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Is Tony Stewart Afraid of Monsters?

September 15, 2008

Do you suppose that Michael Waltrip and Bobby Labonte look nervously beneath their haulers when in Delaware, thinking they heard something go bump in the night?

If they do, you couldn’t blame them.  Dover Downs might be haunted by the ghost of someone the’ve wronged, given the performance of those guys on the Monster Mile these last three years.

No driver who has competed in the last seven Dover races has lower overall NASCAR Loop Data stats than Waltrip.  Only Waltrip, Labonte, Robby Gordon and Joe Nemechek show worse than Stewart. 

The Home Depot No. 20fought back to finish eigth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  This time, Stewart apologized to his team for problems ON PiT ROW …

“Sorry, guys,” he radioed his team

Last week it was a mistake in the pits and this week it was a mistake on the driver’s part,” Stewart said. “We had some bad luck and then I made our problem worse with the speeding penalty.”

But this year, it’s always something - not just with the No. 20 but withMatt Kenseth’s No. 17 as well.  Kenseth got tangled with Chad McCumbee on lap 230 and finished 40th.

“If we would have been running where Greg (Biffle) and Carl (Edwards) were running, we wouldn’t have got wrecked to start with, so I always feel it’s partially your fault,” Kenseth said. “Even though we got caught up in somebody else’s mess, if we would have been running better, we would have been ahead of their mess.”

Kenseth has the second best Loop Driver Rating for Dover, just south of Loudon winner, Greg Biffles’s.  But that can’t cover the team’s current struggles and the driver’s apparent lack of team confidence.

I don’t know if Stewart or Waltrip are really looking under the proverbial bed for Dover track gremlins, but Dale Eanhardt Jr was acting like an X-Files devotee according to Rick Hendrick…

Earnhardt said he was tired of his car’s handling and then suggested someone was tampering with his tires and said the team needed to beef up security. That’s when Hendrick got on the radio to calm him down and suggested Junior “take a deep breath.”

It isn’t a good sign though, that Hendrick had to get on the horn to settle Junior down.  That should be Tony Eury Jr’s responsibility.

“We’ve got to be right there in striking distance,” Hendrick said. “He’s got so much talent and they’ve been doing things the way they do them for a long, long time. I’m just trying to give them some old man experience. A little more focus, think about what the car’s doing, give Tony the feedback and we’ll make the right adjustments.”

Kevin Harvick’s  Ave Finish in the Dover Loop era is only 22.4 and he has led exactly zero laps.  That’s 491 less than Kenseth, who tops the stat.  The Monster hasn’t been very good to Kasey Kahne either with an Ave Finish of 24.3 and a Driver Rating of 69.8.

Thanks to FoxSports.com for the quotes.  And Icon Sports Media for the photo.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, On Pit Row | 1 Comment 

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

September 12, 2008

So the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set, the 12 drivers involved have made their compulsory David Letterman Show appearance, and we’re set for ten weeks of the finest racing NASCAR has to offer.

We start at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, not always the most entertaining track, but perhaps the most vital in the Chase. Of the four drivers to win at Loudon since the Chase era began in 2004, none has ever finished worse than sixth in points that year. With that in mind, expect a Chase driver to win this weekend; the question is, which one?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this weekend at Loudon:

1. Kyle Busch: Kyle is usually better at Loudon in the summer (average finish of 10.3 in four starts) than he is in the fall (average finish of 23.0 in three starts). However, in three Car of Today starts at the track, his average finish is 13.3 with one top 5 finish, and his summer race this year was sabotaged by the front bumper of Juan Pablo Montoya.

2. Carl Edwards: Surprisingly, one second place finish in summer 2006 comprises Cousin Carl’s only top 10 finish at Loudon. On the other hand, Edwards’ worst finish at the track was 20th in fall 2004, in only his fifth career Cup start. In eight career starts, he’s only failed to complete one lap (in 2004). Edwards won’t get you a win, most likely, but he’s a sure bet for a solid finish.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t won a race at New Hampshire since he swept both events in 2003. That being said, he also has never failed to finish a race at the track, only getting caught up in one accident two years ago that put him down 67 laps. His average finish in the COT is a whopping 6.7, and his average finish at the track overall is a solid 10.5. Expect Johnson to challenge for a win, especially given the hot streak he’s been on lately.

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior led 29 laps here in the summer, 68 last year in subpar Dale Earnhardt Inc. equipment, and 120 at the fall race in 2003. He’s capable of running well at Loudon, even if his average finish in COT races here is only 14.7. The only reason Junior finished in 24th here this summer was because of a pit road accident with Jamie McMurray, when Junior forgot to signal that he was entering the pits and McMurray plowed into his car. Look for another decent run.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint won this race last year after leading 222 laps. It was his first career Sprint Cup victory, and it put to rest criticism that he made the 2007 Chase without any race wins. Clint then went on to finish third overall last year. He was also fastest in Cup practice on Friday. However, his average finish in his other four career starts at NHMS is 27.5. Bowyer will either be a boom or a bust this weekend.

6. Denny Hamlin: For starters, in five career New Hampshire starts, Denny has never failed to finish the race. His average finish of 6.8 is buoyed by one win and four top 10s in those races, with his worst finish being 15th at this race last year. Count on a top finish.

7. Jeff Burton: You can’t go wrong with any driver who once led every lap of a race in the modern era, and Burton led every lap of this race in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, in 9 starts, his average finish was 4.7 with four wins. Since joining RCR, Burton’s average finish is a solid if not spectacular 11.1, and RCR cars have won at New Hampshire in the fall the past two years. Seeing Burton in Victory Lane again this weekend shouldn’t be a stretch.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke should have won at Loudon in the summer, until the racing gods decided to smile upon nemesis Kurt Busch instead. Factoring in a win instead of his eventual 13th place finish would make Tony’s average COT finish at New Hampshire a whopping 5.3. Since 2004, he’s led 620 of 2692 possible laps in Cup starts at the track, and was .292 seconds away from sweeping both 2005 races. Tony should break his winless drought this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Save for three top 5 finishes accrued in his excellent 2005 season and the summer 2006 race, Biffle hasn’t been all that impressive at New Hampshire. Da Biff has an average finish of 19.5 overall at Loudon, but it’s only 20.4 in the fall races. Worse still, Biffle’s average finish in the COT at Loudon is 21.7. Yikes.

10. Jeff Gordon: Since the COT was first run at New Hampshire last year, Gordon has scored the most points at the track of any Chase driver, with 475. He has finished in the top 10 15 out of 27 times he’s started at New Hampshire, and has three wins at the track. Count on a solid finish.

11. Kevin Harvick: Happy won this race in 2006 on the way to a fourth place finish in points. Since 2003, Harvick has never finished outside of the top 20 at Loudon in the fall, with his worst finish being 17th last year. Harvick also led 54 laps in the summer race.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth himself said last week at Richmond that Roush Fenway cars aren’t too good at Loudon, and he backed it up by ranking 39th out of 45 on Friday’s speed chart. However, he’s also the seventh best driver of all-time in the COT era at the track. In 17 career starts at Loudon, Kenseth’s average finish is 10.9, and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at the track in over six years.

So who would I pick? Stewart, of course. Not only is Smoke overdue for a win, highly competitive at New Hampshire, and moderately fast in practice (13th overall), but he’s got a monkey on his back after (in his opinion) throwing away a win last week at Richmond. Expect Tony to make amends this week.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Chris Leone · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, New Hampshire Motor Speedway | Leave a Comment 

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

September 10, 2008

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment