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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas – Samsung Mobile 500

After the first weekend off of the 2012 season, the Sprint Cup Series will now have five straight points-paying races before another “break,” which will be the All Star weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Three of these five–including this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway–will be some good old Saturday night racing. This is your typical cookie-cutter track, and Texas (which is a 1.5-mile, d-shaped oval) is most comparable with Atlanta Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

During The Last Race At Texas…Tony Stewart led a race-high 173 laps en route to his fourth win of the 2012 season. This was in the midst of Smoke’s battle with Carl Edwards, who finished 2nd. Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, and pole-sitter Greg Biffle rounded out the top 5. Kenseth won the spring race earlier in the season. Interesting fact: eight drivers who started in the top 10 finished there in the April Texas race, with five doing the same in November.

Practice Schedule…Things will be a little different than most weekends. Practice #1 will start at 5:30 pm on Thursday evening. Once that is over, the cars won’t be on the track until the next day; Happy Hour will be at 3:00 pm on Friday followed by qualifying at 6:30. The Samsung Mobile 500 is set to start a little after 7:00 pm on Saturday. That could be a little interesting because the cars won’t be on track for practice at any of the same time frame when the actual race will be ran. For those that play Yahoo! Auto Racing: the deadline to set your rosters is Friday morning.

Click here for the entry list for the 2012 Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

1. Tony Stewart - Not sure how much detail I need to go into here. Stewart is on absolute fire at the intermediate tracks and should be on your roster, no matter what, until further notice. As I said before, Smoke won the last race at Texas in 2011, which was the second of his career here (the first coming back in 2006). His average finish of 12.6 in twenty starts at Texas Motor Speedway is fourth-best in the series, and Stewart has the third-best average driver rating over the last four events here. Make no mistake about it, the #14 will be up front at some point on Saturday night, and right now I’m thinking he’s going to win the Samsung Mobile 500.

2. Greg Biffle – These next three drivers could be ranked any way in spots 2 through 4 this weekend. They should all three be good picks, but I’m just giving the nod to The Biff and Kenseth because Roush-Fenway Racing has been the best organization at Texas over the last two years. The Biff has been the only driver in the series to finish in the top 10 in each of the last seven races here, and the last three have all been top 5s. When it comes to driver rating, Biffle hasn’t had one under 92.5 at Texas since early 2008. I’d consider Greg a lock for a top 5 on Saturday night.

3. Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth has the best average finish of anyone in the series at Texas Motor Speedway (8.7) and has just one finish outside of the top 20 in nineteen career starts here. He’s led 756 laps here–also a series-best–and like his team mate Greg Biffle, Kenseth has three straight top 5 finishes here. He put the #17 Ford in the top 5 during qualifying in both 2011 events here, but Matt has yet to record a pole at Texas. Kenseth’s finishes have been lacking on the intermediates so far in 2012 (22nd at Las Vegas and 16th at Fontana) but there’s no reason to think this team won’t turn that around on Saturday night. He won this event last season and had a near-perfect driver rating of 144.7 while doing so. As usual, Kenseth will be good pick at Texas, but I’m not considering him a lock for a top 5 yet.

4. Jimmie Johnson – When you look at Five Time’s record at all of the current tracks, you might be surprised to find that Texas is pretty far down the list (in 13th). However, Johnson still owns an average finish of 10.2 here and twelve top 10s in seventeen starts. He won the fall race in 2007 and Jimmie has recorded three top 10s in the last four races here. Johnson has the second-best average driver rating on the intermediates thus far in 2012 (chart here) and still hasn’t finished worse than 12th since Daytona. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday night, although I don’t see Johnson fighting for the win. He should, however, still have a nice, solid race, as usual.

5. Carl Edwards – Despite having three victories at this track, Cousin Carl’s average finish here isn’t that great (although it’s not terrible, either). In fourteen career starts, Edwards has amassed six top 10s, but also four finishes outside of the top 25. When you add it all up, Carl’s average finish is 15.5. There’s no reason for that to scare you away from picking him this weekend, though. I have a hunch that this team is finally getting their wheels underneath them, and that this “hangover” they are experiencing will go away this weekend. Edwards finished 3rd and 2nd in the two Texas races in 2011 and has posted top 5s in both intermediate races thus far in 2012. He had led the fifth-most laps at this track of anyone in the series (493).

