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Scouting Report: Richmond

How to make a good fantasy pick for Richmond

1) Look at past Richmond races. There’s plenty of Richmond stats for you to pour over. Don’t look back anymore then a few years. My absolute cut off line would be the first Richmond COT race.

2) It’s also important to look at recent results at similar tracks. Similar tracks to Richmond are New Hampshire and Phoenix. Bristol and Martinsville are also short tracks but there not similar Richmond.

3) Qualifying matters at Richmond. I’m not a race car mechanic but I do watch the races. I believe qualifying setups are not that much different than race setups. Richmond is also an impound race so it will matter even more.

4) I rank practice fourth in terms how you should go about making an informed fantasy pick this week.  Both Richmond practices will be run during the middle of the day and both are before qualifying.

Ten Drivers to Watch:

1) Kyle Busch - In the last four Richmond races Kyle Busch has two wins, one second place finish and one fifth place finish

2) Denny Hamlin – My long standing Denny Hamlin rule of thumb is… “If it’s short or flat pick Hamlin”.

3) Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s finished in the top ten at Richmond in all but one race since 2005. Last spring Harvick finished 3rd to Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon.

4) Jeff Gordon – Kyle’s main competitor last spring and he won at Phoenix just a few months ago.

5) Ryan Newman – He’s truly a natural Richmond racer. In his first two starts here he finished second. In sixteen races at Richmond Newman’s only finished outside the top 15 four times.

6) Clint Bowyer – When Dale Jr. and Kyle Busch parted in 2008 he visited victory lane. Last fall he won at New Hampshire (similar track).

7) Jimmie Johnson – Either a hero or a zero. Been racing like a hero lately.

8 ) Carl Edwards – He’s been good everywhere lately and last spring he finished fifth.

9 ) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – This is his best traditional short track. If he’s going to win a race soon now’s his best chance until July.

10) Tony Stewart – Smoke hasn’t been on fire lately at Richmond. In his last three starts he’s finished 16th, 17th and 23rd. Before that three race span he finished in the top four in four consecutive races.Tony Stewart was a contender at Phoenix in February.

TheSpread.com Odds to win:

Carl Edwards 6/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Denny Hamlin 8/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Clint Bowyer 15/1, Matt Kenseth 15/1, Kurt Busch 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Coke Zero 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	1	6.9
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	14	8.9
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	9.9
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	1	10.3
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	28	10.5
Dennis Mickelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	1	11.1
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jamie McMurray	11	12.4
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Ryan Newman	20	12.7
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	1	12.7
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	28	13.9
Eric Brewer		Mark Martin	38	14
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	No Pick	44	14.8
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	28	15.4
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	14	16
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch	14	16.2
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	14	17
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	14	17.7

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Lenox Industrial Tools 301 from Loudon

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmy Johnson	9	7.3
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmy Johnson	9	8.6
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Kurt Busch	3	9.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	2	10.4
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	2	10.9
Dennis Mickelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	19	11.7
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	David Reutimann	4	12.3
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Tony Stewart	5	12.4
Eric Brewer		Denny Hamlin	15	12.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	5	12.9
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	3	13
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	3	13.4
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	29	14.6
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Tony Stewart	5	16.1
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Tony Stewart	5	16.4
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	17.2
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	17.9

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Coca Cola 600 at Lowes Motorspeedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	13	7.9
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	19	8.9
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	19	10.2
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	17	10.4
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	13	11.4
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Jeff Gordon	14	11.5
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	14	11.5
Eric Brewer		Jimmie Johnson	13	11.8
Gerrit Ritt	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	13	12.3
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	19	13.6
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	2	13.7
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	13	14.4
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brian Vickers	5	16.8
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Jeff Burton	25	17.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	14	17.8
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Tony Stewart	19	19.2
Eric McClung	KFFL Fantasy NASCAR Blog	Mark Martin	17	19.6

One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing News: Shelby 427

don’t tell me you watched the academy awards? Race two is a wrap. The California race was long. And wet. And a good reason to use the remote. Eleven left in the One and Done Spring Thing - the first of three games in the 2009 One and Done season. We’ll finish this one at the race in Dover. Then, you win stuff and cinch those belts back up and do it again for thirteen more races. You get more prizes and then play the grand finale - the Chase for the One and Done Cup. So tell your friends to sign up. After all, you’re a veteran at this now.

race 3: the shelby 427 Welcome to the home of the Rat Pack,bad Robert De niro movies and the  Busch brothers of NASCAR. Four players picked Auto Club 500 winner Matt Kenseth last week and those guys are all near the top of the points.  Good job  - you lucky dogs. Who ‘ya gonna take this week, when Matty might just set a record for winning the first three One and Done races in history.? He might set a NASCAR record too. You can view all the results for One and Done week two here. next week: hot’lanta Lets talk prizes.  You all should know that the winner of the One and Done Spring Thing will receive a Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure package, good at several NASCAR tracks, including Talladega Superspeedway. You can read the experience of one of our past winners at that track right here. The top ten finishers will win prizes in each game. I will have the details on those other prizes finalized this week. I think you’ll be happy with the possibilities. Stay tuned. We’re also considering having a weekly prize, so that new players or players who miss making a pick for whatever reason, will still have a chance to win something. If we do the weekly award, it will be determined via the random drawing method.

