Roush Fenway Fords Enjoy November Sun in Homestead

November 10, 2008

While only winning the championship in 2004, the Roush Fenway Fords are dominant at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Greg Biffle won this race three years running and Matt Kenseth capped off the season one year ago with a win. To add to the fun for the Cat in the Hat, Carl Edwards has a very good record here and David Ragan has a top 10 in his first start here last year. For Roush, those are good odds.

The championship is obviously the big story at Homestead, but every year the margin of victory is getting larger. From the incredible drama of Kurt Busch’s 2004 season to Tony Stewart’s and Jimmie Johnson’s solid if unspectacular runs in the years following, the championship chase is still must-watch television and the redesigned Homestead track deserves a lot of the credit. This year almost certainly promises to see Johnson do what only Cale Yarborough has done in NASCAR’s top series unless something freakish happens to the normally unflappable #48 team.

Paging David Gilliland, remember where your engines come from… anyway, lets get a look at the numbers.

The winners:
2007 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Greg Biffle
2005 – Greg Biffle
2004 – Greg Biffle

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 7th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 9th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 15th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

Let’s see, let me find a Roush Fenway driver that has had the best season this and won on similar 1.5 mile tracks… oh yeah, if you’re not anticipating Carl Edwards leading nearly every lap and winning this thing Sunday night, I’ll take whatever odds there are for the race. Aside from Edwards, Biffle does have a track record of winning here and could easily do it again.

The two sleepers I’ve pegged for this race are Ragan and Jamie McMurray. Both drivers have performed admirably in the final stretch of the year. The season finale always produces surprises, it should be interesting to see what happens this year. Among the one-off entrants are Brad Keselowski and Mark Martin, and the end of A.J. Allmendinger’s run in the #10.

Finally, it’s been a pleasure to write this weekly column for On Pit Row. I want to thank Steve and Charlie for all of their hard work and I look forward to continuing my contributions to the Bench Racing blog. Journey provides the season finale with the classic karaoke song Don’t Stop Believin’. YouTube is your friend. This won’t be like the Sopranos finale when the music just stops before the

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Written by Matt Mercer · Filed Under Bench Racing blog, Fantasy NASCAR, Ford Racing, Gillett-Evernham Motorsports, Homestead-Miami Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, On Pit Row | 5 Comments

Atlanta Motor Speedway: Only the Top Teams Need Apply

October 22, 2008

G’wan home you guys. That’s what the stats are saying to all but the members of NASCAR’s 2008 royalty. That being the cars and drivers of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress. All others are mear pretenders to the Sprint Cup throne, at least for this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The top ten Loop Driver Ratings all belong to members of those four teams. DEI pilots, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr come in 11th and 12th with the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch right behind them. But the talent of the big four teams looks too tuned-in to AMS to be upset by those guys. It would be a huge surprise.

General Johnson’s March Through Georgia

Once again, Jimmy Johnson holds most of the Loop cards. There are 16 categories that make up the Loop Data Box Score. Jimmy has the top stat in 11 of those columns for Atlanta. Significantly Johnson holds the edge in Ave Position and Finish - 6.6 and 5.9. He has led more laps - 326 for 14.3 percent - and run the most Laps in the Top 15 - 2142 for 94.0 percent. His number one Driver Rating is 113.4. J J has the top season-to-date Driver Rating too, at 107.2.

The next four guys in the Atlanta Loop all have Driver Ratings of 102.3 or better. So Johnson won’t have the track to himself Sunday. Both Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr are past winners at AMS and have the second and third DRs - 104.4 and 103.6. Stewart has led 318 laps - 14.0 percent and just behind Johnson. Junior is right there with 299 laps led. Ave Finishes of 9.4 for Smoke and 10.9 for Junior are significantly behind Johnson.

The Challenge of the Roushketeers

The two Roush-Fenway drivers who most closely chase Jimmy Johnson in the Chase are Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards year-to-date Driver Rating is second only to Johnson at 105.4. His AMS rating is fourth at 102.8 and he has 2nd best 197 Fastest Laps Run. Carl is a two-time winner at Atlanta and is typically Roush strong on the fast mile-and-a-half tracks.

Greg Biffle has the fifth best DR - 102.3 - second best Ave Running Position and Laps in the Top 15 percentage - 9.8 and 83.4 percent - and series high 211 Fastest Laps Run. But Biffle is win-less at AMS as are Chasers Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth (Driver Ratings - 92.8 and 94.1). But all three drivers are very capable on intermediate tracks.

Jeff Gordon has only four races left in which to claim his first win of 2008. Gordon has an amazing string of 14 straight years with at least two wins. Time is running out but Atlanta could get him started on an end of season run. He has four wins at AMS, is the sixth rated driver in the Loop Stats.

Twenty One Anyone?

Kyle Busch has twenty NASCAR major wins in 2008. It’s been awhile since he scored in the Cup Series, though he still has the third season-to-date Driver Rating at 104.2. Kyle was the winner the last time we went to Atlanta and AMS has produced plenty of sweeps over the years. Carl Edwards was the last to pull it off. But Kyle’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, claimed that the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars have an advantage on what Joe Gibbs Racing is fielding right now. I believe him.

The pick, this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jimmy Johnson can’t win them all, can he? - with a dark-horse shout out to DEI’s Regan Smith.

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Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Atlanta Motor Speedway, Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment

No Way No How No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire

September 8, 2008

NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set. The pressure to get in the top twelve has passed. If you’re in, the question is, can you win it all.

And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races. Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?

“That’s one of worst races I probably could have drove, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing. I’m glad we’re in in a way, but in another way with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.”

That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years. Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I. More from Matt…

“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville. Our short track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason. We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger track stuff seems to be running OK.”

I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt. This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.

“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around – the teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can and that’s what they’ve done and it made an unbelievable difference.”

Did Reiser take away from the no. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edward’s no. 99 and Biffle’s no. 16? Maybe and maybe not. But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win. He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week. The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer. Check it out and sign up to play.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different. Martinsville on steroids is a popular description. And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers. David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon. His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts. As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.

Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower. Juan Pablo Montoya - on a track that I think favors him - comes in at 63.4 in three races.

But what about the other contenders? Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon. Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier - 83.1. Gordon’s Ave Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0.

But the chemistry of Carl Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne- perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch - makes me think that this race will produce a better result. If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond? I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.

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Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008 | 1 Comment