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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Homestead - Ford 400

Well, this it it. It’s been a fun 2011 season, and this Sunday champions will finally be crowned–both in NASCAR as well as fantasy leagues worldwide. We will have the normal schedule this weekend: two practices on Friday, qualifying Saturday, and then the race on Sunday. I would like to quickly thank everyone that took the time to read my articles this season, and I hope you continue reading next year. Now without further ado, my final fantasy preview for the 2011 NASCAR season…

During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.

2. Tony Stewart - Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.

3. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.

4. Kasey Kahne - I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.

5. Matt Kenseth - It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.

6. A.J. Allmendinger - Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.

7. Jimmie Johnson - I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.

8. Kyle Busch - I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. - Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.

10. Greg Biffle - The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.

11. Jeff Burton - All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.

12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.

13. Kurt Busch - If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.

15. Trevor Bayne - Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.

Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:

Brian Vickers - I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”

David Reutimann - What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.

Marcos Ambrose - I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 - Kobalt Tools 500

As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas 2 - AAA Texas 500

I hope you enjoyed last Sunday’s caution-filled race at Martinsville Speedway because this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway will, more than likely, be what I like to call a snooze-fest. What’s good for fantasy owners, though, is that the practice schedule for this event is back to “normal.” There will be one session on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying at 4:30 eastern time. Then, on Saturday, two more practices will be held where all of the cars will be in race trim, so average practice speeds shouldn’t be skewed much. The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled to start around 3:30 pm eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Matt Kenseth - Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.

2. Carl Edwards - If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).

3. Jimmie Johnson - I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.

4. Greg Biffle - If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.

5. Denny Hamlin - This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.

6. Tony Stewart - This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.

9. Mark Martin - Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.

10. Jeff Burton - Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.

11. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.

12. Clint Bowyer - Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).

13. Kasey Kahne - In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.

14. David Ragan - As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.

15. Brad Keselowski - This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:

Brian Vickers - I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.

Jamie McMurray - Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 - Tums Fast Relief 500

With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Kyle Busch - Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.

2. Jimmie Johnson - If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.

3. Kevin Harvick - What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon - Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.

5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…

6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).

7. Brad Keselowski - Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.

8. Clint Bowyer - NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.

9. Ryan Newman - Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.

11. Jamie McMurray - This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.

12. Matt Kenseth - Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.

14. Juan Montoya - If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.

15. Jeff Burton - With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.

Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:

Greg Biffle - Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.

Kurt Busch - It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.

Kasey Kahne - I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega 2 - Good Sam Club 500

After this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, I think we will be able to confidently eliminate about half of the Chase field’s hopes for winning the championship, and maybe even more. The races at these super-speedways are nearly impossible to predict, so as I did in my previous Daytona and Talladega previews, I will be switching up the format for this week’s article. Although I view them as borderline worthless, there are two practice sessions scheduled for Friday afternoon and the starting lineup will be set on Saturday afternoon. The Good Sam Club 500 is set to start around 2:15 eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Talladega…The five-time champ Jimmie Johnson got a push by 4th-place finisher (and team-mate) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to get his first victory of this 2011 season and second at Talladega. Clint Bowyer, who led the most laps that day (38), finished runner-up, with Jeff Gordon ending up 3rd. Kevin Harvick, who started 38th that day, rounded out the top 5.

My Views On The Chasers:

Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl is actually one of the more consistent drivers when it comes to the restrictor plate race tracks. In the last eleven races at either Talladega or Daytona, Edwards has the best average finish of anyone in the series (13.5) and only one DNF. However, until his 6th-place finish at ‘Dega in April, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find Carl’s last top 10 here. His career average finish here of 20.9 is nothing stellar, but I think the #99 Ford should be in the top 10 by the end of the race on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick is always a good pick when it comes to the big tracks and his career average finish of 14.3 at Talladega backs that up. What’s even more impressive to me is that he doesn’t have one single DNF here in twenty-one career starts. Kevin won the April race in last season and is on a streak of three-straight top 5s at Talladega. He also has six top 10s in the last seven restrictor plate races.

Matt Kenseth - You won’t find Kenseth on my rosters this weekend, I’ll tell you that, even though I usually like the most recent winners when it comes to fantasy racing. He has just five top 10s in twenty-three career starts at Talladega and hasn’t finished there since this race in 2006.

Kyle Busch - Despite having the third-best average driver rating in the past five races at Talladega, Kyle Busch is pretty risky pick on the big tracks. His average finish in thirteen races here is 24.2, but he has led at least one lap in nine of the last ten. If he starts in the top ten on Sunday, though, I’d think about giving Busch a shot: last season he started 6th in the April race last season and finished 9th, won the April race in 2008 after starting 5th, and finished 11th in the October race in 2006 after starting 6th.

