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Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Atlanta Motor Speedway

I feel like a fool for picking Kyle Busch last week at Martinsville, when I had such obvious better choices in front of me (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin… the list goes on). I take no consolation in the fact that I called them “easy” or “cop-out” picks, because the fact is that I should have gone with one of them. I’m not making that mistake again this weekend.

Atlanta may be the best track for the 12 Chase drivers overall, because the drivers with the top eight finishing averages at Atlanta (excluding active drivers and those with under five starts) are all eligible for the championship. Only one of them, Kevin Harvick, has an average finish worse than 20.0, and he started his Atlanta career 1-for-1 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history. The bottom line is, since every Chaser is so good here, one has to examine momentum coming into the event before making any predictions. As has been most of the Chase, it’s all about who’s got the momentum.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Atlanta:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Nobody has more momentum going into the final four races of the season than Johnson, and everybody knows it. He won this race last year as part of a four-race winning streak that propelled him to his second consecutive championship. He’s also won four of the last eight races on the tour, including last week at Martinsville. He has the best average finish of active drivers at Atlanta, a 9.6. It’s getting old to write the same sorts of things about Johnson every week, so take this word of advice: Johnson has one of the best chances to win of anyone this weekend. (Duh.)

2. Greg Biffle: Da Biff had his second-best career finish at Martinsville last week, a lead-lap 12th. Given his abysmal track record there, the team’s spirits are high coming into Atlanta. He won the pole for this race last year and finished 4th here in the spring. In 2004 and 2005, when his team last performed at this level, his average finish was 7.0 in four starts. Another solid finish for Biffle seems to be in the cards, but will he continue to lose points to Johnson?

3. Jeff Burton: Usually 16.5 is a solid average finish at a track, but not when eight of your championship rivals rank ahead of you. Such is Burton’s predicament. He’s not helped by last week’s struggle, in which he wound up off the lead lap in 17th. A total of 13 top 10s and no DNFs at Atlanta since March 2003 are both good signs, but Burton also hasn’t led more than five laps in an Atlanta race since spring 1994, in his fifth career Sprint Cup start. A win is unlikely; a decent finish, however, isn’t out of the question.

4. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl would have won at Atlanta this spring if not for engine troubles. He’s only finished outside the top 10 at Atlanta twice, and although both of those were finishes of 40th or worse, Edwards is generally a pretty reliable bet here. Edwards seems poised to regain momentum after a 3rd place finish at Martinsville, and he certainly has a chance to capture win no. 7 of the season at Atlanta.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint has finished 6th in his past three starts at Atlanta, which makes him a reliable bet to finish well here again. He hasn’t finished any worse than 12th since Michigan, and although he hasn’t finished any better than 5th in that span of nine races, he’s been consistently towards the front. Don’t expect that to change for any reason.

6. Kevin Harvick: Here’s a shocker. Since his dramatic win in the spring of 2001 and a 3rd place finish that fall, Happy hasn’t finished in the top 5 at Atlanta. He didn’t even finish in the top 10 again until this spring. His average finish of 23.3 here is worst of all 12 Chase drivers. One reason for hope, however, is the fact that Harvick’s only finished outside the top 10 twice since the debacle at Indianapolis.

7. Jeff Gordon: It has been five years since Gordon’s won at Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a slouch here. Gordon’s average finish at Atlanta in his past six starts is a fantastic 6.0. Gordon’s led significant amounts of laps the past two weeks as well, and his desire to avoid his first winless season since 1993 is probably at its peak. Gordon could surprise this weekend – although, if you look at the team’s performance the past two weeks, it shouldn’t be a surprise at all.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke finished second here in the spring. Since the fall race in 2001, he’s only finished outside of the top 10 twice – a lead lap 17th in spring 2005 and a 30th in this race last year after losing oil pressure in the middle of the race. Most of Stewart’s momentum from Talladega is gone, however, after a 26th place run last week at Martinsville. Stewart should keep up his stout Atlanta record, but a win for the hometown sponsor might be a lot to ask.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug’s got a lot of momentum after having one of the strongest cars in the field at Martinsville. He has no chance at a championship, but he can certainly go out and steal some races from the contenders for the final month or so. His average finish of 8.7 in his past six starts here is certainly stout, and it would be higher if he didn’t crash late in this race last year and finish 25th. Important to note is that Earnhardt Jr. has four top 5s in those six starts, the best of which came at Atlanta in the spring. There’s no reason he can’t win this weekend.

10. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 6.2 with four top 10s in his last six starts here is one of the best in the business. His Chase has been terrible, with Martinsville last week one of the lone bright spots, but that gives the team a push to do well in these final four races. Although Kenseth’s never won at Atlanta and has only led 12 laps here in the past six years, he knows how to get to the finish without too many issues.

11. Denny Hamlin: Atlanta is one of the few tracks in the Chase where Hamlin has not consistently run well over his brief career. An 8th place finish in this race two years ago is the brightest spot on a record that includes four finishes of 19th or worse. It’s important to note that while Hamlin has only failed to complete six laps in his career at Atlanta, he’s only finished on the lead lap once. You can’t win a race if you can’t finish on the lead lap.

12. Kyle Busch: Shrub’s record at Atlanta looks like his record at a few other tracks: Save a fantastic performance this spring, in which he won after leading 173 of 325 laps, he hasn’t done much in the way of top 10 finishes. However, he did lead 77 laps in this race last year, when he finished 20th. He also has three 12th place finishes, and has only failed to complete seven laps here since becoming a full-time Cup driver.

