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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte - Coca Cola 600

The schedule this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is finally back to normal–in my mind at least. There will be a practice session held on Thursday afternoon and qualifying will be held later that night. Friday will be an off-day for the drivers, but Saturday they will get two practice sessions to perfect their cars for the big race on Sunday night. The Coca Cola 600 is the longest race (in terms of mileage) for the 2011 season, and Charlotte is definitely known for producing some very exciting racing.

During The Last Points-Paying Race At Charlotte…Kyle Busch led 217 laps but it was Jamie McMurray crossing the finish line first. Busch went on to follow him, and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Greg Biffle rounded out the top five. In last year’s spring race (the 2010 Coca Cola 600), the elder Busch brother (Kurt) led 252 laps after starting second and picked up his second–and ultimately final–win of the season. McMurray finished 2nd in that race, while Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann closed out the top five. McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to post top ten finishes in both races at Charlotte Motor Speedway during the two points-paying races in 2010. In last weekend’s All-Star Race, Carl Edwards won the $1 million dollar prize followed by Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Tony Stewart, and Greg Biffle.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Now that the schedule is back to normal, I would put a lot of emphasis on average practice speeds and ten-lap averages during the final two sessions to determine your rosters. Here’s how each driver did in practice last fall at Charlotte and how they finished. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards were both two of the fastest in average speed for the recent All-Star race, and one went on to win the race (Edwards) while Biffle finished 5th. Tony Stewart had the best ten-lap average during the All-Star practice and wound up finishing a solid 4th. Be sure to check out my practice breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com this week, as it will be more telling as to who has a good car than the recent ones have.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been pretty much untouchable all season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. As you know, Edwards won the All-Star Race last weekend, and while he’s not stellar at Charlotte by any means, he does have an average finish of 11.3 in points-paying races here. He finished 3rd at Texas and won at Las Vegas, so expect Edwards to fight for the win on Sunday night, especially after not getting the finish he deserved at Dover.

2. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has never won at Charlotte–and that includes All-Star Races. He is, however, on a seven-race streak of top 10s in points paying races at this track, and the only reason his average career finish here is so low (15.2) is because he wasn’t very good at this track early in his Sprint Cup career. The race is 600 miles on Sunday night (and that doesn’t include practice), so Kyle better hope that the Gibbs engine problem is solved or he will severely disappoint fantasy owners on Sunday night. Busch finished 2nd to Edwards in the All-Star Race last weekend.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has four straight top 10s at Charlotte and I fully expect that streak to continue this weekend. He finished 6th in the All-Star Race (out of 21) and has a little momentum after “stealing” a win in Dover. His driver rating at Charlotte over the past two years is fourth-best in the series, so Kenseth isn’t getting good finishes here just by dumb luck. He won here in 2000 and has finished outside of the top twenty just 6 times in his 23 career starts at this track.

4. Jimmie Johnson -In the eight points-paying races at Charlotte from 2003 to 2006, “Five Time” finished in the top three in every single race. His career average finish here is right around 9th and he owns six wins at this track. You probably wonder why–with those numbers–Jimmie isn’t ranked number one this week. Well, he didn’t run well at all in the All-Star Race (11th-place finish), and while I know that that race doesn’t particularly translate to how someone will run during the actual race, it’s still the same track. There has never been a points-paying race at Charlotte–that Johnson participated in–that he didn’t lead a lap, so expect JJ to challenge for the lead at least once on Sunday night.

5. Greg Biffle - Load up on the Roush Fords this weekend! They “Big Three” in that stable all looked great in the All-Star Race, and “The Biff” ended up 4th after starting 3rd. His career average finish at Charlotte is 15.5 and he finished 4th at Texas in April. Greg has never won here, but he does have six top 10s in his 16 career starts at this track. He’s been pretty good for the entire season this year, and if you take away some of the problems they had (like the fuel issue at Vegas), could easily be in the top eight in points.

6. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is either going to challenge for a top five on Sunday night, or he’s going to finish in the 30s. I don’t particularly like Red Bull Racing at Charlotte, but his teammate has found some success in that equipment. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is right around 13th and he won both races here in 2006. As long as his equipment holds up and nothing crazy happens to the #4 Toyota on Sunday night, a good finish should be expected.

7. Tony Stewart - It’s almost summer, and that’s the time when “Smoke” really starts running well. He finished a respectable 4th in the All-Star Race last weekend, and Tony hasn’t posted a top ten finish in the last six points-paying races at Charlotte, I could easily see that changing this weekend. He has one win here–that came in 2003–and Stewart’s career average finish at this track is 12.2. Watch Stewart’s average speed during practice, as well as his ten-lap average. If he’s near the top in both of those, stick him on your roster.

8. Jeff Gordon - Gordon hasn’t had a top ten since Talladega, so this ranking may be a bit high. If he practices just decent or even below-average, avoid him this week. I don’t like how Gordon is running this season, and pretty much the only time I will take him is if he surprises me in practice. At Charlotte, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six races and owns a career average finish right around 15th–including five wins. In his twenty career top 10s at this track, sixteen have been top 5s, so expect a really strong run or a disappointing finish out of Gordon this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin - Like I said before, the Gibbs stable better hope that their engines can last for the longest race of the season. Hamlin’s career average finish at Charlotte is 14.6 and he finished 4th here in the fall after ending up 18th in 2010’s Coca Cola 600. The former has been his best finish ever here (All-Star Race included), so don’t expect Hamlin to challenge for the win, but a top ten is possible. He ended up 7th in the All-Star Race last weekend out of 21.

10. Kevin Harvick - I really didn’t know how to rank Harvick this week, so this is probably going to be one of the drivers that will either go way up or way down when I make my post-qualifying predictions. He finished 11th and 8th in the two Charlotte races during the 2010 season, but that was last year when he was having a remarkable season overall. His career average finish at this track is 17.2, but you never know where “The Closer” will end up when it’s all said and done. He finished 9th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

11. Mark Martin - I’m still not liking how Martin is running this season, which is why I have him ranked 11th. He has been good here recently, with a worst finish of 17th over the past four races, but I just don’t see him doing anything spectacular on Sunday night. Martin’s average finish over the course of career at Charlotte Motor Speedway has been right around 15th, and I think he will finish between 11th and 15th on Sunday night.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finished 2nd at Texas in April and has two top 10s in his past three starts at Charlotte. His best finish here came in 2007 when he finished 2nd and Clint finished 2nd in the All-Star Race last weekend after starting 2nd. A finish between 12th and 15th is likely for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cracked the top ten. He has six top 10s in the last seven races of the year, so he definitely has momentum on his side.

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Logano’s best track, but I don’t think that he will finish as good as his career average finish (6.9). He has three top 10s in his four career starts at Charlotte with a worst finish of 13th, which came last year in the Coca Cola 600. With the way his season has been going, I probably won’t pick him this week, but you can’t go against Joey’s history at this track. He finished 5th in the Showdown last weekend.

14. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s season has to turn around eventually..right? He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season, and while I don’t think that he will repeat anywhere near that on Sunday night, this is his third-best track on the circuit (with an average finish of 15th) and a top fifteen is definitely possible. Be sure to watch the #1 Chevy in practice. McMurray finished 17th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

15. David Reutimann - Statistically, this is Reutty’s best track, so he should definitely be in the back of your mind all week. He won 2009’s Coca Cola 600 (although it was rain-shortened) and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since then, including 5th and 9th-place efforts last season. He finished 3rd in the All-Star Race out of 21.

Underdogs Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Regan Smith - Statistically, Charlotte is Smith’s second-best track, and he hasn’t been too terrible for being a C-list driver in Yahoo! He finished 13th here last fall after a 19th-place effort in last year’s Coca Cola 600, and in Regan’s four career starts here, his worst finish has been 23rd.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose usually races very well in the Showdown races, but that success doesn’t translate to actual points-paying races. He finished 4th at Las Vegas and 6th at Texas, though, so make sure you watch the #9 Ford in practice.

