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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon 2 - Sylvania 300

On Sunday afternoon–for the second and final time this season–the Sprint Cup Series will visit New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Sylvania 300, the second race in the 2011 Chase. After last week’s wild ending in Chicago, the points standings may get shaken up once again on Sunday at “The Magic Mile,” as you never know what’s going to happen on the small race tracks, where racing is tight all around. A fuel mileage race could happen once again as well, as we saw last fall when NASCAR’s most recent winner ran out of fuel on the last lap of this event in 2010.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Ryan Newman started on the pole, led 125 of the 301 laps, and went to victory lane with teammate Tony Stewart following him to the stripe. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top 5. Newman is the only driver in the series to post top 10 finishes in both races at New Hampshire in 2009 as well as the first race here this season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Sylvania 300:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother had the best car last week but came home 6th, and this week the Cup series is visiting one of his better tracks, and the site of three of Kurt’s twenty-three career wins. Over the last five races at Loudon, no driver has a better average driver rating or a better average finish than Kurt Busch. Since his win here in June of 2008, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 13th and hasn’t had a driver rating under 91.7. In the flat track races this season, Busch has started in the top 5 in all five of them and has just one finish outside of the top 10.

2. Jeff Gordon - No one has really been as dominant on the flat tracks this season as Jeff Gordon. He won at Phoenix in February, won at Pocono in June, and finished 2nd at Indianapolis in July. At the series’ first stop at Loudon this season, Gordon finished 11th after starting 7th, and at the last flat track race (Pocono in August), he finished 6th despite starting deep in the pack (31st). At “The Magic Mile,” Jeff owns an average finish of 11th and three victories. In thirty-three starts he has just six finishes outside of the top 20, and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since 2005. Expect this #24 team to rebound after that weak showing in Chicago on Monday.

3. Jimmie Johnson - In the last 19 flat track races, “Five Time” owns fifteen top 10 finishes and three wins. Of those fifteen top 10s, twelve were also top 5s. At New Hampshire, Johnson has visited victory lane three times in nineteen career starts and owns an average finish of 9.6. Recently, Jimmie has posted three top 5s in the last four races at Loudon and has just one finish outside of the top 10 here since 2006. He has the third-best average driver rating of the past five races here and has finished in the top 5 in all but one of the flat track races during this 2011 season.

4. Ryan Newman - With The Rocketman’s 8th-place finish at Chicagoland, he now has five top 10 finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races and a worst finish of 20th. I personally do not think that he has a chance of winning this year’s chase, but with a win at Loudon on Sunday, Newman could turn me–and probably some others–into a believer. He is the most recent winner at this race track and you have to consider Ryan one of the best flat track racers in the series: in the five events on them this season, he has a win, three top 5s, and a worst finish of 12th. At New Hampshire specifically, Newman owns three visits to victory lane and thirteen top 10s in nineteen starts. He hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the last four races here and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.

5. Tony Stewart - After last week’s surprising (to me anyway) victory in Chicago, look for “Smoke” to have another good result in New Hampshire this weekend. Stewart has made twenty-five career starts at “The Magic Mile” and has found himself in victory lane twice. His average finish here is 12th and Tony has the second-best average driver rating at this track over the last five races. He’s finished 2nd in two of the last three races at Loudon and in the other race–where he finished 24th–Stewart was leading on the last lap but ran out of fuel. He has started in the top 5 in four of the last five races at New Hampshire and “Smoke” has finished 11th or better in four of the five flat track races this season. If he wants to make a serious run at the championship this season, Tony Stewart will need a good run this weekend, and I think it will happen.

6. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had engine woes here in July, but before that Kyle Busch ran off four consecutive top 11 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This is nowhere near his best track on the circuit (his average finish is 16.3 at Loudon) but Busch won here in 2006 and has been great on the flat tracks this season–excluding the first visit to this track–with top 3 finishes at Pocono twice as well as Phoenix in February. This team has stumbled recently (one top 10 in the last four Sprint Cup races) so make sure the #18 Toyota looks good in practice before committing to Kyle Busch on Sunday.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has had his fair share of struggles at New Hampshire but his average finish of 14.2 here isn’t too shabby (and actually ranks him 9th of all active drivers). He won from the pole here in 2006 and before his stumble here in July, Harvick had back-to-back top 5 finishes at this race track. As usual, don’t expect a good qualifying effort from the 29 team (just one start better than 18th in the last five races here) but a good finish should be expected. This year at the flat tracks, Harvick has recorded top 5s at Phoenix and Pocono and an 11th at Indianapolis.

