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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Tony Stewart	1	13.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	1	13.82
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.46
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.00
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.54
Eric McGuire	free agent	Tony Stewart	1	15.11
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Tony Stewart	1	12.21
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	22	15.68
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.07
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	1	11.86
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.39
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.93
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.64
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	2	11.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.64
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Tony Stewart	1	9.50
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.50

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Clint Bowyer	26	11.25
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	26	15.54
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	David Reutimann	28	17.61
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	15	15.71
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jeff Burton	13	15.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	26	14.89
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	21	15.61
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	14.25
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Paul Mennard	20	20.82
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	26	17.18
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	26	11.29
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	16	15.11
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	24	15.11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	3	13.79
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	26	12.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Martin Truex Jr	16	14.11
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	14	16.36
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	21	14.89

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon 2 - Sylvania 300

On Sunday afternoon–for the second and final time this season–the Sprint Cup Series will visit New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Sylvania 300, the second race in the 2011 Chase. After last week’s wild ending in Chicago, the points standings may get shaken up once again on Sunday at “The Magic Mile,” as you never know what’s going to happen on the small race tracks, where racing is tight all around. A fuel mileage race could happen once again as well, as we saw last fall when NASCAR’s most recent winner ran out of fuel on the last lap of this event in 2010.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Ryan Newman started on the pole, led 125 of the 301 laps, and went to victory lane with teammate Tony Stewart following him to the stripe. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top 5. Newman is the only driver in the series to post top 10 finishes in both races at New Hampshire in 2009 as well as the first race here this season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Sylvania 300:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother had the best car last week but came home 6th, and this week the Cup series is visiting one of his better tracks, and the site of three of Kurt’s twenty-three career wins. Over the last five races at Loudon, no driver has a better average driver rating or a better average finish than Kurt Busch. Since his win here in June of 2008, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 13th and hasn’t had a driver rating under 91.7. In the flat track races this season, Busch has started in the top 5 in all five of them and has just one finish outside of the top 10.

2. Jeff Gordon - No one has really been as dominant on the flat tracks this season as Jeff Gordon. He won at Phoenix in February, won at Pocono in June, and finished 2nd at Indianapolis in July. At the series’ first stop at Loudon this season, Gordon finished 11th after starting 7th, and at the last flat track race (Pocono in August), he finished 6th despite starting deep in the pack (31st). At “The Magic Mile,” Jeff owns an average finish of 11th and three victories. In thirty-three starts he has just six finishes outside of the top 20, and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since 2005. Expect this #24 team to rebound after that weak showing in Chicago on Monday.

3. Jimmie Johnson - In the last 19 flat track races, “Five Time” owns fifteen top 10 finishes and three wins. Of those fifteen top 10s, twelve were also top 5s. At New Hampshire, Johnson has visited victory lane three times in nineteen career starts and owns an average finish of 9.6. Recently, Jimmie has posted three top 5s in the last four races at Loudon and has just one finish outside of the top 10 here since 2006. He has the third-best average driver rating of the past five races here and has finished in the top 5 in all but one of the flat track races during this 2011 season.

4. Ryan Newman - With The Rocketman’s 8th-place finish at Chicagoland, he now has five top 10 finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races and a worst finish of 20th. I personally do not think that he has a chance of winning this year’s chase, but with a win at Loudon on Sunday, Newman could turn me–and probably some others–into a believer. He is the most recent winner at this race track and you have to consider Ryan one of the best flat track racers in the series: in the five events on them this season, he has a win, three top 5s, and a worst finish of 12th. At New Hampshire specifically, Newman owns three visits to victory lane and thirteen top 10s in nineteen starts. He hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the last four races here and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.

