• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Contact Us
• Advertise With Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Happy Halloween Fantasy Racers

With three races to go in the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, I’m wondering if any of you fantasy racing fans are starting to get early withdrawl simptoms.

Since becoming involved with the Fantasy Players Network, OnPitRow.com has paid more attention to NASCAR fantasy gaming than we ever did before. These special, daily posts centered on the Chase to the Sprint Cup are part of that increased focus. We hope you’ve enjoyed and gotten some value from them.

The writers involved - Matt Mercer, Chris Leone and Luke Poland along with  Steve and I have put a lot of time and thought into the content. Personally, I feel priveledged to be part of it. These guys are good.

I also want to thank Darren of One Bad Wheel for giving ON PIT ROW the opportunity to be a partial sponsor for his great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game. It’s a great game and I continue to absolutely suck at it. But so does Steve, so we at least have a bragging rights battle between the two of us - kind of a Fast Lap for fantasy racing picks.

So keep that all in mind if you consider paying any serious attention to the NASCAR fantasy racing winners that either of us suggest. If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Thanks for reading our Fantasy NASCAR thoughts here at OnPitRow.com and at the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. And here’s a tip; check out Scott Engle’s race previews at RotoExperts.com.

Photo credit: NASCAR.com

With One Battle to Win: What NASCAR General to Take?

Carl Edwards won the battle of Atlanta but Jimmy Johnson surely won the war. With a 183 point lead, only three races to go and a seemingly invincible team, Hendrick Motorsports’ no. 48 has it’s third straight Sprint Cup all but locked up. Edwards is putting up a spirited fight, but the Johnson -  Chad Knaus combo is relentless.

Still this column is not about championships. We’ve been mostly using data derived from NASCAR’s scoring loops, mixing in some traditional stats and the random hunch, to try and pick a winner for each upcoming race in the Chase to the Cup. Next up is the 500 miler at Texas Motor Speedway, one of NASCAR’s ubiquitous, intermediate tracks.

Great military leaders throughout history have always strived for command of the terrain. Carl Edwards held the high-ground at Atlanta Motor Speedway for most of the day last Sunday. In the end he managed to hold off the counter-attack of Jimmy Johnson. But it may have been more a matter of Johnson running out of laps than that of Edwards commanding the field. Carl did all he could do. Can he do it again at Texas?

Carl has some things stacked in his favor. He won the first Texas race of 2008. Same year sweeps seem to happen more often on intermediate tracks than on any other type. Cousin Carl has eight wins on the I-tracks during the last five years - a total that trails only Greg Biffle (12) and Johnson (14). And, as Matt pointed out, the fall Atlanta winner has followed up with a Texas Two-step in each of the last three years. Edwards’ Loop Data is strong for Texas too, with a Driver Rating of 96.0 - sixth best - 255 Laps Led and 70.2 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

Tony Stewart is tied for the top Driver Rating with a 107.9 and has series leading stats of 196 Fastest Laps Run, 2109 - 89.8 percent -  Laps in the Top 15, 437 Laps Led and and Ave Position of 8.0.  Tony has four I-track wins, including 2006 at TMS.

Biffle, as stated before, has 12 wins on the intermediates. He always seems fast on fast tracks like Texas. But his tenth best DR for TMS and his lack of category leading Loop Stats make it tough to pick him over his teammate Edwards.

Biffle’s other Roush-Fenway partner, Matt Kenseth has a better shot. Kenseth has the second best Driver Rating - 104.9 - and the best Ave Finish and Ave Mid-race Position - 6.9 and 4.9  - along with the top Ave Points Gained for races at Texas. Kenseth is a six-time I-track winner.

Denny Hamlin’sDriver Rating is a strong 101.9 and though winless on intermediates, has the third best Ave Finish on the I-tracks in general and TMS in particular.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is a three-time I-track winner and has a Loop Driver Rating of 98.1 - 5th best.  But if you heard any of the in car radio conversation between Junior and crew chief Tony Eury Jr, it will be hard to have confidence in their ability to figure the current car out enough to win at Texas. Eury Jr was at a loss to the point where Earnhardt had to calm HIM down. Not the normal state of affairs with the no. 88 team.

