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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte - Coca Cola 600

The schedule this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is finally back to normal–in my mind at least. There will be a practice session held on Thursday afternoon and qualifying will be held later that night. Friday will be an off-day for the drivers, but Saturday they will get two practice sessions to perfect their cars for the big race on Sunday night. The Coca Cola 600 is the longest race (in terms of mileage) for the 2011 season, and Charlotte is definitely known for producing some very exciting racing.

During The Last Points-Paying Race At Charlotte…Kyle Busch led 217 laps but it was Jamie McMurray crossing the finish line first. Busch went on to follow him, and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Greg Biffle rounded out the top five. In last year’s spring race (the 2010 Coca Cola 600), the elder Busch brother (Kurt) led 252 laps after starting second and picked up his second–and ultimately final–win of the season. McMurray finished 2nd in that race, while Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann closed out the top five. McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to post top ten finishes in both races at Charlotte Motor Speedway during the two points-paying races in 2010. In last weekend’s All-Star Race, Carl Edwards won the $1 million dollar prize followed by Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Tony Stewart, and Greg Biffle.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Now that the schedule is back to normal, I would put a lot of emphasis on average practice speeds and ten-lap averages during the final two sessions to determine your rosters. Here’s how each driver did in practice last fall at Charlotte and how they finished. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards were both two of the fastest in average speed for the recent All-Star race, and one went on to win the race (Edwards) while Biffle finished 5th. Tony Stewart had the best ten-lap average during the All-Star practice and wound up finishing a solid 4th. Be sure to check out my practice breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com this week, as it will be more telling as to who has a good car than the recent ones have.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been pretty much untouchable all season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. As you know, Edwards won the All-Star Race last weekend, and while he’s not stellar at Charlotte by any means, he does have an average finish of 11.3 in points-paying races here. He finished 3rd at Texas and won at Las Vegas, so expect Edwards to fight for the win on Sunday night, especially after not getting the finish he deserved at Dover.

2. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has never won at Charlotte–and that includes All-Star Races. He is, however, on a seven-race streak of top 10s in points paying races at this track, and the only reason his average career finish here is so low (15.2) is because he wasn’t very good at this track early in his Sprint Cup career. The race is 600 miles on Sunday night (and that doesn’t include practice), so Kyle better hope that the Gibbs engine problem is solved or he will severely disappoint fantasy owners on Sunday night. Busch finished 2nd to Edwards in the All-Star Race last weekend.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has four straight top 10s at Charlotte and I fully expect that streak to continue this weekend. He finished 6th in the All-Star Race (out of 21) and has a little momentum after “stealing” a win in Dover. His driver rating at Charlotte over the past two years is fourth-best in the series, so Kenseth isn’t getting good finishes here just by dumb luck. He won here in 2000 and has finished outside of the top twenty just 6 times in his 23 career starts at this track.

4. Jimmie Johnson -In the eight points-paying races at Charlotte from 2003 to 2006, “Five Time” finished in the top three in every single race. His career average finish here is right around 9th and he owns six wins at this track. You probably wonder why–with those numbers–Jimmie isn’t ranked number one this week. Well, he didn’t run well at all in the All-Star Race (11th-place finish), and while I know that that race doesn’t particularly translate to how someone will run during the actual race, it’s still the same track. There has never been a points-paying race at Charlotte–that Johnson participated in–that he didn’t lead a lap, so expect JJ to challenge for the lead at least once on Sunday night.

5. Greg Biffle - Load up on the Roush Fords this weekend! They “Big Three” in that stable all looked great in the All-Star Race, and “The Biff” ended up 4th after starting 3rd. His career average finish at Charlotte is 15.5 and he finished 4th at Texas in April. Greg has never won here, but he does have six top 10s in his 16 career starts at this track. He’s been pretty good for the entire season this year, and if you take away some of the problems they had (like the fuel issue at Vegas), could easily be in the top eight in points.

6. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is either going to challenge for a top five on Sunday night, or he’s going to finish in the 30s. I don’t particularly like Red Bull Racing at Charlotte, but his teammate has found some success in that equipment. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is right around 13th and he won both races here in 2006. As long as his equipment holds up and nothing crazy happens to the #4 Toyota on Sunday night, a good finish should be expected.

7. Tony Stewart - It’s almost summer, and that’s the time when “Smoke” really starts running well. He finished a respectable 4th in the All-Star Race last weekend, and Tony hasn’t posted a top ten finish in the last six points-paying races at Charlotte, I could easily see that changing this weekend. He has one win here–that came in 2003–and Stewart’s career average finish at this track is 12.2. Watch Stewart’s average speed during practice, as well as his ten-lap average. If he’s near the top in both of those, stick him on your roster.

8. Jeff Gordon - Gordon hasn’t had a top ten since Talladega, so this ranking may be a bit high. If he practices just decent or even below-average, avoid him this week. I don’t like how Gordon is running this season, and pretty much the only time I will take him is if he surprises me in practice. At Charlotte, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six races and owns a career average finish right around 15th–including five wins. In his twenty career top 10s at this track, sixteen have been top 5s, so expect a really strong run or a disappointing finish out of Gordon this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin - Like I said before, the Gibbs stable better hope that their engines can last for the longest race of the season. Hamlin’s career average finish at Charlotte is 14.6 and he finished 4th here in the fall after ending up 18th in 2010’s Coca Cola 600. The former has been his best finish ever here (All-Star Race included), so don’t expect Hamlin to challenge for the win, but a top ten is possible. He ended up 7th in the All-Star Race last weekend out of 21.