David Ragan - I really like how Ragan is racing this season and his car looked great when he won the Showdown last weekend. The #6 Ford wound up 8th in the All-Star Race, ahead of Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson. In the last six points-paying races at this track, David has three top 10s and he finished 7th at Texas in April.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two finishes of 5th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but he’s pretty inconsistent–and Red Bull Racing is as well. He has three top tens in the last four races, and if he has a good car on Sunday night, Brian could make that four of five.

Those To Avoid Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior just isn’t very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He looked average in both the Showdown and the All-Star Race, and Little E hasn’t posted a top ten in a points-paying race here since early 2008. Over the past two years, drivers such as Casey Mears, Scott Speed, and Robby Gordon have better average finishes than Earnhardt at this track. Robby Gordon! Pass on the 88 this weekend. He finished 14th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Jeff Burton - In the last four points-paying races at Charlotte, Jeff Burton has posted three finishes in the 20s. Those finishes aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships, so stay away from him this week. I would say a mid-teens finish for Burton this week would be the best that he could do.

Kurt Busch - I understand that Kurt Busch was very solid here last spring, but it seems like week in and week out lately the “double deuce” isn’t running up to potential. He’s either really good here or really bad, but and the only way I would recommend him this week would be if he qualified up front and looked great in practice. Kurt finished 13th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski - BK has had a couple of good races recently at Darlington and Dover, but I’m going to wait a while until I really believe that the chemistry between him and crew chief Paul Wolfe will translate to a bunch of success in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski finished 20th and 27th at the two Charlotte races in 2010. He finished 18th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover - FedEx 400

This week the Sprint Cup Series visits Dover International Speedway for the FedEx 400. This will be the first of two races this season at this 1.0-mile racetrack, with the other happening in October. Seven current drivers have at least two wins at Dover, so for the second week in a row we might see a first time winner (or so we hope). 400 laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, with the green flag set to drop around 1:45 p.m. eastern time. Two practices will be held on Friday morning/afternoon and qualifying is set to start around noon on Saturday–which will be the final time the cars are on the track before raceday.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson started from the pole and led 191 laps before winning his sixth (and ultimately final) win of the 2010 season. Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson and Kyle Busch led over 95% of the laps, and the latter went on to take the checkered flag by the end of the race. JJ wound up 15th that day because of a late pit road speeding penalty, while Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and David Reutimann all scored top fives that day, along with Busch. The only drivers to finish in the top ten in both Dover races last season were: Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The FedEx 400:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl won here in 2007, and believe it or not, this is statistically his third-best track. He has made thirteen starts at “The Monster Mile” and has the best average finish of anyone in the series with 7.7. Edwards has posted at least a top-ten finish in nine of the last eleven races here and his worst effort in his career here has been 18th–which was his first start here. With the way his season is going, I fully expect the #99 Ford to challenge for the win on Sunday.

2. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” would be ranked number one this week, but I still don’t think that he’s running as well as normal. I know he’s second in points, but we’re not seeing the consistently strong #48 Chevy week in and week out, even though he still somehow manages to get the good finishes. His average driver rating over the past four races here has been 142.9–which is absolutely incredible–and he has recorded three wins in those four races. Jimmie’s average finish at Dover is 9.7 and he has six total wins here.

3. Ryan Newman - Believe it or not, this is statistically Newman’s best track on the circuit. He has 18 starts at Dover and has visited victory lane three times, although the most recent was in 2004. After his string of three sub-par races, “The Rocketman” notched another top five for the season last week in Darlington, and I full expect him to continue running strong this weekend. His average career finish at Dover is 10.3.

4. Kyle Busch - Let’s hope “Rowdy” and Kevin Harvick can stay away from each other this week–especially if you have Kyle on your fantasy roster. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, with six top five finishes (and four outside of the top twenty) in his twelve starts at “The Monster Mile”, but I think he will “hit” this weekend. Busch has two wins at this track, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to get around this place.

5. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has hit rough patch recently, with a best finish of 21st since his win at Texas, but I think he will “reverse the curse” this weekend in Dover. He finished 18th here last fall (he cut a tire while running near the top ten), but before that he had a streak of five straight top five finishes at “The Monster Mile”. Kenseth won here in 2006 and has averaged a finish of around 13th in his 24 starts here.

6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is finally getting his season turned around, getting two of his three top 10s in his past two starts. At Dover, Denny hasn’t been great, but he recorded top 10s in both races last season and I like the little momentum that he is building lately. Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, Hamlin is a bit hit-or-miss here, with half of his starts ending in finishes outside of the top twenty. Proceed with caution if you pick the #11 Toyota this weekend.

7. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is on a streak of two top 10s this season, and I think he will easily make it three after this weekend. He’s not as good as his teammate (Ryan Newman) is at Dover, but Tony isn’t terrible. He has three top 10s in his past four starts here and owns a career average finish of 11.8, which includes two wins. It’s never a good idea to go against Steward when he gets a little momentum.

8. Greg Biffle - In the last four races of this season, “The Biff” has three top 10s and a worst finish of just 15th. In the last four races at Dover, Biffle has two top 10s and a worst finish of 19th. He’s won here twice (in 2005 and 2008) and has posted a top ten finish in eight of his last ten starts at “The Monster Mile”. Look for Biffle to make it nine of his last eleven after this weekend.

9. Mark Martin - I think this may prove to be too high of a ranking for Mark Martin, but I just have a hunch about him this week. He’s finished outside of the top 20 just once this season, and I don’t think he will make that twice on Sunday. Martin finished 12th and 15th at Dover last season, but in 2009 he recorded top 10s in both races (including a 2nd-place effort in the fall race). Make sure you check out what I have to say in my Predictions article before locking him into your roster this weekend.

10. Jeff Burton - Each week I have said that Burton won’t get his first top ten of the season…but I think this is the week! He finished 2nd in both Dover races during the 2010 season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th since 2004. Burton won here in 2006, and while I don’t think he will get his second win at this track this weekend, I do believe that a top ten is likely.

11. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has just one top ten in his past six races this season, but he could grab another this season. I have him ranked lower than some others will, though, simply because of how bad he has been running recently. It’s like a weekly comedy routine reading all of his comments during the race on Twitter. The elder Busch brother has three top 5s in his past four starts at Dover, but he’s never won here. Will he finally turn things around this weekend?

12. Kevin Harvick - It’s hard to believe that “Happy” isn’t the first Richard Childress Racing car ranked this week, but he’s not that stellar at Dover. He finished 7th here last spring, but that has been just one of his two top 10s here in the last nine races. Harvick hasn’t finished worst than 17th in his last five starts at Dover, though, and I don’t think streak will end this weekend.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex actually didn’t have a huge problem last week! He got his second top ten of the season in Darlington, but do you think he can make it two in a row? It’s possible–he at Dover in 2007–but I don’t think he will. Truex has just one top 20 in his past four starts at this track, and that was a 12th last season. His career average finish here is 16.8.

14. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has finished 8th at “The Monster Mile” three times in his career, but he’s more likely to finish around 14th. His past five races here have ended with finishes of: 25th, 17th, 15th, and 11th. With Clint’s five-race top ten streak coming to an end last week (although it shouldn’t have), he should come out to prove that he can rebound, though, so this ranking may prove to be too low. Only time will tell.

15. Jeff Gordon - If you think Gordon is running up to potential this season, you are wrong. I know he won at Phoenix, but he’s usually not getting the finishes he deserves at his good tracks. This is why I have Jeff ranked so low this week. He finished 11th in both Dover races last season, and while he has finished outside of the top twelve just once in his past ten starts here, I think Gordon will have a hard time cracking the top ten this week. A top fifteen will be more likely for the #24 Chevrolet.

