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Fantasy NASCAR 2011: Countdown to Daytona

For NASCAR fantasy game players preparing to map season-long strategies and draft their teams, one driver has been the consensus number one over-all pick for the last three seasons. Jimmie Johnson is, and has been, the man.

Johnson and his no. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet have won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup championships. The 2011 decision was still in doubt entering the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were in with a chance entering the race. But Johnson closed it out for his fifth consecutive series win.

During that five year run, Johnson has won 35 times and has an average finish of 10.8. The next closest driver in wins is Kyle Busch with 17. Johnson is number one in poles, top fives, top tens and average starting position.

Those stats are official. Unofficially, the no. 48 team has lead NASCAR in stability as well. No team has undergone fewer changes than crew chief Chad Knaus’operation. At least that was true until three races from the end of 2010, Knaus swapped his pit crew with that of the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsport car driven by Jeff Gordon.

That change was the first significant shakeup for the Johnson-Knaus team in five years. The move smacked of panic at the time and may signal that the championship run is running out of steam. Still, Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy points machine.

Jeff Gordon ran a solid, consistent, second statistically to Johnson during the 2010 season. His NASCAR Loop Datadriver rating - a combination of 13 key stat groups taken from NASCAR’s on-track scoring loops - was second to Johnson all year and Gordon’s average finish over the last five seasons is behind only to Johnson as well. Jeff Gordon’s problem is, he just doesn’t win anymore. His 11 top fives and 17 top tens were solid. Zero wins, four DNFs and one pole were a disappointment.

With three races to go, Gordon was out of contention for the Cup championship when his pit crew was given to teammate Johnson. The move did not improve the no. 24 team. More shakeups are ahead. There was a time when Jeff Gordon was always a good pick at any track. Things have changed.

The big challenge to Johnson came from Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin. With 8 wins, 2 poles, 14 top fives and 18 top tens, Hamlin overcame early season knee surgery to give Johnson a real challenge. Hamlin is nearly unbeatable in the state of Virginia, winning three of the four races at Martinsville and Richmond. He swept the pair at super fast Texas Motor Speedway too. And Pocono should be named after him.

Kevin Harvick will have a new sponsor for 2011. Budweiser will take the place of Shell Gasolines on the no. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy. Harvick had a remarkably consistent 2010 season. His 26 top tens were tops in the series and his average finish - 8.7 - was best by far. Three wins and 2 poles along with 16 top fives made Harvick a good fantasy pick in 2010. Two of Harvick’s wins came on restrictor plate tracks at Daytona and Talladega and over the last five years he has more wins and a better average finish than anyone on plate tracks.

Other than the sponsor switch, RCRis leaving Harvick’s team alone and that bodes well for 2011.

Carl Edwards almost single handedly saved 2010 for Ford Racing. Three Roush Racing Fords qualified for the Chase to the Sprint Cup and Edwards won the last two races of 2010. If you believe in momentum, the no. 99had it going into the off-season. The Bob Osborneled team has been very stable and Roush seems to have caught up with the COT programs of the Chevy and Toyota teams now. Carl Edwards is set for a return to eight or so wins and his best shot at a Sprint Cup yet.

JGR’s Kyle Busch will score big in 2011. Recently married and unable to contend for multiple NASCAR championships due to rule changes, Kyle is a top six pick in any one’s fantasy draft and is very tough at the high banked speedways like LasVegas, Charlotte and Atlanta.

Jamie McMurraywon three races and grabbed four poles in 2010 and was season’s biggest surprise. McMurray is very good on plate tracks and a great pick for either road course.

One breakout driver for 2011should be Joey Logano. Logano came on strong late in 2010 with one pole, seven top fives and 16 top tens.

Watch Kasey Kahne. Kahne has a one year contract to drive for Red Bull Racing in 2011 as he waits for his 2012 Hendrick Motorsportsseat. This is the best equipment Kahne has had in years and RedBull is capable of winning poles and races. I see great value in having Kasey Kahne on your roster.

Photo credit - Getty Images for NASCAR

Wrapped up, but not wiped out

OK, so we’re one episode away from conclusion of the 2008 Jimmie Johnson show. All the Hendrick gear in my possession aside, even I’m bored with this. Nothing against JJ, Chad or crew, but even my 16 year old Baby Ruth T-shirt is fresher than this act. And it doesn’t even fit any more. While their accomplishments the past three seasons are nothing short of miraculous, and like it or not deserve all the press and praise, there’s one thing that comes to mind that a wise old man once told me.

