Chasers are 1 for 1: Let the nightmares of Monsters begin

September 18, 2008

A congrats are in order for Greg Biffle, for taking the first Chase win for 2008.

Getting down to business, let’s get a quick summary of who crashed the Chase party at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and review last weeks “predictions“.

Prediction 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Finishing in a respectable 7th place. Luke: 1 for 1;
Prediction 2: Brian Vickers
Finishing a dismal 35th, thanks to getting the ol’ T-Bone from David Gilliland. Luke: 1 for 2;
Prediction 3: David Reutimann
Finishing decent in 15th, there were 28 other competitors who would have loved to trade spots. Not too shabby, Beak. Keep on keepin’ on. Luke: 1 for 3; (Half credit? Almost count?)

Now on to this weeks job. Taming the Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway.

Our first spoiler lead off last week as well. Now we’re to the home track of Martin Truex Jr., and he would love to take those checkers here at Dover. If you had to place a wager on tracks this team goes the extra mile for, this is certainly one of them. Finishing a strong 6th here in June, look for that to remain the case as he takes a Top10 from a Chaser.

David Ragan is looking for a bit of redemption after finishing 28th last week. David had a Top-15 here in June, and certainly has the capability for improvement by sneaking into the Top-10.

Ryan Newman needs a finish. Is he too distracted thinking of greener pastures? Perhaps, but it’s about time he had something solid. No stranger to the challenge of the Monster Mile.

There are several other possibilities for taking valuable Top-10 points from a Chaser. David Reutimann, or even Brian Vickers, but then again they have that potential just about any given week as of late. Potential doesn’t mean Top-10, however, as we find out week in and week out.

Dover offers a unique challenge. Steve will tell you it’s the concrete. Some will say it’s the banking. For me, I think the challenge comes from keeping it together for 400 miles while running at high speeds in what could be called Bristol’s big brother.

Those who can keep it focused for the distance will have the highest chances of success here. There’s a lot of time spent in the corners, and the constant battering of G-forces can take their toll. Keep your head in it, remain focused, and breathe when you can and you may just tame that Monster.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Luke · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment

Chase Round Two: Headin’ to Dover

September 17, 2008

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One bad race has plenty of Kyle Busch backers jumping off the band wagon. A broken bolt and a bad attitude made the once invincible looking Busch look anything but.

I wouldn’t count the Shrub out of the Chase yet however. Then again, maybe I will. I don’t like the signs of reemerging immaturity from the younger Busch. He has never been in a Cup championship run before. His reaction to the handling problems that cost him his chance at a good finish in the first Chase race wasn’t what one would call “grace under fire”.

Even with the 34th place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle’s year-to-date Loop Driver Rating remains the series’ best at 109.7 and he has third best stats for the coming race at Dover International Raceway. Average the two and he still tops the sheet – 108.3. Busch has led fully 21 percent of all Sprint Cup Series laps run in 2008. It’s to soon to say he’s choking. But it is something to watch.

Does Biffle Carry the Big Mo?

Another driver to keep an eye on is Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle. Not only did the Biff win the first Chase race, but he holds top stats for Dover Downs too. Biffle has Series beating stats in nine of the 16 Loop Data Box Score categories for Dover. His Ave Position – 6.3 and Finish – 5.4 make sense when you see that he’s run 95.5 percent of the last seven Monster Mile races in the top 15. His 393 Laps Led are second to Matt Kenseth’s 491. He leads with 267 Fastest Laps and a Driver Rating of 116.1.

Besides Kyle Busch, only Carl Edwards - 104.5 – has a higher Average Driver Rating for Dover and year-to-date than Biffle 104.3. Edwards finished third at Loudon behind Biffle and Jimmy Johnson. Carl has the best Ave Finish for all of 2008 – 9.8, the most Fastest Laps and has run more Laps in the Top 15 than anyone - 77.9 percent He’s been consistent and looked poised at New Hampshire.

Winning Championships is Learned Behavior

And so did Jimmy Johnson. But as the two-time defending Cup Champ, he has been here before. It wasn’t easy though. The winner of the last two Chase’s came into the first two Chase playoff’s as one of the favorites. He dominated the regular season races in 2004 and 2005 only to fail in the actual Chase itself. Some things have to be learned. Johnson did, but others have yet to prove they have.

Johnson has been so good the last four years that his Loop stats are strong for nearly every track. But his 2008 season-to-date numbers are third best overall too. His combine Driver Rating is fourth for Dover at 103.3. He doesn’t lead any categories but has three wins, four top fives and eight top tens.

