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It’s A Dry Heat–Edwards Closing In

Phoenix International Raceway was carved out of the foothills of the Estrella Mountains in 1964.

it was intended for open wheel racing.  Mario Andretti, A.J. IFoyt, Parnelli Jones and the Unsers soon came to love the one mile paved oval with the dogleg on the backstretch.  Phoenix’s tourism industry was just starting to grow and its Western-style hospitality was second to none.

It wasn’t until 1988, however, when NASCAR Sprint Cup Series racing came to PIR, that auto racing in Phoenix really became a major sporting attraction for the “Valley of the Sun.” New racing legends and legends-in-the-making like Davey Allison, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace and the rest of the NASCAR Sprint Cup stars found out firsthand what their open-wheel brethren had known for years: Phoenix International Raceway is truly a great place for racing, for drivers and fans alike.

Today, Phoenix  has a tradition that is unmatched in the world of racing. Armed with a rich history of many forms of racing, PIR now counts its two NASCAR weekends as hallmark events.  The annual fall weekend — now in its 21st year and includes races in all three major series and USAC — is one of the biggest events in the entire state.  A second date was added in 2005; giving teams a second spring visit to the desert.

This unique one mile track sports 11 degrees of banking in turns 1-2and 9 degrees in turns 3-4; while it’s
frontstretch has 3 degrees and 9 degrees on backstretch.

Ryan Newman holds the track qualifying record in his No. 12 Alltel Dodge at 26.499 seconds, or 135.854 mph, set in November of 2004.

Race winners seem to be able to double up on there wins.  Five times drivers have won twice in succession, but no one has ever won three in a row.  Davey Allison started the trend in 1991-92, followed by Jeff Burton in 2000-01and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 2003-04,  Kevin Harvick won both races in 2006 and Jimmy Johnson has won the last two and has the ability to be the first to do a triple.

If he can pull off the triple at Phoenix; it may power him to his triple championship as well.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Owes its Life to Two Fallen Heros

What do Texas Motor Speedway, North Wilksboro Speedway and North Carolina Speedway at Rockingham all have in common?

The former uses the Sprint Cup dates originally owned by the latter two.  Bruton Smith, who’s Speedway Motorsports Inc., owns Texas, acquired The Rock and North Wilkboro for the sole purpose of stealing their race dates to redistribute them to Texas.  The racing at the 1.5 mile quad-oval has been good and fast.  The title of fastest un-restricted track has bounced between Texas and its clone Atlanta.

Since the race track opened to the Cup Series in 1997, there have only been two repeat winners.  The #99 has won this race three times; twice with Carl Edwards behind the wheel and once; the inaugural event, driven by Jeff Burton.  Burton then won again in the Richard Childress Racing #31 in the Spring of 2007.

Brian Vickers holds the qualifying track record at 196.235mph set at the Dickies 500 in 2006.  Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman each have two poles and Tony Stewart has led more laps than anyone with 453.

Texas Motor Speedway’s construction began in 1995. The original configuration called for an unusual dual banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and 8 degrees for open-wheel cars.  In 1998, Turn 4 was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straight.  That April, a second renovation started and was completed in less than two months. The project eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Atlanta is the True SuperSpeedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway may not be the biggest track on the Cup circuit but it consistantly is the fastest.

The speedway located twenty miles south of Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval track with a seating capacity of over 125,000. It opened in 1960 as a 1.5 mile standard oval. In 1994, 46 condominiums wwere built over the northeastern side of the track.  In 1997 the entire track was completely rebuilt with the frontstrech and backstretch being swapped.  The configuration of the track was changed from a symmetrical oval to quad-oval with five degrees of banking on the straights and 24 degrees in the turns; making the track the fastest on the NASCAR  circuit.

Geoffrey Bodine holds the qualifying record at 197.478 mph in 1997.  Dale Earnhardt holds the record for most wins (9) and most top 5 finishes (26).  Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman are tied for most poles won at seven.  Richard Petty logs in with the most starts at Atlanta with 65.

The early years at Atlanta were wrought with financial strife and less than adaquite ammenities.  The purchase by Bruton Smith’s Speedway Motorsports ended those problems as constant upgrades have improved the facility to a position of one of NASCAR’s premier venues.

Five of the last eight races have been won by Chase contenders Jimmy Johnson and Carl Edwards.  Look for them to be strong on Sunday.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

It’s a Biffle Bash

Wow. Who would have predicted anything close to what has transpired thus far in the 2008 Chase? Pipe down Marc, no you didn’t.

