• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Fantasy Racing
• Contact Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 - Tums Fast Relief 500

With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Kyle Busch - Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.

2. Jimmie Johnson - If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.

3. Kevin Harvick - What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon - Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.

5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…

6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).

7. Brad Keselowski - Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.

8. Clint Bowyer - NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.

9. Ryan Newman - Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.

11. Jamie McMurray - This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.

12. Matt Kenseth - Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.

14. Juan Montoya - If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.

15. Jeff Burton - With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.

Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:

Greg Biffle - Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.

Kurt Busch - It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.

Kasey Kahne - I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville - Goody’s Fast Relief 500

After the checkered flag waved at Fontana, I had to sit back and rub my eyes; did Kevin Harvick just beat Jimmie Johnson at one of his best tracks? I think most NASCAR fans–myself included–breathed a sigh of relief that this could possibly be the year that Johnson gets knocked off of his throne. Of course, running second every race in the Chase will earn any driver a championship, but I think it was a good thing for NASCAR to see “The Champ” get beat (as well as have an exciting finish after an ultimately dull race).

This week the Sprint Cup series makes a stop at Martinsville Speedway in Virgina, commonly known as “The Paperclip“. This will be the first of two stops at the track this season, with the second coming in late October. Not many drivers have visited victory lane here recently, with Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon combining to win 14 of the last 16 races held at this 0.526-mile oval.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Denny Hamlin held off a hard-charging Mark Martin for his seventh win of the 2010 season. Martin finished second that day with Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson rounding out the top five. In the first race at Martinsville last season, Hamlin led 172 laps and got the win on a green-white-checkered finish over Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. followed those two to the checkers. Hamlin, Logano, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson were the only drivers to record top 10s in both races at “The Paperclip” in 2010. The results of the most recent race at Martinsville can be found by clicking here, and this will show you how drivers finished compared to how they were in practice.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Quite simply, load up on Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson this week. Those two have won the past nine races here and it seems like they are always up front. Some people may shy away from the Gibbs Toyotas, but I don’t see much of a problem with them at the short tracks; picking them at the intermediate ovals, though, is a different story. Last season, qualifying wasn’t very important. In October, Hamlin won from the pole but only one other person who finished in the top ten started there. During the spring race here, none of the top eight finishers started better than 11th. Also, most drivers are good here or bad here, and very rarely do you see the “bad” drivers having a good race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

1. Denny Hamlin - This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Hamlin has won three of the last four races at “The Paperclip” with his other finish being 2nd. He’s made eleven starts at this track and has ten top 10s and an average finish of 6th. The only race that Denny hasn’t completed all of the laps was his second start here where he started 41st and got caught up in an accident. He’s led almost 36% of the laps ran here in the past two years and should be a lock for a top five this week. Don’t worry about the engine problems with the Gibbs cars this week because, as I said before, I don’t think they will have issues on short tracks.

2. Jimmie Johnson - For the first time since 2005, “Five Time” didn’t lead any laps in the two races held at Martinsville last season, but he still posted finishes of 9th and 5th. Jimmie has won here six times and is on a streak of seventeen straight top 10s at this track. Johnson looked good at Bristol a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he won’t challenge for the win on Sunday. He’s real hungry to break his winless streak, especially after getting beat by Harvick in California last week, and this is the perfect place for that to happen.

3. Kevin Harvick - I expect “Happy” to ride the momentum from his win at Fontana into Martinsville and be a factor once again this week. He started on the pole in the spring race last year and led 57 laps before he had problems and wound up finishing 35th. Harvick started 35th in the October race but still came away with a top five finish after leading 97 laps. Kevin has finished in the top twelve in eight of last ten races held at “The Paperclip” and has had great cars in almost every race this season (just not the best luck).

4. Jeff Gordon - Gordon isn’t as good as his teammate here, but he’s damn close. He’s made 36 starts at this track, coming away with 29 top tens and seven wins. He finished 20th in the fall race last season after being wrecked by Kurt Busch (possible payback from Sonoma) and that broke his streak of fifteen top 10s. I expect Gordon to start that streak again this week, and a top five is definitely within his grasps. I think Gordon has been average this season (except for his win in Phoenix) so keep an eye on him this weekend, but it’s real hard to go against his history at this track.

