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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Richmond - Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

Now that we’ve gone a week without Sprint Cup Series action, the boys are back for some Saturday night racing at Richmond International Raceway. The race at this 0.75-mile track will be the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400 presented by Crown Royal. The former won Crown Royal’s “Your Name Here 400″ program, which allows people to submit their candidates that they feel are most deserving for the honor. Matthew Hansen is a marine and the award will be for his brother, Daniel, who was also a marine and recently passed away.

This week’s race will be ran on Saturday night (don’t forget to set your fantasy picks on time) and 400 laps are scheduled to be run, equaling 300 miles. Two practice sessions are scheduled to be held on Friday afternoon with qualifying later that night. Next week will be another Saturday night race at Darlington Raceway. The series will be back at Richmond International Raceway in September for the final race of NASCAR’s “regular season.”

During The Last Race At Richmond…Denny Hamlin led 251 of the 400 laps ran en route to his sixth win of the season. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Marcos Ambrose rounded out the top five that night. If you were wondering what the correlation between average practice speed and results were that night, click here. In the spring race at this track last season, Kyle Busch started from the pole and stayed there all night, leading 226 laps before taking the checkered flag ahead of Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. The only drivers to post top ten finishes in both Richmond races in 2010 were: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, and Jimmie Johnson. Busch was the only one of those to finish in the top five in both races.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Once again, no practice will be held after qualifying, so I’m not sure how important those speeds will be. Qualifying will be decently important this week, as none of the top four qualifiers in either race last season finished worse than 15th. Kyle Busch pretty much owns this track, so I wouldn’t recommend going against him this week.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

1. Kyle Busch - If you somehow believe that “Rowdy” won’t finish in the top five this weekend, I’d love to hear your argument. He’s finished every single lap ran in the races that he has started at this track and in those twelve starts, he has ten top 5s–which is good for an average finish of 5.3. Busch’s worst finish at Richmond is 20th and last year he finished 1st and 2nd at this track. Love him or hate him, Kyle Busch is going to be one of the best picks this weekend.

2. Clint Bowyer - Clint has finished 2nd in the past two races this season (why not go for three?) and is on a streak of four top 10s after his less-than-stellar start to the season. Statistically, Richmond is Bowyer’s best track, where he owns an average finish of 9.8 and one win. That is his only top five at this track but he one finish outside of the top 12 in his ten career starts here, and that was an 18th. Like Kyle Busch, Clint has finished every lap that has been ran in his career at this track, and his average driver rating of 101.7 over the past four races here is good for fourth-best in the series.

3. Denny Hamlin - The only reason I put Bowyer ahead of Hamlin is because of how the #11 team’s season is going. Luck hasn’t been on his side much, but that could easily change this weekend. Denny has made ten starts at Richmond and has two wins and an average finish of 8th. He’s led 1,150 laps in those ten races, which is over 28 percent of the laps ran. Hamlin’s worst finish at this track came in 2008 when he finished 24th, but he led 381 laps that day and a flat tire and penalty gave him the poor finish. Unless he runs into more bad luck (which is very possible), expect a good run from Hamlin on Saturday.

4. Jeff Gordon - This ranking will probably end up being too high for Gordon once it gets closer to race day, but you can’t ignore Gordon’s recent success at this track. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th since 2006 and half of those eight races were top fives. Jeff has 36 starts at Richmond with 23 top tens to his name and two wins. I don’t like how Gordon has ran this season, so I will be cautious with picking him, but you can make up your own opinion on him.

5. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is generally a good pick at short tracks and this week is no exception. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009, Newman has finished 4th, 10th, 8th, and 11th at Richmond and earlier this season, he has finished 5th at Phoenix and 10th at Bristol (both tracks are 1-mile or less). Ryan has started eighteen races at Richmond and owns an average finish of 11.4 and one win (in the 2003 season). He has also finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his career at this track.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This will be Junior’s best chance to snap his winless streak until the series visits Michigan International Speedway in June. Little E has an average finish of around 14th at this track in his 23 career starts and has visited victory lane three times in Richmond. He hasn’t found much success here lately, though, with a best finish of just 21st in the past four races. I expect that to change, though, because Earnhardt Jr. seems to be for real this season: he hasn’t finished worse than 12th since the Daytona 500.

7. Juan Montoya - It took a while for Montoya to find success at Richmond, but he has three top 10s in his past four starts at the track. He’s been a little hit-or-miss this season, though, so make sure he has a good car before picking him. Montoya has the 7th-best average driver rating over the past two years at this track and finished 4th at Martinsville (the most recent short track race).

8. Jimmie Johnson - The #48 Chevrolet is either good here or really bad, and I never like going against any team after a win (even if it was at a restrictor-plate track). Johnson has won here three times in his 18 career starts, but also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. Statistically, this is The Champ’s second-worst track, with an average finish of 16.9. He has finished in the top eleven in four of his past five starts here, though, and I don’t think it will be four of six after this weekend.

9. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races at Richmond and has finished in the top 12 in twelve of the last thirteen. His average career finish at this track is 12th, which makes it his fourth-best on the circuit. He won here in 2006, but has just five top 5s to his name at Richmond (compared to thirteen top 10s) in his twenty starts. Harvick’s finishes at the tracks 1-mile or less this season (Phoenix, Bristol, and Martinsville) have been: 4th, 6th, and 1st.

10. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl isn’t stellar here by any means, but he has gotten some good finishes recently at Richmond. Edwards’ career average finish at this track is 16.9 (statistically his fourth-worst) but he has two top 10s in a row here and has finished in the top 15 in five of his last six starts. This season Carl has an average finish of 8.3, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, a top ten isn’t out of the question.

11. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has struggled at Richmond recently, but when you look at his history here it’s hard to go against him. He has three wins at Richmond (and four 2nd-place finishes) in his 24 career starts, and while he hasn’t had a top ten here since May 2009, Tony has finished outside of the top 20 at this track just four times. Stewart hasn’t a top ten this season since early March, so he doesn’t have much momentum, but he’s pretty much a lock for a top 15 and will get a top 10 if he has a good car.