Jimmy Johnson was asked if he felt that, with such a big points lead, he could ease up a bit and drive for points. He said, absolutely not. He plans to drive every race that’s left with the intention of winning it. That should send chills down the rosy necks of Johnson haters everywhere. Johnson has a Driver Rating of 107.9 - tied for best with Stewart - he has the best Ave Start and Ave Finish on I-tracks in general and the most wins too.

The pick is the no. 48 Lowes Chevrolet to win this week. For an upset special take Martin Truex Jr  who is seventh in Driver Rating and due for DEI to get a break.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Atlanta Motor Speedway: Only the Top Teams Need Apply

G’wan home you guys. That’s what the stats are saying to all but the members of NASCAR’s 2008 royalty. That being the cars and drivers of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress. All others are mear pretenders to the Sprint Cup throne, at least for this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The top ten Loop Driver Ratings all belong to members of those four teams. DEI pilots, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr come in 11th and 12th with the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch right behind them. But the talent of the big four teams looks too tuned-in to AMS to be upset by those guys. It would be a huge surprise.

General Johnson’s March Through Georgia

Once again, Jimmy Johnson holds most of the Loop cards. There are 16 categories that make up the Loop Data Box Score. Jimmy has the top stat in 11 of those columns for Atlanta. Significantly Johnson holds the edge in Ave Position and Finish - 6.6 and 5.9. He has led more laps - 326 for 14.3 percent - and run the most Laps in the Top 15 - 2142 for 94.0 percent. His number one Driver Rating is 113.4. J J has the top season-to-date Driver Rating too, at 107.2.

The next four guys in the Atlanta Loop all have Driver Ratings of 102.3 or better. So Johnson won’t have the track to himself Sunday. Both Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr are past winners at AMS and have the second and third DRs - 104.4 and 103.6. Stewart has led 318 laps - 14.0 percent and just behind Johnson. Junior is right there with 299 laps led. Ave Finishes of 9.4 for Smoke and 10.9 for Junior are significantly behind Johnson.

The Challenge of the Roushketeers

The two Roush-Fenway drivers who most closely chase Jimmy Johnson in the Chase are Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards year-to-date Driver Rating is second only to Johnson at 105.4. His AMS rating is fourth at 102.8 and he has 2nd best 197 Fastest Laps Run. Carl is a two-time winner at Atlanta and is typically Roush strong on the fast mile-and-a-half tracks.

Greg Biffle has the fifth best DR - 102.3 - second best Ave Running Position and Laps in the Top 15 percentage - 9.8 and 83.4 percent - and series high 211 Fastest Laps Run. But Biffle is win-less at AMS as are Chasers Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth (Driver Ratings - 92.8 and 94.1). But all three drivers are very capable on intermediate tracks.

Jeff Gordon has only four races left in which to claim his first win of 2008. Gordon has an amazing string of 14 straight years with at least two wins. Time is running out but Atlanta could get him started on an end of season run. He has four wins at AMS, is the sixth rated driver in the Loop Stats. 

Twenty One Anyone?

Kyle Busch has twenty NASCAR major wins in 2008. It’s been awhile since he scored in the Cup Series, though he still has the third season-to-date Driver Rating at 104.2. Kyle was the winner the last time we went to Atlanta and AMS has produced plenty of sweeps over the years. Carl Edwards was the last to pull it off. But Kyle’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, claimed that the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars have an advantage on what Joe Gibbs Racing is fielding right now. I believe him.

The pick, this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jimmy Johnson can’t win them all, can he? - with a dark-horse shout out to DEI’s Regan Smith.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Can Kasey Kahne Upset the Chasers?

