• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Fantasy Racing
• Contact Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Scouting Report: New Hampshire

How to make an informed pick for the New Hampshire Sylvania 300

1) The most important thing I would really focus on this week in the process of making an informed fantasy pick is to really study New Hampshire track history. New Hampshire is a “skill track”. The driver is the most important variable this week, not a teams aero department. Since this is a skill track drivers average finishes are extremely valuable fantasy information.

2) For New Hampshire I would strongly suggest you study recent results/ performances at similar tracks. The two similar tracks I would study are Phoenix and Richmond. Both of these tracks have data that can cross over for this weekends race at the Magic Mile.

3) Practice is important every week. In practice you really want a driver who says their car drives good. A good driving car at New Hampshire is a fast car.

4) Qualifying is important but it’s not the most important variable this week. During pit stops at New Hampshire lots of pit strategy will be taking place as drivers seek to get precious track position. Look for gas and goes and two tire pit stops to be frequent. The bottom line at New Hampshire is that the strong always get to the front.

Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Sylvania 300:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a three time winner who last won at New Hampshire in 2010. Earlier this year Johnson finished 5th and led 19 laps. Johnson started 28th and passed more cars then anyone (93). Jimmie has an average finish of 10th and a average start of 11th. This is Chase time and that means it’s “Jimmie time”.

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is a two time winner at New Hampshire. In July he finished second in what was Stewart- Haas Racing’s first one-two finish. Stewart has been extremely competitive here recently. In two out of the last three New Hampshire races he’s finished second. In the one race he didn’t finish second he was in the lead until he ran out of gas in the closing laps relegating him to a 24th place finish (led 100 laps). Stewart has led laps in the last eight consecutive races at New Hampshire (414 laps over last eight races).

Jeff Gordon – Now’s not the time to hop off the Jeff Gordon momentum bandwagon. He’s a three time New Hampshire winner (last in 1998) who’s only finished outside the top fifteen once since 2004. He should’ve won the 2009 race but Logano was aided by rain. Richmond (best car) and Phoenix (won) are similar tracks so there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat in the Sylvania 300.

Kevin Harvick – All RCR cars missed the setup at New Hampshire earlier this year. That really concerns me. His Richmond win was huge though in terms of inspiring fantasy NASCAR confidence for me. He also performed admirably at Phoenix in February and finished 4th with a damaged car. Before his 21st place finish in July Harvick had two consecutive 5th place finishes. Harvick won the New Hampshire Chase opening race in 2006.

Kurt Busch – Earlier this year Kurt Busch led 66 laps and finished 10th. On the last lap of the regular season race he was running in fifth before he ran out of gas. Since 2008 Kurt Busch has an average finish of 6th, a mid race average running position of 6th, and an average running position of 7th. The bottom line about Kurt Busch is that he’s always near the front of the pack.

VegasInsider.com odds to win at Loudon:

Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 7/1, Jeff Gordon 7/1, Brad Keselowski 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Ryan Newman 14/1, Kurt Busch 16/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Tony Stewart 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Kevin Harvick 7)Carl Edwards 8)Kyle Busch 9)Kurt Busch 10)Matt Kenseth

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Sylvania 300 Pre Race Loop Data Book
• 5 Year New Hampshire Averages
• Similar Track Averages
• Entry List
• Schedule of events

