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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover 2 - AAA 400

September 28, 2011

Race number three of the 2011 Sprint Cup Series Chase is set to start around 2:15 pm eastern time on Sunday at Dover International Speedway. 400 laps are set to be run around this 1.0-mile race track after two practice sessions (on Friday) and qualifying (on Saturday) are completed. This will be the second–and final–race of the season at “The Monster Mile” and hopefully (in my mind at least) we don’t see mileage become a factor on Sunday. The last two races here have each had at least ten different leaders so we shouldn’t see one dominant driver this weekend.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson sat on the pole for the race here in May and led 207 of the 400 laps but ended up finishing 9th. Matt Kenseth, who started 24th and led just 33 laps, took the checkered flag and was followed to the line by Mark Martin, who started 25th, and Marcos Ambrose. Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers rounded out the top 5. The only drivers who have finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover in 2010 as well as the race here in May are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA 400:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Jimmie Johnson - Going into this weekend, I normally wouldn’t rank the #48 team number one because of how off they have been thus far in the 2011 Chase. However, Jimmie Johnson’s record in the last five races at Dover has been nothing short of amazing. He owns an average driver rating of 140.6, which, mind you, the maximum is 150.0, has visited victory lane three times and has led 1,192 of the 2,000 laps ran. “Five Time” also has won three poles in that span. His overall average finish here is 9.6 in nineteen starts and has just six finishes outside of the top 10. If he wants to seriously pursue a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie Johnson needs to at least have a top 5 on Sunday, which should be (somewhat) easily obtainable.

2. Carl Edwards - Believe it or not, Cousin Carl has the best average finish at Dover (7.6) of anyone in the series. In fourteen career starts here, Edwards has never finished worse than 18th–which came in his first start–and has completed all but 4 of the 5604 laps ran in those races. He has nine top 10s in the last ten races at “The Monster Mile” and Carl wound up in victory lane here in 2007 after leading 95 laps and starting 15th. As you may or may not know, Edwards has five straight top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races, and I wouldn’t bet against him getting a sixth-straight on Sunday, and maybe even a second win at Dover.

3. Matt Kenseth - The most recent winner at Dover has started out this year’s Chase in a surprising way: he had a great car at Chicago but a penalty put Kenseth a lap down at the end, and he lucked into a 6th-place finish at Loudon, which is one of his worst tracks. Well, unless the peculiar-ness continues on Sunday, expect a good run from this #17 team at “The Monster Mile”. Matt has made twenty-five attempts at this 1.0-mile race track and has came away with sixteen top 10 finishes and only six finishes outside of the top 20, giving him an average finish of 12.4. As I said before, Kenseth won the race here in May, and he also won the June race in 2006 at this race track. In the last seven races at Dover, that #17 Ford has finished in the top 5 in six of them. I like this team’s odds of making it seven-for-eight.

4. Kyle Busch - Over the last five races at this track, “Rowdy” Busch owns the fourth-best average driver rating but just the tenth-best average finish. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, but when Kyle is on his game, he’s an excellent choice in fantasy (as usual). In thirteen career starts, Busch has recorded eight top 10 finishes–which were all top 5s, by the way–but also four finishes outside of the top 20. He won here in 2008 and 2010 and has an average career finish of right around 14th at Dover.

5. Jeff Gordon - Just an FYI, in case you haven’t noticed, Jeff Gordon has seven finishes of 6th or better in the last nine Sprint Cup races. It’s never a good idea to go against a hot driver, and I wouldn’t recommend leaving the #24 Chevrolet off of your roster this weekend. In thirty-seven career starts at Dover, Gordon owns four wins and has recorded twenty-one top 10 finishes. He’s stumbled at this track recently (Gordon’s last top 10 here came four races ago) but I fully expect this team to turn their luck around here on Sunday. Jeff has led the most laps (2,231) at Dover than anyone in the circuit.