Jimmy Johnson has a grip on Lowes Motor Speedway and NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, Johnson has won 14 of the 75 I-track races, finished in the top five 37 times and been top ten 51 times.  He’s won five of his 14 starts at Lowe’s - leading all active drivers - and has eight top fives with eleven top tens. And Jimmy has the top Loop Data Driver Rating for the track as well - 116.5. That’s good. Real good.

But Johnson hasn’t won them all.  In fact Kasey Kahne is going for the three race 2008 sweep at Lowes. Kahne won the non-points all-star race and the Coca Cola 600 back in May. He holds the third best Loop DR - 98.4 - and is a seven time winner on intermediates the last five years.  Kasey’s out of the Chase and non-Chasers don’t win many Chase races.  But Kahne has led more laps - 404 which is over 15 percent of the last seven races at the track - he has the second most Fastest Laps Run and Green Flag Passes.  Kasey could pull the upset.

Roush-Fenway May Have a Say-So Too

If Carl Edwards wins it could hardly be called an upset.  Carl is one of the Chasers who still has a chance to haul Johnson in.  Edwards actually has the best Ave Finish in Lowes last seven races - 7.6 - and is the leader in Green Flag Passes.  Carl’s another seven time I-track winner the last five years and has 31 top fives and 46 top tens on intermediates.

Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle has a great record on I-tracks with 12 wins and 28 top fives. He has also won two of the four 2008 Chase races.  Biffle’s Charlotte DR is eighth best at 87.0 with no stat stomping scores in individual categories.

Is the Shrub Back?

Watch Kyle Busch this week. The Shrub may be ready to check back in to the 2008 season after some uncharacteristically poor performances lately. Rowdy owns the second best Driver Rating at 98.7 and five I-track wins overall.  

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a top five Loop DR - fifth best 89.7 - but only three career I-track wins. Maybe some of Johnson’s Lowes success will rub off on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.  Junior’s stats don’t jump out at you.

Talladega winner, Tony Stewart has gone on late season win streaks before. But he hasn’t won much on intermediate tracks.  His DR at Lowes is only 14th best - 80.0. I would more expect a let down after the big Talladega win than a streak.

I’m picking Jimmy Johnson. He has that look again and I think the 48 team will be relentless as they push for their third straight Cup.  The darkhorse pick this week is Kahne.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Kansas Speedway: Round Three of NASCAR’s Chase

Greg Biffle won this race in 2007.  But Biffle wasn’t in the Chase last year.  Three of the last four Kansas Speedway Sprint Cup race winners were non-Chase contenders in fact. 

The Biff is in the Chase this time and coming off a sweep of the first two rounds of the 2008 Chase to the Cup.  He has the number one Loop Data Driver Rating for Kansas Speedway - 118.5 - and the second best combined Driver Rating - 106.5 - when averaging in the season-to-date stats.  His average position in the three Loop Data races is 6.4 and he has run more laps in the top 15 - 702 for 94.4 percent - than anyone else.  And only one driver has won more races than Biffle - 13 -  on NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in the last five years.  Greg Biffle looks pretty studdly this week.

And so does the only driver with more intermediate track wins than the Biff.  That would be Jimmy Johnson with 23.  Johnson has something else that Biffle wants.  Greg is going for three straight Sprint Cup wins.  The last driver to pull that off is Johnson, who won four in a row at the end of the 2007 Chase.  Jimmy has the second best Kansas Driver Rating - 115.6 - but the top combined DR at 110.5.  Johnson has one top five and four top tens, but is winless at Kansas.

Anybody but Johnson

Carl Edwards leads the Sprint Cup standings.  His Driver Ratings for Kansas are a ninth best 90.2 for the Speedway and a combined fourth - 98.5 - when factoring in 2008 season-to-date.  Carl is part of  the surging Roush-Fenway organization.  Along with Biffle and Matt Kenseth, Edwards heads a three pronged assault on the Cup by the Cat in the Hat.  The trio took the top three spots at Dover International Speedway in race two.

