06.
16. Kevin Harvick… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’06 sweep). Average finish of 10.5 in ‘07-’08.
17. Matt Kenseth… Won at Phoenix in ‘02. Average finish of 4.0 in ‘07, 26.6 in the three races since.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner at Phoenix (’04, ‘03). Average finish of 6.5 last year. Finished 31st, ran 18th in April.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 16.0 at Phoenix in two career starts. Y!-C1
20. David Reutimann… Average finish of 21.5 at Phoenix last year. Started and finished a career-best eighth in April.
21. Joey Logano… Started 31st, finished 21st in April– first career start at Phoenix.
22. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Third in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished 23rd at Phoenix in both ‘07 races, 10.3 in the three races since. Finished third in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 11th in April.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 7.3 at Phoenix in three of the last four races, not counting a DNF (overheating) in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Average finish of 17.0 in seven career starts. Finished seventh in April.
25. Casey Mears… Zero top-10s at Phoenix in 11 career starts, 27.3 average finish.
26. Sam Hornish Jr…. Weak value play. Finished a career-best ninth at Phoenix in April, but had an average running position of 23rd. Average finish of 27.6 in three previous career starts. Y!-C3
27. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish of 14.3 at Phoenix from ‘07-’08. Y!-C4
28. AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 25.5 at Phoenix in two career starts.
29. David Ragan… Finished a career-best 10th at Phoenix in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 27th in the April race.
30. Reed Sorenson… Finished a career-best 12th at Phoenix in April. DNF (crash) and 31st-place finish last year. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07.
31. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 28.7 at Phoenix in three career starts.
32. Paul Menard… Zero top-20 finishes at Phoenix in five career starts, 23.4 average finish.
33. Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th at Phoenix in both races last year.
34. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.8 at Phoenix since ‘07 (five races).
35. Elliott Sadler… Only one top-10 (’02) at Phoenix in 15 career starts. Finished 11th in both ‘05 races, average finish of 31.1 in the seven races since.
36. Scott Speed… Average finish of 37.0 at Phoenix in two career starts.
37. John Andretti… Started 41st, finished 38th at Phoenix in April, first start since ‘04. Average finish of 12.0 in four CART Series races (’88-’92).
38. Brandon Ash… No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Average finish of 10.9 in seven career Truck Series West races (’98-’05).
39. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
40. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
41. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts.
42. David Gilliland… Possible start and park. Started 27th, finished 33rd at Phoenix in April.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. Started 29th, finished 34rd in April of last year– first career start at Phoenix.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Finished 41st at Phoenix in April.
45. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Finished 42nd at Phoenix in April.
46. Tony Raines… Likely start and park. Finished 43rd at Phoenix in April.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Because the 1.5-mile, 24-degree banked track configuration at Texas Motor Speedway is similar to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway picking drivers for a fantasy lineup can be made much easier. The first Texas race, won by Jeff Gordon, was held in April. Atlanta and Lowe’s have already held two races a piece this season, so there a combined five races in which to analyze.

Three drivers have compiled an average finish better than 10th at the five 1.5M / 24° races: Jeff Gordon (5.8), Kasey Kahne (7.4) and Matt Kenseth (8.2). Six drivers averaged better than 16th: Tony Stewart (11.0), Ryan Newman (11.8), Jimmie Johnson (12.2), David Reutimann (12.6), Kyle Busch (12.6), Brian Vickers (13.4) and Mark Martin (15.2).

View my updated NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s table to see the results at all five races, plus the average finish of 32 drivers.

