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Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Dover International Speedway

Okay, so last week I was completely wrong about Greg Biffle. I summed up his chances at Loudon with one word: “Yikes.” I was about right with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., the rest of the top 5, but I completely blew it on Biffle. Sorry, folks. I guess four out of five ain’t bad, though, right?

Staying on the lead lap is more important at Dover than almost anywhere else: in the three Car of Today races at the track, the last car on the lead lap averages a finish of 8.3. In this race last year, and also this spring, only six cars stayed on the lead lap. Simply put, if you can’t stay on the lead lap, you can’t win.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Dover:

1. Carl Edwards: Of all Chase drivers at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is the best, at 8.2. He leads all drivers in the COT era at the track with 510 points. He hasn’t finished out of the top 15 since Chicagoland at mid-July, and his worst finish at the track in his career is 18th in 2004, his sixth career Sprint Cup start. This one should be a no-brainer.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Even if he hasn’t won at the track since 2005, there’s still something to be said for sweeping the events at a track in your rookie season. That’s exactly what Johnson did at Dover in 2002. Even if his momentum may be slightly decreased after losing at Loudon in the final laps, Johnson has eight top 10s at Dover, with an average finish of 12th in the COT. A top 10 finish is highly plausible.

3. Greg Biffle: When your average finish at a track is 5.4 since 2005, and 3.7 in the COT era, you’re a safe pick. When you’re coming off of a win in the first race of the Chase, you’re a safe pick. When you’re second in points all-time at a track in the COT era, only ten points behind the leader, you’re a safe pick. And most importantly of all, when the writer feels stupid about missing on you, the race winner, completely last week, you’re a mandatory pick. Da Biff will step up again at Dover.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished third in this race last year, and won here in 2001 (remember “Wilson”?), but there hasn’t been too much to speak of since then. Junior has led two laps at Dover since 2004. Granted, his 35th place run earlier this year was a result of an early accident, and some say that Junior could outrun the leaders even with the damage on his car. But an average finish of 18.2 in the three years prior does not bode well. Expect a decent run, but don’t bank on a top finish.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has only failed to complete three laps at Dover since 2005. His average finish in that time is an exceptional 7.9. Although two of his lapped finishes came in the past two races at the track, he came in 7th and 8th, respectively, in those two events. Burton will be solid, if not spectacular, come Sunday.

6. Denny Hamlin: Denny is a bit of an unknown at Dover. In his first three races at the track, his average finish was a solid 8.0. But in his past two races, he’s fallen victim to accidents and has an average finish of 40.5. Take note of the fact that Hamlin has only led 61 laps in a Sprint Cup car at Dover, but they all came in the first of those two wrecks. Also of note, Hamlin has only completed 16 race laps at Dover in a Toyota. High risk can equal high reward, however – choose wisely.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has wrecked in three of his last four Dover starts. From his rookie season until 2004, he was a beast at Dover, with a worst finish of 11th in 12 starts, but since then it’s been all downhill. Stewart’s due for a win, but he hasn’t won at Dover since he swept the track in 2000. Seeing Stewart’s old self at Dover is a distinct possibility, but one never knows how long a streak of bad luck at any one track can last; remember how long it took Dale Earnhardt to win a Daytona 500.

8. Kyle Busch: Shrub is the most intriguing pick of them all. Having lost his points lead (and seven positions in the standings) in a 300-point swing over the past week, Busch has got to be angry. A disastrous run at New Hampshire last week could only have added to that rage. Then again, remember that Rowdy won at Dover in the spring, has an average finish of 10.3 (that would be a lot higher if not for an engine failure in 2006), and is hungry again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’ll win this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer: Clint has been okay at Dover, but he’s never been anything to write home about. He’s only led two laps at the track, his best finish is eighth (twice), and his average finish is a pedestrian 16.2. Don’t expect him to finish much higher than that, as he hasn’t finished in the top 5 since Infineon.

10. Kevin Harvick: Save a 4th place finish in 2003 that saw him lead 133 laps, Kevin has never run consistently well at Dover. In 15 career starts at the track, he’s only finished on the lead lap four times, and his listed average finish of 19.3 is slightly more forgiving than the track has been to him lately. If Happy can really elevate his driving to his 2001 levels at the track (finishes of 8th and 6th), he might have a shot. The team has been on a hot streak lately, with an average finish of 9.2 in the last nine races (which rises to 5.8 if you don’t count the debacle that was Indianapolis), so it’s very possible.

11. Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon is in 11th place in points? Really? His average finish of 8.3 at Dover in the COT era suggests that he can improve on that this weekend, but keep in mind that his last win here was in June of 2001. He’s only failed to complete one lap in the past five races, though, so expect him to at least be reasonably near the front all day. Keep in mind that Gordon won the pole today.

12. Matt Kenseth: Matt has suffered four DNFs at Dover since 2004, three from accidents and one from engine failure. However, when Matt’s luck holds up at Dover, he certainly performs: his average finish is 6.1 in the last seven races he’s finished. He also had a legitimate shot at winning this race last year, leading 192 laps until his engine grenaded with 26 to go. This could be the race to turn this team’s recent luck around: Matt’s finished 39th and 40th in the past two weeks and could use a pick-me-up.

So who would I pick to win this week at Dover? Given his momentum, his past record at the track, and having completed every lap of every race since Chicagoland, Biffle is a safe pick. Or is that my pride talking, after completely blowing it on him last week? Kyle Busch would be a lot safer of a pick if not for his meltdown at New Hampshire – give him a week or two to see if he rebounds or regresses. For a dark horse, think about Kenseth, whose luck hasn’t been the best at Dover or in recent weeks, but can contend for wins at the track when everything goes right.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Classic Manufacturer Battle at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has a real thing for Chevrolet.

There have been twenty-seven Sprint Cup Series races held at this mile-plus slightly banked track since NASCAR  started bringing their premier series there in 1993.  Of those twenty-seven races, drivers who have driven Chevrolets have won twelve of those races or 44.4 percent.  Interestingly though, no one Bowtie driver has dominated in those twelve victories other than Jeff Gordon’s three wins in the mid to late nineties.

The rest of those wins have been scattered about with Jimmy Johnson  the only other driver to post multiple wins, when he swept the 2003 races.  Joe Nemecheck took the win in1999 and Robby Gordon  won the latest race of the year in modern NASCAR history, when he won on November 23, 2001, in the rescheduled race from just after 9-11.

Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer  have all seen victory lane in Chevys since.  Of those twelve wins, drivers who have driven for Hendrick Motorsports have been behind the wheel of seven.  Richard Childress Racing  has bought home the prize three times and current Toyota team, Joe Gibbs Racing seeing the stripe first, twice.

Ford drivers and teams hold the second spot in total wins; with car owner, Jack Roush leading the way.  His drivers; Jeff Burton, with four wins, and Kurt Busch with two, hold  sixty percent of the Blue Oval’s wins.  Robert Yates Racing, which is now a satellite team of Roush-Fenway Racing holds three of the remaining four victories.  The only other driver and team to have won at NHMS was Ryan Newman driving for Roger Penske who is now campaigning Dodges.

Roger Penske, as a car owner has had a fair amount of success over the years at New Hampshire.  He has just done it with a variety of manufacturers.  Along with his one Ford win, Penske owned Dodges have won twice with Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch behind the wheel.  Rusty Wallace  has also sprayed champagne for Roger while piloting a Pontiac in one of two wins for that retired manufacturer.

Ward Burton, driving a Bill Davis Racing Dodge in July of 2002, rounds out the wins at NASCAR’s northern-most Cup venue.

As the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins, Chevy drivers, Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., along with Richard Childress Racing Drivers, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer seem to have the statistical advantage.  But, if you factor in the working agreement between Roush-Fenway and Yates Racing, their nine wins give Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards a great chance of taming the progressive banking at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

It is a classic Ford versus Chevy battle, with one exception.  While Toyota hasn’t seen a win at NHMS yet, they also sport the points leader and Mr. Everything for much of 2008, Kyle Busch.  Toyota’s first win there could be the start of their run to a first Cup championship as well.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chasing Wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

The Chase has been set, the eyes are even more focused on the prize. From all the coverage this week, you would think that the starting grid had been reduced from 43 to 12. That’s not the case here, at On Pit Row.

Who can spoil the fun and break into the Top-5 party, or even steal a win and the Thunder from the Chasers?

You can look at loop this and that all you want. I’ve always been of the school of thought that, “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Eat your heart out.

The stats would tell you to expect more of the same, with most of the Chase contenders heading up the Top-5.

The thing that always bugs me with stats are they fail to take certain things into consideration. Heart, momentum, desire and determination to name a few.

Let’s cut to the Chase, or the lack thereof, to be more specific.

Martin Truex Jr. is one such spoiler that surprisingly the stats have pretty high for NHMS overall. Naturally Truex is a favorite to spoil the Chasers little party, despite recent struggles overall.

Brian Vickers is another look to spoil some fun. While they didn’t make the Chase, the improvements to that team have been nothing short of incredible this season. Even more so over the past dozen or so races. Had they ran that way all season, Tony and Kyle very well could have had some additional manufacturer company.