12. Kurt Busch - Busch’s average finish of 17.8 at Richmond is nothing to be excited about, but he won here in 2005 and has finished worse than 18th just once since 2006. The “Double Deuce” started off the season fast, and while the #22 team aren’t having stellar runs as of late, they are being consistent–with a worst finish of 18th.

13. Matt Kenseth - Up until Talladega, Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. were the only two drivers to finish in the top 12 in every race since Daytona. Obviously, Junior’s streak is still alive, but I think Kenseth will start another streak this week. He’s finished in the top 14 in three of his past four starts at Richmond and won here in 2002. Matt hasn’t earned a top ten since 2007 at this track, so don’t expect that, but a top fifteen is well within reach for the #17 Ford on Saturday night.

14. Jeff Burton - I’m going to wait until Burton at least gets a top ten before I even start recommending him. His average finish at Richmond has been 14.4 over his 33 career starts and Jeff has won one race here: back in 1998. Burton has three top 10s in his past five starts at this track, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, he could get a top fifteen.

15. Joey Logano - Speaking of top tens, “Sliced Bread” got his first of the season in Talladega and will look to ride that small wave of momentum into Richmond. He’s found success at this track in his Sprint Cup career, with a worst finish of 19th in his four career starts, and he got a 4th-place finish last fall after starting 6th. I thought he had the best car at the end of the race last fall, so maybe that will translate into a good run on Saturday.

Underdogs Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

Marcos Ambrose - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ambrose got his third top ten of the season on Saturday night. He finished 9th in 5th in the races at Richmond in 2010 and recorded finishes of 11th and 22nd in his rookie season. Statistically, this is Marcos’ second-best track on the circuit.

Brad Keselowski - Kes has always qualified well here, with top ten efforts in each of his three starts at this track, and he had some decent race runs last season at Richmond, with finishes of 14th and 15th. Watch to see how his car is in ten-lap average before forming your roster around him

David Reutimann - Reutty will be a risky pick as always this weekend because he is so hit-or-miss. He usually has an awesome car or is just decent and disappoints his fantasy owners. Reutimann got a top ten at Richmond in 2008 and finished 15th and 19th in the races held here last season after starting 2nd and 5th, respectively.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two poles here in his twelve starts and two top tens as well, although one of them came in a different race. He finished 15th and 7th in the 2009 races at Richmond and posted a 20th-place finish in the spring 2010 race before blood clots ended Vickers’ season early.

Those To Avoid Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

A.J. Allmendinger - This Richard Petty Motorsports driver could have a good run this weekend, but one run doesn’t make someone a good racer at a track. The ‘Dinger ended up 8th in the fall race last season after finishing 17th in the spring race. But was that top ten a fluke? His career average finish here is 25.8.

Kasey Kahne - Kahne won at Richmond in 2005 but his average career finish here is 19.0 and he hasn’t had a top ten since early 2008. There are much better weeks to use Kahne.

David Ragan - Last week at Talladega was the week to use Ragan (and I was just as disappointed as everyone else when he went behind the wall). He finished 3rd here in 2007 but that is Ragan’s only finish above 17th in his eight starts at this track.

Regan Smith - He may get you some qualifying bonus points in Yahoo!, but don’t expect a good race out of Smith this week (as usual). His best finish here is 21st and his average finish in his five starts at this track is 27.8.

Be sure to check out NASCAR Nation and follow me on Twitter for last minute fantasy advice.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas - Samsung Mobile 500

The Sprint Cup Series heads to “The Great American Speedway” in Texas this weekend for the first night race of the season. The green flag is set to wave around 7:30 eastern time on Saturday night after a practice session and qualifying is held on Friday afternoon. The first of the two practice sessions this weekend is set to be run on Thursday at 5 o’clock eastern time. Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile quad oval similar to Charlotte Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are really very few drivers that are consistently up front here, so picking for a race like this can sometimes be difficult.

During The Last Race at Texas…Denny Hamlin started 30th but wound up winning the race here in November after leading 31 laps. Greg Biffle had the most laps led that day with 224; he ended up finishing 5th. Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Joey Logano filled in the space between Hamlin and Biffle in the finishing order. During the spring race here in 2010, Hamlin also found victory lane after starting 29th and leading just 12 laps. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five that day. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle were the only drivers to record top ten finishes in both races at Texas Motor Speedway in 2010.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The cars from Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have the best average finish here over the past two years, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of the Hendrick Motorsports boys. You can’t overlook Roush-Fenway Racing when the series comes to these intermediate tracks but they haven’t won here since 2008 when Carl Edwards swept both races. Usually those who start near the front finish there, but as Denny Hamlin showed in both races last year, it is not necessary to be fast in qualifying to visit victory lane. If you are wondering how important average practice speed is at Texas, click here for the results of the fall race last year with the drivers ranked on how fast they were in practice.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

1. Kevin Harvick - I said in the off-season that everyone should jump off of Harvick’s bandwagon while they could, but it looks like I need to jump back on (read that story by clicking here). The #29 Chevrolet was junk for 80% of the race in Martinsville but they got it dialed in late and Harvick wound up winning the race. He really is living up to his nickname of “The Closer.” At Texas, Kevin has made 16 career starts and owns an average finish of 12.4 with a best finish of 5th. I think he has a great shot to better that this week, as he has had super fast cars at most of the races this year–including two weeks ago at Las Vegas. He’s only led five laps here in his career, but it’s the last lap that counts, as Harvick should know by now. His past three finishes here have been 6th, 7th, and 5th.

2. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is actually really, really good at this track and he’s on a roll this year, with three straight finishes of 6th or better and no finish lower than 11th since Daytona. He finished 20th in the spring race here last season, but before that he was on a streak of six straight top 10s, and he turned around and finished runner-up in the fall race. In seventeen starts at this track, Kenseth has recorded 11 top tens (including one win) and has an average finish of 9.5. He’s finished runner-up at this track four times.

3. Denny Hamlin - His teammate, Kyle Busch, says that Joe Gibbs Racing has found the cause of their engine problems, and this week will be a good one to test that statement. As I said before, Hamlin won both races at Texas in 2010 and has an average finish of 4th over his past four starts at this track. He’s finished outside of the top 20 only once in eleven tries here, and that is evident by his career average finish of 8.8. After last week’s heartbreaker and with the engine problems Gibbs has had this year, Hamlin could be a risky pick, but as the saying goes, “high risk, high reward.”