Chasing the pole at Texas Motor Speedway

1. Jeff Gordon… In his last five qualifying attempts at Texas, Gordon has won two poles and started in the second position twice. At the five 1.5M / 24° races this season, Gordon has an average starting position of 6.8.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Although he was never won a pole at Texas, Johnson owns the best average starting position among all drivers (8.9) there. This season Johnson has an average starting position of 5.0 at the five 1.5M / 24° races, including the pole at the second Lowe’s race three weeks ago.
3. Matt Kenseth… He has also never captured a pole at Texas but Kenseth has started eighth or better in six of his last eight attempts there. Kenseth did not have great runs at some of the 1.5M / 24° tracks but did start third at Texas in April and fourth at Lowe’s three weeks ago.
4. Martin Truex Jr…. In his last three April runs at Texas, Truex’s average starting position is only 22.3. November has been much better, winning the pole in the ‘07 Dickies 500 and starting second the next year. In September, Truex won the pole at the second Atlanta race.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Won at Texas in April. Runner-up in last year’s Dickies 500. Average finish of 5.5 in ‘07. Has led at least 15 laps in four of the last five races. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Won at Texas in ‘07. Runner-up in the last two April races, 15th in last year’s Dickies 500. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Won at Texas in ‘06. Finished fourth at Texas in April. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Won at Texas in ‘98. Since ‘06: 6.5 average finish in April, 22.6 in November. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Won at Texas in ‘02. Has a streak of five top-10 finishes at Texas– average finish of 5.4 in that span. Eight straight finishes inside the top-12. Had led at least one lap in 10 of 14 career starts. Y!-A4
6. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished seventh at Texas in April, best career finish. Y!-B2
7. Kasey Kahne… Won from the pole at Texas in ‘06 but no top-10s since. Finished 19th at Texas in April, average finish of 24.5 last year. Y!-B3
8. Kurt Busch… Finished eighth at Texas in April. Average finish of 32.0 in ‘08, 9.5 in ‘07. Y!-B4
9. Ryan Newman… Won at Texas in ‘03. Average finish of 21.5 at Texas in the last two races, 4.5 in the prior two. Y!-B5
10. Kyle Busch… Average finish of 7.8 at Texas over the last four races, led laps in all four.
11. Denny Hamlin… Finished 12th at Texas in April, average finish of 11.0 last year. Y!-B6
12. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Texas (swept last year, ‘05). Finished eighth at Texas in April.
13. Greg Biffle… Won at Texas in ‘05. Average finish of 4.0 at Texas in the last two races, led laps in both.
14. Clint Bowyer… Finished 22nd at Texas in April, average finish of 7.0 last year. Owns a career average finish of 13.6 in seven career starts.
15. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Texas in April and finished 11th, finished 10th last year. Top-10 finishes in the last two Nationwide races. Y!-B7
16. Brian Vickers… No top-10 finishes at Texas in 10 career starts, average finish of 16.6 over the last three. Y!-B8
17. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Texas in ‘07 and ‘97. Top-10 finishes in five of the last seven races at Texas.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won at Texas in ‘00. Had led laps in six straight races at Texas, average finish of 18.0 in those races.
19. Joey Logano… Strong value play. Started 10th, finished 30th at Texas in April. Average start of 8.0, finish of 9.0 in two Nationwide races.
20. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Finished 27th at Texas in April, average finish of 9.0 last year.
21. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. DNF (engine) at Texas in April, finished 21st last year. Average finish of 13.5 in last year’s Nationwide races. Y!-C1
22. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. Two career starts at Texas, 21.0 average finish. Average finish of 7.8 over the last four Nationwide races. Started 42nd, finished third in April’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Finished 38th at Texas in April, average finish of 7.8 in ‘07 and ‘08.
24. David Ragan… Weak value play. Started fourth, DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 12.0 last year. Average finish of 8.5 over the last three Nationwide races.
25. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 12th, finished 17th at Texas in April– both career bests. Average finish of 9.6 (two wins) in 13 IndyCar starts from ‘00-’07. Y!-C3
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Last two November races at Texas: started second, finished eighth last year; won the pole, finished third in ‘07. Finished 25th at Texas in April.
27. AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 33.0 at Texas in three career starts. Y!-C4
28. Elliott Sadler… Won at Texas in ‘04, only one top-10 finish since. Average finish of 31.0 over the last three Texas races.
29. Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.2 at Texas since ‘07.
30. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Finished 28th at Texas in April, average finish of 32.5 last year.
31. Paul Menard… Average finish of 15.0 at Texas in April since ‘07, 26.0 in November.
32. Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 27.3 at Texas over the last three races.
33. Bobby Labonte… DNF (crash) at Texas in April, average finish of 29.5 last year.
34. Scott Speed… Started and finished 33rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas.
35. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 32.3 at Texas over the last three races.
36. Regan Smith… Three career starts at Texas, 33.3 average finish.
37. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Texas. Average finish of 22.0 in six career Truck starts.
38. Robby Gordon… DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 33.0 last year.
39. John Andretti… Started and finished 26th at Texas in April.
40. David Gilliland… Started 30th, finished 29th at Texas in April
41. Max Papis… Started 39th, finished 35rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas. Crash in ‘08 Truck race, ‘06 Nationwide race. Two IROC starts in ‘05 and ‘06.
42. Michael McDowell… Started 40th, finished 33rd in April of last year, first career Cup start at Texas. Started 15th, finished 17th in April’s Nationwide race.
43. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify at Texas in April, 37.5 average finish last year.
44. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
45. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
46. Mike Skinner… Likely start and park. Started ninth, finished 29th in April of last year.
47. Tony Raines.. Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ‘07.
48. Derrike Cope… Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ‘06.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Amp Energy 500 at Talladega

