Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Homestead - Ford 400
November 16, 2011
Well, this it it. It’s been a fun 2011 season, and this Sunday champions will finally be crowned–both in NASCAR as well as fantasy leagues worldwide. We will have the normal schedule this weekend: two practices on Friday, qualifying Saturday, and then the race on Sunday. I would like to quickly thank everyone that took the time to read my articles this season, and I hope you continue reading next year. Now without further ado, my final fantasy preview for the 2011 NASCAR season…
During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*
1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.
2. Tony Stewart - Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.
3. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.
4. Kasey Kahne - I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.
5. Matt Kenseth - It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.
6. A.J. Allmendinger - Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.
7. Jimmie Johnson - I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.
8. Kyle Busch - I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.
9. Martin Truex, Jr. - Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.
10. Greg Biffle - The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.
11. Jeff Burton - All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.
12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.
13. Kurt Busch - If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.
14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.
15. Trevor Bayne - Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.
Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:
Brian Vickers - I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”
David Reutimann - What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.
Marcos Ambrose - I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 - Kobalt Tools 500
November 9, 2011
As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.
During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*
1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.
2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.
3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.
4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.
5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…
6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.
7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.
8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.
9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.
10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).
11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.
12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.
13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.
14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.
Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.
David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.
Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas 2 - AAA Texas 500
November 2, 2011
I hope you enjoyed last Sunday’s caution-filled race at Martinsville Speedway because this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway will, more than likely, be what I like to call a snooze-fest. What’s good for fantasy owners, though, is that the practice schedule for this event is back to “normal.” There will be one session on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying at 4:30 eastern time. Then, on Saturday, two more practices will be held where all of the cars will be in race trim, so average practice speeds shouldn’t be skewed much. The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled to start around 3:30 pm eastern time on Sunday.
During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*
1. Matt Kenseth - Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.
2. Carl Edwards - If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).
3. Jimmie Johnson - I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.
4. Greg Biffle - If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.
5. Denny Hamlin - This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.
6. Tony Stewart - This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.
7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.
8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.
9. Mark Martin - Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.
10. Jeff Burton - Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.
11. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.
12. Clint Bowyer - Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).
13. Kasey Kahne - In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.
14. David Ragan - As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.
15. Brad Keselowski - This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.
Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:
Brian Vickers - I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.
Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.
Jamie McMurray - Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 - Tums Fast Relief 500
October 26, 2011
With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.
During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*
1. Kyle Busch - Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.
2. Jimmie Johnson - If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.
3. Kevin Harvick - What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.
4. Jeff Gordon - Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.
5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…
6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).
7. Brad Keselowski - Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.
8. Clint Bowyer - NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.
9. Ryan Newman - Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.
10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.
11. Jamie McMurray - This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.
12. Matt Kenseth - Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).
13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.
14. Juan Montoya - If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.
15. Jeff Burton - With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.
Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
Greg Biffle - Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.
Kurt Busch - It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.
Kasey Kahne - I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon 2 - Sylvania 300
September 21, 2011
On Sunday afternoon–for the second and final time this season–the Sprint Cup Series will visit New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Sylvania 300, the second race in the 2011 Chase. After last week’s wild ending in Chicago, the points standings may get shaken up once again on Sunday at “The Magic Mile,” as you never know what’s going to happen on the small race tracks, where racing is tight all around. A fuel mileage race could happen once again as well, as we saw last fall when NASCAR’s most recent winner ran out of fuel on the last lap of this event in 2010.
During The Last Race At Loudon…Ryan Newman started on the pole, led 125 of the 301 laps, and went to victory lane with teammate Tony Stewart following him to the stripe. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top 5. Newman is the only driver in the series to post top 10 finishes in both races at New Hampshire in 2009 as well as the first race here this season.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Sylvania 300:
*Chase participants are marked in red*
1. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother had the best car last week but came home 6th, and this week the Cup series is visiting one of his better tracks, and the site of three of Kurt’s twenty-three career wins. Over the last five races at Loudon, no driver has a better average driver rating or a better average finish than Kurt Busch. Since his win here in June of 2008, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 13th and hasn’t had a driver rating under 91.7. In the flat track races this season, Busch has started in the top 5 in all five of them and has just one finish outside of the top 10.
2. Jeff Gordon - No one has really been as dominant on the flat tracks this season as Jeff Gordon. He won at Phoenix in February, won at Pocono in June, and finished 2nd at Indianapolis in July. At the series’ first stop at Loudon this season, Gordon finished 11th after starting 7th, and at the last flat track race (Pocono in August), he finished 6th despite starting deep in the pack (31st). At “The Magic Mile,” Jeff owns an average finish of 11th and three victories. In thirty-three starts he has just six finishes outside of the top 20, and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since 2005. Expect this #24 team to rebound after that weak showing in Chicago on Monday.
3. Jimmie Johnson - In the last 19 flat track races, “Five Time” owns fifteen top 10 finishes and three wins. Of those fifteen top 10s, twelve were also top 5s. At New Hampshire, Johnson has visited victory lane three times in nineteen career starts and owns an average finish of 9.6. Recently, Jimmie has posted three top 5s in the last four races at Loudon and has just one finish outside of the top 10 here since 2006. He has the third-best average driver rating of the past five races here and has finished in the top 5 in all but one of the flat track races during this 2011 season.
4. Ryan Newman - With The Rocketman’s 8th-place finish at Chicagoland, he now has five top 10 finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races and a worst finish of 20th. I personally do not think that he has a chance of winning this year’s chase, but with a win at Loudon on Sunday, Newman could turn me–and probably some others–into a believer. He is the most recent winner at this race track and you have to consider Ryan one of the best flat track racers in the series: in the five events on them this season, he has a win, three top 5s, and a worst finish of 12th. At New Hampshire specifically, Newman owns three visits to victory lane and thirteen top 10s in nineteen starts. He hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the last four races here and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.