• David Ragan: 18th, 1 lap down
• Ryan Newman: Worked up to 13th. Too bad this isn’t Horseshoes.
• David Reutimann: Had it, then a late pit error cost him a Top-10. After the penalty, he fought back to 17th. The first car 1 lap down.
• Brian Vickers: Never a factor, finished 31st.

How about Mikey? Nice run there, fella. Were you mad at something? Try it again sometime, and you’ll beat that speed limit.

Speaking of the 31st, that’s Halloween you know. Anyone know where the best NASCAR Halloween Party is going to be? Keep an eye out as we clear the dust off of Thunder Lounge, and prep to throw a Texas sized party in the infield.

So we’re darn sure in Kansas now, Toto. All bets are off for this one.

Historically speaking, Kansas has been a track that has been kind to those not in the Chase. Even as recent as last year, Mr. “Last Two” here took home the victory in nothing less that what is still considered a fiasco of a race. Remember all the smoke about Stewart missing the Chase? He won here then, too.

Can the streak of Chaser victories end at 2?

He’s bit me twice, but finished 6th at the same track back in July. Well, OK, it’s different in name, but what’s the difference between a chocolate chip cookie and a double chocolate chip cookie? They’re both chocolate chip cookies. Brian Vickers stands a chance to take some points.

Is that “Kid” Martin racing this week? That sneeky ol’ cat can hang it out on such tracks as well.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Beak is coming. And he stands a fair chance of doing very well here.

If you’re looking at outside sneaking in, Ryan Newman or Elliott Sadler could pull a fast one and mix it up with the Top-10 as well.

Thus far, with 20% of the big enchilada gone by, it’s all Chasers, all the time. How about that Roush Sandwich that was made out of Jimmie Johnson, right before Jack Roush swept the Top 3 at Dover last weekend? Sandwich downed, how about those three Roushketeers mixing it up and battling for the win? This car has it’s moments, hopefully more to come.

What we have seen thus far this season, is the same thing we’ve seen most of the season leading up to the Chase. The guys in the Chase are the ones consistently running up front. Getting the Top-5’s and 10’s, and bagging the wins. But that wasn’t always the case, and with 31 other cars on the track, it’s 31 vs. 12, and they’re hungry for that win as well.

Ford and Chevy Wins Evenly Split at Dover

Over the last eleven races, Ford leads in manufacturer wins at Dover.

Dating back through the 2003 season, the Fords out of the Jack Roush stable have won four times.  One win each for Mark Martin (2004), Greg Biffle (2005), Matt Kenseth (2006) and Carl Edwards (2007) would lead one to believe that a win in 2008 must loom on the horizon.  Carl Edward’s season to this point would lead you to believe that he is the most likely to gain a win at the Monster Mile.

However, last week’s win at New Hampshire by Biffle, could make him the favorite to pull off back to back wins.  Biffle’s strong outing came at the amazment of many who never saw his strong performance as possible.

Over the same four and a half year period both Dodge and Chevrolet account for three wins each.  Martin Truex Jr. was the most recent winner at Dover in a Chevy for Dale Earnhardt Inc., doing so in the Spring of 2007.  Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton took home the victory in the Fall of 2006 and Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmy Johnson was the winner in the Fall of 2005.

Ryan Newman holds all the wins for Dodge; sweeping the races there in 2003 and getting a third win at the fall race in 2004.  The Penske Dodges were strong early in this six year sampling, but have shown nothing of late.

Looking further back into the manufacturers history at Dover, Ford and Chevrolet have won 21 and 27 times respectively.  If you add in seven Mercury wins for Ford Motor Company, the two manufacturers are on an even standing.  Several years in the early seventies Ford only raced under the Mercury banner, so its not too far fetched to combine the two makes.  Whereas General Motors has run cars under several banners for most of their racing careers.

Pontiac has accounted for six wins,  Oldsmobile two and Buick brought home three in addition to the twenty-seven for Chevrolet.  Add four Richard petty wins in Plymouths and Dodges from the early seventies to the three Newman wins and you can see that Mopars haven’t been much of a factor in the history of The Monster Mile.

This years saw the first victory for Toyota at Dover with non other than Kyle Busch behind the wheel.  While Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chasers of Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could be a factor on Sunday, look for Jimmy Johnson’s Chevy or Carl Edwards’ Ford to come home first.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chasers are 1 for 1: Let the nightmares of Monsters begin

A congrats are in order for Greg Biffle, for taking the first Chase win for 2008.

Getting down to business, let’s get a quick summary of who crashed the Chase party at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and review last weeks “predictions“.

