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Gentlemen, Roll Your Dice

Right. So Charlie says to Steve about 5 weeks ago, “We need a sucker to write up all the non-Chaser options for the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.” So Steve says, “Well, I owe Luke one, so let’s talk him into it. He’ll write anything, you know.”

So here we are. Suckered, er, convinced, into covering the 31 other possibilities for cracking the Top-10, and knocking Chasers into the lower points-per-position bracket.

Before we dig into what went down at Kansas, in terms of the Top-10 party, how about that finish? Sure, it wasn’t so hot until the last 50 or so laps, but from there on it was hammer down aggressiveness. All completed by a “Cole Trickle” style move for the win. Of course, that’s not the only time Cousin Carl has showed us an impression of Cole Trickle either. Anyone want to recall Michigan, and a little bit of screaming out of the pits?

On to the non-Chasers from Kansas.

Luke’s score from Kansas: 1 for 5. Let’s recap.

• Brian Vickers: 15th
• Mark Martin: 18th
• Beak: 19th
• Ryan Newman: 16th
• Elliott Sadler: 10th

At least we kept it in the top 20 this week.

It wasn’t all roses in the Top-10 however. It was only a 70% take for the Chasers.

Coming in with an 8th place showing was David Ragan, followed by A.J. Allmendinger in 9th, and the aforementioned Elliott Sadler closing out the Top-10.

If only Kasey Kahne had better studied Elliot’s setup, he wouldn’t have been 11 spots behind. Is it just me, or has the 9 team has been a bit behind the 8-ball since NASCAR reeled in the “crab walking” with the rear ends of the car? Maybe it’s just coincidence, but then again, maybe not.

So now we arrive at Talladega. Talk about a crapshoot. As we all know, anything can (and usually will) happen at Talladega. It’s the one track in the Chase that puts knots in Chasers stomachs, and boogeymen under their beds.

Here’s your three good options for ‘Dega, that not only have the chance of being in the Top-10 when the smoke clears, but also take an outside shot at the win:

Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and Kurt Busch.

OK, Vickers yet again. He’s performed pretty solid on the plate tracks, and his only win in the series came in this event in 2006.

David Ragan has surprisingly been a familiar face in the Top-10 for plate events as well this season, and the same goes for Kurt, despite an accident last July at Daytona.

When it comes to the plate tracks, just roll your dice. These tracks take more than stats into account, as one lone sneeze can kill a stat quicker than it takes to come out. That’s anywhere from 95 to 650 mph, according to Wikipedia, in case you were wondering.

That being the case, momentum on these types of tracks is important. Not just from recent weeks, but from recent plate races as well. And don’t let the qualifying results fool you. The chance of a Chaser hitting the pole is slim, as it’s an impound race and most teams in the Top-35 will be focusing solely on race runs. This is one place where you won’t hear teams talking about qualifying for track position, for once.

When the checkers fall, how will your dice roll have turned out? Will they be shaken up like the points could be?

Championship Changes Come in the Chase’s Round 4

Want to avoid big wrecks at Talladega Superspeedway?  Run up front.  If you can’t run up front, stay out of the pack as long as possible.

That’s the concensus of the opinions I’ve surveyed this week.  On our INSIDE ARCA radio show Tuesday night I asked our ARCA Insider,  Speed TV commentator and former Cup Series winner at Talladega, Phil Parsons how he would try to avoid the Big One.  Run up front, Phil said.

Later I asked  Patrick Donahue, crew chief for the Red Bull Toyota of Scott Speed and former member of the Jeff Gordon’s Rainbow Warriors, what advice he gives his “Dega drivers.  Patrick said, run up front.

Nine time ARCA RE/MAX Series champion and ARCA-Talladega winner,  Frank Kimmel said much the same.   At Talladega, whenever possible, get to the front. Early.  And stay there.

Six time Talladega Cup race winner Jeff Gordon agrees but did say that if you do get shuffled out of the lead, you have to look at the situation and decide if there are enough laps left for you to clear yourself of the pack and just ride around until the closing stages of the race before making your move.  This isn’t Gordon’s preferred strategy, but it is the one he used last year to win the race.