5. Tony Stewart - After last week’s surprising (to me anyway) victory in Chicago, look for “Smoke” to have another good result in New Hampshire this weekend. Stewart has made twenty-five career starts at “The Magic Mile” and has found himself in victory lane twice. His average finish here is 12th and Tony has the second-best average driver rating at this track over the last five races. He’s finished 2nd in two of the last three races at Loudon and in the other race–where he finished 24th–Stewart was leading on the last lap but ran out of fuel. He has started in the top 5 in four of the last five races at New Hampshire and “Smoke” has finished 11th or better in four of the five flat track races this season. If he wants to make a serious run at the championship this season, Tony Stewart will need a good run this weekend, and I think it will happen.
6. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had engine woes here in July, but before that Kyle Busch ran off four consecutive top 11 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This is nowhere near his best track on the circuit (his average finish is 16.3 at Loudon) but Busch won here in 2006 and has been great on the flat tracks this season–excluding the first visit to this track–with top 3 finishes at Pocono twice as well as Phoenix in February. This team has stumbled recently (one top 10 in the last four Sprint Cup races) so make sure the #18 Toyota looks good in practice before committing to Kyle Busch on Sunday.
7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has had his fair share of struggles at New Hampshire but his average finish of 14.2 here isn’t too shabby (and actually ranks him 9th of all active drivers). He won from the pole here in 2006 and before his stumble here in July, Harvick had back-to-back top 5 finishes at this race track. As usual, don’t expect a good qualifying effort from the 29 team (just one start better than 18th in the last five races here) but a good finish should be expected. This year at the flat tracks, Harvick has recorded top 5s at Phoenix and Pocono and an 11th at Indianapolis.
8. Carl Edwards - He has just two top 10s in fourteen career starts at Loudon, but if Cousin Carl is going to make a legitimate run at the championship–which I think he will do–he will have to turn his luck around at this race track. He’s not terrible here, as shown with his 14.4 average finish, but he will need a run on Sunday similar to his efforts here in 2008 and 2006, where Carl finished in the top 5. In his career here, Edwards has just one finish outside of the top 20, so he’s very consistent, but he just needs to run a little better to get a third top 10 at “The Magic Mile.” I think that will happen on Sunday, as the #99 Ford has been pretty fast at the flat tracks this season.
9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is a very consistent driver (just one finish worse than 16th since early mid-July) but he hasn’t really put up top 10s–instead, Earnhardt usually finishes in the mid-teens. He lucked into a top 5 at Chicago on Monday, but I think the fan favorite will legitimately have a top 10 run this weekend. In the last six Loudon races, Junior has three top 10 finishes and just one finish outside of the top 15. What’s better yet is how good this team has been on the flat tracks in 2011: two top 10s at Pocono, a 10th at Phoenix, and a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. The last time the series visited Loudon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came home in 15th after starting 27th.
10. Denny Hamlin - I know Denny’s history at this track is very impressive–which I will get to in a little bit–but let’s be honest: this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and despite having solid top 10 runs before last week’s disaster in Chicago, they probably should have finished better in those races. Now to Hamlin’s record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In eleven career starts at this track, Denny has a series-best average finish of 7.2 and one win. He has never finished worse than 15th here and Hamlin has completed every single lap ran in the events he has participated at “The Magic Mile.” If he looks great in practice, I’ll rank him a little higher, but as of now Hamlin is just a top 10 driver in my mind. He has just one top 10 finish in the five flat track races this season.
11. Brad Keselowski - He got another top 5 finish at Chicagoland on Monday, but let’s face it: BK was a top 15 car at best and the fuel mileage factor played right into his hand. Going into the race this weekend, I’m ranking Keselowski conservatively at 11th, but I think he has the potential to score a top 10 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Brad’s first ever start here in 2009 left him with a 6th-place showing, and in the last two races here–despite ending in disappointing finishes (18th and 35th)–he has started in the top 5 both times. He’s not great at the flat tracks by any means but Keselowski won at Pocono in August and finished 9th at Indianapolis after starting 5th. If he looks good in practice, expect a solid showing from Brad on Sunday.
12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer was another beneficiary of the fuel situation in Chicago, as he got a top 10 finish out of it. Clint’s record at New Hampshire isn’t stellar (16.2 average finish in eleven starts) but he does have two victories here and is the defending winner of this race, although that was due to his Tony Stewart’s fuel woes on the last lap. Bowyer hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2008 and owns three top 10s in that span of five races. If he gets a little luck on Sunday, Clint could get a top 10 finish, but I think he will end up right where he has at the flat tracks all season long: in the teens.
13. Mark Martin - Look what we have here: for the first time in the 2011 season, Mark Martin has back-to-back top 10 finishes and the series is coming into one of his best tracks on the circuit. In twenty-nine career starts at Loudon, Mark owns fourteen top 10s and he visited victory lane here in 2009. Of all those starts, Martin only has five finishes outside of the top 20. However, three of those five have came in the last three events here. I don’t think he’ll be that bad this weekend, though. In the five flat track races this season, Martin has three finishes of 13th or better and a worst finish of 22nd. With a little luck, Martin could record his third top 10 in a row on Sunday,
14. Martin Truex, Jr. - It’s a pretty risky pick but if nothing goes wrong for this #56 team, a top 15 should be a lock for Martin Truex, Jr. on Sunday. He finished 8th here in July and in the four races in 2007 and 2008, Martin finished in the top 10 in all of them. This team struggled at Indianapolis with their 24th-place finish, but in the other flat track races in 2011, Truex has been a top 15 car every time. I expect that to happen once again in New Hampshire on Sunday,
15. Greg Biffle - Another risky pick this weekend will be The Biff. It’s almost getting ridiculous how much bad luck this team has run into this season despite having very good race cars. At New Hampshire, Biffle has finished 18th or better in seven of the last eight races and he won here in 2008. The last three events at Loudon have ended with Greg in 16th, 17th, and 18th, and in the flat track races in 2011, this team has come away with four top 20s in five races. I expect the #16 Ford to end up in the mid-teens when it’s all said and done on Sunday.