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experts Every week we’ll ask a few folks from around the NASCAR internet community to share who they think would be a good pick for the next race. Dustin Long NASCAR beat writer for the  Landmark Newspapers likes the Biff. ” Got a feeling for Greg Biffle  as the winner. Roush makes it 3 in a row. Also, keep an eye on the #48. Let’s see how the #88 responds also.” Veteran ARCA RE/MAX Series driver Brad Smith thinks it’s cousin Carl this time…”I just think the #99 is due. He’s been good and I just have a feeling that this is his week.” Fast and Fabulous Valli is in the #24’s corner…”I think Jeff Gordon will take the win at LVMS because after coming close to the win in California, he was passionate, excited and pumped up about his team’s potential. I think a win for him is just around the corner.” Backstretch Motorsports’ Bram is a history buff…” This week at Vegas will Matt Kenseth get #3?…if he does he’ll be defying an awful lot of odds stacked against him in the history books. But it’s time for another new record to be written and this team has been on fire, so I say Kenseth gets his name in the record books and leaves Vegas with the jackpot.” Thunder Lounge king Luke remembers last year… “Ah Vegas. A city that seemingly has everything. While it doesn’t have Shakespeare’s this year it has another Columbia favorite on loan. Carl Edwards. When the tough get going Sunday, he’ll be out to prove that his oil lid is locked down tight.”

One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing News: Auto Club 500

are you gettin’ the hang of this yet? Race one is done. Twelve to go in the One and Done Spring Thing - the first of three games in the 2009 One and Done seasons. This game goes through the race at Dover. We’ll pass out the prizes, cinch those belts back up and do it again for thirteen more races. We’ll hand out more prizes and then play the grand finale - the Chase for the One and Done Cup. So tell your friends to sign up. After all, you’re a veteran at this now.

race 2: auto club 500 Mark Martin was the most popular pick in week one. Fully 17 players took the veteran. That front row starting position may have convinced some that Martin was the man finally, at Daytona. Lots of you liked Jeff Gordon too. But nobody had the 500 winner Matt Kenseth. So the One and Done points leaders this week were the three players who chose Kevin Harvick. Nicely done. You can view all the results for One and Done week one here. next week: vegas baby Lets talk prizes.  You all should know that the winner of the One and Done Spring Thing will receive a Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure package, good at several NASCAR tracks, including Talladega Superspeedway. You can read the experience of one of our past winners at that track right here. The top ten finishers will win prizes in each game. I will have the details on those other prizes finalized this week. I think you’ll be happy with the possibilities. Stay tuned. We’re also considering having a weekly prize, so that new players or players who miss making a pick for whatever reason, will still have a chance to win something. If we do the weekly award, it will be determined via the random drawing method.

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experts Every week we’ll ask a few folks from around the NASCAR internet community to share who they think would be a good pick for the next race. Fancy Clance’ of Church of the Great Oval sees Smoke in the future saying “I am calling Tony Stewart. His Astro-Aspects for the day are full of Uranus, Mars and Trines, which signify quick thinking, agression and balance in all. OK. OnPitRow photo-jockey BethAnne likes Kyle Busch. “He won the Nationwide race last summer and the Truck race in the spring. His racing this year has been strong. The time is right for him to add the Cup race to his list. NASCAR Bits’ Bruce thinks this is easy…”This is an easy one. Jimmy Johnson OWNS this track. With finishing positions of 1,2,1,3,11 & 2 in his last few races, they’ve got a top three locked up.” The Catfish - Matt Mercer - likes AJ Allmendinger…”best to go ahead and ride the momentum of AJ’s 3rd place run at Daytona this week. ‘Dinger’s from the west coast, runs well on bigger tracks, and could very well contend for another top finish. He’s my pick of the week.” Our Scottish Racer pal Bram likes McMurray. I think. “I like Jamie McMurray as a dark horse here..and something tells me to watch for the better finish from Allmendinger..seeking sponsorship after a humbling off-season tends to boost one’s abilities..if you get my drift.”

BethAnne Does ‘Dega

A year ago on February 21st I attended the Dale Jarrett Racing Adventure at Talladega Superspeedway. I won the 3 lap ride through our fantasy racing game and upgraded it to 6 lap drive.

Coming up on the anniversary of the event, I was looking fondly at the pictures taken and was surprised to see thatthe instructors and counselors in the pictures all seemed to be as into working there as much as we enjoyed playing there. This realization added a new level of fun to the whole experience and I will always remember it fondly. As I said to one of my buddies yesterday, Yes, I would do it again in a heartbeat!

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

The Differnce Between Sure Things and WAGs

I was actually going to take this space to recap my picks during the recent 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup. The idea came from a sense of obligation - a need to fess up and face my results. But to rehash those predictions after the fact would be…boring. I did get a few right - Greg Biffle at Dover, Jimmy Johnson at Kansas and Carl Edwards at Homestead.

But I missed on seven. As I’ve said before, follow the advice you find here at your own risk. If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

The sure things at OnPitRow.com are the terrific writing by a staff of dedicated NASCAR observers and some of the easiest contests to win anywhere. In the last month, we’ve given out thirty some Kevin Harvick bobbleheads, courtesy of Shell gasolines, dozens of hats and diecasts and, as of Friday, five copies of A & E Home Video’s new  DALE EARNHARDT 10 GREATEST WINS .

My fantasy picks are more than wild guesses. I spend way too much time trying to make the right choices. But if you’re looking for a “lead-pipe cinch”, bet that OnPitRow.com and  ON PIT ROW - “the fastest two hours on radio” will have a bunch of new features and more cool stuff to give away as we get closer to Speedweeks.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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