A brief aside: I feel really bad for Busch. Kyle’s 2008 has been one of the greatest seasons in NASCAR history, and the Chase format has robbed him of a chance to win his first well-earned championship. In this age of NASCAR parity, winning 20 out of the 73 races he’s contested in the face of adversity is quite the accomplishment. One can only hope that we’ll someday see another season this dominant (from a driver other than Jimmie Johnson, anyway – this sort of year seems to come naturally to him).

So who would I pick to win this weekend (other than Jimmie Johnson)? I have to go with Jeff Gordon. He’s got the same equipment as Johnson, he’s had a similar sort of career here, and he desperately wants to avoid a goose egg in the win column for this year.

Chasers Rule at Atlanta: Someone has to Suck

The top ten drivers in NASCAR Loop Data stats for the past seven Atlanta Motor Speedway Sprint Cup races are all 2008 Chase to the Cup qualifiers.

The top five all have Driver Ratings above 100. 100 is very good.

Jimmy Johnson leads ‘em out – surprise! – with a score of 113.4. Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle take it down to 102.3. The next five, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch span 96.6 to 88.5. There are no Atlanta slouches in the whole group.

Denny Hamlin has the 15th best Driver Rating and it’s still pretty close at 83.5. Kevin Harvick though, looks like the relative red-headed step child of the bunch. Harvick’s DR is 74.5, with an Ave Finish of 22.9.

Harvick and Hamlin are the only chasers with negative Passing Differentials. Harvick has led only 11 laps and Hamlin but 19 (though Jeff Burton has the lowest total of the chasers with three.) The top five have led a total of 1387 – 60.8 percent of all laps in the last seven races.

Surprisingly, Bobby Labonte, who at one time not long ago owed Atlanta Motor Speedway, has a Dr of only 65.7 and an Ave Finish of 27.1. I used to pick Labonte every time the Cuppers went to AMS. Worked out pretty good for a number of seasons. Ryan Newman has a Series best Ave Start of 6.1 and finish of 22.7 during the Loop era. So much for qualifying. And for a driver with the reputation of being fast on fast tracks that Michael Waltrip has, Mikey looks bad at AMS – DR of 61.0, one Lap Led and Ave Finish at 18.7.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Martinsville Speedway

So thanks to some shrewd picking last week – a fleet of Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Burton – my picks from last week finished 6th, 4th, and won at Charlotte. Picking three guys just isn’t fair, especially when my “dark horse” won eight races earlier this year, my “sleeper” is 2nd in points, and my lead pick has been the same for the past couple weeks. No more. From now on, I only pick one driver a week.

We head to Martinsville Speedway to kick off the second half of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Martinsville is the stock car racing equivalent of taking the Monaco Formula 1 track’s famous hairpin 1,000 times. It’s a punishing track for both man and machine. Only the best can say they’ve conquered Martinsville – and even some of NASCAR’s all-time greatest short track drivers, such as Terry Labonte, have never won at the bullring.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Martinsville:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at Martinsville since April 14, 2002. He hasn’t finished outside the top 5 at Martinsville since April 10, 2005. He hasn’t led less than 100 laps at a Martinsville race since October 23, 2005. To top it off, his average finish here is 6.0; for drivers with 10 or more career starts here, that’s second only to Lee Petty‘s 5.5. You get the picture.

2. Jeff Burton: Burton hasn’t won here since 1997, but he’s led laps in both of the series’ last visits to Martinsville. He finished 6th and 12th here last year, and he was 3rd earlier this season.

3. Greg Biffle: True, Da Biff’s never crashed out at Martinsville, or suffered brake failure. But his only top 10 in 11 starts here was in this race last year, when he finished 7th. Biffle’s as risky a pick as it gets this week, unless he has another flash of luck.

4. Carl Edwards: Carl’s got no momentum after the past two weeks, has never led a lap at Martinsville, and has a pedestrian average finish of 19.1 here. True, he hasn’t failed to finish on the lead lap since 2005, but just completing all 500 circuits on a regular basis here isn’t enough to make you a smart pick. Edwards’ best finish at Martinsville is 9th.

5. Clint Bowyer: The good news: In five starts and 2506 possible laps here, Clint has only failed to complete four circuits. The bad: Like Edwards, he’s never led a lap, his best finish here is 9th, and that’s not enough to make him anything more than a backup pick.

6. Kevin Harvick: Anyone remember the time Happy got suspended here after a Truck Series incident? That was pretty cool.

All kidding aside, Harvick can be solid, if not spectacular, at Martinsville when he doesn’t run into issues. It’s been four years since he led here – when he led 104 laps and finished 8th – but in his last six starts here, five of them have seen the No. 29 come home 15th or better. Slightly better than Edwards and Bowyer, for sure, but his performance still leaves a little to be desired.

7. Tony Stewart: In his last six attempts at Martinsville, Stewart’s worst finish is 13th. In that same timeframe, he has four top 5s and a win, which occurred in spring 2006. Of Chase drivers, Stewart’s average finish of 11.9 in 19 career starts is fourth best. After two straight weeks of decent runs and double-digit laps led, Stewart has the momentum to capitalize this weekend.