10. Kevin Harvick - I really didn’t know how to rank Harvick this week, so this is probably going to be one of the drivers that will either go way up or way down when I make my post-qualifying predictions. He finished 11th and 8th in the two Charlotte races during the 2010 season, but that was last year when he was having a remarkable season overall. His career average finish at this track is 17.2, but you never know where “The Closer” will end up when it’s all said and done. He finished 9th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

11. Mark Martin - I’m still not liking how Martin is running this season, which is why I have him ranked 11th. He has been good here recently, with a worst finish of 17th over the past four races, but I just don’t see him doing anything spectacular on Sunday night. Martin’s average finish over the course of career at Charlotte Motor Speedway has been right around 15th, and I think he will finish between 11th and 15th on Sunday night.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finished 2nd at Texas in April and has two top 10s in his past three starts at Charlotte. His best finish here came in 2007 when he finished 2nd and Clint finished 2nd in the All-Star Race last weekend after starting 2nd. A finish between 12th and 15th is likely for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cracked the top ten. He has six top 10s in the last seven races of the year, so he definitely has momentum on his side.

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Logano’s best track, but I don’t think that he will finish as good as his career average finish (6.9). He has three top 10s in his four career starts at Charlotte with a worst finish of 13th, which came last year in the Coca Cola 600. With the way his season has been going, I probably won’t pick him this week, but you can’t go against Joey’s history at this track. He finished 5th in the Showdown last weekend.

14. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s season has to turn around eventually..right? He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season, and while I don’t think that he will repeat anywhere near that on Sunday night, this is his third-best track on the circuit (with an average finish of 15th) and a top fifteen is definitely possible. Be sure to watch the #1 Chevy in practice. McMurray finished 17th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

15. David Reutimann - Statistically, this is Reutty’s best track, so he should definitely be in the back of your mind all week. He won 2009’s Coca Cola 600 (although it was rain-shortened) and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since then, including 5th and 9th-place efforts last season. He finished 3rd in the All-Star Race out of 21.

Underdogs Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Regan Smith - Statistically, Charlotte is Smith’s second-best track, and he hasn’t been too terrible for being a C-list driver in Yahoo! He finished 13th here last fall after a 19th-place effort in last year’s Coca Cola 600, and in Regan’s four career starts here, his worst finish has been 23rd.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose usually races very well in the Showdown races, but that success doesn’t translate to actual points-paying races. He finished 4th at Las Vegas and 6th at Texas, though, so make sure you watch the #9 Ford in practice.

David Ragan - I really like how Ragan is racing this season and his car looked great when he won the Showdown last weekend. The #6 Ford wound up 8th in the All-Star Race, ahead of Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson. In the last six points-paying races at this track, David has three top 10s and he finished 7th at Texas in April.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two finishes of 5th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but he’s pretty inconsistent–and Red Bull Racing is as well. He has three top tens in the last four races, and if he has a good car on Sunday night, Brian could make that four of five.

Those To Avoid Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior just isn’t very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He looked average in both the Showdown and the All-Star Race, and Little E hasn’t posted a top ten in a points-paying race here since early 2008. Over the past two years, drivers such as Casey Mears, Scott Speed, and Robby Gordon have better average finishes than Earnhardt at this track. Robby Gordon! Pass on the 88 this weekend. He finished 14th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Jeff Burton - In the last four points-paying races at Charlotte, Jeff Burton has posted three finishes in the 20s. Those finishes aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships, so stay away from him this week. I would say a mid-teens finish for Burton this week would be the best that he could do.

Kurt Busch - I understand that Kurt Busch was very solid here last spring, but it seems like week in and week out lately the “double deuce” isn’t running up to potential. He’s either really good here or really bad, but and the only way I would recommend him this week would be if he qualified up front and looked great in practice. Kurt finished 13th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski - BK has had a couple of good races recently at Darlington and Dover, but I’m going to wait a while until I really believe that the chemistry between him and crew chief Paul Wolfe will translate to a bunch of success in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski finished 20th and 27th at the two Charlotte races in 2010. He finished 18th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Richmond - Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

Now that we’ve gone a week without Sprint Cup Series action, the boys are back for some Saturday night racing at Richmond International Raceway. The race at this 0.75-mile track will be the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400 presented by Crown Royal. The former won Crown Royal’s “Your Name Here 400″ program, which allows people to submit their candidates that they feel are most deserving for the honor. Matthew Hansen is a marine and the award will be for his brother, Daniel, who was also a marine and recently passed away.

This week’s race will be ran on Saturday night (don’t forget to set your fantasy picks on time) and 400 laps are scheduled to be run, equaling 300 miles. Two practice sessions are scheduled to be held on Friday afternoon with qualifying later that night. Next week will be another Saturday night race at Darlington Raceway. The series will be back at Richmond International Raceway in September for the final race of NASCAR’s “regular season.”

During The Last Race At Richmond…Denny Hamlin led 251 of the 400 laps ran en route to his sixth win of the season. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Marcos Ambrose rounded out the top five that night. If you were wondering what the correlation between average practice speed and results were that night, click here. In the spring race at this track last season, Kyle Busch started from the pole and stayed there all night, leading 226 laps before taking the checkered flag ahead of Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. The only drivers to post top ten finishes in both Richmond races in 2010 were: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, and Jimmie Johnson. Busch was the only one of those to finish in the top five in both races.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Once again, no practice will be held after qualifying, so I’m not sure how important those speeds will be. Qualifying will be decently important this week, as none of the top four qualifiers in either race last season finished worse than 15th. Kyle Busch pretty much owns this track, so I wouldn’t recommend going against him this week.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

1. Kyle Busch - If you somehow believe that “Rowdy” won’t finish in the top five this weekend, I’d love to hear your argument. He’s finished every single lap ran in the races that he has started at this track and in those twelve starts, he has ten top 5s–which is good for an average finish of 5.3. Busch’s worst finish at Richmond is 20th and last year he finished 1st and 2nd at this track. Love him or hate him, Kyle Busch is going to be one of the best picks this weekend.