A Field Full of Winners

Matt Kenseth, as said, has the second best Driver Rating for Dover and he’s had 11 top tens and six top fives to go with a win. I just don’t like the team body language out of the No. 17. They finished 40th at New Hampshire, through no real fault of Kenseth. But as Matt said after the race, if they ran up front more, they wouldn’t get caught in other folks’ problems as much. Not a winning combination right now.

Martin Truex Jr and Jeff Gordon are tied for the next best combined DR for Dover. Truex got his first win here in 2007 and Gordon has four wins on the concrete mile. Gordon also has five DNFs to go with 14 top fives and 19 top tens. That no. 24 just hasn’t looked like much of a threat lately. I’ll have to see something before I can pick Jeffy again.

Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Bucsh and Kenseth all join Gordon, Johnson and Edwards as past winners on the Monster Mile. Stewart, Gordon and Johnson are the multiple winners.

I wrote about my thoughts on Stewart’s chances here. Dale Junior is another who seems maybe to be feeling the heat. He was in mid-meltdown mode Sunday over his radio with crew chief Tony Eury when team owner Rick Hendrickcame on the line and cooled things down. Junior’s stats for Dover aren’t eye popping but combined with his good overall 2008 numbers, his DR is a respectable 91.3. I do think that Earnhardt will win a race or two in the Chase, but it’s going to be hard to predict. And I won’t pick him here.

Jeff Burton just seems to be tough to pick anywhere. He’s nearly always good, with terrific consistency. But Dover is an anomaly for Burton. The guy who nearly always finishes, has five Dover DNFs. He has a combined DR of 90.1.

I’m going to go with the stats – and see if there is anything to this momentum stuff – I’ll take Greg Biffle to win. The darkhorse rider this time is Ryan Newman. Sixth best Dover DR – 99.7, third best Ave Finish of 8.3 and third most Laps in the Top 15.

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Photo credit: Icon Sports Mediia, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, NASCAR Loop Data | Leave a Comment

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

September 9, 2008

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Matt Mercer · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Hosts Start to The Chase

September 7, 2008

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of the most storied tracks on the Sprint Cup Series.

It has been described as “Martinsville on steroids”; because of its long straights and rather flat turns. Brakes are a big story at New Hampshire. Those drivers that have brakes at the end of the race will have a decided advantage over drivers that have used them up early on.

Efforts to bring a major racing facility took off in 1989 when ground was broken for New Hampshire International Speedway on a site about 10 miles north of New Hampshire’s capital city, Concord. The track opened for the first time in June 1990 and hosted its first NASCAR touring series event, the Budweiser 300 for the Busch Series. The Cup Series followed in July 1993, with Rusty Wallace getting the victory.

NHMS is just over one mile in length; officially measured at 1.058 miles with 1 degree of banking on the straights and new progressive banking in the corners that ranges from two to seven degrees. The ninety-two foot wide turns were reconfigured in 2002 to incorporate the variable banking angle thus making the racetrack more driveable. Drivers like the sixty-five foot wide staights which lends itself to passing anywhere on the race track.

In 2000, the track was the site of a pair of fatal accidents which took the lives of two young drivers. In May, while practicing for a Busch Series race, Adam Petty’s throttle stuck exiting turn two. The result was a full speed, head-on crash in turns three and four. When the Winston Cup Series made their Spring appearance, a similar accident occurred to 1998 Rookie of the Year Kenny Irwin, Jr.

NASCAR with track owner, Bill Baird, decided to run restrictor plates on the cars during the Fall race, making it the first track outside of Daytona and Talladega to use them. Jeff Burton led flag to flag; resulting in the quick demise of restrictor plate racing at New Hampshire.

Track safety was put front and center starting in 2003, as the track was an early adopter of the SAFER (Steel and Foam Energy Reduction) Barrier technology; outfitting its turns with the soft walls. In 2005 a new infield care center was built, followed in 2006 by a new heliport.

In 2004, the track hosted the first race in the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup. As it turned out, that race played a big role in how the battle for the championship played out. Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman and Jeremy Mayfield were involved in a wreck that stymied their championship hopes, while Kurt Busch, who had won the July race, completed a season’s sweep that started him toward the 2004 Nextel Cup championship.

NHMS not only hosts the first race in The Chase for the Sprint Cup; but it is also the first race in the ten races leading up to The Chase, known as the “Race to The Chase.”

Speedway Motorsports Inc. owner, Bruton Smith, announced on November 2, 2007 that his company had purchased the speedway from the Baird family for $340 million dollars cash and the track would be renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Ryan Newman holds the current track qualifying record of 28.561 sec. (133.357 mph) set September 12, 2003, while Jeff Burton set the race record in July of 1997 with an average speed of 117.134 mph.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Steve Wronkowicz · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, On Pit Row | 2 Comments

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