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Wrapped up, but not wiped out

OK, so we’re one episode away from conclusion of the 2008 Jimmie Johnson show. All the Hendrick gear in my possession aside, even I’m bored with this. Nothing against JJ, Chad or crew, but even my 16 year old Baby Ruth T-shirt is fresher than this act. And it doesn’t even fit any more. While their accomplishments the past three seasons are nothing short of miraculous, and like it or not deserve all the press and praise, there’s one thing that comes to mind that a wide old man once told me.

“Luke, you just can’t eat a steak every night for life and not expect it to get old and lose it’s luster. Sometimes you just need a good chicken dinner to liven it up.”

While a beat off-beat, it rings true for many situations. Including this one. As remarkable of an accomplishment as this will be, barring something to knock Jimmie to a 37th or worse finish, fans are looking to the menu for some chicken.

They have shown it with empty seats at places which tend to sell out, or close to it. They have shown it through television ratings, as well as related purchases. While the current economic times play a part, those didn’t really enter the picture until mid to late summer where it would have a huge impact.

Many curse the Chase, although Johnson would still be leading by 56 points. That aside, he would only be heading to Championship #1, not #3.

I read an interesting article yesterday, with some interesting concepts on how bad it is and how it could be fixed. Problem being: “One must recognize, and accept, there is a problem before work can begin to fix it.” — Luke

A few decent ideas thrown around, for sure.

So while we witnessed the last to final episode of the 2008 season of the Jimmie and Chad show, it wasn’t all about the Chasers.

Jamie McMurray continued his romp and stomp with another Top-5 and 3rd place finish. Kurt Busch, hanging it all out, finished second, with David Ragan closing out the Top-10. 30% of your Top-10 were not in the Chase. Surprise, surprise.

With fond memories (thank you Truck Series) from Phoenix in our rear view mirrors, we’re pulling into Homestead with one thing on everyone’s mind. Vacation. Yes, you read that right. Time off. No tracks, no press, no worries. At least for a few days anyway, as work for 2009 has already begun. Think I’m kidding? Kurt Busch and company tested this past Tuesday at the new half-mile “Little Rock”, at Rockingham, getting ready for 2009. No joke.

Homestead is, well, it’s a track. Much like many others composing the meat of the current schedule. It’s a 1.5 mile “cookie-cutter”, and it’s owned by ISC. There you have it. In an effort to improve racing they put in graduated banking, seeing action for the first time in 2003. Las Vegas did the same thing just 2 years ago, in fact. While the show improved, it’s about like watching Johnson hoist the Cup this Sunday.

The cookie track that tried, tried, and tried again has been the “House of Roush” for years. In fact, Greg Biffle is 3 for 4 in the past 4 years here, only losing out to Matt Kenseth in the 2007 showdown when he beat Kurt Busch to the line by .852 seconds. Biffle wound up 13th.

If one had to put some non-Chasers in the Top-10, you can’t help but pick Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. With momentum and history coming into play, they’re odds on favorites to crack the Top-10.

Kurt Busch again? I’m not so sure. Top-20, maybe, but he’s pulling an average just inside the Top-30 for tracks of this nature this year. Needless to say, when they’re on, they’re on. When they’re off, they’re really off. There hasn’t really been an in between at this type of track for the #2 Dodge.

Looking for that ever elusive third possibility, I’ll throw you two and you can take your pick. It’s not out of the question that it could be Kasey Kahne or Travis Kvapil. Yes, I said Travis Kvapil.

Come back next week for the final wrap up on what was the non-Chase 2008.

Roush Fenway Fords Enjoy November Sun in Homestead

While only winning the championship in 2004, the Roush Fenway Fords are dominant at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Greg Biffle won this race three years running and Matt Kenseth capped off the season one year ago with a win. To add to the fun for the Cat in the Hat, Carl Edwards has a very good record here and David Ragan has a top 10 in his first start here last year. For Roush, those are good odds.

The championship is obviously the big story at Homestead, but every year the margin of victory is getting larger. From the incredible drama of Kurt Busch’s 2004 season to Tony Stewart’s and Jimmie Johnson’s solid if unspectacular runs in the years following, the championship chase is still must-watch television and the redesigned Homestead track deserves a lot of the credit. This year almost certainly promises to see Johnson do what only Cale Yarborough has done in NASCAR’s top series unless something freakish happens to the normally unflappable #48 team.

Paging David Gilliland, remember where your engines come from… anyway, lets get a look at the numbers.