Underdogs Entering The FedEx 400:

Paul Menard - Now that Menard has fallen back down to earth, he’s back as an underdog. Like most tracks, he has been consistently average at Dover–with 71% of his finishes between 19th and 22nd–but he finished 7th here last fall after starting 9th. I don’t think he will grab another top ten, but a top fifteen is within reach.

David Reutimann - Reutty won the pole here in 2009 and recorded his first top five at this track in last season’s spring race. I don’t think he will get his first top ten of the season this weekend unless he gambles at the end, though.

David Ragan - Ragan was a little disappointing for me last week, but I still like how he is running this season. His best finish at Dover has been only 14th, but he’s been consistent here (his last four finishes have been 24th, 26th, 24th, 24th). It seems like the weeks you don’t expect the #6 to be strong are the ones that he is, so this may be the week.

A.J. Allmendinger - I seriously think The ‘Dinger could crack the top ten in points after this weekend. He has the seventh-best average driver rating at Dover over the past four races and has finishes of 29th, 7th, 14th, and 10th here since joining Richard Petty Motorsports. If he has a strong car like he has many times this season, expect Allmendinger to challenge for a top fifteen (and possibly a top ten).

Those To Avoid Entering The FedEx 400:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has just been top-ten good this season, or absolutely terrible, and this isn’t the week to take a chance with him on your fantasy roster. He has one top ten at Dover in twelve career starts, and that came back in 2005.

Marcos Ambrose - I typically like Marcos on tracks that are one-mile or less, but this week is the exception. His average finish at Dover is right around 24th and his best came in 2009 when he finished 14th. There are much better options this week than Ambrose.

Juan Montoya - Montoya has hit a cold spell this season, with a best finish of 23rd in the past three races, and although he finished 4th at Dover in 2009, that is his only top five at this track (and just his second top ten). If he qualifies in the top five, he could score a good run, but he’s a little too risky for me this weekend. I would avoid the #42.

Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to lie, last week’s top five finish by BK was a complete fluke. The only reason he got that 3rd-place was because he stayed out during the final pit stop. At Dover, he has made two starts, with 18th and 22nd-place runs to show for it. His driver ratings during those races, though, suggest to me that he lucked into those as well.

I will be back to posting my weekly Practice Breakdown and Post-Qualifying Predictions over on ifantasyrace.com, so be sure to check those out. The Sprint Cup All-Star weekend happens after Dover, so that will be an off-week for my Preview article. After that, though, it will return when the boys head to Charlotte for some Sunday night racing on May 29th.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville - Goody’s Fast Relief 500

After the checkered flag waved at Fontana, I had to sit back and rub my eyes; did Kevin Harvick just beat Jimmie Johnson at one of his best tracks? I think most NASCAR fans–myself included–breathed a sigh of relief that this could possibly be the year that Johnson gets knocked off of his throne. Of course, running second every race in the Chase will earn any driver a championship, but I think it was a good thing for NASCAR to see “The Champ” get beat (as well as have an exciting finish after an ultimately dull race).

This week the Sprint Cup series makes a stop at Martinsville Speedway in Virgina, commonly known as “The Paperclip“. This will be the first of two stops at the track this season, with the second coming in late October. Not many drivers have visited victory lane here recently, with Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon combining to win 14 of the last 16 races held at this 0.526-mile oval.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Denny Hamlin held off a hard-charging Mark Martin for his seventh win of the 2010 season. Martin finished second that day with Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson rounding out the top five. In the first race at Martinsville last season, Hamlin led 172 laps and got the win on a green-white-checkered finish over Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. followed those two to the checkers. Hamlin, Logano, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson were the only drivers to record top 10s in both races at “The Paperclip” in 2010. The results of the most recent race at Martinsville can be found by clicking here, and this will show you how drivers finished compared to how they were in practice.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Quite simply, load up on Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson this week. Those two have won the past nine races here and it seems like they are always up front. Some people may shy away from the Gibbs Toyotas, but I don’t see much of a problem with them at the short tracks; picking them at the intermediate ovals, though, is a different story. Last season, qualifying wasn’t very important. In October, Hamlin won from the pole but only one other person who finished in the top ten started there. During the spring race here, none of the top eight finishers started better than 11th. Also, most drivers are good here or bad here, and very rarely do you see the “bad” drivers having a good race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

1. Denny Hamlin - This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Hamlin has won three of the last four races at “The Paperclip” with his other finish being 2nd. He’s made eleven starts at this track and has ten top 10s and an average finish of 6th. The only race that Denny hasn’t completed all of the laps was his second start here where he started 41st and got caught up in an accident. He’s led almost 36% of the laps ran here in the past two years and should be a lock for a top five this week. Don’t worry about the engine problems with the Gibbs cars this week because, as I said before, I don’t think they will have issues on short tracks.

2. Jimmie Johnson - For the first time since 2005, “Five Time” didn’t lead any laps in the two races held at Martinsville last season, but he still posted finishes of 9th and 5th. Jimmie has won here six times and is on a streak of seventeen straight top 10s at this track. Johnson looked good at Bristol a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he won’t challenge for the win on Sunday. He’s real hungry to break his winless streak, especially after getting beat by Harvick in California last week, and this is the perfect place for that to happen.

3. Kevin Harvick - I expect “Happy” to ride the momentum from his win at Fontana into Martinsville and be a factor once again this week. He started on the pole in the spring race last year and led 57 laps before he had problems and wound up finishing 35th. Harvick started 35th in the October race but still came away with a top five finish after leading 97 laps. Kevin has finished in the top twelve in eight of last ten races held at “The Paperclip” and has had great cars in almost every race this season (just not the best luck).

4. Jeff Gordon - Gordon isn’t as good as his teammate here, but he’s damn close. He’s made 36 starts at this track, coming away with 29 top tens and seven wins. He finished 20th in the fall race last season after being wrecked by Kurt Busch (possible payback from Sonoma) and that broke his streak of fifteen top 10s. I expect Gordon to start that streak again this week, and a top five is definitely within his grasps. I think Gordon has been average this season (except for his win in Phoenix) so keep an eye on him this weekend, but it’s real hard to go against his history at this track.

5. Carl Edwards - I’m really liking how smooth Carl’s season is going so far and I think he will have another strong run this weekend. He didn’t have an awesome-fast car in Fontana last week, but still came away with a 6th-place finish (which was higher than he ran all day). Edwards finished 8th in both Martinsville races in 2010 but has just four top 10s to his name in his thirteen starts here. He’s never led a lap here but that could change this weekend. He will be the best pick of the Roush-Fenway Racing camp this weekend.

6. Kyle Busch - Don’t make the mistake I have in the past two weeks and not pick Rowdy Busch in fantasy. He isn’t stellar at this track, but between him and Carl Edwards, there are no other drivers that are on as hot of streaks as these two. Kyle’s best finish at Martinsville is 4th (and he’s done that four times) and he has finished there in two of the past three races here. He’s a little hit-or-miss at this track, with five top 5s and five finishes worse than 20th in his twelve starts. Which Kyle Busch will show up this weekend? I’d bet on the “hit” one.

7. Ryan Newman - In case you didn’t realize this, Ryan Newman is 2nd in points and has as many top 10s and top 5s as Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards (four and three, respectively). “The Rocketman” is a great qualifier at Martinsville–with an average start of 9th and three career poles–and has finished in the top five in 33% of his starts here. Over the past four races at “The Paperclip,” Newman has three finishes in the top seven, and I think it’s very possible he will end up right around there on Sunday. His average driver rating of 98.4 is seventh-best in the series at this track over the past two years.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you’ve read anything from me over the past few weeks, you know I’ve been high on Junior, and that won’t change this week. He didn’t have a great race at Auto Club Speedway, but he still managed a 12th-place finish at one of his worst tracks. Martinsville is Dale Jr’s third-best track and I think he will have a similar race to last fall: lead some laps and get a solid top ten finish. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt has four top tens in six starts at “The Paperclip,” and in his career he averages right around a 14th-place finish.

9. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made 46 starts at Martinsville and has come away with 24 top tens as a result. He has two wins here and has finished in the top eight in three of the past four races here. Martin once again showed his inconsistency in Fontana and that is the reason he is ranked 9th for my preview. He was super fast in practice last week and had many people thinking he had a shot at a top five, only to finish 20th. Like teammate Jeff Gordon, I don’t think Martin is running as well as he should this season. Over the past two years, Mark has the sixth-best average driver rating at this track, but I would consider him a risky pick this week.

10. Jeff Burton - The #31 team has gotten off to a slow start this season, but their finishes have been getting progressively better and I think this is the week that they get their first top ten of the 2011 season. In the two races at Martinsville last year, Burton led 140 and 134 laps but had disappointing finishes of 20th and 9th. He has just one win at this track (in 1997) but hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty since 2006. Burton’s career average finish at “The Paperclip” is 13.8 and he has had the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races here.

11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finally got a top ten last week and I think he could challenge for a second this week at Martinsville. He has just one top five finish in ten starts at this track, but he’s recorded top ten finishes in five of the last seven races here. Clint has never led a lap at “The Paperclip,” so don’t expect him to challenge for a win, but a top ten won’t be out of the question. His last four spring races here have given Bowyer finishes of 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th.

12. Tony Stewart - Last year was an off-year for “Smoke” at Martinsville, with finishes of 26th and 24th, but he has won here twice and his career average finish is a respectable 13.1. In his past eleven starts at Martinsville, Stewart has just three finishes outside of the top fifteen and none worse than 26th. Over the past two seasons, Tony has the ninth-best average driver rating at this track.

13. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, Montoya actually hasn’t been terrible at “The Paperclip.” He’s made eight starts at this track and seven of them have ended in top 20 finishes, although only two have been in the top ten. Juan has been in the top ten in points all season thus far and I don’t think that will change this week. His finishes of 36th and 19th in 2010 at Martinsville are the two worst in Montoya’s Sprint Cup career.

14. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” nearly won the race here last March and was one of only four drivers to score top tens in both trips to Martinsville in 2010. His first trip to “The Paperclip” gave him a 32nd-place finish but he backed that up with a 12-place effort later in 2009. Logano hasn’t been stellar this year, so proceed with caution, but statistically this is Joey’s fourth-best track. He needs a good run to get his season back on track and this could be the week that Logano breaks through.

15. Paul Menard - Paul continued his great start to the season at Fontana with yet another career-best finish, but for him to accomplish that this week it may be a bit tougher. Last season, while running for Richard Petty Motorsports, Menard collected finishes of 14th and 13th. This season he has Richard Childress Racing power under the hood, and they have had success here in the past. Will we see another career-best finish for Paul Menard this week? His worst finish at Martinsville has been 27th in his seven starts here.

Underdogs Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Jamie McMurray - McMurray has finished in the top eleven in three of the past four races here and he has nine top 10s in his sixteen career starts. Word of caution: because he hasn’t ran well this season at all, Jamie will be a risky pick this week, but he’s not terrible at this track: statistically this is McMurray’s fifth-best venue.

Brian Vickers - Dang was Vickers and his Red Bull Toyota fast in Fontana. Will they be able to turn that into a good run at Martinsville? We will find out. Vickers has three finishes of 11th or better in his past four starts here and finished 6th in the spring race in 2010. Kasey Kahne drove this car to a 14th-place finish last October at this track.

Brad Keselowski - He’s made just two starts at this track but Keselowski has finishes of 12th and 10th to his name. This year, BK finished 15th at Phoenix and 18th at Bristol, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question this week, but I doubt he will be able to score another top ten.

David Ragan - I usually only use Ragan on oval tracks but he hasn’t been terrible at Martinsville. Last year he finished 16th and 17th and in 2008 he posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He finished 16th at Bristol a few weeks ago, the first short track race of the season.

Those To Avoid Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Regan Smith - Smith finished 14th here in 2008 but that is his only finish inside the top 20 in his career at this track. Darrell Waltrip keeps saying how good of a season this guy is having, but I just don’t see it: he’s 30th in points and the only race he looked impressive was Daytona. Regan’s cumulative driver ratings over the past three races don’t even add up to Denny Hamlin’s driver rating in the fall race last year.

David Reutimann - Reutty hasn’t even looked good on the tracks where he is expected to perform well so there’s no reason to think he will have a good run on a track that he has an average finish around 26th at. Last year at this track Reutimann finished 27th and 28th. Save him for the intermediates.

Kurt Busch - I expected a 25th-place finish at best last week out of Kurt but he somehow pulled off a 17th. He may do that again this week, but I’m not about to put him on my roster. Busch’s last top ten came in 2005, and while he has one win here, just 4 of Kurt’s 21 starts here have given him a top ten finish.

Martin Truex, Jr. - He finished 5th here last spring, but one good race doesn’t make you a great driver (I’m talking about you, too, Trevor Bayne). His average finish is 22.5 at this track and three of Truex’s last four starts here have given him finishes of either 28th or 29th. He looks like his 2010 self thus far, so don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the practice speed charts this weekend. Just don’t be fooled by him.

I’m just hoping for an enjoyable race this week, and I’m sure many others are as well. I nearly fell asleep multiple times during the race last week, but I must say, those last ten or so laps were intense. I will post my final predictions for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 over at ifantasyrace.com so be sure to check those out, and make sure you join NASCARNation if you haven’t already. Good luck to everyone’s fantasy rosters this week, and if you want my opinion between two drivers where you don’t know who to pick, feel free to send me a tweet.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: California - Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile “D-shaped” oval that is most similar to Michigan International Speedway. One difference between the two is that the track is Michigan has a little bit more banking than the one in California. Two hundred laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, making it just 400 miles from start to finish. The last fall race here in Fontana was the first that went just 200 laps (they usually go 250 when they visit Fontana). There is originally two races here during the Sprint Cup season, but schedule changes have taken away the October race in 2011–to the elation of many. The previous nine races held at this track have gone their scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At California…The lead changed hands many times last October (fourteen racers led) but it was Tony Stewart who crossed the finish line first. Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson started seventh and led 101 laps in route to his first victory of the season. Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished second and third, followed by Mark Martin and Joey Logano.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The time to take major chances was last week in Bristol. This week, you should go with the favorites and maybe sprinkle in a “surprise” pick if they look good on Friday and Saturday (like Marcos Ambrose at Las Vegas Motor Speedway). Qualifying is important, but don’t put a bunch of emphasis on it. In the two races at Auto Club Speedway in 2010, fourteen of the twenty top ten finishers started outside of the top ten. Last fall, average practice speeds weren’t too telling either. Click here for the results of the October race (they are sorted in order from fastest to slowest in average practice speed with their result underneath). During the last race here there were many pit road speeding violations, and those can mess up a roster real quick.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Auto Club 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson - This shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone–Jimmie Johnson owns this track. He’s made sixteen career starts in Fontana and his worst finish is 16th. In those sixteen races, Johnson owns eleven top three finishes and his career average finish here is 5.3. Over the past two years, the 48 Chevrolet had had an astounding 134.4 average driver rating at California. With five career wins at California–two of them coming in the last three races–Johnson should be a lock this weekend for everyone.

2. Carl Edwards - Nobody has been on more of a hot streak lately as Cousin Carl. He finished off the 2010 season with two straight wins and has finished in the top two in three of the four races this season. If he wouldn’t have had the wreck in Phoenix, that number just may be four-for-four. Edwards wasn’t great in Fontana last season–posting finishes of 13th and 34th–but it’s hard to go against someone who is running as well as Carl is. In thirteen career races at California, Edwards owns ten top seven finishes, and that includes one win (coming in 2008).

