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Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Martinsville Speedway

So thanks to some shrewd picking last week – a fleet of Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Burton – my picks from last week finished 6th, 4th, and won at Charlotte. Picking three guys just isn’t fair, especially when my “dark horse” won eight races earlier this year, my “sleeper” is 2nd in points, and my lead pick has been the same for the past couple weeks. No more. From now on, I only pick one driver a week.

We head to Martinsville Speedway to kick off the second half of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Martinsville is the stock car racing equivalent of taking the Monaco Formula 1 track’s famous hairpin 1,000 times. It’s a punishing track for both man and machine. Only the best can say they’ve conquered Martinsville – and even some of NASCAR’s all-time greatest short track drivers, such as Terry Labonte, have never won at the bullring.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Martinsville:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at Martinsville since April 14, 2002. He hasn’t finished outside the top 5 at Martinsville since April 10, 2005. He hasn’t led less than 100 laps at a Martinsville race since October 23, 2005. To top it off, his average finish here is 6.0; for drivers with 10 or more career starts here, that’s second only to Lee Petty‘s 5.5. You get the picture.

2. Jeff Burton: Burton hasn’t won here since 1997, but he’s led laps in both of the series’ last visits to Martinsville. He finished 6th and 12th here last year, and he was 3rd earlier this season.

3. Greg Biffle: True, Da Biff’s never crashed out at Martinsville, or suffered brake failure. But his only top 10 in 11 starts here was in this race last year, when he finished 7th. Biffle’s as risky a pick as it gets this week, unless he has another flash of luck.

4. Carl Edwards: Carl’s got no momentum after the past two weeks, has never led a lap at Martinsville, and has a pedestrian average finish of 19.1 here. True, he hasn’t failed to finish on the lead lap since 2005, but just completing all 500 circuits on a regular basis here isn’t enough to make you a smart pick. Edwards’ best finish at Martinsville is 9th.

5. Clint Bowyer: The good news: In five starts and 2506 possible laps here, Clint has only failed to complete four circuits. The bad: Like Edwards, he’s never led a lap, his best finish here is 9th, and that’s not enough to make him anything more than a backup pick.

6. Kevin Harvick: Anyone remember the time Happy got suspended here after a Truck Series incident? That was pretty cool.

All kidding aside, Harvick can be solid, if not spectacular, at Martinsville when he doesn’t run into issues. It’s been four years since he led here – when he led 104 laps and finished 8th – but in his last six starts here, five of them have seen the No. 29 come home 15th or better. Slightly better than Edwards and Bowyer, for sure, but his performance still leaves a little to be desired.

7. Tony Stewart: In his last six attempts at Martinsville, Stewart’s worst finish is 13th. In that same timeframe, he has four top 5s and a win, which occurred in spring 2006. Of Chase drivers, Stewart’s average finish of 11.9 in 19 career starts is fourth best. After two straight weeks of decent runs and double-digit laps led, Stewart has the momentum to capitalize this weekend.

8. Jeff Gordon: Though eclipsed by protégé Johnson, Gordon’s average finish of 7.0 in 31 starts isn’t half bad. Gordon knows how to get around the track – his worst starting spot was 25th, way back in 1993, and he has seven poles, including poles in the last two races here. He also hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since October 2002, and has led at least one lap at the track every year since 2001, inclusive. Given his below-average season this year, Gordon may be a steal for this weekend.

9. Kyle Busch: Despite a poor finish here earlier this year, Shrub’s actually been relatively decent at Martinsville throughout his career. He led laps in both races last year, finishing 4th in each event. His average finish of 16.7 is brought down by an overheating issue in 2005 and an early spin this past spring. Busch’s past record here, combined with momentum from a 4th place finish last week, hint at a solid run this weekend.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug hasn’t failed to complete a lap here since October 2004, when he crashed late in the race. He’s also led laps in each of the past three Martinsville events, leading a race-high 146 earlier this year on the way to a 6th place finish. It also helps that Hendrick Motorsports usually dominates at Martinsville. Even without momentum after a string of poor runs, Junior should be a factor to win.

11. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth rarely leads laps at Martinsville (23 total since 2004), and rarely scores the sort of top finishes one would hope for here (two top 10s since 2004), but he’s also only failed to complete 11 laps since 2002. Usually Kenseth finishes inside the top 20 here (11 out of 17 starts), but there are definitely better drivers out there.

12. Denny Hamlin: With an average finish of 9.5 in six starts, it’s obvious that Hamlin’s good at Martinsville. Only once has he finished outside the top 10. Subtract that accident-induced 37th place finish from his records, and his average finish is a solid 4.0. Given the past few weeks, Denny may be a bit of a shaky pick, but if he drives up to his track record, he could definitely surprise a few people.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Picking Johnson is too easy. Despite his recent struggles, Gordon’s also almost too certain to do well this weekend. Even suggesting Denny Hamlin feels like a cop-out.

I’m going to go with the interesting pick and say that Kyle Busch will win this weekend. Busch has reset his focus on winning as many races as possible this year over NASCAR’s big three series. Last weekend’s Nationwide Series win and 4th place in Sprint Cup show that he still has the necessary fire inside to win. If his team has found its stride again as well, they could pull off the upset this weekend.

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Martinsville Looks Dangerous for Roush-Fenway Duo

Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have had plenty of success on short tracks. But not at Martinsville Speedway. The two Roush-Fenway drivers have little margin for error left if they plan to push Jimmy Johnson and, now, Jeff Burton for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship.

Martinsville, being the half-mile bullring that it is, has a bit of a wild-card flavor when it comes to championship considerations. Accidents happen, and they can happen to anybody here. But the trends favor Burton and Johnson to miss the wrecks and Edwards and Biffle, not so much.

Of all the Chase contenders in 2008, Biffle has the lowest Loop Data Driver Rating for Martinsville – 64.4 – and Edwards is next at 72.4. Biffle has just one top ten in 11 attempts and an Ave Finish of 23.6. Carl has one top ten and averages a bit worse than 19th place. For comparison, Jimmy Johnson has nine top fives, 12 top tens and an Ave Finish of 6.0. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 121.2.

For either Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle to leave Virginia this weekend and still be considered serious contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup, a reversal of fortune must occur. For them, Jimmy Johnson or both.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Lowe’s Motor Speedway

Thank you very much, Carl Edwards, for “really trying to screw up everyone’s day” at Talladega last week, because you kinda screwed up mine too. My lead pick, Jimmie Johnson, wound up 9th (the worst any of my lead picks has finished in the Chase). Sleeper Kevin Harvick wound up 20th, and dark horse Greg Biffle wound up 24th, both victims of Edwards’ aggressive bump drafting. (At least I didn’t pick Jeff Gordon or Denny Hamlin. Yikes!)

Thankfully, without the high speeds, restrictor plates, and unpredictability of Talladega, Charlotte is a much easier track to pick drivers on. Charlotte is built to the same specifications as Atlanta and Texas, and the three tracks combine for seven races per year (counting the All-Star event). For that reason, Charlotte’s a lot easier to predict than Talladega, and hopefully I’ll have better luck this week.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Charlotte:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has five wins and 11 top 10s in 14 races at Charlotte. He’s got three wins and six top 10s in the last six races this year. If those two factoids aren’t enough for you, the racetrack is named after Lowe’s, Johnson’s longtime sponsor. The No. 48 team always tries a little harder to win for their sponsor at Charlotte, and with Johnson as hot as he is, this weekend should be no exception.

2. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl lost all his momentum from the past couple months with his wreck at Talladega. Fortunately, Charlotte is one of his best tracks, with an average finish of 7.6 in seven starts, six of which were top 10 finishes. There should be no reason that Edwards’ team can’t rebound this weekend, but after last weekend, he’s not the most well-liked driver in the garage area.

3. Greg Biffle: With only four top 10s in 11 starts at Lowe’s, Biffle isn’t exactly a popular pick this weekend. However, of those four top 10s, two came in 2005, when the No. 16 was the hottest team in the garage, and one came in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, where he finished 2nd. If Biffle’s team stays as hot as it has been, another great run at Charlotte may happen.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s finished in the top 10 at Charlotte in 14 out of 29 starts, with wins in 1999 and 2001. Since joining Richard Childress Racing, his average finish is a stellar 8.0 in 8 starts at Charlotte. As for momentum, Burton hasn’t finished worse than 9th in the past 5 races.

5. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only decent finish at Charlotte was his 2nd in this race last year, finishing .579 seconds behind Jeff Gordon for the win. Excluding that race, Bowyer has never finished on the lead lap at Charlotte, and only led three laps in this race in 2006. Bowyer still has momentum from finishing 5th at Talladega last weekend, and they’ll have to cash it all in to have a chance this weekend.

6. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished 2nd and 8th here in 2001, but ever since it’s been a downward spiral. His average finish of 20.7 at Charlotte is second worst of the 12 Chase drivers. He’s only led two laps here, none since 2003, and has only finished on the lead lap three times since 2001. Harvick’s anger after last week is another factor: will driving angry help or hurt him? After his altercation with Carl Edwards, it may not help.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has plenty of momentum from last week’s (unfairly awarded… sorry) win at Talladega. His two-car team has secured sponsorship for next year, so his mind is a little clearer. Now Stewart heads to Charlotte, a track at which he’s led laps at every year of his career except 2004 and 2006. He hasn’t ripped off top 5s here since the early stages of his career, but he always runs up front for at least part of the race. It’s all about what time he gets there and if he can hold on.

8. Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five wins here in 31 starts, including one in this race last year. Since 2002, his average finish is 7.4 in races which he’s completed. Granted, Gordon didn’t finish either Charlotte race in 2005 or 2006, and crashed out of last year’s Coca-Cola 600. If he doesn’t have bad luck like he did last week at Talladega, Gordon should be a contender.

9. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led at least one lap in every Charlotte race from the 2006 Coca-Cola 600, inclusive. However, he hasn’t won at the track since the 2000 Coca-Cola 600, the first win of his Cup career. Eight top 10 finishes in 18 starts, nearly a 1 to 1 ratio of good finishes to bad, compares well with Burton and Gordon. Kenseth could surprise this weekend, if the No. 17 team doesn’t let last week’s disappointment at Talladega get to them.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In 18 starts, Junebug has nine top 10s but no wins at Charlotte. He hasn’t done too well in the Chase so far, finishing 5th, 24th, 13th, and 28th in four races. On the bright side, he led 79 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this year, eventually finishing 5th. This weekend could be a shot for Junior to rebound and put himself back in the title hunt.

11. Kyle Busch: Busch won the Nationwide race this weekend, but he’s had terrible luck on the Cup side of things for a few weeks now. He also has the worst average finish of any Chase driver at Charlotte, a paltry 23.3, with 3rd-place finishes in his past two starts the only bright spots. One never knows when a driver will break out of a slump, however, and this could be the weekend for Shrub.

12. Denny Hamlin: Forget the stats for a minute. Hamlin isn’t up to 100% health after a hard hit at Talladega. To expect him to run well this weekend after sitting out the Nationwide race isn’t a smart idea. He almost skipped the Cup race, too, for the sake of his health. He’ll probably ride around this weekend, but not do much in the way of anything spectacular.

So, who would I pick to win this weekend? I hate picking Jimmie Johnson again, but the numbers don’t lie. This is the No. 48 team’s territory, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Jeff Burton, given his recent string of good luck and solid track record here, may also have a chance to win. For a dark horse, I’d suggest Kyle Busch – it’s about time he breaks out of his recent slump, and Biffle’s surprise win at Loudon suggests that nothing is impossible.

Image Credit: Icon Sports Media

Can Kasey Kahne Upset the Chasers?

Jimmy Johnson has a grip on Lowes Motor Speedway and NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, Johnson has won 14 of the 75 I-track races, finished in the top five 37 times and been top ten 51 times.  He’s won five of his 14 starts at Lowe’s – leading all active drivers – and has eight top fives with eleven top tens. And Jimmy has the top Loop Data Driver Rating for the track as well – 116.5. That’s good. Real good.