It’s a Gordon thing

Jeff Gordon’s six wins is a pretty good resume at any track.  The only driver with more at Talladega is the late Dale Earnhardt with ten.  Jeff Gordon has the best Loop Driver Rating for ‘Dega and only one guy has a better Ave Driver Rating - taking the season-to-date Dr and averaging it with the track specific stat.  And Gordon has run up front, leading a category best 301 laps (22.7 percent) in the last seven Talladega races.  Jeffy has the third best Ave Running Position for ‘Dega and the fourth best for the 2008 season.  Gordon is 113 points behind Jimmy Johnson.  He knows that he needs wins.  Jeff Gordon is the favorite this week.

Tony Stewart hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in him as a winner pick.  Tony and the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio have, for all intents, raced themselves out of the Sprint Cup championship picture.  But Stewart’s pack leader stats are strong and his history at Talladega, though winless, has been good.   His 94.4 ‘Dega Driver Rating trails only Gordon and Denny Hamlin.  Smoke has the best Ave Running Postion in the Alabama Loop races. 

Don’t forget the ex-champs

Kurt Busch runs up front too.  His Ave Finish of 10.6 is tops for Talladega.  Like Stewart, big Busch has great stats but no wins in the Cup Series at Talladega.  Also like Smoke, Kurt’s 2008 season makes picking him anywhere to win,  a stretch.  It could happen.  But you better get good odds to bet on it.

If there is a logical, stat based, alternative to Gordon as the pick to win this restrictor plate race, that pick would be Jimmy Johnson.  You would not be wrong to pick J J this week - maybe any week.  He has the best season-to-date Ave Running Position, the sixth best ‘Dega DR and the top DR average at 96.7.  He also won the last race at Kansas.  Johnson leads the points race and he’s been here before.

Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle haven’t been very good at Talladega,  Even combing their 2008 DR stats with the Talladega Loop data doesn’t pardon all of their sins.  All three have Ave DRs under 90.  Biffle’s is a dismal 81.8   Lightning in a bottle?  That would be an upset more special than anything Jimmy the Greek has cooked up.

The best bets for upset are Brian Vickers and Jamie McMurray.  Jamie’s DR is fourth best.  Vickers is fifth.  Brian is on an upswing.  Jamie - not so much.

I’ll take Gordon with Brian Vickers getting the nod as best dark-horse pick to win.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Welcome To The Talladega Jungle

Predicting Talladega is like buying a lottery ticket. Sometimes you win a buck, sometimes you win a little more – but most often you end up wasting money. Case in point the last 3 races at the track in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Back in 2005 Dale Jarrett came out of nowhere to steal the race, and Brian Vickers’ last lap “pass” that sent Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. spinning ruined a lot of days. Then we have the battle last season, in which Jeff Gordon made one of the gutsiest passes I’ve seen at a plate race to snag the win from Johnson with Tony Stewart right on his tail.

There is always a sort of feeling heading into the October Talladega race that you don’t feel in the spring. I’ve felt it for years, and the additions of the Chase have only heightened the anticipation, majesty, and… fear.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Brian Vickers
2005 – Dale Jarrett
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 24th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

As has been the trend in the Chase, Johnson’s 2006 run has been the aberration in how to win the championship. In this case as you can see, throw out that year and the champ will finish in the top 5 at Talladega. This year, that seems to show that some combination of Johnson, Carl Edwards, or Greg Biffle battling for the win. Some smart money would also be on Gordon, Dale Jr., or Kevin Harvick, as the Chevy track record is particularly strong.

Talladega is good for a few surprises in the top 10. In recent years, drivers such as Tony Raines, Jeff Green, and Brendan Gaughan all recorded surprisingly good finishes here. One driver to look for is Mike Wallace in a fourth RCR car. Wallace is widely considered one of the best plate racers, and this car could be really good, or really bad. That’s half the fun of sleepers! For those that have taken a chance on my heavy sleepers, first of all, I apologize. This week I’m going to step out on that limb with David Gilliland. He has run well at plate races, and good be racing for a job next year, given that Paul Menard is headed to the Yates team.