3. Tony Stewart - Since Stewart-Haas Racing was formed in 2009, “Smoke” has finished in the top ten in every race at California. He is the most recent winner here and looked awesome at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (even though that isn’t exactly like Auto Club Speedway). In nineteen career starts at this track, Stewart has amassed eleven top 10s. He was running pretty good at Bristol until he ran into his teammate, Ryan Newman, and I think Tony will be back up front this week.

4. Matt Kenseth - Roush-Fenway Racing–as well as all Fords in general–have been so fast to start the season that it’s hard to go against them at their “bread and butter” tracks. Kenseth has an average finish of 10.3 at Auto Club Speedway and from 2005 to 2009 he rattled off eight straight top 10s. Over that span, he collected three wins and never finished worse than 7th. Most of the Roush cars had engine difficulties last time the series was at Fontana, but as long as that doesn’t happen this weekend, it should be a perfect race to load up on the Roushkateers.

5. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had a top ten car in Las Vegas but engine problems made him retire early that day. He also had an engine problem in the October race at California, but he knows how to get around this track when he has a good car. Busch won here in 2005 and went on to record seven straight top tens after that. He hasn’t led a bunch of laps here, though, so don’t expect to see Kyle fighting for the lead all day. I love picking Kyle Busch after a win and this week is no exception. Joe Gibbs Racing engines have been hit-or-miss this year, though, so proceed with caution when selecting Busch.

6. Jeff Gordon - It was a great recovery for Gordon last October at Auto Club Speedway: he had a speeding penalty late and rallied back for a 9th-place finish. Jeff has won here three times and over the course of his career (21 races) he has an average finish of around 11th. He’s a little hit-or-miss at Fontana lately, though: in the last nine races he has four top three finishes, but he also has three finishes outside of the top fifteen over that span. Gordon has led at least one lap in each of the past six races held at California.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother hasn’t been as flashy as Carl Edwards this season, but he has been the most consistent driver in the series thus far, and he is coming into a track where he has one win and owns an average finish of 12.7. Three of the past four races in Fontana have ended with Kurt Busch in the top ten, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen this weekend. He finished 21st here in April, but the entire Penske stable looked average at best all weekend. In 17 career starts at Auto Club Speedway, Kurt has finished on the lead lap in 14 of them.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has never finished outside of the top 20 at California, and he needs a good run to kick-start his season. He didn’t look great at Las Vegas, which is part of the reason I have him ranked a little low, but Clint has been solid at California lately. His last three starts have netted him finishes of 2nd, 8th, and 9th. Bowyer has led just 44 laps in ten starts at Fontana, so don’t expect a dominating performance, but he is capable of getting a top ten. With the way his luck has been going this year, some people will hold off for a while on picking the #33, but if he has a good run on Sunday, you can gain a bunch of points on the competition.

9. Greg Biffle - As surprising as it may seem, “The Biff” actually isn’t as good at California as many would expect him to be. He has won here, but other than that he has been extremely hit-or-miss: in sixteen starts at Auto Club Speedway, Biffle has amassed four top fives but ten finishes 15th or worse. He had a dominant car at Las Vegas, though, which is really the only similar race you can go off of from this year, and all of the Fords have looked fast this season. It’s a risky pick, but it’s hard to go against the Roush-Fenway Fords at the intermediate tracks.

10. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is on a streak of three top 10s at California and has finished outside of the top 20 just once in his past nine starts at this track. He’s not great by any means here, though: Harvick’s career average finish is 17.1 and he had just four top 10s in his first fourteen career starts at Fontana. He may continue his streak of good finishes here, but it is certainly possible that he ends up with a teens finish on Sunday like he did at Las Vegas.

11. Paul Menard - Okay, I’ll hop onto the Paul Menard bandwagon this week. He’s had career-best finishes in every single race this season (seriously), so why not another one at Auto Club Speedway? Menard finished 18th here in the spring last year and that is his top finish in eight starts at this track. Everything is going right for this young man this season and unless you see his luck running out this week, he should be a good darkhorse pick this week. These intermediate tracks were the ones he was best on last season. Menard had 11th and 12th-place runs at Michigan while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

12. Kasey Kahne - Kasey was the surprise of the race for me in October at this track. He posted a fourth-place finish and a driver rating of 106.2. He’s had two 34th-place finishes at Fontana recently, but his other five races in that span have been top 12s. Kahne’s average finish at Auto Club Speedway is 15.4 and his average start is around 10th. He won here in 2006 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. Scott Speed drove the #82 car (basically the #4 car that Kahne is in now) to an 11th-place finish here last season.

13. Mark Martin - I said don’t pick Martin last week and regretted that after he posted a 12th-place finish in “Thunder Valley”. He’s not having a terrible season (he sits 11th in points) but I don’t think his is racing up to potential yet. Martin has finished 6th, 4th, and 4th in his last three starts at Fontana, but I don’t expect him to finish there this weekend. Mark’s average finish here is 13.3 and I think that is closer to where he will end up on Sunday.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior didn’t have a great race like I expected at Bristol last week, but he still posted a solid 11th-place finish. He’s not good at California by any means (22.3 career average finish) but I love picking him when he is on a roll, and he has been consistent every race after Daytona this year. He has won at Michigan–the track most similar to Fontana–and he had a 2nd-place finish here in 2006. I’m not going to guarantee a top ten finish this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Junior finished 8th at Las Vegas and ended up 16th at the last race here after starting 9th.

15. Denny Hamlin - It might just be me, but Hamlin has been quietly average this season. His best finish so far in 2011 came in Las Vegas when he drove from the back of the pack to grab a top ten. Other than that race, I haven’t been impressed by the driver that won eight races in 2010. Hamlin has been hit-or-miss at Auto Club Speedway lately with three top 10s in the past six races but also three finishes 29th or worse in that span. Be cautious when picking Hamlin this week. His career average finish here is 17.2.

Underdogs Entering The Auto Club 400:

Brian Vickers - Red Bull Racing seems like they either bring top ten cars to these intermediate tracks or 25th-place cars. Last spring at California, Vickers finished 12th–right behind his then-teammate, Scott Speed. Brian hasn’t looked overly impressive this season, but he finished 10th at Las Vegas and six finishes in the top 12 over his past seven starts at California.

David Ragan - Like I said, don’t go against the Roushkateers on intermediates. Ragan could have won the pole at Vegas but spun in qualifying and finished 22nd after starting in the back. In his first six starts at Auto Club Speedway, Ragan never finished worse than 17th, but last year he finished 32nd and 23rd. I expect him to get back on track this weekend and could pull off a surprise top ten.

Marcos Ambrose - The only reason I’m listing him as an underdog is because of how well he ran at Las Vegas. Ambrose has never finished better than 22nd at Auto Club Speedway, but Kasey Kahne drove this #9 Ford to a top five finish the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited this track. Keep your eye on Marcos this weekend.

David Reutimann - It seems like the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas are either great cars or they fall of during the race and finish around 20th. Reutimann finished 13th in Las Vegas and posted 10th and 15th-place efforts at Fontana in 2010. In eight career starts here, Reutty has four top 15s, with two of them being top 10s.

Those To Avoid Entering The Auto Club 400:

Jeff Burton - Not only is he having absolutely no luck this season but Burton is also decent at best at Auto Club Speedway. He finished 3rd here last February but that is his only top ten in the last five races here. Wait until the #31 Chevrolet has (at least) a decent run before even thinking about picking him.

Joey Logano - Joey’s average finish here is 14th but, like Burton, he seems to be having problems each week, whether it be an engine problem or a loose wheel. Go ahead and pick the #20 if you want, but he has burned me too many times in 2011 to recommend him right now.

Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac is also having terrible luck this season, but even if he wasn’t I wouldn’t recommend him at Fontana. He won both poles last year but led only 14 laps and finished 17th in both races. He hasn’t had a top ten here since 2006 and his average finish since then has been 22.8.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex looked like his normal self last week, being hit-or-miss. He had a good run in the beginning of the race but fell back. Martin finished 6th at Las Vegas, which will make some people look at him this week, but his average finish at California is 21.2 and he hasn’t had a top fifteen finish here since 2008.