2. Clint Bowyer - Clint has finished 2nd in the past two races this season (why not go for three?) and is on a streak of four top 10s after his less-than-stellar start to the season. Statistically, Richmond is Bowyer’s best track, where he owns an average finish of 9.8 and one win. That is his only top five at this track but he one finish outside of the top 12 in his ten career starts here, and that was an 18th. Like Kyle Busch, Clint has finished every lap that has been ran in his career at this track, and his average driver rating of 101.7 over the past four races here is good for fourth-best in the series.

3. Denny Hamlin - The only reason I put Bowyer ahead of Hamlin is because of how the #11 team’s season is going. Luck hasn’t been on his side much, but that could easily change this weekend. Denny has made ten starts at Richmond and has two wins and an average finish of 8th. He’s led 1,150 laps in those ten races, which is over 28 percent of the laps ran. Hamlin’s worst finish at this track came in 2008 when he finished 24th, but he led 381 laps that day and a flat tire and penalty gave him the poor finish. Unless he runs into more bad luck (which is very possible), expect a good run from Hamlin on Saturday.

4. Jeff Gordon - This ranking will probably end up being too high for Gordon once it gets closer to race day, but you can’t ignore Gordon’s recent success at this track. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th since 2006 and half of those eight races were top fives. Jeff has 36 starts at Richmond with 23 top tens to his name and two wins. I don’t like how Gordon has ran this season, so I will be cautious with picking him, but you can make up your own opinion on him.

5. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is generally a good pick at short tracks and this week is no exception. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009, Newman has finished 4th, 10th, 8th, and 11th at Richmond and earlier this season, he has finished 5th at Phoenix and 10th at Bristol (both tracks are 1-mile or less). Ryan has started eighteen races at Richmond and owns an average finish of 11.4 and one win (in the 2003 season). He has also finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his career at this track.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This will be Junior’s best chance to snap his winless streak until the series visits Michigan International Speedway in June. Little E has an average finish of around 14th at this track in his 23 career starts and has visited victory lane three times in Richmond. He hasn’t found much success here lately, though, with a best finish of just 21st in the past four races. I expect that to change, though, because Earnhardt Jr. seems to be for real this season: he hasn’t finished worse than 12th since the Daytona 500.

7. Juan Montoya - It took a while for Montoya to find success at Richmond, but he has three top 10s in his past four starts at the track. He’s been a little hit-or-miss this season, though, so make sure he has a good car before picking him. Montoya has the 7th-best average driver rating over the past two years at this track and finished 4th at Martinsville (the most recent short track race).

8. Jimmie Johnson - The #48 Chevrolet is either good here or really bad, and I never like going against any team after a win (even if it was at a restrictor-plate track). Johnson has won here three times in his 18 career starts, but also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. Statistically, this is The Champ’s second-worst track, with an average finish of 16.9. He has finished in the top eleven in four of his past five starts here, though, and I don’t think it will be four of six after this weekend.

9. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races at Richmond and has finished in the top 12 in twelve of the last thirteen. His average career finish at this track is 12th, which makes it his fourth-best on the circuit. He won here in 2006, but has just five top 5s to his name at Richmond (compared to thirteen top 10s) in his twenty starts. Harvick’s finishes at the tracks 1-mile or less this season (Phoenix, Bristol, and Martinsville) have been: 4th, 6th, and 1st.

10. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl isn’t stellar here by any means, but he has gotten some good finishes recently at Richmond. Edwards’ career average finish at this track is 16.9 (statistically his fourth-worst) but he has two top 10s in a row here and has finished in the top 15 in five of his last six starts. This season Carl has an average finish of 8.3, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, a top ten isn’t out of the question.

11. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has struggled at Richmond recently, but when you look at his history here it’s hard to go against him. He has three wins at Richmond (and four 2nd-place finishes) in his 24 career starts, and while he hasn’t had a top ten here since May 2009, Tony has finished outside of the top 20 at this track just four times. Stewart hasn’t a top ten this season since early March, so he doesn’t have much momentum, but he’s pretty much a lock for a top 15 and will get a top 10 if he has a good car.

12. Kurt Busch - Busch’s average finish of 17.8 at Richmond is nothing to be excited about, but he won here in 2005 and has finished worse than 18th just once since 2006. The “Double Deuce” started off the season fast, and while the #22 team aren’t having stellar runs as of late, they are being consistent–with a worst finish of 18th.

13. Matt Kenseth - Up until Talladega, Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. were the only two drivers to finish in the top 12 in every race since Daytona. Obviously, Junior’s streak is still alive, but I think Kenseth will start another streak this week. He’s finished in the top 14 in three of his past four starts at Richmond and won here in 2002. Matt hasn’t earned a top ten since 2007 at this track, so don’t expect that, but a top fifteen is well within reach for the #17 Ford on Saturday night.

14. Jeff Burton - I’m going to wait until Burton at least gets a top ten before I even start recommending him. His average finish at Richmond has been 14.4 over his 33 career starts and Jeff has won one race here: back in 1998. Burton has three top 10s in his past five starts at this track, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, he could get a top fifteen.

15. Joey Logano - Speaking of top tens, “Sliced Bread” got his first of the season in Talladega and will look to ride that small wave of momentum into Richmond. He’s found success at this track in his Sprint Cup career, with a worst finish of 19th in his four career starts, and he got a 4th-place finish last fall after starting 6th. I thought he had the best car at the end of the race last fall, so maybe that will translate into a good run on Saturday.

Underdogs Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

Marcos Ambrose - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ambrose got his third top ten of the season on Saturday night. He finished 9th in 5th in the races at Richmond in 2010 and recorded finishes of 11th and 22nd in his rookie season. Statistically, this is Marcos’ second-best track on the circuit.

