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Scouting Report: New Hampshire

How to make an informed pick for the New Hampshire Sylvania 300

1) The most important thing I would really focus on this week in the process of making an informed fantasy pick is to really study New Hampshire track history. New Hampshire is a “skill track”. The driver is the most important variable this week, not a teams aero department. Since this is a skill track drivers average finishes are extremely valuable fantasy information.

2) For New Hampshire I would strongly suggest you study recent results/ performances at similar tracks. The two similar tracks I would study are Phoenix and Richmond. Both of these tracks have data that can cross over for this weekends race at the Magic Mile.

3) Practice is important every week. In practice you really want a driver who says their car drives good. A good driving car at New Hampshire is a fast car.

4) Qualifying is important but it’s not the most important variable this week. During pit stops at New Hampshire lots of pit strategy will be taking place as drivers seek to get precious track position. Look for gas and goes and two tire pit stops to be frequent. The bottom line at New Hampshire is that the strong always get to the front.

Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Sylvania 300:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a three time winner who last won at New Hampshire in 2010. Earlier this year Johnson finished 5th and led 19 laps. Johnson started 28th and passed more cars then anyone (93). Jimmie has an average finish of 10th and a average start of 11th. This is Chase time and that means it’s “Jimmie time”.

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is a two time winner at New Hampshire. In July he finished second in what was Stewart- Haas Racing’s first one-two finish. Stewart has been extremely competitive here recently. In two out of the last three New Hampshire races he’s finished second. In the one race he didn’t finish second he was in the lead until he ran out of gas in the closing laps relegating him to a 24th place finish (led 100 laps). Stewart has led laps in the last eight consecutive races at New Hampshire (414 laps over last eight races).

Jeff Gordon – Now’s not the time to hop off the Jeff Gordon momentum bandwagon. He’s a three time New Hampshire winner (last in 1998) who’s only finished outside the top fifteen once since 2004. He should’ve won the 2009 race but Logano was aided by rain. Richmond (best car) and Phoenix (won) are similar tracks so there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat in the Sylvania 300.

Kevin Harvick – All RCR cars missed the setup at New Hampshire earlier this year. That really concerns me. His Richmond win was huge though in terms of inspiring fantasy NASCAR confidence for me. He also performed admirably at Phoenix in February and finished 4th with a damaged car. Before his 21st place finish in July Harvick had two consecutive 5th place finishes. Harvick won the New Hampshire Chase opening race in 2006.

Kurt Busch – Earlier this year Kurt Busch led 66 laps and finished 10th. On the last lap of the regular season race he was running in fifth before he ran out of gas. Since 2008 Kurt Busch has an average finish of 6th, a mid race average running position of 6th, and an average running position of 7th. The bottom line about Kurt Busch is that he’s always near the front of the pack.

VegasInsider.com odds to win at Loudon:

Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 7/1, Jeff Gordon 7/1, Brad Keselowski 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Ryan Newman 14/1, Kurt Busch 16/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Tony Stewart 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Kevin Harvick 7)Carl Edwards 8)Kyle Busch 9)Kurt Busch 10)Matt Kenseth

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Sylvania 300 Pre Race Loop Data Book
• 5 Year New Hampshire Averages
• Similar Track Averages
• Entry List
• Schedule of events

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	25	16.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	24	11.26
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	9	10.33
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Tony Stewart	24	13.11
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	14.81
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	2	11.93
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.07
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	24	14.11
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	24	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	11.26
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.44
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	11	15.93
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	25	13.26
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	9	13.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	9	14.15
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.52
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.81
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	2	16.19

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from Loudon

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.81
James Jones	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	12.78
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Ryan Newman	8	20.44
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.59
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	29	15.30
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinRyan Newman	298	14.2213.96
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.07
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.26
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	35	12.33
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Ryan Newman	8	12.33
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Martin Truex Jr	20	13.89
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.67
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.70
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	18.59
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	12.04
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	19.07
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	35	11.74

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway

The braking skills needed to succeed at New Hampshire Motor Speedway also apply to the other flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway and Richmond International Raceway, the site of last week’s race.

For those of you that want to play an all-new (and free) fantasy NASCAR game during the Chase for the Sprint Cup, check out the Onebadwheel Fantasy NASCAR Racing Cheatsheet Driver vs. Driver game!
Don’t agree with my rankings? Leave your comments below!