Those To Avoid Entering The Sylvania 300:
Matt Kenseth - The last-lap penalty in Chicago on Monday is really the last thing that Matt Kenseth needed because after the race in New Hampshire this weekend, his championship chances may be all but dead. In fact, Ryan Rantz has already stuck a fork in him (click here to read). Kenseth hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at Loudon since 2007, and hasn’t even really been close since then either–his best driver rating in the last seven races here has been 82.4. Matt finished 20th here in July.
Kasey Kahne - I’ve completely written off both Red Bull Racing drivers for the remainder of the season. Talk to me about Kahne next season when he’s driving for Hendrick. Kasey finished 6th here in July but his overall record at Loudon isn’t very stellar: only one top 5 in fifteen career starts and an average finish of 18th.
Brian Vickers - See what I said above about the Red Bull drivers. The last four races at New Hampshire have ended with Vickers finishing 34th, 11th, 35th, and 35th. He has one top 10 in twelve career starts at “The Magic Mile” and an average finish of 23rd. I’ll pass.
Bobby Labonte - He finished 7th here in July but don’t expect anything close to that this weekend out of Bobby Labonte. His driver rating during that race was just 24th-best, and that’s the finish, and that’s also his average finish at “The Magic Mile” over the last five races here. Expect a mid-20s finish out of Labonte this weekend–as usual.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Indianapolis (Brickyard 400)
July 28, 2011
Now that the NASCAR season is officially past halfway, it’s time to separate the men from the boys in fantasy racing. There will be no more off-weeks for the Sprint Cup Series until the season is over at Homestead, which will make many people–myself included–very happy. There are two practices scheduled to be held on Friday, and I would assume that most cars will work on their race setup for both of those sessions because there is another practice on Saturday morning before qualifying. If a driver struggles in practice, I would stay away from him this week.
During The Last Race At Indianapolis…Jamie McMurray grabbed his second huge victory of the season by taking the checkered flag at the 2010 Brickyard ahead of Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, and Tony Stewart. Even though Juan Montoya won the pole and led 86 laps, you probably remember that he was in a late-race incident with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Montoya also had a great race going for him in the 2009 Brickyard but ended up a disappointing 11th.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Brickyard 400:
1. Jimmie Johnson - If the race at New Hampshire showed me anything, it was that this 48 team can overcome multiple mistakes during a race and still come out with a solid finish. I still think this team is due for a win here soon, and with three victories under his belt at Indianapolis, look for Jimmie Johnson to once again contend this weekend. His average finish of 18.3 in nine starts at this track may turn some fantasy racers away, but “Five Time” has finished in the top five in every flat track race this year, and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Just imagine how much less JJ will have to work if there aren’t any mistakes made.
2. Jeff Gordon - If Gordon wouldn’t have ran out of fuel in New Hampshire (I’m still baffled as to how that happened) he would be 3-for-3 for top 5s at flat tracks, and I have said all season long that this team is completely different when the series comes to these tracks. The four-time Brickyard champ has finished outside of the top 10 just four times in seventeen career starts here, and Gordon has three top 10s in his last four starts at Indy. The #24 Chevrolet ended up in victory lane at Pocono as well as Phoenix, which are decently similar (in my mind) to Indianapolis.
3. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” finally got the finish in New Hampshire, and I think he will continue his strong running as of late this weekend in Indianapolis. Statistically, this is Stewart’s second-best track: he just one finish outside of the top 20 in twelve starts as well as two wins. In the last seven Brickyard races, Tony has six top 10s, and all but one of those were top 5s. The #14 Chevrolet finished 21st at Pocono, but the other two flat track races (New Hampshire and Phoenix) have given this team finishes of 2nd and 7th.
4. Kevin Harvick - Believe it or not, this is Harvick’s second-best track on the circuit. In ten races here, “Happy” has posted seven top 10s–including one win from the pole back in 2003–which accounts for his average finish of 9.9. With only two finishes outside of the top eleven for Harvick, I don’t see this team struggling this weekend, and the fact that the #29 ended up 5th in Pocono has to be re-assuring for fantasy owners.
5. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has made six starts at Indianapolis and has come away with three top 10s and a worst finish of just 18th. He has scored all three top 10s in “even year starts” (2006, 2008, 2010), though, and has posted finishes of 12th, 18th, and 15th in the “odd year starts” (2005, 2007, 2009). Will this little streak continue? I don’t think so because the #99 Ford has been great all season, and has even been good on the flat tracks but Edwards hasn’t earned the finishes. Don’t expect to see Carl near the front at the beginning of the race, though, as his average start at Indy is a measly 27.3.
6. Kyle Busch - How often does “Rowdy” Busch have two bad races in a row? Not often, and after his 36th-place finish at New Hampshire, I expect Kyle to turn around this weekend in Indianapolis in a big way. His first three starts at this track gave him three top 10s, and after a couple stumbles (15th in 2008 and 38th in 2009), Busch rebounded last season with a solid 8th-place finish at the Brickyard after starting 23rd. The #18 ended up 2nd and 3rd at Phoenix and Pocono, respectively, which are the two other flat tracks other than New Hampshire.
7. Juan Montoya - Over the past two years at Indianapolis, JPM has the best average driver rating (125.6) and has led the most laps (202) than anyone in the series, yet he has the 22nd-best average finish (21.5). Will this be the year Montoya puts everything together and breaks into victory lane? It’s certainly possible, but with the recent crew chief swap, I don’t see it happening. He has the skills to race this track better than most (remember Montoya finished 2nd here in his rookie year) but he’s a very risky pick, as you should know by now. Juan has started on the front row in three of his four Brickyard starts, though, so you should be able to pick up some qualifying points in Yahoo! this week. The #42 ended up 7th at Pocono in June.
8. Kasey Kahne - One driver you don’t think of right away when the series comes to Indianapolis is Kasey Kahne, but he should be in the back of your mind this weekend. Kahne has posted top 12 finishes in all three flat track races this season and has four top 10s in seven starts at Indianapolis. If you take away his 36th and 40th-place efforts in 2006 and 2007 (both listed as accidents) Kasey has never finished outside of the top 13 at this track. His teammate, Brian Vickers, got a top five finish here in 2009.