In case you didn’t guess by the title of the column, the Talladega theme song is “Welcome To The Jungle” by Guns N’ Roses. Reportedly the long-awaited album Chinese Democracy will be out November 25. Maybe we can get that free Dr Pepper after all.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Talladega Sunrise Part 2

Race Day. Up at 5:00am. Shower. Breakfast. Coffee, eggs, grits, ham with red eye gravy. I arrive at the track at 7:00am. We meet in the Media center coffee, doughnuts and cookies are available for the drivers and friends and family who have come along for support.

Check-in includes showing the confirmation letter and signing a one page release form. I have no clue what I really signed, I could’ve been giving away all my worldly possessions to some freaky cult. Aside from the check-in tables, there were about 20 rows of chairs in the room facing an approximately 52” flat screen TV on which they were running a DVD overview/ad for the Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure.

At 7:30am they asked us to have a seat. The future drivers were easy to spot -they sort of had that deer-in-the-headlights stare. I was strangely calm. When they started the class, I listened intently to how to find my line, when to shift, how to pass (there would be five other drivers on the track) and most importantly how to avoid kissing the wall. Each driver also would have an in-car instructor. He would be there to give me hand signals on how to drive and maybe a nudge or two to keep me in line. I studied the chart that had the hand signals on it that I would be receiving while on the track. Thumb left; move down; Thumb right: move up; Thumb up: Speed up; Thumb down: Slow down; Fist: Brake; One finger: Shift into first; Two fingers: Shift into second; Three fingers: Shift into third etc. After the class, everyone headed to the pits and were given a ride in the dualies to get the feel for the track. When you are down on the apron, Talladega looks like a wall. My first thought while riding around the apron was ‘No way I’m gonna be driving up there!’ Next my instructor drove up on the 33deg bank and stopped the truck dead. He wanted to show that it would not fall off the steep bank. I, however, had to hang on to the hand strap to keep from ending up in the instructor’s lap. I attentively watched how he moved on the track and got the feel for how to follow the line.

Afterwards, I headed over to the pit area to be fitted for a fire suit and helmet. Then, I went to a table that asked the one and only question of the day : “How tall are you?” I am apparently the same height as Joe Nemecheck because I was assigned to his car. The day was overcast and drizzly and there was a wet spot on the track that needed to be dried so
we were delayed until it was cleaned up. In the meantime, the instructors took all the friends and family members for rides around the track in the dualies. Finally, the time had come. I donned my skull cap and helmet and climbed into Joe’s car and the instructor told me to push the clutch all the way to the floor to make sure I could reach. Then the pit crew
strapped me in (although the guy in charge of connecting the buckle across my crotch was hesitant to reach down and latch me in.) ‘Uh I gotta ….’ He said, and gestured towards my nether regions. I chuckled and replied ‘Strap ‘er in!’ He gave the device one last pull and reached over and turned the ignition on. The car rumbled to a start. The pit crew walked
around the car giving it a final once over then gave the ‘O.K’ to move out.

The next thing I saw, was my instructor’s index finger in my peripheral vision (The sign to shift into first) I was on my way. I drove around the apron gaining speed ; Thumb right; up I went. The Thumbs up: Oh man! Here I go! I pushed my foot down and felt the car speed up. 100mph. I watched the wall coming at me as I constantly guided the wheel left. 120mph.

Lap2: The wall seemed to always be directly in front of me. Keep steering left. At that moment, I was totally convinced that I would hit the wall soon. I felt the icy coldness that turns into paralyzing fear. ‘OMG!’ I thought, ‘I can’t do this! Get me the Hell off this track before I kill myself!’ But then, I remembered that icy road in Kentucky and all the fear melted away. The instructor gave the wheel a little nudge and I focused on my line.

Lap 3: I settled in and started to get the hang of where to move the car. 150mph.

Lap 4: Thumb Left. My car is merrily moving up the track where it wants to be and now I have to move it down to pass someone. Slight nudge. ‘O.K! O.K! I’m moving! Whew! That’s over!’ I’m thinking, ‘I’m nervous out here with five other drivers, I can’t imagine what it would be like with 43 cars out here. Wow.’ I consider the fact that in most sports the participant is pretty confident that they will walk away after it’s over. A race car driver knows there is always a chance they won’t.

