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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Coke Zero 400 Powered by Coca Cola

Greetings On Pit Row readers.

There have been two restrictor plate races held thus far, so consider the results of the Daytona 500 and the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway when  evaluating your lineup for this week.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options.

Leave your comments below!

1. Tony Stewart… Strong qualifier: best average starting position (16.0) over the last five years. Eight top-10 finishes in 11 races since ‘04, including two wins. Led laps in those eight top-10s. Y! B-1
2. Kyle Busch… Finished fourth or better in four of the last six races, including a win last year. Y! A-1
3. Matt Kenseth… Won this year’s Daytona 500 but historically better in the July race: ‘08- third, ‘07- eighth, ‘06- fifth, ‘05- ninth, ‘03- sixth. Y! A-2
4. Kurt Busch… 17 career starts: eight top-fives. Top-10 finishes in five of the last six races. Y! B-2
5. Mark Martin… Good qualifier. 48 career starts, zero wins. Started second at this year’s Daytona 500 (finished 16th) and last year’s Coke Zero 400 (finished 10th). Y! A-3
6. Jimmie Johnson… Won in ‘06, only one top-10 in the six races since. Had finished eighth or better in six of seven previous races (’02-’05). Y! A-4
7. Jeff Gordon… Wins in ‘04 and ‘05 but only three top-10 finishes in the eight races since.
8. Clint Bowyer… Seven career starts: five top-10 finishes. Career-best fourth-place finish at Daytona.
9. Kasey Kahne… ‘07, ‘08: streak four top-10 finishes, finished 29th at this year’s Daytona 500. Y! B-3
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finished ninth and eighth last year, leading laps in both. Finished 27th at this year’s Daytona 500. 19 career starts: led laps 13 times. Runner-up at Talladega. Y! B-4
11. Ryan Newman… 14 career starts: won 2/08, only two other top-10 finishes. Third at Talladega. Y! B-5
12. Brian Vickers… Finished 12th and 11th last year. Finished 39th (accident) at this year’s Daytona 500. Y! B-6
13. Kevin Harvick… Last six races at Daytona: win, runner-up, five finishes of 14th or better.
14. Carl Edwards… Only two top-10 finishes but each came in the last two July races (fourth 7/07, second 7/08).
15. Denny Hamlin… Seven career starts: zero top-10 finishes. Career-best 17th (2/08, 7/06) Y! B-7
16. Greg Biffle… 13 career starts: only three top-10 finishes. Third at Talladega.
17. Jeff Burton… One top-10 finish since ‘04.
18. David Reutimann… Career-best 12th-place finish at Daytona. Y! B-8
19. Marcos Ambrose… Finished 17th at this year’s Daytona 500, first career start. Fourth at Talladega. Y! C-1
20. Elliott Sadler… Strong value play. Last seven races: five finishes of sixth or better
21. AJ Allmendinger… Finished third in second career start at Daytona this year. Y! C-2
22. Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. No Cup starts at Daytona. Nationwide Series: ‘08- 16th, fifth (led 28 laps). ‘09- 2nd (led six laps). Won at Talladega. Y! C-3
23. Joey Logano… DNF in first career start at Daytona this year. Finished 20th in the Nationwide Series.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. No top-10s but four straight finishes of 20th or better.
25. Juan Pablo Montoya… Career-high 14th-place finish at this year’s Daytona 500. 32nd or worse in three of five career starts.
26. Jamie McMurray… Finished 26th or worse in four of the last five at Daytona, a win in ‘07.
27. Bobby Labonte… Finished 11th and 13th last year. Finished 22nd at this year’s Daytona 500. Y! C-4
28. Robby Gordon… Daytona 500: 34th. ‘08: eighth, sixth. Streak of six top-15 finishes from ‘06-’08.
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Declining over three career starts: 15th, 29th, 32nd.
30. David Ragan… Lone top-10 of the season came at Daytona.
31. Casey Mears… 15th or worse in five straight races at Daytona.
32. Joe Nemechek… Good qualifier: 7/08- fourth, 7/06- fifth, 7/05- fifth.
33. Michael Waltrip… Daytona 500: seventh. First top-10 since winning in ‘03.
34. Reed Sorenson… Last three Daytona 500’s: 13th, fifth, ninth. Last three July races: 34th, 42nd, 22nd.
35. David Stremme… ‘07: 11th, 22nd. Daytona 500: 33nd
36. Scott Speed… Daytona 500: 35th. Fifth at Talladega.
37. Paul Menard… Finished a career-best 15th last year.
38. Patrick Carpentier… ‘08: started 10th, finished 14th.
39. John Andretti… Three top-20 finishes since ‘00.
40. David Gilliland… ‘07: eighth, 11th. ‘08: 28th, 40th.
41. Regan Smith… ‘08: 37th, 24th. Daytona 500: 21st
42. Dave Blaney…’08: 38th, 19th.
43. Max Papis… No Cup or Nationwide starts at Daytona.
44. Tony Raines… ‘07: 39th.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: LifeLock 400 from MIS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	7	7.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	4	9
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Mark Martin	1	9.6
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	22	11.1
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Carl Edwards	4	11.2
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	4	11.9
Eric Brewer	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Tony Stewart	7	12.6
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	No Pick	44	12.9
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	7	13.4
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Carl Edwards	4	13.4
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Matt Kenseth	20	13.6
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	4	14.4
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Carl Edwards		15
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Greg Biffle	5	16.5
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Matt Kenseth	20	16.8
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kevin Harvick	18	18.6
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	7	18.6