The winners:
2007 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Greg Biffle
2005 – Greg Biffle
2004 – Greg Biffle

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 7th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 9th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 15th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

Let’s see, let me find a Roush Fenway driver that has had the best season this and won on similar 1.5 mile tracks… oh yeah, if you’re not anticipating Carl Edwards leading nearly every lap and winning this thing Sunday night, I’ll take whatever odds there are for the race. Aside from Edwards, Biffle does have a track record of winning here and could easily do it again.

The two sleepers I’ve pegged for this race are Ragan and Jamie McMurray. Both drivers have performed admirably in the final stretch of the year. The season finale always produces surprises, it should be interesting to see what happens this year. Among the one-off entrants are Brad Keselowski and Mark Martin, and the end of A.J. Allmendinger’s run in the #10.

Finally, it’s been a pleasure to write this weekly column for On Pit Row. I want to thank Steve and Charlie for all of their hard work and I look forward to continuing my contributions to the Bench Racing blog. Journey provides the season finale with the classic karaoke song Don’t Stop Believin’. YouTube is your friend. This won’t be like the Sopranos finale when the music just stops before the

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Thank You Jamie. CC: Cousin Carl

We’ll start this week with a quote from another famous Champion by the name of The Nature Boy, “Wooooooooooo!”

I’d like to thank Jamie Mac for so graciously contributing to the bills in the infield, with one of the strongest runs in his tenure at Roush. He was there all… damn… day. Hammer down, and had some of them crazy Chasers not played the gas card he’d have laid the smack down in Texas. Bottoms up, to that one.

I’d also like to thank ol’ Cousin Carl, for his performance on Saturday. He too helped offset a little adventure of full speed adrenaline at 180mph for 4 laps around the track. Courtesy of Team Texas, of course. Wow.

I’d also like to thank Ron Hornaday. Not only will my laptop carry a high resale value for just being a kick ass Mac, but now the (soon to be, you betcha) back to back Truck Champion adorns it for all to see. As Terrible Terry Tate once said, “Nice play baby!”

Martin Truex held himself in the Top-10 by the end, 6 places behind his starting spot.

Rounding out the Top-10 was none other than Beak. Congrats Reut, ya earned it.

So now we’re moving from Texas Twisters to those Arizona Rattlers out on the hill. Well, actually last weekend it was earthquakes (no kidding, folks), but that’s beside the point.

Looking back, Mark Martin and Martin Truex both ran strong here last spring. They were the only two in the Top-10 who are not currently in the Chase. And since we’re covering the other 31 drivers out there, we’ll carry on.

Jamie McMurray wasn’t too far out of the Top-10, and considering his current momentum he could sneak it in. That team has been pulling it together, and the results are finally showing. It was an interesting read from Marty Smith on this one earlier, check it out if you get a chance.

There were a few other surprises out there last spring as well. Juan Pablo, Bobby Labonte, and David Gilliland were all in the Top-16, Reutimann was 18th as well.

If you want momentum, bring in David Ragan, Jamie Mac and David Reutimann. From there, who knows. It’s Phoenix. Even being a quarter mile longer than Richmond, for some reason it’s always reminded me of Richmond after being flipped around to make the front the back and the back the front. Although the comparisons end there. Not to mention it’s a 500, but measured in kilometers? Never made a lick of sense to me, but hey, whatever. Drop the flag, get it on, and let’s go racing.

Oh and one more thing, be sure to thank your Office Linebacker as the season draws to a close.

This Ain’t Run’s House…

This Ain’t Run’s House, Or Anyone Else’s Either. Other than the Thunder Lounge, of course, but we’re talking on the track. Let’s check Atlanta’s top non-chasers, then move onto bigger and better things.

Well neither Vickers nor Bobby Labonte did any spoiling at Atlanta last weekend. Jamie McMurray sure did though, with a nice 7th place run, and right in front of teammate David Ragan. Crossing the stripe right before Jamie was Kurt Busch. Both he and Jamie getting a little redemption from Martinsville.

While we leave the warm-up for this weekend behind, we’re not going to Run’s house.

Actually, we’re not going to anyone’s house. Texas isn’t like Charlotte, where you could call it Johnson’s house. Texas has seen very few repeat winners since coming onto the scene in 1997. In other words, the checkers are fair game for all.

The big winner in Texas sure ain’t the Cowboys. Ever see that clip after last season on YouTube? If you have, you know what we’re talking about.

One big winner has to be Babe’s Chicken. If you make it down here, find ‘em.

Oh, that’s right… we’re talking racing.

So here we come to Texas, and wondering which non-chaser has the opportunity to make a showing.

As much as I hate to say it, those that ran well at Atlanta have a good shot at doing so again. While differences exist between the two, it’s a good possibility for more of the same. If you’re betting against Johnson, it’s going to take bad luck to slow his roll anytime soon.