But Johnson hasn’t won them all.  In fact Kasey Kahne is going for the three race 2008 sweep at Lowes. Kahne won the non-points all-star race and the Coca Cola 600 back in May. He holds the third best Loop DR – 98.4 – and is a seven time winner on intermediates the last five years.  Kasey’s out of the Chase and non-Chasers don’t win many Chase races.  But Kahne has led more laps – 404 which is over 15 percent of the last seven races at the track – he has the second most Fastest Laps Run and Green Flag Passes.  Kasey could pull the upset.

Roush-Fenway May Have a Say-So Too

If Carl Edwards wins it could hardly be called an upset.  Carl is one of the Chasers who still has a chance to haul Johnson in.  Edwards actually has the best Ave Finish in Lowes last seven races – 7.6 – and is the leader in Green Flag Passes.  Carl’s another seven time I-track winner the last five years and has 31 top fives and 46 top tens on intermediates.

Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle has a great record on I-tracks with 12 wins and 28 top fives. He has also won two of the four 2008 Chase races.  Biffle’s Charlotte DR is eighth best at 87.0 with no stat stomping scores in individual categories.

Is the Shrub Back?

Watch Kyle Busch this week. The Shrub may be ready to check back in to the 2008 season after some uncharacteristically poor performances lately. Rowdy owns the second best Driver Rating at 98.7 and five I-track wins overall.  

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a top five Loop DR – fifth best 89.7 – but only three career I-track wins. Maybe some of Johnson’s Lowes success will rub off on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.  Junior’s stats don’t jump out at you.

Talladega winner, Tony Stewart has gone on late season win streaks before. But he hasn’t won much on intermediate tracks.  His DR at Lowes is only 14th best – 80.0. I would more expect a let down after the big Talladega win than a streak.

I’m picking Jimmy Johnson. He has that look again and I think the 48 team will be relentless as they push for their third straight Cup.  The darkhorse pick this week is Kahne.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler – OnPitRow.com

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Talladega Superspeedway

So last week wasn’t quite a bust for me, with my best bets – sure thing Greg Biffle, dark horse Jeff Gordon, and sleeper Clint Bowyer – finishing 3rd, 4th, and 12th, respectively. My lead picks – Tony Stewart at New Hampshire, and Biffle at both Dover and Kansas – have finished 8th, 1st, and respectively, scoring 502 points between them. In other words, if I was in the Chase, I’d be fourth right now, 73 points behind Jimmie Johnson in first.

Talladega, however, offers the biggest challenge for any race forecaster in the entire Chase. A driver can go from 3rd to 30th in half a lap, or the exact opposite. Everyone knows about the Big One, a 20-plus car wreck that more often than not eliminates one of the sport’s top drivers from contention, especially late in the race. In other words, this weekend is a crapshoot. Before picking anybody to win, have a look at the speed charts from every practice, go with a gut feeling, and wear your lucky underwear – you’ll need it. Just don’t drop a deuce and have to wash all the luck out of it.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Talladega:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson’s got momentum on his side, the top cars in the garage, an average start of 8.2 (so you know he’s fast here), and only one start in which he hasn’t led a lap, when his engine blew up in fall 2002. He’s almost a lock – as much as any driver can be at Talladega. Any questions?

2. Carl Edwards: Come Chase time, Edwards does well at Talladega: the past three years, he’s finished 5th, 9th, and 14th in this race (although that 9th came in 2006, when he missed the 10-man cutoff). Despite two engine failures, Edwards has never retired from a race due to an accident. Given his recent momentum, with seven finishes of 3rd or better from Indianapolis to now, don’t expect Cousin Carl to slow down any on Sunday.

3. Greg Biffle: Biff’s never finished better than 13th at Talladega in 2005, even when he hasn‘t gotten caught up in wrecks. He’s led 19 laps at the track in his Cup career. And somehow he’s excited for this race. Biffle’s stated that he’s going to hang around Johnson and Edwards all race to minimize any potential losses in the standings, but expect him to try to break away and lead a few laps if it’ll help him in the points.