Chasing the pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

1.  Juan Pablo Montoya… Winner of two straight poles at Loudon.
2. Kurt Busch… Qualified third in his last two attempts at Loudon.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings:

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Denny Hamlin… Won 7/07 race at Loudon. Average finish of 8.2 in nine career starts at Loudon, has never finished worse than 15th. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner (6/10, 03 sweep) at Loudon. Average running position of eighth or better in seven straight. Y!-A2
3. Kurt Busch… Three-time winner (6/08, 04 sweep) at Loudon. Average finish of 3.8 since 08. Y!-A3
4. Jeff Gordon… Three-time winner (8/98, 9/97, 7/95) at Loudon. Average finish of 8.2 in the last 10, runner-up three times. Y!-A4
5. Kevin Harvick… Won 9/06 race at Loudon. Finished fifth in June, average running position of 14th. Y!-B1
6. Kyle Busch… Won 7/06 race at Loudon, average finish of 7.7 in the last three.
7. Jeff Burton… Four-time winner (9/00, 7/99, 7/98, 7/97) at Loudon. Average running position of fifth in June and led 89 laps, finished 12th. Y!-B2
8. Clint Bowyer… Won 9/07 race at Loudon. Average running position of 15th or better in six straight at Loudon, two straight Top 10s. Y!-B3
9. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of 13th or better in four straight at Loudon, ran fourth last Sept, sixth in June.
10. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (7/05, 7/00) at Loudon, average finish of 9.0 in 11 starts since 05.
11. Ryan Newman… Two-time winner (9/05, 9/02) at Loudon. Average running position of 10th in two straight. Y!-B4
12. Greg Biffle… Won 9/08 race at Loudon. Finished ninth in last year’s September race.
13. Kasey Kahne… Average running position of 12th or better in three of the last four at Loudon. Y!-B5
14. Carl Edwards… Only two Top 10s in 12 career starts at Loudon.
15. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 20.6 in the last three at Loudon. Y!-B6
16. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished a career-best 10th in June at Loudon. Y!-C1
17. Joey Logano… Won 6/09 race at Loudon, finished ninth in June. Y!-B7
18. Jamie McMurray… Has finished 18th in two straight at Loudon. Y!-B8
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average running position of 13th or better in eight straight at Loudon, finished eighth in June.
20. David Reutimann… Four straight Top 15 finishes at Loudon, one Top Five.
21. Mark Martin… Won 9/09 race at Loudon, finished 21st in June.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 4.8 from 07-08 at Loudon, 26.0 in the last three.
23. Marcos Ambrose… Average running position of 20th in two straight at Loudon.
24. Brad Keselowski… Average running positions of 23rd and 25th in two career starts at Loudon.
25. Reed Sorenson… Finished 24th in June at Loudon. Y!-C2
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 29.3 in seven career starts at Loudon. Y!-C3
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.8 in 23 career starts at Loudon.
28. Robby Gordon… Won 11/01 race at Loudon. Average finish of 25.5 in last four at Loudon (08-09). Y!-C4
29. David Ragan… Average finish of 27.6 in seven career starts at Loudon.
30. Casey Mears… Finished 29th in June at Loudon, 11th and 13th last year.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 27.4 in five career starts at Loudon.
32. Scott Speed… Average finish of 31.3 in three career starts at Loudon.
33. Regan Smith… Average finish of 29.7 in six career starts at Loudon.
34. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 30.3 in six career starts at Loudon (05-08).
35. Jeff Green… Average finish of 24.7 in 15 career starts at Loudon (1997-2007).
36. Bobby Labonte… Finished 30th in June at Loudon.
37. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 28.5 in 21 career starts at Loudon.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 35.3 in seven career starts at Loudon.
39. Tony Raines… Average finish of 29.9 in eight career starts at Loudon.
40. Andy Lally… Possible start and park.
41. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Won 9/99 race at Loudon.
42. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
44. Todd Bodine… Likely start and park.
45. Scott Riggs… Likely start and park.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	No Pick	44	15.06
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Mark Martin	21	10.76
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.12
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jeff Burton	12	13.00
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	4	14.00
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	14	12.41
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	14	8.35
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	14	14.71
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	2	13.47
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	4	14.06
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	1	9.41
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	12	16.41
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Greg Biffle	16	13.35
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	11	13.50
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	3	10.88
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	5	11.24
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Denny Hamlin	14	13.35
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Denny Hamlin	14	10.53
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	4	15.06

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks:New Hampshire Motor Speedway

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	34	16.82
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	7	11.06
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	No Pick	44	22.47
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	6	11.71
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Joey Logano	9	13.06
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Joey Logano Dale Earnhardt Jr	9 8	13.06 12.47
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	34	12.12
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	6	8.29
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	9	11.18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Ryan Newman	6	12.35
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Juan Pablo Montoya	34	13.24
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Clint Bowyer	7	12.65
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	6	15.24
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	34	19.24
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Ryan Newman	6	10.65
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	34	14.53
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	22	20.59
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Marcos Ambrose	13	10.71

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Lenox Industrial Tools 301

Greetings On Pit Row readers,
Last week I got feedback from a reader that the Fantasy Racing Preview would be more useful if the drivers were ranked straight through, rather than split into the A/B/C list used by Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing. The Preview is still a work in progress and the aim is to inform all fantasy NASCAR players - regardless of format. That said, I’ve taken the feedback and I’ve ranked everyone on the entry list from No. 1 to No. 46 as a test run this week.