8. Carl Edwards - He has just two top 10s in fourteen career starts at Loudon, but if Cousin Carl is going to make a legitimate run at the championship–which I think he will do–he will have to turn his luck around at this race track. He’s not terrible here, as shown with his 14.4 average finish, but he will need a run on Sunday similar to his efforts here in 2008 and 2006, where Carl finished in the top 5. In his career here, Edwards has just one finish outside of the top 20, so he’s very consistent, but he just needs to run a little better to get a third top 10 at “The Magic Mile.” I think that will happen on Sunday, as the #99 Ford has been pretty fast at the flat tracks this season.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is a very consistent driver (just one finish worse than 16th since early mid-July) but he hasn’t really put up top 10s–instead, Earnhardt usually finishes in the mid-teens. He lucked into a top 5 at Chicago on Monday, but I think the fan favorite will legitimately have a top 10 run this weekend. In the last six Loudon races, Junior has three top 10 finishes and just one finish outside of the top 15. What’s better yet is how good this team has been on the flat tracks in 2011: two top 10s at Pocono, a 10th at Phoenix, and a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. The last time the series visited Loudon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came home in 15th after starting 27th.

10. Denny Hamlin - I know Denny’s history at this track is very impressive–which I will get to in a little bit–but let’s be honest: this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and despite having solid top 10 runs before last week’s disaster in Chicago, they probably should have finished better in those races. Now to Hamlin’s record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In eleven career starts at this track, Denny has a series-best average finish of 7.2 and one win. He has never finished worse than 15th here and Hamlin has completed every single lap ran in the events he has participated at “The Magic Mile.” If he looks great in practice, I’ll rank him a little higher, but as of now Hamlin is just a top 10 driver in my mind. He has just one top 10 finish in the five flat track races this season.

11. Brad Keselowski - He got another top 5 finish at Chicagoland on Monday, but let’s face it: BK was a top 15 car at best and the fuel mileage factor played right into his hand. Going into the race this weekend, I’m ranking Keselowski conservatively at 11th, but I think he has the potential to score a top 10 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Brad’s first ever start here in 2009 left him with a 6th-place showing, and in the last two races here–despite ending in disappointing finishes (18th and 35th)–he has started in the top 5 both times. He’s not great at the flat tracks by any means but Keselowski won at Pocono in August and finished 9th at Indianapolis after starting 5th. If he looks good in practice, expect a solid showing from Brad on Sunday.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer was another beneficiary of the fuel situation in Chicago, as he got a top 10 finish out of it. Clint’s record at New Hampshire isn’t stellar (16.2 average finish in eleven starts) but he does have two victories here and is the defending winner of this race, although that was due to his Tony Stewart’s fuel woes on the last lap. Bowyer hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2008 and owns three top 10s in that span of five races. If he gets a little luck on Sunday, Clint could get a top 10 finish, but I think he will end up right where he has at the flat tracks all season long: in the teens.

13. Mark Martin - Look what we have here: for the first time in the 2011 season, Mark Martin has back-to-back top 10 finishes and the series is coming into one of his best tracks on the circuit. In twenty-nine career starts at Loudon, Mark owns fourteen top 10s and he visited victory lane here in 2009. Of all those starts, Martin only has five finishes outside of the top 20. However, three of those five have came in the last three events here. I don’t think he’ll be that bad this weekend, though. In the five flat track races this season, Martin has three finishes of 13th or better and a worst finish of 22nd. With a little luck, Martin could record his third top 10 in a row on Sunday,

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - It’s a pretty risky pick but if nothing goes wrong for this #56 team, a top 15 should be a lock for Martin Truex, Jr. on Sunday. He finished 8th here in July and in the four races in 2007 and 2008, Martin finished in the top 10 in all of them. This team struggled at Indianapolis with their 24th-place finish, but in the other flat track races in 2011, Truex has been a top 15 car every time. I expect that to happen once again in New Hampshire on Sunday,

15. Greg Biffle - Another risky pick this weekend will be The Biff. It’s almost getting ridiculous how much bad luck this team has run into this season despite having very good race cars. At New Hampshire, Biffle has finished 18th or better in seven of the last eight races and he won here in 2008. The last three events at Loudon have ended with Greg in 16th, 17th, and 18th, and in the flat track races in 2011, this team has come away with four top 20s in five races. I expect the #16 Ford to end up in the mid-teens when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Those To Avoid Entering The Sylvania 300:

Matt Kenseth - The last-lap penalty in Chicago on Monday is really the last thing that Matt Kenseth needed because after the race in New Hampshire this weekend, his championship chances may be all but dead. In fact, Ryan Rantz has already stuck a fork in him (click here to read). Kenseth hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at Loudon since 2007, and hasn’t even really been close since then either–his best driver rating in the last seven races here has been 82.4. Matt finished 20th here in July.

