Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega 2 - Good Sam Club 500
October 19, 2011
After this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, I think we will be able to confidently eliminate about half of the Chase field’s hopes for winning the championship, and maybe even more. The races at these super-speedways are nearly impossible to predict, so as I did in my previous Daytona and Talladega previews, I will be switching up the format for this week’s article. Although I view them as borderline worthless, there are two practice sessions scheduled for Friday afternoon and the starting lineup will be set on Saturday afternoon. The Good Sam Club 500 is set to start around 2:15 eastern time on Sunday.
During The Last Race At Talladega…The five-time champ Jimmie Johnson got a push by 4th-place finisher (and team-mate) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to get his first victory of this 2011 season and second at Talladega. Clint Bowyer, who led the most laps that day (38), finished runner-up, with Jeff Gordon ending up 3rd. Kevin Harvick, who started 38th that day, rounded out the top 5.
My Views On The Chasers:
Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl is actually one of the more consistent drivers when it comes to the restrictor plate race tracks. In the last eleven races at either Talladega or Daytona, Edwards has the best average finish of anyone in the series (13.5) and only one DNF. However, until his 6th-place finish at ‘Dega in April, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find Carl’s last top 10 here. His career average finish here of 20.9 is nothing stellar, but I think the #99 Ford should be in the top 10 by the end of the race on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick is always a good pick when it comes to the big tracks and his career average finish of 14.3 at Talladega backs that up. What’s even more impressive to me is that he doesn’t have one single DNF here in twenty-one career starts. Kevin won the April race in last season and is on a streak of three-straight top 5s at Talladega. He also has six top 10s in the last seven restrictor plate races.
Matt Kenseth - You won’t find Kenseth on my rosters this weekend, I’ll tell you that, even though I usually like the most recent winners when it comes to fantasy racing. He has just five top 10s in twenty-three career starts at Talladega and hasn’t finished there since this race in 2006.
Kyle Busch - Despite having the third-best average driver rating in the past five races at Talladega, Kyle Busch is pretty risky pick on the big tracks. His average finish in thirteen races here is 24.2, but he has led at least one lap in nine of the last ten. If he starts in the top ten on Sunday, though, I’d think about giving Busch a shot: last season he started 6th in the April race last season and finished 9th, won the April race in 2008 after starting 5th, and finished 11th in the October race in 2006 after starting 6th.
Tony Stewart - “Smoke” used to be an awesome pick when the series stopped at a restrictor plate track, but now I’d just put him in the “kind of good” category. He finished 17th here in April, and in the two Daytona races this season he ended up 13th and 11th. In those three races, though, Stewart has led a combined total of one lap. Since his win here in the October race in 2008, Tony hasn’t finished better than 16th. I think there are much better picks than “Smoke” this weekend.
Brad Keselowski - If “Bad Brad” wants to make it known that he’s serious about this championship run, he better have a good run on Sunday–and it’s not impossible that that will happen. As you may or may not remember, Keselowski made his first start at ‘Dega in 2009 driving the #09 car for Phoenix Racing. He started 9th in that race, and despite only leading one lap in that race, he led the most important: the final one. Since then, Brad has made four starts at ‘Dega and has ended up with two top 10s and has led at least three laps in all races. He struggled in the first two restrictor plate races of the 2011 season, but Keselowski finished 15th in the second Daytona race.
Kurt Busch - I’m assuming BK’s dancing partner on Sunday will be the elder Busch brother, so if one has a good race you can reasonably expect the other to as well. Kurt won both the Shootout as well as his Duel race in Daytona earlier this year and is considered by many as the best restrictor plate driver to never win a race. Over the last eleven races on them, Busch has the best average driver rating (96.4). He has completed 96.5% of the laps ran in his twenty-one starts at Talladega, which is very impressive.