“Luke, you just can’t eat a steak every night for life and not expect it to get old and lose it’s luster. Sometimes you just need a good chicken dinner to liven it up.”

While a bit off-beat, it rings true for many situations. Including this one. As remarkable of an accomplishment as this will be, barring something to knock Jimmie to a 37th or worse finish, fans are looking to the menu for some chicken.

They have shown it with empty seats at places which tend to sell out, or close to it. They have shown it through television ratings, as well as related purchases. While the current economic times play a part, those didn’t really enter the picture until mid to late summer where it would have a huge impact.

Many curse the Chase, although Johnson would still be leading by 56 points. That aside, he would only be heading to Championship #1, not #3.

I read an interesting article yesterday, with some interesting concepts on how bad it is and how it could be fixed. Problem being: “One must recognize, and accept, that there is a problem before work can begin to fix it.” — Luke

A few decent ideas have been thrown around, for sure.

So while we witnessed the last to final episode of the 2008 season of the Jimmie and Chad show, it wasn’t all about the Chasers.

Jamie McMurray continued his romp and stomp with another Top-5 and 3rd place finish. Kurt Busch, hanging it all out, finished second, with David Ragan closing out the Top-10. 30% of your Top-10 were not in the Chase. Surprise, surprise.

With fond memories (thank you Truck Series) from Phoenix in our rear view mirrors, we’re pulling into Homestead with one thing on everyone’s mind. Vacation. Yes, you read that right. Time off. No tracks, no press, no worries. At least for a few days anyway, as work for 2009 has already begun. Think I’m kidding? Kurt Busch and company tested this past Tuesday at the new half-mile “Little Rock”, at Rockingham, getting ready for 2009. No joke.

Homestead is, well, it’s a track. Much like many others composing the meat of the current schedule. It’s a 1.5 mile “cookie-cutter”, and it’s owned by ISC. There you have it. In an effort to improve racing they put in graduated banking, seeing action for the first time in 2003. Las Vegas did the same thing just 2 years ago, in fact. While the show improved, it’s about like watching Johnson hoist the Cup this Sunday.

The cookie track that tried, tried, and tried again has been the “House of Roush” for years. In fact, Greg Biffle is 3 for 4 in the past 4 years here, only losing out to Matt Kenseth in the 2007 showdown when he beat Kurt Busch to the line by .852 seconds. Biffle wound up 13th.

If one had to put some non-Chasers in the Top-10, you can’t help but pick Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. With momentum and history coming into play, they’re odds on favorites to crack the Top-10.

Kurt Busch again? I’m not so sure. Top-20, maybe, but he’s pulling an average just inside the Top-30 for tracks of this nature this year. Needless to say, when they’re on, they’re on. When they’re off, they’re really off. There hasn’t really been an in between at this type of track for the #2 Dodge.

Looking for that ever elusive third possibility, I’ll throw you two and you can take your pick. It’s not out of the question that it could be Kasey Kahne or Travis Kvapil. Yes, I said Travis Kvapil.

Come back next week for the final wrap up on what was the non-Chase 2008.

Roush Fenway Fords Enjoy November Sun in Homestead

While only winning the championship in 2004, the Roush Fenway Fords are dominant at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Greg Biffle won this race three years running and Matt Kenseth capped off the season one year ago with a win. To add to the fun for the Cat in the Hat, Carl Edwards has a very good record here and David Ragan has a top 10 in his first start here last year. For Roush, those are good odds.

The championship is obviously the big story at Homestead, but every year the margin of victory is getting larger. From the incredible drama of Kurt Busch’s 2004 season to Tony Stewart’s and Jimmie Johnson’s solid if unspectacular runs in the years following, the championship chase is still must-watch television and the redesigned Homestead track deserves a lot of the credit. This year almost certainly promises to see Johnson do what only Cale Yarborough has done in NASCAR’s top series unless something freakish happens to the normally unflappable #48 team.

Paging David Gilliland, remember where your engines come from… anyway, lets get a look at the numbers.

