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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Bristol - Jeff Byrd 500

Now that the off-weekend has passed, the Sprint Cup Series will have points-paying races for the next two months straight. In honor of the passing of Bristol Motor Speedway’s long-time president and general manager last October, the event at “The Bullring” this weekend will be named the Jeff Byrd 500 Presented by Food City. Five-hundred laps are set to be run on this 0.533-mile racetrack, and there should be very few that aren’t exciting. Only one of the past five races here have gone past the scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At Bristol…Kyle Busch started 19th but quickly made his way to the front and wound up leading 282 laps before taking the checkered flag–his fourth win at this track. To the surprise of many, David Reutimann backed up his top five qualifying effort with a 2nd-place finish, while Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five. The spring race at Bristol saw Jimmie Johnson get the win, even though Kurt Busch led the most laps that day (278).

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…This is the week to take an underdog or two, as it seems one of them always finds their way to the front (Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose come to mind). On Friday, a practice session will be held (disregard these speeds) and then qualifying. There will then be two practices held on Saturday, which will help you get an idea of who is fast because they will all be in race trim. Starting position definitely helps on this track, but if a driver has a good car and starts in the back, he should be able to stay on the lead lap and eventually get up to the front. During the last race at Bristol, half of the top ten finishers started outside of the top ten.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kyle Busch - Remember a few weeks ago at Phoenix how good Jimmie Johnson was at that track? Same thing here at Bristol with Kyle Busch. “Rowdy” has won three of the past five races at this short track, and his other two finishes were 2nd and 9th. In those five starts, Kyle has led 45.7% of the laps ran. His best starting spot in his career here is 9th, though, so don’t expect a pole run on Friday. Since 2006, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 17th–and that was his only run outside of the top ten. His career average finish of 9.3 at Bristol is best in the series. You will gain major points by leaving Busch off your roster if something happens to him–as most people this week will pick him–but are you willing to take that risk?

2. Kurt Busch - Like “Shrub”, Kurt Busch is an awesome pick at Bristol as well. From 2002 through 2004, the elder Busch brother won four races here in five starts. I made the mistake of leaving him off my fantasy rosters during that time, trying to gain major points in the off-chance his wins were a fluke. They weren’t. Kurt’s results haven’t been as good since joining Penske Racing, but they haven’t been terrible either. He’s on a streak of three top 10s at Bristol and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 since the spring race in 2007. Look for the points leader to  have another solid top ten finish this week, if not a top five.

3. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was just one of three drivers to score five top 10s in the six short track races last year. He’s also off to a very hot start this season, with a win last week in Las Vegas and cars capable of winning in all three races (according to him anyway). He’s won here at Bristol twice and posted finishes of 12th and 6th in 2010. Since 2006, Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 16th. Will the 99 team bring another super-fast Ford to Tennessee this week?

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you would have told me before Daytona that Junior would have two top tens (and one of them wasn’t at Daytona) and be 10th in points after three races, I would have called you crazy, but lo and behold, it’s true. The team switches at Hendrick Motorsports seem to have benefited Dale Jr the most–thus far–and he’s on a roll coming into his best track (statistically). Little E hasn’t finished worse than 18th since 2001 and has collected one win at this track (coming in 2004). His career average finish here is 11.5 and his last three finishes at “The Bullring” have been 13th, 7th, and 9th. This ranking may be high to some, but Junior is off to a great start this season and definitely knows how to get around this track (he had seven top 10s in eight starts from 2004 to 2008). I think Junior’s momentum will translate into a top five this week (and maybe even a win).

5. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” won the pole here last April, but it was Kyle Busch who went on to win the race. Johnson led 175 laps but finished a disappointing 35th in that race because he got wrecked by Juan Montoya. Jimmie’s previous three starts before last fall gave him finishes of 1st, 8th, and 3rd, but from 2005 to 2008 (eight races) he had only two top ten finishes. I think there are better picks than Johnson this week, but it’s hard to go against a guy who has won five straight championships. I don’t think the 48 team has been running very well at all in 2010, either, so pay attention to the car in practice. Johnson has started in the top five in three of the last four races in “Thunder Valley” and has had the second-best driver rating over that span, though, so it’s not like he hasn’t ran well at this track.

6. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” won’t lead a bunch of laps, but don’t be surprised if he posts a solid finish around 6th. In the past seven races at Bristol, Newman has finished 6th or 7th in five of them. When he doesn’t have strong race, though, it’s usually a pretty bad finish (in eight finishes outside of the top ten, six of them have been 30th or worse). The 39 Chevrolet has two straight top tens, and you know I like momentum early in the season.

