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Wrapped up, but not wiped out

OK, so we’re one episode away from conclusion of the 2008 Jimmie Johnson show. All the Hendrick gear in my possession aside, even I’m bored with this. Nothing against JJ, Chad or crew, but even my 16 year old Baby Ruth T-shirt is fresher than this act. And it doesn’t even fit any more. While their accomplishments the past three seasons are nothing short of miraculous, and like it or not deserve all the press and praise, there’s one thing that comes to mind that a wise old man once told me.

“Luke, you just can’t eat a steak every night for life and not expect it to get old and lose it’s luster. Sometimes you just need a good chicken dinner to liven it up.”

While a bit off-beat, it rings true for many situations. Including this one. As remarkable of an accomplishment as this will be, barring something to knock Jimmie to a 37th or worse finish, fans are looking to the menu for some chicken.

They have shown it with empty seats at places which tend to sell out, or close to it. They have shown it through television ratings, as well as related purchases. While the current economic times play a part, those didn’t really enter the picture until mid to late summer where it would have a huge impact.

Many curse the Chase, although Johnson would still be leading by 56 points. That aside, he would only be heading to Championship #1, not #3.

I read an interesting article yesterday, with some interesting concepts on how bad it is and how it could be fixed. Problem being: “One must recognize, and accept, that there is a problem before work can begin to fix it.” — Luke

A few decent ideas have been thrown around, for sure.

So while we witnessed the last to final episode of the 2008 season of the Jimmie and Chad show, it wasn’t all about the Chasers.

Jamie McMurray continued his romp and stomp with another Top-5 and 3rd place finish. Kurt Busch, hanging it all out, finished second, with David Ragan closing out the Top-10. 30% of your Top-10 were not in the Chase. Surprise, surprise.

With fond memories (thank you Truck Series) from Phoenix in our rear view mirrors, we’re pulling into Homestead with one thing on everyone’s mind. Vacation. Yes, you read that right. Time off. No tracks, no press, no worries. At least for a few days anyway, as work for 2009 has already begun. Think I’m kidding? Kurt Busch and company tested this past Tuesday at the new half-mile “Little Rock”, at Rockingham, getting ready for 2009. No joke.

Homestead is, well, it’s a track. Much like many others composing the meat of the current schedule. It’s a 1.5 mile “cookie-cutter”, and it’s owned by ISC. There you have it. In an effort to improve racing they put in graduated banking, seeing action for the first time in 2003. Las Vegas did the same thing just 2 years ago, in fact. While the show improved, it’s about like watching Johnson hoist the Cup this Sunday.

The cookie track that tried, tried, and tried again has been the “House of Roush” for years. In fact, Greg Biffle is 3 for 4 in the past 4 years here, only losing out to Matt Kenseth in the 2007 showdown when he beat Kurt Busch to the line by .852 seconds. Biffle wound up 13th.

If one had to put some non-Chasers in the Top-10, you can’t help but pick Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. With momentum and history coming into play, they’re odds on favorites to crack the Top-10.

Kurt Busch again? I’m not so sure. Top-20, maybe, but he’s pulling an average just inside the Top-30 for tracks of this nature this year. Needless to say, when they’re on, they’re on. When they’re off, they’re really off. There hasn’t really been an in between at this type of track for the #2 Dodge.

Looking for that ever elusive third possibility, I’ll throw you two and you can take your pick. It’s not out of the question that it could be Kasey Kahne or Travis Kvapil. Yes, I said Travis Kvapil.

Come back next week for the final wrap up on what was the non-Chase 2008.

Phoenix International Raceway: Kasey Kahne Kant

Most weeks, even though 2008 has not been a banner year for Kasey Kahne, his stats make him look like - at least - a dark-horse contender to win. With mile-and-a-half tracks comprising a majority of the Chase races, and Kahne being a relative stud on the intermediates (he swept the two Cup races at Lowes in May) Kasey has been a legit consideration most of the last eight weeks. But not this time.