5. Tony Stewart - After last week’s surprising (to me anyway) victory in Chicago, look for “Smoke” to have another good result in New Hampshire this weekend. Stewart has made twenty-five career starts at “The Magic Mile” and has found himself in victory lane twice. His average finish here is 12th and Tony has the second-best average driver rating at this track over the last five races. He’s finished 2nd in two of the last three races at Loudon and in the other race–where he finished 24th–Stewart was leading on the last lap but ran out of fuel. He has started in the top 5 in four of the last five races at New Hampshire and “Smoke” has finished 11th or better in four of the five flat track races this season. If he wants to make a serious run at the championship this season, Tony Stewart will need a good run this weekend, and I think it will happen.

6. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had engine woes here in July, but before that Kyle Busch ran off four consecutive top 11 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This is nowhere near his best track on the circuit (his average finish is 16.3 at Loudon) but Busch won here in 2006 and has been great on the flat tracks this season–excluding the first visit to this track–with top 3 finishes at Pocono twice as well as Phoenix in February. This team has stumbled recently (one top 10 in the last four Sprint Cup races) so make sure the #18 Toyota looks good in practice before committing to Kyle Busch on Sunday.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has had his fair share of struggles at New Hampshire but his average finish of 14.2 here isn’t too shabby (and actually ranks him 9th of all active drivers). He won from the pole here in 2006 and before his stumble here in July, Harvick had back-to-back top 5 finishes at this race track. As usual, don’t expect a good qualifying effort from the 29 team (just one start better than 18th in the last five races here) but a good finish should be expected. This year at the flat tracks, Harvick has recorded top 5s at Phoenix and Pocono and an 11th at Indianapolis.

8. Carl Edwards - He has just two top 10s in fourteen career starts at Loudon, but if Cousin Carl is going to make a legitimate run at the championship–which I think he will do–he will have to turn his luck around at this race track. He’s not terrible here, as shown with his 14.4 average finish, but he will need a run on Sunday similar to his efforts here in 2008 and 2006, where Carl finished in the top 5. In his career here, Edwards has just one finish outside of the top 20, so he’s very consistent, but he just needs to run a little better to get a third top 10 at “The Magic Mile.” I think that will happen on Sunday, as the #99 Ford has been pretty fast at the flat tracks this season.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is a very consistent driver (just one finish worse than 16th since early mid-July) but he hasn’t really put up top 10s–instead, Earnhardt usually finishes in the mid-teens. He lucked into a top 5 at Chicago on Monday, but I think the fan favorite will legitimately have a top 10 run this weekend. In the last six Loudon races, Junior has three top 10 finishes and just one finish outside of the top 15. What’s better yet is how good this team has been on the flat tracks in 2011: two top 10s at Pocono, a 10th at Phoenix, and a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. The last time the series visited Loudon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came home in 15th after starting 27th.

10. Denny Hamlin - I know Denny’s history at this track is very impressive–which I will get to in a little bit–but let’s be honest: this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and despite having solid top 10 runs before last week’s disaster in Chicago, they probably should have finished better in those races. Now to Hamlin’s record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In eleven career starts at this track, Denny has a series-best average finish of 7.2 and one win. He has never finished worse than 15th here and Hamlin has completed every single lap ran in the events he has participated at “The Magic Mile.” If he looks great in practice, I’ll rank him a little higher, but as of now Hamlin is just a top 10 driver in my mind. He has just one top 10 finish in the five flat track races this season.

11. Brad Keselowski - He got another top 5 finish at Chicagoland on Monday, but let’s face it: BK was a top 15 car at best and the fuel mileage factor played right into his hand. Going into the race this weekend, I’m ranking Keselowski conservatively at 11th, but I think he has the potential to score a top 10 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Brad’s first ever start here in 2009 left him with a 6th-place showing, and in the last two races here–despite ending in disappointing finishes (18th and 35th)–he has started in the top 5 both times. He’s not great at the flat tracks by any means but Keselowski won at Pocono in August and finished 9th at Indianapolis after starting 5th. If he looks good in practice, expect a solid showing from Brad on Sunday.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer was another beneficiary of the fuel situation in Chicago, as he got a top 10 finish out of it. Clint’s record at New Hampshire isn’t stellar (16.2 average finish in eleven starts) but he does have two victories here and is the defending winner of this race, although that was due to his Tony Stewart’s fuel woes on the last lap. Bowyer hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2008 and owns three top 10s in that span of five races. If he gets a little luck on Sunday, Clint could get a top 10 finish, but I think he will end up right where he has at the flat tracks all season long: in the teens.

