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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Kansas - STP 400

This week the Sprint Cup Series makes its first of two stops at Kansas Speedway. Since this 1.5-mile tri-oval racetrack opened in 2001, the series has ran just one event at the speedway, but this season NASCAR decided to add a second race earlier in the season while keeping the fall race during the Chase. Two practice sessions are set to be held for the drivers on Friday afternoon with qualifying starting around noon on Saturday. There will be no practice time for the cars between the end of qualifying and the start of the race, so it may be a little difficult to go off of practice speeds this week. Either way, be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com as well as my post-qualifying Predictions, which will be posted on Friday night and Saturday afternoon, respectively.

During The Last Race At Kansas…Greg Biffle started 5th and went on to lead 60 laps before taking the checkered flag ahead of Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Jeff Gordon. “Smoke” had the most laps led that day with 76. This was also the race that Kyle Busch and David Reutimann got into it, which some was the event that some believe that ruined “Rowdy” Busch’s chance at the championship. If you would like to watch the race recap for last season’s Price Chopper 400 at Kansas, click here. The full results can be found by clicking here, and that link also shows how each driver was in terms of average speed during practice that weekends.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Check out how the other intermediate races shook out earlier this season to have an idea of how the Kansas race will end up on Sunday. With only one race per season at this track, it is hard for any driver to separate themselves from the pack. Only three drivers have career average finishes inside the top ten at this track: Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The STP 400:

1. Carl Edwards - The #99 Ford is very fast every week this season, and I don’t expect anything different for the upcoming race at Kansas. Edwards has notched top six finishes at California, Las Vegas, Texas, Richmond, and Darlington–all intermediate tracks–and I expect him to post a solid top five this weekend as well, if not a win. Carl has four top 10 finishes in the last five Kansas races, but his bad finishes of 22nd and 37th here in 2004 and 2007 have dragged down his average finish to 12.3. He should improve that this weekend, though.

2. Jimmie Johnson - It’s very rare to see Johnson record two bad finishes in a row, so after last week’s engine failure, expect a good run out of the #48 Chevrolet this weekend. His career average finish at Kansas is right around 9th and he has three top 3 finishes in his past four starts here. He has just two finishes outside of the top 10 in nine starts at Kansas, and one of those was a 14th. Johnson ended up 2nd at California earlier this season and wound up 8th at both Texas and Richmond.

3. Greg Biffle - In six of the last seven Kansas races, Biffle has finished in the top three. The other race was a 12th-place effort, and in Biffle’s nine career starts at this track, he has just one finish outside of the top 12. Can you say “lock”? As long as his air hose is working on Sunday and they can get enough fuel into the race car, Biffle should challenge for a top five on Sunday, and may even grab his first win of the season.

4. Matt Kenseth - Just like any other intermediate track, it’s not a good move to go against the Roush-Fenway stable. Over the past two races at Kansas, Matt has the fifth-best average driver rating but just the twenty fifth-best average finish (he had an engine problem during the 2009 race). Kenseth has just four top 10s in his ten starts at Kansas, but with the way this team has been running this season, I expect a strong run out of them on Sunday.

5. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has an average driver rating of 127.4 over the past two years at Kansas, which is second behind Greg Biffle. He posted finishes of 1st and 4th in those two races, and like I said last week, summer is coming soon and that’s when Stewart really starts running well. Stewart has seven top 10s in ten starts at Kansas, and that includes two wins. If he starts in the top ten, pick him: every race he has started there at Kansas, Tony ended up finishing in the top ten as well.

6. Kevin Harvick - The series’ most recent winner has three top 6 finishes in the past four Kansas races, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made it four of five once the checkered flag waves on Sunday afternoon. He probably won’t qualify well (as usual) but don’t let that discourage you from picking Harvick this week. His career average starting position at Kansas is right around 24th, but he generally ends up about ten places above where he starts.

7. Clint Bowyer - This is Clint’s fifth-best track statistically, believe it or not. He posted finishes of 9th, 2nd, and 12th in his first three starts here, but has slipped recently, with 21st and 15th-place efforts in his other two races here. He finished 5th at Texas this season, so if they can get the car dialed in this weekend, expect a good run out of the #33 Chevrolet on Sunday.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - In case you haven’t been paying attention this season, Junior has been running very well at the intermediate tracks. He almost won last week in Charlotte and he recorded top 10 finishes at Las Vegas, Texas, and Charlotte. Jimmie Johnson posted on Twitter that the 88 will be in victory lane soon, and I believe him. Earnhardt has made ten starts at Kansas and has four top 10 finishes, and if he has another strong car this weekend, I expect Junior to get his fifth. If not, a top 15 is still very likely.