The winners:
2007 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Greg Biffle
2005 – Greg Biffle
2004 – Greg Biffle

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 7th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 9th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 15th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

Let’s see, let me find a Roush Fenway driver that has had the best season this and won on similar 1.5 mile tracks… oh yeah, if you’re not anticipating Carl Edwards leading nearly every lap and winning this thing Sunday night, I’ll take whatever odds there are for the race. Aside from Edwards, Biffle does have a track record of winning here and could easily do it again.

The two sleepers I’ve pegged for this race are Ragan and Jamie McMurray. Both drivers have performed admirably in the final stretch of the year. The season finale always produces surprises, it should be interesting to see what happens this year. Among the one-off entrants are Brad Keselowski and Mark Martin, and the end of A.J. Allmendinger’s run in the #10.

Finally, it’s been a pleasure to write this weekly column for On Pit Row. I want to thank Steve and Charlie for all of their hard work and I look forward to continuing my contributions to the Bench Racing blog. Journey provides the season finale with the classic karaoke song Don’t Stop Believin’. YouTube is your friend. This won’t be like the Sopranos finale when the music just stops before the

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Thank You Jamie. CC: Cousin Carl

We’ll start this week with a quote from another famous Champion by the name of The Nature Boy, “Wooooooooooo!”

I’d like to thank Jamie Mac for so graciously contributing to the bills in the infield, with one of the strongest runs in his tenure at Roush. He was there all… damn… day. Hammer down, and had some of them crazy Chasers not played the gas card he’d have laid the smack down in Texas. Bottoms up, to that one.

I’d also like to thank ol’ Cousin Carl, for his performance on Saturday. He too helped offset a little adventure of full speed adrenaline at 180mph for 4 laps around the track. Courtesy of Team Texas, of course. Wow.

I’d also like to thank Ron Hornaday. Not only will my laptop carry a high resale value for just being a kick ass Mac, but now the (soon to be, you betcha) back to back Truck Champion adorns it for all to see. As Terrible Terry Tate once said, “Nice play baby!”

Martin Truex held himself in the Top-10 by the end, 6 places behind his starting spot.

Rounding out the Top-10 was none other than Beak. Congrats Reut, ya earned it.

So now we’re moving from Texas Twisters to those Arizona Rattlers out on the hill. Well, actually last weekend it was earthquakes (no kidding, folks), but that’s beside the point.

Looking back, Mark Martin and Martin Truex both ran strong here last spring. They were the only two in the Top-10 who are not currently in the Chase. And since we’re covering the other 31 drivers out there, we’ll carry on.

Jamie McMurray wasn’t too far out of the Top-10, and considering his current momentum he could sneak it in. That team has been pulling it together, and the results are finally showing. It was an interesting read from Marty Smith on this one earlier, check it out if you get a chance.

There were a few other surprises out there last spring as well. Juan Pablo, Bobby Labonte, and David Gilliland were all in the Top-16, Reutimann was 18th as well.

If you want momentum, bring in David Ragan, Jamie Mac and David Reutimann. From there, who knows. It’s Phoenix. Even being a quarter mile longer than Richmond, for some reason it’s always reminded me of Richmond after being flipped around to make the front the back and the back the front. Although the comparisons end there. Not to mention it’s a 500, but measured in kilometers? Never made a lick of sense to me, but hey, whatever. Drop the flag, get it on, and let’s go racing.

Oh and one more thing, be sure to thank your Office Linebacker as the season draws to a close.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

This Ain’t Run’s House…

This ain’t Run’s House, not does it belong to anyone else either. Other than the Thunder Lounge, of course, but we’re talking on the track. Let’s check Atlanta’s top non-chasers, then move onto bigger and better things.

Well neither Vickers nor Bobby Labonte did any spoiling at Atlanta last weekend. Jamie McMurray sure did though, with a nice 7th place run, and right in front of teammate David Ragan. Crossing the stripe right before Jamie was Kurt Busch. Both he and Jamie getting a little redemption from Martinsville.

While we leave the warm-up for this weekend behind, we’re not going to Run’s house.

Actually, we’re not going to anyone’s house. Texas isn’t like Charlotte, where you could call it Johnson’s house. Texas has seen very few repeat winners since coming onto the scene in 1997. In other words, the checkers are fair game for all.