4. Jimmie Johnson - For the last three years, “Five Time” has finished 2nd in the first race held at Texas Motor Speedway. Can he continue that streak this weekend? It’s surely possible, especially with how strong he was at Fontana. In fifteen starts at this track, Johnson has amassed eleven top 10s, including one win in 2007. He’s also finished outside of the top 15 just twice in his career at this track, so expect another solid day out of “The Champ” on Saturday night.

5. Greg Biffle -Over the past four races at this track, “The Biff” has the best average driver rating in the series and the third-best average finish (6.5). He’s on a five-race streak of top 10s at this 1.5-mile racetrack and he won here in 2005. He started 3rd and 2nd at Texas in 2010 so expect a good qualifying effort out of Biffle on Friday as well. He’s struggled a bit at these intermediates thus far in 2011, but I expect that to change on Saturday.

6. Tony Stewart - The Stewart-Haas cars have been really strong on the intermediate tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. “Smoke” won here in 2006 and has an average finish of 13.2 in eighteen career starts at this track. In the last seven races at Texas, Stewart has just one finish outside of the top 20, and it will take a wreck or mechanical failure for that number to be two after this weekend’s race.

7. Kurt Busch - Last week, Kurt finished 16th in Martinsville after being a 30th-place car for much of the afternoon. I don’t expect the “Double Deuce” to be a 30th-place car this weekend, so a top ten can be expected on Saturday. Kurt has struggled at this racetrack here and there, but he has three top tens in his past four starts and a career average finish of 13.8. He won the fall race in 2009.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Little E has been running great this season and hasn’t finished worse than 12th since Daytona. He’s struggled at Texas recently–with just one top ten (8th last season) in the past eight races here–but this is the track where he got his first Sprint Cup series win. With another strong car this weekend, Junior might find victory lane and finally end his winless streak. He should have a good qualifying effort on Friday, too, as his average start at this track is around 10th.

9. Kyle Busch - This ranking will probably prove to be too low once it’s all said and done, so look for Shrub to move up when I post my predictions on Friday. Last fall, Busch had a fast car but, in case you don’t remember, he was penalized two laps for flipping off a NASCAR official and finished 32nd. Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race last season, and that is his best finish at this track. If you think his engine will last all race, Rowdy probably won’t be too bad of a pick this weekend.

10. Ryan Newman - As I said before, the Stewart-Haas cars have hit on something at these intermediate races this year. Newman isn’t the first driver I think of when the series comes to these tracks, but he finished 5th in Las Vegas last month as well as in Fontana a couple weeks ago. “The Rocketman” won at this track in 2003, and while his best finish is 11th while driving for Stewart-Haas at this track, that could easily change this weekend. His average finish in the past two years at Texas is 14.5.

11. Carl Edwards - Edwards isn’t as consistent at this track as he is at other intermediates, but he’s won here three times and you can never overlook the 99 here. He hasn’t finished better than 10th here since his wins in 2008, but Carl is having a great season so it’s very possible that he turns his luck around at this track. He won in Las Vegas and had just a decent car at Fontana but still got a 6th-place finish. If he looks good in practice, expect Cousin Carl to move up when I make my predictions on Friday.

12. Mark Martin - This team is lacking something this year, and until they get it figured out, I won’t be very high on Martin. He hasn’t finished worse than 6th at Texas in his past four starts here and has an average finish of 12.4 in his career here. I think Martin will be a mid-teens driver on Saturday night, with a small shot at a finish around 10th if he can get lucky.

13. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made ten starts at this track and owns five top 10s and an average finish of 14.5. He’s finished 7th, 7th, and 4th in past three fall races at Texas, so you might want to wait until November when the series visits this track again to pick him. Bowyer has two top tens in a row now, though, so he looks to be climbing out of the hole that he dug himself in earlier this season. He ended up 7th in Fontana.

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex qualifies in the top ten on Friday, expect a good race from him on Saturday. He finished 6th at Las Vegas after qualifying 9th and has top ten finishes in every race that he has qualified there at Texas. Martin’s average finish here is 16.1 and, as always, be cautious if you pick him this weekend because he is always a risky pick.

15. David Ragan - David got his first top ten of the season last week in Martinsville (who expected that?) and could get his second on Saturday, although I would say a top fifteen is more likely. In eight starts at Texas, Ragan has three finishes of 37th or worse, but in the other five races he hasn’t finished worse than 17th. David ended up 15th and 8th at this track in 2010.

Underdogs Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose hasn’t been terrible this year at the intermediates and has found success at this track. He’s made five starts here and has just one finish worse than 21st. Last year he finished 17th and 12th at Texas and had a super fast Ford at Las Vegas a month ago.

Trevor Bayne - With Bayne running a limited schedule, this is an excellent place to use him in allocation leagues. He made his Sprint Cup debut here last fall and posted a respectable 17th-place finish. The Daytona 500 winner finished 20th at Las Vegas, and I think he will be right around there this weekend with the possibility of a top fifteen.

A.J. Allmendinger - I like him better at the flat tracks, but Allmendinger has found success at the intermediate tracks as well. He finished 14th at Fontana and ended up 19th at Las Vegas. The ‘Dinger hasn’t finished worse than 14th at Texas in his past three starts here and has been quietly having a very consistent season.

Paul Menard - As you know, these are the tracks that Menard excels at, so it’s a good idea to keep him in the back of your mind when the series comes to the intermediates. He got a 10th-place finish here last fall and in the two races at intermediate tracks this season, Menard had finishes of 16th and 12th.

Those To Avoid Entering The Samsung Mobile 500:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two top tens on the intermediates this year, so he may surprise me this weekend, but his average finish at Texas is 23.8 and he hasn’t finished better than 16th here since 2007. His best result at this track came in his first start, and that was 12th.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” posted a top five at Texas in the fall last year, but his next best finish is 19th. With the way this young man’s season has been going, I’d wait until he has a few good races before taking Logano.