13. Mark Martin - Look what we have here: for the first time in the 2011 season, Mark Martin has back-to-back top 10 finishes and the series is coming into one of his best tracks on the circuit. In twenty-nine career starts at Loudon, Mark owns fourteen top 10s and he visited victory lane here in 2009. Of all those starts, Martin only has five finishes outside of the top 20. However, three of those five have came in the last three events here. I don’t think he’ll be that bad this weekend, though. In the five flat track races this season, Martin has three finishes of 13th or better and a worst finish of 22nd. With a little luck, Martin could record his third top 10 in a row on Sunday,

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - It’s a pretty risky pick but if nothing goes wrong for this #56 team, a top 15 should be a lock for Martin Truex, Jr. on Sunday. He finished 8th here in July and in the four races in 2007 and 2008, Martin finished in the top 10 in all of them. This team struggled at Indianapolis with their 24th-place finish, but in the other flat track races in 2011, Truex has been a top 15 car every time. I expect that to happen once again in New Hampshire on Sunday,

15. Greg Biffle - Another risky pick this weekend will be The Biff. It’s almost getting ridiculous how much bad luck this team has run into this season despite having very good race cars. At New Hampshire, Biffle has finished 18th or better in seven of the last eight races and he won here in 2008. The last three events at Loudon have ended with Greg in 16th, 17th, and 18th, and in the flat track races in 2011, this team has come away with four top 20s in five races. I expect the #16 Ford to end up in the mid-teens when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Those To Avoid Entering The Sylvania 300:

Matt Kenseth - The last-lap penalty in Chicago on Monday is really the last thing that Matt Kenseth needed because after the race in New Hampshire this weekend, his championship chances may be all but dead. In fact, Ryan Rantz has already stuck a fork in him (click here to read). Kenseth hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at Loudon since 2007, and hasn’t even really been close since then either–his best driver rating in the last seven races here has been 82.4. Matt finished 20th here in July.

Kasey Kahne - I’ve completely written off both Red Bull Racing drivers for the remainder of the season. Talk to me about Kahne next season when he’s driving for Hendrick. Kasey finished 6th here in July but his overall record at Loudon isn’t very stellar: only one top 5 in fifteen career starts and an average finish of 18th.

Brian Vickers - See what I said above about the Red Bull drivers. The last four races at New Hampshire have ended with Vickers finishing 34th, 11th, 35th, and 35th. He has one top 10 in twelve career starts at “The Magic Mile” and an average finish of 23rd. I’ll pass.

Bobby Labonte - He finished 7th here in July but don’t expect anything close to that this weekend out of Bobby Labonte. His driver rating during that race was just 24th-best, and that’s the finish, and that’s also his average finish at “The Magic Mile” over the last five races here. Expect a mid-20s finish out of Labonte this weekend–as usual.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	25	16.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	24	11.26
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	9	10.33
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Tony Stewart	24	13.11
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	14.81
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	2	11.93
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.07
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	24	14.11
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	24	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	11.26
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.44
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	11	15.93
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	25	13.26
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	9	13.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	9	14.15
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.52
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.81
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	2	16.19

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from Loudon

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.81
James Jones	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	12.78
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Ryan Newman	8	20.44
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.59
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	29	15.30
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinRyan Newman	298	14.2213.96
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.07
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.26
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	35	12.33
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Ryan Newman	8	12.33
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Martin Truex Jr	20	13.89
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.67
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.70
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	18.59
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	12.04
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	19.07
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	35	11.74

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway

The braking skills needed to succeed at New Hampshire Motor Speedway also apply to the other flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway and Richmond International Raceway, the site of last week’s race.