Our final dark horse of the week is none other than Beak. David Reutimann. Those laps led at Richmond weren’t a fluke. While their season hasn’t been the best of times, compared to 2007 they have to getting more sleep at night. Ol’ Beak has been coming on in the past 6 races, scoring the 16th most points. That isn’t a stat, that’s a fact, by the way. While they may not be able to slip one past the goalie for a win here, they could very well take a Top-10 spot from a Chaser.

Our Dark Horse for entertainment purposes? Robby Gordon, and y’all should know why. Not that I think he’ll finish well, he still has to make the show even, but provided he does he most certainly could provide a little bit of entertainment for the fans.

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

No Way No How No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire

NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set.  The pressure to get in the top twelve has passed.  If you’re in, the question is, can you win it all. 

And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races.  Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?

“That’s one of worst races I probably could have drove, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing.  I’m glad we’re in in a way, but in another way with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.” 

That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years.  Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I.  More from Matt…

“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville.  Our short track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason.  We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger track stuff seems to be running OK.”

I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt.  This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.

“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around – the teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can and that’s what they’ve done and it made an unbelievable difference.”

Did Reiser take away from the no. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edward’s no. 99 and Biffle’s no. 16?  Maybe and maybe not.  But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win.  He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week.  The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer.  Check it out and sign up to play.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different.  Martinsville on steroids is a popular description.  And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers.  David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway  Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon.  His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts.  As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.

Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower.  Juan Pablo Montoya - on a track that I think favors him - comes in at 63.4 in three races.

But what about the other contenders?  Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon.  Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier - 83.1.  Gordon’s Ave Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0. 

But the chemistry of Carl Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne- perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch - makes me think that this race will produce a better result.  If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond?  I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Hosts Start to The Chase

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of the most storied tracks on the Sprint Cup Series.

It has been described as “Martinsville on steroids”; because of its long straights and rather flat turns. Brakes are a big story at New Hampshire.  Those drivers that have brakes at the end of the race will have a decided advantage over drivers that have used them up early on.

Efforts to bring a major racing facility took off in 1989 when ground was broken for New Hampshire International Speedway on a site about 10 miles north of New Hampshire’s capital city, Concord.  The track opened for the first time in June 1990 and hosted its first NASCAR touring series event, the Budweiser 300 for the Busch Series. The Cup Series followed in July 1993, with Rusty Wallace getting the victory.

NHMS is just over one mile in length; officially measured at 1.058 miles with 1 degree of banking on the straights and new progressive banking in the corners that ranges from two to seven degrees.  The ninety-two foot wide turns were reconfigured in 2002 to incorporate the variable banking angle thus making the racetrack more driveable. Drivers like the sixty-five foot wide staights which lends itself to passing anywhere on the race track.

In 2000, the track was the site of a pair of fatal accidents which took the lives of two young drivers.  In May, while practicing for a Busch Series race, Adam Petty’s throttle stuck exiting turn two. The result was a full speed, head-on crash in turns three and four.  When the Winston Cup Series made their Spring appearance, a similar accident occurred to 1998 Rookie of the Year Kenny Irwin, Jr.

NASCAR with track owner, Bill Baird, decided to run restrictor plates on the cars during the Fall race, making it the first track outside of Daytona and Talladega to use them.  Jeff  Burton led flag to flag; resulting in the quick demise of restrictor plate racing at New Hampshire.

Track safety was put front and center starting in 2003, as the track was an early adopter of the SAFER (Steel and Foam Energy Reduction) Barrier technology; outfitting its turns with the soft walls. In 2005 a new infield care center was built, followed in 2006 by a new heliport.

In 2004, the track hosted the first race in the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup. As it turned out, that race played a big role in how the battle for the championship played out. Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman and Jeremy Mayfield were involved in a wreck that stymied their championship hopes, while Kurt Busch, who had won the July race, completed a season’s sweep that started him toward the 2004 Nextel Cup championship.

NHMS not only hosts the first race in The Chase for the Sprint Cup; but it is also the first race in the ten races leading up to The Chase, known as the “Race to The Chase.”

Speedway Motorsports Inc. owner, Bruton Smith, announced on November 2, 2007 that his company had purchased the speedway from the Baird family for $340 million dollars cash and the track would be renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Ryan Newman holds the current track qualifying record of 28.561 sec. (133.357 mph) set September 12, 2003, while Jeff Burton set the race record in July of 1997 with an average speed of 117.134 mph.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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