Jeff Gordon - Gordon won here in 2009, and while he has nine top 10s in his twenty starts at this track, he also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. He hasn’t been impressive at the intermediates this season, either, ending up 36th at Las Vegas and 18th at Fontana. There are better choices than the #24 this week.

Brad Keselowski - His teammate, Kurt Busch, may have found success at Texas in the “Blue Deuce,” but I doubt that BK will. He finished 14th here last spring but his career average finish is right around 25th. He won’t be any good for qualifying bonus points, either, as Keselowski has never started better than 35th at this track.

Hopefully you like night races because we’re entering a streak of them. Over the next four races, three of them will be held on Saturday night. Be sure to check out my post-qualifying race predictions on Friday over at ifantasyrace.com and if you’re looking for a good place to chat with other fans during the race, check out NASCAR Nation.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville - Goody’s Fast Relief 500

After the checkered flag waved at Fontana, I had to sit back and rub my eyes; did Kevin Harvick just beat Jimmie Johnson at one of his best tracks? I think most NASCAR fans–myself included–breathed a sigh of relief that this could possibly be the year that Johnson gets knocked off of his throne. Of course, running second every race in the Chase will earn any driver a championship, but I think it was a good thing for NASCAR to see “The Champ” get beat (as well as have an exciting finish after an ultimately dull race).

This week the Sprint Cup series makes a stop at Martinsville Speedway in Virgina, commonly known as “The Paperclip“. This will be the first of two stops at the track this season, with the second coming in late October. Not many drivers have visited victory lane here recently, with Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon combining to win 14 of the last 16 races held at this 0.526-mile oval.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Denny Hamlin held off a hard-charging Mark Martin for his seventh win of the 2010 season. Martin finished second that day with Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson rounding out the top five. In the first race at Martinsville last season, Hamlin led 172 laps and got the win on a green-white-checkered finish over Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. followed those two to the checkers. Hamlin, Logano, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson were the only drivers to record top 10s in both races at “The Paperclip” in 2010. The results of the most recent race at Martinsville can be found by clicking here, and this will show you how drivers finished compared to how they were in practice.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Quite simply, load up on Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson this week. Those two have won the past nine races here and it seems like they are always up front. Some people may shy away from the Gibbs Toyotas, but I don’t see much of a problem with them at the short tracks; picking them at the intermediate ovals, though, is a different story. Last season, qualifying wasn’t very important. In October, Hamlin won from the pole but only one other person who finished in the top ten started there. During the spring race here, none of the top eight finishers started better than 11th. Also, most drivers are good here or bad here, and very rarely do you see the “bad” drivers having a good race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

1. Denny Hamlin - This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Hamlin has won three of the last four races at “The Paperclip” with his other finish being 2nd. He’s made eleven starts at this track and has ten top 10s and an average finish of 6th. The only race that Denny hasn’t completed all of the laps was his second start here where he started 41st and got caught up in an accident. He’s led almost 36% of the laps ran here in the past two years and should be a lock for a top five this week. Don’t worry about the engine problems with the Gibbs cars this week because, as I said before, I don’t think they will have issues on short tracks.

2. Jimmie Johnson - For the first time since 2005, “Five Time” didn’t lead any laps in the two races held at Martinsville last season, but he still posted finishes of 9th and 5th. Jimmie has won here six times and is on a streak of seventeen straight top 10s at this track. Johnson looked good at Bristol a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he won’t challenge for the win on Sunday. He’s real hungry to break his winless streak, especially after getting beat by Harvick in California last week, and this is the perfect place for that to happen.

3. Kevin Harvick - I expect “Happy” to ride the momentum from his win at Fontana into Martinsville and be a factor once again this week. He started on the pole in the spring race last year and led 57 laps before he had problems and wound up finishing 35th. Harvick started 35th in the October race but still came away with a top five finish after leading 97 laps. Kevin has finished in the top twelve in eight of last ten races held at “The Paperclip” and has had great cars in almost every race this season (just not the best luck).

4. Jeff Gordon - Gordon isn’t as good as his teammate here, but he’s damn close. He’s made 36 starts at this track, coming away with 29 top tens and seven wins. He finished 20th in the fall race last season after being wrecked by Kurt Busch (possible payback from Sonoma) and that broke his streak of fifteen top 10s. I expect Gordon to start that streak again this week, and a top five is definitely within his grasps. I think Gordon has been average this season (except for his win in Phoenix) so keep an eye on him this weekend, but it’s real hard to go against his history at this track.

5. Carl Edwards - I’m really liking how smooth Carl’s season is going so far and I think he will have another strong run this weekend. He didn’t have an awesome-fast car in Fontana last week, but still came away with a 6th-place finish (which was higher than he ran all day). Edwards finished 8th in both Martinsville races in 2010 but has just four top 10s to his name in his thirteen starts here. He’s never led a lap here but that could change this weekend. He will be the best pick of the Roush-Fenway Racing camp this weekend.

6. Kyle Busch - Don’t make the mistake I have in the past two weeks and not pick Rowdy Busch in fantasy. He isn’t stellar at this track, but between him and Carl Edwards, there are no other drivers that are on as hot of streaks as these two. Kyle’s best finish at Martinsville is 4th (and he’s done that four times) and he has finished there in two of the past three races here. He’s a little hit-or-miss at this track, with five top 5s and five finishes worse than 20th in his twelve starts. Which Kyle Busch will show up this weekend? I’d bet on the “hit” one.

7. Ryan Newman - In case you didn’t realize this, Ryan Newman is 2nd in points and has as many top 10s and top 5s as Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards (four and three, respectively). “The Rocketman” is a great qualifier at Martinsville–with an average start of 9th and three career poles–and has finished in the top five in 33% of his starts here. Over the past four races at “The Paperclip,” Newman has three finishes in the top seven, and I think it’s very possible he will end up right around there on Sunday. His average driver rating of 98.4 is seventh-best in the series at this track over the past two years.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you’ve read anything from me over the past few weeks, you know I’ve been high on Junior, and that won’t change this week. He didn’t have a great race at Auto Club Speedway, but he still managed a 12th-place finish at one of his worst tracks. Martinsville is Dale Jr’s third-best track and I think he will have a similar race to last fall: lead some laps and get a solid top ten finish. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt has four top tens in six starts at “The Paperclip,” and in his career he averages right around a 14th-place finish.

9. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made 46 starts at Martinsville and has come away with 24 top tens as a result. He has two wins here and has finished in the top eight in three of the past four races here. Martin once again showed his inconsistency in Fontana and that is the reason he is ranked 9th for my preview. He was super fast in practice last week and had many people thinking he had a shot at a top five, only to finish 20th. Like teammate Jeff Gordon, I don’t think Martin is running as well as he should this season. Over the past two years, Mark has the sixth-best average driver rating at this track, but I would consider him a risky pick this week.

10. Jeff Burton - The #31 team has gotten off to a slow start this season, but their finishes have been getting progressively better and I think this is the week that they get their first top ten of the 2011 season. In the two races at Martinsville last year, Burton led 140 and 134 laps but had disappointing finishes of 20th and 9th. He has just one win at this track (in 1997) but hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty since 2006. Burton’s career average finish at “The Paperclip” is 13.8 and he has had the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races here.

11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finally got a top ten last week and I think he could challenge for a second this week at Martinsville. He has just one top five finish in ten starts at this track, but he’s recorded top ten finishes in five of the last seven races here. Clint has never led a lap at “The Paperclip,” so don’t expect him to challenge for a win, but a top ten won’t be out of the question. His last four spring races here have given Bowyer finishes of 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th.

12. Tony Stewart - Last year was an off-year for “Smoke” at Martinsville, with finishes of 26th and 24th, but he has won here twice and his career average finish is a respectable 13.1. In his past eleven starts at Martinsville, Stewart has just three finishes outside of the top fifteen and none worse than 26th. Over the past two seasons, Tony has the ninth-best average driver rating at this track.

13. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, Montoya actually hasn’t been terrible at “The Paperclip.” He’s made eight starts at this track and seven of them have ended in top 20 finishes, although only two have been in the top ten. Juan has been in the top ten in points all season thus far and I don’t think that will change this week. His finishes of 36th and 19th in 2010 at Martinsville are the two worst in Montoya’s Sprint Cup career.

14. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” nearly won the race here last March and was one of only four drivers to score top tens in both trips to Martinsville in 2010. His first trip to “The Paperclip” gave him a 32nd-place finish but he backed that up with a 12-place effort later in 2009. Logano hasn’t been stellar this year, so proceed with caution, but statistically this is Joey’s fourth-best track. He needs a good run to get his season back on track and this could be the week that Logano breaks through.

15. Paul Menard - Paul continued his great start to the season at Fontana with yet another career-best finish, but for him to accomplish that this week it may be a bit tougher. Last season, while running for Richard Petty Motorsports, Menard collected finishes of 14th and 13th. This season he has Richard Childress Racing power under the hood, and they have had success here in the past. Will we see another career-best finish for Paul Menard this week? His worst finish at Martinsville has been 27th in his seven starts here.

Underdogs Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Jamie McMurray - McMurray has finished in the top eleven in three of the past four races here and he has nine top 10s in his sixteen career starts. Word of caution: because he hasn’t ran well this season at all, Jamie will be a risky pick this week, but he’s not terrible at this track: statistically this is McMurray’s fifth-best venue.

Brian Vickers - Dang was Vickers and his Red Bull Toyota fast in Fontana. Will they be able to turn that into a good run at Martinsville? We will find out. Vickers has three finishes of 11th or better in his past four starts here and finished 6th in the spring race in 2010. Kasey Kahne drove this car to a 14th-place finish last October at this track.

Brad Keselowski - He’s made just two starts at this track but Keselowski has finishes of 12th and 10th to his name. This year, BK finished 15th at Phoenix and 18th at Bristol, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question this week, but I doubt he will be able to score another top ten.

David Ragan - I usually only use Ragan on oval tracks but he hasn’t been terrible at Martinsville. Last year he finished 16th and 17th and in 2008 he posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He finished 16th at Bristol a few weeks ago, the first short track race of the season.

Those To Avoid Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Regan Smith - Smith finished 14th here in 2008 but that is his only finish inside the top 20 in his career at this track. Darrell Waltrip keeps saying how good of a season this guy is having, but I just don’t see it: he’s 30th in points and the only race he looked impressive was Daytona. Regan’s cumulative driver ratings over the past three races don’t even add up to Denny Hamlin’s driver rating in the fall race last year.

David Reutimann - Reutty hasn’t even looked good on the tracks where he is expected to perform well so there’s no reason to think he will have a good run on a track that he has an average finish around 26th at. Last year at this track Reutimann finished 27th and 28th. Save him for the intermediates.

Kurt Busch - I expected a 25th-place finish at best last week out of Kurt but he somehow pulled off a 17th. He may do that again this week, but I’m not about to put him on my roster. Busch’s last top ten came in 2005, and while he has one win here, just 4 of Kurt’s 21 starts here have given him a top ten finish.

Martin Truex, Jr. - He finished 5th here last spring, but one good race doesn’t make you a great driver (I’m talking about you, too, Trevor Bayne). His average finish is 22.5 at this track and three of Truex’s last four starts here have given him finishes of either 28th or 29th. He looks like his 2010 self thus far, so don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the practice speed charts this weekend. Just don’t be fooled by him.

I’m just hoping for an enjoyable race this week, and I’m sure many others are as well. I nearly fell asleep multiple times during the race last week, but I must say, those last ten or so laps were intense. I will post my final predictions for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 over at ifantasyrace.com so be sure to check those out, and make sure you join NASCARNation if you haven’t already. Good luck to everyone’s fantasy rosters this week, and if you want my opinion between two drivers where you don’t know who to pick, feel free to send me a tweet.

Fantasy NASCAR 2011: Countdown to Daytona

For NASCAR fantasy game players preparing to map season-long strategies and draft their teams, one driver has been the consensus number one over-all pick for the last three seasons. Jimmie Johnson is, and has been, the man.

Johnson and his no. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet have won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup championships. The 2011 decision was still in doubt entering the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were in with a chance entering the race. But Johnson closed it out for his fifth consecutive series win.