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Somewhat quietly (for who it is, anyway) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is off to the absolute best start of the season in a very long time (maybe even his whole career). Junior now has two straight 3rd-place finishes after Martinsville a couple weeks ago, and–ironically–that is also the number of top 5s he has recorded in nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway. His average finish of 14.1 is eighth-best in the series at this track and Earnhardt has notched three top 10s in the last four races here, which is where I expect him to end up on Saturday. In the intermediate races thus far this season, Junior has the fourth-best average driver rating (chart here) and has finished 10th and 3rd. He’s one of only four drivers with two career poles at this track.

7. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has averaged the fifth-best driver rating in the two cookie cutter races this season (chart here) and I expect him to have another solid Chevy at Texas this weekend. In eighteen starts at this track, “Happy” has averaged a finish of 12.9–which is fifth best in the series–and owns eight top 10s. He doesn’t lead many laps, though, with just five total coming in four different races. Harvick’s best finish here has been 3rd, which came back in 2006, and in seven of the last nine events here, Kevin has finished 13th or better. Texas is his sixth-best track on the circuit (statistically).

8. Ryan Newman -This ranking may be a little too high for The Rocketman, but I can’t look past the fact of how strong him and his owner have been on the intermediate tracks this season. Newman finished 4th at Las Vegas and wound up in 7th at Fontana, and he ran in the top 10 for most of those two races. At Texas, though, Newman’s record is a little bit discouraging. However, I’m not too worried about it. In seventeen starts here, The Rocketman has averaged a finish of 20.7 while amassing just three top 10s. The good news? He’s been consistent. In the last six events at Texas, Newman hasn’t finished worse than 20th and in five of the six he’s ended up between 11th and 16th. I like him for a fourth top 10 at Texas going into this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer – I’ve jumped the gun a bit on Bowyer at the intermediates this season, but that’s not to say he isn’t a bad pick. I think this team is capable of grabbing their fourth top 10 of the 2012 season this Saturday night, but it’s nowhere near a lock. Clint’s history at this track, however, is pretty good, so it’s probably going to come down to how strong the #15 Toyota is this weekend. In twelve career starts at Texas, Bowyer has notched seven top 10s, and even finished runner-up in this race last year. In the last five events at this track, Clint has finished in the top 10 in four of them. This is the seventh-best track on the circuit for Bowyer (statistically) and he should be a solid pick on Sunday night, but make sure he looks good in practice before committing.

10. Martin Truex, Jr. – Another week down and another solid finish for Truex, so that begs the question: is he a real Chase contender? You can vote by clicking here. At Texas, Martin tends to have a good race unless he gets in an accident, which happened in the fall race of 2010 and this race last season, where he finished 38th and 35th, respectively. However, Truex six top 10s in thirteen starts to his name here, and you know what I always say: pick ‘em while they’re hot. He finished 17th at Las Vegas and 8th at Fontana. I’m not sure what happened during the Vegas race, but the #56 Toyota was in the top 10 for the majority of the event (Yahoo! chart here). I’m expecting another top 10 out of Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend.

11. Denny Hamlin – Denny seems to have a really good finish at Texas or end up in the lower teens or worse, and with his performance at the intermediates in 2012 thus far, I’m not giving him the benefit of the doubt going into this weekend. Hamlin won both Texas races in 2010 and has three more top 5s to his name in thirteen career starts. His average finish of 10.2 is second best in the series at this track, but qualifying has been a sort of struggle for this team here lately: in the last six Texas races, Hamlin hasn’t started any race in a spot better than 22nd. We’ll see what #11 shows up this weekend because it’s been a tale of two cars in the two intermediate races this season.

12. Kyle Busch – Rowdy was an early favorite of mine to take the championship this season, but he’s really letting me down–as well as fantasy owners–thus far. I’m not sure what to expect out of Kyle this weekend in Texas, to be honest with you. His record here is decent: thirteen starts, five top 10s, with an average finish of 16.2, and he owns the ninth-best average driver rating in the last four races here. He didn’t race in the fall event here last season (suspension) but Kyle ran a decent race here in April last year, starting 11th and finishing 16th. If he starts in the top 10, I’d give Rowdy more consideration, but going into the weekend there are simply too many other options that would be better than the #18.