If you had a bad week at Bristol, don’t worry: so did I. Just shrug it off because that track is a tricky one to predict. This week should be easier. Be sure to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and check out NASCAR Nation–there are many great members there to chat about racing with!

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Las Vegas - Kobalt Tools 400

Last week, Phoenix International Raceway lived up to it’s expectations in the past few years and ended yet another long winless streak, with Jeff Gordon edging out Kyle Busch in the final laps to score his first victory since 2009. This week, the Sprint Cup drivers head over to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 400. This 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” track has been kind to last week’s winner as of late, with Gordon leading over 40-percent of the laps in the past two races in Vegas.

During The Last Race At Las Vegas…Jeff Gordon led a race-high 219 laps (out of 267) after starting 2nd, but it was Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson who ended the day in victory lane. Kevin Harvick finished runner-up that day, while Gordon, Mark Martin, and Matt Kenseth rounded out the top five. Click here for the complete results of last year’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…You probably either had an average points day at Phoenix last week, or dug your hole a little bit deeper, but now we’re getting into the bulk of the season, with three of the next five races being on 1.5-mile tracks. Make sure you pay attention to who qualifies well here, as two of the previous three winners at this track have started on the front row. There will be a practice held after qualifying this week, so be sure to look at the average speeds during Happy Hour to help form your rosters.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

1. Jeff Gordon - At the beginning of each NASCAR season, momentum seems to help drivers for the first few races. After a rocky start at Daytona, Gordon went and won in the desert last week, and will ride that momentum into one of his better tracks (especially lately). Jeff led the most laps in last year’s Vegas race, but didn’t get the win, and has finished outside of the top six just once here since 2005. With one win already at this 1.5-mile track, Gordon could easily make that two this week.

2. Kyle Busch - He didn’t get the sweep last week at Phoenix, but “Rowdy” left with the points lead and he and his brother are the only two drivers on the circuit with top tens in the first two races of the season. Kyle has two poles in his preview three starts at Vegas, and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen here since his rookie year. Busch’s average finish of 11.7 at this track is fourth-best in the series.

3. Jimmie Johnson - “The Champ” has made nine career starts at Las Vegas, and has led at least one lap in all but one of them. He’s still outside of the top twelve in points, but don’t expect that to be the case after Sunday. Johnson’s last six races here have netted him four wins, and while the other two were 24th and 29th-place finishes, those have been the only times Johnson has ended up outside of the top twenty in his career.

4. Jeff Burton - Richard Childress Racing needs to turn their season around quick, and Vegas could easily be the track for that to happen. Three of the four Childress Chevrolets are outside of the top twenty in points, and Burton finds himself mired in 32nd, with finishes of 36th and 26th to start the season. At Las Vegas, though, Jeff has just one finish outside of the top twenty in 13 career races, and two of his last three starts have ended with top fives. He has won here twice before, so don’t be surprised to find the 31 car up front on Sunday.

5. Greg Biffle - These “cookie cutter” tracks are where the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers are usually at their best, and Biffle is no exception. He had engine problems during his first start here in 2004 (giving him a 40th-place finish), but since then he hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has come away with five top tens. The Biff’s driver rating has been over 100 in five of his last six starts here.

6. Matt Kenseth - Another “Roushkateer” who should finish up front is Kenseth. Aside from his 43rd-place effort in 2009 (engine problem), the #17 Ford hasn’t finished outside of the top seventeen in eleven career starts. He has won here twice, and Matt has single-digit finishes in six of his previous eight races at Vegas. Look for Kenseth to get his first top ten of the season on Sunday, and possibly even a top five.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” was downright pissed at his pit crew last week in Phoenix, but the 29 team still battled back for a solid 4th-place finish even after being caught up in “The Big One”. Harvick hasn’t been stellar at Las Vegas, but in the past three races here his driver rating has averaged 106.4 and he has two top fives. His average finish of 12.8 here is ninth-best in the series.

8. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl really loved his car last week, and was very disappointed after wrecking it. He thought he had a car that could win last week, so hopefully Edwards brings that confidence into Vegas. He hasn’t finished worse than 26th here, but in six career starts he has only two top tens. He won here in 2008, though, and these are the kind of tracks he likes.

9. Mark Martin - Like Phoenix, Martin has been consistently good at Vegas. He won here in his first start and has ten top 10s in thirteen races here. His three races that didn’t end in top tens were 30th, 40th, and 43rd-place efforts, but two of those were due to engine problems. Mark finished 4th here in 2010 and has a career average finish of 12.8, which is 8th-best in the series at Las Vegas.

10. Denny Hamlin - In Denny’s first start at Las Vegas he came away with a 10th-place finish and went on to record three straight top tens here. In 2009, though, he ended that streak with a 22nd-place effort, and last year he finished 19th. He has never been stellar here, but Hamlin has completed all but one lap in his five starts at Vegas and will be looking for his first top ten of the season on Sunday. His career average finish here is 12.6, good enough for 6th-best in the series.

11. Joey Logano - Logano needs a good run pretty bad–as he finds himself 29th in points–and Las Vegas is an excellent track for him to get back on track. Engine woes ruined his race at Phoenix (and got him pretty angry), but he looked pretty good before that. Joey has made only two starts at Las Vegas, and has finishes of 6th and 13th to show for it. A good run will definitely turn his season around, and if he shows some speed in practice, a top ten isn’t out of the question for “Sliced Bread”.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Phoenix definitely isn’t Junior’s best track, but he managed to overcome a loose wheel problem last week and score his first top ten of the season. The crew chief swap at Hendrick seems to be helping Little E thus far, and a good run at Las Vegas will help him and crew chief Steve Letarte gel even more. Dale Jr. hasn’t finished outside of the top sixteen in his last four starts here and he finished runner-up to Edwards in 2008.

13. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has been a little hit or miss at Vegas lately, but he’s coming off a solid top ten at Phoenix and is third in points behind the Busch brothers. Since 2005, Stewart has three top tens, but three finishes outside of the top 20 as well. He did accumulate four top fives in his first six starts at Las Vegas though, so he knows how to get around the track. Tony finished 7th in this race last year.

14. Kasey Kahne - Red Bull Racing seems to run well at the “cookie cutter” races, and these tracks are a strength of Kahne. He backed up his solid qualifying effort and fast practice times with a 6th-place effort in Phoenix, and I think that will boost his confidence this week. He’s made seven starts at this track and has came away with four top ten finishes. Be careful, though: Kasey is on a “streak” here. Through his whole career, Kahne has posted single-digit finishes during even-numbered years (9th, 6th, 4th, 2nd). In odd-numbered years, though, all of his finishes have been in the double digits (11th, 35th, 38th).

15. Clint Bowyer - You will look at Clint’s last two finishes here (8th and 2nd) and wonder why I have him ranked so low, but he hasn’t impressed me. His other three starts ended with 28th, 36th, and 15th-place finishes, though, and his driver rating hasn’t been over 90 in five races here (his best was 89.4 last year when he finished 8th).

Underdogs Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

David Reutimann - You always have to watch out for Reutty on these “cookie cutter” tracks–he’s at his best on them. He got off to a rough start at Vegas with a 37th-place finish in 2008, but ended up 4th in 2009 and came home 13th last year. He’s mired back in points at 31st and needs a good run to get his season back on track.

Paul Menard - Some questioned how his move to Richard Childress Racing would fare, but Menard has had good runs since switching over. He’s 11th in points and was running near the top ten in Phoenix before going down a lap and finishing 17th. Menard had strong runs at “cookie cutter” tracks last year and finished a career-best 17th at Vegas while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports in 2010.