So who can swipe some points this week? Jamie Mac’s a good bet. Other than that it’s Texas, and you’d better know when to run.

When Jimmie Goes Down To Georgia

I’m shameless, really. When it comes to NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson has become Mr. October in nearly every sense. While he’ll never be Reggie Jackson, he has been incredible in the October Chase races, which have used Atlanta as the bookend. Every year this race focuses mainly on the Chase drivers and some of the great racing is missed. Maybe ABC will take a cue from that and show the race.

Chase drivers tend to mix in with other drivers at Atlanta, I’ve noticed. Tony Stewart won in 2006, when he also won at Kansas and just aimed for wins during the Chase. One of my favorite victory lane moments came here in that race, when Stewart climbed the fence to celebrate, mingled with the fans in the stands, then told the interviewer that the hat he was wearing came from a fan that gave it to him – one of those old hats that was torn from use, not for design. I felt compelled to share that right here. Equipment will be something to watch here as it really strains the engine. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards will all hope for something like that to happen.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Tony Stewart
2005 – Carl Edwards
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 9th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 42nd

I’ve started the last 2 race winners and they’ve delivered 2 wins. Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this! It’s so tempting to say Jimmie Johnson 12 times and be done with it, but…

JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON

Or go with Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. At this point, they’re still the ones in position to make a move if the #48 ends up having trouble.

I desperately want David Ragan to win a race this season. His spring race here wasn’t great, but he has had a lot of solid runs on the intermediate tracks. Plus, it makes for a great story in addition the Chase coverage. As a backup, I’ll take Brian Vickers.

“The Devil Went Down To Georgia” by the incomparable Charlie Daniels Band is the song for this week. I guess the golden fiddle is the Sprint Cup and the devil is either Mike Helton or Brian France as they deal the cards.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Gentlemen, Roll Your Dice

Right. So Charlie says to Steve about 5 weeks ago, “We need a sucker to write up all the non-Chaser options for the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.” So Steve says, “Well, I owe Luke one, so let’s talk him into it. He’ll write anything, you know.”

So here we are. Suckered, er, convinced, into covering the 31 other possibilities for cracking the Top-10, and knocking Chasers into the lower points-per-position bracket.

Before we dig into what went down at Kansas, in terms of the Top-10 party, how about that finish? Sure, it wasn’t so hot until the last 50 or so laps, but from there on it was hammer down aggressiveness. All completed by a “Cole Trickle” style move for the win. Of course, that’s not the only time Cousin Carl has showed us an impression of Cole Trickle either. Anyone want to recall Michigan, and a little bit of screaming out of the pits?

On to the non-Chasers from Kansas.

Luke’s score from Kansas: 1 for 5. Let’s recap.

• Brian Vickers: 15th
• Mark Martin: 18th
• Beak: 19th
• Ryan Newman: 16th
• Elliott Sadler: 10th

At least we kept it in the top 20 this week.

It wasn’t all roses in the Top-10 however. It was only a 70% take for the Chasers.

Coming in with an 8th place showing was David Ragan, followed by A.J. Allmendinger in 9th, and the aforementioned Elliott Sadler closing out the Top-10.

If only Kasey Kahne had better studied Elliot’s setup, he wouldn’t have been 11 spots behind. Is it just me, or has the 9 team has been a bit behind the 8-ball since NASCAR reeled in the “crab walking” with the rear ends of the car? Maybe it’s just coincidence, but then again, maybe not.

So now we arrive at Talladega. Talk about a crapshoot. As we all know, anything can (and usually will) happen at Talladega. It’s the one track in the Chase that puts knots in Chasers stomachs, and boogeymen under their beds.

Here’s your three good options for ‘Dega, that not only have the chance of being in the Top-10 when the smoke clears, but also take an outside shot at the win:

Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and Kurt Busch.

OK, Vickers yet again. He’s performed pretty solid on the plate tracks, and his only win in the series came in this event in 2006.

David Ragan has surprisingly been a familiar face in the Top-10 for plate events as well this season, and the same goes for Kurt, despite an accident last July at Daytona.

When it comes to the plate tracks, just roll your dice. These tracks take more than stats into account, as one lone sneeze can kill a stat quicker than it takes to come out. That’s anywhere from 95 to 650 mph, according to Wikipedia, in case you were wondering.

That being the case, momentum on these types of tracks is important. Not just from recent weeks, but from recent plate races as well. And don’t let the qualifying results fool you. The chance of a Chaser hitting the pole is slim, as it’s an impound race and most teams in the Top-35 will be focusing solely on race runs. This is one place where you won’t hear teams talking about qualifying for track position, for once.