13. Mark Martin – Martin is back behind the wheel of the #55 Toyota this weekend, and I expect another solid teen finish out of him like we have gotten in the other cookie cutter events in 2012 (he wound up 18th at Las Vegas and 12th at Fontana). Mark has made twenty-two career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and owns twelve top 10s, including a win back in 1998. He struggled in the two 2011 events here but in 2009 and 2010, Martin wound up in the top 10 in all four Texas races. He will probably look faster than he is in practice, just to warn you.

14. Kasey Kahne – One of these weeks, the #5 team is going to break out and finally put together a complete race, but the question is when. Kahne’s history here at Texas is hit-or-miss; in fifteen career starts, he’s notched four top 5s (including a win from the pole back in 2006) as well as five finishes of 25th or worse. What I’m expecting out of Kasey this weekend is similar to what we saw out of him in Fontana: have a good qualifying effort but then fall back early and just ride around and get the finish. He wound up in 14th that race and you can view his Yahoo! chart by clicking here.

15. Brad Keselowski – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: BK just has a knack for getting to the front in races this year; he’s led at least one lap in four of the first six events in 2012. His finishes on the cookie cutters this season have been less than stellar (32nd at Las Vegas and 18th at Fontana), but when you look at his Yahoo! Driver Charts for those races (here and here, respectively), the Blue Deuce was at least a top 15 car. At Texas, Brad’s best finish has been 14th in seven career starts, and I expect him to finish right around that mark on Saturday. He’s also my dark horse pick of the week.

Those To Avoid Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Joey Logano – If his 26th-place average finish at Texas doesn’t scare you away from Sliced Bread this week, then his performance on the intermediate tracks thus far in 2012 surely will. He finished 16th at Las Vegas but Logano’s Yahoo! chart (click here) shows that he had really a mid-twenties car until the end of the race. He has a 4th-place finish to his credit at Texas (back in 2010) but other than that race, Logano hasn’t finished on the lead lap in any other of his seven career starts at this track.

Juan Montoya – Like Logano, Juan Pablo Montoya rarely finishes all of the laps when the series visits Texas Motor Speedway. He has made ten career starts at this race track and has ended up with just two top 10s (in 2007 and 2009), in which he was on the lead lap at the end. In the seven starts here that Montoya has finished at least one lap down, he owns an average finish of 26.6. His average driver rating in the first two intermediate tracks this year has been 59.0. I wouldn’t expect much out of the #42 this weekend.

Aric Almirola - I’m not a big advocate of “start saving” when it comes to Yahoo! Auto Racing, but I just see no point in taking Almirola on the intermediate tracks; it has been obvious so far this season that the #43 team is at its best on the short/flat tracks. He’s going to be a mid-twenties driver just like the Las Vegas and Fontana (24th and 25th, respectively) and you should be able to at least match that by picking Trevor Bayne, who finished 17th in this race last season (IF he is entered this week).

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2010 Samsung Mobile 500 from TMS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Paul Menard	5	8.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	4	13.86
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Joey Logano	24	16.71
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	13	14.57
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	2	8.71
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	15	9.86
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	15	11.71
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	9.29
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jamie McMurray	22	11.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	22	20.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	15	15.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	7.14
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	6.71
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	15	15.57
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	2	9.14
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	15	9.29
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	4	9.14
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Geg Biffle	4	17.43
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Paul Menard	5	10.29

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas – Samsung Mobile 500

The Sprint Cup Series heads to “The Great American Speedway” in Texas this weekend for the first night race of the season. The green flag is set to wave around 7:30 eastern time on Saturday night after a practice session and qualifying is held on Friday afternoon. The first of the two practice sessions this weekend is set to be run on Thursday at 5 o’clock eastern time. Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile quad oval similar to Charlotte Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are really very few drivers that are consistently up front here, so picking for a race like this can sometimes be difficult.

During The Last Race at Texas…Denny Hamlin started 30th but wound up winning the race here in November after leading 31 laps. Greg Biffle had the most laps led that day with 224; he ended up finishing 5th. Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Joey Logano filled in the space between Hamlin and Biffle in the finishing order. During the spring race here in 2010, Hamlin also found victory lane after starting 29th and leading just 12 laps. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five that day. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle were the only drivers to record top ten finishes in both races at Texas Motor Speedway in 2010.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The cars from Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have the best average finish here over the past two years, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of the Hendrick Motorsports boys. You can’t overlook Roush-Fenway Racing when the series comes to these intermediate tracks but they haven’t won here since 2008 when Carl Edwards swept both races. Usually those who start near the front finish there, but as Denny Hamlin showed in both races last year, it is not necessary to be fast in qualifying to visit victory lane. If you are wondering how important average practice speed is at Texas, click here for the results of the fall race last year with the drivers ranked on how fast they were in practice.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