9. Matt Kenseth - Matt finished 8th at Pocono in June and I think he has the potential to finish right around there in Indianapolis on Sunday. His average career finish here is right around 15th, but Matt has two top 10s in the last four Brickyards and a 12th-place effort during that span as well. He struggled in New Hampshire–as many people predicted the Roush Fords would–but Kenseth still has five top 10s in the last seven Sprint Cup races, and barring any accident or engine failure, Matt should make that six of the last eight once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.
10. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” continued his hot streak in New Hampshire with a 4th-place effort, and I expect it continue this weekend in Indianapolis. Logano has made just two starts at this 2.5-mile track, but he owns 9th and 12th-place finishes after starting 34th and 18th in those races, respectively. Joey finished 11th at Pocono in June and that’s right about where he should end up in Indiana on Sunday.
11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has to get out of this slump he is in (two top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup races) soon…right? This has been a good track for Clint, but if he doesn’t impress people in practice, go ahead and take him off of your roster before the drop of the green flag. He’s finished 4th here twice (in 2006 and 2010), but Bowyer’s three other starts at Indy have ended in finishes of 13th, 19th, and 18th. Which #33 Chevrolet will show up this weekend? I guess we’ll find out soon enough, but I wouldn’t bank on a top 10, and even this 11th-place ranking may be too high.
12. Ryan Newman - If you have the 2011 Athlon Sports magazine Racing Preview, you probably noticed that they list “The Rocketman” on the “Runs on Seven Cylinders” list for Indianapolis. While Newman hasn’t been spectacular at this track, he has been consistent as of late, and with his win in New Hampshire, Ryan should have boosted confidence coming into his home track. He has just one top 10 in ten starts at this track, but Newman has finished 13th or 14th in three of his past five starts here. The #39 has ended up in the top 10 in every flat track race this season, including a 9th-place effort at Pocono in June.
13. Kurt Busch - Indianapolis isn’t Kurt’s best track, but you can’t overlook the fact that the “Double Deuce” hasn’t finished worse than 14th since May 7th in Darlington, and has six top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup Series races. Busch has made ten starts at this 2.5-mile racetrack and has an average finish of 18.1 with four top 10s, including one last season. This ranking may be a little too low for the elder Busch brother, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying predictions over at ifantasyrace.com on Saturday afternoon.
14. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin poses the biggest question mark in the field for me. He is an awesome flat track driver, but Denny’s finishes at Indianapolis are nothing short of disappointing. He posted a 3rd-place finish here in 2008, and that combined with his 10th-place effort in 2006 are his only finishes better than 15th in five career starts here. Here’s something to think about: Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than 15th in “even year starts” at this track (2006, 2008, 2010), but his finishes in the “odd year starts” (2007, 2009) have been 22nd and 34th. If this continues, expect a down week from the #11 Toyota this weekend.
15. Greg Biffle - He may be ranked high in other fantasy NASCAR writer’s minds, but you won’t find Biffle on any of my rosters this weekend unless he really blows me away in practice. Greg has the best average finish at Indianapolis over the past two years of anyone and he is on a streak of four straight top 15s here (three straight top 10s). However, The Biff has a new crew chief this weekend, which makes me leery, and this team has really struggled on the flat tracks this season. The #16 hasn’t finished in the top ten since June 5, and I don’t expect that to change after Sunday.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Brickyard 400:
16. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has six straight top 11 finishes at Indianapolis, but this team has barely even sniffed the top 11 since late May. Martin scored a 9th-place finish at Michigan, but other than that his best finish since Charlotte on May 29th has been 19th. Mark is a good driver at this track, but you have to question his equipment this season as well as the entire #5 team. This veteran will need a whole bunch of luck to come close to the top ten this week.
17. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex finally finished a race and got the finish he deserved in New Hampshire (thankfully because I put him on my roster), and I think that will give Martin a little momentum coming into Indianapolis. His best finish here came in 2007 when he came home 12th, and if you take out Truex’s 42nd-place finish in his first start here, his average finish here jumps to 19.6 (from 23.3). The #56 wound up 10th at Pocono and ended up 14th earlier this season in Phoenix.
18. A.J. Allmendinger - Here’s another driver with a new crew chief, which makes you wonder whether or not they will be meshing well enough to have a strong running in one of NASCAR’s most prestigious races. I’ve liked The Dinger on flat tracks all season, and he brought the #43 home in 9th at Pocono in June. In three starts at Indy, A.J. has an average finish of 15.3 and captured a top 10 here during his rookie year. Watch for Allmendinger to jump up my board if he catches my eye in practice.
19. Jeff Burton - I really though Burton would finally get a top 10 in New Hampshire–which is why he was on most of my rosters–but of course he ended up being his normal self and disappointing fantasy owners. However, I think this team hit on something (they were really fast at the beginning of that race) and will transfer over to a decent run at Indy. However, I’m being conservative and placing Burton in 19th right now. He does have three top 10s in the last four Brickyard races, though.
20. Jamie McMurray - As long as his engine don’t blow, I think Jamie Mac should be pretty trustworthy for a solid top 20 finish on Sunday. Too bad you don’t win any fantasy leagues by picking 20th-place drivers. As you probably remember, McMurray won this race last season, and he posted a 6th-place effort in 2008, but Jamie’s other finishes since 2004 have been 17th, 26th, 33rd, and 21st.
Avoid These Drivers For The Brickyard 400:
David Reutimann - If Reutty posts a fast lap in qualifying, I may bump him up in my rankings, but even then it would be risky to put the #00 Toyota on your roster this weekend. He finished 8th after starting 5th here in 2009, but in Reutimann’s three other starts at this 2.5-mile track, his best finish is 28th and his best start has been 29th. David started 9th and finished 13th at Pocono.