Bill Elliott - He won’t challenge for a top ten, but a 20th-place (or better) effort wouldn’t be surprising out of Elliott. He’s 18th in points and has finished outside of the top twenty only once in seven career starts at Vegas. He could be a nice pick in allocation leagues.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose was one of my underdogs last week and ended up 16th once it was all said and done. In two career starts at Las Vegas, Marcos has finishes of 14th and 20th. Kasey Kahne drove this car last year to a 9th-place effort at this track.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:

Juan Montoya - Chances are he will look real fast in practice, and then disappoint on Sunday. In four career starts here, Montoya hasn’t finished better than 19th and over the last two years he has finishes of 37th and 31st.

Kurt Busch - Busch is off to a great start this season, but I expect him to take a hit in the points this week. He finished 3rd here in 2005, but since then he has posted finishes of: 16th, 26th, 38, 23rd, and 35th. He will look like a good pick on Friday (his average start here is 5.2), but don’t say I didn’t warn you when he disappoints you on Sunday.

David Ragan - Roush is always a good way to go with picks at “cookie cutter” tracks, but stay away from Ragan this week. He had a top ten here in 2008 but his other three starts at Vegas have ended in finishes of 23rd or worse.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger is 4th in points, but don’t expect him to stay that high after this weekend. In two career starts at Las Vegas, A.J. has finishes of 25th and 33rd. His average finish on similar tracks is 18.8.

After this race, the boys will have an off-weekend until they hit Bristol the following week. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation. I’m a member, why aren’t you?

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500

Sunday will be the final time a race will be held at Phoenix International Raceway before its repaving and reconfiguration, which will begin after the Subway Fresh Fit 500 is completed. When the Sprint Cup series comes back here in November, drivers will find a wider front-stretch and a reconfigured dogleg turn. PIR President has stated, ”We are thrilled with the design. … This race has always been pretty pivotal in crowning our Sprint Cup champion, and in this case, the notes from the previous races are not going to be worth much. It’s going to be a whole new game.” On Sunday, though, you can expect familiar faces up front.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…Last November, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson were fighting for the championship with just two races to go. Carl Edwards started from the pole and stayed in the top five all day, getting the win and ending his 70-race winless streak. Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top five. Hamlin led the most laps that day but had to pit late for fuel, as did Juan Montoya when he was running 2nd.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Forget about last week. If you escaped Daytona with a solid week, good job. If most of your drivers wrecked, don’t worry: there’s a lot of people in that boat. Onto the next week. At Phoenix, make sure you pay attention to average practice speeds as well as who gets the pole. Only one driver outside of the top ten in average practice speeds last fall at Phoenix finished worse than 15th and two of the last three pole winners here have gone on to win the race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - There is no reason that “The Champ” shouldn’t be near the top of everyone’s lists going into the race this weekend; Jimmie is the best driver here and this is his best track (statistically). Johnson has led more laps here than anyone in the series–including Mark Martin (who has raced in 13 more races at Phoenix than his Hendrick Motorsports teammate). JJ has an astounding average finish of 4.93 here (over 15 career races) with a worst finish of 15th. Surprisingly, “Five-Time” has only one pole win here, though. You can still expect Chad Knaus to give Jimmie a good car, though. Since 2006, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 5th at Phoenix.

2. Carl Edwards - The Cup Series points leader is the most recent winner of this track and in the past three points-paying races (going back to last year) his finishes have been 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Over the past two years at Phoenix (four races), Cousin Carl hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has amassed three top tens. In his career, Edwards has 10 top tens in 13 races and an average finish of 11.9. In 2007, he won the pole and led 87 of the first 125 laps before his engine blew, giving him a finish of 42nd. There is no reason we shouldn’t see the 99 car up front again this week.

3. Mark Martin - First off, can you believe Mark came back from three laps down last week to get a top ten at Daytona? Me neither. Phoenix has been Martin’s second-best track over his career and he has finished outside of the top twenty just once in his 28 starts here (a DNF in 1988–his first start here). Since coming to Hendrick, Mark has had finishes of 1st, 4th, 4th, and 8th. Since 1989, Martin has completed all but one lap at Phoenix.

4. Jeff Gordon - Hendrick Motorsports teams are just pretty good at this flat track. You won’t see Gordon leading a bunch of laps (he has led in just one of his past seven starts here), but he has shown that he can get a solid finish. Gordon has 21 total top 20’s in his 24 career starts here, and 17 of those have been top tens. He also has the best average start in the Cup series at Phoenix.

5. Denny Hamlin - I’ve learned to keep Hamlin in my mind whenever the boys race at a flat track, and Phoenix has been a good track for him. As I stated before, Hamlin led the most laps last time at Phoenix but didn’t get the win because he had to hit pit road late so he didn’t run out of fuel. Denny has started eleven races in the Sprint Cup series at Phoenix, and has finished worse than 16th only twice. He has never won here, but Hamlin has finished 3rd four times at this track.

6. Kurt Busch - He didn’t accomplish the trifecta at Daytona, but Kurt Busch still left with a top five and a fourth-place points position. In his last five Phoenix starts, Busch has led laps in four of them (and earned top tens in those four races as well). He has only nine top tens in sixteen career starts here, but since 2008 it seems like Busch has figured this track out more and become more consistent. If he starts worse than 15th, though, I wouldn’t pick him (only one top ten in those five starts).

7. Jeff Burton - Burton’s last two finishes at Phoenix have been sub-par (19th and 25th), but he has still been very consistent here: since 1996 he has finished outside of the top 20 only once. Since 1998, Burton has finished on the lead lap in every races. You won’t see the 31 near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, but that hasn’t mattered over the years. With two wins at the track, Jeff definitely knows how to maneuver around this three-turn flat track.

8. Juan Montoya - If it wasn’t for a shortage of fuel, Montoya would be on a three-race streak of top tens at Phoenix. Last fall, while running 2nd, the 42 car had to pit under green to avoid running out of fuel. He ended up finishing a disappointing 16th. Juan has ended up in the top 20 in 75% of his starts at Phoenix International Raceway. In the April race in 2010, Montoya led 104 laps and came away with a top five.

9. Joey Logano - Sliced Bread’s first two starts at Phoenix yielded disappointing finishes (21st in both), but the young gun has gotten used to this track since then. Last year he got his first top ten here after starting sixth, and last fall Logano ended up 3rd. He has never led a lap here, but after this Sunday that could change.

10. Kyle Busch - Over the past four races at Phoenix, Rowdy has the third-best driver rating (behind Johnson and Martin). However, like at Daytona last week, he hasn’t been able to get the finish in those races. He hasn’t been terrible, but the finishes don’t match the driver rating. In the past four races, Kyle has finished 13th, 8th, 12th, and 17th. He has just two finishes outside of the top 20 in twelve career starts. Busch has won here before but usually finishes between 7th and 13th.

11. Greg Biffle - The Biff has been surprisingly consistent over the fast few years at Phoenix. He finihed 4th in the fall race last year after his sub-par 22nd in the spring race. Over the past eight races here, Biffle hasn’t finished worse than that 22nd last spring and has four top tens in those eight starts. He won’t run up front all day (he’s only led at least one lap in one of the past nine races) but you should expect him to finish on the lead lap.

12. Tony Stewart -Statistically, “Smoke” is the fifth-best driver at flat tracks with average finish of 11.4. At Phoenix, it isn’t much different as he has an average finish of 12th in 18 career starts. In his first start here, he won after starting 11th and went on to record seven top tens in the next eleven races at Phoenix. I will tell you to watch Stewart closely, though: his previous three finishes have been 17th, 23rd, and 25th.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex is going to live up to the type that everyone has placed on him this year, he’s going to need to do good at his best tracks. Phoenix is his third best track statistically with an average finish of 15.6 in ten career starts. In the November 2008 race, he finished dead last after an overheating problem, but other than that his worst finish has been 22nd. While driving the #1 Chevy for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Truex grabbed the pole and earned a 5th place finish in the November 2009 race at PIR.