Kasey Kahne - I’ve completely written off both Red Bull Racing drivers for the remainder of the season. Talk to me about Kahne next season when he’s driving for Hendrick. Kasey finished 6th here in July but his overall record at Loudon isn’t very stellar: only one top 5 in fifteen career starts and an average finish of 18th.

Brian Vickers - See what I said above about the Red Bull drivers. The last four races at New Hampshire have ended with Vickers finishing 34th, 11th, 35th, and 35th. He has one top 10 in twelve career starts at “The Magic Mile” and an average finish of 23rd. I’ll pass.

Bobby Labonte - He finished 7th here in July but don’t expect anything close to that this weekend out of Bobby Labonte. His driver rating during that race was just 24th-best, and that’s the finish, and that’s also his average finish at “The Magic Mile” over the last five races here. Expect a mid-20s finish out of Labonte this weekend–as usual.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon - Lenox Industrial Tools 301

This week, the Sprint Cup Series visits New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Parking and traffic shouldn’t dominate the headlines this weekend, as it did before, during, and after the Kentucky race a few days ago (click here to read my story of that race, my first NASCAR experience). Now that my schedule is finally clear for an entire weekend, make sure you check out my Practice Breakdown and Post-Happy Hour Predictions, which can be found at www.ifantasyrace.com. Remember: the Sprint Cup Series takes the weekend after this race off before returning at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the last weekend of July.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Clint Bowyer led a race-high 177 laps en route to his first victory of the 2010 season. He would have nearly all of those points taken away though as NASCAR found the rear of his car to not not be up to specs after the race. Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kevin Harvick all recorded top fives that day. Tony Stewart, as you may remember, was leading with one lap to go but ran out of fuel and finished a disappointing 23rd. “Smoke” led 100 laps that day. In the spring race at New Hampshire, Jimmie Johnson started 10th and led only nine laps but took the checkered flag once it was all said and done. Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick followed him to the line. Harvick, along with Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., posted top ten finishes in both Loudon races last season.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Practice, practice, practice. I preached that average speedswould be a huge determinant in the Loudon race last fall, and you can click here to see if I was right or not. There is one practice session scheduled for Friday afternoon, and those speeds will set the qualifying lineup, which starts later that afternoon. I wouldn’t pay much attention to the first practice session speeds. However, there are two practices set to be ran on Saturday morning/afternoon, and I would watch them very closely to figure out who to pick on Sunday. I will also be referring to Pocono and Phoenix a lot in this preview, as those are the other two flat tracks that have been raced on this season. Be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown on ifantasyrace.com, and my Fantasy Predictions will return this week as well.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

1. Jimmie Johnson - One of the most surprising things to me thus far in the 2011 season is that the #48 team has only one win and that it came at Talladega of all places. I think that this will change in Loudon on Sunday. Johnson has the best driver rating over the past two years at this track and if a wheel wouldn’t have came loose from his Chevy in last year’s fall race, he would probably be coming into this race with an eight-race streak of top 10s at “The Magic Mile”. “Five Time” has visited victory lane here three times and has finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his eighteen career starts at this flat track.

2. Kurt Busch - I don’t know what Penske hit on, but week in and week out both of their cars are fast–and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. Only Johnson has a better driver rating over the last two years at Loudon than the elder Busch brother, and the “Double Deuce” came home 2nd and 8th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively. Kurt has visited victory lane three times at New Hampshire, and you have to believe that he will grab a victory here soon. Will it be this week? I guess we’ll find out. Before Kurt’s 13th-place effort in the last race here, he had a streak of five finishes in the top 6 at this track.

3. Kyle Busch - After last week’s dominating performance at Kentucky Speedway, it’s official: no one is as hot as “Rowdy” Busch is right now–not even his brother. Over the last five Sprint Cup races, Kyle has accumulated 199 total points, five more than Kurt. In the last ten, the younger Busch brother has amassed 367 points. Matt Kenseth is a distant second in that category with 350 points collected. At Loudon, Kyle Busch has one win and eight top 11 finishes in twelve starts. At Pocono, Busch finished 3rd after starting 34th, and at Phoenix he 23 laps before finishing runner-up to Jeff Gordon. This season it’s been boom or bust for Busch, so expect either a top five or a mid-teens finish out of the #18 on Sunday. I’d bet on the former, though.