8. Jeff Gordon: Though eclipsed by protégé Johnson, Gordon’s average finish of 7.0 in 31 starts isn’t half bad. Gordon knows how to get around the track – his worst starting spot was 25th, way back in 1993, and he has seven poles, including poles in the last two races here. He also hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since October 2002, and has led at least one lap at the track every year since 2001, inclusive. Given his below-average season this year, Gordon may be a steal for this weekend.

9. Kyle Busch: Despite a poor finish here earlier this year, Shrub’s actually been relatively decent at Martinsville throughout his career. He led laps in both races last year, finishing 4th in each event. His average finish of 16.7 is brought down by an overheating issue in 2005 and an early spin this past spring. Busch’s past record here, combined with momentum from a 4th place finish last week, hint at a solid run this weekend.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug hasn’t failed to complete a lap here since October 2004, when he crashed late in the race. He’s also led laps in each of the past three Martinsville events, leading a race-high 146 earlier this year on the way to a 6th place finish. It also helps that Hendrick Motorsports usually dominates at Martinsville. Even without momentum after a string of poor runs, Junior should be a factor to win.

11. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth rarely leads laps at Martinsville (23 total since 2004), and rarely scores the sort of top finishes one would hope for here (two top 10s since 2004), but he’s also only failed to complete 11 laps since 2002. Usually Kenseth finishes inside the top 20 here (11 out of 17 starts), but there are definitely better drivers out there.

12. Denny Hamlin: With an average finish of 9.5 in six starts, it’s obvious that Hamlin’s good at Martinsville. Only once has he finished outside the top 10. Subtract that accident-induced 37th place finish from his records, and his average finish is a solid 4.0. Given the past few weeks, Denny may be a bit of a shaky pick, but if he drives up to his track record, he could definitely surprise a few people.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Picking Johnson is too easy. Despite his recent struggles, Gordon’s also almost too certain to do well this weekend. Even suggesting Denny Hamlin feels like a cop-out.

I’m going to go with the interesting pick and say that Kyle Busch will win this weekend. Busch has reset his focus on winning as many races as possible this year over NASCAR’s big three series. Last weekend’s Nationwide Series win and 4th place in Sprint Cup show that he still has the necessary fire inside to win. If his team has found its stride again as well, they could pull off the upset this weekend.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Lowe’s Motor Speedway

Thank you very much, Carl Edwards, for “really trying to screw up everyone’s day” at Talladega last week, because you kinda screwed up mine too. My lead pick, Jimmie Johnson, wound up 9th (the worst any of my lead picks has finished in the Chase). Sleeper Kevin Harvick wound up 20th, and dark horse Greg Biffle wound up 24th, both victims of Edwards’ aggressive bump drafting. (At least I didn’t pick Jeff Gordon or Denny Hamlin. Yikes!)

Thankfully, without the high speeds, restrictor plates, and unpredictability of Talladega, Charlotte is a much easier track to pick drivers on. Charlotte is built to the same specifications as Atlanta and Texas, and the three tracks combine for seven races per year (counting the All-Star event). For that reason, Charlotte’s a lot easier to predict than Talladega, and hopefully I’ll have better luck this week.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Charlotte:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has five wins and 11 top 10s in 14 races at Charlotte. He’s got three wins and six top 10s in the last six races this year. If those two factoids aren’t enough for you, the racetrack is named after Lowe’s, Johnson’s longtime sponsor. The No. 48 team always tries a little harder to win for their sponsor at Charlotte, and with Johnson as hot as he is, this weekend should be no exception.

2. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl lost all his momentum from the past couple months with his wreck at Talladega. Fortunately, Charlotte is one of his best tracks, with an average finish of 7.6 in seven starts, six of which were top 10 finishes. There should be no reason that Edwards’ team can’t rebound this weekend, but after last weekend, he’s not the most well-liked driver in the garage area.

3. Greg Biffle: With only four top 10s in 11 starts at Lowe’s, Biffle isn’t exactly a popular pick this weekend. However, of those four top 10s, two came in 2005, when the No. 16 was the hottest team in the garage, and one came in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, where he finished 2nd. If Biffle’s team stays as hot as it has been, another great run at Charlotte may happen.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s finished in the top 10 at Charlotte in 14 out of 29 starts, with wins in 1999 and 2001. Since joining Richard Childress Racing, his average finish is a stellar 8.0 in 8 starts at Charlotte. As for momentum, Burton hasn’t finished worse than 9th in the past 5 races.

5. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only decent finish at Charlotte was his 2nd in this race last year, finishing .579 seconds behind Jeff Gordon for the win. Excluding that race, Bowyer has never finished on the lead lap at Charlotte, and only led three laps in this race in 2006. Bowyer still has momentum from finishing 5th at Talladega last weekend, and they’ll have to cash it all in to have a chance this weekend.

6. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished 2nd and 8th here in 2001, but ever since it’s been a downward spiral. His average finish of 20.7 at Charlotte is second worst of the 12 Chase drivers. He’s only led two laps here, none since 2003, and has only finished on the lead lap three times since 2001. Harvick’s anger after last week is another factor: will driving angry help or hurt him? After his altercation with Carl Edwards, it may not help.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has plenty of momentum from last week’s (unfairly awarded… sorry) win at Talladega. His two-car team has secured sponsorship for next year, so his mind is a little clearer. Now Stewart heads to Charlotte, a track at which he’s led laps at every year of his career except 2004 and 2006. He hasn’t ripped off top 5s here since the early stages of his career, but he always runs up front for at least part of the race. It’s all about what time he gets there and if he can hold on.

8. Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five wins here in 31 starts, including one in this race last year. Since 2002, his average finish is 7.4 in races which he’s completed. Granted, Gordon didn’t finish either Charlotte race in 2005 or 2006, and crashed out of last year’s Coca-Cola 600. If he doesn’t have bad luck like he did last week at Talladega, Gordon should be a contender.

9. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led at least one lap in every Charlotte race from the 2006 Coca-Cola 600, inclusive. However, he hasn’t won at the track since the 2000 Coca-Cola 600, the first win of his Cup career. Eight top 10 finishes in 18 starts, nearly a 1 to 1 ratio of good finishes to bad, compares well with Burton and Gordon. Kenseth could surprise this weekend, if the No. 17 team doesn’t let last week’s disappointment at Talladega get to them.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In 18 starts, Junebug has nine top 10s but no wins at Charlotte. He hasn’t done too well in the Chase so far, finishing 5th, 24th, 13th, and 28th in four races. On the bright side, he led 79 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this year, eventually finishing 5th. This weekend could be a shot for Junior to rebound and put himself back in the title hunt.

11. Kyle Busch: Busch won the Nationwide race this weekend, but he’s had terrible luck on the Cup side of things for a few weeks now. He also has the worst average finish of any Chase driver at Charlotte, a paltry 23.3, with 3rd-place finishes in his past two starts the only bright spots. One never knows when a driver will break out of a slump, however, and this could be the weekend for Shrub.

12. Denny Hamlin: Forget the stats for a minute. Hamlin isn’t up to 100% health after a hard hit at Talladega. To expect him to run well this weekend after sitting out the Nationwide race isn’t a smart idea. He almost skipped the Cup race, too, for the sake of his health. He’ll probably ride around this weekend, but not do much in the way of anything spectacular.

So, who would I pick to win this weekend? I hate picking Jimmie Johnson again, but the numbers don’t lie. This is the No. 48 team’s territory, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Jeff Burton, given his recent string of good luck and solid track record here, may also have a chance to win. For a dark horse, I’d suggest Kyle Busch – it’s about time he breaks out of his recent slump, and Biffle’s surprise win at Loudon suggests that nothing is impossible.

Image Credit: Icon Sports Media

Looks Like an Up Hill Week for Kevin Harvick at Lowes

This post may seem like we’re piling on Kevin Harvick when he’s down. It isn’t like the Happy One had a great day Sunday at Talladega. But we’re headed to Lowes Motor Speedway this week and this is the OnPitRow.com post that is supposed to tell you which drivers are likely to catch a Saturday night fever.  Harvick jumps out.

Harvick, and fellow Chasers Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth all wrecked out of the Talladega Wild Card 500.  That mixed up the Chase for the Sprint Cup for sure, but that’s not what this is about.

They all have a short week to get ready for the next round in their own backyards, Charlotte.  Home cookin’ may help, but it hasn’t done much for Harvick so far.  Happy has the worst Loop Stat Driver Rating of all the 2008 Chase contenders for Lowes – 66.4.  And it’s not a Chevy thing.  Jimmy Johnson is tops with 116.5.  Harvick hasn’t led a lap in the last seven races at Lowes. His average finish in those seven is 23.1.

And it isn’t just the North Carolina speedway.  Harvick hasn’t been good on intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, covering 75 possible starts on intermediates, Kevin has led the fewer laps than all but one driver to start all 75 – 159.  Johnson has led 2735.  Eight of the top 11 lap leaders on the cookie-cutters are ’08 Chasers.  Number 11 is Junior with 908.  And we used to talk about Earnhardt Jr being weak on the mile-and-a-halfers.

Jeff Burton is just one spot better than Harvick in the laps led department. But Burton has two wins and 31 top tens on intermediates.  Harvick is winless.   The only 75 race starter with fewer lead laps than Harvick is Bobby Labonte.  But even Labonte’s Driver Rating is 81.2.

It just doesn’t look like Harvick will make a big move in the Chase at Lowes.  Labonte, Michael Waltrip and Robby Gordon aren’t very good bets either, but you likely already thought that.  I know I did.  But Kevin Harvick’s record on the intermediates surprised me.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Talladega Superspeedway

So last week wasn’t quite a bust for me, with my best bets – sure thing Greg Biffle, dark horse Jeff Gordon, and sleeper Clint Bowyer – finishing 3rd, 4th, and 12th, respectively. My lead picks – Tony Stewart at New Hampshire, and Biffle at both Dover and Kansas – have finished 8th, 1st, and respectively, scoring 502 points between them. In other words, if I was in the Chase, I’d be fourth right now, 73 points behind Jimmie Johnson in first.

Talladega, however, offers the biggest challenge for any race forecaster in the entire Chase. A driver can go from 3rd to 30th in half a lap, or the exact opposite. Everyone knows about the Big One, a 20-plus car wreck that more often than not eliminates one of the sport’s top drivers from contention, especially late in the race. In other words, this weekend is a crapshoot. Before picking anybody to win, have a look at the speed charts from every practice, go with a gut feeling, and wear your lucky underwear – you’ll need it. Just don’t drop a deuce and have to wash all the luck out of it.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Talladega:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson’s got momentum on his side, the top cars in the garage, an average start of 8.2 (so you know he’s fast here), and only one start in which he hasn’t led a lap, when his engine blew up in fall 2002. He’s almost a lock – as much as any driver can be at Talladega. Any questions?