Tony Stewart - “Smoke” used to be an awesome pick when the series stopped at a restrictor plate track, but now I’d just put him in the “kind of good” category. He finished 17th here in April, and in the two Daytona races this season he ended up 13th and 11th. In those three races, though, Stewart has led a combined total of one lap. Since his win here in the October race in 2008, Tony hasn’t finished better than 16th. I think there are much better picks than “Smoke” this weekend.

Brad Keselowski - If “Bad Brad” wants to make it known that he’s serious about this championship run, he better have a good run on Sunday–and it’s not impossible that that will happen. As you may or may not remember, Keselowski made his first start at ‘Dega in 2009 driving the #09 car for Phoenix Racing. He started 9th in that race, and despite only leading one lap in that race, he led the most important: the final one. Since then, Brad has made four starts at ‘Dega and has ended up with two top 10s and has led at least three laps in all races. He struggled in the first two restrictor plate races of the 2011 season, but Keselowski finished 15th in the second Daytona race.

Kurt Busch - I’m assuming BK’s dancing partner on Sunday will be the elder Busch brother, so if one has a good race you can reasonably expect the other to as well. Kurt won both the Shootout as well as his Duel race in Daytona earlier this year and is considered by many as the best restrictor plate driver to never win a race. Over the last eleven races on them, Busch has the best average driver rating (96.4). He has completed 96.5% of the laps ran in his twenty-one starts at Talladega, which is very impressive.

Jimmie Johnson - I usually don’t like JJ at all in the spring race at Talladega (I actually had him on my Avoid list for the first race here, which he ended up winning) but the fall race is completely different. Johnson has four-straight top 10s in the October race here, and if he wants to win a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie will need a great run on Sunday, which is very possible.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - We all know the story of Junior at the restrictor plate race tracks. He pushed his team-mate, Jimmie Johnson, to the win here in April, and if they work together again on Sunday, I’m expecting top 5s out of both once again. Earnhardt has the best average driver rating (102.1) over the last five races here and he has just two finishes worse than 13th in the last seven races at Talladega. Junior’s average driver rating of 90.2 over the last eleven restrictor plate races is fourth-best in the series.

Ryan Newman - This is another reason I don’t like Tony Stewart this weekend: his team-mate, “The Rocketman.” Over the past five races at Talladega, Newman has an average finish (24.4) that is worse than Robby Gordon (23.8)…seriously. Ryan’s 3rd-place effort here in 2009 is his only bright spot in the last six races, as he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in the other five. I can say with near certainty that Newman will be out of championship contention once the race is over on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon - In the last five restrictor plate races, Gordon has notched four top 10s and has led laps in all five. At Talladega specifically, Jeff has finished in the top 10 in the last two races, but those are his only finishes better than 19th since he won both races here in 2007. Over his entire career here (thirty-seven races), Gordon has visited victory lane six times and has an average finish of 16.1.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is hit-or-miss at Talladega, so keep that in mind if you pick him this weekend. In eleven career starts here, has has notched four top 10s, but those are also Denny’s only top 20s here, bringing his average finish down to 18.7. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Hamlin has finished 21st, 23rd, and 13th.

The Non-Chasers I’m Keeping My Eye On:

Clint Bowyer - Clint won this race last season after starting 2nd and with his 2nd-place finish here in April, he now has three-straight top 10s at Talladega. What’s impressive to me, though, is that in the last eight races here, Bowyer has finished worse than 12th just once. He has the fifth-best average driver rating (88.6) over the last five races here.

Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne has two 2nd-place finishes to his name in fifteen career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but those are his only top 10s as well. However, you can’t overlook the fact that he has had some super fast Toyotas for the past few weeks. He’ll probably work with his team-mate, Brian Vickers, on Sunday, who since joining Red Bull Racing in 2007 has three finishes of 13th or better at Talladega, but also four finishes of 29th or worse.

Greg Biffle - The Biff’s stats at restrictor plate tracks won’t blow you away, but he’s quite consistent. In the last eleven races on them, Biffle has finished outside of the top 20 just once, although he has just two top 10s. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished worse than 19th since 2008 and has notched three top 10s in that five-race span.

David Ragan - Well in case you didn’t believe it before, the second Daytona race this season proved that Ragan is a legitimate contender at the restrictor plate tracks. At Talladega, David has an average finish of 17th in nine career starts and has notched three top 10s. He has the ninth-best average driver rating in the last five races here.

