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Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Kansas Speedway

Fool me once, Greg Biffle, shame on you – but you’re not fooling me two weeks in a row. Neither are you, Matt Kenseth, my dark horse pick of last week, or Carl Edwards, who I called a “no-brainer,” or Jeff Gordon, who was “reasonably near the front” all day, just like I said. In other words, I had a heck of a week last week at Dover, when most of my picks finished right around where I expected them to.

Kansas, however, is a whole different animal. The Car of Today has never raced at the relatively new track, and as such, it’s a little more difficult to predict who’s going to finish where based on past races alone. A good barometer for where Chase drivers are going to finish might be the July race at Chicagoland Speedway, a track very similar in design to Kansas.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Kansas:

1. Carl Edwards: Carl didn’t finish too well at Chicagoland, ending up 32nd after falling a lap down, although he did lead with as little as 60 laps to go. He finished 3rd here in 2005 and 6th in 2006, although he crashed out with Tony Stewart last year and wound up 37th. Keep in mind that from the first race at Richmond until now, a span of 19 races, Carl has only finished outside of the top ten three times. Based on momentum alone, it’s hard to go wrong with picking Edwards this weekend.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie’s average starting position at Kansas is a fantastic 5.5, but his average finish is 12.0, and he hasn’t ever really contended for the win here except in 2006, when Stewart passed him with five laps to go. Johnson has been pretty hot since finishing 2nd at Chicagoland, however, so he should at least be good for a top 10 finish.

3. Greg Biffle: In the last 6 races at Kansas, Da Biff has the most points of anyone, with 849. He won here last year, and he’s won the last two races this year. He also finished 4th at Chicagoland this year. Nobody in the garage has more momentum coming into this weekend, and a career average finish of 11.0 (which bumps up to 6.0 if you only count his starts in Roush Fenway vehicles) says that Biffle will contend for three wins in a row on Sunday.

4. Jeff Burton: Aside from a 5th here in 2006, there hasn’t really been much for Burton to smile about at Kansas. It’s not exactly easy to predict where Burton will finish this week either, because his finishes have been all over the place since joining RCR: 15th in 2004, 28th in 2005, the aforementioned 5th in 2006, and 36th last year. Burton also only finished 19th at Chicagoland, despite starting the race 3rd. Be wary of the AT&T team this weekend, if only because Burton could either be a huge hit or huge miss this weekend.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy is 5th all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 827. He’s only failed to compete 109 laps at the track, and 107 were because his car overheated in 2004. In other words, Harvick is usually consistently towards the front at Kansas – although he’s never led more than 48 laps in a race, and his highest finish is 6th, he has an average finish of 13.0 when his car completes the race. Harvick also finished 3rd at Chicagoland this year. If you can pick up Harvick for insurance purposes, he shouldn’t let you down.

6. Clint Bowyer: Home track advantage? Clint’s finished 9th and 2nd in two starts at his home track, putting him third overall in that two-race span. In the Nationwide Series the past two years, he finished 5th in 2006 and 4th last year. He’s generally good at Chicagoland too, with an average finish of 13.7. One more kicker: Clint’s only failed to complete two laps from the first Michigan race up to now. Bowyer might be one of the smartest picks in the field for Sunday.

7. Tony Stewart: Stewart’s second all-time in points scored at Kansas, with 966 in 7 starts. Even though he wrecked out here last year with Edwards, but it’s his only finish at the track worse than 14th. His average finish is an excellent 11.1 with one win, two years ago. Stewart was also 5th at Chicagoland earlier this year. Expect Stewart to be up towards the front, if not contending for another victory, come Sunday.

8. Jeff Gordon: The only driver to outrank Stewart here at Kansas is Gordon, who’s scored 18 more points than Stewart in the same amount of starts. Keep in mind, that translates to an average finish of 10.6 (or, if you discount a failed fuel pump in 2006, an excellent 5.8) with two wins. He finished 11th in Chicagoland this year, leading 6 laps towards the beginning of the event. Gordon’s a great pick if you want a potential steal this weekend.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Seventh-best all time at Kansas with 810 points, Junebug’s only failed to complete two laps at Kansas since 2002. Although his best finish is 6th in 2002, his average finish is a respectable 17.1. Junior finished 16th at Chicagoland after starting 2nd, remaining on the lead lap all race. All signs point to a top-15 finish for Junior, if not a top-10, but don’t bet on a win.