4. Jeff Burton: In 29 career starts at Talladega, Burton’s only crashed out twice – and one of those times was his track debut in 1994. His 10 top 10s at the track for his career rank tied for third of all Chase drivers, but he only has two top 5s at the track, in 2001 and 2006. Burton’s almost certain not to wreck, however, so he’s a reliable if not spectacular choice.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy’s one of the few top-caliber drivers who can say he’s never had a day completely ruined by getting caught up in the Big One. As such, he has an average finish of 14.3 at Talladega in 15 starts. The only Chaser with more than five seasons’ experience to finish every race he’s started at the track, Harvick should bring the car home in one piece on Sunday, with a top 10 finish very plausible (7 in his career).

6. Jeff Gordon: Jeff won both races here last season. He’s in dire need of a win this year, but after only finishing 19th at ‘Dega in the series’ spring visit, he‘s not a shoo-in. In 31 starts, however, Gordon’s finished in the top 10 16 times (with six wins) and crashed out only three times. He’s due, and this is a track that Gordon’s found more success on than a lot of drivers, so it’s possible that Gordon can find victory lane this weekend.

7. Clint Bowyer: When Clint completes every lap at Talladega (his last 2 starts at the track, in last year’s Chase and earlier this year), his average finish is 10.0. When he doesn’t (his first 3 starts at the track), his average finish is 36.7. If he finishes the race, he’ll do just fine, but not much more than that.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: From 2001 to 2004, Junebug’s worst finish at Talladega was 8th. Twice he finished 2nd. The other five times, he won. In the spring, he led 46 laps and finished 10th. Junior’s not a sure thing to win this weekend, though, as he hasn’t won here since 2004 and the team is using a backup car due to a nightmare practice. On the other hand, it should be noted that, as DEI were the kings of the restrictor plate in the early 2000s, so too Hendrick has been in the latter half of this decade.

9. Matt Kenseth: When Matt’s on at Talladega, he’s on (67 laps led with an average finish of 6.0 from 2005 to 2006). When he catches a bad break, however, he’s gone (5 finishes outside of the top 20, including his last two starts). An interesting note, however: Each time Matt’s finished inside the top 10 at Kansas, he’s also led laps and finished decently at Talladega. Matt finished 5th last weekend.

10. Denny Hamlin: Denny’s finished in the top 5 twice at Talladega, a 4th in fall 2007 and a 3rd earlier this year. In the three races before that, though, he finished 22nd, 21st, and 21st. Hamlin’s capable of running up front at Talladega, though, after leading at least one lap in all five of his starts. If Denny’s timing is on, we could see the No. 11 surprise a lot of folks by winding up in Victory Lane.

11. Tony Stewart: Smoke’s 13.9 average finish here is tops of all Chase contenders. He also led 61 laps here in the spring before an accident relegated him to 38th place. Tony lost a lot of momentum after finishing 40th at Kansas, but last year he rebounded from another poor Kansas run to finish 8th at ‘Dega. Keep in mind, Stewart’s only led 36 laps in the past 12 races, and didn’t have too much momentum to begin with. Don’t expect a surprise victory, but Stewart should be there in the end.

12. Kyle Busch: With career finishes of 41st, 33rd, 32nd, 11th, 37th, 36th, and 1st, it’s not hard to pick out the outlier in Busch’s ‘Dega stats. Forget the massive streak of bad luck the past few weeks; Busch is too accident prone here in the first place. Of course, I could be wrong, and he could break out this weekend and win (his only win here was this year), but all the signs point otherwise. Sorry, Kyle.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Johnson, plain and simple. You can’t argue with momentum, horsepower, and flat-out talent. In the midst of a nine-race top 10 streak, Harvick also has the potential to put Richard Childress Racing in victory lane. As for a dark horse, look no further than the momentum-charged Biffle, who sounds legitimately excited for this race, despite his track record. Remember, he didn’t have too much going for him at Loudon, either.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Championship Changes Come in the Chase’s Round 4

Want to avoid big wrecks at Talladega Superspeedway?  Run up front.  If you can’t run up front, stay out of the pack as long as possible.

That’s the concensus of the opinions I’ve surveyed this week.  On our INSIDE ARCA radio show Tuesday night I asked our ARCA Insider,  Speed TV commentator and former Cup Series winner at Talladega, Phil Parsons how he would try to avoid the Big One.  Run up front, Phil said.

