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Thank You Jamie. CC: Cousin Carl

We’ll start this week with a quote from another famous Champion by the name of The Nature Boy, “Wooooooooooo!”

I’d like to thank Jamie Mac for so graciously contributing to the bills in the infield, with one of the strongest runs in his tenure at Roush. He was there all… damn… day. Hammer down, and had some of them crazy Chasers not played the gas card he’d have laid the smack down in Texas. Bottoms up, to that one.

I’d also like to thank ol’ Cousin Carl, for his performance on Saturday. He too helped offset a little adventure of full speed adrenaline at 180mph for 4 laps around the track. Courtesy of Team Texas, of course. Wow.

I’d also like to thank Ron Hornaday. Not only will my laptop carry a high resale value for just being a kick ass Mac, but now the (soon to be, you betcha) back to back Truck Champion adorns it for all to see. As Terrible Terry Tate once said, “Nice play baby!”

Martin Truex held himself in the Top-10 by the end, 6 places behind his starting spot.

Rounding out the Top-10 was none other than Beak. Congrats Reut, ya earned it.

So now we’re moving from Texas Twisters to those Arizona Rattlers out on the hill. Well, actually last weekend it was earthquakes (no kidding, folks), but that’s beside the point.

Looking back, Mark Martin and Martin Truex both ran strong here last spring. They were the only two in the Top-10 who are not currently in the Chase. And since we’re covering the other 31 drivers out there, we’ll carry on.

Jamie McMurray wasn’t too far out of the Top-10, and considering his current momentum he could sneak it in. That team has been pulling it together, and the results are finally showing. It was an interesting read from Marty Smith on this one earlier, check it out if you get a chance.

There were a few other surprises out there last spring as well. Juan Pablo, Bobby Labonte, and David Gilliland were all in the Top-16, Reutimann was 18th as well.

If you want momentum, bring in David Ragan, Jamie Mac and David Reutimann. From there, who knows. It’s Phoenix. Even being a quarter mile longer than Richmond, for some reason it’s always reminded me of Richmond after being flipped around to make the front the back and the back the front. Although the comparisons end there. Not to mention it’s a 500, but measured in kilometers? Never made a lick of sense to me, but hey, whatever. Drop the flag, get it on, and let’s go racing.

Oh and one more thing, be sure to thank your Office Linebacker as the season draws to a close.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Lowe’s Not a Fan of the Blue Oval

This weekend’s Bank of America 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway will be the one-hundredth Cup race held since its inception in June of 1960.

In the first four decades of races at Charlotte, Fords had been a consistant presence.  Twenty-five wins in those first forty years leading to the new millenium ranked the brand among the leaders in manufacturer wins.  Only Chevrolet had more wins in those early years; bringing home the checkers twenty-seven times.

In recent years however it has been a much different story for the boys from Dearborn.  Fords have seen  victory lane only twice in the 21st century.  Matt Kenseth in 2001 and Mark Martin in 2002 brought their Roush Fords home first in that years Coca-Cola 600.  No Ford has come home victorious this century in the Fall race.

Contrast that to the eight wins in seven and a half years for Chevrolet and you can see a definite trend emerging.  Much on the strength of the Hendrick Motorsports teams, the Bowtie Brigade’s owns the mile and a half at Lowe’s.  Five of those wins and four in a row starting in 2004 come at the hands of current points leader Jimmy Johnson.  Johnson has pretty much owned all the success at Lowes since he has entered the sport.

I will go way out on a limb and look for JJ to put up another good run at Lowes Motor Speedway in his Chevrolet.

The only possible chink in the armour could come from the Dodge of Kasey Kahne.  Kahne has won three of the last five races at NASCAR’s home track and all but one of Dodge’s victories in recent times.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chevrolet holds the edge at Talladega

Ken Shrader started the domination of Chevrolet at Talladega in 1988.

But it has been the Chevys of Dale Earnhardt and then his race team that has held a lock on the longest oval on the NASCAR circuit.  Twenty eight wins in the forty races since Shrader started the trend gives the Bowtie Brigade seventy percent of the wins since that July day in 1988.

Only eight Fords, one Pontiac and one Toyota have won in the same twenty years time span.  Kyle Busch holds the lone Toyota victory from earlier this year.  Only two of the Fords have come from a team that has cars in the Chase.  Mark Martin owns the two wins for Roush-Fenway Racing. The most Ford wins com from Yates Racing cars that are not involved in the post-season.  The remaining two came from the Blue Ovals fielded by Junior Johnson.

Those Ford numbers don’t bode well for the Roush-Fenway entries of Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards or Matt Kenseth.

The late Dale Earnhardt owns eight of the 28 wins, or 28 percent, but a full 100% of the wins from Richard Childress Racing .  Rick Hendrick owned cars have won ten races mostly with Jeff Gordon behind the wheel.