During that five year run, Johnson has won 35 times and has an average finish of 10.8. The next closest driver in wins is Kyle Busch with 17. Johnson is number one in poles, top fives, top tens and average starting position.

Those stats are official. Unofficially, the no. 48 team has lead NASCAR in stability as well. No team has undergone fewer changes than crew chief Chad Knaus’operation. At least that was true until three races from the end of 2010, Knaus swapped his pit crew with that of the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsport car driven by Jeff Gordon.

That change was the first significant shakeup for the Johnson-Knaus team in five years. The move smacked of panic at the time and may signal that the championship run is running out of steam. Still, Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy points machine.

Jeff Gordon ran a solid, consistent, second statistically to Johnson during the 2010 season. His NASCAR Loop Datadriver rating - a combination of 13 key stat groups taken from NASCAR’s on-track scoring loops - was second to Johnson all year and Gordon’s average finish over the last five seasons is behind only to Johnson as well. Jeff Gordon’s problem is, he just doesn’t win anymore. His 11 top fives and 17 top tens were solid. Zero wins, four DNFs and one pole were a disappointment.

With three races to go, Gordon was out of contention for the Cup championship when his pit crew was given to teammate Johnson. The move did not improve the no. 24 team. More shakeups are ahead. There was a time when Jeff Gordon was always a good pick at any track. Things have changed.

The big challenge to Johnson came from Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin. With 8 wins, 2 poles, 14 top fives and 18 top tens, Hamlin overcame early season knee surgery to give Johnson a real challenge. Hamlin is nearly unbeatable in the state of Virginia, winning three of the four races at Martinsville and Richmond. He swept the pair at super fast Texas Motor Speedway too. And Pocono should be named after him.

Kevin Harvick will have a new sponsor for 2011. Budweiser will take the place of Shell Gasolines on the no. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy. Harvick had a remarkably consistent 2010 season. His 26 top tens were tops in the series and his average finish - 8.7 - was best by far. Three wins and 2 poles along with 16 top fives made Harvick a good fantasy pick in 2010. Two of Harvick’s wins came on restrictor plate tracks at Daytona and Talladega and over the last five years he has more wins and a better average finish than anyone on plate tracks.

Other than the sponsor switch, RCRis leaving Harvick’s team alone and that bodes well for 2011.

Carl Edwards almost single handedly saved 2010 for Ford Racing. Three Roush Racing Fords qualified for the Chase to the Sprint Cup and Edwards won the last two races of 2010. If you believe in momentum, the no. 99had it going into the off-season. The Bob Osborneled team has been very stable and Roush seems to have caught up with the COT programs of the Chevy and Toyota teams now. Carl Edwards is set for a return to eight or so wins and his best shot at a Sprint Cup yet.

JGR’s Kyle Busch will score big in 2011. Recently married and unable to contend for multiple NASCAR championships due to rule changes, Kyle is a top six pick in any one’s fantasy draft and is very tough at the high banked speedways like LasVegas, Charlotte and Atlanta.

Jamie McMurraywon three races and grabbed four poles in 2010 and was season’s biggest surprise. McMurray is very good on plate tracks and a great pick for either road course.

One breakout driver for 2011should be Joey Logano. Logano came on strong late in 2010 with one pole, seven top fives and 16 top tens.

Watch Kasey Kahne. Kahne has a one year contract to drive for Red Bull Racing in 2011 as he waits for his 2012 Hendrick Motorsportsseat. This is the best equipment Kahne has had in years and RedBull is capable of winning poles and races. I see great value in having Kasey Kahne on your roster.

Photo credit - Getty Images for NASCAR

2009 OPeR Award: Best New NASCAR Rivalry

Everybody loves a NASCAR rivalry, it seems. Maybe even the rivals who are involved.

Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski developed one of the best ongoing battles in recent memory in 2009. And they kept a sense of humor about it too. Good stuff.

Runner up was the was the clash between Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers. But the verbal part of that one wasn’t as entertaining.

NASCAR Video from Bristol and a Martinsville Preview

We have some great NASCAR video snippets from the post race press conferences with Kyle Busch, Jimmy Johnson and Denny Hamlin for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway and several pre-race preview comments from Clint Bowyer, Bobby Labonte, Kurt Busch and Jeff Burton. Click here to watch them all.

These vids might just help you make your One and Done fantasy racing pick this week for the big paperclip.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Have a cigar, Jimmie Johnson. Go ahead, seriously. This year’s Chase is as good as over, and it’s your team that’s on top. All it takes is a 36th-place finish, and your fate is sealed as the first three-time champion since Cale Yarborough three decades ago.

In other words, thanks for taking the fun out of the Chase. (Just kidding.)

So we’re headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the Sprint Cup season finale, after which NASCAR’s stars take a two-month break from their day jobs. Homestead is typically a Roush Fenway Racing-dominated track, as their cars have won every race here since the Chase’s inception. Greg Biffle won in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and Matt Kenseth won last year.

Here’s how each of the 12 Chase drivers will do this week at Homestead:

1. Jimmie Johnson: He’ll just be trying to survive and wrap up that third title. Anything more than playing it safe will be a bonus.

2. Carl Edwards: If anything happens to Johnson (and even if it doesn’t), you can bet Cousin Carl will be gunning for the win at all times. If Johnson blows up on lap one and he leads the most laps and wins, the title’s his. With no more races left in the season, he might as well go for it.

3. Greg Biffle: Too bad Da Biff’s not still in the title hunt. This is by far his best track, and a three-man shootout between Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle would’ve been fun to watch.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s worst finish here with Roush was 14th in five starts. With RCR, his best finish is 8th (last year), with two finishes of 25th or worse in four starts. He won’t be as good in this car as he would be were he still at Roush.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t finished worse than 20th all Chase or at Homestead for his career. He hasn’t won since the 2007 Daytona 500, so don’t expect a win, but Harvick should be up towards the front to finish off the season.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only made two starts here, so it’s hard to tell based on his past experience, especially when his finishes are 10th and 39th. He’s been between 5th and 20th all Chase, though, so expect that to repeat.