When the checkers fall, how will your dice roll have turned out? Will they be shaken up like the points could be?

It’s a Biffle Bash

Wow. Who would have predicted anything close to what has transpired thus far in the 2008 Chase? Pipe down Marc, no you didn’t.

• David Ragan: 18th, 1 lap down
• Ryan Newman: Worked up to 13th. Too bad this isn’t Horseshoes.
• David Reutimann: Had it, then a late pit error cost him a Top-10. After the penalty, he fought back to 17th. The first car 1 lap down.
• Brian Vickers: Never a factor, finished 31st.

How about Mikey? Nice run there, fella. Were you mad at something? Try it again sometime, and you’ll beat that speed limit.

Speaking of the 31st, that’s Halloween you know. Anyone know where the best NASCAR Halloween Party is going to be? Keep an eye out as we clear the dust off of Thunder Lounge, and prep to throw a Texas sized party in the infield.

So we’re darn sure in Kansas now, Toto. All bets are off for this one.

Historically speaking, Kansas has been a track that has been kind to those not in the Chase. Even as recent as last year, Mr. “Last Two” here took home the victory in nothing less that what is still considered a fiasco of a race. Remember all the smoke about Stewart missing the Chase? He won here then, too.

Can the streak of Chaser victories end at 2?

He’s bit me twice, but finished 6th at the same track back in July. Well, OK, it’s different in name, but what’s the difference between a chocolate chip cookie and a double chocolate chip cookie? They’re both chocolate chip cookies. Brian Vickers stands a chance to take some points.

Is that “Kid” Martin racing this week? That sneeky ol’ cat can hang it out on such tracks as well.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Beak is coming. And he stands a fair chance of doing very well here.

If you’re looking at outside sneaking in, Ryan Newman or Elliott Sadler could pull a fast one and mix it up with the Top-10 as well.

Thus far, with 20% of the big enchilada gone by, it’s all Chasers, all the time. How about that Roush Sandwich that was made out of Jimmie Johnson, right before Jack Roush swept the Top 3 at Dover last weekend? Sandwich downed, how about those three Roushketeers mixing it up and battling for the win? This car has it’s moments, hopefully more to come.

What we have seen thus far this season, is the same thing we’ve seen most of the season leading up to the Chase. The guys in the Chase are the ones consistently running up front. Getting the Top-5’s and 10’s, and bagging the wins. But that wasn’t always the case, and with 31 other cars on the track, it’s 31 vs. 12, and they’re hungry for that win as well.

Why David Ragan Missed the Chase

 

Chasers are 1 for 1: Let the nightmares of Monsters begin

A congrats are in order for Greg Biffle, for taking the first Chase win for 2008.

Getting down to business, let’s get a quick summary of who crashed the Chase party at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and review last weeks “predictions“.

• Prediction 1: Martin Truex Jr.
  Finishing in a respectable 7th place. Luke: 1 for 1;
• Prediction 2: Brian Vickers
  Finishing a dismal 35th, thanks to getting the ol’ T-Bone from David Gilliland. Luke: 1 for 2;
• Prediction 3: David Reutimann
  Finishing decent in 15th, there were 28 other competitors who would have loved to trade spots. Not too shabby, Beak. Keep on keepin’ on. Luke: 1 for 3; (Half credit? Almost count?)

Now on to this weeks job. Taming the Monster Mile of Dover International Speedway.

Our first spoiler lead off last week as well. Now we’re to the home track of Martin Truex Jr., and he would love to take those checkers here at Dover. If you had to place a wager on tracks this team goes the extra mile for, this is certainly one of them. Finishing a strong 6th here in June, look for that to remain the case as he takes a Top10 from a Chaser.

David Ragan is looking for a bit of redemption after finishing 28th last week. David had a Top-15 here in June, and certainly has the capability for improvement by sneaking into the Top-10.

Ryan Newman needs a finish. Is he too distracted thinking of greener pastures? Perhaps, but it’s about time he had something solid. No stranger to the challenge of the Monster Mile.

There are several other possibilities for taking valuable Top-10 points from a Chaser. David Reutimann, or even Brian Vickers, but then again they have that potential just about any given week as of late. Potential doesn’t mean Top-10, however, as we find out week in and week out.

Dover offers a unique challenge. Steve will tell you it’s the concrete. Some will say it’s the banking. For me, I think the challenge comes from keeping it together for 400 miles while running at high speeds in what could be called Bristol’s big brother.

Those who can keep it focused for the distance will have the highest chances of success here. There’s a lot of time spent in the corners, and the constant battering of G-forces can take their toll. Keep your head in it, remain focused, and breathe when you can and you may just tame that Monster.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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