No Chrysler product has seen victory lane since Dave Marcis did it in a Dodge in August of 1976.

When looking for a favorite at the unpredictable superspeedway, look no further that Chevy drivers, especially Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Both drivers are in desperate need of a win to get their Chse hopes back.

photo credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR

Gentlemen, Roll Your Dice

Right. So Charlie says to Steve about 5 weeks ago, “We need a sucker to write up all the non-Chaser options for the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.” So Steve says, “Well, I owe Luke one, so let’s talk him into it. He’ll write anything, you know.”

So here we are. Suckered, er, convinced, into covering the 31 other possibilities for cracking the Top-10, and knocking Chasers into the lower points-per-position bracket.

Before we dig into what went down at Kansas, in terms of the Top-10 party, how about that finish? Sure, it wasn’t so hot until the last 50 or so laps, but from there on it was hammer down aggressiveness. All completed by a “Cole Trickle” style move for the win. Of course, that’s not the only time Cousin Carl has showed us an impression of Cole Trickle either. Anyone want to recall Michigan, and a little bit of screaming out of the pits?

On to the non-Chasers from Kansas.

Luke’s score from Kansas: 1 for 5. Let’s recap.

• Brian Vickers: 15th
• Mark Martin: 18th
• Beak: 19th
• Ryan Newman: 16th
• Elliott Sadler: 10th

At least we kept it in the top 20 this week.

It wasn’t all roses in the Top-10 however. It was only a 70% take for the Chasers.

Coming in with an 8th place showing was David Ragan, followed by A.J. Allmendinger in 9th, and the aforementioned Elliott Sadler closing out the Top-10.

If only Kasey Kahne had better studied Elliot’s setup, he wouldn’t have been 11 spots behind. Is it just me, or has the 9 team has been a bit behind the 8-ball since NASCAR reeled in the “crab walking” with the rear ends of the car? Maybe it’s just coincidence, but then again, maybe not.

So now we arrive at Talladega. Talk about a crapshoot. As we all know, anything can (and usually will) happen at Talladega. It’s the one track in the Chase that puts knots in Chasers stomachs, and boogeymen under their beds.

Here’s your three good options for ‘Dega, that not only have the chance of being in the Top-10 when the smoke clears, but also take an outside shot at the win:

Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and Kurt Busch.

OK, Vickers yet again. He’s performed pretty solid on the plate tracks, and his only win in the series came in this event in 2006.

David Ragan has surprisingly been a familiar face in the Top-10 for plate events as well this season, and the same goes for Kurt, despite an accident last July at Daytona.

When it comes to the plate tracks, just roll your dice. These tracks take more than stats into account, as one lone sneeze can kill a stat quicker than it takes to come out. That’s anywhere from 95 to 650 mph, according to Wikipedia, in case you were wondering.

That being the case, momentum on these types of tracks is important. Not just from recent weeks, but from recent plate races as well. And don’t let the qualifying results fool you. The chance of a Chaser hitting the pole is slim, as it’s an impound race and most teams in the Top-35 will be focusing solely on race runs. This is one place where you won’t hear teams talking about qualifying for track position, for once.

When the checkers fall, how will your dice roll have turned out? Will they be shaken up like the points could be?

It’s a Biffle Bash

Wow. Who would have predicted anything close to what has transpired thus far in the 2008 Chase? Pipe down Marc, no you didn’t.

• David Ragan: 18th, 1 lap down
• Ryan Newman: Worked up to 13th. Too bad this isn’t Horseshoes.
• David Reutimann: Had it, then a late pit error cost him a Top-10. After the penalty, he fought back to 17th. The first car 1 lap down.
• Brian Vickers: Never a factor, finished 31st.

How about Mikey? Nice run there, fella. Were you mad at something? Try it again sometime, and you’ll beat that speed limit.

Speaking of the 31st, that’s Halloween you know. Anyone know where the best NASCAR Halloween Party is going to be? Keep an eye out as we clear the dust off of Thunder Lounge, and prep to throw a Texas sized party in the infield.

So we’re darn sure in Kansas now, Toto. All bets are off for this one.

Historically speaking, Kansas has been a track that has been kind to those not in the Chase. Even as recent as last year, Mr. “Last Two” here took home the victory in nothing less that what is still considered a fiasco of a race. Remember all the smoke about Stewart missing the Chase? He won here then, too.

Can the streak of Chaser victories end at 2?

He’s bit me twice, but finished 6th at the same track back in July. Well, OK, it’s different in name, but what’s the difference between a chocolate chip cookie and a double chocolate chip cookie? They’re both chocolate chip cookies. Brian Vickers stands a chance to take some points.

Is that “Kid” Martin racing this week? That sneeky ol’ cat can hang it out on such tracks as well.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Beak is coming. And he stands a fair chance of doing very well here.

If you’re looking at outside sneaking in, Ryan Newman or Elliott Sadler could pull a fast one and mix it up with the Top-10 as well.