• Prediction 1: Martin Truex Jr.
  Finishing in a respectable 7th place. Luke: 1 for 1;
• Prediction 2: Brian Vickers
  Finishing a dismal 35th, thanks to getting the ol’ T-Bone from David Gilliland. Luke: 1 for 2;
• Prediction 3: David Reutimann
  Finishing decent in 15th, there were 28 other competitors who would have loved to trade spots. Not too shabby, Beak. Keep on keepin’ on. Luke: 1 for 3; (Half credit? Almost count?)

Now on to this weeks job. Taming the Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway.

Our first spoiler lead off last week as well. Now we’re to the home track of Martin Truex Jr., and he would love to take those checkers here at Dover. If you had to place a wager on tracks this team goes the extra mile for, this is certainly one of them. Finishing a strong 6th here in June, look for that to remain the case as he takes a Top10 from a Chaser.

David Ragan is looking for a bit of redemption after finishing 28th last week. David had a Top-15 here in June, and certainly has the capability for improvement by sneaking into the Top-10.

Ryan Newman needs a finish. Is he too distracted thinking of greener pastures? Perhaps, but it’s about time he had something solid. No stranger to the challenge of the Monster Mile.

There are several other possibilities for taking valuable Top-10 points from a Chaser. David Reutimann, or even Brian Vickers, but then again they have that potential just about any given week as of late. Potential doesn’t mean Top-10, however, as we find out week in and week out.

Dover offers a unique challenge. Steve will tell you it’s the concrete. Some will say it’s the banking. For me, I think the challenge comes from keeping it together for 400 miles while running at high speeds in what could be called Bristol’s big brother.

Those who can keep it focused for the distance will have the highest chances of success here. There’s a lot of time spent in the corners, and the constant battering of G-forces can take their toll. Keep your head in it, remain focused, and breathe when you can and you may just tame that Monster.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chase Round Two: Headin’ to Dover

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One bad race has plenty of Kyle Busch backers jumping off the band wagon.  A broken bolt and a bad attitude made the once invincible looking Busch look anything but.

I wouldn’t count the Shrub out of the Chase yet however.  Then again, maybe I will.  I don’t like the signs of reemerging immaturity from the younger Busch.  He has never been in a Cup championship run before.  His reaction to the handling problems that cost him his chance at a good finish in the first Chase race wasn’t what one would call “grace under fire”. 

Even with the 34th place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle’s year-to-date Loop Driver Rating remains the series’ best at 109.7 and he has third best stats for the coming race at Dover International Raceway.  Average the two and he still tops the sheet - 108.3.   Busch has led fully 21 percent of all Sprint Cup Series laps run in 2008.  It’s to soon to say he’s choking.  But it is something to watch.

Does Biffle Carry the Big Mo?

Another driver to keep an eye on is Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle.  Not only did the Biff  win the first Chase race, but he holds top stats for Dover Downs too.  Biffle has Series beating stats in nine of the 16 Loop Data Box Score categories for Dover.  His Ave Position - 6.3 and Finish - 5.4 make sense when you see that he’s run 95.5 percent of the last seven Monster Mile races in the top 15.  His 393 Laps Led are second to Matt Kenseth’s 491.  He leads with 267 Fastest Laps and a Driver Rating of 116.1.

Besides Kyle Busch, only Carl Edwards - 104.5 -  has a higher Average Driver Rating for Dover and year-to-date  than Biffle 104.3.  Edwards finished third at Loudon behind Biffle and Jimmy Johnson.  Carl has the best Ave Finish for all of 2008 - 9.8, the most Fastest Laps and has run more Laps in the Top 15 than anyone - 77.9 percent  He’s been consistent and looked poised at New Hampshire. 

Winning Championships is Learned Behavior

And so did Jimmy Johnson.  But as the two-time defending Cup Champ,  he has been here before.  It wasn’t easy though.  The winner of the last two Chase’s came into the first two Chase playoff’s as one of the favorites.  He dominated the regular season races in 2004 and 2005 only to fail in the actual Chase itself.  Some things have to be learned.  Johnson did, but others have yet to prove they have. 

Johnson has been so good the last four years that his Loop stats are strong for nearly every track.  But his 2008 season-to-date numbers are third best overall too.  His combine Driver Rating is fourth for Dover at 103.3.  He doesn’t lead any categories but has three wins, four top fives and eight top tens.

A Field Full of Winners

Matt Kenseth, as said, has the second best Driver Rating for Dover and he’s had 11 top tens and six top fives to go with a win.  I just don’t like the team body language out of the No. 17.  They finished 40th at New Hampshire, through no real fault of Kenseth.  But as Matt said after the race, if they ran up front more, they wouldn’t get caught in other folks’ problems as much.  Not a winning combination right now.

