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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte - Coca Cola 600

The schedule this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is finally back to normal–in my mind at least. There will be a practice session held on Thursday afternoon and qualifying will be held later that night. Friday will be an off-day for the drivers, but Saturday they will get two practice sessions to perfect their cars for the big race on Sunday night. The Coca Cola 600 is the longest race (in terms of mileage) for the 2011 season, and Charlotte is definitely known for producing some very exciting racing.

During The Last Points-Paying Race At Charlotte…Kyle Busch led 217 laps but it was Jamie McMurray crossing the finish line first. Busch went on to follow him, and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Greg Biffle rounded out the top five. In last year’s spring race (the 2010 Coca Cola 600), the elder Busch brother (Kurt) led 252 laps after starting second and picked up his second–and ultimately final–win of the season. McMurray finished 2nd in that race, while Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann closed out the top five. McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to post top ten finishes in both races at Charlotte Motor Speedway during the two points-paying races in 2010. In last weekend’s All-Star Race, Carl Edwards won the $1 million dollar prize followed by Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Tony Stewart, and Greg Biffle.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Now that the schedule is back to normal, I would put a lot of emphasis on average practice speeds and ten-lap averages during the final two sessions to determine your rosters. Here’s how each driver did in practice last fall at Charlotte and how they finished. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards were both two of the fastest in average speed for the recent All-Star race, and one went on to win the race (Edwards) while Biffle finished 5th. Tony Stewart had the best ten-lap average during the All-Star practice and wound up finishing a solid 4th. Be sure to check out my practice breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com this week, as it will be more telling as to who has a good car than the recent ones have.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been pretty much untouchable all season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. As you know, Edwards won the All-Star Race last weekend, and while he’s not stellar at Charlotte by any means, he does have an average finish of 11.3 in points-paying races here. He finished 3rd at Texas and won at Las Vegas, so expect Edwards to fight for the win on Sunday night, especially after not getting the finish he deserved at Dover.

2. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has never won at Charlotte–and that includes All-Star Races. He is, however, on a seven-race streak of top 10s in points paying races at this track, and the only reason his average career finish here is so low (15.2) is because he wasn’t very good at this track early in his Sprint Cup career. The race is 600 miles on Sunday night (and that doesn’t include practice), so Kyle better hope that the Gibbs engine problem is solved or he will severely disappoint fantasy owners on Sunday night. Busch finished 2nd to Edwards in the All-Star Race last weekend.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has four straight top 10s at Charlotte and I fully expect that streak to continue this weekend. He finished 6th in the All-Star Race (out of 21) and has a little momentum after “stealing” a win in Dover. His driver rating at Charlotte over the past two years is fourth-best in the series, so Kenseth isn’t getting good finishes here just by dumb luck. He won here in 2000 and has finished outside of the top twenty just 6 times in his 23 career starts at this track.

4. Jimmie Johnson -In the eight points-paying races at Charlotte from 2003 to 2006, “Five Time” finished in the top three in every single race. His career average finish here is right around 9th and he owns six wins at this track. You probably wonder why–with those numbers–Jimmie isn’t ranked number one this week. Well, he didn’t run well at all in the All-Star Race (11th-place finish), and while I know that that race doesn’t particularly translate to how someone will run during the actual race, it’s still the same track. There has never been a points-paying race at Charlotte–that Johnson participated in–that he didn’t lead a lap, so expect JJ to challenge for the lead at least once on Sunday night.

5. Greg Biffle - Load up on the Roush Fords this weekend! They “Big Three” in that stable all looked great in the All-Star Race, and “The Biff” ended up 4th after starting 3rd. His career average finish at Charlotte is 15.5 and he finished 4th at Texas in April. Greg has never won here, but he does have six top 10s in his 16 career starts at this track. He’s been pretty good for the entire season this year, and if you take away some of the problems they had (like the fuel issue at Vegas), could easily be in the top eight in points.

6. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is either going to challenge for a top five on Sunday night, or he’s going to finish in the 30s. I don’t particularly like Red Bull Racing at Charlotte, but his teammate has found some success in that equipment. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is right around 13th and he won both races here in 2006. As long as his equipment holds up and nothing crazy happens to the #4 Toyota on Sunday night, a good finish should be expected.

7. Tony Stewart - It’s almost summer, and that’s the time when “Smoke” really starts running well. He finished a respectable 4th in the All-Star Race last weekend, and Tony hasn’t posted a top ten finish in the last six points-paying races at Charlotte, I could easily see that changing this weekend. He has one win here–that came in 2003–and Stewart’s career average finish at this track is 12.2. Watch Stewart’s average speed during practice, as well as his ten-lap average. If he’s near the top in both of those, stick him on your roster.

8. Jeff Gordon - Gordon hasn’t had a top ten since Talladega, so this ranking may be a bit high. If he practices just decent or even below-average, avoid him this week. I don’t like how Gordon is running this season, and pretty much the only time I will take him is if he surprises me in practice. At Charlotte, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six races and owns a career average finish right around 15th–including five wins. In his twenty career top 10s at this track, sixteen have been top 5s, so expect a really strong run or a disappointing finish out of Gordon this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin - Like I said before, the Gibbs stable better hope that their engines can last for the longest race of the season. Hamlin’s career average finish at Charlotte is 14.6 and he finished 4th here in the fall after ending up 18th in 2010’s Coca Cola 600. The former has been his best finish ever here (All-Star Race included), so don’t expect Hamlin to challenge for the win, but a top ten is possible. He ended up 7th in the All-Star Race last weekend out of 21.