5. Carl Edwards - I’m really liking how smooth Carl’s season is going so far and I think he will have another strong run this weekend. He didn’t have an awesome-fast car in Fontana last week, but still came away with a 6th-place finish (which was higher than he ran all day). Edwards finished 8th in both Martinsville races in 2010 but has just four top 10s to his name in his thirteen starts here. He’s never led a lap here but that could change this weekend. He will be the best pick of the Roush-Fenway Racing camp this weekend.

6. Kyle Busch - Don’t make the mistake I have in the past two weeks and not pick Rowdy Busch in fantasy. He isn’t stellar at this track, but between him and Carl Edwards, there are no other drivers that are on as hot of streaks as these two. Kyle’s best finish at Martinsville is 4th (and he’s done that four times) and he has finished there in two of the past three races here. He’s a little hit-or-miss at this track, with five top 5s and five finishes worse than 20th in his twelve starts. Which Kyle Busch will show up this weekend? I’d bet on the “hit” one.

7. Ryan Newman - In case you didn’t realize this, Ryan Newman is 2nd in points and has as many top 10s and top 5s as Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards (four and three, respectively). “The Rocketman” is a great qualifier at Martinsville–with an average start of 9th and three career poles–and has finished in the top five in 33% of his starts here. Over the past four races at “The Paperclip,” Newman has three finishes in the top seven, and I think it’s very possible he will end up right around there on Sunday. His average driver rating of 98.4 is seventh-best in the series at this track over the past two years.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you’ve read anything from me over the past few weeks, you know I’ve been high on Junior, and that won’t change this week. He didn’t have a great race at Auto Club Speedway, but he still managed a 12th-place finish at one of his worst tracks. Martinsville is Dale Jr’s third-best track and I think he will have a similar race to last fall: lead some laps and get a solid top ten finish. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt has four top tens in six starts at “The Paperclip,” and in his career he averages right around a 14th-place finish.

9. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made 46 starts at Martinsville and has come away with 24 top tens as a result. He has two wins here and has finished in the top eight in three of the past four races here. Martin once again showed his inconsistency in Fontana and that is the reason he is ranked 9th for my preview. He was super fast in practice last week and had many people thinking he had a shot at a top five, only to finish 20th. Like teammate Jeff Gordon, I don’t think Martin is running as well as he should this season. Over the past two years, Mark has the sixth-best average driver rating at this track, but I would consider him a risky pick this week.

10. Jeff Burton - The #31 team has gotten off to a slow start this season, but their finishes have been getting progressively better and I think this is the week that they get their first top ten of the 2011 season. In the two races at Martinsville last year, Burton led 140 and 134 laps but had disappointing finishes of 20th and 9th. He has just one win at this track (in 1997) but hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty since 2006. Burton’s career average finish at “The Paperclip” is 13.8 and he has had the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races here.

11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finally got a top ten last week and I think he could challenge for a second this week at Martinsville. He has just one top five finish in ten starts at this track, but he’s recorded top ten finishes in five of the last seven races here. Clint has never led a lap at “The Paperclip,” so don’t expect him to challenge for a win, but a top ten won’t be out of the question. His last four spring races here have given Bowyer finishes of 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th.

12. Tony Stewart - Last year was an off-year for “Smoke” at Martinsville, with finishes of 26th and 24th, but he has won here twice and his career average finish is a respectable 13.1. In his past eleven starts at Martinsville, Stewart has just three finishes outside of the top fifteen and none worse than 26th. Over the past two seasons, Tony has the ninth-best average driver rating at this track.

13. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, Montoya actually hasn’t been terrible at “The Paperclip.” He’s made eight starts at this track and seven of them have ended in top 20 finishes, although only two have been in the top ten. Juan has been in the top ten in points all season thus far and I don’t think that will change this week. His finishes of 36th and 19th in 2010 at Martinsville are the two worst in Montoya’s Sprint Cup career.

14. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” nearly won the race here last March and was one of only four drivers to score top tens in both trips to Martinsville in 2010. His first trip to “The Paperclip” gave him a 32nd-place finish but he backed that up with a 12-place effort later in 2009. Logano hasn’t been stellar this year, so proceed with caution, but statistically this is Joey’s fourth-best track. He needs a good run to get his season back on track and this could be the week that Logano breaks through.