The racing at Talladega Superspeedway is often times unpredictable and your fantasy lineup should reflect that this week. I’ve assembled another Similar Track Tool showing the best average finishers at the three restrictor plate races held earlier this season, Daytona’s February and July events and the April race at Talladega in between. Click here to use the Talladega/Daytona similar track tool.

After reviewing the table several things jump out: Kurt Busch is the only driver to finish in the top-10 at all three plate races this season. David Ragan finished 12th or better in all three. Marcos Ambrose has an average finish of 9.0; Elliot Sadler had an average finish 11.3. Reed Sorenson finished ninth and 11th in the first two plate races, Brian Vickers finished eighth and seventh in the last two.

Plate racing and high speeds lead to damaged race cars, a fantasy lineup can account for this with some changeups in driver selection. Owners in allocation formats, such as Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing, can conserve remaining starts of top drivers by going with deeper picks for what always turns out to be a crapshoot of a race. For example, addition to having solid finishes in plate races David Ragan and teammate Matt Kenseth, winner of the this year’s Daytona 500, will be using Ford’s new FR9 engine. Either one is a good gamble this week.

For those hunting bonus points for top qualifiers I’ve added my top-three qualifiers to the weekly preview.
Chasing the pole at Talladega:

1. Martin Truex Jr…. Won the pole at the first Daytona race this year. Started third at Talladega in April and 10th at last year’s AMP Energy 500. Also won the pole at Atlanta and has started inside the top-five in two of the last three races.
2. Jeff Gordon… Started second and third for the Daytona races; 14th at Talladega. Has qualified inside the top-10 for eight straight races.
3. Tony Stewart… Won the pole at the second Daytona race, fifth in the first one but 23rd at April race Talladega. Has started fifth in two of the last four races.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Won at Talladega in ‘06, runner-up in both ‘07 races. Average finish of 11.0 last year. DNF (crash) in April race, average running position of 10th. Runner-up at Daytona in July. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Six-time winner at Talladega (’07 sweep, ‘05, ‘04, ‘00, ‘96). Won both ‘07 races, average finish of 31.3 in the three races since. Average finish 26.0 in plate races this season. Y!-A2
3. Kurt Busch… Twelve top-10 finishes at Talladega in 17 career starts, led at least one lap in 13. Streak of seven straight finishes of eighth or better from ‘04-’07. Finished sixth in April race. Y!-B1
4. Tony Stewart… Won last year’s AMP Energy 500, eighth-place 10/07. Finished 23rd in April race at Talladega. Won at Daytona in July. Y!-B2
5. Denny Hamlin… DNF (crash) in last year’s AMP Energy 500, finished 22nd in April race at Talladega– had an average running position of 10th. Finished third (4/08), fourth (10/07) and has led laps in all seven career starts at ‘Dega. Finished third at Daytona in July. Y!-B3
6. Juan Pablo Montoya… Won the pole in the April race at Talladega, finished 20th. Runner-up 4/08. Led at least one lap in three straight Talladega races. Y!-B4
7. Ryan Newman… Minus last year’s DNF at Talladega, average finish of 6.3 since ‘07. Finished third in April race, led 10 laps. Y!-B5
8. Mark Martin… Two-winner at Talladega (’97, ‘95). Started seventh, DNF (crash) in April race. Bad luck in the last two plate races: 43th and 38th. Y!-A3
9. Kyle Busch… Won in ‘08 at Talladega. Finished 15th in last year’s AMP Energy 500, led 20 laps. 25th in April race, led 42 laps. Y!-A4
10. Clint Bowyer… Started fifth, completed only eight laps in March race at Talladega, average finish of 8.3 in the three previous races at ‘Dega.
11. Kasey Kahne… Average finish of 14.0 in ‘07 races at Talladega, 31.6 in the three races since. Y!-B6
12. Brian Vickers… Won in ‘06 at Talladega, laps led in seven straight starts. Five finishes of eighth or better over the last seven races at ‘Dega. Y!-B7
13. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 5.0 in ‘06 races at Talladega, 24.8 in the five races since.
14. Carl Edwards… DNF (crash) in two straight races at Talladega. Finished fourth at Daytona in July.
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five-winner at Talladega (’04, ‘03, ‘02 sweep, ‘01). Won four straight, 10/01 through 4/03. Only one top-fives since, runner-up in April race. Four top-15s, four DNFs in the nine races since, laps led in eight. Y!-B8