2. Carl Edwards: Come Chase time, Edwards does well at Talladega: the past three years, he’s finished 5th, 9th, and 14th in this race (although that 9th came in 2006, when he missed the 10-man cutoff). Despite two engine failures, Edwards has never retired from a race due to an accident. Given his recent momentum, with seven finishes of 3rd or better from Indianapolis to now, don’t expect Cousin Carl to slow down any on Sunday.

3. Greg Biffle: Biff’s never finished better than 13th at Talladega in 2005, even when he hasn‘t gotten caught up in wrecks. He’s led 19 laps at the track in his Cup career. And somehow he’s excited for this race. Biffle’s stated that he’s going to hang around Johnson and Edwards all race to minimize any potential losses in the standings, but expect him to try to break away and lead a few laps if it’ll help him in the points.

4. Jeff Burton: In 29 career starts at Talladega, Burton’s only crashed out twice – and one of those times was his track debut in 1994. His 10 top 10s at the track for his career rank tied for third of all Chase drivers, but he only has two top 5s at the track, in 2001 and 2006. Burton’s almost certain not to wreck, however, so he’s a reliable if not spectacular choice.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy’s one of the few top-caliber drivers who can say he’s never had a day completely ruined by getting caught up in the Big One. As such, he has an average finish of 14.3 at Talladega in 15 starts. The only Chaser with more than five seasons’ experience to finish every race he’s started at the track, Harvick should bring the car home in one piece on Sunday, with a top 10 finish very plausible (7 in his career).

6. Jeff Gordon: Jeff won both races here last season. He’s in dire need of a win this year, but after only finishing 19th at ‘Dega in the series’ spring visit, he‘s not a shoo-in. In 31 starts, however, Gordon’s finished in the top 10 16 times (with six wins) and crashed out only three times. He’s due, and this is a track that Gordon’s found more success on than a lot of drivers, so it’s possible that Gordon can find victory lane this weekend.

7. Clint Bowyer: When Clint completes every lap at Talladega (his last 2 starts at the track, in last year’s Chase and earlier this year), his average finish is 10.0. When he doesn’t (his first 3 starts at the track), his average finish is 36.7. If he finishes the race, he’ll do just fine, but not much more than that.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: From 2001 to 2004, Junebug’s worst finish at Talladega was 8th. Twice he finished 2nd. The other five times, he won. In the spring, he led 46 laps and finished 10th. Junior’s not a sure thing to win this weekend, though, as he hasn’t won here since 2004 and the team is using a backup car due to a nightmare practice. On the other hand, it should be noted that, as DEI were the kings of the restrictor plate in the early 2000s, so too Hendrick has been in the latter half of this decade.

9. Matt Kenseth: When Matt’s on at Talladega, he’s on (67 laps led with an average finish of 6.0 from 2005 to 2006). When he catches a bad break, however, he’s gone (5 finishes outside of the top 20, including his last two starts). An interesting note, however: Each time Matt’s finished inside the top 10 at Kansas, he’s also led laps and finished decently at Talladega. Matt finished 5th last weekend.

10. Denny Hamlin: Denny’s finished in the top 5 twice at Talladega, a 4th in fall 2007 and a 3rd earlier this year. In the three races before that, though, he finished 22nd, 21st, and 21st. Hamlin’s capable of running up front at Talladega, though, after leading at least one lap in all five of his starts. If Denny’s timing is on, we could see the No. 11 surprise a lot of folks by winding up in Victory Lane.

11. Tony Stewart: Smoke’s 13.9 average finish here is tops of all Chase contenders. He also led 61 laps here in the spring before an accident relegated him to 38th place. Tony lost a lot of momentum after finishing 40th at Kansas, but last year he rebounded from another poor Kansas run to finish 8th at ‘Dega. Keep in mind, Stewart’s only led 36 laps in the past 12 races, and didn’t have too much momentum to begin with. Don’t expect a surprise victory, but Stewart should be there in the end.

12. Kyle Busch: With career finishes of 41st, 33rd, 32nd, 11th, 37th, 36th, and 1st, it’s not hard to pick out the outlier in Busch’s ‘Dega stats. Forget the massive streak of bad luck the past few weeks; Busch is too accident prone here in the first place. Of course, I could be wrong, and he could break out this weekend and win (his only win here was this year), but all the signs point otherwise. Sorry, Kyle.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Johnson, plain and simple. You can’t argue with momentum, horsepower, and flat-out talent. In the midst of a nine-race top 10 streak, Harvick also has the potential to put Richard Childress Racing in victory lane. As for a dark horse, look no further than the momentum-charged Biffle, who sounds legitimately excited for this race, despite his track record. Remember, he didn’t have too much going for him at Loudon, either.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Welcome To The Talladega Jungle

Predicting Talladega is like buying a lottery ticket. Sometimes you win a buck, sometimes you win a little more – but most often you end up wasting money. Case in point the last 3 races at the track in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Back in 2005 Dale Jarrett came out of nowhere to steal the race, and Brian Vickers’ last lap “pass” that sent Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. spinning ruined a lot of days. Then we have the battle last season, in which Jeff Gordon made one of the gutsiest passes I’ve seen at a plate race to snag the win from Johnson with Tony Stewart right on his tail.