4. Tony Stewart - Fantasy owners are getting a surprise this summer: “Smoke” hasn’t been a great pick week in and week out. He has had great race cars, though, and eventually this team will put everything together and get the finish they deserve. Over the last four races at this track, Stewart has the third-best average driver rating in the series and two top five finishes, which both came in the summer race. Tony has led at least one lap in the last seven races at New Hampshire, and remember: he was leading the last race here with one lap to go and ran out of fuel (giving him a 24th-place finish). When you take that out of the equation, “Smoke” hasn’t finished worse than 14th at this track since early 2007.

5. Jeff Gordon - This year I haven’t really liked picking Jeff Gordon, but he’s 2-for-2 on flat tracks this year and I think he could contend for the win on Sunday as well. Jeff finished 4th and 6th at New Hampshire last season and three wins and five runner-up finishes in his 32 starts here. In the last eleven races at this track, Gordon hasn’t finished outside of the top 15, which is quite an impressive feat when you think about it. In the last two years, only three drivers have a better average driver rating than Gordon at this track.

6. Denny Hamlin - Statistically, this is Denny’s fourth-best track on the circuit, as his average finish here is 7.6 over ten career starts. That average finish is also the best of anyone in the series. He visited victory lane at New Hampshire in 2007, and in two of the last three races here the #11 has finished runner-up. The one thing that really stands out to me when looking at Hamlin’s stats at this track is that he has completed 100% of the laps ran, which is the reason he has never finished outside of the top 15. I don’t expect that to change this weekend.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” won from the pole here in 2006 and has eleven top 10s in twenty career starts at this track. He crossed the stripe in 5th during both Loudon races last season and has finished in the top 15 in four of the last six Sprint Cup Series visits to the track. Harvick notched top five finishes at both Phoenix and Pocono earlier this year, and I don’t think it would surprise many to see the #29 Chevrolet up around there on Sunday, either.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer isn’t consistently great at New Hampshire, but the most recent race winner here does have two career victories on this track and is on a three-race streak of top 10s here. The #33 got caught up in that wreck at Phoenix and wasn’t very competitive at Pocono, so he may drop in my rankings once Happy Hour is over, but going into the race I look at Bowyer as a pretty solid pick. He has the fifth-highest average driver rating at Loudon over the last four races.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Even though Junior didn’t have a great 2010 season, he did find success at Loudon, notched 8th and 4th-place finishes. He has never visited victory lane at this track, but Dale does have six top 5 finishes in his twenty-three starts at “The Magic Mile”. He finished 10th at Phoenix and came home 6th at Pocono, so you have to believe this team is going to get out of their little dry spell (best finish of 19th in the past four Sprint Cup Series races).

10. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is a very good flat track racer, and he has the fourth-best average finish since 2009 on those type of tracks of anyone in the series. At Loudon, Newman has visited victory lane twice and notched twelve top 10s in eighteen career starts. He is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track and I expect him to make that a four-race streak once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. At Pocono, Newman finished 9th, and at Phoenix he wound up 5th.

11. Carl Edwards - This will be the week that the #99 team has the chance to show that they are championship material. Of the 23 tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit, New Hampshire ranks 16th (in terms of average finish) for Carl Edwards. He has made thirteen starts on this one-mile track but has come away with just two top 10s, which were 2nd and 3rd-place efforts in 2006 and 2008, respectively. However, what is impressive to me is that Cousin Carl has just one finish outside of the top 20 in his career, and that was a 25th-place result in this race last season.

12. Brad Keselowski - As you probably know, I don’t like going against anyone on a hot streak, and over the last ten Sprint Cup races, only nine other drivers have scored more points than Brad Keselowski. He’s not blowing anyone out of the water–although I thought for a while that he was going to win in Kentucky–but he has three straight top 15s coming into the race this weekend. At New Hampshire, BK has an average career finish of 16.7, but he grabbed a 6th-place finish in his first start at “The Magic Mile” and won the pole here last September. At Phoenix, Brad brought the “Blue Deuce” home in 15th.

13. David Reutimann - With an average career finish of 17th, this is Reutimann’s third-best track on the series, and I think his 2nd-place run last weekend will give him momentum for a solid run at Loudon on Sunday. He started and brought the #00 Toyota home in 7th in the most recent race at this track and is on a five-race streak of top 15s here. As I’m sure you have figured out by now, Reutty is very hit-or-miss, so if he doesn’t look very good in practice, expect him to fall in my rankings.