Later I asked  Patrick Donahue, crew chief for the Red Bull Toyota of Scott Speed and former member of the Jeff Gordon’s Rainbow Warriors, what advice he gives his “Dega drivers.  Patrick said, run up front.

Nine time ARCA RE/MAX Series champion and ARCA-Talladega winner,  Frank Kimmel said much the same.   At Talladega, whenever possible, get to the front. Early.  And stay there.

Six time Talladega Cup race winner Jeff Gordon agrees but did say that if you do get shuffled out of the lead, you have to look at the situation and decide if there are enough laps left for you to clear yourself of the pack and just ride around until the closing stages of the race before making your move.  This isn’t Gordon’s preferred strategy, but it is the one he used last year to win the race.

It’s a Gordon thing

Jeff Gordon’s six wins is a pretty good resume at any track.  The only driver with more at Talladega is the late Dale Earnhardt with ten.  Jeff Gordon has the best Loop Driver Rating for ‘Dega and only one guy has a better Ave Driver Rating – taking the season-to-date Dr and averaging it with the track specific stat.  And Gordon has run up front, leading a category best 301 laps (22.7 percent) in the last seven Talladega races.  Jeffy has the third best Ave Running Position for ‘Dega and the fourth best for the 2008 season.  Gordon is 113 points behind Jimmy Johnson.  He knows that he needs wins.  Jeff Gordon is the favorite this week.

Tony Stewart hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in him as a winner pick.  Tony and the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio have, for all intents, raced themselves out of the Sprint Cup championship picture.  But Stewart’s pack leader stats are strong and his history at Talladega, though winless, has been good.   His 94.4 ‘Dega Driver Rating trails only Gordon and Denny Hamlin.  Smoke has the best Ave Running Postion in the Alabama Loop races. 

Don’t forget the ex-champs

Kurt Busch runs up front too.  His Ave Finish of 10.6 is tops for Talladega.  Like Stewart, big Busch has great stats but no wins in the Cup Series at Talladega.  Also like Smoke, Kurt’s 2008 season makes picking him anywhere to win,  a stretch.  It could happen.  But you better get good odds to bet on it.

If there is a logical, stat based, alternative to Gordon as the pick to win this restrictor plate race, that pick would be Jimmy Johnson.  You would not be wrong to pick J J this week – maybe any week.  He has the best season-to-date Ave Running Position, the sixth best ‘Dega DR and the top DR average at 96.7.  He also won the last race at Kansas.  Johnson leads the points race and he’s been here before.

Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle haven’t been very good at Talladega,  Even combing their 2008 DR stats with the Talladega Loop data doesn’t pardon all of their sins.  All three have Ave DRs under 90.  Biffle’s is a dismal 81.8   Lightning in a bottle?  That would be an upset more special than anything Jimmy the Greek has cooked up.

The best bets for upset are Brian Vickers and Jamie McMurray.  Jamie’s DR is fourth best.  Vickers is fifth.  Brian is on an upswing.  Jamie – not so much.

I’ll take Gordon with Brian Vickers getting the nod as best dark-horse pick to win.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Welcome To The Talladega Jungle

Predicting Talladega is like buying a lottery ticket. Sometimes you win a buck, sometimes you win a little more – but most often you end up wasting money. Case in point the last 3 races at the track in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Back in 2005 Dale Jarrett came out of nowhere to steal the race, and Brian Vickers’ last lap “pass” that sent Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. spinning ruined a lot of days. Then we have the battle last season, in which Jeff Gordon made one of the gutsiest passes I’ve seen at a plate race to snag the win from Johnson with Tony Stewart right on his tail.

There is always a sort of feeling heading into the October Talladega race that you don’t feel in the spring. I’ve felt it for years, and the additions of the Chase have only heightened the anticipation, majesty, and… fear.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Brian Vickers
2005 – Dale Jarrett
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 24th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

As has been the trend in the Chase, Johnson’s 2006 run has been the aberration in how to win the championship. In this case as you can see, throw out that year and the champ will finish in the top 5 at Talladega. This year, that seems to show that some combination of Johnson, Carl Edwards, or Greg Biffle battling for the win. Some smart money would also be on Gordon, Dale Jr., or Kevin Harvick, as the Chevy track record is particularly strong.