Jimmie Johnson - I usually don’t like JJ at all in the spring race at Talladega (I actually had him on my Avoid list for the first race here, which he ended up winning) but the fall race is completely different. Johnson has four-straight top 10s in the October race here, and if he wants to win a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie will need a great run on Sunday, which is very possible.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - We all know the story of Junior at the restrictor plate race tracks. He pushed his team-mate, Jimmie Johnson, to the win here in April, and if they work together again on Sunday, I’m expecting top 5s out of both once again. Earnhardt has the best average driver rating (102.1) over the last five races here and he has just two finishes worse than 13th in the last seven races at Talladega. Junior’s average driver rating of 90.2 over the last eleven restrictor plate races is fourth-best in the series.
Ryan Newman - This is another reason I don’t like Tony Stewart this weekend: his team-mate, “The Rocketman.” Over the past five races at Talladega, Newman has an average finish (24.4) that is worse than Robby Gordon (23.8)…seriously. Ryan’s 3rd-place effort here in 2009 is his only bright spot in the last six races, as he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in the other five. I can say with near certainty that Newman will be out of championship contention once the race is over on Sunday.
Jeff Gordon - In the last five restrictor plate races, Gordon has notched four top 10s and has led laps in all five. At Talladega specifically, Jeff has finished in the top 10 in the last two races, but those are his only finishes better than 19th since he won both races here in 2007. Over his entire career here (thirty-seven races), Gordon has visited victory lane six times and has an average finish of 16.1.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is hit-or-miss at Talladega, so keep that in mind if you pick him this weekend. In eleven career starts here, has has notched four top 10s, but those are also Denny’s only top 20s here, bringing his average finish down to 18.7. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Hamlin has finished 21st, 23rd, and 13th.
The Non-Chasers I’m Keeping My Eye On:
Clint Bowyer - Clint won this race last season after starting 2nd and with his 2nd-place finish here in April, he now has three-straight top 10s at Talladega. What’s impressive to me, though, is that in the last eight races here, Bowyer has finished worse than 12th just once. He has the fifth-best average driver rating (88.6) over the last five races here.
Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne has two 2nd-place finishes to his name in fifteen career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but those are his only top 10s as well. However, you can’t overlook the fact that he has had some super fast Toyotas for the past few weeks. He’ll probably work with his team-mate, Brian Vickers, on Sunday, who since joining Red Bull Racing in 2007 has three finishes of 13th or better at Talladega, but also four finishes of 29th or worse.
Greg Biffle - The Biff’s stats at restrictor plate tracks won’t blow you away, but he’s quite consistent. In the last eleven races on them, Biffle has finished outside of the top 20 just once, although he has just two top 10s. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished worse than 19th since 2008 and has notched three top 10s in that five-race span.
David Ragan - Well in case you didn’t believe it before, the second Daytona race this season proved that Ragan is a legitimate contender at the restrictor plate tracks. At Talladega, David has an average finish of 17th in nine career starts and has notched three top 10s. He has the ninth-best average driver rating in the last five races here.
Juan Montoya - If you’re looking for a high risk, high reward driver, Montoya is your guy. In the last three Talladega races, Juan has two top 5s to his name, and he finished 2nd here in 2008. His career average finish of 16.4 here is actually tenth-best in the series. Also, over the last eleven restrictor plate races, Montoya has the second-best average finish (13.6) and six top 10s. He should be working with team-mate Jamie McMurray, who can get to the front at these tracks.
Joey Logano - Joey has just six top 10s this season and one of those came in the first race at ‘Dega, where he finished 10th after starting 36th. Surprisingly, though, Talladega is Logano’s second-best track on the circuit. In five career starts here, “Sliced Bread” has notched four top 10s and completed all but twelve laps. Who knows, maybe his 12th-place run last week in Charlotte will give the youngster some momentum heading into this weekend.
Trevor Bayne - We all know how Trevor won the Daytona 500 to kick of this 2011 season (as well as the ensuing Bayne-mania) but he finished 40th in his first start at ‘Dega and was out of the second Daytona race this year after just four laps. He should have the car to get a solid top 10 for fantasy owners on Sunday, but you better hope he doesn’t wreck.
