Chasers are 1 for 1: Let the nightmares of Monsters begin

September 18, 2008

A congrats are in order for Greg Biffle, for taking the first Chase win for 2008.

Getting down to business, let’s get a quick summary of who crashed the Chase party at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and review last weeks “predictions“.

Prediction 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Finishing in a respectable 7th place. Luke: 1 for 1;
Prediction 2: Brian Vickers
Finishing a dismal 35th, thanks to getting the ol’ T-Bone from David Gilliland. Luke: 1 for 2;
Prediction 3: David Reutimann
Finishing decent in 15th, there were 28 other competitors who would have loved to trade spots. Not too shabby, Beak. Keep on keepin’ on. Luke: 1 for 3; (Half credit? Almost count?)

Now on to this weeks job. Taming the Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway.

Our first spoiler lead off last week as well. Now we’re to the home track of Martin Truex Jr., and he would love to take those checkers here at Dover. If you had to place a wager on tracks this team goes the extra mile for, this is certainly one of them. Finishing a strong 6th here in June, look for that to remain the case as he takes a Top10 from a Chaser.

David Ragan is looking for a bit of redemption after finishing 28th last week. David had a Top-15 here in June, and certainly has the capability for improvement by sneaking into the Top-10.

Ryan Newman needs a finish. Is he too distracted thinking of greener pastures? Perhaps, but it’s about time he had something solid. No stranger to the challenge of the Monster Mile.

There are several other possibilities for taking valuable Top-10 points from a Chaser. David Reutimann, or even Brian Vickers, but then again they have that potential just about any given week as of late. Potential doesn’t mean Top-10, however, as we find out week in and week out.

Dover offers a unique challenge. Steve will tell you it’s the concrete. Some will say it’s the banking. For me, I think the challenge comes from keeping it together for 400 miles while running at high speeds in what could be called Bristol’s big brother.

Those who can keep it focused for the distance will have the highest chances of success here. There’s a lot of time spent in the corners, and the constant battering of G-forces can take their toll. Keep your head in it, remain focused, and breathe when you can and you may just tame that Monster.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Luke · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

September 12, 2008

So the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set, the 12 drivers involved have made their compulsory David Letterman Show appearance, and we’re set for ten weeks of the finest racing NASCAR has to offer.

We start at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, not always the most entertaining track, but perhaps the most vital in the Chase. Of the four drivers to win at Loudon since the Chase era began in 2004, none has ever finished worse than sixth in points that year. With that in mind, expect a Chase driver to win this weekend; the question is, which one?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this weekend at Loudon:

1. Kyle Busch: Kyle is usually better at Loudon in the summer (average finish of 10.3 in four starts) than he is in the fall (average finish of 23.0 in three starts). However, in three Car of Today starts at the track, his average finish is 13.3 with one top 5 finish, and his summer race this year was sabotaged by the front bumper of Juan Pablo Montoya.

2. Carl Edwards: Surprisingly, one second place finish in summer 2006 comprises Cousin Carl’s only top 10 finish at Loudon. On the other hand, Edwards’ worst finish at the track was 20th in fall 2004, in only his fifth career Cup start. In eight career starts, he’s only failed to complete one lap (in 2004). Edwards won’t get you a win, most likely, but he’s a sure bet for a solid finish.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t won a race at New Hampshire since he swept both events in 2003. That being said, he also has never failed to finish a race at the track, only getting caught up in one accident two years ago that put him down 67 laps. His average finish in the COT is a whopping 6.7, and his average finish at the track overall is a solid 10.5. Expect Johnson to challenge for a win, especially given the hot streak he’s been on lately.

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior led 29 laps here in the summer, 68 last year in subpar Dale Earnhardt Inc. equipment, and 120 at the fall race in 2003. He’s capable of running well at Loudon, even if his average finish in COT races here is only 14.7. The only reason Junior finished in 24th here this summer was because of a pit road accident with Jamie McMurray, when Junior forgot to signal that he was entering the pits and McMurray plowed into his car. Look for another decent run.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint won this race last year after leading 222 laps. It was his first career Sprint Cup victory, and it put to rest criticism that he made the 2007 Chase without any race wins. Clint then went on to finish third overall last year. He was also fastest in Cup practice on Friday. However, his average finish in his other four career starts at NHMS is 27.5. Bowyer will either be a boom or a bust this weekend.