10. Matt Kenseth: An average finish of 22.1 isn’t going to do much for you this weekend. Then again, when Kenseth’s on a hot streak coming into Kansas, he can pull off some decent finishes: in 2002, he finished 7th for his fourth straight top-10, and in 2005 he finished 5th, capping an eight race stretch in which his average finish was 7.3. Kenseth’s got some momentum from Dover and could surprise this weekend.

11. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin’s never finished on the lead lap at Kansas, despite only failing to complete four laps in three Cup starts at the track. He won’t wreck out, sure, but a best finish of 18th isn’t exactly top-tier material. Even in the Nationwide Series, his average finish is only 17.0 after three starts with no top-5 finishes. Hamlin also only finished 40th at Chicagoland this year, four laps down. Avoid him if you can.

12. Kyle Busch: Damaged goods – do not touch. Everyone knows about Shrub’s meltdown the past two races, finishing 34th at Loudon and 43rd at Dover. His average finish of 26.5 at Kansas, partially buoyed by wrecks in 2004 and 2007, doesn’t help matters. Busch may have won the Nationwide Series race here last year, but as we saw last week at Dover, Nationwide and Sprint Cup success do not go hand in hand. Even though Busch won at Chicagoland this year, that was during a period where the M&M’s team could do no wrong, winning six times in an 11-race stretch. Don’t even think about him.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Good things come in threes – each owner in the Chase has three cars in it, Johnson’s attempting to win his third championship, and I think Da Biff can pull off his third consecutive win this weekend. Clint Bowyer, given that Kansas is his home track, could be another solid pick to run up front. For a dark horse, if you can ever call him that, consider Jeff Gordon, the best driver of all-time at this track. Gordon’s another driver due for a win this season, and Kansas may be his best opportunity yet.

Why David Ragan Missed the Chase

 

Kansas Has Been Kind to Non-Chasers

Kansas Speedway can sort out the have and have-nots in the Chase for the Cup. Only once has a Chaser won in Kansas, but champs run strong in the race, along with their competitors for the title. Case in point: last season, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson finished 2-3 behind winner Greg Biffle. In 2005, Biffle and Carl Edwards finished 2-3, with champion Tony Stewart right behind them in 4th.

The winners:
2007 – Greg Biffle (non-Chaser)
2006 – Tony Stewart (non-Chaser)
2005 – Mark Martin
2004 – Joe Nemechek (non-Chaser)

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2005 – Tony Stewart 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch 6th

The hottest driver on the circuit right now is Biffle. He also just happens to be heading to the track that has suited him extremely well. Finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 12th, and 1st solidify his position. Could Biffle win three races in a row? It’s very likely. No driver is as hungry as he is right now. Biffle is bound and determined to go win all 10 races. He’ll have to contend with some hometown favorites to do that, of course. Both Edwards and Bowyer have extra motivation to win at Kansas – for Bowyer, it’s his hometown track. For Edwards, it’s close to his hometown in Missouri. Martin will also look to score a win at Kansas, the site of his last Sprint Cup win in 2005. The Army team seems to be running the best it has all year right now. Finally, the pattern of this race has gone Chevy-Ford-Chevy-Ford in the Chase. Will that hold form? Sunday we’ll see.

If you’re looking for sleepers, the driver with a surprisingly strong record at this track is Casey Mears. He has finishes of 8th, 2nd, and 4th since 2005. For those feeling brave, take a chance on young Joey Logano. Remember, his best finishes this year in the Nationwide Series have been on bigger tracks, including his poles at Nashville and Kentucky, along with his win at Kentucky – a 1.5 mile tri-oval similar to Kansas.

