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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Kobalt Toos 500 at Phoenix

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Regan Smith	38	12.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	1	14.63
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	1	16.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Regan Smith	38	16.06
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kasey Kahne	1	14.86
Eric McGuire	free agent	Mark Martin	16	16.20
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	1	15.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	1	13.20
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	33	22.31
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	13	17.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	20	12.97
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Trues Jr	20	14.91
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	16	15.31
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	13	13.49
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	13	12.57
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kasey Kahne	1	13.57
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	1	15.69
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Clint Bowyer	10	14.43

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Kobalt Tools 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	12.37
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	3	13.09
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	14	12.66
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	13.54
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	2	13.51
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	2	14.77
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	14	13.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	19	15.54
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.74
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	12.83
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	14	14.17
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.43
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	11.43
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	12.66
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.26
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	9.77
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.11
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Tony Stewart	3	14.06

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 - Kobalt Tools 500

As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Scouting Report: Phoenix

How to make an informed pick for the Kobalt Tools 500:

1) Practice will be extremely important this week and luckily we get to see two practice sessions before qualifying (weekend schedule of events). This will not be your typical Phoenix race weekend. The track changed in such significant ways that solely going off past Phoenix information will get you lapped this weekend. In fantasy racing it’s always best to go off the most recent data and none will be more relevant then practice this weekend.

2) Qualifying and track position will be a must at the newly reconfigured Phoenix International Raceway. In all of the driver interviews I’ve seen about the new track surface they all sounded hesitant that a second groove didn’t exist yet. However Phoenix track officials have been hard at work and have been artificially laying down rubber on the track so come race time this might be a non issue (Pictures). On Saturday there will also be a Nationwide race so I think a second groove will come in.

3) Since the new Phoenix layout is substantially different I’m choosing to study Richmond as a good reference point for how to approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. I think the new layout looks a lot more like Richmond then it does the old Phoenix.

Drivers to watch in the Kobalt Tools 500:

Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th).

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor.

(NOTE: All of these drivers participated in the August tire test and they all participated in the October open test).

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last five races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Greg Biffle
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Jimmie Johnson

VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Tony Stewart 5/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Greg Biffle 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 12/1
• Kyle Busch 12/1
• Kevin Harvick 15/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Phoenix International Raceway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Denny Hamlin	12	13.86
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	5	11.11
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	10.40
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	1	11.49
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.60
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	5	10.03
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	12	10.89
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	21	13.06
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.37
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	11.91
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	12	10.74
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.89
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	5	12.09
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	13	13.54
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	14.06
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	10.86
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.26
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	11.34
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	14.37

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at PIR

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Aric Almirola	27	15.89
James Jones	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	13.66
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	19.49
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	8	11.54
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	8	15.74
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Ryan NewmanDale Earnhardt Jr	214	13.5714.09
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	15.00
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jamie McMurray	10	12.34
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	3	14.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	14	13.51
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Joey Logano	3	14.94
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	8	14.94
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	16.00
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	17.89
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Ryan Newman	2	15.37
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	16.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	19.71
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	3	12.26

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 at Phoenix International Raceway

The mile-long flat track in the desert, Phoenix International Raceway, is a unique tri-oval that features a dogleg between Turn Two and Three. Although each flat track on the schedule (Martinsville Speedway, PIR, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway) all have their own unique elements, a driver with good braking skills can excel on all four.

Top drivers in 2010 races on flat tracks

	MVIL 1	PHX 1	RICH 1	NH 1	RICH 2	NH 2	MVIL2	AVG
Jeff Gordon	3	2	2	4	12	6	20	7.0
Jimmie Johnson	9	3	10	1	3	25	5	8.0
Kyle Busch	22	8	1	11	2	9	4	8.1
Denny Hamlin	1	30	11	14	1	2	1	8.6
Ryan Newman	4	1	8	6	11	8	30	9.7
Kevin Harvick	35	13	3	5	9	5	3	10.4
Carl Edwards	8	7	5	25	10	11	8	10.6
Clint Bowyer	7	9	12	7	6	1	38	11.4
Joey Logano	2	10	16	9	4	35	6	11.7
Jeff Burton	20	25	4	12	13	15	9	14.0
Matt Kenseth	18	6	13	17	14	23	15	15.1
Brad Keselowski	12	16	14	26	15	18	10	15.9
A.J. Allmendinger	38	15	17	10	8	12	12	16.0
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	15	12	32	8	34	4	7	16.0
Marcos Ambrose	11	11	9	13	5	30	34	16.1
Jamie McMurray	30	24	19	18	17	3	11	17.4
Mark Martin	21	4	25	21	20	29	2	17.4
Martin Truex, Jr.	5	17	7	22	22	20	29	17.4