Brian Vickers - Vickers finished 5th in his last start at Indianapolis, but that was back in 2009 and I think missing a year will set Brian back a bit. His best effort on the flat tracks thus far in the 2011 season has been 22nd (back in Pocono) and he’s simply too unreliable to be picked this weekend. As I said before, though, his Red Bull Racing teammate would be an excellent pick for the Brickyard.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior’s top 15 in New Hampshire surprised me, but the fact of the matter is that the sport’s most popular driver hasn’t posted a top ten since Pocono back in June. That in itself could translate to a good run this weekend, but I don’t see that happening: Earnhardt has eleven starts at Indy and has posted just two top 10s, compared to five finishes outside of the top 20.
Greg Biffle - The Biff has a three-race streak of top 10s at Indianapolis, and has finished 4th and 3rd in the last two races here, but I think he and his new crew chief are going to struggle this weekend. In the last three flat track races, Biffle’s best finish has been 18th, and he hasn’t had a top ten since early June. If he impresses me during practice and qualifies well, I may change my mind, but right now you won’t find the #16 on any of my rosters.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon - Lenox Industrial Tools 301
July 13, 2011
This week, the Sprint Cup Series visits New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Parking and traffic shouldn’t dominate the headlines this weekend, as it did before, during, and after the Kentucky race a few days ago (click here to read my story of that race, my first NASCAR experience). Now that my schedule is finally clear for an entire weekend, make sure you check out my Practice Breakdown and Post-Happy Hour Predictions, which can be found at www.ifantasyrace.com. Remember: the Sprint Cup Series takes the weekend after this race off before returning at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the last weekend of July.
During The Last Race At Loudon…Clint Bowyer led a race-high 177 laps en route to his first victory of the 2010 season. He would have nearly all of those points taken away though as NASCAR found the rear of his car to not not be up to specs after the race. Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kevin Harvick all recorded top fives that day. Tony Stewart, as you may remember, was leading with one lap to go but ran out of fuel and finished a disappointing 23rd. “Smoke” led 100 laps that day. In the spring race at New Hampshire, Jimmie Johnson started 10th and led only nine laps but took the checkered flag once it was all said and done. Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick followed him to the line. Harvick, along with Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., posted top ten finishes in both Loudon races last season.
My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Practice, practice, practice. I preached that average speedswould be a huge determinant in the Loudon race last fall, and you can click here to see if I was right or not. There is one practice session scheduled for Friday afternoon, and those speeds will set the qualifying lineup, which starts later that afternoon. I wouldn’t pay much attention to the first practice session speeds. However, there are two practices set to be ran on Saturday morning/afternoon, and I would watch them very closely to figure out who to pick on Sunday. I will also be referring to Pocono and Phoenix a lot in this preview, as those are the other two flat tracks that have been raced on this season. Be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown on ifantasyrace.com, and my Fantasy Predictions will return this week as well.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
1. Jimmie Johnson - One of the most surprising things to me thus far in the 2011 season is that the #48 team has only one win and that it came at Talladega of all places. I think that this will change in Loudon on Sunday. Johnson has the best driver rating over the past two years at this track and if a wheel wouldn’t have came loose from his Chevy in last year’s fall race, he would probably be coming into this race with an eight-race streak of top 10s at “The Magic Mile”. “Five Time” has visited victory lane here three times and has finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his eighteen career starts at this flat track.
2. Kurt Busch - I don’t know what Penske hit on, but week in and week out both of their cars are fast–and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. Only Johnson has a better driver rating over the last two years at Loudon than the elder Busch brother, and the “Double Deuce” came home 2nd and 8th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively. Kurt has visited victory lane three times at New Hampshire, and you have to believe that he will grab a victory here soon. Will it be this week? I guess we’ll find out. Before Kurt’s 13th-place effort in the last race here, he had a streak of five finishes in the top 6 at this track.
3. Kyle Busch - After last week’s dominating performance at Kentucky Speedway, it’s official: no one is as hot as “Rowdy” Busch is right now–not even his brother. Over the last five Sprint Cup races, Kyle has accumulated 199 total points, five more than Kurt. In the last ten, the younger Busch brother has amassed 367 points. Matt Kenseth is a distant second in that category with 350 points collected. At Loudon, Kyle Busch has one win and eight top 11 finishes in twelve starts. At Pocono, Busch finished 3rd after starting 34th, and at Phoenix he 23 laps before finishing runner-up to Jeff Gordon. This season it’s been boom or bust for Busch, so expect either a top five or a mid-teens finish out of the #18 on Sunday. I’d bet on the former, though.
4. Tony Stewart - Fantasy owners are getting a surprise this summer: “Smoke” hasn’t been a great pick week in and week out. He has had great race cars, though, and eventually this team will put everything together and get the finish they deserve. Over the last four races at this track, Stewart has the third-best average driver rating in the series and two top five finishes, which both came in the summer race. Tony has led at least one lap in the last seven races at New Hampshire, and remember: he was leading the last race here with one lap to go and ran out of fuel (giving him a 24th-place finish). When you take that out of the equation, “Smoke” hasn’t finished worse than 14th at this track since early 2007.
5. Jeff Gordon - This year I haven’t really liked picking Jeff Gordon, but he’s 2-for-2 on flat tracks this year and I think he could contend for the win on Sunday as well. Jeff finished 4th and 6th at New Hampshire last season and three wins and five runner-up finishes in his 32 starts here. In the last eleven races at this track, Gordon hasn’t finished outside of the top 15, which is quite an impressive feat when you think about it. In the last two years, only three drivers have a better average driver rating than Gordon at this track.
6. Denny Hamlin - Statistically, this is Denny’s fourth-best track on the circuit, as his average finish here is 7.6 over ten career starts. That average finish is also the best of anyone in the series. He visited victory lane at New Hampshire in 2007, and in two of the last three races here the #11 has finished runner-up. The one thing that really stands out to me when looking at Hamlin’s stats at this track is that he has completed 100% of the laps ran, which is the reason he has never finished outside of the top 15. I don’t expect that to change this weekend.