Brad Keselowski - Kes has always qualified well here, with top ten efforts in each of his three starts at this track, and he had some decent race runs last season at Richmond, with finishes of 14th and 15th. Watch to see how his car is in ten-lap average before forming your roster around him

David Reutimann - Reutty will be a risky pick as always this weekend because he is so hit-or-miss. He usually has an awesome car or is just decent and disappoints his fantasy owners. Reutimann got a top ten at Richmond in 2008 and finished 15th and 19th in the races held here last season after starting 2nd and 5th, respectively.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two poles here in his twelve starts and two top tens as well, although one of them came in a different race. He finished 15th and 7th in the 2009 races at Richmond and posted a 20th-place finish in the spring 2010 race before blood clots ended Vickers’ season early.

Those To Avoid Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

A.J. Allmendinger - This Richard Petty Motorsports driver could have a good run this weekend, but one run doesn’t make someone a good racer at a track. The ‘Dinger ended up 8th in the fall race last season after finishing 17th in the spring race. But was that top ten a fluke? His career average finish here is 25.8.

Kasey Kahne - Kahne won at Richmond in 2005 but his average career finish here is 19.0 and he hasn’t had a top ten since early 2008. There are much better weeks to use Kahne.

David Ragan - Last week at Talladega was the week to use Ragan (and I was just as disappointed as everyone else when he went behind the wall). He finished 3rd here in 2007 but that is Ragan’s only finish above 17th in his eight starts at this track.

Regan Smith - He may get you some qualifying bonus points in Yahoo!, but don’t expect a good race out of Smith this week (as usual). His best finish here is 21st and his average finish in his five starts at this track is 27.8.

Be sure to check out NASCAR Nation and follow me on Twitter for last minute fantasy advice.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Bristol - Jeff Byrd 500

Now that the off-weekend has passed, the Sprint Cup Series will have points-paying races for the next two months straight. In honor of the passing of Bristol Motor Speedway’s long-time president and general manager last October, the event at “The Bullring” this weekend will be named the Jeff Byrd 500 Presented by Food City. Five-hundred laps are set to be run on this 0.533-mile racetrack, and there should be very few that aren’t exciting. Only one of the past five races here have gone past the scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At Bristol…Kyle Busch started 19th but quickly made his way to the front and wound up leading 282 laps before taking the checkered flag–his fourth win at this track. To the surprise of many, David Reutimann backed up his top five qualifying effort with a 2nd-place finish, while Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five. The spring race at Bristol saw Jimmie Johnson get the win, even though Kurt Busch led the most laps that day (278).

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…This is the week to take an underdog or two, as it seems one of them always finds their way to the front (Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose come to mind). On Friday, a practice session will be held (disregard these speeds) and then qualifying. There will then be two practices held on Saturday, which will help you get an idea of who is fast because they will all be in race trim. Starting position definitely helps on this track, but if a driver has a good car and starts in the back, he should be able to stay on the lead lap and eventually get up to the front. During the last race at Bristol, half of the top ten finishers started outside of the top ten.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kyle Busch - Remember a few weeks ago at Phoenix how good Jimmie Johnson was at that track? Same thing here at Bristol with Kyle Busch. “Rowdy” has won three of the past five races at this short track, and his other two finishes were 2nd and 9th. In those five starts, Kyle has led 45.7% of the laps ran. His best starting spot in his career here is 9th, though, so don’t expect a pole run on Friday. Since 2006, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 17th–and that was his only run outside of the top ten. His career average finish of 9.3 at Bristol is best in the series. You will gain major points by leaving Busch off your roster if something happens to him–as most people this week will pick him–but are you willing to take that risk?

2. Kurt Busch - Like “Shrub”, Kurt Busch is an awesome pick at Bristol as well. From 2002 through 2004, the elder Busch brother won four races here in five starts. I made the mistake of leaving him off my fantasy rosters during that time, trying to gain major points in the off-chance his wins were a fluke. They weren’t. Kurt’s results haven’t been as good since joining Penske Racing, but they haven’t been terrible either. He’s on a streak of three top 10s at Bristol and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 since the spring race in 2007. Look for the points leader to  have another solid top ten finish this week, if not a top five.

3. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was just one of three drivers to score five top 10s in the six short track races last year. He’s also off to a very hot start this season, with a win last week in Las Vegas and cars capable of winning in all three races (according to him anyway). He’s won here at Bristol twice and posted finishes of 12th and 6th in 2010. Since 2006, Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 16th. Will the 99 team bring another super-fast Ford to Tennessee this week?

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you would have told me before Daytona that Junior would have two top tens (and one of them wasn’t at Daytona) and be 10th in points after three races, I would have called you crazy, but lo and behold, it’s true. The team switches at Hendrick Motorsports seem to have benefited Dale Jr the most–thus far–and he’s on a roll coming into his best track (statistically). Little E hasn’t finished worse than 18th since 2001 and has collected one win at this track (coming in 2004). His career average finish here is 11.5 and his last three finishes at “The Bullring” have been 13th, 7th, and 9th. This ranking may be high to some, but Junior is off to a great start this season and definitely knows how to get around this track (he had seven top 10s in eight starts from 2004 to 2008). I think Junior’s momentum will translate into a top five this week (and maybe even a win).

5. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” won the pole here last April, but it was Kyle Busch who went on to win the race. Johnson led 175 laps but finished a disappointing 35th in that race because he got wrecked by Juan Montoya. Jimmie’s previous three starts before last fall gave him finishes of 1st, 8th, and 3rd, but from 2005 to 2008 (eight races) he had only two top ten finishes. I think there are better picks than Johnson this week, but it’s hard to go against a guy who has won five straight championships. I don’t think the 48 team has been running very well at all in 2010, either, so pay attention to the car in practice. Johnson has started in the top five in three of the last four races in “Thunder Valley” and has had the second-best driver rating over that span, though, so it’s not like he hasn’t ran well at this track.

6. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” won’t lead a bunch of laps, but don’t be surprised if he posts a solid finish around 6th. In the past seven races at Bristol, Newman has finished 6th or 7th in five of them. When he doesn’t have strong race, though, it’s usually a pretty bad finish (in eight finishes outside of the top ten, six of them have been 30th or worse). The 39 Chevrolet has two straight top tens, and you know I like momentum early in the season.

7. Greg Biffle - “The Biff” disappointed many fantasy owners last week–well, I guess it was his gas man–but don’t expect another sub-par finish this week. The 16 Ford found the top ten in both Bristol races in 2010, and in six of the past eight (the other two were 39th and 11th-place efforts). Biffle has made sixteen career starts in “Thunder Valley” and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. This is his second-best track statistically behind Kansas. Good pick this week? Yes, as long as they got that fuel problem figured out over the break.

8. Matt Kenseth - Like Biffle, this Roushkateer was on a bunch of rosters in Vegas but didn’t have that great of a race. I expect Kenseth to have a good week in Bristol, though: he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s here and has finished there in five of the last six. I have liked the Roush-Fenway Fords in the first three races of 2011, and that hasn’t changed this week. Kenseth won here in 2006, but since then he hasn’t led a lap at “The Bullring” and just one top five. As usual with the 17, pick him if he qualifies near the front (top 15).

9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a great season in 2010, but his Bristol races were less than stellar (19th and 34th-place finishes). Before that, though, he had four straight finishes between 2nd and 6th. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate is arguably the best here, so one can expect those two teams to help each other. Denny changed an engine last week and came back to record a solid top ten, and they say Las Vegas is the place to start streaks. One food for thought, though: is there something wrong with the Gibbs engines? In addition to Hamlin having to switch engines last week, teammate Joey Logano had engine difficulties in Phoenix and the other Gibbs racer, Kyle Busch, blew an engine at Vegas.

10. Jeff Burton - Does anybody need a good run more than this guy? I know I said the same thing last week, but when will the bad luck end (if you even consider this luck)? Burton is 32nd in points after last week’s 21st-place run at Las Vegas, right in front of Casey Mears by five points (even though Mears has started one less race). I’d like to see the 31 crew look more competitive thus far in the season to recommend him, but the spring race has been kind to them recently: the last four March races have given Burton top tens in each, including a win (2008) and a runner-up finish (2007). One last note: make sure the 31 Chevrolet is fast before putting it on your final roster, though.

11. Jeff Gordon - I expect Gordon will qualify well (his career average start here is 6.8) but won’t stay up front very long. In the last eight races here, Gordon has led only eleven laps, and while he has five wins in “Thunder Valley,” the last one was in 2002. In the last seven races here, Gordon owns just two top tens. He finished 11th and 14th here in 2010, and I think he will fall in right around there on Sunday. Jeff has won five poles at Bristol, though, so he could gain you some valuable bonus points in the Yahoo! game.

12. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is usually hit or miss at Bristol, but I love picking him when he’s on a roll and I love picking drivers that have momentum to start the season. After last week’s disappointing 2nd-place finish, Stewart comes into a track where he has won before (in 2001) and owns eight top 10s. He finished runner-up to Johnson in the spring race last year and from 2006 to 2008 Stewart led over 30% of the laps ran on this 0.533-mile track. He knows how to get around here, but he will be a risky pick this week. Watch him in practice, and if he is fast in average practice speed, pick him (trust me).

13. Kevin Harvick - If you read anything I said about Harvick in the off-season, you know I don’t expect a lot out of him this year. He’s had good runs, but like his teammate Burton, luck hasn’t been on Happy’s side (but his performance at Phoenix was very impressive). Harvick has one win (2005) and has finished runner-up four times at Bristol, but hasn’t cracked the top ten in the last four races. His career average finish here is 12.3, though, so he knows how to get around the track.

14. Clint Bowyer - He doesn’t have a top ten this season yet, but that could change this weekend. Bowyer ran 4th in the fall race here in 2010 and during the four races in 2007 and 2008, he rattled off four straight top tens. Clint’s best finish at Bristol has been 3rd, which he has done twice (that is also his best starting spot). In ten career races in “Thunder Valley,” Bowyer has usually finished around 16th while starting around 20th.

15. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s average finish in his first four starts at this track was an impressive 7.3, but over the next twelve races, that quickly plummeted to 18.3. He has had good runs here recently, though, with top ten finishes in both Bristol races in 2010 and an 11-th place effort in the fall race during the 2009 season. I doubt he’ll get a top ten this week, but a top fifteen isn’t out of the question.

Underdogs Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Marcos Ambrose - As you may know, I love keeping Ambrose in my mind when it comes to short tracks. The Tasmanian posted two top ten finishes here in his first two starts, but slipped back last year with 33rd and 20th-place efforts. Will he return to 2009 form? They say Las Vegas is a place to start streaks, and Ambrose had an awesome run there.

Paul Menard - I don’t think many people expected Menard to be 6th in points after three races, or be the best driver (thus far) in the Richard Childress Racing stable. Coming off a 12th-place finish at Vegas, I could see Menard getting a career-best finish at Bristol (his current one is 16th in 2008). He has finished worse than 25th only once in seven career starts in “Thunder Valley”.

David Reutimann - He ran strong here the last time the series visited the track, finishing 2nd to Kyle Busch. Will he be able to repeat that performance? Reutty got his best finish of the season in Las Vegas, coming home 13th. He usually qualifies well at Bristol and the last four races here have given Reutimann finishes of 2nd, 38th, 17th, and 12th. A solid top twenty is expected.

