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Ford and Chevy Wins Evenly Split at Dover

Over the last eleven races, Ford leads in manufacturer wins at Dover.

Dating back through the 2003 season, the Fords out of the Jack Roush stable have won four times.  One win each for Mark Martin (2004), Greg Biffle (2005), Matt Kenseth (2006) and Carl Edwards (2007) would lead one to believe that a win in 2008 must loom on the horizon.  Carl Edward’s season to this point would lead you to believe that he is the most likely to gain a win at the Monster Mile.

However, last week’s win at New Hampshire by Biffle, could make him the favorite to pull off back to back wins.  Biffle’s strong outing came at the amazment of many who never saw his strong performance as possible.

Over the same four and a half year period both Dodge and Chevrolet account for three wins each.  Martin Truex Jr. was the most recent winner at Dover in a Chevy for Dale Earnhardt Inc., doing so in the Spring of 2007.  Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton took home the victory in the Fall of 2006 and Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmy Johnson was the winner in the Fall of 2005.

Ryan Newman holds all the wins for Dodge; sweeping the races there in 2003 and getting a third win at the fall race in 2004.  The Penske Dodges were strong early in this six year sampling, but have shown nothing of late.

Looking further back into the manufacturers history at Dover, Ford and Chevrolet have won 21 and 27 times respectively.  If you add in seven Mercury wins for Ford Motor Company, the two manufacturers are on an even standing.  Several years in the early seventies Ford only raced under the Mercury banner, so its not too far fetched to combine the two makes.  Whereas General Motors has run cars under several banners for most of their racing careers.

Pontiac has accounted for six wins,  Oldsmobile two and Buick brought home three in addition to the twenty-seven for Chevrolet.  Add four Richard petty wins in Plymouths and Dodges from the early seventies to the three Newman wins and you can see that Mopars haven’t been much of a factor in the history of The Monster Mile.

This years saw the first victory for Toyota at Dover with non other than Kyle Busch behind the wheel.  While Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chasers of Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could be a factor on Sunday, look for Jimmy Johnson’s Chevy or Carl Edwards’ Ford to come home first.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Champs Can Trip Up At Dover

In the Chase For The Cup, winning isn’t everything. Oh sure, Jimmie Johnson tried to prove me wrong last year. But, substitute his run with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finishes, he still wins the title. No, in the Chase consistency is king. Everyone is entitled to slip up, but make sure it happens early. As Johnson said after Loudon, you don’t really know how it’ll shake out until about Kansas.

Dover has seen Chasers win each race since 2004, yet the eventual champion has, with the exception of Kurt Busch, has had a rather pedestrian finish. That trend could always change, but thus far it has held up. Just something to keep in mind with just 9 races remaining in the year. I hope you saved your fantasy starts for the top drivers at the end. The numbers prove me right:

The winners:
2007 – Carl Edwards
2006 – Jeff Burton
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Ryan Newman

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 13th
2005 – Tony Stewart 18th
2004 – Kurt Busch 5th

There are 4 drivers I like to either win or secure a top finish at Dover based on how well they run and their previous records at the track. Those drivers are Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Kyle Busch. Each driver has won at Dover before, with Burton and Edwards winning the ’06 and ’07 races. Biffle and Busch have won spring Dover races and each have 2nd-place Chase finishes here. One driver I say to stay away from is Jimmie Johnson. Sure, Johnson won here in ’05. Yet look at his previous finishes. I don’t like the way he has run here recently, and the recent performance is what I’m looking at. You’d be better-served saving him for Kansas, Charlotte, or Martinsville.

I have a few sleepers to keep an eye on as well. The first is Mark Martin. He does nothing but run up front at Dover. Last season running part-time, he finished 4th. The team and car this year have been good on the smaller tracks. The second sleeper is Jamie McMurray. Despite having his team raided pre-Chase, he always seems to run well at Dover. For those brave souls that don’t mind taking a risk I’d almost say Juan Pablo Montoya. Just call it a hunch. He didn’t run bad last year and was racier than he has been most of the year at Loudon. Maybe he has a little momentum on his side.

Finally, the song for Dover is “Push” by Matchbox Twenty. Like the song says, “It’s not over, no not here.” That, and it’s hard to find a song about Delaware.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Concrete Surface Makes Dover the Monster Mile

Dover Downs opened in 1969 as a unique dual purpose facility, designed to accommodate both horse racing and motor racing events.

The first event on the “Monster Mile” was the “Mason-Dixon 300,” a NASCAR Cup Series race, on July 6, won by Richard Petty.  The history of Dover Downs has been wound tightly around the horse racing and gaming community.   In 1994 The Delaware state legislature approved slot machines at para-mutual horse racing facilities thus making this the only NASCAR track with legalized betting.

In 2002 Dover Downs International Speedway became Dover International Speedway, as the gaming side of the company was split off and Dover Motorsports, Inc. was created to exclusively oversee racing at the Dover, Nashville, Memphis and St. Louis tracks, as well as the Grand Prix of Long Beach. The harness racing, slots operation and hotel retain the Dover Downs name and is now known as Dover Downs Hotel & Casino.

The first major renovation to the racing surface came in 1995 when the entire one mile track was resurfaced in concrete becoming the first NASCAR sanctioned track to be made of concrete.  Over a sixteen year period beginning in 1986, seats were added to the racing facility on a yearly basis until a capacity of 135,000 was reached in 2001.

A unique race perspective can be had from the Monster Bridge, a 56 seat, glass-enclosed structure that extends over the track in Turn 3, is unveiled in 2004. The one-of-a-kind structure creates the “Most Exciting Seat in Sports.” That year also saw the newly introduced “Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup” come to the Monster Mile in the fall.  Ryan Newman  notches another Dover win in the Sept. event and takes home the first ‘monster’ trophy.

Currently Dover is in the midst of a multi-year improvement program that will see new luxery boxes and suites along with improved fan areas and a new signature 46 foot tall Miles the Monster structure.  The monument also includes a tribute to all winners and legendary drivers at Dover.

Dover is one of only seven racetracks to host a true NASCAR tripleheader; consisting of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, the NASCAR Nationwide Series and the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.  Jeremy Mayfield  holds the qualifying record at 22.288 sec. (161.522 mph) in 2004. The race record of 132.719 mph was set on September 21, 1997 by Mark Martin.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating – 118.6.  He has led more laps – 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick – and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score – 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ’07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best – 103.9 – for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 – 111.8.  He has led more laps – 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps – run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon – 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish – 6.8 – at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

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