7. Greg Biffle - “The Biff” disappointed many fantasy owners last week–well, I guess it was his gas man–but don’t expect another sub-par finish this week. The 16 Ford found the top ten in both Bristol races in 2010, and in six of the past eight (the other two were 39th and 11th-place efforts). Biffle has made sixteen career starts in “Thunder Valley” and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. This is his second-best track statistically behind Kansas. Good pick this week? Yes, as long as they got that fuel problem figured out over the break.

8. Matt Kenseth - Like Biffle, this Roushkateer was on a bunch of rosters in Vegas but didn’t have that great of a race. I expect Kenseth to have a good week in Bristol, though: he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s here and has finished there in five of the last six. I have liked the Roush-Fenway Fords in the first three races of 2011, and that hasn’t changed this week. Kenseth won here in 2006, but since then he hasn’t led a lap at “The Bullring” and just one top five. As usual with the 17, pick him if he qualifies near the front (top 15).

9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a great season in 2010, but his Bristol races were less than stellar (19th and 34th-place finishes). Before that, though, he had four straight finishes between 2nd and 6th. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate is arguably the best here, so one can expect those two teams to help each other. Denny changed an engine last week and came back to record a solid top ten, and they say Las Vegas is the place to start streaks. One food for thought, though: is there something wrong with the Gibbs engines? In addition to Hamlin having to switch engines last week, teammate Joey Logano had engine difficulties in Phoenix and the other Gibbs racer, Kyle Busch, blew an engine at Vegas.

10. Jeff Burton - Does anybody need a good run more than this guy? I know I said the same thing last week, but when will the bad luck end (if you even consider this luck)? Burton is 32nd in points after last week’s 21st-place run at Las Vegas, right in front of Casey Mears by five points (even though Mears has started one less race). I’d like to see the 31 crew look more competitive thus far in the season to recommend him, but the spring race has been kind to them recently: the last four March races have given Burton top tens in each, including a win (2008) and a runner-up finish (2007). One last note: make sure the 31 Chevrolet is fast before putting it on your final roster, though.

11. Jeff Gordon - I expect Gordon will qualify well (his career average start here is 6.8) but won’t stay up front very long. In the last eight races here, Gordon has led only eleven laps, and while he has five wins in “Thunder Valley,” the last one was in 2002. In the last seven races here, Gordon owns just two top tens. He finished 11th and 14th here in 2010, and I think he will fall in right around there on Sunday. Jeff has won five poles at Bristol, though, so he could gain you some valuable bonus points in the Yahoo! game.

12. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is usually hit or miss at Bristol, but I love picking him when he’s on a roll and I love picking drivers that have momentum to start the season. After last week’s disappointing 2nd-place finish, Stewart comes into a track where he has won before (in 2001) and owns eight top 10s. He finished runner-up to Johnson in the spring race last year and from 2006 to 2008 Stewart led over 30% of the laps ran on this 0.533-mile track. He knows how to get around here, but he will be a risky pick this week. Watch him in practice, and if he is fast in average practice speed, pick him (trust me).

13. Kevin Harvick - If you read anything I said about Harvick in the off-season, you know I don’t expect a lot out of him this year. He’s had good runs, but like his teammate Burton, luck hasn’t been on Happy’s side (but his performance at Phoenix was very impressive). Harvick has one win (2005) and has finished runner-up four times at Bristol, but hasn’t cracked the top ten in the last four races. His career average finish here is 12.3, though, so he knows how to get around the track.

14. Clint Bowyer - He doesn’t have a top ten this season yet, but that could change this weekend. Bowyer ran 4th in the fall race here in 2010 and during the four races in 2007 and 2008, he rattled off four straight top tens. Clint’s best finish at Bristol has been 3rd, which he has done twice (that is also his best starting spot). In ten career races in “Thunder Valley,” Bowyer has usually finished around 16th while starting around 20th.

15. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s average finish in his first four starts at this track was an impressive 7.3, but over the next twelve races, that quickly plummeted to 18.3. He has had good runs here recently, though, with top ten finishes in both Bristol races in 2010 and an 11-th place effort in the fall race during the 2009 season. I doubt he’ll get a top ten this week, but a top fifteen isn’t out of the question.

