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NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Carfax 400 from Michigan Speedway

Greetings On Pit Row readers.

Seven races have passed since the Sprint Cup series drivers have visited Michigan International Speedway. There has been one other cookie-cutterish track in that stretch, Chicagoland Speedway. But in terms of the most similar track on the schedule, and for the purposes of this week’s preview, we’ll be looking at the results from April’s race at Texas Motor Speedway.

Historically, Roush-Fenway have done very well at MIS. As I mentioned on this week’s On Pit Row, I have Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle top-four fantasy options despite their inconsistencies– I’ll even give David Ragan a shot this week.

Don’t sleep on Bill Elliott, who I like as a long shot in salary cap formats. Back in June he started 15th and finished 16th at MIS, where he owns seven career wins. Elliott has qualified 15th or better in his last four attempts; his average finish is 21.5 in those races– not bad for the major lineup flexibility his budget price tag opens up.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

Good luck this week and please leave your comments below! Download a printer-friendly version here.

1. Tony Stewart… Has finished 12th or better in six consecutive races at Michigan. Also finished 12th or better in 12 of the last 14 races, including seven top-five finishes in that span. Won in ‘00. Finished seventh in June, fourth at Texas. Y!-B1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier. Average start of 4.6 over the last seven races. Has led laps in five straight races, average finish of 13.4 in that span. Dominated in June, leading 146 of 200 laps but finished 22nd after running out of fuel on the final lap. Runner-up at Texas. Y!-A1
3. Carl Edwards… Nine top-10 finishes in 10 career starts, laps led in seven. Finished fourth in June. Won last year, ‘07. Finished 10th at Texas. Y!-A2
4. Greg Biffle… Wins in ‘04, ‘05. Led 42 laps, finished fifth in June after running out of fuel while leading the last lap. Finished fourth last year. Finished third at Texas. Y!-A3
5. Jeff Gordon… Four top-10 finishes over the last seven races. Runner-up in June. Won in ‘01, ‘98. Won at Texas, started second. Y!-A4
6. Mark Martin… Won in June after Johnson and Biffle ran out of fuel on the last lap, his first Michigan win since ‘98 and fifth overall. Finished sixth last year, snapping a streak of three finishes outside the top-20. Finished sixth at Texas.
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Career-best starting position (seventh) and finishing result (sixth) in June, had never finished better than 25th. Finished seventh at Texas. Y!-B2
8. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 9.5, not counting last year’s DNF. Finished a career-best third in June, 12th at Texas. Y!-B3
9. Brian Vickers… Strong qualifier. Has won the pole in two straight. Last four races: four top-10 finishes, led laps in three, average finish of 7.0. Finished ninth in June, 16th at Texas. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Only two top-10 finishes over the last six races: eighth-place finish in June, ‘07 win. Also won in ‘03. Finished eighth at Texas. Y!-B5
11. Matt Kenseth… Owns six top-five finishes over the last nine races, one win (’06). Also won in ‘02. Finished 20th in June, snapping a streak of three consecutive top-five finishes. Started third, finished fifth at Texas.
12. Kyle Busch… Strong qualifier. Average start of 4.4 over the last five races, average finish of 9.4 in that span- finished 13th or better in each. Has led laps in three straight. Finished 13th in June, 18th at Texas.
13. Kasey Kahne… Risky play. Has five top-five finishes in 11 career starts but average finish of 28.5 in the other six races. Won from the pole in ‘06. Finished 21st in June, 19th at Texas. Y!-B6
14. Ryan Newman… Risky play. Win in ‘03, ‘04 but average finish of 22.0 in the 10 races since, no top-10 finishes. Finished 23rd in June, 15th at Texas. Y!-B7