1. Kevin Harvick – I said in the off-season that everyone should jump off of Harvick’s bandwagon while they could, but it looks like I need to jump back on (read that story by clicking here). The #29 Chevrolet was junk for 80% of the race in Martinsville but they got it dialed in late and Harvick wound up winning the race. He really is living up to his nickname of “The Closer.” At Texas, Kevin has made 16 career starts and owns an average finish of 12.4 with a best finish of 5th. I think he has a great shot to better that this week, as he has had super fast cars at most of the races this year–including two weeks ago at Las Vegas. He’s only led five laps here in his career, but it’s the last lap that counts, as Harvick should know by now. His past three finishes here have been 6th, 7th, and 5th.

2. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is actually really, really good at this track and he’s on a roll this year, with three straight finishes of 6th or better and no finish lower than 11th since Daytona. He finished 20th in the spring race here last season, but before that he was on a streak of six straight top 10s, and he turned around and finished runner-up in the fall race. In seventeen starts at this track, Kenseth has recorded 11 top tens (including one win) and has an average finish of 9.5. He’s finished runner-up at this track four times.

3. Denny Hamlin – His teammate, Kyle Busch, says that Joe Gibbs Racing has found the cause of their engine problems, and this week will be a good one to test that statement. As I said before, Hamlin won both races at Texas in 2010 and has an average finish of 4th over his past four starts at this track. He’s finished outside of the top 20 only once in eleven tries here, and that is evident by his career average finish of 8.8. After last week’s heartbreaker and with the engine problems Gibbs has had this year, Hamlin could be a risky pick, but as the saying goes, “high risk, high reward.”

4. Jimmie Johnson – For the last three years, “Five Time” has finished 2nd in the first race held at Texas Motor Speedway. Can he continue that streak this weekend? It’s surely possible, especially with how strong he was at Fontana. In fifteen starts at this track, Johnson has amassed eleven top 10s, including one win in 2007. He’s also finished outside of the top 15 just twice in his career at this track, so expect another solid day out of “The Champ” on Saturday night.

5. Greg Biffle -Over the past four races at this track, “The Biff” has the best average driver rating in the series and the third-best average finish (6.5). He’s on a five-race streak of top 10s at this 1.5-mile racetrack and he won here in 2005. He started 3rd and 2nd at Texas in 2010 so expect a good qualifying effort out of Biffle on Friday as well. He’s struggled a bit at these intermediates thus far in 2011, but I expect that to change on Saturday.

6. Tony Stewart – The Stewart-Haas cars have been really strong on the intermediate tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. “Smoke” won here in 2006 and has an average finish of 13.2 in eighteen career starts at this track. In the last seven races at Texas, Stewart has just one finish outside of the top 20, and it will take a wreck or mechanical failure for that number to be two after this weekend’s race.

7. Kurt Busch – Last week, Kurt finished 16th in Martinsville after being a 30th-place car for much of the afternoon. I don’t expect the “Double Deuce” to be a 30th-place car this weekend, so a top ten can be expected on Saturday. Kurt has struggled at this racetrack here and there, but he has three top tens in his past four starts and a career average finish of 13.8. He won the fall race in 2009.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Little E has been running great this season and hasn’t finished worse than 12th since Daytona. He’s struggled at Texas recently–with just one top ten (8th last season) in the past eight races here–but this is the track where he got his first Sprint Cup series win. With another strong car this weekend, Junior might find victory lane and finally end his winless streak. He should have a good qualifying effort on Friday, too, as his average start at this track is around 10th.

9. Kyle Busch – This ranking will probably prove to be too low once it’s all said and done, so look for Shrub to move up when I post my predictions on Friday. Last fall, Busch had a fast car but, in case you don’t remember, he was penalized two laps for flipping off a NASCAR official and finished 32nd. Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race last season, and that is his best finish at this track. If you think his engine will last all race, Rowdy probably won’t be too bad of a pick this weekend.