Lap 5: Thumb Up. I push down on the accelerator. At this point, the lines on the track appear like dots. Very focused. My instructor gives a nudge to the right on the wheel. I am suddenly right up against the wall. You know - where they said not to go. WTF? Then…

Lap 6: Thumb Up Going faster. Thinking about the speed. The car in it’s line. Checkered Flag. 163mph. Thumb Left. I veer down onto the apron. Thumb Down. I take my foot off the accelerator and feel the car coast.

Turning into the pits. Hard Fist: I put my foot on the brake and come to a stop just barely missing a flustered pit crew member. I’m laughing. My instructor is laughing. He says, “It’s not as easy as it looks!” I reply, “Oh Hell No!”

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - ON PIT ROW

Talladega Sunrise Part 1

It was February in Northwest Ohio. A time plagued with seemingly endless weeks of cold, wind, sleet and snow. As often happens that time of year, I had thoughts of heading south .

I had won a three lap ride from The Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure and going to Alabama for a few days of relief from the ‘Great White North’ was very appealing. Besides…Racing…So I gave the DJRA base camp in North Carolina call and made a reservation. Then, I decided that a 3-lap ride just wasn’t for me– so I upgraded to a 6 lap drive. I mean, if I was just looking for speed I’d go hop on a roller coaster. I mean how many chances will I get to drive a Cup car?

My drive was scheduled for the 7:30am session on a Saturday so I decided to drive down on Thursday and have time to acclimate myself to the area. It’s approximately a 12 hr drive from where I live to Talladega, so figuring in stops for food, gas, etc. I decided to get up and head out about 4:00am. Now my brain starts processing the reality that I am actually going to be driving a race car on Talladega Superspeedway. It seems unreal. I’m conjuring up mental worse case scenarios. It’s been a while since I’ve driven a stick and I keep hearing that the clutch in these cars is tricky. So I’m picturing myself stalling endlessly in the pits trying to get out on the track. Or maybe I’ll freak out and slam the damn thing into the wall. Possibly, I’ll simply be a wuss and not get the car over 80mph …..Nah….

As it turns out, the ride down to Alabama was far more frightening than driving a cup car. Cruising along I75 at about 75mph most of the way things were looking good very few slow downs due to construction, the traffic was moving fluidly except for the steady sprinkling of rain everything was going smoothly-that should’ve been my first warning. Suddenly, about 20m from the border of Tennessee the black pick-up truck directly in front of me abruptly veers off an slams into the side of the mountain and flips over on its cab. I take my foot off the accelerator and let the car coast. I can feel the tires wanting to slide sideways. In a matter of seconds, the road has become one gigantic skating rink. In front of me are a row of semis not driving more than 5mph heading down a steep downgrade and all along the sides of both south and north bound I75 are vehicles waylaid by the road conditions. (I stopped counting after 8).

One hour and five white knuckle miles later, the road is clear as if there was never any ice at all. It was at that moment that any trepidations I was experiencing about Talladega melted away. After all, in the Cup car, I would be protected by a steel roll cage, strapped in by a Hans device, protected by a helmet, Safer Barriers and surrounded by various other safety precautions not included in your standard passenger vehicle traveling down your local highway. When I arrived, I spent the evening just chillin’.

On Friday morning, I left my hotel and headed over to the track so I could time how long it takes to get there (I so totally don’t want to be late on Saturday). While there, I visited the International Motorsports Hall of Fame and Museum. In the silence of being the only one there and looking at the cars of legends and personal favorites like Richard Petty, Fireball Roberts, Bill Elliott, Shawna Robinson, Patty Moise and Louise Smith, I felt like I was in church. I was keenly aware of the rawness of the inside of the vehicle, thinking of a person rattling around in a sparsely padded passenger compartment for hours sometimes in unbearable heat was awe inspiring. (especially after how uncomfortable I felt after my 12 hours in a cushy vehicle) I took it all in like an unspoken prayer. Then, in a moment of pure orneriness, I grab my cell phone “Hey Steve, guess who’s car I’m standing in front of right now? I’ll give you a hint: he holds the fastest Qualifying record…” (He’s a big Bill Elliott fan) Yeah, I had to rub it in.

Part two tomorrow. Come on back.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - ON PIT ROW

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