6. Tony Stewart - Before the Chase started, I probably would have bet my entire life savings plus whatever money I would earn in my future that “Smoke” wouldn’t win the first two races. I’m glad I didn’t make that mistake. Suddenly this team looks championship-caliber and in the last five Sprint Cup races they have finished in the top 10 four times. Stewart isn’t great at “The Monster Mile” but he won both races here in 2000 and never finished worse than 11th in his first twelve starts at this track. He has stumbled recently here, but Tony’s average finish at Dover is 12.5.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” Harvick’s best career finish at this 1.0-mile race track has been 3rd, which came in 2006, but he hasn’t been terrible at Dover at all. Kevin’s average finish of 16.9 may scare people away, but in the last six races here, he has finished 12th or better in four of them and his worst finish has been 17th. He won’t challenge for the win on Sunday, but I think this #29 Chevrolet should be a solid pick for a top 10, though. Just don’t expect much more: in twenty-one Dover races, Harvick has just two top 5s.

8. Ryan Newman - I can’t give you many reasons not to pick “The Rocketman” this weekend, especially in allocation leagues, and it’s hard to go against him in Dover. Newman has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races and had a great car last week in Loudon but finished 25th. Statistically this is Ryan’s best track on the circuit and he owns three victories in nineteen career starts at “The Monster Mile”. His average finish of 11th at Dover is good enough for third in the series behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Newman hasn’t been great here recently, but he does have three top 10s in the last five Dover races. Unless he starts 25th or worse, “The Rocketman” should be a good pick on Sunday.

9. Kurt Busch - In the last five Dover races, the elder Busch brother has the fifth-best average driver rating along with an average finish of 9.4. Over his career here, though, luck hasn’t been on Kurt’s side as much at this 1.0-mile race track. In twenty-two starts here, Busch has just seven top 10s and a best finish of 4th, which came in 2006. His average finish of 18.7 isn’t stellar, but since 2009 Kurt’s only finishes outside of the top 10 have been 14th and 19th. As always, watch him in practice, but going into the weekend I see the “Double Deuce” as a top 10 car.

10. Brad Keselowski - BK’s crazy season just keeps on getting crazier (and nearly insane). Brad has two top 5 finishes in the two Chase races thus far, and if he has a little better car than he has had in recent weeks, Keselowski may be able to grab a third-straight without the help of a fuel mileage gamble. Brad finished 3rd here back in May, which, by the way, was the 12th race of the 2011 season and way before he went on his hot streak. It was also the race after BK got his first top 10 of the season, which was his 3rd-place effort in Charlotte. Keselowski’s other two starts at “The Monster Mile” have ended in 18th and 22nd-place finishes, and he has completed 99.7% of the laps ran. It’s hard to go against a guy that hasn’t finished worse than 12th in Sprint Cup action since mid-July.

11. Clint Bowyer - Is it just me, or does it seem like when a driver is about to announce switching to a new team, or has announced it, the team (overall) performs better? It might just be me, but despite not getting the finishes, Bowyer has had some pretty fast Chevrolets underneath him in the last few weeks. At Dover, Clint owns an average finish of 14.8 in eleven career starts and he ended up a career-best 6th here in May. He’s only led 33 laps on this 1.0-mile race track but Bowyer has completed 99.5% of the laps ran in the eleven races he has participated in.

12. A.J. Allmendinger - If you remember the last race at Dover, you probably remember just how awesome of a Ford A.J. Allmendinger was piloting that day. He started on the outside pole and had a legitimate shot to win but his engine blew just 166 laps into the race, which disappointed fantasy owners because many–myself included–took The Dinger in many leagues, hoping for the best. However, that run in May was no fluke: before that, A.J. knocked out three-straight finishes of 14th or better at “The Monster Mile” and two of them were top 10s, including his career best of 7th here in September 2009. He disappointed me mightily last week in Loudon, but they key to being successful in fantasy racing is having a short memory. Expect A.J. to have a good weekend in Dover.

13. Mark Martin - As with any other race this season, it’s going to be hit-or-miss with Mark Martin and the #5 team on Sunday, but going into the weekend I’m expecting a solid top 15 out of the old man. He has two runner-up finishes in the last four Dover races and hasn’t finished worse than 15th at Dover in the last five. This Sunday will mark Martin’s fifty-first career start at “The Monster Mile,” and in the previous fifty, he has recorded four wins and an average finish of 12.3.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior hasn’t had a top 10 at Dover since 2007, but they’ve had some great cars (so he says) in the first two Chase races, and with a little bit of luck, Earnhardt could find himself right back in the middle of the championship hunt. Earnhardt has an average finish of 17.8 in twenty-three career starts at Dover, and he even visited victory lane here back in 2001 after starting 3rd and leading 193 laps. He finished 12th here in May but that is only one of two finishes better than 20th in the last seven races at Dover for Junior. Watch the #88 in practice.

