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The War Drums are Beating…

October 23, 2008

Mears pressing forward at Martinsville.

After the show last Sunday at Martinsville, the war drums have begun beating. Well, louder anyway. Can anyone stop Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the rest of the #48 team from streaking for a 3rd Championship in a row? Not to discount the effort, but it’s kind of like listening to the same song being played on the radio 100 times a day. Sure it was a treat in the beginning, but it gets old, and fast.

Apparently the television audience thought the same again this week, as the ratings were again lower than last year. Even though Jimmie Johnson pulled it out, with a mid to late stinking of the show, it was still a wail of a show. Bump bump… Coming through… and that was all day, including Saturday. But we’re not here to discuss that wacky Camping World Truck Series race. Not at all. What we’re here to discuss are the other 31 cars that were on the track at Martinsville, and will be out in full force at HotLanta this weekend.

Both Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurray had their loans at the Luck Bank called due. Honestly, I have no idea what happened to Kurt. He was there at the start, then he wasn’t. Finally caught that he was in the garage, thanks to the ol’ 454.000Mhz, but I missed out on the what.

Then Jamie got bit by the busted rear axle bug while running very strong inside the Top-10, pushing the Top-5. But hey, I have good news, and it has absolutely nothing to do with car insurance. Looks like a reunion with your buddy Donnie Wingo is in the cards. Now go drive the wheel off that thing.

Then there was Casey Mears. Casey put the hammer down, slammed that chrome horn, and brought it home with a very solid 6th place finish. Not bad at all there, “New Pop”, even though 3 of the Top-5 went to your teammates it was still one impressive run.

So now we’re rolling a little further south, down for some hot, fast laps at Atlanta. Or as we sometimes lovingly refer to it in the depths of Thunder Lounge, the fall test session for Texas.

So who are we going to get into the Top-10 here, that isn’t trying to dethrone Johnsonpalooza?

Roush cars typically run well here, and Jamie McMurray is out for justice. Speaking of being out for justice, look for Brian Vickers to make a play and possibly be in the Top-10 at the end of the day. After getting a massive switch to the butt from NASCAR yesterday, that whole organization is out to prove they’re legit.

Finally, my third selection for the upcoming weekend. I’m going to throw a bone to none other than the 2000 Winston Cup Champion, Bobby Labonte. He knows what he needs at this track, and his resume here is quite impressive and includes 6 wins. For this type of track, he’s rolling with 17 wins, 78 Top-5’s, and 119 Top-10’s. Even the Petty slump can’t keep his bite out of Georgia.

Dark horse? Throw the love to Beak. David Reutimann was pretty good at Martinsville. Until late trouble bit him, he’d been in the Top-10 all day.

Speaking of things MWR and Martinsville. I caught Mikey coming out the back of the Toyota Fan Experience by chance. A little boy all decked out in Mikey gear (hat, jacket and all) that couldn’t have been more then 7 saw him too. He took off on a dead beat run towards the golf cart as they began to pull away. As pressed for time as these drivers are these days, Mikey made them stop the cart, and he took the time to sign the boys jacket and give him a quick squeeze. The way that kids face lit up was priceless. While it’s not just Michael, this is a true representation of our sport at heart. Good people, who just happen to be blessed with making a living doing something most of us can only dream of.

So now that the heartburn is clearing up from all those famous Martinsville hotdogs, just in time to hit the barbecue in Texas next week, we find ourselves in anxious wait to see whether or not Goodyear brings the right tire to Atlanta this time, and whether or not we’ll have a show. Just in case the tire is off a bit, bring something better to the Lone Star state, okay guys?

Written by Luke · Filed Under Atlanta Motor Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, Texas Motor Speedway | 2 Comments 

The Biff May be a Stiff at Talladega

September 29, 2008

They say anything can happen - and anyone can win at Talladega Super Speedway.  I’m not buyin’ it.

I know that  ”Dega is supposed to be the “wild card”.  That I CAN buy because somebody - maybe several somebodies -  who are in Cup contention, or appear to be (there are a lot of “ors” in this conversation) will almost, for sure get caught up in an Alabama Big One and, by that fact, be able to blame their failure to win the 2008 Sprint Cup on something other than their own culpability.

I try to use useful statistics when writing these Chase posts.  But try as I might, I couldn’t find a stat that pointed me, specifically  towards those drivers who have most consistently participated in Talladega “Big Ones”.  Almost makes one think of conspiracy theories - but I don’t subscribe.

I can tell you, based upon NASCAR’s Loop data for the last seven races run at Talladega; of the 2008 Chase contenders, Greg Biffle sucks.  No offense meant Greg, but I’m guessing you’ve spent more than your share of time as a pinball than you would care to admit.  