David Gilliland - No, I’m not joking here. In the three restrictor plate races in 2011, Gilliland has started 39th, but he finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 9th-place effort at Talladega in April. In the second Daytona race, David finished 16th. What can I say, I guess the guy knows how to stay out of the wrecks.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte 2 - Bank Of America 500
October 12, 2011
Last weekend Jimmie Johnson reminded all of us why he is a five-time champion, and this week the Sprint Cup Series rolls into Charlotte Motor Speedway, a track that “The Champ” has, for lack of a better term, basically dominated at since day one. The Bank of America 500 will be the final Saturday night race of this 2011 season, and hopefully we won’t get charged a fee to watch it. Last weekend–as I said in my Preview–was a snooze-fest, and don’t be surprised if this race (although it is under the lights, so that adds some excitement) is the same. Charlotte is a 1.5-mile race track with 24-degree banking in the turns. With 500 miles set to be ran, that means the cars will make at least 334 laps around this track on Saturday.
During The Last Race At Charlotte…NASCAR’s golden child was leading at end but ran out of fuel, allowing Kevin Harvick to grab the win in the Coca Cola 600. David Ragan ended up 2nd in that race, followed by Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and A.J. Allmendinger, who started 2nd. The top five finishers of that race led a combined 17 laps out of the 402 ran.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Bank Of America 500:
*Chase participants are marked in red*
1. Jimmie Johnson - As “Five Time” was absolutely dominating the field on Sunday, it reminded me of one thing that his crew chief, Chad Knaus, said earlier in the year: they were saving their good cars until the Chase. That’s bad news because it could be another Jimmie Johnson show in Charlotte on Saturday night. In twenty career starts, JJ has accumulated six visits to victory lane and ten top 5s. He has led more laps here (1,385) than anyone in the series here (even more than Bill Elliott, who has 62 starts at this track) and has an average finish of 10.8. Johnson only has one finish better than 28th in the last three points-paying Charlotte races, but don’t let that bother you: it’s a virtual guarantee that the #48 Chevrolet will be up front early and often on Saturday night under the lights.
2. Kyle Busch - Guess who has the best average driver rating at Charlotte over the past five races over everyone else in the series (even Jimmie Johnson)? You guessed it: “Rowdy” Busch. Although Kyle has never won at Charlotte Motor Speedway, I’m sure that will change eventually, and I’m willing to bet it will be sooner rather than later. In the 2010 races at this track, Busch led a combined 253 laps and ended up with 2nd and 3rd-place finishes. In this year’s Coca Cola 600, “Shrub” started 21st but ended up leading 55 laps before an accident ended his night and he finished 32nd. Before that race, though, Busch had a streak of seven top 10s here. NASCAR’s most hated driver needs a good run on Saturday if he wants to stay in the championship hunt, and I think Kyle Busch will be a contender by the end of the night.
3. Carl Edwards - In the last two weeks, we have seen Carl Edwards and the #99 team hurdle some major roadblocks and still end up with top 5 finishes. Just imagine what Cousin Carl is capable of without having some sort of problem during the race. Edwards now has seven straight top 10s in the Sprint Cup Series and is coming into the track that he owns the 3rd-best average finish of anyone in the series with more than one start (13.3). As you probably remember, Edwards won the All-Star race earlier this season and led 61 laps in the Coca Cola 600 but finished a disappointing 16th despite having the fourth-best driver rating in the race. Carl hasn’t had a top 10 at Charlotte in the last four races here but I expect that to change on Saturday.
4. Matt Kenseth - I didn’t really want to rank Kenseth this high going into the weekend–due to the fact of his fading at the end of the intermediate races this year–but there simply isn’t any other driver worthy of the #4 spot going into Saturday night’s race. Matt has made twenty-four starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway and has finished in the top 10 in exactly half of them (including one victory back in 2000). He finished 14th here in this year’s Coca Cola 600 but Kenseth led 103 of the 402 laps and had the best driver rating (124.4) in the race. In the last two October races at Charlotte, Kenseth has finished 2nd and 6th.
