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NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Dickies 500 from Texas Motor Speedway

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Because the 1.5-mile, 24-degree banked track configuration at Texas Motor Speedway is similar to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway picking drivers for a fantasy lineup can be made much easier. The first Texas race, won by Jeff Gordon, was held in April. Atlanta and Lowe’s have already held two races a piece this season, so there a combined five races in which to analyze.

Three drivers have compiled an average finish better than 10th at the five 1.5M / 24° races: Jeff Gordon (5.8), Kasey Kahne (7.4) and Matt Kenseth (8.2). Six drivers averaged better than 16th: Tony Stewart (11.0), Ryan Newman (11.8), Jimmie Johnson (12.2), David Reutimann (12.6), Kyle Busch (12.6), Brian Vickers (13.4) and Mark Martin (15.2).

View my updated NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s table to see the results at all five races, plus the average finish of 32 drivers.

Chasing the pole at Texas Motor Speedway

1. Jeff Gordon… In his last five qualifying attempts at Texas, Gordon has won two poles and started in the second position twice. At the five 1.5M / 24° races this season, Gordon has an average starting position of 6.8.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Although he was never won a pole at Texas, Johnson owns the best average starting position among all drivers (8.9) there. This season Johnson has an average starting position of 5.0 at the five 1.5M / 24° races, including the pole at the second Lowe’s race three weeks ago.
3. Matt Kenseth… He has also never captured a pole at Texas but Kenseth has started eighth or better in six of his last eight attempts there. Kenseth did not have great runs at some of the 1.5M / 24° tracks but did start third at Texas in April and fourth at Lowe’s three weeks ago.
4. Martin Truex Jr…. In his last three April runs at Texas, Truex’s average starting position is only 22.3. November has been much better, winning the pole in the ‘07 Dickies 500 and starting second the next year. In September, Truex won the pole at the second Atlanta race.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Won at Texas in April. Runner-up in last year’s Dickies 500. Average finish of 5.5 in ‘07. Has led at least 15 laps in four of the last five races. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Won at Texas in ‘07. Runner-up in the last two April races, 15th in last year’s Dickies 500. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Won at Texas in ‘06. Finished fourth at Texas in April. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Won at Texas in ‘98. Since ‘06: 6.5 average finish in April, 22.6 in November. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Won at Texas in ‘02. Has a streak of five top-10 finishes at Texas– average finish of 5.4 in that span. Eight straight finishes inside the top-12. Had led at least one lap in 10 of 14 career starts. Y!-A4
6. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished seventh at Texas in April, best career finish. Y!-B2
7. Kasey Kahne… Won from the pole at Texas in ‘06 but no top-10s since. Finished 19th at Texas in April, average finish of 24.5 last year. Y!-B3
8. Kurt Busch… Finished eighth at Texas in April. Average finish of 32.0 in ‘08, 9.5 in ‘07. Y!-B4
9. Ryan Newman… Won at Texas in ‘03. Average finish of 21.5 at Texas in the last two races, 4.5 in the prior two. Y!-B5
10. Kyle Busch… Average finish of 7.8 at Texas over the last four races, led laps in all four.
11. Denny Hamlin… Finished 12th at Texas in April, average finish of 11.0 last year. Y!-B6
12. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Texas (swept last year, ‘05). Finished eighth at Texas in April.
13. Greg Biffle… Won at Texas in ‘05. Average finish of 4.0 at Texas in the last two races, led laps in both.
14. Clint Bowyer… Finished 22nd at Texas in April, average finish of 7.0 last year. Owns a career average finish of 13.6 in seven career starts.
15. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Texas in April and finished 11th, finished 10th last year. Top-10 finishes in the last two Nationwide races. Y!-B7
16. Brian Vickers… No top-10 finishes at Texas in 10 career starts, average finish of 16.6 over the last three. Y!-B8
17. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Texas in ‘07 and ‘97. Top-10 finishes in five of the last seven races at Texas.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won at Texas in ‘00. Had led laps in six straight races at Texas, average finish of 18.0 in those races.
19. Joey Logano… Strong value play. Started 10th, finished 30th at Texas in April. Average start of 8.0, finish of 9.0 in two Nationwide races.
20. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Finished 27th at Texas in April, average finish of 9.0 last year.
21. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. DNF (engine) at Texas in April, finished 21st last year. Average finish of 13.5 in last year’s Nationwide races. Y!-C1
22. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. Two career starts at Texas, 21.0 average finish. Average finish of 7.8 over the last four Nationwide races. Started 42nd, finished third in April’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Finished 38th at Texas in April, average finish of 7.8 in ‘07 and ‘08.
24. David Ragan… Weak value play. Started fourth, DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 12.0 last year. Average finish of 8.5 over the last three Nationwide races.
25. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 12th, finished 17th at Texas in April– both career bests. Average finish of 9.6 (two wins) in 13 IndyCar starts from ‘00-’07. Y!-C3
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Last two November races at Texas: started second, finished eighth last year; won the pole, finished third in ‘07. Finished 25th at Texas in April.
27. AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 33.0 at Texas in three career starts. Y!-C4
28. Elliott Sadler… Won at Texas in ‘04, only one top-10 finish since. Average finish of 31.0 over the last three Texas races.
29. Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.2 at Texas since ‘07.
30. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Finished 28th at Texas in April, average finish of 32.5 last year.
31. Paul Menard… Average finish of 15.0 at Texas in April since ‘07, 26.0 in November.
32. Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 27.3 at Texas over the last three races.
33. Bobby Labonte… DNF (crash) at Texas in April, average finish of 29.5 last year.
34. Scott Speed… Started and finished 33rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas.
35. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 32.3 at Texas over the last three races.
36. Regan Smith… Three career starts at Texas, 33.3 average finish.
37. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Texas. Average finish of 22.0 in six career Truck starts.
38. Robby Gordon… DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 33.0 last year.
39. John Andretti… Started and finished 26th at Texas in April.
40. David Gilliland… Started 30th, finished 29th at Texas in April
41. Max Papis… Started 39th, finished 35rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas. Crash in ‘08 Truck race, ‘06 Nationwide race. Two IROC starts in ‘05 and ‘06.
42. Michael McDowell… Started 40th, finished 33rd in April of last year, first career Cup start at Texas. Started 15th, finished 17th in April’s Nationwide race.
43. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify at Texas in April, 37.5 average finish last year.
44. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
45. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
46. Mike Skinner… Likely start and park. Started ninth, finished 29th in April of last year.
47. Tony Raines.. Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ‘07.
48. Derrike Cope… Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ‘06.

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