10. Ryan Newman – As I said before, the Stewart-Haas cars have hit on something at these intermediate races this year. Newman isn’t the first driver I think of when the series comes to these tracks, but he finished 5th in Las Vegas last month as well as in Fontana a couple weeks ago. “The Rocketman” won at this track in 2003, and while his best finish is 11th while driving for Stewart-Haas at this track, that could easily change this weekend. His average finish in the past two years at Texas is 14.5.

11. Carl Edwards – Edwards isn’t as consistent at this track as he is at other intermediates, but he’s won here three times and you can never overlook the 99 here. He hasn’t finished better than 10th here since his wins in 2008, but Carl is having a great season so it’s very possible that he turns his luck around at this track. He won in Las Vegas and had just a decent car at Fontana but still got a 6th-place finish. If he looks good in practice, expect Cousin Carl to move up when I make my predictions on Friday.

12. Mark Martin – This team is lacking something this year, and until they get it figured out, I won’t be very high on Martin. He hasn’t finished worse than 6th at Texas in his past four starts here and has an average finish of 12.4 in his career here. I think Martin will be a mid-teens driver on Saturday night, with a small shot at a finish around 10th if he can get lucky.

13. Clint Bowyer – Clint has made ten starts at this track and owns five top 10s and an average finish of 14.5. He’s finished 7th, 7th, and 4th in past three fall races at Texas, so you might want to wait until November when the series visits this track again to pick him. Bowyer has two top tens in a row now, though, so he looks to be climbing out of the hole that he dug himself in earlier this season. He ended up 7th in Fontana.

14. Martin Truex, Jr. – If Truex qualifies in the top ten on Friday, expect a good race from him on Saturday. He finished 6th at Las Vegas after qualifying 9th and has top ten finishes in every race that he has qualified there at Texas. Martin’s average finish here is 16.1 and, as always, be cautious if you pick him this weekend because he is always a risky pick.

15. David Ragan – David got his first top ten of the season last week in Martinsville (who expected that?) and could get his second on Saturday, although I would say a top fifteen is more likely. In eight starts at Texas, Ragan has three finishes of 37th or worse, but in the other five races he hasn’t finished worse than 17th. David ended up 15th and 8th at this track in 2010.

Underdogs Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose hasn’t been terrible this year at the intermediates and has found success at this track. He’s made five starts here and has just one finish worse than 21st. Last year he finished 17th and 12th at Texas and had a super fast Ford at Las Vegas a month ago.

Trevor Bayne – With Bayne running a limited schedule, this is an excellent place to use him in allocation leagues. He made his Sprint Cup debut here last fall and posted a respectable 17th-place finish. The Daytona 500 winner finished 20th at Las Vegas, and I think he will be right around there this weekend with the possibility of a top fifteen.

A.J. Allmendinger – I like him better at the flat tracks, but Allmendinger has found success at the intermediate tracks as well. He finished 14th at Fontana and ended up 19th at Las Vegas. The ‘Dinger hasn’t finished worse than 14th at Texas in his past three starts here and has been quietly having a very consistent season.

Paul Menard – As you know, these are the tracks that Menard excels at, so it’s a good idea to keep him in the back of your mind when the series comes to the intermediates. He got a 10th-place finish here last fall and in the two races at intermediate tracks this season, Menard had finishes of 16th and 12th.

Those To Avoid Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Brian Vickers – Vickers has two top tens on the intermediates this year, so he may surprise me this weekend, but his average finish at Texas is 23.8 and he hasn’t finished better than 16th here since 2007. His best result at this track came in his first start, and that was 12th.

Joey Logano – “Sliced Bread” posted a top five at Texas in the fall last year, but his next best finish is 19th. With the way this young man’s season has been going, I’d wait until he has a few good races before taking Logano.

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won here in 2009, and while he has nine top 10s in his twenty starts at this track, he also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. He hasn’t been impressive at the intermediates this season, either, ending up 36th at Las Vegas and 18th at Fontana. There are better choices than the #24 this week.

Brad Keselowski – His teammate, Kurt Busch, may have found success at Texas in the “Blue Deuce,” but I doubt that BK will. He finished 14th here last spring but his career average finish is right around 25th. He won’t be any good for qualifying bonus points, either, as Keselowski has never started better than 35th at this track.