5. Kurt Busch - Last week’s 13th-place finish at Kansas is actually Kurt’s worst finish on the intermediate tri-oval race tracks this season. Yeah, the Double Deuce has been fast this year and I expect this team to restart their ways on Saturday night. Busch won the 2010 Coca Cola 600 and after his 4th-place finish in this year’s, he now has three top 10s in the last four Charlotte points-paying races. Kurt’s career average finish of 19.7 isn’t anything great, but it’s hard to go against a team that has been one of the best on this type of track this season.
6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has only finished in the top 10 in 23.8% of his Charlotte starts, but don’t let that statistic keep you from picking him this weekend: in the last three points-paying races here, “Happy” has grabbed a win and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. This team wasn’t great on the tri-oval intermediate tracks earlier in the season, but in the last three (Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas), Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 7th. I don’t think he has a shot at another win this weekend, but if fuel mileage comes into effect you never know.
7. Kasey Kahne - I personally am not on the Kasey Kahne bandwagon, but I feel like his recent performances (two straight top 5s) and his history at Charlotte (average finish of 14.1) earns him the #7 spot in my rankings this week. Believe it or not, Kahne has three victories at this race track and it is (statistically) his best on the circuit. He hasn’t had a top 10 here in the last three points-paying events, but from 2007 to 2009 Kasey pulled off five straight top 10 finishes here and three of them were top 5s. This Toyota has pretty much been a teens car on the intermediates this season but you know how much I like momentum…
8. Brad Keselowski - If BK has another solid run Saturday night, you can officially put my on the bandwagon. I’m 90% on right now and I seriously think he has a shot at the championship this year (I’ve been called crazy before). “Bad Brad” started on the pole in the Coca Cola 600 in May, but he did have the 8th-best driver rating in that race, and that race was before he caught on fire and raced his way into the Chase. Right now, Keselowski is 11 points out of the point lead, and if he can have a good run at Charlotte this weekend, Brad should be licking his chops for the next race on the schedule: Talladega, where he won at in 2009. I’m just saying…
9. Jeff Gordon - First off: how many times does Jeff Gordon blow up? I personally think his championship chances are now finished, but you know Jeff will be driving his ass off these weekend to try and get back in the hunt. In thirty-seven career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Gordon has visited victory lane five times and owns twenty top 10 finishes (sixteen of those being top 5s). This team struggled earlier in the season at these tri-oval intermediates, though, and now it looks like they may be heading into another slump on these tracks, with their 24th-place finish at Chicago and last week’s 34th-place run at Kansas. In the last two Charlotte races, Gordon has finished 20th and 23rd, so if he doesn’t blow you away in practice this week, you may be better off using a different driver. Be sure to check out what I think of each Chaser as well as some other drivers over at ifantasyrace.com once Happy Hour is over this weekend.
10. Denny Hamlin - Here’s another driver that I’m not real sure what to think of going into the weekend, but I’m sure I’ll have a better judgment of Hamlin once qualifying and practice is overwith this week. Denny has the fourth-best average driver rating here over the last five races and has finished 11th or better in three of them. He has just one top 5 in twelve career starts, though, and this team just seems off in this year’s Chase. If he qualifies bad and doesn’t look awesome in practice, avoid Denny Hamlin like the plague on Saturday.
11. Mark Martin - Mark is starting to become a solid pick at the intermediate tracks, so pick him while he’s hot. After last week’s 10th-place finish at Kansas, Martin now has three top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races and has just one finish outside of the top 20 since Bristol in late August. In his fifty-three starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Mark Martin has accumulated twenty-three top 10s and four victories. However, this is his fourth-worst track on the circuit, believe it or not. I won’t let that keep me from picking Martin, though: in the last nine points-paying races at Charlotte, Martin has just one finish worse than 17th.