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500

Sunday will be the final time a race will be held at Phoenix International Raceway before its repaving and reconfiguration, which will begin after the Subway Fresh Fit 500 is completed. When the Sprint Cup series comes back here in November, drivers will find a wider front-stretch and a reconfigured dogleg turn. PIR President has stated, ”We are thrilled with the design. … This race has always been pretty pivotal in crowning our Sprint Cup champion, and in this case, the notes from the previous races are not going to be worth much. It’s going to be a whole new game.” On Sunday, though, you can expect familiar faces up front.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…Last November, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson were fighting for the championship with just two races to go. Carl Edwards started from the pole and stayed in the top five all day, getting the win and ending his 70-race winless streak. Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top five. Hamlin led the most laps that day but had to pit late for fuel, as did Juan Montoya when he was running 2nd.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Forget about last week. If you escaped Daytona with a solid week, good job. If most of your drivers wrecked, don’t worry: there’s a lot of people in that boat. Onto the next week. At Phoenix, make sure you pay attention to average practice speeds as well as who gets the pole. Only one driver outside of the top ten in average practice speeds last fall at Phoenix finished worse than 15th and two of the last three pole winners here have gone on to win the race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - There is no reason that “The Champ” shouldn’t be near the top of everyone’s lists going into the race this weekend; Jimmie is the best driver here and this is his best track (statistically). Johnson has led more laps here than anyone in the series–including Mark Martin (who has raced in 13 more races at Phoenix than his Hendrick Motorsports teammate). JJ has an astounding average finish of 4.93 here (over 15 career races) with a worst finish of 15th. Surprisingly, “Five-Time” has only one pole win here, though. You can still expect Chad Knaus to give Jimmie a good car, though. Since 2006, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 5th at Phoenix.

2. Carl Edwards - The Cup Series points leader is the most recent winner of this track and in the past three points-paying races (going back to last year) his finishes have been 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Over the past two years at Phoenix (four races), Cousin Carl hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has amassed three top tens. In his career, Edwards has 10 top tens in 13 races and an average finish of 11.9. In 2007, he won the pole and led 87 of the first 125 laps before his engine blew, giving him a finish of 42nd. There is no reason we shouldn’t see the 99 car up front again this week.

3. Mark Martin - First off, can you believe Mark came back from three laps down last week to get a top ten at Daytona? Me neither. Phoenix has been Martin’s second-best track over his career and he has finished outside of the top twenty just once in his 28 starts here (a DNF in 1988–his first start here). Since coming to Hendrick, Mark has had finishes of 1st, 4th, 4th, and 8th. Since 1989, Martin has completed all but one lap at Phoenix.

4. Jeff Gordon - Hendrick Motorsports teams are just pretty good at this flat track. You won’t see Gordon leading a bunch of laps (he has led in just one of his past seven starts here), but he has shown that he can get a solid finish. Gordon has 21 total top 20’s in his 24 career starts here, and 17 of those have been top tens. He also has the best average start in the Cup series at Phoenix.

5. Denny Hamlin - I’ve learned to keep Hamlin in my mind whenever the boys race at a flat track, and Phoenix has been a good track for him. As I stated before, Hamlin led the most laps last time at Phoenix but didn’t get the win because he had to hit pit road late so he didn’t run out of fuel. Denny has started eleven races in the Sprint Cup series at Phoenix, and has finished worse than 16th only twice. He has never won here, but Hamlin has finished 3rd four times at this track.

6. Kurt Busch - He didn’t accomplish the trifecta at Daytona, but Kurt Busch still left with a top five and a fourth-place points position. In his last five Phoenix starts, Busch has led laps in four of them (and earned top tens in those four races as well). He has only nine top tens in sixteen career starts here, but since 2008 it seems like Busch has figured this track out more and become more consistent. If he starts worse than 15th, though, I wouldn’t pick him (only one top ten in those five starts).

7. Jeff Burton - Burton’s last two finishes at Phoenix have been sub-par (19th and 25th), but he has still been very consistent here: since 1996 he has finished outside of the top 20 only once. Since 1998, Burton has finished on the lead lap in every races. You won’t see the 31 near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, but that hasn’t mattered over the years. With two wins at the track, Jeff definitely knows how to maneuver around this three-turn flat track.

8. Juan Montoya - If it wasn’t for a shortage of fuel, Montoya would be on a three-race streak of top tens at Phoenix. Last fall, while running 2nd, the 42 car had to pit under green to avoid running out of fuel. He ended up finishing a disappointing 16th. Juan has ended up in the top 20 in 75% of his starts at Phoenix International Raceway. In the April race in 2010, Montoya led 104 laps and came away with a top five.

9. Joey Logano - Sliced Bread’s first two starts at Phoenix yielded disappointing finishes (21st in both), but the young gun has gotten used to this track since then. Last year he got his first top ten here after starting sixth, and last fall Logano ended up 3rd. He has never led a lap here, but after this Sunday that could change.