15. Jeff Burton… Last 13 races: nine top-15 finishes, zero top-10s. Finished ninth at Texas.
16. David Reutimann… Last two races: 5.5 average start, 16.5 average finish. Won the pole at Texas, led 40 laps, finished 11th. Y!-B8
17. Clint Bowyer… Career-best 10th-place finish in June. Average finish of 25.2 in six other career finishes. Finished 22nd at Texas.
18. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Finished 18th in June, snapping a streak of six straight top-15 finishes. Average finish of 11.6 over last seven races.
19. David Ragan… Strong value play. Five career starts: 13.0 career average, gained track position in each. Finished 15th in June. Started fourth, DNF at Texas (engine).
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finished 14th in June but snapped a streak of seven races with at least one lap led. Finished 23rd and won in ‘08.
21. Joey Logano… Started 24th, finished 25th in June, first career start at Michigan. Started sixth, finished seventh in last year’s Nationwide race. Started 10th, finished 30th at Texas.
22. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Last five races: four top-11 finishes- 10th or 11th in three straight.
23. Elliott Sadler… Weak value play. Has finished 12th or better in three straight. Average finish of 10.0 in that span. Odd stat over the last five years: average qualifying position of 4.8 in August races, 28.2 in June.
24. Casey Mears… Started 37th, finished 24 in June. Average finish of 24.0 over the last three.
25. Marcos Ambrose… DNF last August, finished 31st in June. Started 11th, DNF at Texas (engine). Average finish of 15.5 in two Nationwide races. Y!-C1
26. Paul Menard… Long shot value play. Average finish of 20.0 in seven career starts, three top-20s. Started fifth, finished 13th at Texas.
27. Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. Average finish of 12.0 in two Nationwide races. Started 40th, finished 23rd at Texas. Y!-C2
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Started 15th, finished 16th in June. Seven-time winner, finished 11th in ‘07 and ‘05. Started 37th, finished 28th at Texas. Y!-C3
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Career average finish of 24.3. Finished 29th in June, 22nd in both ‘08 races. Y!-C4
30. Martin Truex Jr…. Going the wrong way. ‘07- runner-up twice, ‘08- finished 16th and 17th. ‘09- finished 36th in June.
31. AJ Allmendinger… Started sixth, but finished a career-worst 39th in June due to equipment issues. Average finish of 26.0 in three other career starts.
32. Bobby Labonte… Started 17th, finished 28th in June. Average finish of 28.7 over the last three races. Three-time winner: ‘99, ‘95 sweep.
33. Robby Gordon…. Average finish of 38.5 last year, 16.75 the previous two years (’06-’07). Started 13th, finished 17th in June.
34. Michael Waltrip… Started 36th, finished 30th in June. Average finish of 21.0 last year.
35. Reed Sorenson… Two top-10 finishes as a rookie in ‘06 but average finish of 31.0 in the five races since.
36. David Stremme… Average finish of 29.2 in five career starts, one top-20.
37. David Gilliland… Started 35th, finished 32nd in June. Average finish of 26.5 last year.
38. John Andretti… Started 10th, finished 33rd in June. Average finish of 32.0 last year.
39. Joe Nemechek… DNF in June. Average finish of 31.0 last year. Failed to qualify at Texas.
40. Scott Speed… Started 21st, finished 37th in June, first career start at Michigan. Failed to qualify at Texas.
41. Mike Skinner… Started 22nd, finished 35th in June.
42. Dave Blaney… Has not finished on the led laps in three straight (two DNFs).
43. Tony Raines… DNF in June. Started 30th, finished 31st last year.
44. Mike Bliss… No starts at Michigan since ‘05.
45. Mike Wallace… No starts at Michigan since ‘05.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: LifeLock.com 400

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Sprint All-Star Race at Lowes Motorspeedway

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Crown Royal Russ Friedman 400 at RIR