Hopefully you like night races because we’re entering a streak of them. Over the next four races, three of them will be held on Saturday night. Be sure to check out my post-qualifying race predictions on Friday over at ifantasyrace.com and if you’re looking for a good place to chat with other fans during the race, check out NASCAR Nation.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Denny Hamlin	1	13.91
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	11.29
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	6	10.56
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	19	11.79
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	32	13.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	1	10.18
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	9	10.85
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	12.82
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	9	13.62
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	11	12.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	9	10.71
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	14.15
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Matt Kenseth	2	12.29
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	32	13.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	32	14.12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	6	10.82
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch	32	13.50
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	9	11.53
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	1	14.65

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	15.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	13.82
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Dale Earnhardt Jr	25	19.59
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	13	11.65
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	25	15.97
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinMark Martin	33	13.9114.09
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	15.21
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Juan Pablo Montiya	28	12.41
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann	15	14.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	16	13.50
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jamie McMurray	16	15.29
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	3	15.15
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	3	16.00
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	15	18.18
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	15.76
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	3	16.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	38	19.82
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray	16	12.53

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Texas Motor Speedway hosts the final event on a 1.5 mile x 24 degree race track. In addition to the April race at Texas, fantasy owners also have two races from Atlanta Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway to pull results from. This trio of cookie-cutter tracks all share the same configuration and provide managers with a great opportunity to score a ton of points.

Top drivers in 2010 races on 1.5 mile x 24 degree tracks

	ATL1	TX1	CHR1	ATL2	CHR2	AVG
Kyle Busch	25	3	3	5	2	7.6
Kurt Busch	1	4	1	6	30	8.4
Matt Kenseth	2	20	10	11	6	9.8
Jimmie Johnson	12	2	37	3	3	11.4
Kevin Harvick	9	7	11	33	8	13.6
A.J. Allmendinger	6	13	14	18	25	15.2
Jamie McMurray	29	30	2	15	1	15.4
Mark Martin	33	6	4	21	14	15.6
Ryan Newman	17	11	9	8	36	16.2
Jeff Burton	20	12	25	4	20	16.2
Tony Stewart	13	32	15	1	21	16.4
Regan Smith	14	21	19	17	13	16.8
Martin Truex, Jr.	27	9	23	12	15	17.2
Denny Hamlin	21	1	18	43	4	17.4
Clint Bowyer	23	36	7	7	17	18.0
Marcos Ambrose	11	17	36	10	16	18.0
Kasey Kahne	4	5	12	32	38	18.2
Jeff Gordon	18	31	6	13	23	18.2
Greg Biffle	8	10	32	36	5	18.2

 

Chasing the pole at Texas Motor Speedway

1. Jeff Gordon… Three poles since 07 at Texas. Won the pole at Charlotte in October.
2. Tony Stewart… Won the pole in April at Texas, eighth or better in four straight.
3. Carl Edwards… Started fourth at Atlanta in September, second at Charlotte in October.
4. Kasey Kahne… Qualified on the outside pole in last year’s Chase race at Texas, sixth or better in three straight.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.