10. Kyle Busch - Over the past four races at Phoenix, Rowdy has the third-best driver rating (behind Johnson and Martin). However, like at Daytona last week, he hasn’t been able to get the finish in those races. He hasn’t been terrible, but the finishes don’t match the driver rating. In the past four races, Kyle has finished 13th, 8th, 12th, and 17th. He has just two finishes outside of the top 20 in twelve career starts. Busch has won here before but usually finishes between 7th and 13th.

11. Greg Biffle - The Biff has been surprisingly consistent over the fast few years at Phoenix. He finihed 4th in the fall race last year after his sub-par 22nd in the spring race. Over the past eight races here, Biffle hasn’t finished worse than that 22nd last spring and has four top tens in those eight starts. He won’t run up front all day (he’s only led at least one lap in one of the past nine races) but you should expect him to finish on the lead lap.

12. Tony Stewart -Statistically, “Smoke” is the fifth-best driver at flat tracks with average finish of 11.4. At Phoenix, it isn’t much different as he has an average finish of 12th in 18 career starts. In his first start here, he won after starting 11th and went on to record seven top tens in the next eleven races at Phoenix. I will tell you to watch Stewart closely, though: his previous three finishes have been 17th, 23rd, and 25th.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex is going to live up to the type that everyone has placed on him this year, he’s going to need to do good at his best tracks. Phoenix is his third best track statistically with an average finish of 15.6 in ten career starts. In the November 2008 race, he finished dead last after an overheating problem, but other than that his worst finish has been 22nd. While driving the #1 Chevy for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Truex grabbed the pole and earned a 5th place finish in the November 2009 race at PIR.

14. Kevin Harvick - Happy probably isn’t too happy after blowing an engine at Daytona, but he should be able to get a decent finish this week. In sixteen career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins and seven top tens. During his magical 2010 season, he finished 13th in the April race and 6th in the November race while challenging for the championship. He usually does better in the fall race here, so make sure you watch him in practice this weekend.

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If Junior is going to prove to people that he can actually drive a car, he needs to start getting the finishes. At Daytona last week, he was near the front before having to pit and go to the back of the pack. He was then caught up in a wreck, ruining his chances of winning. Little E has won at Phoenix twice before, and last year he finished 12th and 14th. He’s usually hit-or-miss at Phoenix, so be careful if you are going to pick him. He has ten top 20s in 17 starts here, but five finishes of 30th or worse as well.

Underdogs Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose has been decent at Phoenix his whole career. He has two 11th place finishes to his credit, and hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in five starts here. He drives the 9 car for Richard Petty Motorsports, which is the same car that Aric Almirola qualified 9th with in the November race here at Phoenix.

David Reutimann - Reutty has two top tens at this track, and both came in 2009. His average finish here is 19.9, so don’t expect a top ten, but if he can get a good starting spot and find the right setup for the race, he could be a surprise come Sunday.

A.J. Allmendinger - Like Ambrose, Allmendinger has been very consistent at Phoenix. He has been pretty good at qualifying, too, starting 2nd and 1st in his past two starts here. In five starts at PIR, The Dinger has four finishes between 13th and 18th.

Bobby Labonte - He started off the first season with his new team with a great showing at Daytona, and he could get a solid top 20 this weekend with them. Labonte ended up 20th last year while driving the 09 car for Phoenix Racing and back when he drove for Petty has just one finish outside of the top twenty in six starts. With–arguably–his best equipment in years, Bobby could surprise people this year.

Those To Avoid Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Regan Smith - He proved me wrong last week in Daytona, but you won’t find him on my rosters this week, either. In five starts at Phoenix, Smith hasn’t finished better than 23rd, but he has started in the top ten twice.

Paul Menard - If you are looking for a driver that will give you a mid-20’s finish, go with Menard, but don’t expect much more. He has eight starts at Phoenix International Raceway, but hasn’t finished better than 21st–or worse than 29th.

Brian Vickers - His return to racing didn’t go as well as he planned, and I don’t expect Vickers’ season to suddenly turn around at Phoenix. His past four starts here have produced three finishes of 38th or worse, and while he has one top fife here (in 2005), that is also his only top ten.

