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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Tony Stewart	1	12.06
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	2	12.78
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	1	12.33
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	20	13.72
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	2	13.19
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	2	14.42
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	2	12.89
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	15.17
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	12.81
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	12.53
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	13.83
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.14
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl edwards	2	11.17
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.36
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	11.97
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	9.56
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	2	11.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	2	13.72

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	38	13.44
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	7	14.42
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Marcos Ambrose	39	16.83
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	3	15.69
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kasey Kahne	7	14.64
Eric McGuire	free agent	Greg Biffle	35	16.72
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	15	15.19
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	39	13.92
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	22.11
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	6	16.69
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	7	12.81
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	14.92
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	24	15.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	35	14.08
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	35	13.19
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Martin Truex Jr	3	13.28
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	7	15.44
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	15	14.44

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Homestead - Ford 400

Well, this it it. It’s been a fun 2011 season, and this Sunday champions will finally be crowned–both in NASCAR as well as fantasy leagues worldwide. We will have the normal schedule this weekend: two practices on Friday, qualifying Saturday, and then the race on Sunday. I would like to quickly thank everyone that took the time to read my articles this season, and I hope you continue reading next year. Now without further ado, my final fantasy preview for the 2011 NASCAR season…

During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.

2. Tony Stewart - Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.

3. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.

4. Kasey Kahne - I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.

5. Matt Kenseth - It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.

6. A.J. Allmendinger - Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.

7. Jimmie Johnson - I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.

8. Kyle Busch - I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. - Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.

10. Greg Biffle - The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.

11. Jeff Burton - All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.

12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.

13. Kurt Busch - If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.

15. Trevor Bayne - Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.

Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:

Brian Vickers - I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”

David Reutimann - What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.

Marcos Ambrose - I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.

Scouting Report: Ford 400

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Ford 400:

1) Pick the best intermediate track drivers of the year. You’ll never have better information then you will this week. You’ve just watched 10 months of racing.

2) Practice makes perfect. As is the case with every intermediate track practice (Happy Hour on Friday this week) is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Pick drivers with momentum. At the end of the season some teams step up their game and others are getting out the golf clubs. Pick the drivers who have looked good in recent weeks.

4) Because of the progressive banking and the ability for passing qualifying is an overrated variable this week

Drivers to watch this week:

Tony Stewart – Now’s not the time to bet against Stewart. He’s a man on a mission and won the last time the series visited an intermediate track. He has won at Homestead before but that win doesn’t hold any relevancy because the track was under a different configuration at the time. His recent history is nothing to brag about but he did finish 8th last year (17th place average running position).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion of the Ford 400 and he has six consecutive top seven finishes in NASCAR’s season finale. Last year Edwards recorded a perfect 150 driver rating and led 190 laps. Edwards also might provide vital qualifying points this week. Last year he started second and in 2008 he started fourth. Since 2005 Edwards has a 4.3 average finish (best in series) and a 7.5 average running position (best in series).

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has never won at Homestead but his 3rd (2008), 2nd (2009) and 3rd (2010) in the last three races is pretty impressive. His 2.6 average finish in this stretch is even better than Carl Edwards (3.0). If I were to pick Harvick at any intermediate track on the schedule this is the race I would pick him. In the last three races his average running position (6.3) is tied for the best in the series and no driver has ran more laps in the top fifteen then him (94.8% of laps).

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won this race in 2007 and more importantly he’s in a Ford. Beyond the Blue Oval brigade theirs only a handful of drivers who will be in the mix for the win at Homestead-Miami. Last season Kenseth finished 9th and had a 7th place average running position. His 107.7 driver rating ranked as the 5th best.

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has been a top tier intermediate track driver throughout the Chase. I don’t expect the Ford 400 to be any different. Last year in his Red Bull Toyota he started on the pole and finished 6th. In the last three intermediate track races he’s finished 3rd (Texas), 4th (Charlotte) and 2nd (Kansas).

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Loop Data From Last Years Race
• Chase Statistics
• Past Race Winners / Past Pole Winners
• Entry List
• Schedule of Events

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum Over The Last 5 Races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jeff Burton
6. Greg Biffle
7. Clint Bowyer
8. AJ Allmendinger
9. Martin Treux Jr.
10. Marcos Ambrose

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:

• Carl Edwards 5/2
• Tony Stewart 7/2
• Matt Kenseth 7/1
• Jimmie Johnson 8/1
• Kyle Busch 9/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Jeff Gordon
• Kasey Kahne 18/1
• Greg Biffle 18/1
• Denny Hamlin 18/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Deny Hamlin	14	13.86
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Denny Hamlin	14	11.19
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	3	10.19
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	1	11.19
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	1	13.25
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	2	9.81
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	1	10.61
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	32	13.58
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Denny Hamlin	14	13.39
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	3	11.67
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	1	10.47
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.56
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Carl Edwards	1	11.78
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.22
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	14	14.06
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	14	10.94
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Denny Hamlin	14	11.42
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	1	14.00

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Ford 400 at Homestead

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	39	16.53
James Jones	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	39	14.36
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	21	19.53
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Joey Logano	39	12.31
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	16	15.75
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Ryan NewmanDale Earnhardt Jr	727	13.3914.44
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	39	15.67
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Mark Martin	16	12.44
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	39	15.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	David Ragan	20	13.69
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Mark Martin	16	14.97
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Martin Truex Jr	11	14.83
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	39	16.64
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	11	17.69
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	39	16.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	16	16.28
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	39	20.25
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	39	13.00