Juan Montoya - If you’re looking for a high risk, high reward driver, Montoya is your guy. In the last three Talladega races, Juan has two top 5s to his name, and he finished 2nd here in 2008. His career average finish of 16.4 here is actually tenth-best in the series. Also, over the last eleven restrictor plate races, Montoya has the second-best average finish (13.6) and six top 10s. He should be working with team-mate Jamie McMurray, who can get to the front at these tracks.

Joey Logano - Joey has just six top 10s this season and one of those came in the first race at ‘Dega, where he finished 10th after starting 36th. Surprisingly, though, Talladega is Logano’s second-best track on the circuit. In five career starts here, “Sliced Bread” has notched four top 10s and completed all but twelve laps. Who knows, maybe his 12th-place run last week in Charlotte will give the youngster some momentum heading into this weekend.

Trevor Bayne - We all know how Trevor won the Daytona 500 to kick of this 2011 season (as well as the ensuing Bayne-mania) but he finished 40th in his first start at ‘Dega and was out of the second Daytona race this year after just four laps. He should have the car to get a solid top 10 for fantasy owners on Sunday, but you better hope he doesn’t wreck.

David Gilliland - No, I’m not joking here. In the three restrictor plate races in 2011, Gilliland has started 39th, but he finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 9th-place effort at Talladega in April. In the second Daytona race, David finished 16th. What can I say, I guess the guy knows how to stay out of the wrecks.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte 2 - Bank Of America 500

Last weekend Jimmie Johnson reminded all of us why he is a five-time champion, and this week the Sprint Cup Series rolls into Charlotte Motor Speedway, a track that “The Champ” has, for lack of a better term, basically dominated at since day one. The Bank of America 500 will be the final Saturday night race of this 2011 season, and hopefully we won’t get charged a fee to watch it. Last weekend–as I said in my Preview–was a snooze-fest, and don’t be surprised if this race (although it is under the lights, so that adds some excitement) is the same. Charlotte is a 1.5-mile race track with 24-degree banking in the turns. With 500 miles set to be ran, that means the cars will make at least 334 laps around this track on Saturday.

During The Last Race At Charlotte…NASCAR’s golden child was leading at end but ran out of fuel, allowing Kevin Harvick to grab the win in the Coca Cola 600. David Ragan ended up 2nd in that race, followed by Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and A.J. Allmendinger, who started 2nd. The top five finishers of that race led a combined 17 laps out of the 402 ran.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Bank Of America 500:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Jimmie Johnson - As “Five Time” was absolutely dominating the field on Sunday, it reminded me of one thing that his crew chief, Chad Knaus, said earlier in the year: they were saving their good cars until the Chase. That’s bad news because it could be another Jimmie Johnson show in Charlotte on Saturday night. In twenty career starts, JJ has accumulated six visits to victory lane and ten top 5s. He has led more laps here (1,385) than anyone in the series here (even more than Bill Elliott, who has 62 starts at this track) and has an average finish of 10.8. Johnson only has one finish better than 28th in the last three points-paying Charlotte races, but don’t let that bother you: it’s a virtual guarantee that the #48 Chevrolet will be up front early and often on Saturday night under the lights.

2. Kyle Busch - Guess who has the best average driver rating at Charlotte over the past five races over everyone else in the series (even Jimmie Johnson)? You guessed it: “Rowdy” Busch. Although Kyle has never won at Charlotte Motor Speedway, I’m sure that will change eventually, and I’m willing to bet it will be sooner rather than later. In the 2010 races at this track, Busch led a combined 253 laps and ended up with 2nd and 3rd-place finishes. In this year’s Coca Cola 600, “Shrub” started 21st but ended up leading 55 laps before an accident ended his night and he finished 32nd. Before that race, though, Busch had a streak of seven top 10s here. NASCAR’s most hated driver needs a good run on Saturday if he wants to stay in the championship hunt, and I think Kyle Busch will be a contender by the end of the night.

3. Carl Edwards - In the last two weeks, we have seen Carl Edwards and the #99 team hurdle some major roadblocks and still end up with top 5 finishes. Just imagine what Cousin Carl is capable of without having some sort of problem during the race. Edwards now has seven straight top 10s in the Sprint Cup Series and is coming into the track that he owns the 3rd-best average finish of anyone in the series with more than one start (13.3). As you probably remember, Edwards won the All-Star race earlier this season and led 61 laps in the Coca Cola 600 but finished a disappointing 16th despite having the fourth-best driver rating in the race. Carl hasn’t had a top 10 at Charlotte in the last four races here but I expect that to change on Saturday.