Brad Keselowski - Believe it or not, Bristol is Keselowski’s fourth-best track (statistically). He’s raced here twice and finished 19th and 13th. Kurt Busch put some up great runs in the “Blue Deuce” at this track, can BK continue the tradition?

Those To Avoid Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Mark Martin - I have been on the Martin “bandwagon” for the last eight or so Sprint Cup races, but I am officially jumping off. It’s obvious he got the short end of the stick at Hendrick, as his finishes have been average at best this season (even though it usually seems it has a good car). Martin has won the pole here in two of the past four races, so you may pick him to get the bonus points in the Yahoo! game, but I think this week will yield another disappointing ending for Mark Martin fantasy owners: he has just three top tens in his past sixteen Bristol starts.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” may look like a good pick this week based on his qualifying efforts at Bristol (average start of 8.8 in four starts), but don’t let that fool you: he’s never finished on the lead lap here and his best finish is 18th. The 20 crew needs a good week to turn their season around, but I don’t see that happening in “Thunder Valley”.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger’s last two spring starts at Bristol have given him 17th and 16th-place finishes, but his five other starts have seen him end up worse than 30th. A.J. slipped in the points after Las Vegas, and I expect him to fall a little further once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

Bobby Labonte - Labonte should settle into his expected final points position after this week. Ambrose put up a good run in this car last year, but Bobby couldn’t even figure out this track when he was in his prime. In 36 starts at Bristol, Labonte has just ten top tens and an average finish of 20.4.

Anything can happen at Bristol, so don’t take it too hard if you have a bad fantasy week (we all have a couple). Don’t forget to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Las Vegas - Kobalt Tools 400

Last week, Phoenix International Raceway lived up to it’s expectations in the past few years and ended yet another long winless streak, with Jeff Gordon edging out Kyle Busch in the final laps to score his first victory since 2009. This week, the Sprint Cup drivers head over to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 400. This 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” track has been kind to last week’s winner as of late, with Gordon leading over 40-percent of the laps in the past two races in Vegas.

During The Last Race At Las Vegas…Jeff Gordon led a race-high 219 laps (out of 267) after starting 2nd, but it was Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson who ended the day in victory lane. Kevin Harvick finished runner-up that day, while Gordon, Mark Martin, and Matt Kenseth rounded out the top five. Click here for the complete results of last year’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…You probably either had an average points day at Phoenix last week, or dug your hole a little bit deeper, but now we’re getting into the bulk of the season, with three of the next five races being on 1.5-mile tracks. Make sure you pay attention to who qualifies well here, as two of the previous three winners at this track have started on the front row. There will be a practice held after qualifying this week, so be sure to look at the average speeds during Happy Hour to help form your rosters.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

1. Jeff Gordon - At the beginning of each NASCAR season, momentum seems to help drivers for the first few races. After a rocky start at Daytona, Gordon went and won in the desert last week, and will ride that momentum into one of his better tracks (especially lately). Jeff led the most laps in last year’s Vegas race, but didn’t get the win, and has finished outside of the top six just once here since 2005. With one win already at this 1.5-mile track, Gordon could easily make that two this week.

2. Kyle Busch - He didn’t get the sweep last week at Phoenix, but “Rowdy” left with the points lead and he and his brother are the only two drivers on the circuit with top tens in the first two races of the season. Kyle has two poles in his preview three starts at Vegas, and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen here since his rookie year. Busch’s average finish of 11.7 at this track is fourth-best in the series.

3. Jimmie Johnson - “The Champ” has made nine career starts at Las Vegas, and has led at least one lap in all but one of them. He’s still outside of the top twelve in points, but don’t expect that to be the case after Sunday. Johnson’s last six races here have netted him four wins, and while the other two were 24th and 29th-place finishes, those have been the only times Johnson has ended up outside of the top twenty in his career.

4. Jeff Burton - Richard Childress Racing needs to turn their season around quick, and Vegas could easily be the track for that to happen. Three of the four Childress Chevrolets are outside of the top twenty in points, and Burton finds himself mired in 32nd, with finishes of 36th and 26th to start the season. At Las Vegas, though, Jeff has just one finish outside of the top twenty in 13 career races, and two of his last three starts have ended with top fives. He has won here twice before, so don’t be surprised to find the 31 car up front on Sunday.

5. Greg Biffle - These “cookie cutter” tracks are where the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers are usually at their best, and Biffle is no exception. He had engine problems during his first start here in 2004 (giving him a 40th-place finish), but since then he hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has come away with five top tens. The Biff’s driver rating has been over 100 in five of his last six starts here.

6. Matt Kenseth - Another “Roushkateer” who should finish up front is Kenseth. Aside from his 43rd-place effort in 2009 (engine problem), the #17 Ford hasn’t finished outside of the top seventeen in eleven career starts. He has won here twice, and Matt has single-digit finishes in six of his previous eight races at Vegas. Look for Kenseth to get his first top ten of the season on Sunday, and possibly even a top five.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” was downright pissed at his pit crew last week in Phoenix, but the 29 team still battled back for a solid 4th-place finish even after being caught up in “The Big One”. Harvick hasn’t been stellar at Las Vegas, but in the past three races here his driver rating has averaged 106.4 and he has two top fives. His average finish of 12.8 here is ninth-best in the series.

8. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl really loved his car last week, and was very disappointed after wrecking it. He thought he had a car that could win last week, so hopefully Edwards brings that confidence into Vegas. He hasn’t finished worse than 26th here, but in six career starts he has only two top tens. He won here in 2008, though, and these are the kind of tracks he likes.

9. Mark Martin - Like Phoenix, Martin has been consistently good at Vegas. He won here in his first start and has ten top 10s in thirteen races here. His three races that didn’t end in top tens were 30th, 40th, and 43rd-place efforts, but two of those were due to engine problems. Mark finished 4th here in 2010 and has a career average finish of 12.8, which is 8th-best in the series at Las Vegas.