Brad Keselowski - BK has a 16th-place finish to his credit at Phoenix, but his other two starts ended in 42nd and 37th-place finishes. His 42nd came in last year’s fall race, where he hit the wall early and couldn’t recover.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Daytona 500

The start of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season is just around the corner and that can mean only one thing: it’s time to go racing at Daytona! The 53rd “Great American Race” will take place Sunday afternoon on Fox after an entire week of racing–from the Budweiser Shootout last Saturday, to the Gatorade Duels on Thursday, to practice sessions before race day. The Daytona 500 has the most pre-race information (practice and short races), yet it is one of the most difficult to predict in terms of fantasy racing.

Hendrick Motorsports teammates Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Gordon grabbed the front row in qualifying on Sunday for the big race. Junior has never started from the pole for a points-paying race at Daytona, but started from the pole last Saturday in the Shootout (finishing 19th) as well as the Gatorade Duel #2 last year (finishing 21st). The rest of the starting lineup for the Daytona 500 will be determined on Thursday by the results of the Twin-125 Gatorade Duels.

My recommendation to fantasy racers: Watch the Twin-125 races and see how the cars race; practice speeds are pretty much useless at Daytona when determining how the race will end up. Once you pick your drivers, submit them and enjoy the race. Restrictor-plate races are so unpredictable that it is better to look forward to next week in terms of fantasy games.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Daytona 500:

1. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is the favored driver to win the big race this year and for good reason: he’s the most recent winner here and has three top tens in the past four races at the track. Harvick finished 7th in the Bud Shootout, but don’t let that worry you: he kept hitting his rev limiter, a problem which he has stated is fixed. With one DNF in 19 Daytona starts, it’s hard to go against Kevin Harvick at the plate tracks, and he was one of the best in 2010.

2. Clint Bowyer - Richard Childress Racing has been favored all week (and it was a surprise to many when one of their four drivers didn’t get the pole). Bowyer has made ten starts at Daytona, and while his highest finish has been 4th, Clint has never finished lower than 29th–resulting in 0 DNFs. Over the past two years, Bowyer has recorded two 4th-place finishes in the Daytona 500.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth might not be the first driver you think of at Daytona, but over the past two years he has been the best. Over those four races, he has an average finish of 8th has finished outside of the top ten only once (15th in last season’s July race). He won’t be fighting for the lead every lap, but Kenseth usually stays out of trouble and gets a good finish at Daytona.

4. Kurt Busch - New car, new year. Kurt started off 2011 right by winning the Budweiser Shootout, but don’t expect a win in the “Great American Race”: the last time the Bud Shootout winner went on to win the following Sunday was in 1997 (Jeff Gordon). Still, Busch should be expected to finish up front. He’s had the best average driver rating over the past four Daytona races and has finished outside of the top ten only once in the past seven.

5. Carl Edwards - Roush-Fenway Racing really started to perform as expected during the second half of the year in 2010, and Carl Edwards ended last season winning the final two races. Cousin Carl has been finished every lap (in points-paying races) at Daytona since 2007, which can be difficult to achieve over eight races here. He usually finishes better in the July Race here, but last season Edwards finally got his first top ten in the Daytona 500. This year, with the right timing, he could easily get his first top five.

6. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” had an off-year at Daytona in 2010, but don’t expect the disappointing finishes to continue. Going into 2010, Stewart had nine top tens in his last twelve starts at the track and in his twelve Daytona 500 starts, he has led at least one lap in eight of them–and those eight have come in his most recent nine starts.

7. Jeff Gordon - Gordon usually runs well at Daytona (6th best driver rating over the past four races), but his finishes have been lacking. He has just one top ten in the past three years here, but don’t let that turn you away from the 24 car: Gordon has won at Daytona six times. You know he will have the power to get to the front, but will he be in the right place at the right time? He starts 2nd, so he’s off to a good start already. Gordon has just 4 DNFs in 36 career starts.

8. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin sat on the pole for last year’s “Great American Race” and ended up finishing 12th. He wound up finishing three of the four restrictor plate races in the top twelve in 2010. Since coming to Hendrick Motorsports, Martin has finished 16th and 12th in the Daytona 500. I expect a top ten finish on Sunday from him if he can stay out of trouble.