14. A.J. Allmendinger - Right here is my sleeper pick for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Dinger was running in the top five in the last race here before running out of fuel and finishing 12th, and he also brought the #43 Ford home in 9th-place at Phoenix earlier this year. In this race one year ago, A.J. finished 10th. If he starts in the top fifteen and looks decent in practice, you’ll probably find him on at least one of my rosters Sunday.

15. Juan Montoya - The main concern with Montoya this week is whether he is going to get the finish he deserves. He was running great last week in Kentucky but had a pit road speeding penalty and had to settle for a finish outside of the top ten. In the last three Loudon races, JPM has two poles and a 5th-place start, but only one top ten (a 3rd in 2009) to show for it. In those three races he has also led a combined 141 laps. Juan’s average finish here is 19.5 but that should improve after Sunday’s race.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

16. Joey Logano - If you are going to buy into “Sliced Bread” at New Hampshire, take your chances in the summer race. He won the race here in 2009–albeit being rain-shortened–and followed that up with a 9th-place in the summer race last season. In the fall races, though, Logano’s best finish in three starts has been 21st. Joey finished 11th at Pocono and started 6th at Phoenix before he had engine problems. If the #20 Toyota is fast in practice, expect Logano to move up my rankings when I make my post-Happy Hour predictions on Saturday.

17. Jeff Burton - Even this ranking may be a little to high for Burton, but I’m going to go with it. His 19th-place effort in Kentucky last weekend has been the #31 Chevrolet’s best finish since mid-May, but the team has been consistent in that span, with all finishes coming between 19th and 25th. Burton’s last three starts at Loudon have given him finishes of 16th, 12th, and 15th, and he finished 20th at Pocono last June. It’s hard to believe that this team still do not have a top 10 to their credit this season, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend.

18. Matt Kenseth - Please scroll down to the “Avoid” section of my post to read my thoughts on Matt Kenseth this weekend…

19. Kasey Kahne - Kahne started 2nd and led 110 laps in this race last season before an engine issue delegated him to a 36th-place finish. He followed that up with a 14th-place effort in the fall race at Loudon. Kasey’s best finish here is 4th, but that came in 2004, and his best finish in the last nine races at this track has been 10th. The fact that he has completed less than 90% of the laps ran here is enough for me to avoid Kahne this weekend. He finished 12th and 6th at Pocono and Phoenix, though, so I could be wrong.

20. Mark Martin - Martin won here in 2009, but I expect him to be his usual self on Sunday. He finished 21st and 29th in the two Loudon races last season and if you still think the #5 time has a chance to be competitive this season, I’m guessing you’re not doing very well in fantasy. In ten of Martin’s first twelve starts at “The Magic Mile” he finished in the top 10, but that was in the 90’s and this is 2011.

Avoid These Drivers For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

Matt Kenseth - I may have him ranked this week, but you won’t find him on any of my rosters. Matt hasn’t finished better than 17th at Loudon since 2007, but he used to find success at this track so I could end up being completely wrong on the #17 this weekend. From 2003 to 2007, Kenseth posted ten top 10s in eleven races at “The Magic Mile” and the lone finish outside of that was a 14th. He ended up 8th and 12th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, earlier this year.

Jamie McMurray - I wouldn’t touch Jamie Mac for the rest of the season. This has done a complete 180 from their very successful season in 2010. Jamie finished 3rd here last year, but that was then and this is now. Before that run, you have to go back to 2004 to find McMurray’s last top ten at New Hampshire. His average career finish at this track is 22.2.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex found some success at “The Magic Mile” from 2007 to 2008, where he posted four straight top 10s, but since that little run he had (he was running for DEI at the time), Martin has yet to finish better than 19th here. He finished 10th and 14th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, but I don’t see Martin coming anywhere close to that this weekend.

David Ragan - His momentum may give him a little luck this weekend, but I would still avoid David Ragan at New Hampshire. His best finish came in his first start at this track–he ended up 15th after started 32nd–and David has only completed 94.6% of the laps in the races he has started here. If you’re in an allocation league, I wouldn’t even think about starting Ragan this week. If not, and you feel like taking a major risk, make sure he starts up front and looks stout in practice.

Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Dover International Speedway

Okay, so last week I was completely wrong about Greg Biffle. I summed up his chances at Loudon with one word: “Yikes.” I was about right with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., the rest of the top 5, but I completely blew it on Biffle. Sorry, folks. I guess four out of five ain’t bad, though, right?