12. Greg Biffle - Well, what do you know, Biffle finally put together an entire race at a tri-oval intermediate track (last week’s 8th at Kansas was his first finish better than 10th since his 4th-place finish at Texas in April). The Biff isn’t great at Charlotte (just six top 10s in seventeen career starts) but he did finish 5th in this race last season and has just one finish outside of the top 20 in the last seven points-paying races here. In this season’s Coca Cola 600, Greg led 50 laps and had the seventh-best driver rating but ended up finishing 13th.
13. David Ragan - Remember what I say: forget quickly when it comes to fantasy racing. I–along with many others–thought that Ragan had a great car in Kansas last Sunday, but he disappointed his fantasy owners with a 20th-place finish. I expect this team to rebound on Saturday night, though, and it seems like that always happens with Ragan. He finished 2nd here in the Coca Cola 600 but David also had the third-best driver rating in that race, so it’s not like he lucked into the finish. That makes it two straight top 10s for Ragan at Charlotte and don’t forget that he pretty much dominated The Sprint Showdown in May.
14. David Reutimann - Believe it or not, in the last five points-paying races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, David Reutimann has the fifth-best average driver rating (97.1), the second-best average finish (7.8), and hasn’t finished worse than 15th. As you may recall, Reutty won the rain-shortened Coca Cola 600 in 2009 but with his 9th-place effort here in May, as well as the two top 10s last season, Reutimann is proving that that win wasn’t a fluke. His career average finish here in nine races is 14.7, which is actually better than Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, and many others. As you know, though, picking the #00 Toyota is as risky as it comes: in the last three tri-oval intermediate races (Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas), Reutimann has finished 31st, 32nd, and 35th, respectively. He did finish 2nd to Kyle Busch at Kentucky in July, though.
15. Marcos Ambrose - Did you know that Ambrose has two straight top 10s now after his 9th-place finish at Kansas last week? I just noticed, too. The Tasmanian may be a solid fantasy sleeper this weekend, too. He led 18 laps and finished 6th here last May and in this race last season, Ambrose started 14th and finished 16th.
Those To Avoid Entering The Bank Of America 500:
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - His Chase chances are done, and Junior’ss run here in the Coca Cola 600 came while he was actually running like a championship-caliber driver. Before he finished 7th here in May, Earnhardt hadn’t had a top 20 in five-straight points-paying race at Charlotte. At best you’re looking at a teens finish from the #88 this weekend.
Ryan Newman - It seems like an underdog shows up just about at every race in Charlotte and that means I’m going to go away from picking the front-runners. Even if that wasn’t the case, though, I’d stay away from Newman this weekend. He has won the pole nine times (seriously) in twenty-one starts here, but has an awful average finish of 20.9 and just seven top 10s to show for it. In the last eleven points-paying races at Charlotte, “The Rocketman” has just two top 10s. After last weekend’s race in Kansas, Newman now has three straight finishes of 18th or worse, and don’t be surprised if he makes it four straight after Saturday.