9. Kyle Busch - When you look at Rowdy’s average finish in Daytona races recently, this ranking may surprise you, but if he can stay out of trouble, the younger Busch brother should finish up front on Sunday. He has the second-best driver rating in the past two years at Daytona (behind his brother) but an average finish of 27.25 to back it up. When Kyle stays out of trouble, he does good at Daytona–all of his top tens are also top fives and he won here in the 2008 July race.

10. Jamie McMurray - This may be one of the lower rankings you see McMurray at for this race, but I’m still not sold on him. He followed up his Daytona 500 win last year with a 39th-place showing in July. Jamie Mac’s average finish was 26.5 between his July Daytona win in 2007 and his Daytona 500 win last year (four races). He has, however, been very good at Daytona with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, with finishes of 2nd and 3rd in the last two Budweiser Shootouts (respectfully) and he ended up in 6th in his Gatorade Duel race last year.

11. Jeff Burton - He’s not as strong as two of his teammates at Daytona, but you know that Burton has the horsepower to get a good finish. Will he, though? In 34 career starts, Burton has amassed 23 top twenties, but only 9 of them were top tens. He looked strong in qualifying, but we all know that qualifying is not a way to predict the race at restrictor plate tracks.

12. Juan Montoya - If JPM gets a good starting position for “The Great American Race”, expect a good finish to back it up. He has started in the top fourteen in three races at Daytona, and finished there as well in those races. Montoya has two top tens in his last three Daytona starts.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This ranking may surprise you as well, but winning the pole for the Daytona 500 doesn’t guarantee a good finish: the past three pole winners have gone on to finish 12th, 11th, and 27th. Earnhardt, Jr. also has a little streak going. In 2006, he was good at Daytona with finishes of 8th and 13th. The next year (2007) he finished 32nd and 36th. After that season, he went to Hendrick Motorsports and ended up with two top tens in Daytona for them. His second year (2009) there, though, he ended up 27th and 39th in the two Daytona races. Last year, Junior posted top five finishes in both Daytona races. Will this year be bad for the 88 at Daytona, or will he break his little streak that he is on?

14. Denny Hamlin - Like his teammate, Kyle Busch, Hamlin has ran well at Daytona in the past two seasons but didn’t get the finishes to back it up. Over those past four races, Hamlin has had the 6th best driver rating but recorded only one top ten (a 3rd in the July race in 2009). Despite having only one top ten in his career at Daytona, Denny has never had a DNF. He almost won the Budweiser Shootout this year.

15. Brian Vickers - The Red Bull Racing driver would be ranked higher if it wasn’t for his absence from racing last year because of medical reasons. However, if he wants to show everyone that the missed races aren’t a big deal, Daytona is a great place to start: Vickers has finished in the top fifteen in four of his last five starts here.

Underdogs Entering The Daytona 500:

David Ragan - He hasn’t been very good in the Sprint Cup series, but for some reason he has finished well at Daytona. Ragan has eight starts here and six of them have ended up in finishes in the top sixteen. His very first Daytona 500 start ended with a 5th-place finish.

Paul Menard - Menard is at RCR this year and nearly grabbed a spot on the front row in qualifying last Sunday. He has seven career starts at Daytona and all but one of them have given him a finish in the top 23. He ended up 13th in last year’s “Great American Race” driving for Richard Petty Motorsports.

David Reutimann - It may be a surprise to some, but the Michael Waltrip Racing star is pretty good at restrictor plate tracks. In 2010 he recorded two top fives in the four races and had a worst finish of 14th. Reutty has finished worse than 12th only once in his past four starts at Daytona.

Trevor Bayne - The rookie nearly took the pole for the Daytona 500 and looked pretty good in his Cup debut last year (finishing 17th at Texas). He’s driving the 21 car for Wood Brothers Racing, which was driven to a 27th place finish in last year’s Daytona 500 by Bill Elliott.