Thus far, with 20% of the big enchilada gone by, it’s all Chasers, all the time. How about that Roush Sandwich that was made out of Jimmie Johnson, right before Jack Roush swept the Top 3 at Dover last weekend? Sandwich downed, how about those three Roushketeers mixing it up and battling for the win? This car has it’s moments, hopefully more to come.

What we have seen thus far this season, is the same thing we’ve seen most of the season leading up to the Chase. The guys in the Chase are the ones consistently running up front. Getting the Top-5’s and 10’s, and bagging the wins. But that wasn’t always the case, and with 31 other cars on the track, it’s 31 vs. 12, and they’re hungry for that win as well.

Kansas Has Been Kind to Non-Chasers

Kansas Speedway can sort out the have and have-nots in the Chase for the Cup. Only once has a Chaser won in Kansas, but champs run strong in the race, along with their competitors for the title. Case in point: last season, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson finished 2-3 behind winner Greg Biffle. In 2005, Biffle and Carl Edwards finished 2-3, with champion Tony Stewart right behind them in 4th.

The winners:
2007 – Greg Biffle (non-Chaser)
2006 – Tony Stewart (non-Chaser)
2005 – Mark Martin
2004 – Joe Nemechek (non-Chaser)

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2005 – Tony Stewart 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch 6th

The hottest driver on the circuit right now is Biffle. He also just happens to be heading to the track that has suited him extremely well. Finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 12th, and 1st solidify his position. Could Biffle win three races in a row? It’s very likely. No driver is as hungry as he is right now. Biffle is bound and determined to go win all 10 races. He’ll have to contend with some hometown favorites to do that, of course. Both Edwards and Bowyer have extra motivation to win at Kansas – for Bowyer, it’s his hometown track. For Edwards, it’s close to his hometown in Missouri. Martin will also look to score a win at Kansas, the site of his last Sprint Cup win in 2005. The Army team seems to be running the best it has all year right now. Finally, the pattern of this race has gone Chevy-Ford-Chevy-Ford in the Chase. Will that hold form? Sunday we’ll see.

If you’re looking for sleepers, the driver with a surprisingly strong record at this track is Casey Mears. He has finishes of 8th, 2nd, and 4th since 2005. For those feeling brave, take a chance on young Joey Logano. Remember, his best finishes this year in the Nationwide Series have been on bigger tracks, including his poles at Nashville and Kentucky, along with his win at Kentucky – a 1.5 mile tri-oval similar to Kansas.

Finally, Kansas brings us closer to the end of the season. Kansas sorts out who still has a chance and who is racing for wins and more points money. We’re going back to the old-school with Tom Petty’s “Running Down A Dream.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Ford and Chevy Wins Evenly Split at Dover

Over the last eleven races, Ford leads in manufacturer wins at Dover.

Dating back through the 2003 season, the Fords out of the Jack Roush stable have won four times.  One win each for Mark Martin (2004), Greg Biffle (2005), Matt Kenseth (2006) and Carl Edwards (2007) would lead one to believe that a win in 2008 must loom on the horizon.  Carl Edward’s season to this point would lead you to believe that he is the most likely to gain a win at the Monster Mile.

However, last week’s win at New Hampshire by Biffle, could make him the favorite to pull off back to back wins.  Biffle’s strong outing came at the amazment of many who never saw his strong performance as possible.

Over the same four and a half year period both Dodge and Chevrolet account for three wins each.  Martin Truex Jr. was the most recent winner at Dover in a Chevy for Dale Earnhardt Inc., doing so in the Spring of 2007.  Richard Childress Racing’s Jeff Burton took home the victory in the Fall of 2006 and Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmy Johnson was the winner in the Fall of 2005.

Ryan Newman holds all the wins for Dodge; sweeping the races there in 2003 and getting a third win at the fall race in 2004.  The Penske Dodges were strong early in this six year sampling, but have shown nothing of late.

Looking further back into the manufacturers history at Dover, Ford and Chevrolet have won 21 and 27 times respectively.  If you add in seven Mercury wins for Ford Motor Company, the two manufacturers are on an even standing.  Several years in the early seventies Ford only raced under the Mercury banner, so its not too far fetched to combine the two makes.  Whereas General Motors has run cars under several banners for most of their racing careers.

Pontiac has accounted for six wins,  Oldsmobile two and Buick brought home three in addition to the twenty-seven for Chevrolet.  Add four Richard petty wins in Plymouths and Dodges from the early seventies to the three Newman wins and you can see that Mopars haven’t been much of a factor in the history of The Monster Mile.

This years saw the first victory for Toyota at Dover with non other than Kyle Busch behind the wheel.  While Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chasers of Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could be a factor on Sunday, look for Jimmy Johnson’s Chevy or Carl Edwards’ Ford to come home first.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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