Talladega is good for a few surprises in the top 10. In recent years, drivers such as Tony Raines, Jeff Green, and Brendan Gaughan all recorded surprisingly good finishes here. One driver to look for is Mike Wallace in a fourth RCR car. Wallace is widely considered one of the best plate racers, and this car could be really good, or really bad. That’s half the fun of sleepers! For those that have taken a chance on my heavy sleepers, first of all, I apologize. This week I’m going to step out on that limb with David Gilliland. He has run well at plate races, and good be racing for a job next year, given that Paul Menard is headed to the Yates team.

In case you didn’t guess by the title of the column, the Talladega theme song is “Welcome To The Jungle” by Guns N’ Roses. Reportedly the long-awaited album Chinese Democracy will be out November 25. Maybe we can get that free Dr Pepper after all.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

The Biff May be a Stiff at Talladega

They say anything can happen – and anyone can win at Talladega Super Speedway.  I’m not buyin’ it.

I know that  ”Dega is supposed to be the “wild card”.  That I CAN buy because somebody – maybe several somebodies –  who are in Cup contention, or appear to be (there are a lot of “ors” in this conversation) will almost, for sure get caught up in an Alabama Big One and, by that fact, be able to blame their failure to win the 2008 Sprint Cup on something other than their own culpability.

I try to use useful statistics when writing these Chase posts.  But try as I might, I couldn’t find a stat that pointed me, specifically  towards those drivers who have most consistently participated in Talladega “Big Ones”.  Almost makes one think of conspiracy theories – but I don’t subscribe.

I can tell you, based upon NASCAR’s Loop data for the last seven races run at Talladega; of the 2008 Chase contenders, Greg Biffle sucks.  No offense meant Greg, but I’m guessing you’ve spent more than your share of time as a pinball than you would care to admit.  

Now the Biff has been as good as anyone in the first three Chase races and the top Roush-Fenway Racing cars – Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth – are stout.  But the best Loop rated Roushketeer at Talladega is  Jamie McMurray for cryin’ out loud!  McMurray’s Driver Rating is fourth best – 92.1 – compared to Biffle’s 68.0.

The only regular Cup series drivers with worse DR’s that Biffles’s are Casey Mears, David Gilliland, Robby Gordon, Dave Blaney and, surprisingly, Mark Martin.

Plate tracks are different animals.  The temptation is to discount Greg’s Talladega stats as “big one syndrome” or something.  He has been really good these first three Chase races.  But his loop stats for those races were very strong too.  Some drivers – and teams – do extremely well on the plate tracks.  The Earnhardts, Richard Childress Racing and DEI have dominated in the past.  Roush has not.  Biffle is not the pick this week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, inc.

History on Bowtie’s Side in Land of Oz

Kansas Speedway has been kind to the drivers of the General Motors brand.

When a track has had as little history as Kansas, its hard to try to make any conclusions from the limited data.  But one thing is clear; especially if you figure in the Nationwide Series numbers, Chevrolets have won half of the races since Kansas opened in 2001.  Jeff Gordon won the first two Cup races at Kansas in 2001 and 2002.

Joe Nemecheck swept the Busch and Cup races in 2004, driving his own Chevy to the win in the Busch race and taking the Nelson Bowers owned #01 to the Cup win.  Tony Stewart holds the most recent win in a Joe Gibbs owned ride from 2007.

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch round out the Chevy wins in the Nationwide Series coming in 2006 and 2007 respectively.  The remaining fifty percent of the wins are divided amongst Ford and Dodge on the Cup side along with a lone Pontiac win in the Nationwide Series.

While Rick Hendrick owned cars lay claim to the majority of the Chevy wins, all but one of the combined Ford wins have come from Jack Roush owned vehicles.  It’s tough to bet against Chase drivers from either Hendrick or Roush.  Jimmy Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. can be looked on as favorites at Kansas.  With Johnson being given the pole for Sundays race following the disallowing of Juan Pablo Montoya‘s time, JJ would have to be the favorite to pick up his first win at Kansas.

Greg Biffle continues to impress also as his two Ford wins to start the Chase put him in the cat-bird seat.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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