16. Greg Biffle… DNFs in five of the last seven races at Talladega. Started second, finished seventh in April race, both career bests.
17. David Ragan… Average finish of 3.5 in ‘08 races at Talladega. Started 10th, finished 12th in April race.
18. Joey Logano… Started 22nd, finished ninth and led four laps in April race, first career start at Talladega. Finished third in the April Nationwide race, second in last year’s ARCA race.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Started 34th, finished fourth in April race, first career start at Talladega. Y!-C1
20. Casey Mears… Average finish of 10.8 over the last four races at Talladega. Finished 16th in the April race.
21. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 8.6 over the last three races at Talladega, led laps in all three. Finished 10th in April race.
22. Elliott Sadler… Has led laps in 13 straight races at Talladega. Finished 10th in last year’s AMP Energy 500, 19th in April race.
23. Brad Keselowski… Won 4/09 race, first career start at Talladega. Started ninth, won the April race- only led on the final lap. Finished ninth in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
24. David Reutimann… Three DNFs in five career starts at Talladega, average finish of 23.0 in the two completed races.
25. Paul Menard… Finished 14th 4/08, runner-up in last year’s AMP Energy 500. Finished 13th in April race at Talladega, led laps in all three races.
26. Kevin Harvick… Has not finished better than 20th in the last four races at Talladega.
27. Regan Smith… Average finish of 19.5 in four career starts at Talladega. Has started fourth and sixth in his last two attempts. Finished 15th in April race. Y!-C3
28. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘98. DNF (crash) in April race at Talladega. Finished sixth in last year’s AMP Energy 500. Y!-C4
29. Michael Waltrip… Won in ‘03. Has led at least one lap in three straight races at Talladega. Average finish of 22.3 over the last races at ‘Dega.
30. Martin Truex Jr…. Has crashed five times in nine career start at Talladega and in three straight.
31. AJ Allmendinger… DNF (crash) 4/08 race at Talladega. Started 38th, finished 35th in April race.
32. Jamie McMurray… DNFs (crash) in three of the last six races at Talladega.
33. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 9.5 in ‘08 races at Talladega. DNF (crash) in April race.
34. Reed Sorenson… Started 41st, finished 11th in April race at Talladega. DNF (engine) and 23rd-place finish last year.
35. Scott Speed… Started eighth, finished fifth and led a lap in April race, first career start at Talladega. Finished seventh and 23rd in two career ARCA races at ‘Dega.
36. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started fourth, led three laps in April race at Talladega, DNF (crash).
37. Max Papis… Stared 42rd, finished 18th in April race, first career start at Talladega.
38. John Andretti… Started 40th, finished 27th in April race, first start at Talladega since ‘07.
39. David Stremme… DNFs (crash) in three of his last five starts at Talladega.
40. Robert Richardson Jr…. No career Cup starts at Talladega. Average finish of 18.0 in three career Nationwide starts at ‘Dega.
41. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Talladega. Started 24th, finished 13th in ‘05 ARCA race at ‘Dega.
42. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Average start of 8.3, finish of 16.6 in last three starts at Talladega.
43. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. DNF (engine) in last year’s AMP Energy 500.
44. Tony Raines… Likely start and park. DNF (crash) in last year’s AMP Energy 500.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Tums Fast Relief 500

The fantasy strategy at Martinsville is simple: start drivers who are great at Martinsville. Unlike a lot of other tracks, the numbers do not lie at Martinsville. The same guys tend to get to the front– and stay there. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin all have career average finishes of 8.0 or better. Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are all between 12.1 and 13.3.

There are other short tracks on the schedule but none are close to Martinsville’s unique paper clip shape. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville and braking is key at both venues. New Hampshire held its second race to open the Chase.