PIR has not been good to Kahne. Eight races there with three top tens and three finishes of 31st or worse. Zero laps led, a 20th best Loop Driver Rating of 70.9 - compared to stat topper Jimmy Johnson at 118.0 - and an Ave Finish in the last seven races of 23.4. Kahne has run only 39.1 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

There is no other driver whom I look upon as a consistent contender, that looks as unlikely to win this race, this week. The Dodge teams don’t strike fear into anyone. Budweiser, I would think, must question their selection of the Gillette-Everham/Kasey Kahne choice as the replacement - as if - for Dale Earnhardt Jr and DEI/Chevy. 

The results this weekend from the Desert probably won’t help.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Lowe’s Not a Fan of the Blue Oval

This weekend’s Bank of America 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway will be the one-hundredth Cup race held since its inception in June of 1960.

In the first four decades of races at Charlotte, Fords had been a consistant presence.  Twenty-five wins in those first forty years leading to the new millenium ranked the brand among the leaders in manufacturer wins.  Only Chevrolet had more wins in those early years; bringing home the checkers twenty-seven times.

In recent years however it has been a much different story for the boys from Dearborn.  Fords have seen  victory lane only twice in the 21st century.  Matt Kenseth in 2001 and Mark Martin in 2002 brought their Roush Fords home first in that years Coca-Cola 600.  No Ford has come home victorious this century in the Fall race.

Contrast that to the eight wins in seven and a half years for Chevrolet and you can see a definite trend emerging.  Much on the strength of the Hendrick Motorsports teams, the Bowtie Brigade’s owns the mile and a half at Lowe’s.  Five of those wins and four in a row starting in 2004 come at the hands of current points leader Jimmy Johnson.  Johnson has pretty much owned all the success at Lowes since he has entered the sport.

I will go way out on a limb and look for JJ to put up another good run at Lowes Motor Speedway in his Chevrolet.

The only possible chink in the armour could come from the Dodge of Kasey Kahne.  Kahne has won three of the last five races at NASCAR’s home track and all but one of Dodge’s victories in recent times.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Can Kasey Kahne Upset the Chasers?

Jimmy Johnson has a grip on Lowes Motor Speedway and NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, Johnson has won 14 of the 75 I-track races, finished in the top five 37 times and been top ten 51 times.  He’s won five of his 14 starts at Lowe’s - leading all active drivers - and has eight top fives with eleven top tens. And Jimmy has the top Loop Data Driver Rating for the track as well - 116.5. That’s good. Real good.

But Johnson hasn’t won them all.  In fact Kasey Kahne is going for the three race 2008 sweep at Lowes. Kahne won the non-points all-star race and the Coca Cola 600 back in May. He holds the third best Loop DR - 98.4 - and is a seven time winner on intermediates the last five years.  Kasey’s out of the Chase and non-Chasers don’t win many Chase races.  But Kahne has led more laps - 404 which is over 15 percent of the last seven races at the track - he has the second most Fastest Laps Run and Green Flag Passes.  Kasey could pull the upset.

Roush-Fenway May Have a Say-So Too

If Carl Edwards wins it could hardly be called an upset.  Carl is one of the Chasers who still has a chance to haul Johnson in.  Edwards actually has the best Ave Finish in Lowes last seven races - 7.6 - and is the leader in Green Flag Passes.  Carl’s another seven time I-track winner the last five years and has 31 top fives and 46 top tens on intermediates.

Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle has a great record on I-tracks with 12 wins and 28 top fives. He has also won two of the four 2008 Chase races.  Biffle’s Charlotte DR is eighth best at 87.0 with no stat stomping scores in individual categories.

Is the Shrub Back?

Watch Kyle Busch this week. The Shrub may be ready to check back in to the 2008 season after some uncharacteristically poor performances lately. Rowdy owns the second best Driver Rating at 98.7 and five I-track wins overall.  