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a 1.5-mile track that features variable banking in the corners that gradually increases from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Since the track only hosts the season finale, it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum and overall success on intermediate tracks this season in addition to historical stats at Homestead.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami Speedway

1. Jimmie Johnson… Two poles in the last three starts at Homestead.
2. Scott Speed… Qualified on the outside pole in both career starts at Homestead.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Average running position of 12th or better with at least one lap led in four straight starts at Homestead.
2. Denny Hamlin… Won 2009 race at Homestead, average running position of ninth or better in three straight starts.
3. Kevin Harvick… Three Top Fives in the last four starts at Homestead, seven Top 10s in nine career starts.
4. Carl Edwards… Won 2008 race at Homestead, five straight Top 10s- has never held an average running position worse than 15th.
5. Jeff Gordon… Nine Top 10s, five Top Fives in 11 career starts at Homestead.
6. Mark Martin… Finished 12th or better in three of the last four starts at Homestead.
7. Clint Bowyer… Three finishes of 11th or better in four career starts at Homestead.
8. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best eighth last year at Homestead, average running position of 10th or better in two straight.
9. Matt Kenseth… Won 2007 race at Homestead, average running position of seventh or better in three of the last four starts.
10. Joey Logano… Finished 24th last year in first career Cup start at Homestead, 7.0 in two Nationwide starts.
11. Kurt Busch… Won 2002 race at Homestead, three Top Fives in the last five starts- two DNFs due to crash.
12. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (1999, 2000) at Homestead, average running position of eighth or better in two of the last three starts.
13. Jeff Burton… Runner-up last year at Homestead, first Top Five since 2003.
14. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (2004-06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.0 in the last three starts.
15. Martin Truex Jr…. Four straight Top 10s at Homestead.
16. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished 11th and 10th in two career starts at Homestead.
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of 12th in two of the last three starts at Homestead.
18. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 15.8 in eight career starts at Homestead.
19. David Reutimann… Average running positions of eighth and 16th in the last two starts at Homestead.
20. Ryan Newman… Average running position of 18th or better in four of the last five starts at Homestead, one Top 10.
21. Kasey Kahne… Average finish of 17.5 in six career starts at Homestead, two Top 10s.
22. David Ragan… Average running position of 14th or better in two of the last three starts at Homestead.
23. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.9 in 10 career starts at Homestead, two Top 15s.
24. Brad Keselowski… Average finish of 24.0 in two career starts at Homestead.
25. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.0 in four career starts at Homestead.
26. Marcos Ambrose… Led four laps at Homestead last year, finished 35th.
27. Sam Hornish Jr…. Held an average running position of 17th last year at Homestead, finished 21st.
28. Scott Speed… Average finish of 21.5 in two career starts at Homestead.
29. Bill Elliott… Won 2001 race at Homestead, finished 12th and 16th in the last two starts.
30. Aric Almirola… Finished 35th in only career start at Homestead (2008).
31. Casey Mears… Average running position of 16th or better in three straight starts at Homestead.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 33.0 in four career starts at Homestead.
33. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 28.4 in 11 career starts at Homestead.
34. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 19.4 in nine career starts at Homestead.
35. Bobby Labonte… Won 2003 race at Homestead, average finish of 32.4 since 2005.
36. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 28.4 in five career starts at Homestead.
37. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Homestead.
38. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.9 in eight career starts at Homestead.
39. Patrick Carpentier… Finished 40th in only career start at Homestead (2007).
40. Andy Lally… Possible start and park.
41. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
42. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
43.  J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park.
44. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park.
45. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. Two straight DNQs.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	12	8.26
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	8.29
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	7	9.43
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Mark Martin	12	10.37
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Matt Kenseth	13	10.51
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	6	11.11
Eric Brewer		Mark Martin	12	11.40
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Ryan Newman	23	11.57
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Greg Biffle	14	11.71
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	6	11.97
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Greg Biffle	14	12.49
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	38	12.60
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Greg Biffle	14	12.63
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Matt Kenseth	13	12.89
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	12	13.06
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	12	16.74
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kurt Busch	4	17.94

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.

• Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
• Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
• Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.

Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami

1. Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ‘06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
2. Ryan Newman… Starting second in ‘05 and ‘07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ‘06 and ‘08 when he started 16th and 29th.
3. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ‘07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to  qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ‘03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ‘03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ‘06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
4. Kurt Busch… Won in ‘02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ‘06 and ‘08, runner-up in ‘07. Y!-B1
5. Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
6. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ‘00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ‘03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
8. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
9. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
10. Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
11. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
12. Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ‘07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
13. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
14. Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
15. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
16. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
17. Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ‘03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
18. Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
19. Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
20. Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ‘07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
21. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
22. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
23. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ‘03.
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
27. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ‘01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
30. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
31. Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
32. Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
33. David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, did not start last year.
34. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
35. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
37. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ‘03.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
39. Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
40. Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ‘06 and ‘07.
41. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
42. Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
43. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
44. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
45. Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
46. Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ‘03.
47. Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ‘03.
48. Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ‘07 Nationwide race.

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