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Bristol Motor Speedway: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

race 5: thunder valley My Bobby Labonte pick didn’t work out too well for Atlanta. I had such high hopes too. How did you do. Three players picked race winner Kurt Busch. Jimmy Johnson was the most popular choice though, and that didn’t work out too bad.   But the One and Done format means that all of you who have used J J, Kyle, Carl and Jeffy in the first four races will have to get out of your comfort zone pretty soon Good luck. You can view all the results for One and Done week four here. prizes prizes prizes In case you missed it, here is the prize list for the One and Done Spring Thing. The player who finishes with the most points, and survives any tie-breakers will receive a Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure package, good at several NASCAR tracks, including Talladega Superspeedway. You can read the experience of one of our past winners at that track right here. That’s a great prize, for any game. And second through tenth ain’t too shabby neither. 2nd - Autographed Jamie McMurray Crown Royal team hat and embroidered Crown Royal team golf shirt (size mens medium) 3rd - Denny Hamlin Limited Edition Memorial Day USMC 1/24th Scale Diecast from Fed Ex 4th - Michael Waltrip No. 55 Hat and autographed Picture Card 5th - “50 Years of ARCA” Coffee Table Book and ARCA Hat 6th - Gillette Young Guns Hat and Golf Shirt (mens size large) 7th - Geico Racing Max Papis No 13 Hat and T-Shirt (mens size x large) 8th - Denny Hamlin “First Win T-shirt” (mens size large) from Fed Ex 9th - Crown Royal Dan Lowery 400 Roush Racing Hat 10th - Kevin Harvick Bobblehead from Shell Gasolines Need a tip to help with your pick this week? Read the comments of our guest prognosticators in the side bar of this newsletter. They told me that they know what they’re talking about.

e

experts Every week we’ll ask a few folks from around the NASCAR internet community to share who they think would be a good pick for the next race. Phil Tripp of One Lugnut Short. “How to win at Bristol? Unlike plate tracks where drivers need to miss the “big one”, winning at Bristol, a driver needs to miss 20 or so “little ones”.It is Kevin Harvick’s turn to dodge the bullet a couple dozen times Sunday afternoon and find his way to victory lane.” MichganCircleTrack.com publisher Patrick McNamara is not just calling for a Kyle Busch win in the Sprint Cup race. Patrick predicts a weekend sweep by the Shrubster. Would you argue with someone named McNamara on St Patrick’s Day? Fat Sandy Dirtburger of BlackFlaggedOnline.com: “I just got done picking my NCAA basketball bracket based on who was burning up the hardwood last time I watched a basketball game (sneak peak, I’ve got Arizona and Indiana in the Final Four) OK, someone just told me Indiana isn’t in the tournament this year, so I’ll go with Georgetown. I’m applying the same wisdom to the short track this weekend. You can’t go wrong with past winners Bill Elliot and Mark Martin. Tell them there’s an early bird special at the Bristol Waffle House and they’ll turn laps like malnourished lumberjacks. Or if you want a driver under age 50, go with Kurt Busch for a second week in a row. As always, you’re welcome.”

The Differnce Between Sure Things and WAGs

I was actually going to take this space to recap my picks during the recent 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup. The idea came from a sense of obligation - a need to fess up and face my results. But to rehash those predictions after the fact would be…boring. I did get a few right - Greg Biffle at Dover, Jimmy Johnson at Kansas and Carl Edwards at Homestead.

But I missed on seven. As I’ve said before, follow the advice you find here at your own risk. If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

The sure things at OnPitRow.com are the terrific writing by a staff of dedicated NASCAR observers and some of the easiest contests to win anywhere. In the last month, we’ve given out thirty some Kevin Harvick bobbleheads, courtesy of Shell gasolines, dozens of hats and diecasts and, as of Friday, five copies of A & E Home Video’s new  DALE EARNHARDT 10 GREATEST WINS .

My fantasy picks are more than wild guesses. I spend way too much time trying to make the right choices. But if you’re looking for a “lead-pipe cinch”, bet that OnPitRow.com and  ON PIT ROW - “the fastest two hours on radio” will have a bunch of new features and more cool stuff to give away as we get closer to Speedweeks.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

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