7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” won from the pole here in 2006 and has eleven top 10s in twenty career starts at this track. He crossed the stripe in 5th during both Loudon races last season and has finished in the top 15 in four of the last six Sprint Cup Series visits to the track. Harvick notched top five finishes at both Phoenix and Pocono earlier this year, and I don’t think it would surprise many to see the #29 Chevrolet up around there on Sunday, either.
8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer isn’t consistently great at New Hampshire, but the most recent race winner here does have two career victories on this track and is on a three-race streak of top 10s here. The #33 got caught up in that wreck at Phoenix and wasn’t very competitive at Pocono, so he may drop in my rankings once Happy Hour is over, but going into the race I look at Bowyer as a pretty solid pick. He has the fifth-highest average driver rating at Loudon over the last four races.
9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Even though Junior didn’t have a great 2010 season, he did find success at Loudon, notched 8th and 4th-place finishes. He has never visited victory lane at this track, but Dale does have six top 5 finishes in his twenty-three starts at “The Magic Mile”. He finished 10th at Phoenix and came home 6th at Pocono, so you have to believe this team is going to get out of their little dry spell (best finish of 19th in the past four Sprint Cup Series races).
10. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is a very good flat track racer, and he has the fourth-best average finish since 2009 on those type of tracks of anyone in the series. At Loudon, Newman has visited victory lane twice and notched twelve top 10s in eighteen career starts. He is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track and I expect him to make that a four-race streak once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. At Pocono, Newman finished 9th, and at Phoenix he wound up 5th.
11. Carl Edwards - This will be the week that the #99 team has the chance to show that they are championship material. Of the 23 tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit, New Hampshire ranks 16th (in terms of average finish) for Carl Edwards. He has made thirteen starts on this one-mile track but has come away with just two top 10s, which were 2nd and 3rd-place efforts in 2006 and 2008, respectively. However, what is impressive to me is that Cousin Carl has just one finish outside of the top 20 in his career, and that was a 25th-place result in this race last season.
12. Brad Keselowski - As you probably know, I don’t like going against anyone on a hot streak, and over the last ten Sprint Cup races, only nine other drivers have scored more points than Brad Keselowski. He’s not blowing anyone out of the water–although I thought for a while that he was going to win in Kentucky–but he has three straight top 15s coming into the race this weekend. At New Hampshire, BK has an average career finish of 16.7, but he grabbed a 6th-place finish in his first start at “The Magic Mile” and won the pole here last September. At Phoenix, Brad brought the “Blue Deuce” home in 15th.
13. David Reutimann - With an average career finish of 17th, this is Reutimann’s third-best track on the series, and I think his 2nd-place run last weekend will give him momentum for a solid run at Loudon on Sunday. He started and brought the #00 Toyota home in 7th in the most recent race at this track and is on a five-race streak of top 15s here. As I’m sure you have figured out by now, Reutty is very hit-or-miss, so if he doesn’t look very good in practice, expect him to fall in my rankings.
14. A.J. Allmendinger - Right here is my sleeper pick for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Dinger was running in the top five in the last race here before running out of fuel and finishing 12th, and he also brought the #43 Ford home in 9th-place at Phoenix earlier this year. In this race one year ago, A.J. finished 10th. If he starts in the top fifteen and looks decent in practice, you’ll probably find him on at least one of my rosters Sunday.
15. Juan Montoya - The main concern with Montoya this week is whether he is going to get the finish he deserves. He was running great last week in Kentucky but had a pit road speeding penalty and had to settle for a finish outside of the top ten. In the last three Loudon races, JPM has two poles and a 5th-place start, but only one top ten (a 3rd in 2009) to show for it. In those three races he has also led a combined 141 laps. Juan’s average finish here is 19.5 but that should improve after Sunday’s race.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
16. Joey Logano - If you are going to buy into “Sliced Bread” at New Hampshire, take your chances in the summer race. He won the race here in 2009–albeit being rain-shortened–and followed that up with a 9th-place in the summer race last season. In the fall races, though, Logano’s best finish in three starts has been 21st. Joey finished 11th at Pocono and started 6th at Phoenix before he had engine problems. If the #20 Toyota is fast in practice, expect Logano to move up my rankings when I make my post-Happy Hour predictions on Saturday.
17. Jeff Burton - Even this ranking may be a little to high for Burton, but I’m going to go with it. His 19th-place effort in Kentucky last weekend has been the #31 Chevrolet’s best finish since mid-May, but the team has been consistent in that span, with all finishes coming between 19th and 25th. Burton’s last three starts at Loudon have given him finishes of 16th, 12th, and 15th, and he finished 20th at Pocono last June. It’s hard to believe that this team still do not have a top 10 to their credit this season, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend.
18. Matt Kenseth - Please scroll down to the “Avoid” section of my post to read my thoughts on Matt Kenseth this weekend…
19. Kasey Kahne - Kahne started 2nd and led 110 laps in this race last season before an engine issue delegated him to a 36th-place finish. He followed that up with a 14th-place effort in the fall race at Loudon. Kasey’s best finish here is 4th, but that came in 2004, and his best finish in the last nine races at this track has been 10th. The fact that he has completed less than 90% of the laps ran here is enough for me to avoid Kahne this weekend. He finished 12th and 6th at Pocono and Phoenix, though, so I could be wrong.
20. Mark Martin - Martin won here in 2009, but I expect him to be his usual self on Sunday. He finished 21st and 29th in the two Loudon races last season and if you still think the #5 time has a chance to be competitive this season, I’m guessing you’re not doing very well in fantasy. In ten of Martin’s first twelve starts at “The Magic Mile” he finished in the top 10, but that was in the 90’s and this is 2011.
Avoid These Drivers For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:
Matt Kenseth - I may have him ranked this week, but you won’t find him on any of my rosters. Matt hasn’t finished better than 17th at Loudon since 2007, but he used to find success at this track so I could end up being completely wrong on the #17 this weekend. From 2003 to 2007, Kenseth posted ten top 10s in eleven races at “The Magic Mile” and the lone finish outside of that was a 14th. He ended up 8th and 12th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, earlier this year.