9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than 12th at Kansas since 2007, but he has only led two laps in his career here, so don’t expect the #11 to be out front all day. Denny has had some good runs at the intermediates this year, posting top ten finishes at Charlotte, Las Vegas, Richmond, and Darlington. As long as his engine can hold on, expect Hamlin to improve his career average finish at Kansas this weekend, which is currently at 17.8.

10. A.J. Allmendinger - In all reality, A.J. should have two top 5s in a row. His run last weekend came out of nowhere last week in Charlotte, but I was lucky enough to have him on a couple of my fantasy rosters. At Kansas, Allmendinger has made three starts and has come away with two top 10 finishes and a worst finish of 17th. With as strong as his teammate has been on the intermediates this year, it won’t be surprising to see The Dinger run up front on Sunday afternoon.

11. Kasey Kahne - The Red Bull Racing team is terribly inconsistent and their cars will either be super fast or terrible this weekend, so the rankings for them could easily change once I update my rankings after qualifying. Kahne has two top 10 finishes here in seven starts, and he also has two finishes outside of the top 30. Is he a risky pick this week? Of course, but high risk, high reward. The #4 Toyota finished 3rd in Richmond and 4th at Darlington this season.

12. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” will either be strong on Sunday–like he was at the intermediates to start off the season–or he will have just decent speed and end up right around his average career finish at Kansas (17.5). He finished 9th last season, but that was Newman’s first top ten here since his win in 2003 at this track.

13. Brian Vickers - As I said before, Red Bull can be very inconsistent, so don’t be surprised if Vickers finishes well above (or well below) this ranking. He finished 37th at Kansas in 2009 (he didn’t race here last season or in 2007) but before that, Brian’s worst finish was 19th in his first four starts here–including an 8th-place effort in 2006. Vickers has posted top ten finishes in two intermediate races this season: Richmond and Las Vegas.

14. Mark Martin - Martin has been good at getting solid top 20 finishes this season, and he’s done the same thing at Kansas, too: in ten starts at this track, Mark has just one finish outside of the top 20, and that was a 25th in 2002. Martin won here in 2005 and has an average career finish of 12.6 at Kansas Speedway. Will he finish that high on Sunday? I don’t think so, but I guess it’s possible. A finish between 14th and 20th is much more likely.

15. David Ragan - I have been saying week in and week out that I really like how David Ragan is running this season, especially on the intermediate tracks. He’s 18th in points and has the best average finish of his career except for 2008 (the year that he made the Chase). In four starts at Kansas, David has came away with three finishes in the top 16–including an 8th-place effort in 2008.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The STP 400:

Marcos Ambrose - The Tasmanian Devil is running great this season, and just may make the Chase–as I predicted. He has made three career starts at Kansas, and while two of them ended in finishes outside of the top 30, Ambrose did finish 14th here in 2009 and has been running great at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, including his 6th-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway last week.

Paul Menard - I may be completely wrong because Menard’s season is quickly going downhill, but you have to believe that they will turn things around eventually. He finished 8th here last season but his other three starts at Kansas have given Menard finishes of 27th, 27th, and 30th. He was running strong last week in Charlotte until he hit the wall, and I think he could have another strong run this weekend–as long as the bad luck bug doesn’t hit the 27 team.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has three straight top 20 finishes and I think he could easily extend that streak to four on Sunday. He has made two starts at this track and has finishes of 23rd and 13th. It seems, to me anyway, that the pairing of Keselowski and his crew chief in the Nationwide Series last year (Paul Wolfe) is really starting to benefit the 2 team and they are starting to be consistent week in and week out.

David Reutimann - As you should know, it’s not very smart to go against Reutty when the series comes to the intermediate tracks. He’s not great at Kansas by any means, but he did record an 8th-place finish in the 2009 race here. Remember that Reutimann won at Chicago last season, which is the sister track to Kansas. Let’s not forget that David has four finishes in the top 16 in the last five Sprint Cup races of the season.

Those To Avoid Entering The STP 400:

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” has made three career starts at Kansas Speedway and has a best finish of 17th. He got a top five last week in Charlotte, but I just don’t see Logano completely turning his season around this weekend. The entire Joe Gibbs Racing stable isn’t very good at this track, anyway.

Kyle Busch - This may be the only week that I will tell you to avoid “Rowdy” Busch. Statistically, this is his third-worst track on the circuit and he has only one top 10 in seven starts at Kansas. Could he pull off a surprise top ten this week? Of course–it’s Kyle Busch, you know–but he’s way too risky of a pick for me this weekend.