A.J. Allmendinger - He may have had a good run here in May, but abnormalities do happen in NASCAR, but lightning typically doesn’t strike twice. After qualifying 2nd in the aforementioned race, that made two straight top 3 starts for Allmendinger at this race track. But the points aren’t given out for qualifying. That 5th-place run in the Coca Cola 600 has been A.J.’s only top 10 in nine career starts at Charlotte, and more than half of the time here he finishes outside of the top 20.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Broadcast Schedule
February 7, 2011
2011 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES BROADCAST SCHEDULE
TENTATIVE-SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Race Track
Date Race/Facility Network TV Start Start Radio Laps Miles Size__
Feb 12 33RD ANNUAL *BUDWEISER SHOOTOUT FOX 8:00PM 8:10PM MRN 75 187.5 2.5
Daytona Int’l. Speedway, Daytona Beach, FL; 2010 Winner: Kevin Harvick
Feb 17 40TH ANNUAL *GATORADE DUEL SPEED 2:00PM 2:00PM MRN 120 300 2.5
Daytona Int’l Spdwy., Daytona Beach, FL; 2010 Winners: Jimmie Johnson/Kasey Kahne
Feb 20 53RD ANNUAL DAYTONA 500 FOX 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 200 500 2.5
Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, FL; 2010 Winner: Jamie McMurray
Feb 27 7TH ANNUAL SUBWAY FRESH FIT 500TM FOX 2:30PM 3:00PM MRN 312 312k 1
Phoenix International Raceway, Phoenix, AZ; 2010 Winner: Ryan Newman 500k
Mar 6 14TH ANNUAL KOBALT TOOLS 400 FOX 2:30PM 3:00PM PRN 267 400 .5 1.5
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Mar 20 51ST ANNUAL FOOD CITY 500 FOX 12:30PM 1:00PM PRN 500 266.5 0.533
Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Mar 27 15TH ANNUAL AUTO CLUB 400 FOX 2:30PM 3:00PM MRN 200 400 2
Auto Club Speedway, Los Angeles, CA; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Apr 3 62ND ANNUAL GOODY’S FAST PAIN RELIEF 500 FOX 12:30PM 1:00PM MRN 500 263 0.526
Martinsville Speedway, Martinsville, VA; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Apr 9 15TH ANNUAL SAMSUNG MOBILE 500 FOX 7:00PM 7:30PM PRN 334 501 1.5
Texas Motor Speedway, Ft. Worth, TX; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Apr 17 42ND ANNUAL AARON’S 499 FOX 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 188 500 2.66
Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, AL; 2010 Winner: Kevin Harvick
Apr 30 57TH ANNUAL CROWN ROYAL Presents the Your Name Here 400 FOX 7:00PM 7:30PM MRN 400 300 0.75
Richmond Int’l Raceway, Richmond, VA; 2010 Winner: Kyle Busch
May 7 62ND ANNUAL SHOWTIME SOUTHERN 500 FOX 7:00PM 7:30PM MRN 367 501.322 1.366
Darlington Raceway, Darlington, SC; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
May 15 42ND ANNUAL DOVER 400 FOX 12:30PM 1:00PM MRN 400 400 1
Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE; 2010 Winner: Kyle Busch
May 21 27TH ANNUAL *NASCAR SPRINT ALL-STAR RACE SPEED 7:00PM 7:30PM PRN 100 150 1.5
Charlotte Motor Speedway, Charlotte, NC; 2010 Winner: Kurt Busch
May 29 52ND ANNUAL COCA-COLA 600 FOX 5:30PM 6:00PM PRN 400 600 1.5
Charlotte Motor Speedway, Charlotte, NC; 2010 Winner: Kurt Busch
June 5 INAUGURAL KANSAS SPEEDWAY 400 FOX 12:30PM 1:00PM MRN 267 400.5 1.5
Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS; 2010 Winner: Inaugural Event
Jun 12 30TH ANNUAL POCONO 500 TNT 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 200 500 2.5
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Jun 19 43RD ANNUAL HELUVA GOOD! SOUR CREAM DIPS 400 TNT 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 200 400 2
Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Jun 26 23RD ANNUAL TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 TNT 2:00PM 3:00PM PRN 110 218.9 1.99
Infineon Raceway, Sonoma, CA; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson 350.24k
