• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Fantasy Racing
• Contact Us

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Welcome to the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It is now crunch time for the 12 drivers who made the cut as well as fantasy owners looking to capture their own victory.

Of the 10 tracks that make up the Chase schedule, eight of them have hosted races earlier in the season. I have compiled a table with the results of those eight events and ranked the top-26 drivers by their average finish. Check out my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table here.

One thing you will notice right away is how many of the top drivers fared poorly at Talladega Superspeedway. We know anything can happen there. Things also got a little messy at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. For owners in allocation formats, like Yahoo!, these are two races where you can converse your remaining starts for the top drivers.

Starting position is huge at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. There have been a total of 29 Sprint Cup races runs held here, the winner has started 15th or better 21 times. Over the last three years (seven races), five winners have started 11th or better. The other two winners, Kurt Busch in June of last year and Joey Logano in this year’s June race, came from the middle of the pack but picked up their wins when the race was called early due to rain.

New Hampshire is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville Speedway, but the most recent race held there was back in March. Richmond International Raceway is also a flat race track so last week’s results are far more relevant. Fantasy owners should set their lineups simply based on who’s hot entering the Chase.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Good qualifier. Average finish of 6.3 over the last five Loudon races, all top-10 finishes. Started third or fourth in three of his last four attempts at NH, led over 90 laps in the last two. Average running position of 5.0 in June. Two-time winner (’03 sweep). Y!-A1
2. Tony Stewart… Last nine races at Loudon: only one finish worse than 13th, laps led in seven. Finished fifth in June. Average finish of 3.8 over the last four September races at NH. Two-time winner (’00, ‘05). Y!-B1
3. Denny Hamlin… Good qualifier. Seven career starts at Loudon: average finish of 8.3, has never finished worse than 15th, which he did in June. Average finish of 8.5 in ‘08 NH races. Has never started worse than 14th. Won in ‘07. Y!-B2
4. Mark Martin… Started 11th, finished 14th in June race at Loudon, average running position: 9.0- first start at NH since ‘06. Y!-A2
5. Kurt Busch… Started fourth, finished third in June. Average finish of 3.5 last year at Loudon, including a win. Three-time winner (’04 sweep, 06/08) Y!-B3
6. Jeff Gordon… Started and finished second in June, led 62 laps. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 Loudon races. Runner-up in both ‘07 races. Owns 11 finishes of first, second or third in 29 career starts. Three-time winner (’97, ‘98). Y!-A3
7. Kyle Busch… Finished seventh in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 29.5 in ‘08 NH races, 7.5 in ‘07- led laps in both. Won in ‘06. Y!-A4
8. Kasey Kahne… Started 13th, finished 10th in June. Started 13th, finished 11th in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-B4
9. Greg Biffle… Finished 18th in June race at Loudon. Won last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 4.5 in the last four September NH races.
10. Brian Vickers… Risky play. Finished 35th in June (accident) and in last year’s Sylvania 300. 11 career starts: 21.0 average finish. Y!-B5
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best 12th in June race at Loudon. Y!-B6
12. Ryan Newman… Average running position of 17th in June race at Loudon, finished 29th and led 17 laps. DNF and 15th-place finish last year. Average finish of 9.5 in ‘07 races, led laps in both. Two-time winner (’02, ‘05). Y!-B7
13. Kevin Harvick… Finished a career-worst 34th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘08 NH races. Won from the pole in ‘06.
14. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Good qualifier. Finished 13th in June race at Loudon, fifth in last year’s Sylvania 300- led 79 laps. Led laps in both ‘07 and ‘08 NH races- average finish of 12.3 in those four races. Started fourth and fifth last year. Y!-B8
15. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Has improved career-best finish at Loudon in each of his five starts. Finished a career-best fourth in June.
16. Carl Edwards… Risky play. Finished 19th in June race at Loudon, third in last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘07 NH races.
17. Jeff Burton… Finished 31st in June race at Loudon, worst finish since a blown engine in ‘03. Average finish of 10.5 in the 10 races in between. Four-time winner (’97-’00).
18. Matt Kenseth… Finished 22nd in June race at Loudon. DNF (accident) and 18th-place finish last year. Ten top-10 finishes in the prior 11 races (’02-’07).
19. Joey Logano… Won in rain-shortened June race at Loudon but an average running position of 21st. Started 40th, finished 32nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Won the pole, finished second in June Nationwide race. Won both ‘07 Camping World East Series races.
20. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Started 26th, finished a career-best eighth in June race at Loudon- average running position of 13th. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘08 NH races. Y!-C1
21. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. DNF in June race at Loudon, snapping a streak of four straight top-10 finishes- average finish of 4.75 in that span.
22. Marcos Ambrose… Finished 23rd in June race, first career start at Loudon. Finished 14th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Clint Bowyer… Seven career starts at Loudon: one top-10 finish, a win from the pole in ‘07. Average finish of 23.6 in the six other NH races.
24. Casey Mears… Weak value play. Finished 11th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 20th.
25. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Finished 21st in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08 NH races, 20.0 in ‘07. Y!-C3
26. Reed Sorenson… Weak value play. Seven career starts at Loudon: 18.0 average finish. Finished 17th in June race, 22nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 25.2 over the last five starts at Loudon.
28. AJ Allmendinger… Finished 32nd in June race at Loudon, two DNFs in ‘08. Finished 33rd in lone ‘07 NH start.
29. Jamie McMurray… Three straight finishes of 33rd or worse at Loudon, average finish of 13.5 in ‘07 NH races.
30. David Ragan… DNFs (accidents) in two of his last three starts at Loudon. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07 NH races. Finished sixth in last year’s Nationwide race.
31. Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th in June race at Loudon, 25th in last year’s Sylvania 300.
32. Robby Gordon… Won in ‘01. Finished 25th in June race at Loudon, 26th in both ‘07 NH races.
33. John Andretti… Finished 16th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 30th.
34. Erik Darnell… Finished sixth in June Nationwide race at Loudon, average finish of 5.0 in three Truck series races (’06-’08).
35. Aric Almirola… Average finish of 20.5 in ‘08 races at Loudon.
36. Paul Menard… Finished 30th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 28.6 in five career NH starts.
37. David Stremme… Finished 28th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘07 NH races.
38. Scott Speed… Finished 36th (DNF, accident) in June race, first career start at Loudon. Started fourth, finished eighth in June Nationwide race.
39. Joe Nemechek… DNFs in four of his last seven starts at Loudon. Won in ‘99.
40. Patrick Carpentier… DNF (accident) in June race at Loudon.
41. Dave Blaney… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
42. David Gilliland… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
43. Tony Raines… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
44. Dexter Bean… No career starts at Loudon.
45. Mike Wallace… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘05, average finish of 17.6 in eight Nationwide starts.
46. Derrike Cope… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘03. DNF in June Nationwide race at Loudon.

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Copyright © 2010 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!