One interesting loop data statistic from the March race at Martinsville is the number of drivers who were in the top-15 during all 500 laps; there were a total of five (Hamlin, Stewart, Gordon, Bowyer and Kevin Harvick). In 2008, only three total drivers accomplished this in either of the two races: David Ragan in March; Johnson and Carl Edwards in October.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Six-time winner at Martinsville. 11 top-fives, 14 top-10 finishes in 15 career starts. Lead an average of 173.7 laps per race and won five of the last seven Martinsville races. Won the March race. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Strong qualifier at Martinsville, won three of the last four poles. Seven-time winner (’05 sweep, ‘03 sweep, ‘99, ‘97, ‘96. Finished fourth in the March race. Top-five finishes in nine straight Martinsville races, lead an average of 100.6 laps in each. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’06, ‘00). Better in March: ‘08 fifth/26th -place finishes; ‘07 seventh/13th-place finishes. Finished third in the March race. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Martinsville (’00, ‘92) Finished seventh in the March race, first start since ‘06. Y!-A3
5. Denny Hamlin… Won last year’s March race at Martinsville. Runner-up in this year’s March race, led 296 laps. Average finish of 3.2 over the last six Martinsville races. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Good qualifier at Martinsville, started in the top-five two of the last three races. Average finish of 8.8 since 2007. Started third, finished fifth at Martinsville in March- both career-bests. Y!-A4
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 12.6 over five career starts at Martinsville. Finished 12th in the March race. Y!-B3
8. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 10.0 over the last four races at Martinsville. Finished 11th in the March race.
9. Ryan Newman… Finished sixth in the March race at Martinsville, average running position of 16th. Average finish of 21.0 in ‘08 races, 8.0 in ‘07. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Won at Martinsville in ‘02 but only two top-10 finishes since. Average finish of 24.0 since ‘06. Finished 18th in the March race, average running position of ninth. Y!-B5
11. Matt Kenseth… Finished 23rd at March race at Martinsville. Finished 30th and eighth last year, 7.5 average in ‘07.
12. Kyle Busch… Three top-five finishes in his first six career starts at Martinsville- average finish of 30.3 in the last three.
13. Kasey Kahne… Finished 19th in the March race at Martinsville. Last top-10 in ‘06, average finish of 21.8 since. Y!-B6
14. Marcos Ambrose… Started 24th, finished 14th in the March race, first career start at Martinsville. Y!-C1
15. Jeff Burton… Won at Martinsville in ‘97. Average finish of 10.6 since ‘07. Finished 15th in the March race.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five finishes of eighth or better over the last seven races at Martinsville. Runner-up last year, finished eighth in the March race. Y!-B7
17. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Only two career top-10 finishes at Martinsville, two were in 2008. Finished 21st in the March race. Y!-B8
18. David Reutimann… Finished 20th in the March race at Martinsville but had an average running position of 11th; has never finished better than 17th.
19. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 20.0 over the last three Martinsville races. Finished 28th in the March race.
20. Carl Edwards… Good qualifier at Martinsville. Started fourth, finished third last year. Started fifth in March, finished 26th- average running position of 18th.
21. Brian Vickers… Finished 33rd at March race at Martinsville, average running position of 13th. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘08 races, no starts in ‘07.
22. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished 15th at last year’s Martinsville October race, ninth in the March race this season. Y!-C2
23. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 32nd in the March race, first career start at Martinsville.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. One top-10 in seven career starts at Martinsville, 23.3 average finish.
25. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Two top-10 finishes in his last three starts at Martinsville. Finished 10th in the March race.
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 23.0 in four career starts at Martinsville.
27. David Ragan… Finished 11th and 13th at Martinsville last year, 27th in the March race.
28. Michael Waltrip… Long shot value play. Finished 13th in the March race at Martinsville, 18th in last two October races.
29. Reed Sorenson… Finished 36th and 35th at Martinsville last year, 17th in the March race. Y!-C3
30. David Stremme… Started and finished 22nd in the March race at Martinsville.
31. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 39.6 in his last three October races at Martinsville. Finished 31st in the March race.
32. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘02. Finished 16th in the March race at Martinsville, 31.8 average finish in ‘07, ‘08 starts. Y!-C4
33. Scott Speed… Average finish of 34.5 in two career starts at Martinsville.
34. Sam Hornish Jr…. Has finished 34th in his last two starts at Martinsville.
35. Robby Gordon… Has finished 34th or worse in eight straight starts at Martinsville.
36. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Average finish of 18.5 in ‘08 races at Martinsville.
37. John Andretti… Won in ‘99. Finished 35th in the March race at Martinsville, 33rd in ‘07.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 in six career starts at Martinsville.
39. Michael McDowell… Started 34th, finished 26th in last year’s March Martinsville race- first ever Cup start.
40. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. DNFs in two straight starts at Martinsville.
41. Sterling Marlin… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify in last year’s October Martinsville race.
42. Dave Blaney… DNFs in two of the last three races at Martinsville.
43. Mike Wallace… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.
44. Derrike Cope… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Bank of America 500 from Lowes