Underdogs Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Marcos Ambrose - As you may know, I love keeping Ambrose in my mind when it comes to short tracks. The Tasmanian posted two top ten finishes here in his first two starts, but slipped back last year with 33rd and 20th-place efforts. Will he return to 2009 form? They say Las Vegas is a place to start streaks, and Ambrose had an awesome run there.

Paul Menard - I don’t think many people expected Menard to be 6th in points after three races, or be the best driver (thus far) in the Richard Childress Racing stable. Coming off a 12th-place finish at Vegas, I could see Menard getting a career-best finish at Bristol (his current one is 16th in 2008). He has finished worse than 25th only once in seven career starts in “Thunder Valley”.

David Reutimann - He ran strong here the last time the series visited the track, finishing 2nd to Kyle Busch. Will he be able to repeat that performance? Reutty got his best finish of the season in Las Vegas, coming home 13th. He usually qualifies well at Bristol and the last four races here have given Reutimann finishes of 2nd, 38th, 17th, and 12th. A solid top twenty is expected.

Brad Keselowski - Believe it or not, Bristol is Keselowski’s fourth-best track (statistically). He’s raced here twice and finished 19th and 13th. Kurt Busch put some up great runs in the “Blue Deuce” at this track, can BK continue the tradition?

Those To Avoid Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Mark Martin - I have been on the Martin “bandwagon” for the last eight or so Sprint Cup races, but I am officially jumping off. It’s obvious he got the short end of the stick at Hendrick, as his finishes have been average at best this season (even though it usually seems it has a good car). Martin has won the pole here in two of the past four races, so you may pick him to get the bonus points in the Yahoo! game, but I think this week will yield another disappointing ending for Mark Martin fantasy owners: he has just three top tens in his past sixteen Bristol starts.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” may look like a good pick this week based on his qualifying efforts at Bristol (average start of 8.8 in four starts), but don’t let that fool you: he’s never finished on the lead lap here and his best finish is 18th. The 20 crew needs a good week to turn their season around, but I don’t see that happening in “Thunder Valley”.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger’s last two spring starts at Bristol have given him 17th and 16th-place finishes, but his five other starts have seen him end up worse than 30th. A.J. slipped in the points after Las Vegas, and I expect him to fall a little further once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

Bobby Labonte - Labonte should settle into his expected final points position after this week. Ambrose put up a good run in this car last year, but Bobby couldn’t even figure out this track when he was in his prime. In 36 starts at Bristol, Labonte has just ten top tens and an average finish of 20.4.

Anything can happen at Bristol, so don’t take it too hard if you have a bad fantasy week (we all have a couple). Don’t forget to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well.

2009 OPer Awards: Worst NASCAR Team

I’m sorry Junior Nation. Your boy’s team sucked in 2009.

The Hendrick Motorsports team was the exception that made the rest of that organization’s dominance of Sprint Cup 2009 season seem sort of mortal.

But the combination that was the no. 88 Amp Energy-National Guard team was like the old “Gang that couldn’t shoot straight”.

Who knows where the blame should go. Dale Earnhardt Jr gets way more than his share. But it didn’t cost him his job. Tony Eury Jr got a bunch of the flack too. And a pink slip.

Brad Keselowski ON PIT ROW

Brad Keselowski, driver of the no. 88 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet for Dale Earnhardt Jr’s JR Motorsporsts in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series joined Steve an I ON PIT ROW this week. We talked about driving for Junior and Brad’s opportunities in the Sprint Cup Series with Hendrick Motorsports too. Check it out.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler for ON PIT ROW

Play Rattles From the Catch Can II: Win The Blount Report

NASCAR picked a lousy week to take off. At least for me. I’m pretty sure the teams aren’t having any problem with it. But talking and writing and complaining about the Kingdom of France helps me keep my mind off of more serious issues. It can get a bit depressing out here in the world lately.

So I decided it was time for another quiz. A second, Rattles from the Catch Can quiz to be more descriptive. You can play it right here.

If you do play, leave your email address when you’re finished and we’ll put your name in the hat - or I guess the Catch Can would be more appropriate - and the winner will get a copy of Terry Blount’s new book, “The Blount Report”.  Terry was a guest ON PIT ROW a couple weeks ago. The book is his take on the most underrated and overrated drivers, tracks, races and rules in NASCAR. I’ve read it. It will get your blood pumping, for sure.

2008 OPeR Award: Worst Crew Chief

I was surprised at the unanimity of agreement on this one. I guess it points out, in a way, just how much pressure having NASCAR’s most popular figure - Dale Earnhardt Jr - as your driver. 