For Yahoo! players, the top-four A list drivers, top-eight B list drivers and top-four C list drivers will have Y! tags attached to them. Top qualifiers, for those chasing bonus points, and value plays, for those looking for low-rent salary cap options, will remain the same. Value plays are also geared for owners in allocation formats looking to save driver starts.

As I mentioned on Tuesday’s On Pit Row, starting position is huge at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In the 28 races runs here, the winner has started 15th or better 21 times. Over the last three years (six races), two drivers have won from the pole. The other three winners qualified fourth, ninth and 11th. Kurt Busch won from the 26th position last year, but stayed out prior to rain showers and won a shortened race.

What do you think of the new format? Leave your comments below.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Swept in ‘03. Top-10s in six of the last seven, finished 15th or better in 13 of 14 career starts. Best average starting position of the last five years (10 starts): 7.9. Y! A-1
2. Tony Stewart… Twenty career starts: 10 top-five finishes. Laps led in three starts in a row and seven of the last nine. Y! B-1
3. Jeff Gordon… Laps led in 17 of 28 career starts. ‘08- 11th, 14th. ‘07- second, second. Last pole- ‘04. Last win- ‘98. Y! A-2
4. Denny Hamlin… Six career starts: won in ‘07, five top-10 finishes, never finished worse than 15th. Y! B-2
5. Greg Biffle… 13 career starts: won the most recent race in September, three consecutive top-fives (7/05, 9/05, 7/06). Only top-10 in the other nine starts. Y! A-3
6. Kyle Busch… Most recent pole winner. Laps led in four on eight career starts. ‘08- 25th, 34th. ‘07- 11th, fourth. Won 7/06. Y-4
7. Matt Kenseth… No victories, but consistent. Top-10 finishes in 10 of the last 13 starts.
8. Ryan Newman… Strong qualifier. Four poles but none since ‘06. Laps led in 11 of 14 career starts. ‘07- ninth, 10th. ‘08- 15th, 36th. Y! B-3
9. Kurt Busch… Good qualifier. Started inside the top-three (9/06, 7/07, 9/07) Defending champion of this race, swept in ‘04 but poor finishes in between (19th or worse in five straight races). Y! B-4
10. Carl Edwards… Finished third last September, only one top-10 in eight other starts.
11. Mark Martin… No starts since ‘06, two top-10s in the last 10 starts.
12. Jeff Burton… Four career wins, none since ‘00. Top-10 finishes in five of the last seven starts.
13. Clint Bowyer… Six career starts: one top-10, a victory from the pole in 9/07- led 222 of 300 laps.
14. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Good qualifier. Started fourth and fifth last year. Laps led in four straight races but uneven finishes: ‘07- fourth, 16th. ‘08- 24th, fifth. Y! B-5
15. Kasey Kahne… First five career starts: four top-10s. Next five starts: zero top-10s, finished 20th or worse three times. Y! B-6
16. David Reutimann… Improvements in four straight career starts: ‘07- 38th, 26th. ‘08- 19th, 15th. Y! B-7
17. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Six career starts: seventh or better in four straight. Y! B-8
18. Casey Mears… Weak value play. Two top-10 finishes over the last three starts. Finished outside of the top-20 in eight of 12 career starts.
19. Kevin Harvick… Laps led in eight of 16 career starts. Won from the pole 9/06.
20. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. ‘08- 10th, 13th. Outside of top-20 in four of five races prior. Seven top-10s nine races from 8/98-9/02. Y! C-1
21. Brian Vickers… Laps led in four of 10 career starts but only one top-10 finish (fifth in 9/06).
22. Marcos Ambrose… Two Nationwide starts: ‘07- 27th, ‘08- 14th. Truck series: ‘06- 23rd. Y! C-2
23. Joey Logano… First career start in last year’s September race: started 40th, finished 32nd. Two ‘07 wins in the East Series.
24. Juan Pablo Montoya… Four career starts: 22.8 average finish, never finished better than 17th.
25. Jamie McMurray… Eight straight starts without a top-10. ‘07- 16th, 11th. ‘08- 41st, 39th.
26. Elliott Sadler… Career-best fifth-place finish last year but only five top-10 finishes in 20 career starts.
27. Michael Waltrip… Finished second last year but 23rd or worse in three of the last four starts.
28. David Ragan… Four career starts: 25.5 average finish, never finished better than 15th.
29. Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. One Nationwide start last year: 10th. Y! C-3
30. AJ Allmendinger… Two DNFs in ‘08. One start in ‘07- 33rd. Truck series- ‘06- 13th, ‘07- 34th. Y! C-4
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. First two career starts last year: 39th, 30th (34.5 average finish)
32. Reed Sorenson… Started and finished sixth last year (his only top-10 in six career starts), finished 22nd in September.
33. Paul Menard… Four career starts: 28.3 average finish, never finished better than 21st.
34. Robby Gordon… Won in 11/01. Outside of the top-20 in eight of the last 11 races.
35. Patrick Carpentier… Won the pole ‘08. Finished 31st in both races last year.
36. Dave Blaney… Won the pole in ‘07. Four straight finishes of 29th or worse.
37. Joe Nemechek… Won 9/99. Seven straight races of 20th or worse, three DNFs.
38. David Stremme… Declining finishes in four straight career starts: ‘06- 11th, 20th. ‘07- 27th, 42nd.
39. Regan Smith… Four career starts: 29.5 average finish, never finished better than 23rd.
40. David Gilliland… Six career starts: 28.7 average finish, never finished better than 28th.
41. John Andretti… No starts in ‘08. One start in ‘07- DNF.
42. Scott Speed… No starts at New Hampshire.
43. Mike Wallace… Ten career starts, none since ‘05: 30.2 average finish.
44. Tony Raines… Six career starts: 25.8 average finish, never finished better than 20th.
45. Dexter Bean… No starts at New Hampshire.
46. Ted Christopher… Six lifetime Cup starts, none since ‘06, five at New Hampshire: all DNFs. Four Nationwide starts (’97-’00): two DNFs, 18th, 12th