10. Kevin Harvick - I really didn’t know how to rank Harvick this week, so this is probably going to be one of the drivers that will either go way up or way down when I make my post-qualifying predictions. He finished 11th and 8th in the two Charlotte races during the 2010 season, but that was last year when he was having a remarkable season overall. His career average finish at this track is 17.2, but you never know where “The Closer” will end up when it’s all said and done. He finished 9th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

11. Mark Martin - I’m still not liking how Martin is running this season, which is why I have him ranked 11th. He has been good here recently, with a worst finish of 17th over the past four races, but I just don’t see him doing anything spectacular on Sunday night. Martin’s average finish over the course of career at Charlotte Motor Speedway has been right around 15th, and I think he will finish between 11th and 15th on Sunday night.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finished 2nd at Texas in April and has two top 10s in his past three starts at Charlotte. His best finish here came in 2007 when he finished 2nd and Clint finished 2nd in the All-Star Race last weekend after starting 2nd. A finish between 12th and 15th is likely for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cracked the top ten. He has six top 10s in the last seven races of the year, so he definitely has momentum on his side.

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Logano’s best track, but I don’t think that he will finish as good as his career average finish (6.9). He has three top 10s in his four career starts at Charlotte with a worst finish of 13th, which came last year in the Coca Cola 600. With the way his season has been going, I probably won’t pick him this week, but you can’t go against Joey’s history at this track. He finished 5th in the Showdown last weekend.

14. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s season has to turn around eventually..right? He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season, and while I don’t think that he will repeat anywhere near that on Sunday night, this is his third-best track on the circuit (with an average finish of 15th) and a top fifteen is definitely possible. Be sure to watch the #1 Chevy in practice. McMurray finished 17th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

15. David Reutimann - Statistically, this is Reutty’s best track, so he should definitely be in the back of your mind all week. He won 2009’s Coca Cola 600 (although it was rain-shortened) and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since then, including 5th and 9th-place efforts last season. He finished 3rd in the All-Star Race out of 21.

Underdogs Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Regan Smith - Statistically, Charlotte is Smith’s second-best track, and he hasn’t been too terrible for being a C-list driver in Yahoo! He finished 13th here last fall after a 19th-place effort in last year’s Coca Cola 600, and in Regan’s four career starts here, his worst finish has been 23rd.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose usually races very well in the Showdown races, but that success doesn’t translate to actual points-paying races. He finished 4th at Las Vegas and 6th at Texas, though, so make sure you watch the #9 Ford in practice.

David Ragan - I really like how Ragan is racing this season and his car looked great when he won the Showdown last weekend. The #6 Ford wound up 8th in the All-Star Race, ahead of Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson. In the last six points-paying races at this track, David has three top 10s and he finished 7th at Texas in April.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two finishes of 5th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but he’s pretty inconsistent–and Red Bull Racing is as well. He has three top tens in the last four races, and if he has a good car on Sunday night, Brian could make that four of five.

Those To Avoid Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior just isn’t very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He looked average in both the Showdown and the All-Star Race, and Little E hasn’t posted a top ten in a points-paying race here since early 2008. Over the past two years, drivers such as Casey Mears, Scott Speed, and Robby Gordon have better average finishes than Earnhardt at this track. Robby Gordon! Pass on the 88 this weekend. He finished 14th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Jeff Burton - In the last four points-paying races at Charlotte, Jeff Burton has posted three finishes in the 20s. Those finishes aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships, so stay away from him this week. I would say a mid-teens finish for Burton this week would be the best that he could do.

Kurt Busch - I understand that Kurt Busch was very solid here last spring, but it seems like week in and week out lately the “double deuce” isn’t running up to potential. He’s either really good here or really bad, but and the only way I would recommend him this week would be if he qualified up front and looked great in practice. Kurt finished 13th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski - BK has had a couple of good races recently at Darlington and Dover, but I’m going to wait a while until I really believe that the chemistry between him and crew chief Paul Wolfe will translate to a bunch of success in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski finished 20th and 27th at the two Charlotte races in 2010. He finished 18th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas - Samsung Mobile 500

The Sprint Cup Series heads to “The Great American Speedway” in Texas this weekend for the first night race of the season. The green flag is set to wave around 7:30 eastern time on Saturday night after a practice session and qualifying is held on Friday afternoon. The first of the two practice sessions this weekend is set to be run on Thursday at 5 o’clock eastern time. Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile quad oval similar to Charlotte Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are really very few drivers that are consistently up front here, so picking for a race like this can sometimes be difficult.

During The Last Race at Texas…Denny Hamlin started 30th but wound up winning the race here in November after leading 31 laps. Greg Biffle had the most laps led that day with 224; he ended up finishing 5th. Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Joey Logano filled in the space between Hamlin and Biffle in the finishing order. During the spring race here in 2010, Hamlin also found victory lane after starting 29th and leading just 12 laps. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five that day. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle were the only drivers to record top ten finishes in both races at Texas Motor Speedway in 2010.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The cars from Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have the best average finish here over the past two years, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of the Hendrick Motorsports boys. You can’t overlook Roush-Fenway Racing when the series comes to these intermediate tracks but they haven’t won here since 2008 when Carl Edwards swept both races. Usually those who start near the front finish there, but as Denny Hamlin showed in both races last year, it is not necessary to be fast in qualifying to visit victory lane. If you are wondering how important average practice speed is at Texas, click here for the results of the fall race last year with the drivers ranked on how fast they were in practice.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

1. Kevin Harvick - I said in the off-season that everyone should jump off of Harvick’s bandwagon while they could, but it looks like I need to jump back on (read that story by clicking here). The #29 Chevrolet was junk for 80% of the race in Martinsville but they got it dialed in late and Harvick wound up winning the race. He really is living up to his nickname of “The Closer.” At Texas, Kevin has made 16 career starts and owns an average finish of 12.4 with a best finish of 5th. I think he has a great shot to better that this week, as he has had super fast cars at most of the races this year–including two weeks ago at Las Vegas. He’s only led five laps here in his career, but it’s the last lap that counts, as Harvick should know by now. His past three finishes here have been 6th, 7th, and 5th.

2. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is actually really, really good at this track and he’s on a roll this year, with three straight finishes of 6th or better and no finish lower than 11th since Daytona. He finished 20th in the spring race here last season, but before that he was on a streak of six straight top 10s, and he turned around and finished runner-up in the fall race. In seventeen starts at this track, Kenseth has recorded 11 top tens (including one win) and has an average finish of 9.5. He’s finished runner-up at this track four times.

3. Denny Hamlin - His teammate, Kyle Busch, says that Joe Gibbs Racing has found the cause of their engine problems, and this week will be a good one to test that statement. As I said before, Hamlin won both races at Texas in 2010 and has an average finish of 4th over his past four starts at this track. He’s finished outside of the top 20 only once in eleven tries here, and that is evident by his career average finish of 8.8. After last week’s heartbreaker and with the engine problems Gibbs has had this year, Hamlin could be a risky pick, but as the saying goes, “high risk, high reward.”

4. Jimmie Johnson - For the last three years, “Five Time” has finished 2nd in the first race held at Texas Motor Speedway. Can he continue that streak this weekend? It’s surely possible, especially with how strong he was at Fontana. In fifteen starts at this track, Johnson has amassed eleven top 10s, including one win in 2007. He’s also finished outside of the top 15 just twice in his career at this track, so expect another solid day out of “The Champ” on Saturday night.

5. Greg Biffle -Over the past four races at this track, “The Biff” has the best average driver rating in the series and the third-best average finish (6.5). He’s on a five-race streak of top 10s at this 1.5-mile racetrack and he won here in 2005. He started 3rd and 2nd at Texas in 2010 so expect a good qualifying effort out of Biffle on Friday as well. He’s struggled a bit at these intermediates thus far in 2011, but I expect that to change on Saturday.

6. Tony Stewart - The Stewart-Haas cars have been really strong on the intermediate tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. “Smoke” won here in 2006 and has an average finish of 13.2 in eighteen career starts at this track. In the last seven races at Texas, Stewart has just one finish outside of the top 20, and it will take a wreck or mechanical failure for that number to be two after this weekend’s race.

7. Kurt Busch - Last week, Kurt finished 16th in Martinsville after being a 30th-place car for much of the afternoon. I don’t expect the “Double Deuce” to be a 30th-place car this weekend, so a top ten can be expected on Saturday. Kurt has struggled at this racetrack here and there, but he has three top tens in his past four starts and a career average finish of 13.8. He won the fall race in 2009.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Little E has been running great this season and hasn’t finished worse than 12th since Daytona. He’s struggled at Texas recently–with just one top ten (8th last season) in the past eight races here–but this is the track where he got his first Sprint Cup series win. With another strong car this weekend, Junior might find victory lane and finally end his winless streak. He should have a good qualifying effort on Friday, too, as his average start at this track is around 10th.

9. Kyle Busch - This ranking will probably prove to be too low once it’s all said and done, so look for Shrub to move up when I post my predictions on Friday. Last fall, Busch had a fast car but, in case you don’t remember, he was penalized two laps for flipping off a NASCAR official and finished 32nd. Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race last season, and that is his best finish at this track. If you think his engine will last all race, Rowdy probably won’t be too bad of a pick this weekend.

10. Ryan Newman - As I said before, the Stewart-Haas cars have hit on something at these intermediate races this year. Newman isn’t the first driver I think of when the series comes to these tracks, but he finished 5th in Las Vegas last month as well as in Fontana a couple weeks ago. “The Rocketman” won at this track in 2003, and while his best finish is 11th while driving for Stewart-Haas at this track, that could easily change this weekend. His average finish in the past two years at Texas is 14.5.

11. Carl Edwards - Edwards isn’t as consistent at this track as he is at other intermediates, but he’s won here three times and you can never overlook the 99 here. He hasn’t finished better than 10th here since his wins in 2008, but Carl is having a great season so it’s very possible that he turns his luck around at this track. He won in Las Vegas and had just a decent car at Fontana but still got a 6th-place finish. If he looks good in practice, expect Cousin Carl to move up when I make my predictions on Friday.

12. Mark Martin - This team is lacking something this year, and until they get it figured out, I won’t be very high on Martin. He hasn’t finished worse than 6th at Texas in his past four starts here and has an average finish of 12.4 in his career here. I think Martin will be a mid-teens driver on Saturday night, with a small shot at a finish around 10th if he can get lucky.

13. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made ten starts at this track and owns five top 10s and an average finish of 14.5. He’s finished 7th, 7th, and 4th in past three fall races at Texas, so you might want to wait until November when the series visits this track again to pick him. Bowyer has two top tens in a row now, though, so he looks to be climbing out of the hole that he dug himself in earlier this season. He ended up 7th in Fontana.

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex qualifies in the top ten on Friday, expect a good race from him on Saturday. He finished 6th at Las Vegas after qualifying 9th and has top ten finishes in every race that he has qualified there at Texas. Martin’s average finish here is 16.1 and, as always, be cautious if you pick him this weekend because he is always a risky pick.

15. David Ragan - David got his first top ten of the season last week in Martinsville (who expected that?) and could get his second on Saturday, although I would say a top fifteen is more likely. In eight starts at Texas, Ragan has three finishes of 37th or worse, but in the other five races he hasn’t finished worse than 17th. David ended up 15th and 8th at this track in 2010.

Underdogs Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose hasn’t been terrible this year at the intermediates and has found success at this track. He’s made five starts here and has just one finish worse than 21st. Last year he finished 17th and 12th at Texas and had a super fast Ford at Las Vegas a month ago.

Trevor Bayne - With Bayne running a limited schedule, this is an excellent place to use him in allocation leagues. He made his Sprint Cup debut here last fall and posted a respectable 17th-place finish. The Daytona 500 winner finished 20th at Las Vegas, and I think he will be right around there this weekend with the possibility of a top fifteen.