There is always a sort of feeling heading into the October Talladega race that you don’t feel in the spring. I’ve felt it for years, and the additions of the Chase have only heightened the anticipation, majesty, and… fear.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Brian Vickers
2005 – Dale Jarrett
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 24th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

As has been the trend in the Chase, Johnson’s 2006 run has been the aberration in how to win the championship. In this case as you can see, throw out that year and the champ will finish in the top 5 at Talladega. This year, that seems to show that some combination of Johnson, Carl Edwards, or Greg Biffle battling for the win. Some smart money would also be on Gordon, Dale Jr., or Kevin Harvick, as the Chevy track record is particularly strong.

Talladega is good for a few surprises in the top 10. In recent years, drivers such as Tony Raines, Jeff Green, and Brendan Gaughan all recorded surprisingly good finishes here. One driver to look for is Mike Wallace in a fourth RCR car. Wallace is widely considered one of the best plate racers, and this car could be really good, or really bad. That’s half the fun of sleepers! For those that have taken a chance on my heavy sleepers, first of all, I apologize. This week I’m going to step out on that limb with David Gilliland. He has run well at plate races, and good be racing for a job next year, given that Paul Menard is headed to the Yates team.

In case you didn’t guess by the title of the column, the Talladega theme song is “Welcome To The Jungle” by Guns N’ Roses. Reportedly the long-awaited album Chinese Democracy will be out November 25. Maybe we can get that free Dr Pepper after all.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Kansas Speedway

Fool me once, Greg Biffle, shame on you – but you’re not fooling me two weeks in a row. Neither are you, Matt Kenseth, my dark horse pick of last week, or Carl Edwards, who I called a “no-brainer,” or Jeff Gordon, who was “reasonably near the front” all day, just like I said. In other words, I had a heck of a week last week at Dover, when most of my picks finished right around where I expected them to.

Kansas, however, is a whole different animal. The Car of Today has never raced at the relatively new track, and as such, it’s a little more difficult to predict who’s going to finish where based on past races alone. A good barometer for where Chase drivers are going to finish might be the July race at Chicagoland Speedway, a track very similar in design to Kansas.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Kansas:

1. Carl Edwards: Carl didn’t finish too well at Chicagoland, ending up 32nd after falling a lap down, although he did lead with as little as 60 laps to go. He finished 3rd here in 2005 and 6th in 2006, although he crashed out with Tony Stewart last year and wound up 37th. Keep in mind that from the first race at Richmond until now, a span of 19 races, Carl has only finished outside of the top ten three times. Based on momentum alone, it’s hard to go wrong with picking Edwards this weekend.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie’s average starting position at Kansas is a fantastic 5.5, but his average finish is 12.0, and he hasn’t ever really contended for the win here except in 2006, when Stewart passed him with five laps to go. Johnson has been pretty hot since finishing 2nd at Chicagoland, however, so he should at least be good for a top 10 finish.

3. Greg Biffle: In the last 6 races at Kansas, Da Biff has the most points of anyone, with 849. He won here last year, and he’s won the last two races this year. He also finished 4th at Chicagoland this year. Nobody in the garage has more momentum coming into this weekend, and a career average finish of 11.0 (which bumps up to 6.0 if you only count his starts in Roush Fenway vehicles) says that Biffle will contend for three wins in a row on Sunday.

4. Jeff Burton: Aside from a 5th here in 2006, there hasn’t really been much for Burton to smile about at Kansas. It’s not exactly easy to predict where Burton will finish this week either, because his finishes have been all over the place since joining RCR: 15th in 2004, 28th in 2005, the aforementioned 5th in 2006, and 36th last year. Burton also only finished 19th at Chicagoland, despite starting the race 3rd. Be wary of the AT&T team this weekend, if only because Burton could either be a huge hit or huge miss this weekend.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy is 5th all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 827. He’s only failed to compete 109 laps at the track, and 107 were because his car overheated in 2004. In other words, Harvick is usually consistently towards the front at Kansas – although he’s never led more than 48 laps in a race, and his highest finish is 6th, he has an average finish of 13.0 when his car completes the race. Harvick also finished 3rd at Chicagoland this year. If you can pick up Harvick for insurance purposes, he shouldn’t let you down.

6. Clint Bowyer: Home track advantage? Clint’s finished 9th and 2nd in two starts at his home track, putting him third overall in that two-race span. In the Nationwide Series the past two years, he finished 5th in 2006 and 4th last year. He’s generally good at Chicagoland too, with an average finish of 13.7. One more kicker: Clint’s only failed to complete two laps from the first Michigan race up to now. Bowyer might be one of the smartest picks in the field for Sunday.

7. Tony Stewart: Stewart’s second all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 966 in 7 starts. Even though he wrecked out here last year with Edwards, but it’s his only finish at the track worse than 14th. His average finish is an excellent 11.1 with one win, two years ago. Stewart was also 5th at Chicagoland earlier this year. Expect Stewart to be up towards the front, if not contending for another victory, come Sunday.