Jul 2 53RD ANNUAL COKE ZERO 400 powered By Coca-Cola TNT 6:30PM 7:30PM MRN 160 400 2.5
Daytona Int’l Speedway, Daytona Beach, FL; 2010 Winner: Kevin Harvick
Jul 9 INAUGURAL KENTUCKY 400 TNT 6:30PM 7:30PM PRN 267 400 .5 1.5
Kentucky Speedway, Sparta, KY; 2010 Winner: Inaugural Event
Jul 17 19TH ANNUAL LENOX INDUSTRIAL TOOLS 301 TNT 12:00PM 1:00PM PRN 301 318.458 1.058
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Jul 31 18TH ANNUAL BRICKYARD 400 ESPN 12:00PM 1:00PM IMS 160 400 2.5
Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indianapolis, IN; 2010 Winner: Jamie McMurray
Aug 7 38TH ANNUAL PENNSYLVANIA 500 ESPN 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 200 500 2.5
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA; 2010 Winner: Greg Biffle
Aug 14 26TH ANNUAL HELUVA GOOD! SOUR CREAM DIPS AT THE GLEN ESPN 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 90 220.5 2.45
Watkins Glen Int’l., Watkins Glen, NY; 2010 Winner: Juan Pablo Montoya
Aug 21 42ND ANNUAL MICHIGAN 400 ESPN 12:00PM 1:00PM MRN 200 400 2
Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI; 2010 Winner: Kevin Harvick
Aug 27 51ST ANNUAL IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE ABC 7:00PM 7:30PM PRN 500 266.5 0.533
Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN; 2010 Winner: Kyle Busch
Sep 4 52ND ANNUAL LABOR DAY CLASSIC 500 ESPN 6:30PM 7:30PM PRN 325 500.5 1.54
Atlanta Motor Speedway, Atlanta, GA; 2010 Winner: Tony Stewart
Sep 10 54TH ANNUAL “ONE LAST RACE TO MAKE THE CHASE” 400 ABC 7:00PM 7:30PM MRN 400 300 0.75
Richmond International Raceway, Richmond, VA; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Sep 18 11TH ANNUAL CHICAGOLAND 400 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM MRN 267 400 .5 1.5
Chicagoland Speedway, Chicago, IL; 2010 Winner: David Reutimann
Sep 25 15TH ANNUAL SYLVANIA 300 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM PRN 300 317.4 1.058
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH; 2010 Winner: Clint Bowyer
Oct 2 42ND ANNUAL AAA 400 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM MRN 400 400 1
Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE; 2010 Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Oct 9 11TH ANNUAL KANSAS 400 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM MRN 267 400.5 1.5
Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS; 2010 Winner: Greg Biffle
Oct 15 52ND ANNUAL BANK OF AMERICA 500 ABC 7:00PM 7:30PM PRN 334 501 1.5
Charlotte Motor Speedway, Charlotte, NC; 2010 Winner: Jamie McMurray
Oct 23 43RD ANNUAL TALLADEGA 500 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM MRN 188 500 2.66
Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, AL; 2010 Winner: Clint Bowyer
Oct 30 63RD ANNUAL TUMS FAST RELIEF 500 ESPN 1:00PM 2:00PM MRN 500 263 0.526
Martinsville Speedway, Martinsville, VA; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Nov 6 7TH ANNUAL AAA TEXAS 500 ESPN 2:00PM 3:00PM PRN 334 501 1.5
Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth, TX; 2010 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Nov 13 24TH ANNUAL KOBALT TOOLS 500 ESPN 2:00PM 3:00PM MRN 312 312 1
Phoenix International Raceway, Phoenix, AZ; 2010 Winner: Carl Edwards 500k
Nov 20 13TH ANNUAL FORD 400 ESPN 2:00PM 3:00PM MRN 267 400.5 1.5
Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, FL; 2010 Winner: Carl Edwards
*Non-championship points event ALL TIMES LISTED ARE EASTERN
2008 OPeR Award: Worst Post Race Interview
January 3, 2009
Every few weeks ON PIT ROW, the fact that the driver who has won more Sprint Cup races the last four years and now, three straight Cup Series championships, just doesn’t get the respect he deserves.
Jimmie Johnson deserves better. But hell, we’ve even been spelling his name incorrectly for the last three years. Who are we to change now?