A.J. Allmendinger - I like him better at the flat tracks, but Allmendinger has found success at the intermediate tracks as well. He finished 14th at Fontana and ended up 19th at Las Vegas. The ‘Dinger hasn’t finished worse than 14th at Texas in his past three starts here and has been quietly having a very consistent season.

Paul Menard - As you know, these are the tracks that Menard excels at, so it’s a good idea to keep him in the back of your mind when the series comes to the intermediates. He got a 10th-place finish here last fall and in the two races at intermediate tracks this season, Menard had finishes of 16th and 12th.

Those To Avoid Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two top tens on the intermediates this year, so he may surprise me this weekend, but his average finish at Texas is 23.8 and he hasn’t finished better than 16th here since 2007. His best result at this track came in his first start, and that was 12th.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” posted a top five at Texas in the fall last year, but his next best finish is 19th. With the way this young man’s season has been going, I’d wait until he has a few good races before taking Logano.

Jeff Gordon - Gordon won here in 2009, and while he has nine top 10s in his twenty starts at this track, he also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. He hasn’t been impressive at the intermediates this season, either, ending up 36th at Las Vegas and 18th at Fontana. There are better choices than the #24 this week.

Brad Keselowski - His teammate, Kurt Busch, may have found success at Texas in the “Blue Deuce,” but I doubt that BK will. He finished 14th here last spring but his career average finish is right around 25th. He won’t be any good for qualifying bonus points, either, as Keselowski has never started better than 35th at this track.

Hopefully you like night races because we’re entering a streak of them. Over the next four races, three of them will be held on Saturday night. Be sure to check out my post-qualifying race predictions on Friday over at ifantasyrace.com and if you’re looking for a good place to chat with other fans during the race, check out NASCAR Nation.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: California - Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile “D-shaped” oval that is most similar to Michigan International Speedway. One difference between the two is that the track is Michigan has a little bit more banking than the one in California. Two hundred laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, making it just 400 miles from start to finish. The last fall race here in Fontana was the first that went just 200 laps (they usually go 250 when they visit Fontana). There is originally two races here during the Sprint Cup season, but schedule changes have taken away the October race in 2011–to the elation of many. The previous nine races held at this track have gone their scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At California…The lead changed hands many times last October (fourteen racers led) but it was Tony Stewart who crossed the finish line first. Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson started seventh and led 101 laps in route to his first victory of the season. Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished second and third, followed by Mark Martin and Joey Logano.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The time to take major chances was last week in Bristol. This week, you should go with the favorites and maybe sprinkle in a “surprise” pick if they look good on Friday and Saturday (like Marcos Ambrose at Las Vegas Motor Speedway). Qualifying is important, but don’t put a bunch of emphasis on it. In the two races at Auto Club Speedway in 2010, fourteen of the twenty top ten finishers started outside of the top ten. Last fall, average practice speeds weren’t too telling either. Click here for the results of the October race (they are sorted in order from fastest to slowest in average practice speed with their result underneath). During the last race here there were many pit road speeding violations, and those can mess up a roster real quick.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Auto Club 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson - This shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone–Jimmie Johnson owns this track. He’s made sixteen career starts in Fontana and his worst finish is 16th. In those sixteen races, Johnson owns eleven top three finishes and his career average finish here is 5.3. Over the past two years, the 48 Chevrolet had had an astounding 134.4 average driver rating at California. With five career wins at California–two of them coming in the last three races–Johnson should be a lock this weekend for everyone.

2. Carl Edwards - Nobody has been on more of a hot streak lately as Cousin Carl. He finished off the 2010 season with two straight wins and has finished in the top two in three of the four races this season. If he wouldn’t have had the wreck in Phoenix, that number just may be four-for-four. Edwards wasn’t great in Fontana last season–posting finishes of 13th and 34th–but it’s hard to go against someone who is running as well as Carl is. In thirteen career races at California, Edwards owns ten top seven finishes, and that includes one win (coming in 2008).

3. Tony Stewart - Since Stewart-Haas Racing was formed in 2009, “Smoke” has finished in the top ten in every race at California. He is the most recent winner here and looked awesome at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (even though that isn’t exactly like Auto Club Speedway). In nineteen career starts at this track, Stewart has amassed eleven top 10s. He was running pretty good at Bristol until he ran into his teammate, Ryan Newman, and I think Tony will be back up front this week.

4. Matt Kenseth - Roush-Fenway Racing–as well as all Fords in general–have been so fast to start the season that it’s hard to go against them at their “bread and butter” tracks. Kenseth has an average finish of 10.3 at Auto Club Speedway and from 2005 to 2009 he rattled off eight straight top 10s. Over that span, he collected three wins and never finished worse than 7th. Most of the Roush cars had engine difficulties last time the series was at Fontana, but as long as that doesn’t happen this weekend, it should be a perfect race to load up on the Roushkateers.

5. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had a top ten car in Las Vegas but engine problems made him retire early that day. He also had an engine problem in the October race at California, but he knows how to get around this track when he has a good car. Busch won here in 2005 and went on to record seven straight top tens after that. He hasn’t led a bunch of laps here, though, so don’t expect to see Kyle fighting for the lead all day. I love picking Kyle Busch after a win and this week is no exception. Joe Gibbs Racing engines have been hit-or-miss this year, though, so proceed with caution when selecting Busch.