Staying on the lead lap is more important at Dover than almost anywhere else: in the three Car of Today races at the track, the last car on the lead lap averages a finish of 8.3. In this race last year, and also this spring, only six cars stayed on the lead lap. Simply put, if you can’t stay on the lead lap, you can’t win.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Dover:

1. Carl Edwards: Of all Chase drivers at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is the best, at 8.2. He leads all drivers in the COT era at the track with 510 points. He hasn’t finished out of the top 15 since Chicagoland at mid-July, and his worst finish at the track in his career is 18th in 2004, his sixth career Sprint Cup start. This one should be a no-brainer.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Even if he hasn’t won at the track since 2005, there’s still something to be said for sweeping the events at a track in your rookie season. That’s exactly what Johnson did at Dover in 2002. Even if his momentum may be slightly decreased after losing at Loudon in the final laps, Johnson has eight top 10s at Dover, with an average finish of 12th in the COT. A top 10 finish is highly plausible.

3. Greg Biffle: When your average finish at a track is 5.4 since 2005, and 3.7 in the COT era, you’re a safe pick. When you’re coming off of a win in the first race of the Chase, you’re a safe pick. When you’re second in points all-time at a track in the COT era, only ten points behind the leader, you’re a safe pick. And most importantly of all, when the writer feels stupid about missing on you, the race winner, completely last week, you’re a mandatory pick. Da Biff will step up again at Dover.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished third in this race last year, and won here in 2001 (remember “Wilson”?), but there hasn’t been too much to speak of since then. Junior has led two laps at Dover since 2004. Granted, his 35th place run earlier this year was a result of an early accident, and some say that Junior could outrun the leaders even with the damage on his car. But an average finish of 18.2 in the three years prior does not bode well. Expect a decent run, but don’t bank on a top finish.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has only failed to complete three laps at Dover since 2005. His average finish in that time is an exceptional 7.9. Although two of his lapped finishes came in the past two races at the track, he came in 7th and 8th, respectively, in those two events. Burton will be solid, if not spectacular, come Sunday.

6. Denny Hamlin: Denny is a bit of an unknown at Dover. In his first three races at the track, his average finish was a solid 8.0. But in his past two races, he’s fallen victim to accidents and has an average finish of 40.5. Take note of the fact that Hamlin has only led 61 laps in a Sprint Cup car at Dover, but they all came in the first of those two wrecks. Also of note, Hamlin has only completed 16 race laps at Dover in a Toyota. High risk can equal high reward, however – choose wisely.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has wrecked in three of his last four Dover starts. From his rookie season until 2004, he was a beast at Dover, with a worst finish of 11th in 12 starts, but since then it’s been all downhill. Stewart’s due for a win, but he hasn’t won at Dover since he swept the track in 2000. Seeing Stewart’s old self at Dover is a distinct possibility, but one never knows how long a streak of bad luck at any one track can last; remember how long it took Dale Earnhardt to win a Daytona 500.

8. Kyle Busch: Shrub is the most intriguing pick of them all. Having lost his points lead (and seven positions in the standings) in a 300-point swing over the past week, Busch has got to be angry. A disastrous run at New Hampshire last week could only have added to that rage. Then again, remember that Rowdy won at Dover in the spring, has an average finish of 10.3 (that would be a lot higher if not for an engine failure in 2006), and is hungry again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’ll win this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer: Clint has been okay at Dover, but he’s never been anything to write home about. He’s only led two laps at the track, his best finish is eighth (twice), and his average finish is a pedestrian 16.2. Don’t expect him to finish much higher than that, as he hasn’t finished in the top 5 since Infineon.

10. Kevin Harvick: Save a 4th place finish in 2003 that saw him lead 133 laps, Kevin has never run consistently well at Dover. In 15 career starts at the track, he’s only finished on the lead lap four times, and his listed average finish of 19.3 is slightly more forgiving than the track has been to him lately. If Happy can really elevate his driving to his 2001 levels at the track (finishes of 8th and 6th), he might have a shot. The team has been on a hot streak lately, with an average finish of 9.2 in the last nine races (which rises to 5.8 if you don’t count the debacle that was Indianapolis), so it’s very possible.

11. Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon is in 11th place in points? Really? His average finish of 8.3 at Dover in the COT era suggests that he can improve on that this weekend, but keep in mind that his last win here was in June of 2001. He’s only failed to complete one lap in the past five races, though, so expect him to at least be reasonably near the front all day. Keep in mind that Gordon won the pole today.