Jeff Gordon - I never would have imagined that Jeff Gordon would be on my “Avoid” lists as much as he has been on them this season. He has four straight top 5s at Kansas, but trust me: that streak will end this week. He has just one top 15 finish at the intermediate tracks this season, which is well below average for the #24 Chevrolet. Wait until Gordon puts together a good run on the intermediates before expecting a solid finish in the upcoming races at those tracks.

Jeff Burton - Last week in Charlotte was the race that Burton should have gotten his first top 10 of the season, and he didn’t. Don’t expect another good run–like he had in the Coca Cola 600–this weekend at Kansas, though. He has ten starts here and has just two top 10s and a career average finish of 18.5.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte - Coca Cola 600

The schedule this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is finally back to normal–in my mind at least. There will be a practice session held on Thursday afternoon and qualifying will be held later that night. Friday will be an off-day for the drivers, but Saturday they will get two practice sessions to perfect their cars for the big race on Sunday night. The Coca Cola 600 is the longest race (in terms of mileage) for the 2011 season, and Charlotte is definitely known for producing some very exciting racing.

During The Last Points-Paying Race At Charlotte…Kyle Busch led 217 laps but it was Jamie McMurray crossing the finish line first. Busch went on to follow him, and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Greg Biffle rounded out the top five. In last year’s spring race (the 2010 Coca Cola 600), the elder Busch brother (Kurt) led 252 laps after starting second and picked up his second–and ultimately final–win of the season. McMurray finished 2nd in that race, while Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann closed out the top five. McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to post top ten finishes in both races at Charlotte Motor Speedway during the two points-paying races in 2010. In last weekend’s All-Star Race, Carl Edwards won the $1 million dollar prize followed by Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Tony Stewart, and Greg Biffle.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Now that the schedule is back to normal, I would put a lot of emphasis on average practice speeds and ten-lap averages during the final two sessions to determine your rosters. Here’s how each driver did in practice last fall at Charlotte and how they finished. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards were both two of the fastest in average speed for the recent All-Star race, and one went on to win the race (Edwards) while Biffle finished 5th. Tony Stewart had the best ten-lap average during the All-Star practice and wound up finishing a solid 4th. Be sure to check out my practice breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com this week, as it will be more telling as to who has a good car than the recent ones have.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been pretty much untouchable all season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. As you know, Edwards won the All-Star Race last weekend, and while he’s not stellar at Charlotte by any means, he does have an average finish of 11.3 in points-paying races here. He finished 3rd at Texas and won at Las Vegas, so expect Edwards to fight for the win on Sunday night, especially after not getting the finish he deserved at Dover.

2. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has never won at Charlotte–and that includes All-Star Races. He is, however, on a seven-race streak of top 10s in points paying races at this track, and the only reason his average career finish here is so low (15.2) is because he wasn’t very good at this track early in his Sprint Cup career. The race is 600 miles on Sunday night (and that doesn’t include practice), so Kyle better hope that the Gibbs engine problem is solved or he will severely disappoint fantasy owners on Sunday night. Busch finished 2nd to Edwards in the All-Star Race last weekend.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has four straight top 10s at Charlotte and I fully expect that streak to continue this weekend. He finished 6th in the All-Star Race (out of 21) and has a little momentum after “stealing” a win in Dover. His driver rating at Charlotte over the past two years is fourth-best in the series, so Kenseth isn’t getting good finishes here just by dumb luck. He won here in 2000 and has finished outside of the top twenty just 6 times in his 23 career starts at this track.

4. Jimmie Johnson -In the eight points-paying races at Charlotte from 2003 to 2006, “Five Time” finished in the top three in every single race. His career average finish here is right around 9th and he owns six wins at this track. You probably wonder why–with those numbers–Jimmie isn’t ranked number one this week. Well, he didn’t run well at all in the All-Star Race (11th-place finish), and while I know that that race doesn’t particularly translate to how someone will run during the actual race, it’s still the same track. There has never been a points-paying race at Charlotte–that Johnson participated in–that he didn’t lead a lap, so expect JJ to challenge for the lead at least once on Sunday night.

5. Greg Biffle - Load up on the Roush Fords this weekend! They “Big Three” in that stable all looked great in the All-Star Race, and “The Biff” ended up 4th after starting 3rd. His career average finish at Charlotte is 15.5 and he finished 4th at Texas in April. Greg has never won here, but he does have six top 10s in his 16 career starts at this track. He’s been pretty good for the entire season this year, and if you take away some of the problems they had (like the fuel issue at Vegas), could easily be in the top eight in points.

6. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is either going to challenge for a top five on Sunday night, or he’s going to finish in the 30s. I don’t particularly like Red Bull Racing at Charlotte, but his teammate has found some success in that equipment. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is right around 13th and he won both races here in 2006. As long as his equipment holds up and nothing crazy happens to the #4 Toyota on Sunday night, a good finish should be expected.