15. Paul Menard - Paul continued his great start to the season at Fontana with yet another career-best finish, but for him to accomplish that this week it may be a bit tougher. Last season, while running for Richard Petty Motorsports, Menard collected finishes of 14th and 13th. This season he has Richard Childress Racing power under the hood, and they have had success here in the past. Will we see another career-best finish for Paul Menard this week? His worst finish at Martinsville has been 27th in his seven starts here.

Underdogs Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Jamie McMurray - McMurray has finished in the top eleven in three of the past four races here and he has nine top 10s in his sixteen career starts. Word of caution: because he hasn’t ran well this season at all, Jamie will be a risky pick this week, but he’s not terrible at this track: statistically this is McMurray’s fifth-best venue.

Brian Vickers - Dang was Vickers and his Red Bull Toyota fast in Fontana. Will they be able to turn that into a good run at Martinsville? We will find out. Vickers has three finishes of 11th or better in his past four starts here and finished 6th in the spring race in 2010. Kasey Kahne drove this car to a 14th-place finish last October at this track.

Brad Keselowski - He’s made just two starts at this track but Keselowski has finishes of 12th and 10th to his name. This year, BK finished 15th at Phoenix and 18th at Bristol, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question this week, but I doubt he will be able to score another top ten.

David Ragan - I usually only use Ragan on oval tracks but he hasn’t been terrible at Martinsville. Last year he finished 16th and 17th and in 2008 he posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He finished 16th at Bristol a few weeks ago, the first short track race of the season.

Those To Avoid Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Regan Smith - Smith finished 14th here in 2008 but that is his only finish inside the top 20 in his career at this track. Darrell Waltrip keeps saying how good of a season this guy is having, but I just don’t see it: he’s 30th in points and the only race he looked impressive was Daytona. Regan’s cumulative driver ratings over the past three races don’t even add up to Denny Hamlin’s driver rating in the fall race last year.

David Reutimann - Reutty hasn’t even looked good on the tracks where he is expected to perform well so there’s no reason to think he will have a good run on a track that he has an average finish around 26th at. Last year at this track Reutimann finished 27th and 28th. Save him for the intermediates.

Kurt Busch - I expected a 25th-place finish at best last week out of Kurt but he somehow pulled off a 17th. He may do that again this week, but I’m not about to put him on my roster. Busch’s last top ten came in 2005, and while he has one win here, just 4 of Kurt’s 21 starts here have given him a top ten finish.

Martin Truex, Jr. - He finished 5th here last spring, but one good race doesn’t make you a great driver (I’m talking about you, too, Trevor Bayne). His average finish is 22.5 at this track and three of Truex’s last four starts here have given him finishes of either 28th or 29th. He looks like his 2010 self thus far, so don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the practice speed charts this weekend. Just don’t be fooled by him.

I’m just hoping for an enjoyable race this week, and I’m sure many others are as well. I nearly fell asleep multiple times during the race last week, but I must say, those last ten or so laps were intense. I will post my final predictions for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 over at ifantasyrace.com so be sure to check those out, and make sure you join NASCARNation if you haven’t already. Good luck to everyone’s fantasy rosters this week, and if you want my opinion between two drivers where you don’t know who to pick, feel free to send me a tweet.

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Martinsville Looks Dangerous for Roush-Fenway Duo

Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have had plenty of success on short tracks. But not at Martinsville Speedway. The two Roush-Fenway drivers have little margin for error left if they plan to push Jimmy Johnson and, now, Jeff Burton for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship.

Martinsville, being the half-mile bullring that it is, has a bit of a wild-card flavor when it comes to championship considerations. Accidents happen, and they can happen to anybody here. But the trends favor Burton and Johnson to miss the wrecks and Edwards and Biffle, not so much.

Of all the Chase contenders in 2008, Biffle has the lowest Loop Data Driver Rating for Martinsville - 64.4 - and Edwards is next at 72.4. Biffle has just one top ten in 11 attempts and an Ave Finish of 23.6. Carl has one top ten and averages a bit worse than 19th place. For comparison, Jimmy Johnson has nine top fives, 12 top tens and an Ave Finish of 6.0. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 121.2.

For either Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle to leave Virginia this weekend and still be considered serious contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup, a reversal of fortune must occur. For them, Jimmy Johnson or both.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Copyright © 2012 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!