12. Matt Kenseth: Matt has suffered four DNFs at Dover since 2004, three from accidents and one from engine failure. However, when Matt’s luck holds up at Dover, he certainly performs: his average finish is 6.1 in the last seven races he’s finished. He also had a legitimate shot at winning this race last year, leading 192 laps until his engine grenaded with 26 to go. This could be the race to turn this team’s recent luck around: Matt’s finished 39th and 40th in the past two weeks and could use a pick-me-up.

So who would I pick to win this week at Dover? Given his momentum, his past record at the track, and having completed every lap of every race since Chicagoland, Biffle is a safe pick. Or is that my pride talking, after completely blowing it on him last week? Kyle Busch would be a lot safer of a pick if not for his meltdown at New Hampshire – give him a week or two to see if he rebounds or regresses. For a dark horse, think about Kenseth, whose luck hasn’t been the best at Dover or in recent weeks, but can contend for wins at the track when everything goes right.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Classic Manufacturer Battle at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has a real thing for Chevrolet.

There have been twenty-seven Sprint Cup Series races held at this mile-plus slightly banked track since NASCAR  started bringing their premier series there in 1993.  Of those twenty-seven races, drivers who have driven Chevrolets have won twelve of those races or 44.4 percent.  Interestingly though, no one Bowtie driver has dominated in those twelve victories other than Jeff Gordon’s three wins in the mid to late nineties.

The rest of those wins have been scattered about with Jimmy Johnson  the only other driver to post multiple wins, when he swept the 2003 races.  Joe Nemecheck took the win in1999 and Robby Gordon  won the latest race of the year in modern NASCAR history, when he won on November 23, 2001, in the rescheduled race from just after 9-11.

Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer  have all seen victory lane in Chevys since.  Of those twelve wins, drivers who have driven for Hendrick Motorsports have been behind the wheel of seven.  Richard Childress Racing  has bought home the prize three times and current Toyota team, Joe Gibbs Racing seeing the stripe first, twice.

Ford drivers and teams hold the second spot in total wins; with car owner, Jack Roush leading the way.  His drivers; Jeff Burton, with four wins, and Kurt Busch with two, hold  sixty percent of the Blue Oval’s wins.  Robert Yates Racing, which is now a satellite team of Roush-Fenway Racing holds three of the remaining four victories.  The only other driver and team to have won at NHMS was Ryan Newman driving for Roger Penske who is now campaigning Dodges.

Roger Penske, as a car owner has had a fair amount of success over the years at New Hampshire.  He has just done it with a variety of manufacturers.  Along with his one Ford win, Penske owned Dodges have won twice with Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch behind the wheel.  Rusty Wallace  has also sprayed champagne for Roger while piloting a Pontiac in one of two wins for that retired manufacturer.

Ward Burton, driving a Bill Davis Racing Dodge in July of 2002, rounds out the wins at NASCAR’s northern-most Cup venue.

As the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins, Chevy drivers, Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., along with Richard Childress Racing Drivers, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer seem to have the statistical advantage.  But, if you factor in the working agreement between Roush-Fenway and Yates Racing, their nine wins give Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards a great chance of taming the progressive banking at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

It is a classic Ford versus Chevy battle, with one exception.  While Toyota hasn’t seen a win at NHMS yet, they also sport the points leader and Mr. Everything for much of 2008, Kyle Busch.  Toyota’s first win there could be the start of their run to a first Cup championship as well.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chasing Wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

The Chase has been set, the eyes are even more focused on the prize. From all the coverage this week, you would think that the starting grid had been reduced from 43 to 12. That’s not the case here, at On Pit Row.

Who can spoil the fun and break into the Top-5 party, or even steal a win and the Thunder from the Chasers?

You can look at loop this and that all you want. I’ve always been of the school of thought that, “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Eat your heart out.

The stats would tell you to expect more of the same, with most of the Chase contenders heading up the Top-5.

The thing that always bugs me with stats are they fail to take certain things into consideration. Heart, momentum, desire and determination to name a few.

Let’s cut to the Chase, or the lack thereof, to be more specific.

Martin Truex Jr. is one such spoiler that surprisingly the stats have pretty high for NHMS overall. Naturally Truex is a favorite to spoil the Chasers little party, despite recent struggles overall.

Brian Vickers is another look to spoil some fun. While they didn’t make the Chase, the improvements to that team have been nothing short of incredible this season. Even more so over the past dozen or so races. Had they ran that way all season, Tony and Kyle very well could have had some additional manufacturer company.