10. Denny Hamlin - In Denny’s first start at Las Vegas he came away with a 10th-place finish and went on to record three straight top tens here. In 2009, though, he ended that streak with a 22nd-place effort, and last year he finished 19th. He has never been stellar here, but Hamlin has completed all but one lap in his five starts at Vegas and will be looking for his first top ten of the season on Sunday. His career average finish here is 12.6, good enough for 6th-best in the series.

11. Joey Logano - Logano needs a good run pretty bad–as he finds himself 29th in points–and Las Vegas is an excellent track for him to get back on track. Engine woes ruined his race at Phoenix (and got him pretty angry), but he looked pretty good before that. Joey has made only two starts at Las Vegas, and has finishes of 6th and 13th to show for it. A good run will definitely turn his season around, and if he shows some speed in practice, a top ten isn’t out of the question for “Sliced Bread”.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Phoenix definitely isn’t Junior’s best track, but he managed to overcome a loose wheel problem last week and score his first top ten of the season. The crew chief swap at Hendrick seems to be helping Little E thus far, and a good run at Las Vegas will help him and crew chief Steve Letarte gel even more. Dale Jr. hasn’t finished outside of the top sixteen in his last four starts here and he finished runner-up to Edwards in 2008.

13. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has been a little hit or miss at Vegas lately, but he’s coming off a solid top ten at Phoenix and is third in points behind the Busch brothers. Since 2005, Stewart has three top tens, but three finishes outside of the top 20 as well. He did accumulate four top fives in his first six starts at Las Vegas though, so he knows how to get around the track. Tony finished 7th in this race last year.

14. Kasey Kahne - Red Bull Racing seems to run well at the “cookie cutter” races, and these tracks are a strength of Kahne. He backed up his solid qualifying effort and fast practice times with a 6th-place effort in Phoenix, and I think that will boost his confidence this week. He’s made seven starts at this track and has came away with four top ten finishes. Be careful, though: Kasey is on a “streak” here. Through his whole career, Kahne has posted single-digit finishes during even-numbered years (9th, 6th, 4th, 2nd). In odd-numbered years, though, all of his finishes have been in the double digits (11th, 35th, 38th).

15. Clint Bowyer - You will look at Clint’s last two finishes here (8th and 2nd) and wonder why I have him ranked so low, but he hasn’t impressed me. His other three starts ended with 28th, 36th, and 15th-place finishes, though, and his driver rating hasn’t been over 90 in five races here (his best was 89.4 last year when he finished 8th).

Underdogs Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

David Reutimann - You always have to watch out for Reutty on these “cookie cutter” tracks–he’s at his best on them. He got off to a rough start at Vegas with a 37th-place finish in 2008, but ended up 4th in 2009 and came home 13th last year. He’s mired back in points at 31st and needs a good run to get his season back on track.

Paul Menard - Some questioned how his move to Richard Childress Racing would fare, but Menard has had good runs since switching over. He’s 11th in points and was running near the top ten in Phoenix before going down a lap and finishing 17th. Menard had strong runs at “cookie cutter” tracks last year and finished a career-best 17th at Vegas while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports in 2010.

Bill Elliott - He won’t challenge for a top ten, but a 20th-place (or better) effort wouldn’t be surprising out of Elliott. He’s 18th in points and has finished outside of the top twenty only once in seven career starts at Vegas. He could be a nice pick in allocation leagues.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose was one of my underdogs last week and ended up 16th once it was all said and done. In two career starts at Las Vegas, Marcos has finishes of 14th and 20th. Kasey Kahne drove this car last year to a 9th-place effort at this track.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

Juan Montoya - Chances are he will look real fast in practice, and then disappoint on Sunday. In four career starts here, Montoya hasn’t finished better than 19th and over the last two years he has finishes of 37th and 31st.

Kurt Busch - Busch is off to a great start this season, but I expect him to take a hit in the points this week. He finished 3rd here in 2005, but since then he has posted finishes of: 16th, 26th, 38, 23rd, and 35th. He will look like a good pick on Friday (his average start here is 5.2), but don’t say I didn’t warn you when he disappoints you on Sunday.

David Ragan - Roush is always a good way to go with picks at “cookie cutter” tracks, but stay away from Ragan this week. He had a top ten here in 2008 but his other three starts at Vegas have ended in finishes of 23rd or worse.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger is 4th in points, but don’t expect him to stay that high after this weekend. In two career starts at Las Vegas, A.J. has finishes of 25th and 33rd. His average finish on similar tracks is 18.8.

After this race, the boys will have an off-weekend until they hit Bristol the following week. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation. I’m a member, why aren’t you?

Fantasy NASCAR 2011: Countdown to Daytona

For NASCAR fantasy game players preparing to map season-long strategies and draft their teams, one driver has been the consensus number one over-all pick for the last three seasons. Jimmie Johnson is, and has been, the man.

Johnson and his no. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet have won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup championships. The 2011 decision was still in doubt entering the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were in with a chance entering the race. But Johnson closed it out for his fifth consecutive series win.

During that five year run, Johnson has won 35 times and has an average finish of 10.8. The next closest driver in wins is Kyle Busch with 17. Johnson is number one in poles, top fives, top tens and average starting position.

Those stats are official. Unofficially, the no. 48 team has lead NASCAR in stability as well. No team has undergone fewer changes than crew chief Chad Knaus’operation. At least that was true until three races from the end of 2010, Knaus swapped his pit crew with that of the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsport car driven by Jeff Gordon.

That change was the first significant shakeup for the Johnson-Knaus team in five years. The move smacked of panic at the time and may signal that the championship run is running out of steam. Still, Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy points machine.