7. Tony Stewart - It’s almost summer, and that’s the time when “Smoke” really starts running well. He finished a respectable 4th in the All-Star Race last weekend, and Tony hasn’t posted a top ten finish in the last six points-paying races at Charlotte, I could easily see that changing this weekend. He has one win here–that came in 2003–and Stewart’s career average finish at this track is 12.2. Watch Stewart’s average speed during practice, as well as his ten-lap average. If he’s near the top in both of those, stick him on your roster.

8. Jeff Gordon - Gordon hasn’t had a top ten since Talladega, so this ranking may be a bit high. If he practices just decent or even below-average, avoid him this week. I don’t like how Gordon is running this season, and pretty much the only time I will take him is if he surprises me in practice. At Charlotte, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six races and owns a career average finish right around 15th–including five wins. In his twenty career top 10s at this track, sixteen have been top 5s, so expect a really strong run or a disappointing finish out of Gordon this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin - Like I said before, the Gibbs stable better hope that their engines can last for the longest race of the season. Hamlin’s career average finish at Charlotte is 14.6 and he finished 4th here in the fall after ending up 18th in 2010’s Coca Cola 600. The former has been his best finish ever here (All-Star Race included), so don’t expect Hamlin to challenge for the win, but a top ten is possible. He ended up 7th in the All-Star Race last weekend out of 21.

10. Kevin Harvick - I really didn’t know how to rank Harvick this week, so this is probably going to be one of the drivers that will either go way up or way down when I make my post-qualifying predictions. He finished 11th and 8th in the two Charlotte races during the 2010 season, but that was last year when he was having a remarkable season overall. His career average finish at this track is 17.2, but you never know where “The Closer” will end up when it’s all said and done. He finished 9th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

11. Mark Martin - I’m still not liking how Martin is running this season, which is why I have him ranked 11th. He has been good here recently, with a worst finish of 17th over the past four races, but I just don’t see him doing anything spectacular on Sunday night. Martin’s average finish over the course of career at Charlotte Motor Speedway has been right around 15th, and I think he will finish between 11th and 15th on Sunday night.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finished 2nd at Texas in April and has two top 10s in his past three starts at Charlotte. His best finish here came in 2007 when he finished 2nd and Clint finished 2nd in the All-Star Race last weekend after starting 2nd. A finish between 12th and 15th is likely for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cracked the top ten. He has six top 10s in the last seven races of the year, so he definitely has momentum on his side.

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Logano’s best track, but I don’t think that he will finish as good as his career average finish (6.9). He has three top 10s in his four career starts at Charlotte with a worst finish of 13th, which came last year in the Coca Cola 600. With the way his season has been going, I probably won’t pick him this week, but you can’t go against Joey’s history at this track. He finished 5th in the Showdown last weekend.

14. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s season has to turn around eventually..right? He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season, and while I don’t think that he will repeat anywhere near that on Sunday night, this is his third-best track on the circuit (with an average finish of 15th) and a top fifteen is definitely possible. Be sure to watch the #1 Chevy in practice. McMurray finished 17th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

15. David Reutimann - Statistically, this is Reutty’s best track, so he should definitely be in the back of your mind all week. He won 2009’s Coca Cola 600 (although it was rain-shortened) and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since then, including 5th and 9th-place efforts last season. He finished 3rd in the All-Star Race out of 21.

Underdogs Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Regan Smith - Statistically, Charlotte is Smith’s second-best track, and he hasn’t been too terrible for being a C-list driver in Yahoo! He finished 13th here last fall after a 19th-place effort in last year’s Coca Cola 600, and in Regan’s four career starts here, his worst finish has been 23rd.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose usually races very well in the Showdown races, but that success doesn’t translate to actual points-paying races. He finished 4th at Las Vegas and 6th at Texas, though, so make sure you watch the #9 Ford in practice.

David Ragan - I really like how Ragan is racing this season and his car looked great when he won the Showdown last weekend. The #6 Ford wound up 8th in the All-Star Race, ahead of Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson. In the last six points-paying races at this track, David has three top 10s and he finished 7th at Texas in April.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two finishes of 5th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but he’s pretty inconsistent–and Red Bull Racing is as well. He has three top tens in the last four races, and if he has a good car on Sunday night, Brian could make that four of five.

Those To Avoid Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior just isn’t very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He looked average in both the Showdown and the All-Star Race, and Little E hasn’t posted a top ten in a points-paying race here since early 2008. Over the past two years, drivers such as Casey Mears, Scott Speed, and Robby Gordon have better average finishes than Earnhardt at this track. Robby Gordon! Pass on the 88 this weekend. He finished 14th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Jeff Burton - In the last four points-paying races at Charlotte, Jeff Burton has posted three finishes in the 20s. Those finishes aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships, so stay away from him this week. I would say a mid-teens finish for Burton this week would be the best that he could do.