Finally, Kansas brings us closer to the end of the season. Kansas sorts out who still has a chance and who is racing for wins and more points money. We’re going back to the old-school with Tom Petty’s “Running Down A Dream.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Dover International Speedway

Okay, so last week I was completely wrong about Greg Biffle. I summed up his chances at Loudon with one word: “Yikes.” I was about right with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., the rest of the top 5, but I completely blew it on Biffle. Sorry, folks. I guess four out of five ain’t bad, though, right?

Staying on the lead lap is more important at Dover than almost anywhere else: in the three Car of Today races at the track, the last car on the lead lap averages a finish of 8.3. In this race last year, and also this spring, only six cars stayed on the lead lap. Simply put, if you can’t stay on the lead lap, you can’t win.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Dover:

1. Carl Edwards: Of all Chase drivers at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is the best, at 8.2. He leads all drivers in the COT era at the track with 510 points. He hasn’t finished out of the top 15 since Chicagoland at mid-July, and his worst finish at the track in his career is 18th in 2004, his sixth career Sprint Cup start. This one should be a no-brainer.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Even if he hasn’t won at the track since 2005, there’s still something to be said for sweeping the events at a track in your rookie season. That’s exactly what Johnson did at Dover in 2002. Even if his momentum may be slightly decreased after losing at Loudon in the final laps, Johnson has eight top 10s at Dover, with an average finish of 12th in the COT. A top 10 finish is highly plausible.

3. Greg Biffle: When your average finish at a track is 5.4 since 2005, and 3.7 in the COT era, you’re a safe pick. When you’re coming off of a win in the first race of the Chase, you’re a safe pick. When you’re second in points all-time at a track in the COT era, only ten points behind the leader, you’re a safe pick. And most importantly of all, when the writer feels stupid about missing on you, the race winner, completely last week, you’re a mandatory pick. Da Biff will step up again at Dover.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished third in this race last year, and won here in 2001 (remember “Wilson”?), but there hasn’t been too much to speak of since then. Junior has led two laps at Dover since 2004. Granted, his 35th place run earlier this year was a result of an early accident, and some say that Junior could outrun the leaders even with the damage on his car. But an average finish of 18.2 in the three years prior does not bode well. Expect a decent run, but don’t bank on a top finish.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has only failed to complete three laps at Dover since 2005. His average finish in that time is an exceptional 7.9. Although two of his lapped finishes came in the past two races at the track, he came in 7th and 8th, respectively, in those two events. Burton will be solid, if not spectacular, come Sunday.

6. Denny Hamlin: Denny is a bit of an unknown at Dover. In his first three races at the track, his average finish was a solid 8.0. But in his past two races, he’s fallen victim to accidents and has an average finish of 40.5. Take note of the fact that Hamlin has only led 61 laps in a Sprint Cup car at Dover, but they all came in the first of those two wrecks. Also of note, Hamlin has only completed 16 race laps at Dover in a Toyota. High risk can equal high reward, however – choose wisely.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has wrecked in three of his last four Dover starts. From his rookie season until 2004, he was a beast at Dover, with a worst finish of 11th in 12 starts, but since then it’s been all downhill. Stewart’s due for a win, but he hasn’t won at Dover since he swept the track in 2000. Seeing Stewart’s old self at Dover is a distinct possibility, but one never knows how long a streak of bad luck at any one track can last; remember how long it took Dale Earnhardt to win a Daytona 500.

8. Kyle Busch: Shrub is the most intriguing pick of them all. Having lost his points lead (and seven positions in the standings) in a 300-point swing over the past week, Busch has got to be angry. A disastrous run at New Hampshire last week could only have added to that rage. Then again, remember that Rowdy won at Dover in the spring, has an average finish of 10.3 (that would be a lot higher if not for an engine failure in 2006), and is hungry again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’ll win this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer: Clint has been okay at Dover, but he’s never been anything to write home about. He’s only led two laps at the track, his best finish is eighth (twice), and his average finish is a pedestrian 16.2. Don’t expect him to finish much higher than that, as he hasn’t finished in the top 5 since Infineon.