The big winner in Texas sure ain’t the Cowboys. Ever see that clip after last season on YouTube? If you have, you know what we’re talking about.

One big winner has to be Babe’s Chicken. If you make it down here, find ‘em.

Oh, that’s right… we’re talking racing.

So here we come to Texas, and wondering which non-chaser has the opportunity to make a showing.

As much as I hate to say it, those that ran well at Atlanta have a good shot at doing so again. While differences exist between the two, it’s a good possibility for more of the same. If you’re betting against Johnson, it’s going to take bad luck to slow his roll anytime soon.

So who can swipe some points this week? Jamie Mac’s a good bet. Other than that it’s Texas, and you’d better know when to run.

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

The War Drums are Beating…

After the show last Sunday at Martinsville, the war drums have begun beating. Well, louder anyway. Can anyone stop Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the rest of the #48 team from streaking for a 3rd Championship in a row? Not to discount the effort, but it’s kind of like listening to the same song being played on the radio 100 times a day. Sure it was a treat in the beginning, but it gets old, and fast.

Apparently the television audience thought the same again this week, as the ratings were again lower than last year. Even though Jimmie Johnson pulled it out, with a mid to late stinking of the show, it was still a wail of a show. Bump bump… Coming through… and that was all day, including Saturday. But we’re not here to discuss that wacky Camping World Truck Series race. Not at all. What we’re here to discuss are the other 31 cars that were on the track at Martinsville, and will be out in full force at HotLanta this weekend.

Both Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurray had their loans at the Luck Bank called due. Honestly, I have no idea what happened to Kurt. He was there at the start, then he wasn’t. Finally caught that he was in the garage, thanks to the ol’ 454.000Mhz, but I missed out on the what.

Then Jamie got bit by the busted rear axle bug while running very strong inside the Top-10, pushing the Top-5. But hey, I have good news, and it has absolutely nothing to do with car insurance. Looks like a reunion with your buddy Donnie Wingo is in the cards. Now go drive the wheel off that thing.

Then there was Casey Mears. Casey put the hammer down, slammed that chrome horn, and brought it home with a very solid 6th place finish. Not bad at all there, “New Pop”, even though 3 of the Top-5 went to your teammates it was still one impressive run.

So now we’re rolling a little further south, down for some hot, fast laps at Atlanta. Or as we sometimes lovingly refer to it in the depths of Thunder Lounge, the fall test session for Texas.

So who are we going to get into the Top-10 here, that isn’t trying to dethrone Johnsonpalooza?

Roush cars typically run well here, and Jamie McMurray is out for justice. Speaking of being out for justice, look for Brian Vickers to make a play and possibly be in the Top-10 at the end of the day. After getting a massive switch to the butt from NASCAR yesterday, that whole organization is out to prove they’re legit.

Finally, my third selection for the upcoming weekend. I’m going to throw a bone to none other than the 2000 Winston Cup Champion, Bobby Labonte. He knows what he needs at this track, and his resume here is quite impressive and includes 6 wins. For this type of track, he’s rolling with 17 wins, 78 Top-5’s, and 119 Top-10’s. Even the Petty slump can’t keep his bite out of Georgia.

Dark horse? Throw the love to Beak. David Reutimann was pretty good at Martinsville. Until late trouble bit him, he’d been in the Top-10 all day.

Speaking of things MWR and Martinsville. I caught Mikey coming out the back of the Toyota Fan Experience by chance. A little boy all decked out in Mikey gear (hat, jacket and all) that couldn’t have been more then 7 saw him too. He took off on a dead beat run towards the golf cart as they began to pull away. As pressed for time as these drivers are these days, Mikey made them stop the cart, and he took the time to sign the boys jacket and give him a quick squeeze. The way that kids face lit up was priceless. While it’s not just Michael, this is a true representation of our sport at heart. Good people, who just happen to be blessed with making a living doing something most of us can only dream of.

So now that the heartburn is clearing up from all those famous Martinsville hotdogs, just in time to hit the barbecue in Texas next week, we find ourselves in anxious wait to see whether or not Goodyear brings the right tire to Atlanta this time, and whether or not we’ll have a show. Just in case the tire is off a bit, bring something better to the Lone Star state, okay guys?

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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