J J gets the OPeR for bad post race interviews for the same reason that he probably gets slighted in the respect department. He’s boring. If he’d stop winning and get pissed off once in a while, he’d get noticed more. Well, maybe.
Chasing Wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
September 11, 2008
The Chase has been set, the eyes are even more focused on the prize. From all the coverage this week, you would think that the starting grid had been reduced from 43 to 12. That’s not the case here, at On Pit Row.
Who can spoil the fun and break into the Top-5 party, or even steal a win and the Thunder from the Chasers?
You can look at loop this and that all you want. I’ve always been of the school of thought that, “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Eat your heart out.
The stats would tell you to expect more of the same, with most of the Chase contenders heading up the Top-5.
The thing that always bugs me with stats are they fail to take certain things into consideration. Heart, momentum, desire and determination to name a few.
Let’s cut to the Chase, or the lack thereof, to be more specific.
Martin Truex Jr. is one such spoiler that surprisingly the stats have pretty high for NHMS overall. Naturally Truex is a favorite to spoil the Chasers little party, despite recent struggles overall.
Brian Vickers is another look to spoil some fun. While they didn’t make the Chase, the improvements to that team have been nothing short of incredible this season. Even more so over the past dozen or so races. Had they ran that way all season, Tony and Kyle very well could have had some additional manufacturer company.
Our final dark horse of the week is none other than Beak. David Reutimann. Those laps led at Richmond weren’t a fluke. While their season hasn’t been the best of times, compared to 2007 they have to getting more sleep at night. Ol’ Beak has been coming on in the past 6 races, scoring the 16th most points. That isn’t a stat, that’s a fact, by the way. While they may not be able to slip one past the goalie for a win here, they could very well take a Top-10 spot from a Chaser.
Our Dark Horse for entertainment purposes? Robby Gordon, and y’all should know why. Not that I think he’ll finish well, he still has to make the show even, but provided he does he most certainly could provide a little bit of entertainment for the fans.
Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding
September 10, 2008
Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?
Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.
But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance.
These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant. It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”. But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less. Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.
Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6. He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver. And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2. Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races.
Combined stats give the race a different look
After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart. Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson. Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07. That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them. Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats. Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9. The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS.
Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007. So far, 2008 has been a three horse race. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races. Jimmy Johnson has come on of late.
Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS. J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score. But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1. Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens.
Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8. He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008. The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats. He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR of 102.2.
Can Cousin Carl?
By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1. He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS. Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart. If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.
The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7. Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.
Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though. Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track. His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7. It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.
Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS. He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway. Here is a trivial fact for you. Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track. Track position? He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.
I’m picking Tony Stewart. The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over. It was good to see Smoke still has the fire. My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars. Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average. I’ll take Martin - Mark, not Truex.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.
If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire
September 9, 2008
The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:
2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase
Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.
That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place
Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.
The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media
No Way No How No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire
September 8, 2008
NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set. The pressure to get in the top twelve has passed. If you’re in, the question is, can you win it all.
And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races. Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?
“That’s one of worst races I probably could have drove, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing. I’m glad we’re in in a way, but in another way with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.”
That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years. Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I. More from Matt…
“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville. Our short track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason. We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger track stuff seems to be running OK.”
I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt. This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.
“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around – the teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can and that’s what they’ve done and it made an unbelievable difference.”
Did Reiser take away from the no. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edward’s no. 99 and Biffle’s no. 16? Maybe and maybe not. But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win. He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week. The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer. Check it out and sign up to play.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different. Martinsville on steroids is a popular description. And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers. David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon. His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts. As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.
Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower. Juan Pablo Montoya - on a track that I think favors him - comes in at 63.4 in three races.
But what about the other contenders? Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon. Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier - 83.1. Gordon’s Ave Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0.
But the chemistry of Carl Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne- perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch - makes me think that this race will produce a better result. If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond? I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.
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Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow
Steve Wronkowicz
I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Over ten years on the air and three on the net; see what can happen when I don't let the facts get in the way of my opinions.