8. Jeff Gordon: The only driver to outrank Stewart here at Kansas is Gordon, who’s scored 18 more points than Stewart in the same amount of starts. Keep in mind, that translates to an average finish of 10.6 (or, if you discount a failed fuel pump in 2006, an excellent 5.8) with two wins. He finished 11th in Chicagoland this year, leading 6 laps towards the beginning of the event. Gordon’s a great pick if you want a potential steal this weekend.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Seventh-best all time at Kansas with 810 points, Junebug’s only failed to complete two laps at Kansas since 2002. Although his best finish is 6th in 2002, his average finish is a respectable 17.1. Junior finished 16th at Chicagoland after starting 2nd, remaining on the lead lap all race. All signs point to a top-15 finish for Junior, if not a top-10, but don’t bet on a win.

10. Matt Kenseth: An average finish of 22.1 isn’t going to do much for you this weekend. Then again, when Kenseth’s on a hot streak coming into Kansas, he can pull off some decent finishes: in 2002, he finished 7th for his fourth straight top-10, and in 2005 he finished 5th, capping an eight race stretch in which his average finish was 7.3. Kenseth’s got some momentum from Dover and could surprise this weekend.

11. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin’s never finished on the lead lap at Kansas, despite only failing to complete four laps in three Cup starts at the track. He won’t wreck out, sure, but a best finish of 18th isn’t exactly top-tier material. Even in the Nationwide Series, his average finish is only 17.0 after three starts with no top-5 finishes. Hamlin also only finished 40th at Chicagoland this year, four laps down. Avoid him if you can.

12. Kyle Busch: Damaged goods – do not touch. Everyone knows about Shrub’s meltdown the past two races, finishing 34th at Loudon and 43rd at Dover. His average finish of 26.5 at Kansas, partially buoyed by wrecks in 2004 and 2007, doesn’t help matters. Busch may have won the Nationwide Series race here last year, but as we saw last week at Dover, Nationwide and Sprint Cup success do not go hand in hand. Even though Busch won at Chicagoland this year, that was during a period where the M&M’s team could do no wrong, winning six times in an 11-race stretch. Don’t even think about him.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Good things come in threes – each owner in the Chase has three cars in it, Johnson’s attempting to win his third championship, and I think Da Biff can pull off his third consecutive win this weekend. Clint Bowyer, given that Kansas is his home track, could be another solid pick to run up front. For a dark horse, if you can ever call him that, consider Jeff Gordon, the best driver of all-time at this track. Gordon’s another driver due for a win this season, and Kansas may be his best opportunity yet.

Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Dover International Speedway

Okay, so last week I was completely wrong about Greg Biffle. I summed up his chances at Loudon with one word: “Yikes.” I was about right with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., the rest of the top 5, but I completely blew it on Biffle. Sorry, folks. I guess four out of five ain’t bad, though, right?

Staying on the lead lap is more important at Dover than almost anywhere else: in the three Car of Today races at the track, the last car on the lead lap averages a finish of 8.3. In this race last year, and also this spring, only six cars stayed on the lead lap. Simply put, if you can’t stay on the lead lap, you can’t win.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Dover:

1. Carl Edwards: Of all Chase drivers at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is the best, at 8.2. He leads all drivers in the COT era at the track with 510 points. He hasn’t finished out of the top 15 since Chicagoland at mid-July, and his worst finish at the track in his career is 18th in 2004, his sixth career Sprint Cup start. This one should be a no-brainer.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Even if he hasn’t won at the track since 2005, there’s still something to be said for sweeping the events at a track in your rookie season. That’s exactly what Johnson did at Dover in 2002. Even if his momentum may be slightly decreased after losing at Loudon in the final laps, Johnson has eight top 10s at Dover, with an average finish of 12th in the COT. A top 10 finish is highly plausible.

3. Greg Biffle: When your average finish at a track is 5.4 since 2005, and 3.7 in the COT era, you’re a safe pick. When you’re coming off of a win in the first race of the Chase, you’re a safe pick. When you’re second in points all-time at a track in the COT era, only ten points behind the leader, you’re a safe pick. And most importantly of all, when the writer feels stupid about missing on you, the race winner, completely last week, you’re a mandatory pick. Da Biff will step up again at Dover.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished third in this race last year, and won here in 2001 (remember “Wilson”?), but there hasn’t been too much to speak of since then. Junior has led two laps at Dover since 2004. Granted, his 35th place run earlier this year was a result of an early accident, and some say that Junior could outrun the leaders even with the damage on his car. But an average finish of 18.2 in the three years prior does not bode well. Expect a decent run, but don’t bank on a top finish.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has only failed to complete three laps at Dover since 2005. His average finish in that time is an exceptional 7.9. Although two of his lapped finishes came in the past two races at the track, he came in 7th and 8th, respectively, in those two events. Burton will be solid, if not spectacular, come Sunday.

6. Denny Hamlin: Denny is a bit of an unknown at Dover. In his first three races at the track, his average finish was a solid 8.0. But in his past two races, he’s fallen victim to accidents and has an average finish of 40.5. Take note of the fact that Hamlin has only led 61 laps in a Sprint Cup car at Dover, but they all came in the first of those two wrecks. Also of note, Hamlin has only completed 16 race laps at Dover in a Toyota. High risk can equal high reward, however – choose wisely.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has wrecked in three of his last four Dover starts. From his rookie season until 2004, he was a beast at Dover, with a worst finish of 11th in 12 starts, but since then it’s been all downhill. Stewart’s due for a win, but he hasn’t won at Dover since he swept the track in 2000. Seeing Stewart’s old self at Dover is a distinct possibility, but one never knows how long a streak of bad luck at any one track can last; remember how long it took Dale Earnhardt to win a Daytona 500.