Kenseth’s performance was the biggest surprise, based upon what had been happening with that team.  The no. 17 had the second best Dover Loop stats, but it was hard to look his way before the race.  A strong second at the Monster Mile makes this week’s outlook more positive.  Matt’s DR is eighth best for Kansas and he has the second most top ten finishes on intermediates the last five years.

Is Kyle Busch Really Toast?

Kyle Busch still has the best season-to-date Driver Rating, despite finishing 34th and 43rd the last two races.  But for the third straight week, his track specific DR is sub-top ten at 16th best 80.0, with just one top ten in four races.  The Shrub has been good on intermediates, finishing top ten in nearly half of his starts.  The question is, can the Joe Gibbs Racing no.18 right the ship.  If Kyle was feeling championship pressure, that should be gone - at least for now.

Gibb’s team leader - I think he’s still the team leader - Tony Stewart has the third best Kansas and combined DR.  He has won at Kansas and eight wins on intermediate tracks.  Can Tony win another race before he leaves Joe Gibbs Racing for good? 

Jeff Gordon is the only driver to win more than once at Kansas with two to go with ten other intermediate track wins the last five years.  Gordon has the fifth best combined DR and he’s coming off a solid seventh at Dover. His average finish at Kansas - 10.6 - is better than all but Clint Bowyer’s 5.5.

I’m hearing a lot about the Richard Childress Racing drivers being tough this week.  Bowyer actually has the fourth best Kansas DR at 106.5.  But he’s only races here twice in the Cup Series.  Bowyer finished eighth at Dover.  Kevin Harvick’s DR is 11th for Kansas - 83.3 and Jeff Burton has a 22nd best 70.4.  Their combined DRs are 86.6 and 79.9.  None of the RCR guys has a Kansas Cup win and they have six intermediate track wins between the three of them.

Dale Earnhardt Jr  finished 24th and with a Kansas DR of 82.0 and four intermediate track wins, Junior doesn’t look like a pick this week.  I need to see this team finish a race strong before I can take them.

But if you want a wild, dark-horse pick, go with Hendrick Motorsports’ Casey Mears.  Mears has the tenth best Kansas DR at 88.2 and a category leading Ave Finish of 4.7.

The pick to win here is Jimmy Johnson.  Roush teams are good on the mile and a half tracks but Jimmy is the king.

Looking for other fantasy thoughts on this week’s Kansas action?  Check out Backstretch Motorsports’ Pure Stats for week 3 or go to Roto Experts for their take.  And check out Mike Maruska’s fantasy advice at One Bad Wheel.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

Why David Ragan Missed the Chase

 

Chase Round Two: Headin’ to Dover

(If you order 866-770-6928, DIRECTV will give you NASCAR Hot Pass for the rest of the season for only $29.95)

Awright NASCAR Fantasy geeks, don’t wait for some blogger with an agenda or worse - a NASCAR controlled TV talking head to tell you what Junior said to Junior.  Hear for yourself when Smoke tells his crew they suck.  Four different driver views, seven camera views per car, live driver-team audio with up to 13 team radios each week. Get it all for less than four bucks a race!  Get DIRECTV’s NASCAR Hot Pass right here!

One bad race has plenty of Kyle Busch backers jumping off the band wagon.  A broken bolt and a bad attitude made the once invincible looking Busch look anything but.

I wouldn’t count the Shrub out of the Chase yet however.  Then again, maybe I will.  I don’t like the signs of reemerging immaturity from the younger Busch.  He has never been in a Cup championship run before.  His reaction to the handling problems that cost him his chance at a good finish in the first Chase race wasn’t what one would call “grace under fire”. 

Even with the 34th place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle’s year-to-date Loop Driver Rating remains the series’ best at 109.7 and he has third best stats for the coming race at Dover International Raceway.  Average the two and he still tops the sheet - 108.3.   Busch has led fully 21 percent of all Sprint Cup Series laps run in 2008.  It’s to soon to say he’s choking.  But it is something to watch.

