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NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.

• Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
• Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
• Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.

Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami

1. Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ‘06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
2. Ryan Newman… Starting second in ‘05 and ‘07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ‘06 and ‘08 when he started 16th and 29th.
3. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ‘07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to  qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ‘03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ‘03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ‘06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
4. Kurt Busch… Won in ‘02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ‘06 and ‘08, runner-up in ‘07. Y!-B1
5. Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
6. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ‘00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ‘03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
8. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
9. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
10. Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
11. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
12. Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ‘07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
13. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
14. Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
15. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
16. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
17. Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ‘03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
18. Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
19. Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
20. Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ‘07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
21. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
22. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
23. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ‘03.
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
27. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ‘01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
30. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
31. Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
32. Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
33. David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, did not start last year.
34. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
35. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
37. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ‘03.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
39. Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
40. Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ‘06 and ‘07.
41. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
42. Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
43. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
44. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
45. Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
46. Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ‘03.
47. Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ‘03.
48. Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ‘07 Nationwide race.

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