Our final dark horse of the week is none other than Beak. David Reutimann. Those laps led at Richmond weren’t a fluke. While their season hasn’t been the best of times, compared to 2007 they have to getting more sleep at night. Ol’ Beak has been coming on in the past 6 races, scoring the 16th most points. That isn’t a stat, that’s a fact, by the way. While they may not be able to slip one past the goalie for a win here, they could very well take a Top-10 spot from a Chaser.

Our Dark Horse for entertainment purposes? Robby Gordon, and y’all should know why. Not that I think he’ll finish well, he still has to make the show even, but provided he does he most certainly could provide a little bit of entertainment for the fans.

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

No Way No How No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire

NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set.  The pressure to get in the top twelve has passed.  If you’re in, the question is, can you win it all. 

And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races.  Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?

“That’s one of worst races I probably could have drove, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing.  I’m glad we’re in in a way, but in another way with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.” 

That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years.  Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I.  More from Matt…

“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville.  Our short track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason.  We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger track stuff seems to be running OK.”

I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt.  This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.

“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around – the teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can and that’s what they’ve done and it made an unbelievable difference.”

Did Reiser take away from the no. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edward’s no. 99 and Biffle’s no. 16?  Maybe and maybe not.  But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win.  He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week.  The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer.  Check it out and sign up to play.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different.  Martinsville on steroids is a popular description.  And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers.  David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway  Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon.  His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts.  As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.

Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower.  Juan Pablo Montoya - on a track that I think favors him - comes in at 63.4 in three races.

But what about the other contenders?  Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon.  Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier - 83.1.  Gordon’s Ave Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0. 

But the chemistry of Carl Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne- perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch - makes me think that this race will produce a better result.  If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond?  I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Hosts Start to The Chase

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of the most storied tracks on the Sprint Cup Series.

It has been described as “Martinsville on steroids”; because of its long straights and rather flat turns. Brakes are a big story at New Hampshire.  Those drivers that have brakes at the end of the race will have a decided advantage over drivers that have used them up early on.

Efforts to bring a major racing facility took off in 1989 when ground was broken for New Hampshire International Speedway on a site about 10 miles north of New Hampshire’s capital city, Concord.  The track opened for the first time in June 1990 and hosted its first NASCAR touring series event, the Budweiser 300 for the Busch Series. The Cup Series followed in July 1993, with Rusty Wallace getting the victory.

NHMS is just over one mile in length; officially measured at 1.058 miles with 1 degree of banking on the straights and new progressive banking in the corners that ranges from two to seven degrees.  The ninety-two foot wide turns were reconfigured in 2002 to incorporate the variable banking angle thus making the racetrack more driveable. Drivers like the sixty-five foot wide staights which lends itself to passing anywhere on the race track.

In 2000, the track was the site of a pair of fatal accidents which took the lives of two young drivers.  In May, while practicing for a Busch Series race, Adam Petty’s throttle stuck exiting turn two. The result was a full speed, head-on crash in turns three and four.  When the Winston Cup Series made their Spring appearance, a similar accident occurred to 1998 Rookie of the Year Kenny Irwin, Jr.

NASCAR with track owner, Bill Baird, decided to run restrictor plates on the cars during the Fall race, making it the first track outside of Daytona and Talladega to use them.  Jeff  Burton led flag to flag; resulting in the quick demise of restrictor plate racing at New Hampshire.

Track safety was put front and center starting in 2003, as the track was an early adopter of the SAFER (Steel and Foam Energy Reduction) Barrier technology; outfitting its turns with the soft walls. In 2005 a new infield care center was built, followed in 2006 by a new heliport.

In 2004, the track hosted the first race in the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup. As it turned out, that race played a big role in how the battle for the championship played out. Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman and Jeremy Mayfield were involved in a wreck that stymied their championship hopes, while Kurt Busch, who had won the July race, completed a season’s sweep that started him toward the 2004 Nextel Cup championship.

NHMS not only hosts the first race in The Chase for the Sprint Cup; but it is also the first race in the ten races leading up to The Chase, known as the “Race to The Chase.”

Speedway Motorsports Inc. owner, Bruton Smith, announced on November 2, 2007 that his company had purchased the speedway from the Baird family for $340 million dollars cash and the track would be renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Ryan Newman holds the current track qualifying record of 28.561 sec. (133.357 mph) set September 12, 2003, while Jeff Burton set the race record in July of 1997 with an average speed of 117.134 mph.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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