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a top five Loop DR - fifth best 89.7 - but only three career I-track wins. Maybe some of Johnson’s Lowes success will rub off on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.  Junior’s stats don’t jump out at you.

Talladega winner, Tony Stewart has gone on late season win streaks before. But he hasn’t won much on intermediate tracks.  His DR at Lowes is only 14th best - 80.0. I would more expect a let down after the big Talladega win than a streak.

I’m picking Jimmy Johnson. He has that look again and I think the 48 team will be relentless as they push for their third straight Cup.  The darkhorse pick this week is Kahne.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

I’d Rather Drive a Chevy at Lowes Motor Speedway

Week five of the Chase has taken place at Lowes Motor Speedway every year to mark the halfway point. The race has seen a Chaser win each time, and 3 of the 4 races have been won by Jimmie Johnson (twice) and Jeff Gordon. Breaking the Chevy streak was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Chevys have taken a majority of top 10 spots, and it’s no wonder because the dominant Chevy teams – Hendrick and Childress – have been represented well. On the Hendrick side, obviously Gordon, Johnson, and previous driver Kyle Busch have top finishes, but Childress drivers Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer haven’t been too shabby either. The wild card could be the Roush Fenway Fords, however. Their last big year was 2005, and they placed 3 cars in the top 5 in this race.

As far as the championship is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the track record, Johnson’s won this race in the years he failed to win the championship. He hasn’t won this race in 2 years, but won the championship in both. Go figure. I remember back in 2004 and Kurt Busch was involved in an early incident but came back for a top 5. The overarching theme of this race is that the title weighs heavily on the minds of the contenders.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Kasey Kahne
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson - 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson - 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart - 25th
2004 – Kurt Busch - 4th

Fantasy options – Obviously, the man to beat at this track is Johnson. 2 wins and a runner-up finish in the Chase, not to mention his record at the track in general. Another driver to watch out for is Jeff Burton. I’m thinking about starting Burton this week, because he seems to have the speed again in his cars to be a contender. Thirdly, Carl Edwards has yet to experience the same success here as he has in Atlanta and Texas. Could it finally come this year? I’m hoping, but I’m not certain.

Sleepers here are always tricky. Does Kahne count as a sleeper? He had one good month here in an otherwise forgettable 2008 season, and has won this race before. Brian Vickers could finally get it done at this race. He runs extremely well at LMS. Scott Speed, Brad Keselowski, and Bryan Clauson are all expected to make their debuts this week. Count on one of them, most likely Speed or Keselowski, to have a stronger run than expected.

Finally, the song for this week’s race comes courtesy of a personal favorite on my playlist right now, “Coming Home” by Alter Bridge. Check it out, I’m out until next week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

The Chase Returns Home to Lowe’s Motor Speedway

Lowe’s Motor Speedway was the first of NASCAR’s venues to sell naming rights and change its name from Charlotte Motor Speedway.

The one and half mile long quad-oval track seats 167,000 people, with room for 50,000 more race fans in the infield.  Completed in 1959, it was the first speedway to host nighttime superspeedway racing beginning in 1992, and to offer year-round residences with 52 condominiums available over turn one.  Owned by Speedway Motorsports; which has its corporate headquarters on the same property, the speedway is considered to be the home track for the far majority of NASCAR teams who are based within fifty  miles.

Along with the main oval, the speedway also has a 2.25 mile road course in the infield, a 0 .6 mile kart track in the infield, a quarter-mile oval using part of the front stretch and pit road, and an 0.2 mile oval outside turn three. Also, across the street from the speedway, is a 0.4 mile dirt track that opened in May 2000.

Amazingly most of the records held at Lowe’s are held by many of the past heros of the sport.  Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip shore the lead with six wins each.  Allison also shares the most top fives with Richard Petty; while The King also has the most top tens, with thirty-one and most starts with sixty-four.  Allison has led the most laps, while David Pearson holds the record for most poles with fourteen.