Chasing the pole at Phoenix International Raceway

1. A.J. Allmendinger… Won the pole in April start at Phoenix. Started third, sixth in the last two starts at Richmond and Loudon.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya… Qualified seventh in April start at Phoenix. Started second, fifth and fifth in the last three starts at Richmond, Loudon and Martinsville.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Four-time winner (11/09, 08 sweep, 11/07) at Phoenix- eight straight Top Fives, has never held an average running position worse than 11th. Y!-A1
2. Denny Hamlin… Average running position of ninth or better in seven of 10 career starts at Phoenix- five Top Fives. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Two-time winner (06 sweep) at Phoenix- finished 13th in April start, average running position of 10th. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner (4/09, 10/93) at Phoenix, three straight Top Fives. Y!-A3
5. Jeff Gordon… Won 4/07 race at Phoenix- finished ninth in last year’s Chase race, runner-up in April start. Y!-A4
6. Clint Bowyer… Average running position of seventh in two straight starts at Phoenix. Y!-B2
7. Kyle Busch… Won 11/05 race at Phoenix, average running position of 11th or better in seven straight starts.
8. Greg Biffle… Average running position of 13th or better in four of the last six starts at Phoenix- two Top Fives, five Top 15s.
9. Carl Edwards… Average running position of 10th in three of the last five starts at Phoenix- two Top Fives, four Top 10s.
10. Joey Logano… Finished 10th in April start at Phoenix, average running position of sixth. Y!-B3
11. Ryan Newman… Won 4/10 race at Phoenix, second Top 10 since 05. Y!-B4
12. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner (10/01, 11/00) at Phoenix, 18 Top 15s over the last 19 starts. Y!-B5
13. Kurt Busch… Won 4/05 race at Phoenix, average running position of third in three of the last four starts.
14. Tony Stewart… Won 11/99 race at Phoenix, average running position of 14th or better in eight of the last 10 starts.
15. Matt Kenseth… Won 11/02 race at Phoenix- finished sixth in April start, first Top 10 since 07. Y!-B6
16. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best fifth in April start at Phoenix, average running position of third and 104 laps led.
17. Martin Truex Jr…. Average running position of ninth or better in five of nine career starts at Phoenix. Y!-B7
18. David Reutimann… Two Top 10s last year at Phoenix, finished 20th in April start. Y!-B8
19. A.J. Allmendinger… Average running position of 13th or 14th in three of four career starts at Phoenix. Y!-C1.
20. Marcos Ambrose… Two straight 11th-place finishes at Phoenix.
21. Kasey Kahne… Three Top 15s in the last four starts at Phoenix.
22. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 20.9 in 14 career starts at Phoenix.
23. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner (11/04, 11/03) at Phoenix, finished 12th in April start.
24. Brad Keselowski… Finished 16th in April start at Phoenix, three straight Top Fives in the Nationwide Series.
25. David Ragan… Average finish of 24.9 in seven career starts at Phoenix.
26. Sam Hornish Jr…. Three straight Top 20s at Phoenix, average running position of 10th in April start. Y!-C2
27. Paul Menard… Average finish of 25.0 in seven career starts at Phoenix. Y!-C3
28. Aric Almirola… Finished 26th in only career Cup start at Phoenix (07) Finished third in last year’s Truck race. Y!-C4
29. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 26.9 in 17 career starts at Phoenix.
30. Regan Smith… Average finish of 28.0 in four career starts at Phoenix.
31. Bill Elliott… Won 11/89 race at Phoenix, first start at the site since 08.
32. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.6 in 16 career starts at Phoenix, finished 14th in April start.
33. Scott Speed… Average finish of 32.0 in four career starts at Phoenix.
34. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 25.7 in seven career starts at Phoenix.
35. Casey Mears… Average finish of 27.2 in 12 career starts at Phoenix.
36. Bobby Labonte… Finished 27th in April start at Phoenix.
37. David Gilliland… Average finish of 28.0 in eight career starts at Phoenix.
38. Tony Raines… Average finish of 29.6 in eight career starts at Phoenix.
39. Brendan Gaughan… Possible start and park. No Cup starts since 04. Average finish of 10.0 in three career Nationwide starts at Phoenix.
40. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
41. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
42. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
44. Jason Leffler… Likely start and park.
45. Terry Labonte… Likely start and park. Won 10/94 race at Phoenix.
46. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Three straight DNQs.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Paul Menard	5	15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	18	9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	21	13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Jeff Gordon Dale Earnhardt Jr	18 15	6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	1	7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	18	11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	6	20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	18	15.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	9	8
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	10.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	9	10
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	8	9.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	18.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	12	18.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Jhnson Jimmie Johnson	12 12	10.5 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	39	19.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Carl Edwards	39	15.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	25	16.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	20
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	12	11
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	12	14
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	18	11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	9	13.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	10.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	33	18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	12	21.75

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