With two points-paying races per year, the Showdown and the All-Star Race, there is no shortage of data to analyze for Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Plus its 1.5-mile quad-oval configuration is similar to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway. I have put together a table with the average finishes from the two Atlanta races plus the events held at Texas and Lowe’s earlier in the year. Check my NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s here.

Four drivers averaged a finish better than 10.0 in those four races: Jeff Gordon (6.3), Brian Vickers (8.3), Kasey Kahne (8.5) and Matt Kenseth (9.8). Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart both averaged 10.5.
Keep in mind the May race at Lowe’s was called early due to rain. David Reutimann, Ryan Newman and Robby Gordon finished in the top-three but had a combined average running position of 17.0. The race had only six caution laps, ending a streak nine races with at least 10 cautions.

Because the track is prone to mishaps, fantasy owners in allocation formats should consider saving their remaining starts of elite drivers for next week’s race at Martinsville Speedway, where the cream rises to the top. Talladega Superspeedway and Texas will follow; Dega is another race to save starts. The results of his week’s race will be important for setting the lineup for Texas.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier at Lowe’s, three poles including last year. Five-time winner (’03, ‘04 sweep, ‘05 sweep). Runner-up in both ‘06 races. 12.0 average finish in ‘07 races. DNF (engine) and sixth-place finish in 08. Started fifth in May race, finished 13th but an average running position of fifth. Has led laps in 15 of 16 career starts at Lowe’s. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Five-time winner at Lowe’s (’94, ‘97, ‘98, ‘99, ‘07) Seven poles (none since ‘00) Average finish of 6.0 in ‘08. Started third, finished 14th in May. Started fourth, finished eighth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… Four-time winner at Lowe’s (’92, ‘95, ‘98, ‘02) Two poles (’91). Since ‘07: 9.6 average start, 13.6 average finish. Finished fifth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-A3
4. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started ninth, finished eighth at May Lowe’s race, career bests. Finished third in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B1
5. Tony Stewart… Won at Lowe’s in ‘03. Average finish of 6.5 in ‘07. 14.5 last year, led an average of 32.5 laps. Started 28th, finished 19th in May. Finished 11th in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B2
6. Kasey Kahne… Three-time winner at Lowe’s (’06 sweep, ‘08) Winner, runner-up in ‘08 races. Started sixth, finished ninth at May race. Started second, won the Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B3
7. Carl Edwards… Average finish of 10.0 in nine career starts at Lowe’s- only one finish worse than 15th, 33rd at last year’s Chase race. Y!-A4
8. Greg Biffle… Average start 3.5, average finish 4.5 in ‘08 races at Lowe’s. Started 16th, finished 20th in May. Finished 10th in Sep Atlanta race.
9. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 20.0 in ‘08 Lowe’s races. Finished 11th in May race at Lowe’s. Finished sixth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Finished 34th at Lowe’s in May but an average running position of 13th. Average finish of 9.5 in ‘08. No finish better than 26th from ‘06-’07. Y!-B5
11. Ryan Newman… Strong qualifier, eight poles at Lowe’s including the May race. Won both poles in ‘07 (DNFs in both). Average start of 27.0 last year, finished 21st in both. Runner-up in May race but had an average running position of 16th. Finished third in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B6
12. Brian Vickers… Led an average of 58.5 laps over the last four Lowe’s starts. Finished fifth in only ‘07 start at Lowe’s. DNF (crash) and 18th place finish in ‘08. Started eighth, finished fifth at May Lowe’s race. Finished seventh in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B7
13. David Reutimann… Won the May race at Lowe’s but had an average running position of 12th. Finished 10th in last year’s May race, finished 32nd in last race’s Oct race but had an average running position of 19th. Finished fourth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B8
14. Kyle Busch… Led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Lowe’s races. Average finish of 4.0 over the last four races at Lowe’s. Started second, finished six and led 173 of 227 laps at May Lowe’s race- average running position of second. Finished 13th in Sep Atlanta race.
15. Matt Kenseth… Won at Lowe’s in ‘00. Started 30th, finished 10th in May race. ‘07-’08: two DNFs, seventh and 12th-place finishes. Finished 12th in Sep Atlanta race.
16. Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in 10/07 race at Lowe’s but average finish of 24.3 in the three races since. Finished 36th in May.
17. Kevin Harvick… Only three top-10 finishes in 17 career starts at Lowe’s, two came as a rookie ‘01. Average finish of 13.5 in ‘08 races. Started 22nd, finished 41st in May race. Runner-up in Sep Atlanta race.
18. Bobby Labonte… Strong value play. Two-time winner at Lowe’s (’95, ‘00) Has not finished worse than 18th since ‘98. Average finish of 13.0 since ‘07. Finished 12th in May race, 18th in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-C1
19. Joey Logano… Started 14th, finished ninth in May race- first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in the Showdown, eighth in the All-Star Race.
20. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 17.0 at Lowe’s since ‘08. Finished 35th in Sep Atlanta race. Won the Showdown. Y!-C2
21. Jeff Burton… Three-time winner at Lowe’s (’99, ‘01, ‘08) Started 40th, finished 25th in May race. Five finishes of sixth or better in the seven races since ‘06.
22. Marcos Ambrose… Started 23rd, finished 26th in May race- first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Average finish of 14.5 in ‘08 Nationwide races. Y!-C3
23. Casey Mears… Won at Lowe’s in ‘07 but an average finish of 28.0 in the four races since.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finished fifth and led 76 laps in last year’s May race at Lowe’s, 36th in the Oct race. Finished 40th in May race.
25. David Stremme… Weak value play. Average finish of 13.0 in ‘07 races at Lowe’s. Started 35th, finished 22nd in May race. Finished 14th in Sep Atlanta race. Finished third in the Showdown.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 23.6 at Lowe’s since ‘08. Won the pole, finished 26th in Sep Atlanta race.
27. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Two-time winner at Lowe’s (’84, ‘87) Started 10th, finished 15th at the May race. Y!-C4
28. AJ Allmendinger… Finished 20th, DNF (crash) in last year’s races at Lowe’s- 32nd in May race.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup stars at Lowe’s. Average finish of 6.3 in ‘08-’09 Nationwide races at Lowe’s.
30. Jamie McMurray… Won as a rookie in ‘02 at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in last year’s Oct race, 21st in May race.
31. Robby Gordon… DNF, 30th in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Finished third in the May race but had an average running position of 16th in May race. Finished 16th in Sep Atlanta race.
32. David Ragan… Average finish of 11.0 in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Started 34th, finished 24th in May race.
33. Scott Speed… Started and finished 18th in May race, first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Started 14th, finished 11th in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s.
34. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 19.6 at Lowe’s since ‘08. Finished 21st in Sep Atlanta race.
35. Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 27.0 at Lowe’s since ‘08. Finished 32nd in Sep Atlanta race.
36. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 18.5 in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Started 42nd, finished 35th in May race.
37. Paul Menard… DNF (overheating) and 26th in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Finished 29th in the May race, 15th in Sep Atlanta race.
38. Travis Kvapil… Finished 26th, DNF (crash) in ‘08. Only four Cup starts this season. Average finish of 10.8 in four Truck series starts (’03-’08) at Lowe’s.
39. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Lowe’s since ‘07.
40. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.6 at Lowe’s since ‘08.
41. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 24.0 at Lowe’s since ‘08.
42. Max Papis… Started 32nd, finished 42nd at the May race, first career Cup start at Lowe’s.
43. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Lowe’s since ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Finished 37th in May race at Lowe’s and last year’s Oct race.
45. Mike Bliss… Started seventh in the May race at Lowe’s, start and parked- first Cup start at Lowe’s since ‘06.
46. Sterling Marlin… Likely start and park. Won in ‘01. Only six Cup starts this season. Started 26th, finished 31st in last year’s May race.
47. Michael McDowell… No career Cup stars at Lowe’s. Started sixth, finished 20th in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s.
48. Mike Wallace… Likely start and park. Started 40th, finished 31st in last year’s Oct race at Lowe’s. DNQ for seven of nine Cup races this season.

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