6. Jeff Gordon - It was a great recovery for Gordon last October at Auto Club Speedway: he had a speeding penalty late and rallied back for a 9th-place finish. Jeff has won here three times and over the course of his career (21 races) he has an average finish of around 11th. He’s a little hit-or-miss at Fontana lately, though: in the last nine races he has four top three finishes, but he also has three finishes outside of the top fifteen over that span. Gordon has led at least one lap in each of the past six races held at California.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother hasn’t been as flashy as Carl Edwards this season, but he has been the most consistent driver in the series thus far, and he is coming into a track where he has one win and owns an average finish of 12.7. Three of the past four races in Fontana have ended with Kurt Busch in the top ten, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen this weekend. He finished 21st here in April, but the entire Penske stable looked average at best all weekend. In 17 career starts at Auto Club Speedway, Kurt has finished on the lead lap in 14 of them.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has never finished outside of the top 20 at California, and he needs a good run to kick-start his season. He didn’t look great at Las Vegas, which is part of the reason I have him ranked a little low, but Clint has been solid at California lately. His last three starts have netted him finishes of 2nd, 8th, and 9th. Bowyer has led just 44 laps in ten starts at Fontana, so don’t expect a dominating performance, but he is capable of getting a top ten. With the way his luck has been going this year, some people will hold off for a while on picking the #33, but if he has a good run on Sunday, you can gain a bunch of points on the competition.

9. Greg Biffle - As surprising as it may seem, “The Biff” actually isn’t as good at California as many would expect him to be. He has won here, but other than that he has been extremely hit-or-miss: in sixteen starts at Auto Club Speedway, Biffle has amassed four top fives but ten finishes 15th or worse. He had a dominant car at Las Vegas, though, which is really the only similar race you can go off of from this year, and all of the Fords have looked fast this season. It’s a risky pick, but it’s hard to go against the Roush-Fenway Fords at the intermediate tracks.

10. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is on a streak of three top 10s at California and has finished outside of the top 20 just once in his past nine starts at this track. He’s not great by any means here, though: Harvick’s career average finish is 17.1 and he had just four top 10s in his first fourteen career starts at Fontana. He may continue his streak of good finishes here, but it is certainly possible that he ends up with a teens finish on Sunday like he did at Las Vegas.

11. Paul Menard - Okay, I’ll hop onto the Paul Menard bandwagon this week. He’s had career-best finishes in every single race this season (seriously), so why not another one at Auto Club Speedway? Menard finished 18th here in the spring last year and that is his top finish in eight starts at this track. Everything is going right for this young man this season and unless you see his luck running out this week, he should be a good darkhorse pick this week. These intermediate tracks were the ones he was best on last season. Menard had 11th and 12th-place runs at Michigan while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

12. Kasey Kahne - Kasey was the surprise of the race for me in October at this track. He posted a fourth-place finish and a driver rating of 106.2. He’s had two 34th-place finishes at Fontana recently, but his other five races in that span have been top 12s. Kahne’s average finish at Auto Club Speedway is 15.4 and his average start is around 10th. He won here in 2006 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. Scott Speed drove the #82 car (basically the #4 car that Kahne is in now) to an 11th-place finish here last season.

13. Mark Martin - I said don’t pick Martin last week and regretted that after he posted a 12th-place finish in “Thunder Valley”. He’s not having a terrible season (he sits 11th in points) but I don’t think his is racing up to potential yet. Martin has finished 6th, 4th, and 4th in his last three starts at Fontana, but I don’t expect him to finish there this weekend. Mark’s average finish here is 13.3 and I think that is closer to where he will end up on Sunday.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior didn’t have a great race like I expected at Bristol last week, but he still posted a solid 11th-place finish. He’s not good at California by any means (22.3 career average finish) but I love picking him when he is on a roll, and he has been consistent every race after Daytona this year. He has won at Michigan–the track most similar to Fontana–and he had a 2nd-place finish here in 2006. I’m not going to guarantee a top ten finish this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Junior finished 8th at Las Vegas and ended up 16th at the last race here after starting 9th.

15. Denny Hamlin - It might just be me, but Hamlin has been quietly average this season. His best finish so far in 2011 came in Las Vegas when he drove from the back of the pack to grab a top ten. Other than that race, I haven’t been impressed by the driver that won eight races in 2010. Hamlin has been hit-or-miss at Auto Club Speedway lately with three top 10s in the past six races but also three finishes 29th or worse in that span. Be cautious when picking Hamlin this week. His career average finish here is 17.2.

Underdogs Entering The Auto Club 400:

Brian Vickers - Red Bull Racing seems like they either bring top ten cars to these intermediate tracks or 25th-place cars. Last spring at California, Vickers finished 12th–right behind his then-teammate, Scott Speed. Brian hasn’t looked overly impressive this season, but he finished 10th at Las Vegas and six finishes in the top 12 over his past seven starts at California.

David Ragan - Like I said, don’t go against the Roushkateers on intermediates. Ragan could have won the pole at Vegas but spun in qualifying and finished 22nd after starting in the back. In his first six starts at Auto Club Speedway, Ragan never finished worse than 17th, but last year he finished 32nd and 23rd. I expect him to get back on track this weekend and could pull off a surprise top ten.

Marcos Ambrose - The only reason I’m listing him as an underdog is because of how well he ran at Las Vegas. Ambrose has never finished better than 22nd at Auto Club Speedway, but Kasey Kahne drove this #9 Ford to a top five finish the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited this track. Keep your eye on Marcos this weekend.

David Reutimann - It seems like the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas are either great cars or they fall of during the race and finish around 20th. Reutimann finished 13th in Las Vegas and posted 10th and 15th-place efforts at Fontana in 2010. In eight career starts here, Reutty has four top 15s, with two of them being top 10s.

Those To Avoid Entering The Auto Club 400:

Jeff Burton - Not only is he having absolutely no luck this season but Burton is also decent at best at Auto Club Speedway. He finished 3rd here last February but that is his only top ten in the last five races here. Wait until the #31 Chevrolet has (at least) a decent run before even thinking about picking him.

Joey Logano - Joey’s average finish here is 14th but, like Burton, he seems to be having problems each week, whether it be an engine problem or a loose wheel. Go ahead and pick the #20 if you want, but he has burned me too many times in 2011 to recommend him right now.

Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac is also having terrible luck this season, but even if he wasn’t I wouldn’t recommend him at Fontana. He won both poles last year but led only 14 laps and finished 17th in both races. He hasn’t had a top ten here since 2006 and his average finish since then has been 22.8.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex looked like his normal self last week, being hit-or-miss. He had a good run in the beginning of the race but fell back. Martin finished 6th at Las Vegas, which will make some people look at him this week, but his average finish at California is 21.2 and he hasn’t had a top fifteen finish here since 2008.

If you had a bad week at Bristol, don’t worry: so did I. Just shrug it off because that track is a tricky one to predict. This week should be easier. Be sure to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and check out NASCAR Nation–there are many great members there to chat about racing with!

One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing News: Shelby 427

don’t tell me you watched the academy awards? Race two is a wrap. The California race was long. And wet. And a good reason to use the remote. Eleven left in the One and Done Spring Thing - the first of three games in the 2009 One and Done season. We’ll finish this one at the race in Dover. Then, you win stuff and cinch those belts back up and do it again for thirteen more races. You get more prizes and then play the grand finale - the Chase for the One and Done Cup. So tell your friends to sign up. After all, you’re a veteran at this now.

race 3: the shelby 427 Welcome to the home of the Rat Pack,bad Robert De niro movies and the  Busch brothers of NASCAR. Four players picked Auto Club 500 winner Matt Kenseth last week and those guys are all near the top of the points.  Good job  - you lucky dogs. Who ‘ya gonna take this week, when Matty might just set a record for winning the first three One and Done races in history.? He might set a NASCAR record too. You can view all the results for One and Done week two here. next week: hot’lanta Lets talk prizes.  You all should know that the winner of the One and Done Spring Thing will receive a Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure package, good at several NASCAR tracks, including Talladega Superspeedway. You can read the experience of one of our past winners at that track right here. The top ten finishers will win prizes in each game. I will have the details on those other prizes finalized this week. I think you’ll be happy with the possibilities. Stay tuned. We’re also considering having a weekly prize, so that new players or players who miss making a pick for whatever reason, will still have a chance to win something. If we do the weekly award, it will be determined via the random drawing method.

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experts Every week we’ll ask a few folks from around the NASCAR internet community to share who they think would be a good pick for the next race. Dustin Long NASCAR beat writer for the  Landmark Newspapers likes the Biff. ” Got a feeling for Greg Biffle  as the winner. Roush makes it 3 in a row. Also, keep an eye on the #48. Let’s see how the #88 responds also.” Veteran ARCA RE/MAX Series driver Brad Smith thinks it’s cousin Carl this time…”I just think the #99 is due. He’s been good and I just have a feeling that this is his week.” Fast and Fabulous Valli is in the #24’s corner…”I think Jeff Gordon will take the win at LVMS because after coming close to the win in California, he was passionate, excited and pumped up about his team’s potential. I think a win for him is just around the corner.” Backstretch Motorsports’ Bram is a history buff…” This week at Vegas will Matt Kenseth get #3?…if he does he’ll be defying an awful lot of odds stacked against him in the history books. But it’s time for another new record to be written and this team has been on fire, so I say Kenseth gets his name in the record books and leaves Vegas with the jackpot.” Thunder Lounge king Luke remembers last year… “Ah Vegas. A city that seemingly has everything. While it doesn’t have Shakespeare’s this year it has another Columbia favorite on loan. Carl Edwards. When the tough get going Sunday, he’ll be out to prove that his oil lid is locked down tight.”

NASCAR Fans–Do You Believe in Miracles

Bobby Labonte holds the only win at Homestead-Miami Speedway in a Chevrolet, while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.

The only Dodge win in the short history of the south Florida track come from the unlikely source of Bill Elliott. Elliott only won four races for Evernham Racing after resurrecting the brand in NASCAR.  Tony Stewart picked off the first two wins ever at HMS in Pontiacs.

The majority of wins have come from the Blue Oval Boys.  Fords of Jack Roush have won five of the nine races.  Kurt Busch started the winning in 2002.  Greg Biffle “owns” Homestead with three consecutive wins in ‘04 through ‘06; while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.  While Roush drivers have been celebrating race wins over the last three years at the finale; they have had to watch Jimmy Johnson revel in his championships.

Jack Roush would like nothing better than to be able to celebrate a championship and a race win for Carl Edwards. It’s the long shot of all long shots to believe that JJ can’t pull off a 36th place finish.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Have a cigar, Jimmie Johnson. Go ahead, seriously. This year’s Chase is as good as over, and it’s your team that’s on top. All it takes is a 36th-place finish, and your fate is sealed as the first three-time champion since Cale Yarborough three decades ago.

In other words, thanks for taking the fun out of the Chase. (Just kidding.)

So we’re headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the Sprint Cup season finale, after which NASCAR’s stars take a two-month break from their day jobs. Homestead is typically a Roush Fenway Racing-dominated track, as their cars have won every race here since the Chase’s inception. Greg Biffle won in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and Matt Kenseth won last year.

Here’s how each of the 12 Chase drivers will do this week at Homestead:

1. Jimmie Johnson: He’ll just be trying to survive and wrap up that third title. Anything more than playing it safe will be a bonus.

2. Carl Edwards: If anything happens to Johnson (and even if it doesn’t), you can bet Cousin Carl will be gunning for the win at all times. If Johnson blows up on lap one and he leads the most laps and wins, the title’s his. With no more races left in the season, he might as well go for it.

3. Greg Biffle: Too bad Da Biff’s not still in the title hunt. This is by far his best track, and a three-man shootout between Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle would’ve been fun to watch.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s worst finish here with Roush was 14th in five starts. With RCR, his best finish is 8th (last year), with two finishes of 25th or worse in four starts. He won’t be as good in this car as he would be were he still at Roush.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t finished worse than 20th all Chase or at Homestead for his career. He hasn’t won since the 2007 Daytona 500, so don’t expect a win, but Harvick should be up towards the front to finish off the season.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only made two starts here, so it’s hard to tell based on his past experience, especially when his finishes are 10th and 39th. He’s been between 5th and 20th all Chase, though, so expect that to repeat.