Kurt Busch - I understand that Kurt Busch was very solid here last spring, but it seems like week in and week out lately the “double deuce” isn’t running up to potential. He’s either really good here or really bad, but and the only way I would recommend him this week would be if he qualified up front and looked great in practice. Kurt finished 13th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski - BK has had a couple of good races recently at Darlington and Dover, but I’m going to wait a while until I really believe that the chemistry between him and crew chief Paul Wolfe will translate to a bunch of success in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski finished 20th and 27th at the two Charlotte races in 2010. He finished 18th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover - FedEx 400

This week the Sprint Cup Series visits Dover International Speedway for the FedEx 400. This will be the first of two races this season at this 1.0-mile racetrack, with the other happening in October. Seven current drivers have at least two wins at Dover, so for the second week in a row we might see a first time winner (or so we hope). 400 laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, with the green flag set to drop around 1:45 p.m. eastern time. Two practices will be held on Friday morning/afternoon and qualifying is set to start around noon on Saturday–which will be the final time the cars are on the track before raceday.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson started from the pole and led 191 laps before winning his sixth (and ultimately final) win of the 2010 season. Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson and Kyle Busch led over 95% of the laps, and the latter went on to take the checkered flag by the end of the race. JJ wound up 15th that day because of a late pit road speeding penalty, while Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and David Reutimann all scored top fives that day, along with Busch. The only drivers to finish in the top ten in both Dover races last season were: Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The FedEx 400:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl won here in 2007, and believe it or not, this is statistically his third-best track. He has made thirteen starts at “The Monster Mile” and has the best average finish of anyone in the series with 7.7. Edwards has posted at least a top-ten finish in nine of the last eleven races here and his worst effort in his career here has been 18th–which was his first start here. With the way his season is going, I fully expect the #99 Ford to challenge for the win on Sunday.

2. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” would be ranked number one this week, but I still don’t think that he’s running as well as normal. I know he’s second in points, but we’re not seeing the consistently strong #48 Chevy week in and week out, even though he still somehow manages to get the good finishes. His average driver rating over the past four races here has been 142.9–which is absolutely incredible–and he has recorded three wins in those four races. Jimmie’s average finish at Dover is 9.7 and he has six total wins here.

3. Ryan Newman - Believe it or not, this is statistically Newman’s best track on the circuit. He has 18 starts at Dover and has visited victory lane three times, although the most recent was in 2004. After his string of three sub-par races, “The Rocketman” notched another top five for the season last week in Darlington, and I full expect him to continue running strong this weekend. His average career finish at Dover is 10.3.

4. Kyle Busch - Let’s hope “Rowdy” and Kevin Harvick can stay away from each other this week–especially if you have Kyle on your fantasy roster. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, with six top five finishes (and four outside of the top twenty) in his twelve starts at “The Monster Mile”, but I think he will “hit” this weekend. Busch has two wins at this track, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to get around this place.

5. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has hit rough patch recently, with a best finish of 21st since his win at Texas, but I think he will “reverse the curse” this weekend in Dover. He finished 18th here last fall (he cut a tire while running near the top ten), but before that he had a streak of five straight top five finishes at “The Monster Mile”. Kenseth won here in 2006 and has averaged a finish of around 13th in his 24 starts here.

6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is finally getting his season turned around, getting two of his three top 10s in his past two starts. At Dover, Denny hasn’t been great, but he recorded top 10s in both races last season and I like the little momentum that he is building lately. Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, Hamlin is a bit hit-or-miss here, with half of his starts ending in finishes outside of the top twenty. Proceed with caution if you pick the #11 Toyota this weekend.

7. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is on a streak of two top 10s this season, and I think he will easily make it three after this weekend. He’s not as good as his teammate (Ryan Newman) is at Dover, but Tony isn’t terrible. He has three top 10s in his past four starts here and owns a career average finish of 11.8, which includes two wins. It’s never a good idea to go against Steward when he gets a little momentum.

8. Greg Biffle - In the last four races of this season, “The Biff” has three top 10s and a worst finish of just 15th. In the last four races at Dover, Biffle has two top 10s and a worst finish of 19th. He’s won here twice (in 2005 and 2008) and has posted a top ten finish in eight of his last ten starts at “The Monster Mile”. Look for Biffle to make it nine of his last eleven after this weekend.