Now the Biff has been as good as anyone in the first three Chase races and the top Roush-Fenway Racing cars - Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth - are stout.  But the best Loop rated Roushketeer at Talladega is  Jamie McMurray for cryin’ out loud!  McMurray’s Driver Rating is fourth best - 92.1 - compared to Biffle’s 68.0.

The only regular Cup series drivers with worse DR’s that Biffles’s are Casey Mears, David Gilliland, Robby Gordon, Dave Blaney and, surprisingly, Mark Martin.

Plate tracks are different animals.  The temptation is to discount Greg’s Talladega stats as “big one syndrome” or something.  He has been really good these first three Chase races.  But his loop stats for those races were very strong too.  Some drivers - and teams - do extremely well on the plate tracks.  The Earnhardts, Richard Childress Racing and DEI have dominated in the past.  Roush has not.  Biffle is not the pick this week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Talladega Superspeedway | Leave a Comment 

It’s a Biffle Bash

September 25, 2008

Wow. Who would have predicted anything close to what has transpired thus far in the 2008 Chase? Pipe down Marc, no you didn’t.

  • David Ragan: 18th, 1 lap down
  • Ryan Newman: Worked up to 13th. Too bad this isn’t Horseshoes.
  • David Reutimann: Had it, then a late pit error cost him a Top-10. After the penalty, he fought back to 17th. The first car 1 lap down.
  • Brian Vickers: Never a factor, finished 31st.

How about Mikey? Nice run there, fella. Were you mad at something? Try it again sometime, and you’ll beat that speed limit.

Speaking of the 31st, that’s Halloween you know. Anyone know where the best NASCAR Halloween Party is going to be? Keep an eye out as we clear the dust off of Thunder Lounge, and prep to throw a Texas sized party in the infield.

So we’re darn sure in Kansas now, Toto. All bets are off for this one.

Historically speaking, Kansas has been a track that has been kind to those not in the Chase. Even as recent as last year, Mr. “Last Two” here took home the victory in nothing less that what is still considered a fiasco of a race. Remember all the smoke about Stewart missing the Chase? He won here then, too.

Can the streak of Chaser victories end at 2?

He’s bit me twice, but finished 6th at the same track back in July. Well, OK, it’s different in name, but what’s the difference between a chocolate chip cookie and a double chocolate chip cookie? They’re both chocolate chip cookies. Brian Vickers stands a chance to take some points.

Is that “Kid” Martin racing this week? That sneeky ol’ cat can hang it out on such tracks as well.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Beak is coming. And he stands a fair chance of doing very well here.

If you’re looking at outside sneaking in, Ryan Newman or Elliott Sadler could pull a fast one and mix it up with the Top-10 as well.

Thus far, with 20% of the big enchilada gone by, it’s all Chasers, all the time. How about that Roush Sandwich that was made out of Jimmie Johnson, right before Jack Roush swept the Top 3 at Dover last weekend? Sandwich downed, how about those three Roushketeers mixing it up and battling for the win? This car has it’s moments, hopefully more to come.

What we have seen thus far this season, is the same thing we’ve seen most of the season leading up to the Chase. The guys in the Chase are the ones consistently running up front. Getting the Top-5’s and 10’s, and bagging the wins. But that wasn’t always the case, and with 31 other cars on the track, it’s 31 vs. 12, and they’re hungry for that win as well.

Written by Luke · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Nascar Chase 2008 | 1 Comment 

No Way No How No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire

September 8, 2008

NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set.  The pressure to get in the top twelve has passed.  If you’re in, the question is, can you win it all. 

And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races.  Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?

“That’s one of worst races I probably could have drove, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing.  I’m glad we’re in in a way, but in another way with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.” 

That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years.  Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I.  More from Matt…

“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville.  Our short track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason.  We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger track stuff seems to be running OK.”

I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt.  This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.

“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around – the teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can and that’s what they’ve done and it made an unbelievable difference.”

Did Reiser take away from the no. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edward’s no. 99 and Biffle’s no. 16?  Maybe and maybe not.  But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win.  He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week.  The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer.  Check it out and sign up to play.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different.  Martinsville on steroids is a popular description.  And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers.  David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway  Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon.  His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts.  As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.

Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower.  Juan Pablo Montoya - on a track that I think favors him - comes in at 63.4 in three races.

But what about the other contenders?  Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon.  Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier - 83.1.  Gordon’s Ave Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0. 

But the chemistry of Carl Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne- perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch - makes me think that this race will produce a better result.  If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond?  I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008 | 1 Comment