10. Kevin Harvick: Save a 4th place finish in 2003 that saw him lead 133 laps, Kevin has never run consistently well at Dover. In 15 career starts at the track, he’s only finished on the lead lap four times, and his listed average finish of 19.3 is slightly more forgiving than the track has been to him lately. If Happy can really elevate his driving to his 2001 levels at the track (finishes of 8th and 6th), he might have a shot. The team has been on a hot streak lately, with an average finish of 9.2 in the last nine races (which rises to 5.8 if you don’t count the debacle that was Indianapolis), so it’s very possible.

11. Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon is in 11th place in points? Really? His average finish of 8.3 at Dover in the COT era suggests that he can improve on that this weekend, but keep in mind that his last win here was in June of 2001. He’s only failed to complete one lap in the past five races, though, so expect him to at least be reasonably near the front all day. Keep in mind that Gordon won the pole today.

12. Matt Kenseth: Matt has suffered four DNFs at Dover since 2004, three from accidents and one from engine failure. However, when Matt’s luck holds up at Dover, he certainly performs: his average finish is 6.1 in the last seven races he’s finished. He also had a legitimate shot at winning this race last year, leading 192 laps until his engine grenaded with 26 to go. This could be the race to turn this team’s recent luck around: Matt’s finished 39th and 40th in the past two weeks and could use a pick-me-up.

So who would I pick to win this week at Dover? Given his momentum, his past record at the track, and having completed every lap of every race since Chicagoland, Biffle is a safe pick. Or is that my pride talking, after completely blowing it on him last week? Kyle Busch would be a lot safer of a pick if not for his meltdown at New Hampshire – give him a week or two to see if he rebounds or regresses. For a dark horse, think about Kenseth, whose luck hasn’t been the best at Dover or in recent weeks, but can contend for wins at the track when everything goes right.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

So the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set, the 12 drivers involved have made their compulsory David Letterman Show appearance, and we’re set for ten weeks of the finest racing NASCAR has to offer.

We start at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, not always the most entertaining track, but perhaps the most vital in the Chase. Of the four drivers to win at Loudon since the Chase era began in 2004, none has ever finished worse than sixth in points that year. With that in mind, expect a Chase driver to win this weekend; the question is, which one?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this weekend at Loudon:

1. Kyle Busch: Kyle is usually better at Loudon in the summer (average finish of 10.3 in four starts) than he is in the fall (average finish of 23.0 in three starts). However, in three Car of Today starts at the track, his average finish is 13.3 with one top 5 finish, and his summer race this year was sabotaged by the front bumper of Juan Pablo Montoya.

2. Carl Edwards: Surprisingly, one second place finish in summer 2006 comprises Cousin Carl’s only top 10 finish at Loudon. On the other hand, Edwards’ worst finish at the track was 20th in fall 2004, in only his fifth career Cup start. In eight career starts, he’s only failed to complete one lap (in 2004). Edwards won’t get you a win, most likely, but he’s a sure bet for a solid finish.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t won a race at New Hampshire since he swept both events in 2003. That being said, he also has never failed to finish a race at the track, only getting caught up in one accident two years ago that put him down 67 laps. His average finish in the COT is a whopping 6.7, and his average finish at the track overall is a solid 10.5. Expect Johnson to challenge for a win, especially given the hot streak he’s been on lately.

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior led 29 laps here in the summer, 68 last year in subpar Dale Earnhardt Inc. equipment, and 120 at the fall race in 2003. He’s capable of running well at Loudon, even if his average finish in COT races here is only 14.7. The only reason Junior finished in 24th here this summer was because of a pit road accident with Jamie McMurray, when Junior forgot to signal that he was entering the pits and McMurray plowed into his car. Look for another decent run.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint won this race last year after leading 222 laps. It was his first career Sprint Cup victory, and it put to rest criticism that he made the 2007 Chase without any race wins. Clint then went on to finish third overall last year. He was also fastest in Cup practice on Friday. However, his average finish in his other four career starts at NHMS is 27.5. Bowyer will either be a boom or a bust this weekend.

6. Denny Hamlin: For starters, in five career New Hampshire starts, Denny has never failed to finish the race. His average finish of 6.8 is buoyed by one win and four top 10s in those races, with his worst finish being 15th at this race last year. Count on a top finish.