9. Mark Martin - I think this may prove to be too high of a ranking for Mark Martin, but I just have a hunch about him this week. He’s finished outside of the top 20 just once this season, and I don’t think he will make that twice on Sunday. Martin finished 12th and 15th at Dover last season, but in 2009 he recorded top 10s in both races (including a 2nd-place effort in the fall race). Make sure you check out what I have to say in my Predictions article before locking him into your roster this weekend.

10. Jeff Burton - Each week I have said that Burton won’t get his first top ten of the season…but I think this is the week! He finished 2nd in both Dover races during the 2010 season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th since 2004. Burton won here in 2006, and while I don’t think he will get his second win at this track this weekend, I do believe that a top ten is likely.

11. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has just one top ten in his past six races this season, but he could grab another this season. I have him ranked lower than some others will, though, simply because of how bad he has been running recently. It’s like a weekly comedy routine reading all of his comments during the race on Twitter. The elder Busch brother has three top 5s in his past four starts at Dover, but he’s never won here. Will he finally turn things around this weekend?

12. Kevin Harvick - It’s hard to believe that “Happy” isn’t the first Richard Childress Racing car ranked this week, but he’s not that stellar at Dover. He finished 7th here last spring, but that has been just one of his two top 10s here in the last nine races. Harvick hasn’t finished worst than 17th in his last five starts at Dover, though, and I don’t think streak will end this weekend.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex actually didn’t have a huge problem last week! He got his second top ten of the season in Darlington, but do you think he can make it two in a row? It’s possible–he at Dover in 2007–but I don’t think he will. Truex has just one top 20 in his past four starts at this track, and that was a 12th last season. His career average finish here is 16.8.

14. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has finished 8th at “The Monster Mile” three times in his career, but he’s more likely to finish around 14th. His past five races here have ended with finishes of: 25th, 17th, 15th, and 11th. With Clint’s five-race top ten streak coming to an end last week (although it shouldn’t have), he should come out to prove that he can rebound, though, so this ranking may prove to be too low. Only time will tell.

15. Jeff Gordon - If you think Gordon is running up to potential this season, you are wrong. I know he won at Phoenix, but he’s usually not getting the finishes he deserves at his good tracks. This is why I have Jeff ranked so low this week. He finished 11th in both Dover races last season, and while he has finished outside of the top twelve just once in his past ten starts here, I think Gordon will have a hard time cracking the top ten this week. A top fifteen will be more likely for the #24 Chevrolet.

Underdogs Entering The FedEx 400:

Paul Menard - Now that Menard has fallen back down to earth, he’s back as an underdog. Like most tracks, he has been consistently average at Dover–with 71% of his finishes between 19th and 22nd–but he finished 7th here last fall after starting 9th. I don’t think he will grab another top ten, but a top fifteen is within reach.

David Reutimann - Reutty won the pole here in 2009 and recorded his first top five at this track in last season’s spring race. I don’t think he will get his first top ten of the season this weekend unless he gambles at the end, though.

David Ragan - Ragan was a little disappointing for me last week, but I still like how he is running this season. His best finish at Dover has been only 14th, but he’s been consistent here (his last four finishes have been 24th, 26th, 24th, 24th). It seems like the weeks you don’t expect the #6 to be strong are the ones that he is, so this may be the week.

A.J. Allmendinger - I seriously think The ‘Dinger could crack the top ten in points after this weekend. He has the seventh-best average driver rating at Dover over the past four races and has finishes of 29th, 7th, 14th, and 10th here since joining Richard Petty Motorsports. If he has a strong car like he has many times this season, expect Allmendinger to challenge for a top fifteen (and possibly a top ten).

Those To Avoid Entering The FedEx 400:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has just been top-ten good this season, or absolutely terrible, and this isn’t the week to take a chance with him on your fantasy roster. He has one top ten at Dover in twelve career starts, and that came back in 2005.

Marcos Ambrose - I typically like Marcos on tracks that are one-mile or less, but this week is the exception. His average finish at Dover is right around 24th and his best came in 2009 when he finished 14th. There are much better options this week than Ambrose.

Juan Montoya - Montoya has hit a cold spell this season, with a best finish of 23rd in the past three races, and although he finished 4th at Dover in 2009, that is his only top five at this track (and just his second top ten). If he qualifies in the top five, he could score a good run, but he’s a little too risky for me this weekend. I would avoid the #42.

Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to lie, last week’s top five finish by BK was a complete fluke. The only reason he got that 3rd-place was because he stayed out during the final pit stop. At Dover, he has made two starts, with 18th and 22nd-place runs to show for it. His driver ratings during those races, though, suggest to me that he lucked into those as well.