In 2005, the surface of the circuit had started to wear from its last paving in mid-1994, resulting in the track’s treatment in a diamond-grinding process to smooth out bumps. This process of levigation, caused major tire problems during both Sprint Cup Series events with a record 22 cautions at the Coca-Cola 600. It was the first Sprint Cup Series race to go more than five hours in 25 years. Speed increases, as a result of the levigation caused the tire problems that resulted in the speedway being repaved in 2006.

In the past seventeen races dating back through 2000, Jimmy Johnson is the biggest winner among Chase drivers with five.  The only other multiple winner over that time period is non-chaser, Kasey Kahne.  The remaining wins have been spread among nine different drivers including Chase participants Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth,  Jeff Burton and Tony Stewart.

This could be the race where non-chase drivers have the best chance at a win.  Kasey Kahne especially has proven he can win on the prototype for the cookie cutter tracks.  Kahne proved his mettle as recently as the All-Star event this year.  Once again though Jimmy Johnson would be the best bet of the Chase contenders to bring home a win.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Gentlemen, Roll Your Dice

Right. So Charlie says to Steve about 5 weeks ago, “We need a sucker to write up all the non-Chaser options for the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.” So Steve says, “Well, I owe Luke one, so let’s talk him into it. He’ll write anything, you know.”

So here we are. Suckered, er, convinced, into covering the 31 other possibilities for cracking the Top-10, and knocking Chasers into the lower points-per-position bracket.

Before we dig into what went down at Kansas, in terms of the Top-10 party, how about that finish? Sure, it wasn’t so hot until the last 50 or so laps, but from there on it was hammer down aggressiveness. All completed by a “Cole Trickle” style move for the win. Of course, that’s not the only time Cousin Carl has showed us an impression of Cole Trickle either. Anyone want to recall Michigan, and a little bit of screaming out of the pits?

On to the non-Chasers from Kansas.

Luke’s score from Kansas: 1 for 5. Let’s recap.

• Brian Vickers: 15th
• Mark Martin: 18th
• Beak: 19th
• Ryan Newman: 16th
• Elliott Sadler: 10th

At least we kept it in the top 20 this week.

It wasn’t all roses in the Top-10 however. It was only a 70% take for the Chasers.

Coming in with an 8th place showing was David Ragan, followed by A.J. Allmendinger in 9th, and the aforementioned Elliott Sadler closing out the Top-10.

If only Kasey Kahne had better studied Elliot’s setup, he wouldn’t have been 11 spots behind. Is it just me, or has the 9 team has been a bit behind the 8-ball since NASCAR reeled in the “crab walking” with the rear ends of the car? Maybe it’s just coincidence, but then again, maybe not.

So now we arrive at Talladega. Talk about a crapshoot. As we all know, anything can (and usually will) happen at Talladega. It’s the one track in the Chase that puts knots in Chasers stomachs, and boogeymen under their beds.

Here’s your three good options for ‘Dega, that not only have the chance of being in the Top-10 when the smoke clears, but also take an outside shot at the win:

Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and Kurt Busch.

OK, Vickers yet again. He’s performed pretty solid on the plate tracks, and his only win in the series came in this event in 2006.

David Ragan has surprisingly been a familiar face in the Top-10 for plate events as well this season, and the same goes for Kurt, despite an accident last July at Daytona.

When it comes to the plate tracks, just roll your dice. These tracks take more than stats into account, as one lone sneeze can kill a stat quicker than it takes to come out. That’s anywhere from 95 to 650 mph, according to Wikipedia, in case you were wondering.

That being the case, momentum on these types of tracks is important. Not just from recent weeks, but from recent plate races as well. And don’t let the qualifying results fool you. The chance of a Chaser hitting the pole is slim, as it’s an impound race and most teams in the Top-35 will be focusing solely on race runs. This is one place where you won’t hear teams talking about qualifying for track position, for once.

When the checkers fall, how will your dice roll have turned out? Will they be shaken up like the points could be?

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