7. Jeff Burton: You can’t go wrong with any driver who once led every lap of a race in the modern era, and Burton led every lap of this race in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, in 9 starts, his average finish was 4.7 with four wins. Since joining RCR, Burton’s average finish is a solid if not spectacular 11.1, and RCR cars have won at New Hampshire in the fall the past two years. Seeing Burton in Victory Lane again this weekend shouldn’t be a stretch.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke should have won at Loudon in the summer, until the racing gods decided to smile upon nemesis Kurt Busch instead. Factoring in a win instead of his eventual 13th place finish would make Tony’s average COT finish at New Hampshire a whopping 5.3. Since 2004, he’s led 620 of 2692 possible laps in Cup starts at the track, and was .292 seconds away from sweeping both 2005 races. Tony should break his winless drought this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Save for three top 5 finishes accrued in his excellent 2005 season and the summer 2006 race, Biffle hasn’t been all that impressive at New Hampshire. Da Biff has an average finish of 19.5 overall at Loudon, but it’s only 20.4 in the fall races. Worse still, Biffle’s average finish in the COT at Loudon is 21.7. Yikes.

10. Jeff Gordon: Since the COT was first run at New Hampshire last year, Gordon has scored the most points at the track of any Chase driver, with 475. He has finished in the top 10 15 out of 27 times he’s started at New Hampshire, and has three wins at the track. Count on a solid finish.

11. Kevin Harvick: Happy won this race in 2006 on the way to a fourth place finish in points. Since 2003, Harvick has never finished outside of the top 20 at Loudon in the fall, with his worst finish being 17th last year. Harvick also led 54 laps in the summer race.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth himself said last week at Richmond that Roush Fenway cars aren’t too good at Loudon, and he backed it up by ranking 39th out of 45 on Friday’s speed chart. However, he’s also the seventh best driver of all-time in the COT era at the track. In 17 career starts at Loudon, Kenseth’s average finish is 10.9, and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at the track in over six years.

So who would I pick? Stewart, of course. Not only is Smoke overdue for a win, highly competitive at New Hampshire, and moderately fast in practice (13th overall), but he’s got a monkey on his back after (in his opinion) throwing away a win last week at Richmond. Expect Tony to make amends this week.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

NASCAR Teams looking at Cha-Cha-Changes

NASCAR’s Silly Season may be wrapping up.

Scott Wimmer, who until recently has been rumored as a possible driver in the new Richard Childress Racing #33 ride, will not return to the Chevy team in 2009.  Wimmer and Jeff Burton combined to win a Nationwide Series owners championship for RCR in 2007.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Wimmer hasn’t posted enough wins in the car and was not the new sponsor’s driver of choice.

RCR has announced that Clint Bowyer will move to the #33 next year with the General Mills sponsorship and soon to be ex-Hendrick driver Casey Mears taking over the #07 Jack Daniels ride for ’09.  It seems general Mills wasn’t trilled with the former Kellogg’s driver hawking Cheerios.  Will Mears be able to do at RCR what he has not been able to do on a consistent basis at Hendrick Motorsports or at Chip Ganassi Racing?  It will again come down to the equipment that he is given.  Casey could argue that his stuff has been at the bottom of the pecking order at both shops.

Speaking of Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates; Chevron-Texaco dropped their little bomb this week that they will no longer be supporting the #42 car of Juan Pablo Montoya after this season.  It seems the Texaco brand is going the way of DeSoto, and they will be investing their advertising monies in a different direction.  Sirius Speedway/Motorsports Soapbox is also reporting that the Target sponsorship that has been gracing the #41 driven by Reed Sorensen may be gone as well.  Chip will have to do some serious sponsor work in the off season to fill the quarter panels of those rides while trying to get the #40 back up and funded.

Maybe the 2009 version of Silly Season is still going strong.  Not only are there still seats to be filled, but more importantly, there are hoods and quarter panels to be filled.  When long time sponsors leave the sport; as Texaco will, Target might and Kodak, Pfiser and Goodwrench have,  the impact can have a long term affect.  Lets hope there are enough  new willing partners to keep the NASCAR ship afloat.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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