I will be back to posting my weekly Practice Breakdown and Post-Qualifying Predictions over on ifantasyrace.com, so be sure to check those out. The Sprint Cup All-Star weekend happens after Dover, so that will be an off-week for my Preview article. After that, though, it will return when the boys head to Charlotte for some Sunday night racing on May 29th.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Race of the Year

I think NASCAR fans forgot how good the 2008 Daytona 500 was.

We live blogged the race at the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog - and had a blast - and the whole thing went incredibly fast.

There was drama - Jeff Gordon went out early, the Toyotas were in the mix right to the last lap in their first Sprint Cup race and Ryan Newman took the checkered flag for Roger Penske.

It was a long time ago. But a worthy OPeR winner.

It’s A Dry Heat–Edwards Closing In

Phoenix International Raceway was carved out of the foothills of the Estrella Mountains in 1964.

it was intended for open wheel racing.  Mario Andretti, A.J. IFoyt, Parnelli Jones and the Unsers soon came to love the one mile paved oval with the dogleg on the backstretch.  Phoenix’s tourism industry was just starting to grow and its Western-style hospitality was second to none.

It wasn’t until 1988, however, when NASCAR Sprint Cup Series racing came to PIR, that auto racing in Phoenix really became a major sporting attraction for the “Valley of the Sun.” New racing legends and legends-in-the-making like Davey Allison, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace and the rest of the NASCAR Sprint Cup stars found out firsthand what their open-wheel brethren had known for years: Phoenix International Raceway is truly a great place for racing, for drivers and fans alike.

Today, Phoenix  has a tradition that is unmatched in the world of racing. Armed with a rich history of many forms of racing, PIR now counts its two NASCAR weekends as hallmark events.  The annual fall weekend — now in its 21st year and includes races in all three major series and USAC — is one of the biggest events in the entire state.  A second date was added in 2005; giving teams a second spring visit to the desert.

This unique one mile track sports 11 degrees of banking in turns 1-2and 9 degrees in turns 3-4; while it’s
frontstretch has 3 degrees and 9 degrees on backstretch.

Ryan Newman holds the track qualifying record in his No. 12 Alltel Dodge at 26.499 seconds, or 135.854 mph, set in November of 2004.

Race winners seem to be able to double up on there wins.  Five times drivers have won twice in succession, but no one has ever won three in a row.  Davey Allison started the trend in 1991-92, followed by Jeff Burton in 2000-01and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 2003-04,  Kevin Harvick won both races in 2006 and Jimmy Johnson has won the last two and has the ability to be the first to do a triple.

If he can pull off the triple at Phoenix; it may power him to his triple championship as well.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Owes its Life to Two Fallen Heros

What do Texas Motor Speedway, North Wilksboro Speedway and North Carolina Speedway at Rockingham all have in common?

The former uses the Sprint Cup dates originally owned by the latter two.  Bruton Smith, who’s Speedway Motorsports Inc., owns Texas, acquired The Rock and North Wilkboro for the sole purpose of stealing their race dates to redistribute them to Texas.  The racing at the 1.5 mile quad-oval has been good and fast.  The title of fastest un-restricted track has bounced between Texas and its clone Atlanta.

Since the race track opened to the Cup Series in 1997, there have only been two repeat winners.  The #99 has won this race three times; twice with Carl Edwards behind the wheel and once; the inaugural event, driven by Jeff Burton.  Burton then won again in the Richard Childress Racing #31 in the Spring of 2007.

Brian Vickers holds the qualifying track record at 196.235mph set at the Dickies 500 in 2006.  Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman each have two poles and Tony Stewart has led more laps than anyone with 453.

Texas Motor Speedway’s construction began in 1995. The original configuration called for an unusual dual banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and 8 degrees for open-wheel cars.  In 1998, Turn 4 was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straight.  That April, a second renovation started and was completed in less than two months. The project eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Atlanta is the True SuperSpeedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway may not be the biggest track on the Cup circuit but it consistantly is the fastest.

The speedway located twenty miles south of Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval track with a seating capacity of over 125,000. It opened in 1960 as a 1.5 mile standard oval. In 1994, 46 condominiums wwere built over the northeastern side of the track.  In 1997 the entire track was completely rebuilt with the frontstrech and backstretch being swapped.  The configuration of the track was changed from a symmetrical oval to quad-oval with five degrees of banking on the straights and 24 degrees in the turns; making the track the fastest on the NASCAR  circuit.

Geoffrey Bodine holds the qualifying record at 197.478 mph in 1997.  Dale Earnhardt holds the record for most wins (9) and most top 5 finishes (26).  Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman are tied for most poles won at seven.  Richard Petty logs in with the most starts at Atlanta with 65.

The early years at Atlanta were wrought with financial strife and less than adaquite ammenities.  The purchase by Bruton Smith’s Speedway Motorsports ended those problems as constant upgrades have improved the facility to a position of one of NASCAR’s premier venues.