Tony Eury Jr DID get Junior and his no. 88 Amp Energy Drink/National Guard Chevy into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. They won a qualifying race at Daytona, the Budweiser Shootout and the first 2008 race at Michigan International Speedway. That is not, by my definition, a failure of a season.

But I voted right along with Steve and Marc and Matt. Better win it all in 2009 Tony.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Owner/Team

All right all you fans of the Coach and the Cat in the Hat, bring it on. But you will not convince me that, in 2008 - and ‘06 and ‘07 too - Joe Gibbs, Jack Roush or anyone else was the equal of Mr Hendrick in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series.

A third straight championship probably would have been enough, but throw in the recruitment and successful integration of NASCAR’s biggest box-office star, Dale Earnhardt Jr, the addition for ‘09 of Hall-of-famer Mark Martin (full time too) and a satellite team that includes Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

That’s Earnhardt Jr, Stewart, Martin, Newman to go with the seven Cup Championships of  Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson. We rest our case, your Honor.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Have a cigar, Jimmie Johnson. Go ahead, seriously. This year’s Chase is as good as over, and it’s your team that’s on top. All it takes is a 36th-place finish, and your fate is sealed as the first three-time champion since Cale Yarborough three decades ago.

In other words, thanks for taking the fun out of the Chase. (Just kidding.)

So we’re headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the Sprint Cup season finale, after which NASCAR’s stars take a two-month break from their day jobs. Homestead is typically a Roush Fenway Racing-dominated track, as their cars have won every race here since the Chase’s inception. Greg Biffle won in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and Matt Kenseth won last year.

Here’s how each of the 12 Chase drivers will do this week at Homestead:

1. Jimmie Johnson: He’ll just be trying to survive and wrap up that third title. Anything more than playing it safe will be a bonus.

2. Carl Edwards: If anything happens to Johnson (and even if it doesn’t), you can bet Cousin Carl will be gunning for the win at all times. If Johnson blows up on lap one and he leads the most laps and wins, the title’s his. With no more races left in the season, he might as well go for it.

3. Greg Biffle: Too bad Da Biff’s not still in the title hunt. This is by far his best track, and a three-man shootout between Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle would’ve been fun to watch.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s worst finish here with Roush was 14th in five starts. With RCR, his best finish is 8th (last year), with two finishes of 25th or worse in four starts. He won’t be as good in this car as he would be were he still at Roush.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t finished worse than 20th all Chase or at Homestead for his career. He hasn’t won since the 2007 Daytona 500, so don’t expect a win, but Harvick should be up towards the front to finish off the season.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only made two starts here, so it’s hard to tell based on his past experience, especially when his finishes are 10th and 39th. He’s been between 5th and 20th all Chase, though, so expect that to repeat.

7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon hasn’t had a winless season since his rookie year in 1993. While he’s never won at Homestead, he’s only finished worse than 10th twice in nine starts. He’s got nothing to lose by going for the victory. Then again, after qualifying 37th, he’ll have a ways to go.

8. Matt Kenseth: Roush car? Check. Defending race winner? Check. Trying to avoid a big fat zero in the win column for the year? Check. Kenseth’s going to push hard this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin: Here’s the real battle: the battle for the last seats at the end-of-season banquet. 9th through 12th places are separated by 31 points, and Hamlin leads the pack. If 3rd-place finishes each of the past two years mean anything, he’ll stay in the top 10.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior’s best finish at Homestead is 13th in his rookie season, and his average finish is 21.2 in eight starts. He’ll have to improve on that if he wants a seat at the banquet in December.

11. Kyle Busch: If anyone deserves to be on stage in New York this December, it’s a guy who completely ran away with the regular season. Too bad Busch’s track record at Homestead includes a best finish of 20th and an average finish of 33.0.

12. Tony Stewart: Cheers for ten great years with the Gibbs organization, Tony, and here’s to ten more with your own. I don’t expect you to do much this weekend, but enough to claim that final seat in New York for JGR.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Any of the Roush cars. Biffle’s got the track record, Kenseth’s defending the win from last year, and Edwards is going to do whatever it takes to set himself up for a title if Johnson falters. Bet on Edwards, with the others close behind, a la the Dover race a couple months ago.

Image credit: Icon Sports Media

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Phoenix International Raceway

Sorry, guys. For some reason, I thought I posted my column last week, but when I looked for it here on the site, it was mysteriously not there. I picked the winner correctly, I called everybody but Jimmie Johnson irrelevant (oh, how wrong I was), and I even made reference to Tommy Tutone when I wrote about Denny Hamlin. So, of course, my best work goes for naught when I don’t actually end up putting it up for the world to see. (Then again, now I can recycle my “Denny, Denny, who can I turn to” next year.)