1.  Jimmie Johnson… Won 11/07 race at Texas, three runner-up finishes in the last five starts. Y!-A1
2. Kyle Busch… Average running position of eighth or better in five of the last eight starts at Texas. Y!-A2
3. Denny Hamlin… Won 4/10 race at Texas, runner-up in last year’s Chase race. Y!-A3
4. Kevin Harvick… Five finishes of 11th or better in the last six starts at Texas. Y!-B1
5. Kurt Busch… Won 11/09 race at Texas, finished fourth in April start. Y!-A4
6. Jeff Gordon… Won 4/09 race at Texas, average running position of 13th or better in seven of the last eight starts- over 100 laps led three times.
7. Clint Bowyer… Average running position of 15th or better in five of the last eight starts at Texas. Y!-B2
8. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner (4/07, 4/97) at Texas, average finish of 8.0 since 07. Y!-B3
9. Tony Stewart… Won 11/06 race at Texas, average running position of 13th or better in 10 of the last 11 starts.
10. Matt Kenseth… Won 4/02 race at Texas, average running position of ninth or better in seven of the last 10 starts with six Top Fives. Y!-B4
11. Mark Martin… Won 4/98 race at Texas, average finish of 7.2 in the last five starts.
12. Greg Biffle… Won 4/05 race at Texas, four straight Top 10 finishes.
13. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner (08 sweep, 11/05) at Texas. Held an average running position of 12th in April.
14. David Reutimann… Average running position of 11th or better in four straight starts at Texas. Y!-B5
15. Jamie McMurray… Crashed in April start at Texas, average running position of 14th. Y!-B6
16. Ryan Newman… Won 3/03 race at Texas, three straight Top 15 finishes. Y!-B7
17. Kasey Kahne… Won 4/06 race at Texas. Finished fifth in April start, first Top 15 since 06 win. Y!-B8
18. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of 17th or better five times in seven career starts at Texas.
19. A.J. Allmendinger… Two straight Top 15 finishes at Texas. Y!-C1
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 4/00 race at Texas, has never held an average running position worse than 15th.
21. Paul Menard… Average running position of 18th or better in three of the last five starts at Texas. Y!-C2
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 13.9 in 10 career starts at Texas.
23. Joey Logano… Average finish of 29.2 in four career starts at Texas, has never finished on the led lap.
24. Brad Keselowski… Finished 14th in April start at Texas, average running position of 27th.
25. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 16.0 in the last two starts at Texas.
26. David Ragan… Three Top 15s in the last five starts at Texas.
27. Sam Hornish Jr…. Two Top 20s in the last three starts at Texas. Y!-C3
28. Elliott Sadler… Won 4/04 race at Texas. Average finish of 23.1 in 17 career starts at Texas.
29. Regan Smith… Finished a career-best 21st in April start at Texas. Y!-C4
30. Scott Speed… Average finish of 17.0 in the last two starts at Texas, average running position of 24th in each.
31. Aric Almirola… Finished 33rd in only career Cup start at Texas (5/09).
32. Bobby Labonte… Average finish of 23.1 in 19 career starts at Texas.
33. Bill Elliott… Finished 25th in April start at Texas.
34. Casey Mears… Finished 21st in both starts last year at Texas.
35. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 25.5 in 15 career starts at Texas.
36. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 26.1 in seven career starts at Texas.
37. David Gilliland… Average finish of 26.4 in eight career starts at Texas.
38. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 30.4 in 14 career starts at Texas.
39. Patrick Carpentier… Finished 28th in only career start at Texas (4/08).
40. Josh Wise… Zero career Cup starts. Average finish of 19.0 in two career Nationwide starts at Texas.
41. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
42. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
44. Andy Lally… Likely start and park.
45. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park.
46. Jeff Green… Likely start and park.
47. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. 10 DNQs this season.
48. Scott Riggs… Likely start and park. Three DNQs in five attempts this season.
49. Brian Keselowski… Failed to qualify in all three Cup attempts this season.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Greg Biffle	10	7.88
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	8.13
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	10	14.25
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	10	12.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	31	18.00
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.13
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Matt Kenseth	20	8.88
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	31	17.88
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	32	14.00
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	32	12.75
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	10	10.50
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	4	17.00
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	32	15.38
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jeff Gordon	31	18.00
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	31	12.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	20	13.13
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	20	10.63
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Matt Kenseth	20	15.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kurt Busch	4	12.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	17.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Samsung Mobile 500 from Texas

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	9	18.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	4	8.00
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Sam Hornish Jr	19	18.13
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	6	9.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	6	11.63
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Kurt Busch Mark Martin	4 6	9.38 8.50
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	4	7.50
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Kurt Busch	4	7.13
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kurt Busch	4	8.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	4	9.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kurt Busch	4	8.25
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Denny Hamlin	1	10.38
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	4	14.13
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	4	17.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	6	11.13
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	6	14.63
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	5	22.50
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Mark Martin	6	10.38

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Samsung Mobile 500 from Texas

In terms of scheduling, Texas Motor Speedway is in a great spot to win fantasy points. The first 1.5 mile x 24 degree race was just a few weeks ago at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and is a great starting point for making selections this week at Texas. Join us Thursday at 7PM ET for the Fantasy NASCAR Live Chat.