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Pocono 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	1	7.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	7	9.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	7	10.2
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	4	10.3
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	1	10.5
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	37	12.2
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	1	12.5
Eric Brewer		Kurt Busch	37	13
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Kurt Busch	37	13.1
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Denny Hamlin	38	13.9
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	19	14.2
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	38	15.2
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Ryan Newman	5	15.8
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Tony Stewart	1	16.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	7	17.1
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brian Vickers	21	18.6
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	37	19.7

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Autism Speaks 400 from Dover

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	10	8.1
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	1	9.6
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Kyle Busch	23	10.1
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	1	10.5
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Greg Biffle	3	10.8
Eric Brewer		Tony Stewart	2	11
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Carl Edwards	7	11.1
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	23	11.3
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Ryan Newman	8	11.9
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	10	13.3
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	10	13.4
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Carl Edwards	7	13.8
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Ryan Newman	8	16.8
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Greg Biffle	3	17.8
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	23	18.3
Eric McClung	KFFL Fantasy NASCAR Blog	Greg Biffle	3	18.3
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	36	18.4

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Sprint All-Star Race at Lowes Motorspeedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	–	7.4
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports		–	7.9
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	–	9.3
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	–	9.7
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names		–	11.2
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports		–	11.2
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch		–	11.3
Eric Brewer		Jimmie Johnson	–	11.7
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports		–	12.2
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	–	13.1
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Kyle Busch	–	14.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	–	14.9
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports		–	16.8
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kurt Busch	–	18
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Tony Stewart	–	18.2
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch	–	19.2
Mike Maruska	NASCAR Ranting and Raving		–	19.4
Eric McClung	KFFL Fantasy NASCAR Blog	Mark Martin	–	19.9
Jeff Gutowski			–	22
Lori Munro	RaceTalkRadio.com		–	25.1

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	–23	8.4
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	– 6	9.3
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	–23	9.6
Ryan Rantz		Tony Stewart	–23	10.1
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	–23	11
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	–37	11.7
Darren Fauth	DarrenFauth.com	Kurt Busch	– 6	12.3
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	– 6	12.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	–30	12.4
Eric Brewer		Tony Stewart	–23	12.5
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	– 6	13.1
Mike Maruska			–44	13.2
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch	–25	15.3
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	KurtBusch	–  6	15.9
Jeff Gutowski			–44	16.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	–25	16.8
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	–23	17
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kasey Kahne	–36	18.4
Eric McClung	KFFL Fantasy NASCAR Blog	Jeff Gordon	–37	19.4
Lori Munro	RaceTalkRadio.com		–44	20.3

Homestead Fantasy Picks: Throw Away the Loop Stats

Use your heads NASCAR fans. With only three races in the NASCAR Loop stat database for Homestead-Miami Speedway, you will need to look at more trends than the Loop Data give you. In fact, make it easy on your self and just pick a Roush-Fenway Racing driver.

I’ll admit that after last week when Jimmy Johnson again put a stompin’ on the field at Phoenix International Raceway, I am shell shocked. Johnson and Chad Knaus have shown no signs of stroking it and running for points at all. Will this week, with only a 36th place finish needed to clinch a third straight Sprint Cup Series championship change anything? Jimmy’s average finish in the last three Homestead-Miami finales is only 18.7. He was, in two of those races, leading the championship going into the event. That may show a trend toward being conservative. Actually, it may not matter.

The Roush-Fenway drivers have been very good at Homestead. Greg Biffle once won here in three consecutive years. Greg is tops in Fastest Laps Run (80) and Laps in the Top 15 - 688 - in the last three races too.

Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 3.3 and has led the most laps - 214 for 26.7 percent -  in the three Loop Data races. And Kenseth is one of only three of the 2008 Chase qualifiers to have won at Homestead. Biffle and two-time winner Tony Stewart are the others.

But Carl Edwards is my pick this time. Carl has shown that he and crew chief Bob Osborne have no quit in them. They are the only team with any mathematical chance to upset the Lowes No. 48 apple cart. They have to win the race. They can win the race. Carl has an average finish of 5.7 - only third best among the Roush drivers - and the fourth best Driver Rating at 107.2.

So Carl is my pick. And Jeff Gordon is my “I can’t believe I’m calling him an upset”, upset special. Gordon has never won at Homestead-Miami - there are only two of those tracks left on his to-do list. It’s just a hunch that Gordon may get the job done here, this time around.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Texas Motor Speedway is the Alamo for Richard Childress’ Drivers

Anybody got a coon-skin helmet? Ask the guys who drive for Richard Childress Racing. They may feel about as besieged at Texas Motor Speedway as Davey Crockett and the Texicans did at the Alamo. Well, not quite, but you get the idea. With a total of only seven laps led in the last seven races between the lot of them, TMS hasn’t been good to Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer.

The RCR trio are the worst of the Chasers, Driver Rating-wise with scores that put them 13th-15th of the rated drivers. That, in itself isn’t all bad. Jeff Gordon is only 12th himself. But if you are looking to pick a winner for Texas, Gordon has at least led 194 laps.

Only Greg Biffle, of the Chase contenders - and after Atlanta, that is a very loose description - has run smaller percentage of Laps in the Top 15 - 46.6 - than the RCR boys, who range from 54.6 to 55.9 percent. But Biffle has 280 Laps Led.

Other drivers with poor stats at Texas include Ryan Newman - DR 67.3 and 5 Laps led with an Ave Finish of 22.3. Elliott Sadler - 68.1 DR and 23.1 Ave Finish and Brian Vickers with a Driver Rating of 62.9 and 25.1 for an Save Finish.

Be safe. Take Jimmy Johnson.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Chasers Rule at Atlanta: Someone has to Suck

The top ten drivers in NASCAR Loop Data stats for the past seven Atlanta Motor Speedway Sprint Cup races are all 2008 Chase to the Cup qualifiers.

The top five all have Driver Ratings above 100. 100 is very good.

Jimmy Johnson leads ‘em out - surprise! - with a score of 113.4. Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle take it down to 102.3. The next five, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch span 96.6 to 88.5. There are no Atlanta slouches in the whole group.

Denny Hamlin has the 15th best Driver Rating and it’s still pretty close at 83.5. Kevin Harvick though, looks like the relative red-headed step child of the bunch. Harvick’s DR is 74.5, with an Ave Finish of 22.9.

Harvick and Hamlin are the only chasers with negative Passing Differentials. Harvick has led only 11 laps and Hamlin but 19 (though Jeff Burton has the lowest total of the chasers with three.) The top five have led a total of 1387 - 60.8 percent of all laps in the last seven races.

Surprisingly, Bobby Labonte, who at one time not long ago owed Atlanta Motor Speedway, has a Dr of only 65.7 and an Ave Finish of 27.1. I used to pick Labonte every time the Cuppers went to AMS. Worked out pretty good for a number of seasons. Ryan Newman has a Series best Ave Start of 6.1 and finish of 22.7 during the Loop era. So much for qualifying. And for a driver with the reputation of being fast on fast tracks that Michael Waltrip has, Mikey looks bad at AMS - DR of 61.0, one Lap Led and Ave Finish at 18.7.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Martinsville Looks Dangerous for Roush-Fenway Duo

Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have had plenty of success on short tracks. But not at Martinsville Speedway. The two Roush-Fenway drivers have little margin for error left if they plan to push Jimmy Johnson and, now, Jeff Burton for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship.

Martinsville, being the half-mile bullring that it is, has a bit of a wild-card flavor when it comes to championship considerations. Accidents happen, and they can happen to anybody here. But the trends favor Burton and Johnson to miss the wrecks and Edwards and Biffle, not so much.

Of all the Chase contenders in 2008, Biffle has the lowest Loop Data Driver Rating for Martinsville - 64.4 - and Edwards is next at 72.4. Biffle has just one top ten in 11 attempts and an Ave Finish of 23.6. Carl has one top ten and averages a bit worse than 19th place. For comparison, Jimmy Johnson has nine top fives, 12 top tens and an Ave Finish of 6.0. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 121.2.

For either Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle to leave Virginia this weekend and still be considered serious contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup, a reversal of fortune must occur. For them, Jimmy Johnson or both.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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