For those of you that want to play an all-new (and free) fantasy NASCAR game during the Chase for the Sprint Cup, check out the Onebadwheel Fantasy NASCAR Racing Cheatsheet Driver vs. Driver game!
Don’t agree with my rankings? Leave your comments below!

Chasing the pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

1.  Juan Pablo Montoya… Winner of two straight poles at Loudon.
2. Kurt Busch… Qualified third in his last two attempts at Loudon.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings:

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Denny Hamlin… Won 7/07 race at Loudon. Average finish of 8.2 in nine career starts at Loudon, has never finished worse than 15th. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner (6/10, 03 sweep) at Loudon. Average running position of eighth or better in seven straight. Y!-A2
3. Kurt Busch… Three-time winner (6/08, 04 sweep) at Loudon. Average finish of 3.8 since 08. Y!-A3
4. Jeff Gordon… Three-time winner (8/98, 9/97, 7/95) at Loudon. Average finish of 8.2 in the last 10, runner-up three times. Y!-A4
5. Kevin Harvick… Won 9/06 race at Loudon. Finished fifth in June, average running position of 14th. Y!-B1
6. Kyle Busch… Won 7/06 race at Loudon, average finish of 7.7 in the last three.
7. Jeff Burton… Four-time winner (9/00, 7/99, 7/98, 7/97) at Loudon. Average running position of fifth in June and led 89 laps, finished 12th. Y!-B2
8. Clint Bowyer… Won 9/07 race at Loudon. Average running position of 15th or better in six straight at Loudon, two straight Top 10s. Y!-B3
9. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of 13th or better in four straight at Loudon, ran fourth last Sept, sixth in June.
10. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (7/05, 7/00) at Loudon, average finish of 9.0 in 11 starts since 05.
11. Ryan Newman… Two-time winner (9/05, 9/02) at Loudon. Average running position of 10th in two straight. Y!-B4
12. Greg Biffle… Won 9/08 race at Loudon. Finished ninth in last year’s September race.
13. Kasey Kahne… Average running position of 12th or better in three of the last four at Loudon. Y!-B5
14. Carl Edwards… Only two Top 10s in 12 career starts at Loudon.
15. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 20.6 in the last three at Loudon. Y!-B6
16. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished a career-best 10th in June at Loudon. Y!-C1
17. Joey Logano… Won 6/09 race at Loudon, finished ninth in June. Y!-B7
18. Jamie McMurray… Has finished 18th in two straight at Loudon. Y!-B8
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average running position of 13th or better in eight straight at Loudon, finished eighth in June.
20. David Reutimann… Four straight Top 15 finishes at Loudon, one Top Five.
21. Mark Martin… Won 9/09 race at Loudon, finished 21st in June.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 4.8 from 07-08 at Loudon, 26.0 in the last three.
23. Marcos Ambrose… Average running position of 20th in two straight at Loudon.
24. Brad Keselowski… Average running positions of 23rd and 25th in two career starts at Loudon.
25. Reed Sorenson… Finished 24th in June at Loudon. Y!-C2
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 29.3 in seven career starts at Loudon. Y!-C3
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.8 in 23 career starts at Loudon.
28. Robby Gordon… Won 11/01 race at Loudon. Average finish of 25.5 in last four at Loudon (08-09). Y!-C4
29. David Ragan… Average finish of 27.6 in seven career starts at Loudon.
30. Casey Mears… Finished 29th in June at Loudon, 11th and 13th last year.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 27.4 in five career starts at Loudon.
32. Scott Speed… Average finish of 31.3 in three career starts at Loudon.
33. Regan Smith… Average finish of 29.7 in six career starts at Loudon.
34. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 30.3 in six career starts at Loudon (05-08).
35. Jeff Green… Average finish of 24.7 in 15 career starts at Loudon (1997-2007).
36. Bobby Labonte… Finished 30th in June at Loudon.
37. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 28.5 in 21 career starts at Loudon.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 35.3 in seven career starts at Loudon.
39. Tony Raines… Average finish of 29.9 in eight career starts at Loudon.
40. Andy Lally… Possible start and park.
41. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Won 9/99 race at Loudon.
42. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
44. Todd Bodine… Likely start and park.
45. Scott Riggs… Likely start and park.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	15	8.0
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	15	8.08
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Mark Martin	1	10.31
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Denny Hamlin	2	10.62
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	4	10.65
Dennis Michelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	1	10.85
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	4	11.65
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Kurt Busch	6	11.77
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	14	12.5
Eric Brewer		Jimmie Johnson	4	12.77
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	12.77
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Jimmie Johnson	4	12.88
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	13.42
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Denny Hamlin	2	14.19
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	4	15.04
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	4	16.62
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	17	18.69