Martin Truex Jr and Jeff Gordon are tied for the next best combined DR for Dover.  Truex got his first win here in 2007 and Gordon has four wins on the concrete mile.   Gordon also has five DNFs to go with 14 top fives and 19 top tens.  That no. 24 just hasn’t looked like much of a threat lately.  I’ll have to see something before I can pick Jeffy again.

Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Bucsh and Kenseth all join Gordon, Johnson and Edwards as past winners on the Monster Mile.  Stewart, Gordon and Johnson are the multiple winners.

I wrote about my thoughts on Stewart’s chances here.  Dale Junior is another who seems maybe to be feeling the heat.  He was in mid-meltdown mode Sunday over his radio with crew chief Tony Eury  when team owner Rick Hendrickcame on the line and cooled things down.  Junior’s stats for Dover aren’t eye popping but combined with his good overall 2008 numbers, his DR is a respectable 91.3.  I do think that Earnhardt will win a race or two in the Chase, but it’s going to be hard to predict.  And I won’t pick him here.

Jeff Burton just seems to be tough to pick anywhere.  He’s nearly always good, with terrific consistency.  But Dover is an anomaly for Burton.  The guy who nearly always finishes, has five Dover DNFs.  He has a combined DR of 90.1.

I’m going to go with the stats - and see if there is anything to this momentum stuff - I’ll take Greg Biffle to win.  The darkhorse rider this time is Ryan Newman.  Sixth best Dover DR - 99.7, third best Ave Finish of 8.3 and third most Laps in the Top 15.

If you sign up for DIRECTV you can add NASCAR Hot Pass for the rest of the season for only $29.95 or you can add Hot Pass to your existing Direct TV plan for the same $29.95. Sign up through our affiliate link here and save. For more information about Hot Pass call 877-770-6928.

 Photo credit: Icon Sports Mediia, Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Hosts Start to The Chase

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of the most storied tracks on the Sprint Cup Series.

It has been described as “Martinsville on steroids”; because of its long straights and rather flat turns. Brakes are a big story at New Hampshire.  Those drivers that have brakes at the end of the race will have a decided advantage over drivers that have used them up early on.

Efforts to bring a major racing facility took off in 1989 when ground was broken for New Hampshire International Speedway on a site about 10 miles north of New Hampshire’s capital city, Concord.  The track opened for the first time in June 1990 and hosted its first NASCAR touring series event, the Budweiser 300 for the Busch Series. The Cup Series followed in July 1993, with Rusty Wallace getting the victory.

NHMS is just over one mile in length; officially measured at 1.058 miles with 1 degree of banking on the straights and new progressive banking in the corners that ranges from two to seven degrees.  The ninety-two foot wide turns were reconfigured in 2002 to incorporate the variable banking angle thus making the racetrack more driveable. Drivers like the sixty-five foot wide staights which lends itself to passing anywhere on the race track.

In 2000, the track was the site of a pair of fatal accidents which took the lives of two young drivers.  In May, while practicing for a Busch Series race, Adam Petty’s throttle stuck exiting turn two. The result was a full speed, head-on crash in turns three and four.  When the Winston Cup Series made their Spring appearance, a similar accident occurred to 1998 Rookie of the Year Kenny Irwin, Jr.

NASCAR with track owner, Bill Baird, decided to run restrictor plates on the cars during the Fall race, making it the first track outside of Daytona and Talladega to use them.  Jeff  Burton led flag to flag; resulting in the quick demise of restrictor plate racing at New Hampshire.

Track safety was put front and center starting in 2003, as the track was an early adopter of the SAFER (Steel and Foam Energy Reduction) Barrier technology; outfitting its turns with the soft walls. In 2005 a new infield care center was built, followed in 2006 by a new heliport.

In 2004, the track hosted the first race in the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup. As it turned out, that race played a big role in how the battle for the championship played out. Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman and Jeremy Mayfield were involved in a wreck that stymied their championship hopes, while Kurt Busch, who had won the July race, completed a season’s sweep that started him toward the 2004 Nextel Cup championship.

NHMS not only hosts the first race in The Chase for the Sprint Cup; but it is also the first race in the ten races leading up to The Chase, known as the “Race to The Chase.”

Speedway Motorsports Inc. owner, Bruton Smith, announced on November 2, 2007 that his company had purchased the speedway from the Baird family for $340 million dollars cash and the track would be renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Ryan Newman holds the current track qualifying record of 28.561 sec. (133.357 mph) set September 12, 2003, while Jeff Burton set the race record in July of 1997 with an average speed of 117.134 mph.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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