7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon hasn’t had a winless season since his rookie year in 1993. While he’s never won at Homestead, he’s only finished worse than 10th twice in nine starts. He’s got nothing to lose by going for the victory. Then again, after qualifying 37th, he’ll have a ways to go.

8. Matt Kenseth: Roush car? Check. Defending race winner? Check. Trying to avoid a big fat zero in the win column for the year? Check. Kenseth’s going to push hard this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin: Here’s the real battle: the battle for the last seats at the end-of-season banquet. 9th through 12th places are separated by 31 points, and Hamlin leads the pack. If 3rd-place finishes each of the past two years mean anything, he’ll stay in the top 10.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior’s best finish at Homestead is 13th in his rookie season, and his average finish is 21.2 in eight starts. He’ll have to improve on that if he wants a seat at the banquet in December.

11. Kyle Busch: If anyone deserves to be on stage in New York this December, it’s a guy who completely ran away with the regular season. Too bad Busch’s track record at Homestead includes a best finish of 20th and an average finish of 33.0.

12. Tony Stewart: Cheers for ten great years with the Gibbs organization, Tony, and here’s to ten more with your own. I don’t expect you to do much this weekend, but enough to claim that final seat in New York for JGR.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Any of the Roush cars. Biffle’s got the track record, Kenseth’s defending the win from last year, and Edwards is going to do whatever it takes to set himself up for a title if Johnson falters. Bet on Edwards, with the others close behind, a la the Dover race a couple months ago.

Image credit: Icon Sports Media

Roush Fenway Fords Enjoy November Sun in Homestead

While only winning the championship in 2004, the Roush Fenway Fords are dominant at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Greg Biffle won this race three years running and Matt Kenseth capped off the season one year ago with a win. To add to the fun for the Cat in the Hat, Carl Edwards has a very good record here and David Ragan has a top 10 in his first start here last year. For Roush, those are good odds.

The championship is obviously the big story at Homestead, but every year the margin of victory is getting larger. From the incredible drama of Kurt Busch’s 2004 season to Tony Stewart’s and Jimmie Johnson’s solid if unspectacular runs in the years following, the championship chase is still must-watch television and the redesigned Homestead track deserves a lot of the credit. This year almost certainly promises to see Johnson do what only Cale Yarborough has done in NASCAR’s top series unless something freakish happens to the normally unflappable #48 team.

Paging David Gilliland, remember where your engines come from… anyway, lets get a look at the numbers.

The winners:
2007 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Greg Biffle
2005 – Greg Biffle
2004 – Greg Biffle

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 7th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 9th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 15th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

Let’s see, let me find a Roush Fenway driver that has had the best season this and won on similar 1.5 mile tracks… oh yeah, if you’re not anticipating Carl Edwards leading nearly every lap and winning this thing Sunday night, I’ll take whatever odds there are for the race. Aside from Edwards, Biffle does have a track record of winning here and could easily do it again.

The two sleepers I’ve pegged for this race are Ragan and Jamie McMurray. Both drivers have performed admirably in the final stretch of the year. The season finale always produces surprises, it should be interesting to see what happens this year. Among the one-off entrants are Brad Keselowski and Mark Martin, and the end of A.J. Allmendinger’s run in the #10.

Finally, it’s been a pleasure to write this weekly column for On Pit Row. I want to thank Steve and Charlie for all of their hard work and I look forward to continuing my contributions to the Bench Racing blog. Journey provides the season finale with the classic karaoke song Don’t Stop Believin’. YouTube is your friend. This won’t be like the Sopranos finale when the music just stops before the

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Phoenix International Raceway

Sorry, guys. For some reason, I thought I posted my column last week, but when I looked for it here on the site, it was mysteriously not there. I picked the winner correctly, I called everybody but Jimmie Johnson irrelevant (oh, how wrong I was), and I even made reference to Tommy Tutone when I wrote about Denny Hamlin. So, of course, my best work goes for naught when I don’t actually end up putting it up for the world to see. (Then again, now I can recycle my “Denny, Denny, who can I turn to” next year.)

In other words, it looks like I had a massive brain fart. Or, as Jack Roush would suggest, I’ve had my “mulligan” for the Chase. Just read the best nine columns out of ten, right?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Phoenix:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Best average finish of every driver at Phoenix, incredible Chase, last guy to win here, blah, blah, blah. Johnson’s run last week, while not catastrophic, left the door open for Edwards. Then again, don’t be surprised if Jimmie comes through in the clutch. That’s what Team 48 does.

2. Carl Edwards: Carl’s average finish of 14.5 is negatively affected by the 42nd place he had at this race last year, when his engine let go in the first half of the race. That can’t happen again. Carl’s got a lot of momentum from the past two weeks, and he has a chance at winning four in a row and mimicking Johnson’s huge run at the end of last year. Given his record at Phoenix when things go right (5 top-10s), it’s definitely possible.

3. Greg Biffle: Da Biff is painfully average overall at Phoenix, with an average finish of 16.4, but the finishes themselves are often polarized. Biffle has two 2nd place finishes at the track, as well as two finished of 34th place or lower. The question is simply whether the team will have one of the former or the latter come race day. With the way the team’s been since the debacle at Talladega, look for the former.

4. Jeff Burton: Betcha didn’t know that JB’s got two wins here. It’s true - he won this race in 2000 and 2001. Betcha also had no idea that Burton’s worst finish at Phoenix in the past decade is 15th in fall 2005. His 11.1 average finish here is in the top five of all active drivers. There’s no reason he can’t pull off another decent finish.

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s only win at Phoenix was here in 2007, but he still has an average finish of 8.5. Here’s to hoping he wins this weekend, if only because winning at least once every year since 1994 is a huge accomplishment. His average finish of 8.5 is second only to Johnson.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer made his Cup debut at Phoenix, finishing 22nd in the spring of 2005. Since then, he’s only failed to complete eight laps at the track, and has two top-5s, including a 2nd place this spring. The team is a far cry from where they were at this time last year, but a 4th at Texas last week proves that they’re still capable of top finishes.

7. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t won at Phoenix since sweeping in 2006, but he’s also been a solid contender for the past few years. Since the spring of 2006, his average finish is an astounding 7.6 with four top-10s. Then again, Harvick’s only spent 23 laps at the front of the field all Chase, so don’t count on a momentum-based win.

8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 18.8 is due to an extreme polarization of finishes. When he’s good (a win in 2002, six top-10s), he’s good. When he’s bad (five finishes of 32nd or worse), he’s bad. Case in point: Kenseth led 93 laps to finish 3rd in this race last year, but finished 38th here this year in the spring. He’s a high-risk, high-reward pick, but given his last three finishes (average: 7.0), the reward may be there for the taking.

9. Tony Stewart: Stewart has been running at the finish all 13 times he’s started a Phoenix race. His average finish of 9.8 is tops among Toyota drivers, and he’s only finished worse than 18th once. Smoke wants to go out at Joe Gibbs Racing with a bang, and building on that impressive Phoenix resume would sure help. An interesting note: Stewart’s eight top-10s are as many as his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have combined for in the same amount of starts between them.

10. Kyle Busch: Cheers to Shrub regaining the final position at NASCAR’s end-of-season awards banquet - for now. Securing that seat, however, will require him to build on his somewhat stellar record at Phoenix. Busch has five top-10s in seven starts here, with the only exceptions coming in 2006. He’s led laps at the track before, and he’s been stellar in most of the past few races. There’s a chance that he might snag one more Cup win before the year is out.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: One point behind Busch for the final banquet spot, Junebug goes to a track where he has two wins, four top-5s, and six top-10s. He led 87 laps at Phoenix in the spring on the way to a 7th place finish. It’ll take another performance like that to bring him back into the top 10.

12. Denny Hamlin: I predict Hamlin will finish 3rd this weekend. Hey, when it’s happened three times in six starts at the track, it seems like a safe enough bet. For the record, his other finishes are 13th, 34th, and a 16th at this time last year.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Gordon’s due. Hendrick ought to do his best to give Gordon the best car on the track this weekend and keep that 14-year winning streak alive, even if it means making Johnson a bit more vulnerable for Homestead. Let’s make the title fight a real fight, boys.

With One Battle to Win: What NASCAR General to Take?

Carl Edwards won the battle of Atlanta but Jimmy Johnson surely won the war. With a 183 point lead, only three races to go and a seemingly invincible team, Hendrick Motorsports’ no. 48 has it’s third straight Sprint Cup all but locked up. Edwards is putting up a spirited fight, but the Johnson -  Chad Knaus combo is relentless.

Still this column is not about championships. We’ve been mostly using data derived from NASCAR’s scoring loops, mixing in some traditional stats and the random hunch, to try and pick a winner for each upcoming race in the Chase to the Cup. Next up is the 500 miler at Texas Motor Speedway, one of NASCAR’s ubiquitous, intermediate tracks.

Great military leaders throughout history have always strived for command of the terrain. Carl Edwards held the high-ground at Atlanta Motor Speedway for most of the day last Sunday. In the end he managed to hold off the counter-attack of Jimmy Johnson. But it may have been more a matter of Johnson running out of laps than that of Edwards commanding the field. Carl did all he could do. Can he do it again at Texas?

Carl has some things stacked in his favor. He won the first Texas race of 2008. Same year sweeps seem to happen more often on intermediate tracks than on any other type. Cousin Carl has eight wins on the I-tracks during the last five years - a total that trails only Greg Biffle (12) and Johnson (14). And, as Matt pointed out, the fall Atlanta winner has followed up with a Texas Two-step in each of the last three years. Edwards’ Loop Data is strong for Texas too, with a Driver Rating of 96.0 - sixth best - 255 Laps Led and 70.2 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

Tony Stewart is tied for the top Driver Rating with a 107.9 and has series leading stats of 196 Fastest Laps Run, 2109 - 89.8 percent -  Laps in the Top 15, 437 Laps Led and and Ave Position of 8.0.  Tony has four I-track wins, including 2006 at TMS.

Biffle, as stated before, has 12 wins on the intermediates. He always seems fast on fast tracks like Texas. But his tenth best DR for TMS and his lack of category leading Loop Stats make it tough to pick him over his teammate Edwards.

Biffle’s other Roush-Fenway partner, Matt Kenseth has a better shot. Kenseth has the second best Driver Rating - 104.9 - and the best Ave Finish and Ave Mid-race Position - 6.9 and 4.9  - along with the top Ave Points Gained for races at Texas. Kenseth is a six-time I-track winner.

Denny Hamlin’sDriver Rating is a strong 101.9 and though winless on intermediates, has the third best Ave Finish on the I-tracks in general and TMS in particular.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is a three-time I-track winner and has a Loop Driver Rating of 98.1 - 5th best.  But if you heard any of the in car radio conversation between Junior and crew chief Tony Eury Jr, it will be hard to have confidence in their ability to figure the current car out enough to win at Texas. Eury Jr was at a loss to the point where Earnhardt had to calm HIM down. Not the normal state of affairs with the no. 88 team.

Jimmy Johnson was asked if he felt that, with such a big points lead, he could ease up a bit and drive for points. He said, absolutely not. He plans to drive every race that’s left with the intention of winning it. That should send chills down the rosy necks of Johnson haters everywhere. Johnson has a Driver Rating of 107.9 - tied for best with Stewart - he has the best Ave Start and Ave Finish on I-tracks in general and the most wins too.

The pick is the no. 48 Lowes Chevrolet to win this week. For an upset special take Martin Truex Jr  who is seventh in Driver Rating and due for DEI to get a break.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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