Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win
October 16, 2008
Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway. It can’t be because of past successes there. Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon. In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish.
The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.
Compare Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.
Once and Future King of Martinsville?
Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.
Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.
The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123.
There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.
Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.
The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.
I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.
Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway
October 15, 2008

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.
What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?
Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.
Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.
That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.
What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.
We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.
It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.
Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.
Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.
Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.
So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.
Give Me A “J” at Martinsville
October 13, 2008
Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.
As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.
The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson
Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th
I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.
Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.
Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media
Martinsville Looks Dangerous for Roush-Fenway Duo
October 12, 2008
Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have had plenty of success on short tracks. But not at Martinsville Speedway. The two Roush-Fenway drivers have little margin for error left if they plan to push Jimmy Johnson and, now, Jeff Burton for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship.
Martinsville, being the half-mile bullring that it is, has a bit of a wild-card flavor when it comes to championship considerations. Accidents happen, and they can happen to anybody here. But the trends favor Burton and Johnson to miss the wrecks and Edwards and Biffle, not so much.
Of all the Chase contenders in 2008, Biffle has the lowest Loop Data Driver Rating for Martinsville - 64.4 - and Edwards is next at 72.4. Biffle has just one top ten in 11 attempts and an Ave Finish of 23.6. Carl has one top ten and averages a bit worse than 19th place. For comparison, Jimmy Johnson has nine top fives, 12 top tens and an Ave Finish of 6.0. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 121.2.
For either Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle to leave Virginia this weekend and still be considered serious contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup, a reversal of fortune must occur. For them, Jimmy Johnson or both.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.