7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon hasn’t had a winless season since his rookie year in 1993. While he’s never won at Homestead, he’s only finished worse than 10th twice in nine starts. He’s got nothing to lose by going for the victory. Then again, after qualifying 37th, he’ll have a ways to go.

8. Matt Kenseth: Roush car? Check. Defending race winner? Check. Trying to avoid a big fat zero in the win column for the year? Check. Kenseth’s going to push hard this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin: Here’s the real battle: the battle for the last seats at the end-of-season banquet. 9th through 12th places are separated by 31 points, and Hamlin leads the pack. If 3rd-place finishes each of the past two years mean anything, he’ll stay in the top 10.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior’s best finish at Homestead is 13th in his rookie season, and his average finish is 21.2 in eight starts. He’ll have to improve on that if he wants a seat at the banquet in December.

11. Kyle Busch: If anyone deserves to be on stage in New York this December, it’s a guy who completely ran away with the regular season. Too bad Busch’s track record at Homestead includes a best finish of 20th and an average finish of 33.0.

12. Tony Stewart: Cheers for ten great years with the Gibbs organization, Tony, and here’s to ten more with your own. I don’t expect you to do much this weekend, but enough to claim that final seat in New York for JGR.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Any of the Roush cars. Biffle’s got the track record, Kenseth’s defending the win from last year, and Edwards is going to do whatever it takes to set himself up for a title if Johnson falters. Bet on Edwards, with the others close behind, a la the Dover race a couple months ago.

Image credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Phoenix International Raceway

Sorry, guys. For some reason, I thought I posted my column last week, but when I looked for it here on the site, it was mysteriously not there. I picked the winner correctly, I called everybody but Jimmie Johnson irrelevant (oh, how wrong I was), and I even made reference to Tommy Tutone when I wrote about Denny Hamlin. So, of course, my best work goes for naught when I don’t actually end up putting it up for the world to see. (Then again, now I can recycle my “Denny, Denny, who can I turn to” next year.)

In other words, it looks like I had a massive brain fart. Or, as Jack Roush would suggest, I’ve had my “mulligan” for the Chase. Just read the best nine columns out of ten, right?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Phoenix:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Best average finish of every driver at Phoenix, incredible Chase, last guy to win here, blah, blah, blah. Johnson’s run last week, while not catastrophic, left the door open for Edwards. Then again, don’t be surprised if Jimmie comes through in the clutch. That’s what Team 48 does.

2. Carl Edwards: Carl’s average finish of 14.5 is negatively affected by the 42nd place he had at this race last year, when his engine let go in the first half of the race. That can’t happen again. Carl’s got a lot of momentum from the past two weeks, and he has a chance at winning four in a row and mimicking Johnson’s huge run at the end of last year. Given his record at Phoenix when things go right (5 top-10s), it’s definitely possible.

3. Greg Biffle: Da Biff is painfully average overall at Phoenix, with an average finish of 16.4, but the finishes themselves are often polarized. Biffle has two 2nd place finishes at the track, as well as two finished of 34th place or lower. The question is simply whether the team will have one of the former or the latter come race day. With the way the team’s been since the debacle at Talladega, look for the former.

4. Jeff Burton: Betcha didn’t know that JB’s got two wins here. It’s true - he won this race in 2000 and 2001. Betcha also had no idea that Burton’s worst finish at Phoenix in the past decade is 15th in fall 2005. His 11.1 average finish here is in the top five of all active drivers. There’s no reason he can’t pull off another decent finish.

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s only win at Phoenix was here in 2007, but he still has an average finish of 8.5. Here’s to hoping he wins this weekend, if only because winning at least once every year since 1994 is a huge accomplishment. His average finish of 8.5 is second only to Johnson.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer made his Cup debut at Phoenix, finishing 22nd in the spring of 2005. Since then, he’s only failed to complete eight laps at the track, and has two top-5s, including a 2nd place this spring. The team is a far cry from where they were at this time last year, but a 4th at Texas last week proves that they’re still capable of top finishes.

7. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t won at Phoenix since sweeping in 2006, but he’s also been a solid contender for the past few years. Since the spring of 2006, his average finish is an astounding 7.6 with four top-10s. Then again, Harvick’s only spent 23 laps at the front of the field all Chase, so don’t count on a momentum-based win.

8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 18.8 is due to an extreme polarization of finishes. When he’s good (a win in 2002, six top-10s), he’s good. When he’s bad (five finishes of 32nd or worse), he’s bad. Case in point: Kenseth led 93 laps to finish 3rd in this race last year, but finished 38th here this year in the spring. He’s a high-risk, high-reward pick, but given his last three finishes (average: 7.0), the reward may be there for the taking.

9. Tony Stewart: Stewart has been running at the finish all 13 times he’s started a Phoenix race. His average finish of 9.8 is tops among Toyota drivers, and he’s only finished worse than 18th once. Smoke wants to go out at Joe Gibbs Racing with a bang, and building on that impressive Phoenix resume would sure help. An interesting note: Stewart’s eight top-10s are as many as his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have combined for in the same amount of starts between them.

10. Kyle Busch: Cheers to Shrub regaining the final position at NASCAR’s end-of-season awards banquet - for now. Securing that seat, however, will require him to build on his somewhat stellar record at Phoenix. Busch has five top-10s in seven starts here, with the only exceptions coming in 2006. He’s led laps at the track before, and he’s been stellar in most of the past few races. There’s a chance that he might snag one more Cup win before the year is out.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: One point behind Busch for the final banquet spot, Junebug goes to a track where he has two wins, four top-5s, and six top-10s. He led 87 laps at Phoenix in the spring on the way to a 7th place finish. It’ll take another performance like that to bring him back into the top 10.

12. Denny Hamlin: I predict Hamlin will finish 3rd this weekend. Hey, when it’s happened three times in six starts at the track, it seems like a safe enough bet. For the record, his other finishes are 13th, 34th, and a 16th at this time last year.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Gordon’s due. Hendrick ought to do his best to give Gordon the best car on the track this weekend and keep that 14-year winning streak alive, even if it means making Johnson a bit more vulnerable for Homestead. Let’s make the title fight a real fight, boys.