Those To Avoid Entering The Daytona 500:

Jimmie Johnson - “The Champ” isn’t very good at Daytona in February, believe it or not. Since his Daytona 500 win in 2006, Johnson hasn’t finished better than 27th in “The Great American Race”. Statistically, this is his fourth-worst track.

Ryan Newman - Like Johnson, “Flyin’ Ryan” hasn’t been the same since his win at this track (coming in the 2008 Daytona 500 with Penske Racing). His best finish since then has been 20th, and while driving for Stewart-Haas Racing, that has been his best finish in four starts with them here.

Martin Truex, Jr. - He may be ranked high in some people’s minds after his 6th-place finish in the Daytona 500 last year, but don’t let that fool you: it has been his only top ten in eleven career starts here.

Brad Keselowski - He may be good at Talladega, but this is Daytona. In three career starts here, he hasn’t finished better than 24th and has only completed only 85.8% of the laps run here since joining Penske.

Is Tony Stewart Afraid of Monsters?

Do you suppose that Michael Waltrip and Bobby Labonte look nervously beneath their haulers when in Delaware, thinking they heard something go bump in the night?

If they do, you couldn’t blame them.  Dover Downs might be haunted by the ghost of someone the’ve wronged, given the performance of those guys on the Monster Mile these last three years.

No driver who has competed in the last seven Dover races has lower overall NASCAR Loop Data stats than Waltrip.  Only Waltrip, Labonte, Robby Gordon and Joe Nemechek show worse than Stewart. 

The Home Depot No. 20fought back to finish eigth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  This time, Stewart apologized to his team for problems ON PiT ROW …

“Sorry, guys,” he radioed his team

Last week it was a mistake in the pits and this week it was a mistake on the driver’s part,” Stewart said. “We had some bad luck and then I made our problem worse with the speeding penalty.”

But this year, it’s always something - not just with the No. 20 but withMatt Kenseth’s No. 17 as well.  Kenseth got tangled with Chad McCumbee on lap 230 and finished 40th.

“If we would have been running where Greg (Biffle) and Carl (Edwards) were running, we wouldn’t have got wrecked to start with, so I always feel it’s partially your fault,” Kenseth said. “Even though we got caught up in somebody else’s mess, if we would have been running better, we would have been ahead of their mess.”

Kenseth has the second best Loop Driver Rating for Dover, just south of Loudon winner, Greg Biffles’s.  But that can’t cover the team’s current struggles and the driver’s apparent lack of team confidence.

I don’t know if Stewart or Waltrip are really looking under the proverbial bed for Dover track gremlins, but Dale Eanhardt Jr was acting like an X-Files devotee according to Rick Hendrick…

Earnhardt said he was tired of his car’s handling and then suggested someone was tampering with his tires and said the team needed to beef up security. That’s when Hendrick got on the radio to calm him down and suggested Junior “take a deep breath.”

It isn’t a good sign though, that Hendrick had to get on the horn to settle Junior down.  That should be Tony Eury Jr’s responsibility.

“We’ve got to be right there in striking distance,” Hendrick said. “He’s got so much talent and they’ve been doing things the way they do them for a long, long time. I’m just trying to give them some old man experience. A little more focus, think about what the car’s doing, give Tony the feedback and we’ll make the right adjustments.”

Kevin Harvick’s  Ave Finish in the Dover Loop era is only 22.4 and he has led exactly zero laps.  That’s 491 less than Kenseth, who tops the stat.  The Monster hasn’t been very good to Kasey Kahne either with an Ave Finish of 24.3 and a Driver Rating of 69.8.

Thanks to FoxSports.com for the quotes.  And Icon Sports Media for the photo.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

So the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set, the 12 drivers involved have made their compulsory David Letterman Show appearance, and we’re set for ten weeks of the finest racing NASCAR has to offer.

We start at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, not always the most entertaining track, but perhaps the most vital in the Chase. Of the four drivers to win at Loudon since the Chase era began in 2004, none has ever finished worse than sixth in points that year. With that in mind, expect a Chase driver to win this weekend; the question is, which one?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this weekend at Loudon:

1. Kyle Busch: Kyle is usually better at Loudon in the summer (average finish of 10.3 in four starts) than he is in the fall (average finish of 23.0 in three starts). However, in three Car of Today starts at the track, his average finish is 13.3 with one top 5 finish, and his summer race this year was sabotaged by the front bumper of Juan Pablo Montoya.