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Welcome to the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It is now crunch time for the 12 drivers who made the cut as well as fantasy owners looking to capture their own victory.

Of the 10 tracks that make up the Chase schedule, eight of them have hosted races earlier in the season. I have compiled a table with the results of those eight events and ranked the top-26 drivers by their average finish. Check out my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table here.

One thing you will notice right away is how many of the top drivers fared poorly at Talladega Superspeedway. We know anything can happen there. Things also got a little messy at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. For owners in allocation formats, like Yahoo!, these are two races where you can converse your remaining starts for the top drivers.

Starting position is huge at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. There have been a total of 29 Sprint Cup races runs held here, the winner has started 15th or better 21 times. Over the last three years (seven races), five winners have started 11th or better. The other two winners, Kurt Busch in June of last year and Joey Logano in this year’s June race, came from the middle of the pack but picked up their wins when the race was called early due to rain.

New Hampshire is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville Speedway, but the most recent race held there was back in March. Richmond International Raceway is also a flat race track so last week’s results are far more relevant. Fantasy owners should set their lineups simply based on who’s hot entering the Chase.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Good qualifier. Average finish of 6.3 over the last five Loudon races, all top-10 finishes. Started third or fourth in three of his last four attempts at NH, led over 90 laps in the last two. Average running position of 5.0 in June. Two-time winner (’03 sweep). Y!-A1
2. Tony Stewart… Last nine races at Loudon: only one finish worse than 13th, laps led in seven. Finished fifth in June. Average finish of 3.8 over the last four September races at NH. Two-time winner (’00, ‘05). Y!-B1
3. Denny Hamlin… Good qualifier. Seven career starts at Loudon: average finish of 8.3, has never finished worse than 15th, which he did in June. Average finish of 8.5 in ‘08 NH races. Has never started worse than 14th. Won in ‘07. Y!-B2
4. Mark Martin… Started 11th, finished 14th in June race at Loudon, average running position: 9.0- first start at NH since ‘06. Y!-A2
5. Kurt Busch… Started fourth, finished third in June. Average finish of 3.5 last year at Loudon, including a win. Three-time winner (’04 sweep, 06/08) Y!-B3
6. Jeff Gordon… Started and finished second in June, led 62 laps. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 Loudon races. Runner-up in both ‘07 races. Owns 11 finishes of first, second or third in 29 career starts. Three-time winner (’97, ‘98). Y!-A3
7. Kyle Busch… Finished seventh in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 29.5 in ‘08 NH races, 7.5 in ‘07- led laps in both. Won in ‘06. Y!-A4
8. Kasey Kahne… Started 13th, finished 10th in June. Started 13th, finished 11th in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-B4
9. Greg Biffle… Finished 18th in June race at Loudon. Won last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 4.5 in the last four September NH races.
10. Brian Vickers… Risky play. Finished 35th in June (accident) and in last year’s Sylvania 300. 11 career starts: 21.0 average finish. Y!-B5
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best 12th in June race at Loudon. Y!-B6
12. Ryan Newman… Average running position of 17th in June race at Loudon, finished 29th and led 17 laps. DNF and 15th-place finish last year. Average finish of 9.5 in ‘07 races, led laps in both. Two-time winner (’02, ‘05). Y!-B7
13. Kevin Harvick… Finished a career-worst 34th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘08 NH races. Won from the pole in ‘06.
14. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Good qualifier. Finished 13th in June race at Loudon, fifth in last year’s Sylvania 300- led 79 laps. Led laps in both ‘07 and ‘08 NH races- average finish of 12.3 in those four races. Started fourth and fifth last year. Y!-B8
15. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Has improved career-best finish at Loudon in each of his five starts. Finished a career-best fourth in June.
16. Carl Edwards… Risky play. Finished 19th in June race at Loudon, third in last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘07 NH races.
17. Jeff Burton… Finished 31st in June race at Loudon, worst finish since a blown engine in ‘03. Average finish of 10.5 in the 10 races in between. Four-time winner (’97-’00).
18. Matt Kenseth… Finished 22nd in June race at Loudon. DNF (accident) and 18th-place finish last year. Ten top-10 finishes in the prior 11 races (’02-’07).
19. Joey Logano… Won in rain-shortened June race at Loudon but an average running position of 21st. Started 40th, finished 32nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Won the pole, finished second in June Nationwide race. Won both ‘07 Camping World East Series races.
20. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Started 26th, finished a career-best eighth in June race at Loudon- average running position of 13th. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘08 NH races. Y!-C1
21. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. DNF in June race at Loudon, snapping a streak of four straight top-10 finishes- average finish of 4.75 in that span.
22. Marcos Ambrose… Finished 23rd in June race, first career start at Loudon. Finished 14th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Clint Bowyer… Seven career starts at Loudon: one top-10 finish, a win from the pole in ‘07. Average finish of 23.6 in the six other NH races.
24. Casey Mears… Weak value play. Finished 11th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 20th.
25. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Finished 21st in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08 NH races, 20.0 in ‘07. Y!-C3
26. Reed Sorenson… Weak value play. Seven career starts at Loudon: 18.0 average finish. Finished 17th in June race, 22nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 25.2 over the last five starts at Loudon.
28. AJ Allmendinger… Finished 32nd in June race at Loudon, two DNFs in ‘08. Finished 33rd in lone ‘07 NH start.
29. Jamie McMurray… Three straight finishes of 33rd or worse at Loudon, average finish of 13.5 in ‘07 NH races.
30. David Ragan… DNFs (accidents) in two of his last three starts at Loudon. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07 NH races. Finished sixth in last year’s Nationwide race.
31. Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th in June race at Loudon, 25th in last year’s Sylvania 300.
32. Robby Gordon… Won in ‘01. Finished 25th in June race at Loudon, 26th in both ‘07 NH races.
33. John Andretti… Finished 16th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 30th.
34. Erik Darnell… Finished sixth in June Nationwide race at Loudon, average finish of 5.0 in three Truck series races (’06-’08).
35. Aric Almirola… Average finish of 20.5 in ‘08 races at Loudon.
36. Paul Menard… Finished 30th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 28.6 in five career NH starts.
37. David Stremme… Finished 28th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘07 NH races.
38. Scott Speed… Finished 36th (DNF, accident) in June race, first career start at Loudon. Started fourth, finished eighth in June Nationwide race.
39. Joe Nemechek… DNFs in four of his last seven starts at Loudon. Won in ‘99.
40. Patrick Carpentier… DNF (accident) in June race at Loudon.
41. Dave Blaney… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
42. David Gilliland… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
43. Tony Raines… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
44. Dexter Bean… No career starts at Loudon.
45. Mike Wallace… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘05, average finish of 17.6 in eight Nationwide starts.
46. Derrike Cope… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘03. DNF in June Nationwide race at Loudon.

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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