14. Kevin Harvick - Happy probably isn’t too happy after blowing an engine at Daytona, but he should be able to get a decent finish this week. In sixteen career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins and seven top tens. During his magical 2010 season, he finished 13th in the April race and 6th in the November race while challenging for the championship. He usually does better in the fall race here, so make sure you watch him in practice this weekend.

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If Junior is going to prove to people that he can actually drive a car, he needs to start getting the finishes. At Daytona last week, he was near the front before having to pit and go to the back of the pack. He was then caught up in a wreck, ruining his chances of winning. Little E has won at Phoenix twice before, and last year he finished 12th and 14th. He’s usually hit-or-miss at Phoenix, so be careful if you are going to pick him. He has ten top 20s in 17 starts here, but five finishes of 30th or worse as well.

Underdogs Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose has been decent at Phoenix his whole career. He has two 11th place finishes to his credit, and hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in five starts here. He drives the 9 car for Richard Petty Motorsports, which is the same car that Aric Almirola qualified 9th with in the November race here at Phoenix.

David Reutimann - Reutty has two top tens at this track, and both came in 2009. His average finish here is 19.9, so don’t expect a top ten, but if he can get a good starting spot and find the right setup for the race, he could be a surprise come Sunday.

A.J. Allmendinger - Like Ambrose, Allmendinger has been very consistent at Phoenix. He has been pretty good at qualifying, too, starting 2nd and 1st in his past two starts here. In five starts at PIR, The Dinger has four finishes between 13th and 18th.

Bobby Labonte - He started off the first season with his new team with a great showing at Daytona, and he could get a solid top 20 this weekend with them. Labonte ended up 20th last year while driving the 09 car for Phoenix Racing and back when he drove for Petty has just one finish outside of the top twenty in six starts. With–arguably–his best equipment in years, Bobby could surprise people this year.

Those To Avoid Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Regan Smith - He proved me wrong last week in Daytona, but you won’t find him on my rosters this week, either. In five starts at Phoenix, Smith hasn’t finished better than 23rd, but he has started in the top ten twice.

Paul Menard - If you are looking for a driver that will give you a mid-20’s finish, go with Menard, but don’t expect much more. He has eight starts at Phoenix International Raceway, but hasn’t finished better than 21st–or worse than 29th.

Brian Vickers - His return to racing didn’t go as well as he planned, and I don’t expect Vickers’ season to suddenly turn around at Phoenix. His past four starts here have produced three finishes of 38th or worse, and while he has one top fife here (in 2005), that is also his only top ten.

Brad Keselowski - BK has a 16th-place finish to his credit at Phoenix, but his other two starts ended in 42nd and 37th-place finishes. His 42nd came in last year’s fall race, where he hit the wall early and couldn’t recover.

Fantasy NASCAR 2011: Countdown to Daytona

For NASCAR fantasy game players preparing to map season-long strategies and draft their teams, one driver has been the consensus number one over-all pick for the last three seasons. Jimmie Johnson is, and has been, the man.

Johnson and his no. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet have won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup championships. The 2011 decision was still in doubt entering the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were in with a chance entering the race. But Johnson closed it out for his fifth consecutive series win.

During that five year run, Johnson has won 35 times and has an average finish of 10.8. The next closest driver in wins is Kyle Busch with 17. Johnson is number one in poles, top fives, top tens and average starting position.

Those stats are official. Unofficially, the no. 48 team has lead NASCAR in stability as well. No team has undergone fewer changes than crew chief Chad Knaus’operation. At least that was true until three races from the end of 2010, Knaus swapped his pit crew with that of the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsport car driven by Jeff Gordon.

That change was the first significant shakeup for the Johnson-Knaus team in five years. The move smacked of panic at the time and may signal that the championship run is running out of steam. Still, Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy points machine.

Jeff Gordon ran a solid, consistent, second statistically to Johnson during the 2010 season. His NASCAR Loop Datadriver rating - a combination of 13 key stat groups taken from NASCAR’s on-track scoring loops - was second to Johnson all year and Gordon’s average finish over the last five seasons is behind only to Johnson as well. Jeff Gordon’s problem is, he just doesn’t win anymore. His 11 top fives and 17 top tens were solid. Zero wins, four DNFs and one pole were a disappointment.

With three races to go, Gordon was out of contention for the Cup championship when his pit crew was given to teammate Johnson. The move did not improve the no. 24 team. More shakeups are ahead. There was a time when Jeff Gordon was always a good pick at any track. Things have changed.

The big challenge to Johnson came from Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin. With 8 wins, 2 poles, 14 top fives and 18 top tens, Hamlin overcame early season knee surgery to give Johnson a real challenge. Hamlin is nearly unbeatable in the state of Virginia, winning three of the four races at Martinsville and Richmond. He swept the pair at super fast Texas Motor Speedway too. And Pocono should be named after him.

Kevin Harvick will have a new sponsor for 2011. Budweiser will take the place of Shell Gasolines on the no. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy. Harvick had a remarkably consistent 2010 season. His 26 top tens were tops in the series and his average finish - 8.7 - was best by far. Three wins and 2 poles along with 16 top fives made Harvick a good fantasy pick in 2010. Two of Harvick’s wins came on restrictor plate tracks at Daytona and Talladega and over the last five years he has more wins and a better average finish than anyone on plate tracks.

Other than the sponsor switch, RCRis leaving Harvick’s team alone and that bodes well for 2011.

Carl Edwards almost single handedly saved 2010 for Ford Racing. Three Roush Racing Fords qualified for the Chase to the Sprint Cup and Edwards won the last two races of 2010. If you believe in momentum, the no. 99had it going into the off-season. The Bob Osborneled team has been very stable and Roush seems to have caught up with the COT programs of the Chevy and Toyota teams now. Carl Edwards is set for a return to eight or so wins and his best shot at a Sprint Cup yet.

JGR’s Kyle Busch will score big in 2011. Recently married and unable to contend for multiple NASCAR championships due to rule changes, Kyle is a top six pick in any one’s fantasy draft and is very tough at the high banked speedways like LasVegas, Charlotte and Atlanta.

Jamie McMurraywon three races and grabbed four poles in 2010 and was season’s biggest surprise. McMurray is very good on plate tracks and a great pick for either road course.

One breakout driver for 2011should be Joey Logano. Logano came on strong late in 2010 with one pole, seven top fives and 16 top tens.

Watch Kasey Kahne. Kahne has a one year contract to drive for Red Bull Racing in 2011 as he waits for his 2012 Hendrick Motorsportsseat. This is the best equipment Kahne has had in years and RedBull is capable of winning poles and races. I see great value in having Kasey Kahne on your roster.

Photo credit - Getty Images for NASCAR

2009 OPer Awards: Best NASCAR Driver

No, Jimmie Johnson is not our pick as best NASCAR driver in 2009.

There are a ton of awards Johnson could legitimately grab. Hell he already has. But not this OPeR. Not this year.

Kyle Busch was NASCAR’s best driver in 2009.

20 wins combined in the top three NASCAR touring series did the trick. It didn’t hurt that The Shrub was following up a 22 win 2008 season either. Those two years could put Kyle Busch in the NASCAR Hall of Fame.

Rowdy didn’t make the Chase to the Sprint Cup. But won another OPeR. That should help. Shouldn’t it?

NASCAR Wives and Girlfriends Photos

We find the pics where we can because we know you want to see them. Click the thumbnail for a full sized photo.

Photo credit; Icon Sports Media, Inc

2008 OPeR Award: Worst Post Race Interview

Every few weeks ON PIT ROW, the fact that the driver who has won more Sprint Cup races the last four years and now, three straight Cup Series championships, just doesn’t get the respect he deserves.

Jimmie Johnson deserves better. But hell, we’ve even been spelling his name incorrectly for the last three years. Who are we to change now?

J J gets the OPeR for bad post race interviews for the same reason that he probably gets slighted in the respect department. He’s boring. If he’d stop winning and get pissed off once in a while, he’d get noticed more. Well, maybe.

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