2. Carl Edwards: Surprisingly, one second place finish in summer 2006 comprises Cousin Carl’s only top 10 finish at Loudon. On the other hand, Edwards’ worst finish at the track was 20th in fall 2004, in only his fifth career Cup start. In eight career starts, he’s only failed to complete one lap (in 2004). Edwards won’t get you a win, most likely, but he’s a sure bet for a solid finish.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t won a race at New Hampshire since he swept both events in 2003. That being said, he also has never failed to finish a race at the track, only getting caught up in one accident two years ago that put him down 67 laps. His average finish in the COT is a whopping 6.7, and his average finish at the track overall is a solid 10.5. Expect Johnson to challenge for a win, especially given the hot streak he’s been on lately.

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior led 29 laps here in the summer, 68 last year in subpar Dale Earnhardt Inc. equipment, and 120 at the fall race in 2003. He’s capable of running well at Loudon, even if his average finish in COT races here is only 14.7. The only reason Junior finished in 24th here this summer was because of a pit road accident with Jamie McMurray, when Junior forgot to signal that he was entering the pits and McMurray plowed into his car. Look for another decent run.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint won this race last year after leading 222 laps. It was his first career Sprint Cup victory, and it put to rest criticism that he made the 2007 Chase without any race wins. Clint then went on to finish third overall last year. He was also fastest in Cup practice on Friday. However, his average finish in his other four career starts at NHMS is 27.5. Bowyer will either be a boom or a bust this weekend.

6. Denny Hamlin: For starters, in five career New Hampshire starts, Denny has never failed to finish the race. His average finish of 6.8 is buoyed by one win and four top 10s in those races, with his worst finish being 15th at this race last year. Count on a top finish.

7. Jeff Burton: You can’t go wrong with any driver who once led every lap of a race in the modern era, and Burton led every lap of this race in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, in 9 starts, his average finish was 4.7 with four wins. Since joining RCR, Burton’s average finish is a solid if not spectacular 11.1, and RCR cars have won at New Hampshire in the fall the past two years. Seeing Burton in Victory Lane again this weekend shouldn’t be a stretch.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke should have won at Loudon in the summer, until the racing gods decided to smile upon nemesis Kurt Busch instead. Factoring in a win instead of his eventual 13th place finish would make Tony’s average COT finish at New Hampshire a whopping 5.3. Since 2004, he’s led 620 of 2692 possible laps in Cup starts at the track, and was .292 seconds away from sweeping both 2005 races. Tony should break his winless drought this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Save for three top 5 finishes accrued in his excellent 2005 season and the summer 2006 race, Biffle hasn’t been all that impressive at New Hampshire. Da Biff has an average finish of 19.5 overall at Loudon, but it’s only 20.4 in the fall races. Worse still, Biffle’s average finish in the COT at Loudon is 21.7. Yikes.

10. Jeff Gordon: Since the COT was first run at New Hampshire last year, Gordon has scored the most points at the track of any Chase driver, with 475. He has finished in the top 10 15 out of 27 times he’s started at New Hampshire, and has three wins at the track. Count on a solid finish.

11. Kevin Harvick: Happy won this race in 2006 on the way to a fourth place finish in points. Since 2003, Harvick has never finished outside of the top 20 at Loudon in the fall, with his worst finish being 17th last year. Harvick also led 54 laps in the summer race.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth himself said last week at Richmond that Roush Fenway cars aren’t too good at Loudon, and he backed it up by ranking 39th out of 45 on Friday’s speed chart. However, he’s also the seventh best driver of all-time in the COT era at the track. In 17 career starts at Loudon, Kenseth’s average finish is 10.9, and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at the track in over six years.

So who would I pick? Stewart, of course. Not only is Smoke overdue for a win, highly competitive at New Hampshire, and moderately fast in practice (13th overall), but he’s got a monkey on his back after (in his opinion) throwing away a win last week at Richmond. Expect Tony to make amends this week.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

Copyright © 2012 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!