Does Biffle Carry the Big Mo?

Another driver to keep an eye on is Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle.  Not only did the Biff  win the first Chase race, but he holds top stats for Dover Downs too.  Biffle has Series beating stats in nine of the 16 Loop Data Box Score categories for Dover.  His Ave Position - 6.3 and Finish - 5.4 make sense when you see that he’s run 95.5 percent of the last seven Monster Mile races in the top 15.  His 393 Laps Led are second to Matt Kenseth’s 491.  He leads with 267 Fastest Laps and a Driver Rating of 116.1.

Besides Kyle Busch, only Carl Edwards - 104.5 -  has a higher Average Driver Rating for Dover and year-to-date  than Biffle 104.3.  Edwards finished third at Loudon behind Biffle and Jimmy Johnson.  Carl has the best Ave Finish for all of 2008 - 9.8, the most Fastest Laps and has run more Laps in the Top 15 than anyone - 77.9 percent  He’s been consistent and looked poised at New Hampshire. 

Winning Championships is Learned Behavior

And so did Jimmy Johnson.  But as the two-time defending Cup Champ,  he has been here before.  It wasn’t easy though.  The winner of the last two Chase’s came into the first two Chase playoff’s as one of the favorites.  He dominated the regular season races in 2004 and 2005 only to fail in the actual Chase itself.  Some things have to be learned.  Johnson did, but others have yet to prove they have. 

Johnson has been so good the last four years that his Loop stats are strong for nearly every track.  But his 2008 season-to-date numbers are third best overall too.  His combine Driver Rating is fourth for Dover at 103.3.  He doesn’t lead any categories but has three wins, four top fives and eight top tens.

A Field Full of Winners

Matt Kenseth, as said, has the second best Driver Rating for Dover and he’s had 11 top tens and six top fives to go with a win.  I just don’t like the team body language out of the No. 17.  They finished 40th at New Hampshire, through no real fault of Kenseth.  But as Matt said after the race, if they ran up front more, they wouldn’t get caught in other folks’ problems as much.  Not a winning combination right now.

Martin Truex Jr and Jeff Gordon are tied for the next best combined DR for Dover.  Truex got his first win here in 2007 and Gordon has four wins on the concrete mile.   Gordon also has five DNFs to go with 14 top fives and 19 top tens.  That no. 24 just hasn’t looked like much of a threat lately.  I’ll have to see something before I can pick Jeffy again.

Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Bucsh and Kenseth all join Gordon, Johnson and Edwards as past winners on the Monster Mile.  Stewart, Gordon and Johnson are the multiple winners.

I wrote about my thoughts on Stewart’s chances here.  Dale Junior is another who seems maybe to be feeling the heat.  He was in mid-meltdown mode Sunday over his radio with crew chief Tony Eury  when team owner Rick Hendrickcame on the line and cooled things down.  Junior’s stats for Dover aren’t eye popping but combined with his good overall 2008 numbers, his DR is a respectable 91.3.  I do think that Earnhardt will win a race or two in the Chase, but it’s going to be hard to predict.  And I won’t pick him here.

Jeff Burton just seems to be tough to pick anywhere.  He’s nearly always good, with terrific consistency.  But Dover is an anomaly for Burton.  The guy who nearly always finishes, has five Dover DNFs.  He has a combined DR of 90.1.

I’m going to go with the stats - and see if there is anything to this momentum stuff - I’ll take Greg Biffle to win.  The darkhorse rider this time is Ryan Newman.  Sixth best Dover DR - 99.7, third best Ave Finish of 8.3 and third most Laps in the Top 15.

If you sign up for DIRECTV you can add NASCAR Hot Pass for the rest of the season for only $29.95 or you can add Hot Pass to your existing Direct TV plan for the same $29.95. Sign up through our affiliate link here and save. For more information about Hot Pass call 877-770-6928.

 Photo credit: Icon Sports Mediia, Inc.

Next Page »

Copyright © 2008 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!