6. Denny Hamlin: For starters, in five career New Hampshire starts, Denny has never failed to finish the race. His average finish of 6.8 is buoyed by one win and four top 10s in those races, with his worst finish being 15th at this race last year. Count on a top finish.

7. Jeff Burton: You can’t go wrong with any driver who once led every lap of a race in the modern era, and Burton led every lap of this race in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, in 9 starts, his average finish was 4.7 with four wins. Since joining RCR, Burton’s average finish is a solid if not spectacular 11.1, and RCR cars have won at New Hampshire in the fall the past two years. Seeing Burton in Victory Lane again this weekend shouldn’t be a stretch.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke should have won at Loudon in the summer, until the racing gods decided to smile upon nemesis Kurt Busch instead. Factoring in a win instead of his eventual 13th place finish would make Tony’s average COT finish at New Hampshire a whopping 5.3. Since 2004, he’s led 620 of 2692 possible laps in Cup starts at the track, and was .292 seconds away from sweeping both 2005 races. Tony should break his winless drought this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Save for three top 5 finishes accrued in his excellent 2005 season and the summer 2006 race, Biffle hasn’t been all that impressive at New Hampshire. Da Biff has an average finish of 19.5 overall at Loudon, but it’s only 20.4 in the fall races. Worse still, Biffle’s average finish in the COT at Loudon is 21.7. Yikes.

10. Jeff Gordon: Since the COT was first run at New Hampshire last year, Gordon has scored the most points at the track of any Chase driver, with 475. He has finished in the top 10 15 out of 27 times he’s started at New Hampshire, and has three wins at the track. Count on a solid finish.

11. Kevin Harvick: Happy won this race in 2006 on the way to a fourth place finish in points. Since 2003, Harvick has never finished outside of the top 20 at Loudon in the fall, with his worst finish being 17th last year. Harvick also led 54 laps in the summer race.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth himself said last week at Richmond that Roush Fenway cars aren’t too good at Loudon, and he backed it up by ranking 39th out of 45 on Friday’s speed chart. However, he’s also the seventh best driver of all-time in the COT era at the track. In 17 career starts at Loudon, Kenseth’s average finish is 10.9, and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at the track in over six years.

So who would I pick? Stewart, of course. Not only is Smoke overdue for a win, highly competitive at New Hampshire, and moderately fast in practice (13th overall), but he’s got a monkey on his back after (in his opinion) throwing away a win last week at Richmond. Expect Tony to make amends this week.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Chris Leone · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, New Hampshire Motor Speedway | Leave a Comment

Chasing Wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

September 11, 2008

Brian Vickers and Martin Truex split Greg Biffle at Fontana.

The Chase has been set, the eyes are even more focused on the prize. From all the coverage this week, you would think that the starting grid had been reduced from 43 to 12. That’s not the case here, at On Pit Row.

Who can spoil the fun and break into the Top-5 party, or even steal a win and the Thunder from the Chasers?

You can look at loop this and that all you want. I’ve always been of the school of thought that, “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Eat your heart out.

The stats would tell you to expect more of the same, with most of the Chase contenders heading up the Top-5.

The thing that always bugs me with stats are they fail to take certain things into consideration. Heart, momentum, desire and determination to name a few.

Let’s cut to the Chase, or the lack thereof, to be more specific.

Martin Truex Jr. is one such spoiler that surprisingly the stats have pretty high for NHMS overall. Naturally Truex is a favorite to spoil the Chasers little party, despite recent struggles overall.

Brian Vickers is another look to spoil some fun. While they didn’t make the Chase, the improvements to that team have been nothing short of incredible this season. Even more so over the past dozen or so races. Had they ran that way all season, Tony and Kyle very well could have had some additional manufacturer company.

Our final dark horse of the week is none other than Beak. David Reutimann. Those laps led at Richmond weren’t a fluke. While their season hasn’t been the best of times, compared to 2007 they have to getting more sleep at night. Ol’ Beak has been coming on in the past 6 races, scoring the 16th most points. That isn’t a stat, that’s a fact, by the way. While they may not be able to slip one past the goalie for a win here, they could very well take a Top-10 spot from a Chaser.

Our Dark Horse for entertainment purposes? Robby Gordon, and y’all should know why. Not that I think he’ll finish well, he still has to make the show even, but provided he does he most certainly could provide a little bit of entertainment for the fans.

Written by Luke · Filed Under NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008 | 2 Comments

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