Five of the last eight races have been won by Chase contenders Jimmy Johnson and Carl Edwards.  Look for them to be strong on Sunday.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

It’s a Biffle Bash

Wow. Who would have predicted anything close to what has transpired thus far in the 2008 Chase? Pipe down Marc, no you didn’t.

• David Ragan: 18th, 1 lap down
• Ryan Newman: Worked up to 13th. Too bad this isn’t Horseshoes.
• David Reutimann: Had it, then a late pit error cost him a Top-10. After the penalty, he fought back to 17th. The first car 1 lap down.
• Brian Vickers: Never a factor, finished 31st.

How about Mikey? Nice run there, fella. Were you mad at something? Try it again sometime, and you’ll beat that speed limit.

Speaking of the 31st, that’s Halloween you know. Anyone know where the best NASCAR Halloween Party is going to be? Keep an eye out as we clear the dust off of Thunder Lounge, and prep to throw a Texas sized party in the infield.

So we’re darn sure in Kansas now, Toto. All bets are off for this one.

Historically speaking, Kansas has been a track that has been kind to those not in the Chase. Even as recent as last year, Mr. “Last Two” here took home the victory in nothing less that what is still considered a fiasco of a race. Remember all the smoke about Stewart missing the Chase? He won here then, too.

Can the streak of Chaser victories end at 2?

He’s bit me twice, but finished 6th at the same track back in July. Well, OK, it’s different in name, but what’s the difference between a chocolate chip cookie and a double chocolate chip cookie? They’re both chocolate chip cookies. Brian Vickers stands a chance to take some points.

Is that “Kid” Martin racing this week? That sneeky ol’ cat can hang it out on such tracks as well.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Beak is coming. And he stands a fair chance of doing very well here.

If you’re looking at outside sneaking in, Ryan Newman or Elliott Sadler could pull a fast one and mix it up with the Top-10 as well.

Thus far, with 20% of the big enchilada gone by, it’s all Chasers, all the time. How about that Roush Sandwich that was made out of Jimmie Johnson, right before Jack Roush swept the Top 3 at Dover last weekend? Sandwich downed, how about those three Roushketeers mixing it up and battling for the win? This car has it’s moments, hopefully more to come.

What we have seen thus far this season, is the same thing we’ve seen most of the season leading up to the Chase. The guys in the Chase are the ones consistently running up front. Getting the Top-5’s and 10’s, and bagging the wins. But that wasn’t always the case, and with 31 other cars on the track, it’s 31 vs. 12, and they’re hungry for that win as well.

Ford and Chevy Wins Evenly Split at Dover

Over the last eleven races, Ford leads in manufacturer wins at Dover.

Dating back through the 2003 season, the Fords out of the Jack Roush stable have won four times.  One win each for Mark Martin (2004), Greg Biffle (2005), Matt Kenseth (2006) and Carl Edwards (2007) would lead one to believe that a win in 2008 must loom on the horizon.  Carl Edward’s season to this point would lead you to believe that he is the most likely to gain a win at the Monster Mile.

However, last week’s win at New Hampshire by Biffle, could make him the favorite to pull off back to back wins.  Biffle’s strong outing came at the amazment of many who never saw his strong performance as possible.

Over the same four and a half year period both Dodge and Chevrolet account for three wins each.  Martin Truex Jr. was the most recent winner at Dover in a Chevy for Dale Earnhardt Inc., doing so in the Spring of 2007.  Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton took home the victory in the Fall of 2006 and Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmy Johnson was the winner in the Fall of 2005.

Ryan Newman holds all the wins for Dodge; sweeping the races there in 2003 and getting a third win at the fall race in 2004.  The Penske Dodges were strong early in this six year sampling, but have shown nothing of late.

Looking further back into the manufacturers history at Dover, Ford and Chevrolet have won 21 and 27 times respectively.  If you add in seven Mercury wins for Ford Motor Company, the two manufacturers are on an even standing.  Several years in the early seventies Ford only raced under the Mercury banner, so its not too far fetched to combine the two makes.  Whereas General Motors has run cars under several banners for most of their racing careers.

Pontiac has accounted for six wins,  Oldsmobile two and Buick brought home three in addition to the twenty-seven for Chevrolet.  Add four Richard petty wins in Plymouths and Dodges from the early seventies to the three Newman wins and you can see that Mopars haven’t been much of a factor in the history of The Monster Mile.

This years saw the first victory for Toyota at Dover with non other than Kyle Busch behind the wheel.  While Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chasers of Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could be a factor on Sunday, look for Jimmy Johnson’s Chevy or Carl Edwards’ Ford to come home first.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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