15. Greg Biffle - The Biff has two victories at “The Monster Mile” and owns an average finish of 11.4 in eighteen starts at this 1.0-mile race track. Lately, though, Biffle hasn’t been his normal self, with just one top 10 in the last four races here and two straight finishes of 19th. He cranked of six straight top 6 finishes here between 2006 and 2009, though, so Greg definitely knows how to tame this beast–to an extent.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA 400:

Marcos Ambrose - Marcos’ 3rd-place effort here in May is impressing, but that’s the only bright spot on his resume at Dover International Speedway. Ambrose has an average finish of 24.4 when you take out that run and his best finish over the last month has been 19th. I like Marcos as a long shot on short tracks, but unless you really need to make up some major ground in your fantasy league I wouldn’t even think about picking the #9 Ford this weekend.

Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers - I said last week that I have written off the Red Bull teams for the rest of the season, and although they didn’t end up too bad in New Hampshire, I doubt lightning will strike twice for these teams this weekend. Kahne has three top 10s in fifteen career starts while Vickers has two in thirteen. The average finish of these two is 24th and 20th, respectively.

Denny Hamlin - Did this team put so much effort (three straight top 10s) into getting in the Chase that they are completely spent now that the ten-race playoff has started? It sure seems like it. Hamlin followed up his 31st-place effort at Chicago with a 29th-place finish at New Hampshire and the series is visiting a track this week that Denny has had some trouble with in the past: in eleven career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Hamlin has just two top 5s and an average finish of 20.9. This is his second-worst track on the circuit behind Daytona.

Written by Jordan McAbee · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy NASCAR Primer Series, Fantasy Racing, Fantasy racing leagues, NASCAR, NASCAR Fantasy Tool, NASCAR Power Rankings, Predictions | Leave a Comment 

Chasers are 1 for 1: Let the nightmares of Monsters begin

September 18, 2008

A congrats are in order for Greg Biffle, for taking the first Chase win for 2008.

Getting down to business, let’s get a quick summary of who crashed the Chase party at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and review last weeks “predictions“.

  • Prediction 1: Martin Truex Jr.
    Finishing in a respectable 7th place. Luke: 1 for 1;
  • Prediction 2: Brian Vickers
    Finishing a dismal 35th, thanks to getting the ol’ T-Bone from David Gilliland. Luke: 1 for 2;
  • Prediction 3: David Reutimann
    Finishing decent in 15th, there were 28 other competitors who would have loved to trade spots. Not too shabby, Beak. Keep on keepin’ on. Luke: 1 for 3; (Half credit? Almost count?)

Now on to this weeks job. Taming the Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway.

Our first spoiler lead off last week as well. Now we’re to the home track of Martin Truex Jr., and he would love to take those checkers here at Dover. If you had to place a wager on tracks this team goes the extra mile for, this is certainly one of them. Finishing a strong 6th here in June, look for that to remain the case as he takes a Top10 from a Chaser.

David Ragan is looking for a bit of redemption after finishing 28th last week. David had a Top-15 here in June, and certainly has the capability for improvement by sneaking into the Top-10.

Ryan Newman needs a finish. Is he too distracted thinking of greener pastures? Perhaps, but it’s about time he had something solid. No stranger to the challenge of the Monster Mile.

There are several other possibilities for taking valuable Top-10 points from a Chaser. David Reutimann, or even Brian Vickers, but then again they have that potential just about any given week as of late. Potential doesn’t mean Top-10, however, as we find out week in and week out.

Dover offers a unique challenge. Steve will tell you it’s the concrete. Some will say it’s the banking. For me, I think the challenge comes from keeping it together for 400 miles while running at high speeds in what could be called Bristol’s big brother.

Those who can keep it focused for the distance will have the highest chances of success here. There’s a lot of time spent in the corners, and the constant battering of G-forces can take their toll. Keep your head in it, remain focused, and breathe when you can and you may just tame that Monster.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Luke · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008 | Leave a Comment