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Lenox Industrial Tools 301 from Loudon

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmy Johnson	9	7.3
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmy Johnson	9	8.6
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Kurt Busch	3	9.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	2	10.4
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	2	10.9
Dennis Mickelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	19	11.7
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	David Reutimann	4	12.3
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	5	12.4
Eric Brewer		Denny Hamlin	15	12.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	5	12.9
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	3	13
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	3	13.4
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	29	14.6
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Tony Stewart	5	16.1
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Tony Stewart	5	16.4
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	17.2
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	17.9

Champs Can Trip Up At Dover

In the Chase For The Cup, winning isn’t everything. Oh sure, Jimmie Johnson tried to prove me wrong last year. But, substitute his run with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finishes, he still wins the title. No, in the Chase consistency is king. Everyone is entitled to slip up, but make sure it happens early. As Johnson said after Loudon, you don’t really know how it’ll shake out until about Kansas.

Dover has seen Chasers win each race since 2004, yet the eventual champion has, with the exception of Kurt Busch, has had a rather pedestrian finish. That trend could always change, but thus far it has held up. Just something to keep in mind with just 9 races remaining in the year. I hope you saved your fantasy starts for the top drivers at the end. The numbers prove me right:

The winners:
2007 – Carl Edwards
2006 – Jeff Burton
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Ryan Newman

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 13th
2005 – Tony Stewart 18th
2004 – Kurt Busch 5th

There are 4 drivers I like to either win or secure a top finish at Dover based on how well they run and their previous records at the track. Those drivers are Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Kyle Busch. Each driver has won at Dover before, with Burton and Edwards winning the ’06 and ’07 races. Biffle and Busch have won spring Dover races and each have 2nd-place Chase finishes here. One driver I say to stay away from is Jimmie Johnson. Sure, Johnson won here in ’05. Yet look at his previous finishes. I don’t like the way he has run here recently, and the recent performance is what I’m looking at. You’d be better-served saving him for Kansas, Charlotte, or Martinsville.

I have a few sleepers to keep an eye on as well. The first is Mark Martin. He does nothing but run up front at Dover. Last season running part-time, he finished 4th. The team and car this year have been good on the smaller tracks. The second sleeper is Jamie McMurray. Despite having his team raided pre-Chase, he always seems to run well at Dover. For those brave souls that don’t mind taking a risk I’d almost say Juan Pablo Montoya. Just call it a hunch. He didn’t run bad last year and was racier than he has been most of the year at Loudon. Maybe he has a little momentum on his side.

Finally, the song for Dover is “Push” by Matchbox Twenty. Like the song says, “It’s not over, no not here.” That, and it’s hard to find a song about Delaware.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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