Martinsville Looks Dangerous for Roush-Fenway Duo

October 12, 2008

Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have had plenty of success on short tracks. But not at Martinsville Speedway. The two Roush-Fenway drivers have little margin for error left if they plan to push Jimmy Johnson and, now, Jeff Burton for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship.

Martinsville, being the half-mile bullring that it is, has a bit of a wild-card flavor when it comes to championship considerations. Accidents happen, and they can happen to anybody here. But the trends favor Burton and Johnson to miss the wrecks and Edwards and Biffle, not so much.

Of all the Chase contenders in 2008, Biffle has the lowest Loop Data Driver Rating for Martinsville – 64.4 – and Edwards is next at 72.4. Biffle has just one top ten in 11 attempts and an Ave Finish of 23.6. Carl has one top ten and averages a bit worse than 19th place. For comparison, Jimmy Johnson has nine top fives, 12 top tens and an Ave Finish of 6.0. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 121.2.

For either Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle to leave Virginia this weekend and still be considered serious contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup, a reversal of fortune must occur. For them, Jimmy Johnson or both.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Ford Racing, Martinsville Speedway, Nascar Chase 2008, NASCAR Loop Data | Leave a Comment

Looks Like an Up Hill Week for Kevin Harvick at Lowes

October 6, 2008

This post may seem like we’re piling on Kevin Harvick when he’s down. It isn’t like the Happy One had a great day Sunday at Talladega. But we’re headed to Lowes Motor Speedway this week and this is the OnPitRow.com post that is supposed to tell you which drivers are likely to catch a Saturday night fever. Harvick jumps out.

Harvick, and fellow Chasers Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth all wrecked out of the Talladega Wild Card 500. That mixed up the Chase for the Sprint Cup for sure, but that’s not what this is about.

They all have a short week to get ready for the next round in their own backyards, Charlotte. Home cookin’ may help, but it hasn’t done much for Harvick so far. Happy has the worst Loop Stat Driver Rating of all the 2008 Chase contenders for Lowes – 66.4. And it’s not a Chevy thing. Jimmy Johnson is tops with 116.5. Harvick hasn’t led a lap in the last seven races at Lowes. His average finish in those seven is 23.1.

And it isn’t just the North Carolina speedway. Harvick hasn’t been good on intermediate tracks in general. In the last five years, covering 75 possible starts on intermediates, Kevin has led the fewer laps than all but one driver to start all 75 – 159. Johnson has led 2735. Eight of the top 11 lap leaders on the cookie-cutters are ’08 Chasers. Number 11 is Junior with 908. And we used to talk about Earnhardt Jr being weak on the mile-and-a-halfers.

Jeff Burton is just one spot better than Harvick in the laps led department. But Burton has two wins and 31 top tens on intermediates. Harvick is winless. The only 75 race starter with fewer lead laps than Harvick is Bobby Labonte. But even Labonte’s Driver Rating is 81.2.

It just doesn’t look like Harvick will make a big move in the Chase at Lowes. Labonte, Michael Waltrip and Robby Gordon aren’t very good bets either, but you likely already thought that. I know I did. But Kevin Harvick’s record on the intermediates surprised me.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Lowe's Motor Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, NASCAR Loop Data, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment

Why David Ragan Missed the Chase

September 22, 2008

The key to championship success in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is being good to great on the ubiquitous mile-and-a-half tracks. NASCAR’s intermediates – which include the two milers at Michigan and California and all of the one-point-fivers make up most of the Sprint Cup schedule. The best of the best do well on these tracks.

Jimmy Johnson is NASCAR’s best-of-the-best poster boy. In the 114 races run on intermediate tracks during the last five years, Johnson has 22 wins, 53 top fives and 78 top tens. And two Sprint Cup championships.

The driver with the next highest win total on the intermediates is Greg Biffle. And he has won the first two races of the 2008 Chase to the Cup. But this isn’t about who likely will do well at Kansas Speedway this week. This is about who won’t.

David Ragan has only raced once in the Cup series at Kansas. He started 18th and improved to a 16th place finish. Tells us nothing, really. But in 43 starts on the intermediates, Ragan has only seven top tens and three top fives. The top fives are great. His consistency level on these tracks probably cost him his first try at the Chase.

The guy who beat him out - Clint Bowyer – has raced in 67 races on the 1.5ers and has eight top fives – compared to Ragan’s three, not overwhelmingly superior. But Clint has 25 top tens, which is. Bowyer has made the Chase these last two years because of his performance on the type of track that constitutes the majority of the series.

Has David Ragan improved enough on the intermediates? I wouldn’t count him out this week, mostly because he drives for Roush-Fenway and they look very stout right now.

Robby Gordon has been close to horrible on these tracks. Sam Hornish Jr owns zero top tens and three DNFs. David Reutimann has had poor results as have the Yates Racing duo of David Gilliland and Travis Kvapil. Juan Pablo Montoya has four top tens and seven DNFs in 43 intermediate track Cup races.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Kansas Speedway, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment

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