Chasing the pole at Texas Motor Speedway

1. Jeff Gordon… Has started on the front row five times in the last six races at Texas.
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr…. Won the pole at Atlanta.
3. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started third at Atlanta. Average start of 8.3 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Won 4/09 race at Texas, 13th in November. Finished 18th at Atlanta. Five Top 10s in the last seven races at Texas. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Won 11/07 race at Texas. Runner-up in each of the last two April races at Texas. Y!-A2
3. Matt Kenseth… Won 4/02 race at Texas. Has finished 12th or better in nine straight races at Texas, two Top Fives last year. Runner-up at Atlanta. Y!-B1
4. Kurt Busch… Won 11/09 race at Texas. Won at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Mark Martin… Won 4/98 race at Texas. Texas ’09 finishes: sixth, fourth. Y!-A4
6. Greg Biffle… Won 4/05 race at Texas. Last three finishes at Texas: fifth, third and eighth. Finished eighth at Atlanta.
7. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 13.3 in 14 career starts at Texas. Finished ninth at Atlanta. Y!-B2
8. Tony Stewart… Won 11/06 race at Texas. Texas ’09 finishes: fourth, sixth. Finished 13th at Atlanta.
9. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner (’08 sweep, 11/05) at Texas. ’09 finishes: 10th, DNF.
10. Kyle Busch… Texas ’08 finishes: third, sixth. Texas ’09 finishes:: 18th, 11th. Won the last four Nationwide races at Texas. Won last year’s Truck race.
11. Clint Bowyer… Three Top 10s in the last four races at Texas. Y!-B3
12. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner (4/07, 4/97) at Texas. Finished ninth in both Texas races last year. Y!-B4
13. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best seventh in last year’s April race at Texas. Finished third at Atlanta.
14. Ryan Newman… Won 3/03 race at Texas. Texas ’09 finishes: 15th, 12th. Y!-B5
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won race 4/00 at Texas. Average start of 9.1, average finish of 14.6 in 15 career starts at Texas. Y!-B6
16. Joey Logano… Finished a career-best ninth in November race at Texas. Average finish of 13.3 in three career Nationwide starts at Texas. Y!-B7
17. Brad Keselowski… Average finish of 25.7 in three career Cup starts at Texas. Average running position of 15th at Atlanta. Two Top Fives in ’09 Nationwide races at Texas. Y!-B8
18. Kasey Kahne… Won 4/06 race at Texas, only one Top 20 since ’07. Finished fourth at Atlanta.
19. Brian Vickers… Four Top 20s in the last six races at Texas. Finished seventh at Atlanta.
20. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Last three April races at Texas: 15th, 17th, 13th. Finished fifth at Atlanta. Y!-C1
21. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. Finished a career-best 15th in 11/09 race at Texas. Finished 11th at Atlanta.
22. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished a career-best 10th in 11/09 race at Texas. Finished sixth at Atlanta. Y!-C2
23. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 14.4 in nine career starts at Texas.
24. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 15.4 in 12 career starts at Texas.
25. David Reutimann… Last three finishes at Texas: 10th, 11th, 16th.
26. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 10.6 in nine career starts at Texas.
27. Scott Speed… Strong value play. Finished 18th in 11/09 race at Texas. Finished 10th at Atlanta. Y!-C3
28. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Texas ’09 finishes: 17th, DNF. Won three IndyCar races at Texas. Y!-C4
29. Bill Elliot… Strong value play. Texas ’09 finishes: 28th, DNF. Finished 16th at Atlanta.
30. Elliott Sadler… Won 4/04 race at Texas. Finished a season best 19th at Atlanta.
31. David Ragan… Last four finishes at Texas: 13th, 11th, DNF, 17th. Last two weeks: 16th, 19th. Finished 37th at Atlanta.
32. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 33.0 in four career starts at Texas. Finished 14th at Atlanta.
33. David Stremme… Long shot value play. Finished 14th in 4/09 race at Texas.
34. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 30.8 in 13 career starts at Texas.
35. Bobby Labonte… Texas ’09 finishes: DNF, 31st. Finished 22nd at Atlanta.
36. David Gilliland… Average finish of 26.0 in seven career starts at Texas. Finished 26th at Atlanta.
37. Travis Kvapil… Texas ’08 finishes: 18th, 32nd. Finished 30th at Atlanta.
38. Kevin Conway… First career Cup start at Texas. Finished 31st at Atlanta.
39. Max Papis… Finished 35th in 4/09 race at Texas. Finished 34th at Atlanta.
40. Johnny Sauter… No Cup Series starts since ’07 at Texas. Finished sixth in both Truck races last year.
41. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts at Texas. DNQ in five races this season, including Atlanta. Average finish 15.9 in 24 career Truck races at Texas.
42. Reed Sorenson… Finished 36th in both races last year at Texas. No Cup starts this season.
43. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
44. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
45. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
46. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park.

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