In other words, it looks like I had a massive brain fart. Or, as Jack Roush would suggest, I’ve had my “mulligan” for the Chase. Just read the best nine columns out of ten, right?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Phoenix:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Best average finish of every driver at Phoenix, incredible Chase, last guy to win here, blah, blah, blah. Johnson’s run last week, while not catastrophic, left the door open for Edwards. Then again, don’t be surprised if Jimmie comes through in the clutch. That’s what Team 48 does.

2. Carl Edwards: Carl’s average finish of 14.5 is negatively affected by the 42nd place he had at this race last year, when his engine let go in the first half of the race. That can’t happen again. Carl’s got a lot of momentum from the past two weeks, and he has a chance at winning four in a row and mimicking Johnson’s huge run at the end of last year. Given his record at Phoenix when things go right (5 top-10s), it’s definitely possible.

3. Greg Biffle: Da Biff is painfully average overall at Phoenix, with an average finish of 16.4, but the finishes themselves are often polarized. Biffle has two 2nd place finishes at the track, as well as two finished of 34th place or lower. The question is simply whether the team will have one of the former or the latter come race day. With the way the team’s been since the debacle at Talladega, look for the former.

4. Jeff Burton: Betcha didn’t know that JB’s got two wins here. It’s true - he won this race in 2000 and 2001. Betcha also had no idea that Burton’s worst finish at Phoenix in the past decade is 15th in fall 2005. His 11.1 average finish here is in the top five of all active drivers. There’s no reason he can’t pull off another decent finish.

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s only win at Phoenix was here in 2007, but he still has an average finish of 8.5. Here’s to hoping he wins this weekend, if only because winning at least once every year since 1994 is a huge accomplishment. His average finish of 8.5 is second only to Johnson.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer made his Cup debut at Phoenix, finishing 22nd in the spring of 2005. Since then, he’s only failed to complete eight laps at the track, and has two top-5s, including a 2nd place this spring. The team is a far cry from where they were at this time last year, but a 4th at Texas last week proves that they’re still capable of top finishes.

7. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t won at Phoenix since sweeping in 2006, but he’s also been a solid contender for the past few years. Since the spring of 2006, his average finish is an astounding 7.6 with four top-10s. Then again, Harvick’s only spent 23 laps at the front of the field all Chase, so don’t count on a momentum-based win.

8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 18.8 is due to an extreme polarization of finishes. When he’s good (a win in 2002, six top-10s), he’s good. When he’s bad (five finishes of 32nd or worse), he’s bad. Case in point: Kenseth led 93 laps to finish 3rd in this race last year, but finished 38th here this year in the spring. He’s a high-risk, high-reward pick, but given his last three finishes (average: 7.0), the reward may be there for the taking.

9. Tony Stewart: Stewart has been running at the finish all 13 times he’s started a Phoenix race. His average finish of 9.8 is tops among Toyota drivers, and he’s only finished worse than 18th once. Smoke wants to go out at Joe Gibbs Racing with a bang, and building on that impressive Phoenix resume would sure help. An interesting note: Stewart’s eight top-10s are as many as his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have combined for in the same amount of starts between them.

10. Kyle Busch: Cheers to Shrub regaining the final position at NASCAR’s end-of-season awards banquet - for now. Securing that seat, however, will require him to build on his somewhat stellar record at Phoenix. Busch has five top-10s in seven starts here, with the only exceptions coming in 2006. He’s led laps at the track before, and he’s been stellar in most of the past few races. There’s a chance that he might snag one more Cup win before the year is out.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: One point behind Busch for the final banquet spot, Junebug goes to a track where he has two wins, four top-5s, and six top-10s. He led 87 laps at Phoenix in the spring on the way to a 7th place finish. It’ll take another performance like that to bring him back into the top 10.

12. Denny Hamlin: I predict Hamlin will finish 3rd this weekend. Hey, when it’s happened three times in six starts at the track, it seems like a safe enough bet. For the record, his other finishes are 13th, 34th, and a 16th at this time last year.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Gordon’s due. Hendrick ought to do his best to give Gordon the best car on the track this weekend and keep that 14-year winning streak alive, even if it means making Johnson a bit more vulnerable for Homestead. Let’s make the title fight a real fight, boys.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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