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Atlanta Motor Speedway

I feel like a fool for picking Kyle Busch last week at Martinsville, when I had such obvious better choices in front of me (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin… the list goes on). I take no consolation in the fact that I called them “easy” or “cop-out” picks, because the fact is that I should have gone with one of them. I’m not making that mistake again this weekend.

Atlanta may be the best track for the 12 Chase drivers overall, because the drivers with the top eight finishing averages at Atlanta (excluding active drivers and those with under five starts) are all eligible for the championship. Only one of them, Kevin Harvick, has an average finish worse than 20.0, and he started his Atlanta career 1-for-1 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history. The bottom line is, since every Chaser is so good here, one has to examine momentum coming into the event before making any predictions. As has been most of the Chase, it’s all about who’s got the momentum.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Atlanta:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Nobody has more momentum going into the final four races of the season than Johnson, and everybody knows it. He won this race last year as part of a four-race winning streak that propelled him to his second consecutive championship. He’s also won four of the last eight races on the tour, including last week at Martinsville. He has the best average finish of active drivers at Atlanta, a 9.6. It’s getting old to write the same sorts of things about Johnson every week, so take this word of advice: Johnson has one of the best chances to win of anyone this weekend. (Duh.)

2. Greg Biffle: Da Biff had his second-best career finish at Martinsville last week, a lead-lap 12th. Given his abysmal track record there, the team’s spirits are high coming into Atlanta. He won the pole for this race last year and finished 4th here in the spring. In 2004 and 2005, when his team last performed at this level, his average finish was 7.0 in four starts. Another solid finish for Biffle seems to be in the cards, but will he continue to lose points to Johnson?

3. Jeff Burton: Usually 16.5 is a solid average finish at a track, but not when eight of your championship rivals rank ahead of you. Such is Burton’s predicament. He’s not helped by last week’s struggle, in which he wound up off the lead lap in 17th. A total of 13 top 10s and no DNFs at Atlanta since March 2003 are both good signs, but Burton also hasn’t led more than five laps in an Atlanta race since spring 1994, in his fifth career Sprint Cup start. A win is unlikely; a decent finish, however, isn’t out of the question.

4. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl would have won at Atlanta this spring if not for engine troubles. He’s only finished outside the top 10 at Atlanta twice, and although both of those were finishes of 40th or worse, Edwards is generally a pretty reliable bet here. Edwards seems poised to regain momentum after a 3rd place finish at Martinsville, and he certainly has a chance to capture win no. 7 of the season at Atlanta.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint has finished 6th in his past three starts at Atlanta, which makes him a reliable bet to finish well here again. He hasn’t finished any worse than 12th since Michigan, and although he hasn’t finished any better than 5th in that span of nine races, he’s been consistently towards the front. Don’t expect that to change for any reason.

6. Kevin Harvick: Here’s a shocker. Since his dramatic win in the spring of 2001 and a 3rd place finish that fall, Happy hasn’t finished in the top 5 at Atlanta. He didn’t even finish in the top 10 again until this spring. His average finish of 23.3 here is worst of all 12 Chase drivers. One reason for hope, however, is the fact that Harvick’s only finished outside the top 10 twice since the debacle at Indianapolis.

7. Jeff Gordon: It has been five years since Gordon’s won at Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a slouch here. Gordon’s average finish at Atlanta in his past six starts is a fantastic 6.0. Gordon’s led significant amounts of laps the past two weeks as well, and his desire to avoid his first winless season since 1993 is probably at its peak. Gordon could surprise this weekend – although, if you look at the team’s performance the past two weeks, it shouldn’t be a surprise at all.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke finished second here in the spring. Since the fall race in 2001, he’s only finished outside of the top 10 twice – a lead lap 17th in spring 2005 and a 30th in this race last year after losing oil pressure in the middle of the race. Most of Stewart’s momentum from Talladega is gone, however, after a 26th place run last week at Martinsville. Stewart should keep up his stout Atlanta record, but a win for the hometown sponsor might be a lot to ask.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug’s got a lot of momentum after having one of the strongest cars in the field at Martinsville. He has no chance at a championship, but he can certainly go out and steal some races from the contenders for the final month or so. His average finish of 8.7 in his past six starts here is certainly stout, and it would be higher if he didn’t crash late in this race last year and finish 25th. Important to note is that Earnhardt Jr. has four top 5s in those six starts, the best of which came at Atlanta in the spring. There’s no reason he can’t win this weekend.

10. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 6.2 with four top 10s in his last six starts here is one of the best in the business. His Chase has been terrible, with Martinsville last week one of the lone bright spots, but that gives the team a push to do well in these final four races. Although Kenseth’s never won at Atlanta and has only led 12 laps here in the past six years, he knows how to get to the finish without too many issues.

11. Denny Hamlin: Atlanta is one of the few tracks in the Chase where Hamlin has not consistently run well over his brief career. An 8th place finish in this race two years ago is the brightest spot on a record that includes four finishes of 19th or worse. It’s important to note that while Hamlin has only failed to complete six laps in his career at Atlanta, he’s only finished on the lead lap once. You can’t win a race if you can’t finish on the lead lap.

12. Kyle Busch: Shrub’s record at Atlanta looks like his record at a few other tracks: Save a fantastic performance this spring, in which he won after leading 173 of 325 laps, he hasn’t done much in the way of top 10 finishes. However, he did lead 77 laps in this race last year, when he finished 20th. He also has three 12th place finishes, and has only failed to complete seven laps here since becoming a full-time Cup driver.

A brief aside: I feel really bad for Busch. Kyle’s 2008 has been one of the greatest seasons in NASCAR history, and the Chase format has robbed him of a chance to win his first well-earned championship. In this age of NASCAR parity, winning 20 out of the 73 races he’s contested in the face of adversity is quite the accomplishment. One can only hope that we’ll someday see another season this dominant (from a driver other than Jimmie Johnson, anyway – this sort of year seems to come naturally to him).

So who would I pick to win this weekend (other than Jimmie Johnson)? I have to go with Jeff Gordon. He’s got the same equipment as Johnson, he’s had a similar sort of career here, and he desperately wants to avoid a goose egg in the win column for this year.

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