Jamie McMurray - I wouldn’t touch Jamie Mac for the rest of the season. This has done a complete 180 from their very successful season in 2010. Jamie finished 3rd here last year, but that was then and this is now. Before that run, you have to go back to 2004 to find McMurray’s last top ten at New Hampshire. His average career finish at this track is 22.2.
Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex found some success at “The Magic Mile” from 2007 to 2008, where he posted four straight top 10s, but since that little run he had (he was running for DEI at the time), Martin has yet to finish better than 19th here. He finished 10th and 14th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, but I don’t see Martin coming anywhere close to that this weekend.
David Ragan - His momentum may give him a little luck this weekend, but I would still avoid David Ragan at New Hampshire. His best finish came in his first start at this track–he ended up 15th after started 32nd–and David has only completed 94.6% of the laps in the races he has started here. If you’re in an allocation league, I wouldn’t even think about starting Ragan this week. If not, and you feel like taking a major risk, make sure he starts up front and looks stout in practice.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Kentucky - Quaker State 400
July 6, 2011
For the first time ever, the Sprint Cup Series will visit Sparta, Kentucky and the Kentucky Speedway on Saturday night for the inaugural Quaker State 400. The Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series have raced on this track every year for a while, and this triple-header weekend will be capped off by Saturday night’s–reportedly almost entirely sold out–Cup Series race. This will be the first NASCAR race that I will be in attendance, and because of that I will not be making my post-qualifying predictions on ifantasyrace. However, I will still post my Practice Breakdown over there, so make sure you check that out.
About Kentucky Speedway…This track, which opened in 2000, is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 14-degree banking in the turns, 8-degree banking in the tri-oval, and 4-degree banking on the backstretch. In my opinion, it is most closely related to Kansas Speedway, where the banking for turns, the tri-oval, and the backstretch are 15-degrees, 10.4-degrees, and 5-degrees, respectively. Chicagoland Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway are the only other two 1.5-mile tri-oval tracks on the circuit after Kentucky and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway matches the Kentucky track with 14-degree banking in the turns, but California is a 2-mile D-shaped oval.
My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…First and foremost: don’t panic this week. We may not have any history to go off of at this racetrack, but there are similar tracks to Kentucky out there, and I expect the familiar faces to be up front on Saturday night. Also, NASCAR is giving us four practice sessions (two on Thursday and two on Friday) to study, which means we will have a bunch of data to go off of when finalizing our rosters. As I said before, be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown on ifantasyrace.com.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Quaker State 400:
1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl is one driver that you expect to be up front in almost every cookie cutter race, and this weekend should be no exception. He posted top five finishes at both Kansas and Michigan and the #99 ended up in victory lane at Las Vegas after leading 69 laps. Edwards has also been in the top ten in driver average for every intermediate race this year. Don’t forget: every week Carl has finished outside of the top ten, he went on to finish in the top five in the next race. Edwards finished 2nd in the Nationwide Kentucky race last season.
2. Kyle Busch - When “Rowdy” hasn’t ran into trouble this season–whether it be engine difficulties or a wreck–on the intermediate tracks, he has been one of the strongest in the field. At Kansas, Kyle finished 12th, but he had the 5th-best driver rating for the race, and at Las Vegas he led over 75% of the laps ran, giving him a driver rating of over 143, but finished a disappointing (to him) 3rd. Busch didn’t run the Nationwide Kentucky race last season, but he finished 2nd in the 2009 race here.
3. Kurt Busch - Over the past five races, only one driver has scored more points then the elder Busch brother, and I hate to go against anyone that is on a hot streak. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the “Double Deuce” ended up on the pole once again Friday night, and I think Kurt could grab his second win in three races on Saturday night. He had the best driver rating at Kansas and led 152 laps, and he has been in the top ten (in terms of driver rating) in all of the intermediate tracks this year except at Auto Club Speedway, which was when Penske was in their little slump. Busch also hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the past seven Sprint Cup races.
4. Matt Kenseth - Another hot driver is Matt Kenseth, and you can never count him out when the series stops at a cookie-cutter track. He had the best driver rating in the Michigan race (where he finished 2nd) and his 6th-place finish at Kansas came with the 7th-best driver rating during the race. Kenseth piloted the #17 Ford to a top five at California as well, and pretty much dominated the Texas race.
5. Tony Stewart - I’m still banking on “Smoke” to heat up here soon–as history has proved that he usually does–but I’m growing a little impatient. However, I still have faith in the #14 in the upcoming races, and I think Stewart will grab a much-needed top five in this inaugural event. At Kansas, Tony had the 3rd-best driver rating and finished 8th, and at Las Vegas he finished 2nd while having the 2nd-best driver rating. In the last two years, Stewart has the best average finish of anyone in the series on the intermediate tracks.
6. Kevin Harvick - Now that “Happy” has the points lead, I think he will go on a streak of races on top, but ultimately Carl Edwards will eventually take over once again. Harvick has the 8th-best average finish at intermediate tracks in the last two years, but his average driver rating is the lowest of everyone in that top ten–which backs up his nickname of “The Closer”. At Kansas he started 10th and ended up 11th, and at Michigan he ended up 14th. However, you can’t look past the move he made on “Five Time” at Auto Club Speedway, and you have to expect he will challenge for a solid top ten on Saturday, if not a top five. No other driver has accumulated more points than Harvick over the last ten Sprint Cup races.
7. Jimmie Johnson - If you got the Athlon Sports Racing 2011 preview magazine earlier this year, you probably read that Johnson was listed as a “Good Sleeper Pick” for this Kentucky race, stating “the 48 team usually adapts quicker than most.” I agree, but this team didn’t look as stout as usual on the intermediate tracks earlier this year (particularly Las Vegas). However, “Five Time” finished 7th at Kansas and almost won at Auto Club Speedway. Do I think he will challenge for the win on Saturday night? No, but you can’t go against Jimmie Johnson on the intermediates, as he has the best average driver rating on them over the past two years of anyone in the series.
8. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been pretty stout at the cookie-cutters this year–when his engine doesn’t blow. He won at Michigan and had the 6th-best driver rating at Kansas and went on to finish 3rd. At Las Vegas, he finished 7th after starting 17th, and before his engine blew at California, led 15 laps. I’m not worried about the Gibbs engines any more, though, so I’m expecting a good run out of all three Toyotas this weekend.
9. Jeff Gordon - You can’t go against the hottest driver on the circuit, and in the last five races, that has been Jeff Gordon, believe it or not. Don’t worry Kurt Busch fans, the elder Busch brother is a very close second. However, I’m still not sold that this team has the intermediate tracks figured out. Gordon finished 4th at Kansas, but at Michigan, California, and Texas, the #24 Chevrolet ended up 17th, 18th, and 23rd, respectively. I’m being conservative ranking Jeff 9th this week; if trends continue, he should finish better than that in the Quaker State 400.
10. Joey Logano - As I was writing my preview, I had Logano in the back of my head the entire time as a dark horse pick for the win Saturday night. Seriously, how could you go against the guy who has won the last three Nationwide races at this track? But then I remembered how much this team has struggled this season, and started to write him off as a bust this week, once again. But then I looked into the numbers: only five drivers have scored more points than “Sliced Bread” in the last five Sprint Cup races, and with Logano’s 3rd-place effort in Daytona, he now has two straight top 10s and three finishes of 11th or better in the last four races. Watch the #20 Toyota closely in practice, he may have just enough time to save his season.
11. Greg Biffle - As you probably know, The Biff is at his best when the series comes to the intermediate tracks, but consistency has been a problem for the #16 team this season. Greg notched top ten finishes at Kansas and Texas, but those are the only two. He had the 3rd-best driver rating at Michigan but wound up 15th, and Biffle’s driver rating of 105.6 at Las Vegas was 6th-best in race, but he ended up a disappointing 28th. He has the potential to get a top five finish Saturday night, but Greg’s changes of finishing between 11th and 15th is just as likely.
12. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” really started out this season strong on the intermediate tracks–posting 5th-place finishes at both Las Vegas and California–and he has finished outside of the top 15 in just one of his cookie-cutter starts this year. His driver ratings in those races don’t exactly stand out like other driver’s do, but it’s the finishes that count in fantasy racing.
13. Clint Bowyer - Clint had the 2nd-best driver rating at Texas and finished 2nd as well, and his other intermediate runs this year have been better-than-mediocre in my opinion. He ended up 7th at Auto Club Speedway with the 6th-best driver rating, but that was the only other gem in the bunch. With the driver rating of only 80.2 he ended up 8th at Michigan, and he finished 15th at Las Vegas while having the 21st-best driver rating.
14. David Ragan - Talk about momentum. Now that Ragan has his first win in the Sprint Cup Series under his belt, I think he will carry that into this weekend and have another good run. These intermediates are arguably his strongest (maybe second behind restrictor plate tracks) and he finished a solid 13th at Kansas. At Texas, David put his #6 Ford on the pole and went on to lead 11 laps before ending up 7th when it was all said and done.
15. Brad Keselowski - Along with his Penske teammate, Kurt Busch, BK has been on a little hot streak (for him, anyway) as well. He’s amassed more points in the last five races than drivers such as Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, and Carl Edwards, and he won the Kansas race, albeit being from fuel strategy. However, a win is a win, and Keselowski still had the 10th-best driver rating in that race. At Texas, Brad led 32 laps with the “Blue Deuce” but went on to finish (a probably disappointing) 18th. In the Nationwide Series at this track last season, BK finished runner-up to Joey Logano.
NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 Entry List
June 25, 2011
NASCAR Infineon Speedway Toyota/Save Mart 350 Entry List
NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Coca Cola 600
May 25, 2011
| Expert | Website | Pick to Win | Finish | Experts Avg | |
| Josh Lobdell | Carl Edwards | 16 | 12.33 | ||
| Jerry Lagger | One and Done Game Winner | Jimmie Johnson | 28 | 13.67 | |
| Dennis Michelsen | RaceTalkRadio.com | Carl Edwards | 16 | 13.67 | |
| Steve Wronkowicz | On Pit Row | Matt Kenseth | 14 | 12.33 | |
| Eric McClung | KFFL | Kyle Busch | 32 | 13.42 | |
| Eric McGuire | free agent | Carl Edwards | 16 | 15.17 | |
| Dan Beaver | Fantasy Racing Games | Carl Edwards | 16 | 11.75 | |
| Matt Mercer | On Pit Row | Matt Kenseth | 14 | 14.25 | |
| Adam Ansell | Roto Experts | Carl Edwards | 16 | 9.42 | |
| Chris Leone | On Pit Row | Joey Logano | 3 | 11.17 | |
| Bob Ellis | NASCAR Ranting and Raving | Jimmie Johnson | 28 | 12.58 | |
| CharlieTurner | On Pit Row | Jimmie Johnson | 28 | 10.58 | |
| Jordan McAbee | On Pit Row | Carl Edwards | 16 | 12.92 | |
| Jon Rodgers | Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 7 | 11.75 | |
| James Jones | On Pit Row | Kyle Busch | 32 | 10.17 | |
| Mike Wells | Racing4Glory.com | Kyle Busch | 32 | 11.25 | |
| Darren Fauth | FantasyRacingCheatSheet | Carl Edwards | 16 | 9.00 | |
| P J Walsh | FantasyNASCARPreview.com | Carl Edwards | 16 | 10.42 | |
| Charles Rantz | ifantasyrace.com | Carl Edwards | 16 | 11.25 |
NASCAR Fantasy Racing
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Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow
Steve Wronkowicz
I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Over ten years on the air and three on the net; see what can happen when I don't let the facts get in the way of my opinions.