8. Kyle Busch: Shrub is the most intriguing pick of them all. Having lost his points lead (and seven positions in the standings) in a 300-point swing over the past week, Busch has got to be angry. A disastrous run at New Hampshire last week could only have added to that rage. Then again, remember that Rowdy won at Dover in the spring, has an average finish of 10.3 (that would be a lot higher if not for an engine failure in 2006), and is hungry again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’ll win this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer: Clint has been okay at Dover, but he’s never been anything to write home about. He’s only led two laps at the track, his best finish is eighth (twice), and his average finish is a pedestrian 16.2. Don’t expect him to finish much higher than that, as he hasn’t finished in the top 5 since Infineon.

10. Kevin Harvick: Save a 4th place finish in 2003 that saw him lead 133 laps, Kevin has never run consistently well at Dover. In 15 career starts at the track, he’s only finished on the lead lap four times, and his listed average finish of 19.3 is slightly more forgiving than the track has been to him lately. If Happy can really elevate his driving to his 2001 levels at the track (finishes of 8th and 6th), he might have a shot. The team has been on a hot streak lately, with an average finish of 9.2 in the last nine races (which rises to 5.8 if you don’t count the debacle that was Indianapolis), so it’s very possible.

11. Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon is in 11th place in points? Really? His average finish of 8.3 at Dover in the COT era suggests that he can improve on that this weekend, but keep in mind that his last win here was in June of 2001. He’s only failed to complete one lap in the past five races, though, so expect him to at least be reasonably near the front all day. Keep in mind that Gordon won the pole today.

12. Matt Kenseth: Matt has suffered four DNFs at Dover since 2004, three from accidents and one from engine failure. However, when Matt’s luck holds up at Dover, he certainly performs: his average finish is 6.1 in the last seven races he’s finished. He also had a legitimate shot at winning this race last year, leading 192 laps until his engine grenaded with 26 to go. This could be the race to turn this team’s recent luck around: Matt’s finished 39th and 40th in the past two weeks and could use a pick-me-up.

So who would I pick to win this week at Dover? Given his momentum, his past record at the track, and having completed every lap of every race since Chicagoland, Biffle is a safe pick. Or is that my pride talking, after completely blowing it on him last week? Kyle Busch would be a lot safer of a pick if not for his meltdown at New Hampshire – give him a week or two to see if he rebounds or regresses. For a dark horse, think about Kenseth, whose luck hasn’t been the best at Dover or in recent weeks, but can contend for wins at the track when everything goes right.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Is Tony Stewart Afraid of Monsters?

Do you suppose that Michael Waltrip and Bobby Labonte look nervously beneath their haulers when in Delaware, thinking they heard something go bump in the night?

If they do, you couldn’t blame them.  Dover Downs might be haunted by the ghost of someone the’ve wronged, given the performance of those guys on the Monster Mile these last three years.

No driver who has competed in the last seven Dover races has lower overall NASCAR Loop Data stats than Waltrip.  Only Waltrip, Labonte, Robby Gordon and Joe Nemechek show worse than Stewart. 

The Home Depot No. 20fought back to finish eigth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  This time, Stewart apologized to his team for problems ON PiT ROW …

“Sorry, guys,” he radioed his team

Last week it was a mistake in the pits and this week it was a mistake on the driver’s part,” Stewart said. “We had some bad luck and then I made our problem worse with the speeding penalty.”

But this year, it’s always something – not just with the No. 20 but withMatt Kenseth’s No. 17 as well.  Kenseth got tangled with Chad McCumbee on lap 230 and finished 40th.

“If we would have been running where Greg (Biffle) and Carl (Edwards) were running, we wouldn’t have got wrecked to start with, so I always feel it’s partially your fault,” Kenseth said. “Even though we got caught up in somebody else’s mess, if we would have been running better, we would have been ahead of their mess.”

Kenseth has the second best Loop Driver Rating for Dover, just south of Loudon winner, Greg Biffles’s.  But that can’t cover the team’s current struggles and the driver’s apparent lack of team confidence.

I don’t know if Stewart or Waltrip are really looking under the proverbial bed for Dover track gremlins, but Dale Eanhardt Jr was acting like an X-Files devotee according to Rick Hendrick…

Earnhardt said he was tired of his car’s handling and then suggested someone was tampering with his tires and said the team needed to beef up security. That’s when Hendrick got on the radio to calm him down and suggested Junior “take a deep breath.”

It isn’t a good sign though, that Hendrick had to get on the horn to settle Junior down.  That should be Tony Eury Jr’s responsibility.

“We’ve got to be right there in striking distance,” Hendrick said. “He’s got so much talent and they’ve been doing things the way they do them for a long, long time. I’m just trying to give them some old man experience. A little more focus, think about what the car’s doing, give Tony the feedback and we’ll make the right adjustments.”

Kevin Harvick’s  Ave Finish in the Dover Loop era is only 22.4 and he has led exactly zero laps.  That’s 491 less than Kenseth, who tops the stat.  The Monster hasn’t been very good to Kasey Kahne either with an Ave Finish of 24.3 and a Driver Rating of 69.8.

Thanks to FoxSports.com for the quotes.  And Icon Sports Media for the photo.

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