Jeff Gordon ran a solid, consistent, second statistically to Johnson during the 2010 season. His NASCAR Loop Datadriver rating - a combination of 13 key stat groups taken from NASCAR’s on-track scoring loops - was second to Johnson all year and Gordon’s average finish over the last five seasons is behind only to Johnson as well. Jeff Gordon’s problem is, he just doesn’t win anymore. His 11 top fives and 17 top tens were solid. Zero wins, four DNFs and one pole were a disappointment.

With three races to go, Gordon was out of contention for the Cup championship when his pit crew was given to teammate Johnson. The move did not improve the no. 24 team. More shakeups are ahead. There was a time when Jeff Gordon was always a good pick at any track. Things have changed.

The big challenge to Johnson came from Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin. With 8 wins, 2 poles, 14 top fives and 18 top tens, Hamlin overcame early season knee surgery to give Johnson a real challenge. Hamlin is nearly unbeatable in the state of Virginia, winning three of the four races at Martinsville and Richmond. He swept the pair at super fast Texas Motor Speedway too. And Pocono should be named after him.

Kevin Harvick will have a new sponsor for 2011. Budweiser will take the place of Shell Gasolines on the no. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy. Harvick had a remarkably consistent 2010 season. His 26 top tens were tops in the series and his average finish - 8.7 - was best by far. Three wins and 2 poles along with 16 top fives made Harvick a good fantasy pick in 2010. Two of Harvick’s wins came on restrictor plate tracks at Daytona and Talladega and over the last five years he has more wins and a better average finish than anyone on plate tracks.

Other than the sponsor switch, RCRis leaving Harvick’s team alone and that bodes well for 2011.

Carl Edwards almost single handedly saved 2010 for Ford Racing. Three Roush Racing Fords qualified for the Chase to the Sprint Cup and Edwards won the last two races of 2010. If you believe in momentum, the no. 99had it going into the off-season. The Bob Osborneled team has been very stable and Roush seems to have caught up with the COT programs of the Chevy and Toyota teams now. Carl Edwards is set for a return to eight or so wins and his best shot at a Sprint Cup yet.

JGR’s Kyle Busch will score big in 2011. Recently married and unable to contend for multiple NASCAR championships due to rule changes, Kyle is a top six pick in any one’s fantasy draft and is very tough at the high banked speedways like LasVegas, Charlotte and Atlanta.

Jamie McMurraywon three races and grabbed four poles in 2010 and was season’s biggest surprise. McMurray is very good on plate tracks and a great pick for either road course.

One breakout driver for 2011should be Joey Logano. Logano came on strong late in 2010 with one pole, seven top fives and 16 top tens.

Watch Kasey Kahne. Kahne has a one year contract to drive for Red Bull Racing in 2011 as he waits for his 2012 Hendrick Motorsportsseat. This is the best equipment Kahne has had in years and RedBull is capable of winning poles and races. I see great value in having Kasey Kahne on your roster.

Photo credit - Getty Images for NASCAR

2009 OPer Awards: Worst NASCAR Crew Chief

Let me lodge my official protest of the name for this OPeR. I want it on record that I lobbied for “Most Disappointing Performance by a NASCAR Crew Chief”.

Worst NASCAR crew chief doesn’t fit the purpose here.

That said, my pick of Steve Addington edged Steve’s choice of Tony Eury Jr, for whatever this award. Award?

I’m not sure who to blame. But in football, it’s usually the quarterback. And in racing, the crew chief.

Kyle Busch dominated the NASCAR statistics everywhere in NASCAR except in Cup. Kyle got a pass and Addington got the boot.

2009 OPer Awards: Best NASCAR Driver

No, Jimmie Johnson is not our pick as best NASCAR driver in 2009.

There are a ton of awards Johnson could legitimately grab. Hell he already has. But not this OPeR. Not this year.

Kyle Busch was NASCAR’s best driver in 2009.

20 wins combined in the top three NASCAR touring series did the trick. It didn’t hurt that The Shrub was following up a 22 win 2008 season either. Those two years could put Kyle Busch in the NASCAR Hall of Fame.

Rowdy didn’t make the Chase to the Sprint Cup. But won another OPeR. That should help. Shouldn’t it?

2009 OPeR Award: Best New NASCAR Rivalry

Everybody loves a NASCAR rivalry, it seems. Maybe even the rivals who are involved.

Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski developed one of the best ongoing battles in recent memory in 2009. And they kept a sense of humor about it too. Good stuff.

Runner up was the was the clash between Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers. But the verbal part of that one wasn’t as entertaining.

NASCAR Video from Bristol and a Martinsville Preview

We have some great NASCAR video snippets from the post race press conferences with Kyle Busch, Jimmy Johnson and Denny Hamlin for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway and several pre-race preview comments from Clint Bowyer, Bobby Labonte, Kurt Busch and Jeff Burton. Click here to watch them all.

These vids might just help you make your One and Done fantasy racing pick this week for the big paperclip.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Play Rattles From the Catch Can II: Win The Blount Report

NASCAR picked a lousy week to take off. At least for me. I’m pretty sure the teams aren’t having any problem with it. But talking and writing and complaining about the Kingdom of France helps me keep my mind off of more serious issues. It can get a bit depressing out here in the world lately.

So I decided it was time for another quiz. A second, Rattles from the Catch Can quiz to be more descriptive. You can play it right here.

If you do play, leave your email address when you’re finished and we’ll put your name in the hat - or I guess the Catch Can would be more appropriate - and the winner will get a copy of Terry Blount’s new book, “The Blount Report”.  Terry was a guest ON PIT ROW a couple weeks ago. The book is his take on the most underrated and overrated drivers, tracks, races and rules in NASCAR. I’ve read it. It will get your blood pumping, for sure.

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