4. Matt Kenseth - I didn’t really want to rank Kenseth this high going into the weekend–due to the fact of his fading at the end of the intermediate races this year–but there simply isn’t any other driver worthy of the #4 spot going into Saturday night’s race. Matt has made twenty-four starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway and has finished in the top 10 in exactly half of them (including one victory back in 2000). He finished 14th here in this year’s Coca Cola 600 but Kenseth led 103 of the 402 laps and had the best driver rating (124.4) in the race. In the last two October races at Charlotte, Kenseth has finished 2nd and 6th.

5. Kurt Busch - Last week’s 13th-place finish at Kansas is actually Kurt’s worst finish on the intermediate tri-oval race tracks this season. Yeah, the Double Deuce has been fast this year and I expect this team to restart their ways on Saturday night. Busch won the 2010 Coca Cola 600 and after his 4th-place finish in this year’s, he now has three top 10s in the last four Charlotte points-paying races. Kurt’s career average finish of 19.7 isn’t anything great, but it’s hard to go against a team that has been one of the best on this type of track this season.

6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has only finished in the top 10 in 23.8% of his Charlotte starts, but don’t let that statistic keep you from picking him this weekend: in the last three points-paying races here, “Happy” has grabbed a win and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. This team wasn’t great on the tri-oval intermediate tracks earlier in the season, but in the last three (Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas), Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 7th. I don’t think he has a shot at another win this weekend, but if fuel mileage comes into effect you never know.

7. Kasey Kahne - I personally am not on the Kasey Kahne bandwagon, but I feel like his recent performances (two straight top 5s) and his history at Charlotte (average finish of 14.1) earns him the #7 spot in my rankings this week. Believe it or not, Kahne has three victories at this race track and it is (statistically) his best on the circuit. He hasn’t had a top 10 here in the last three points-paying events, but from 2007 to 2009 Kasey pulled off five straight top 10 finishes here and three of them were top 5s. This Toyota has pretty much been a teens car on the intermediates this season but you know how much I like momentum…

8. Brad Keselowski - If BK has another solid run Saturday night, you can officially put my on the bandwagon. I’m 90% on right now and I seriously think he has a shot at the championship this year (I’ve been called crazy before). “Bad Brad” started on the pole in the Coca Cola 600 in May, but he did have the 8th-best driver rating in that race, and that race was before he caught on fire and raced his way into the Chase. Right now, Keselowski is 11 points out of the point lead, and if he can have a good run at Charlotte this weekend, Brad should be licking his chops for the next race on the schedule: Talladega, where he won at in 2009. I’m just saying…

9. Jeff Gordon - First off: how many times does Jeff Gordon blow up? I personally think his championship chances are now finished, but you know Jeff will be driving his ass off these weekend to try and get back in the hunt. In thirty-seven career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Gordon has visited victory lane five times and owns twenty top 10 finishes (sixteen of those being top 5s). This team struggled earlier in the season at these tri-oval intermediates, though, and now it looks like they may be heading into another slump on these tracks, with their 24th-place finish at Chicago and last week’s 34th-place run at Kansas. In the last two Charlotte races, Gordon has finished 20th and 23rd, so if he doesn’t blow you away in practice this week, you may be better off using a different driver. Be sure to check out what I think of each Chaser as well as some other drivers over at ifantasyrace.com once Happy Hour is over this weekend.

10. Denny Hamlin - Here’s another driver that I’m not real sure what to think of going into the weekend, but I’m sure I’ll have a better judgment of Hamlin once qualifying and practice is overwith this week. Denny has the fourth-best average driver rating here over the last five races and has finished 11th or better in three of them. He has just one top 5 in twelve career starts, though, and this team just seems off in this year’s Chase. If he qualifies bad and doesn’t look awesome in practice, avoid Denny Hamlin like the plague on Saturday.

11. Mark Martin - Mark is starting to become a solid pick at the intermediate tracks, so pick him while he’s hot. After last week’s 10th-place finish at Kansas, Martin now has three top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races and has just one finish outside of the top 20 since Bristol in late August. In his fifty-three starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Mark Martin has accumulated twenty-three top 10s and four victories. However, this is his fourth-worst track on the circuit, believe it or not. I won’t let that keep me from picking Martin, though: in the last nine points-paying races at Charlotte, Martin has just one finish worse than 17th.

12. Greg Biffle - Well, what do you know, Biffle finally put together an entire race at a tri-oval intermediate track (last week’s 8th at Kansas was his first finish better than 10th since his 4th-place finish at Texas in April). The Biff isn’t great at Charlotte (just six top 10s in seventeen career starts) but he did finish 5th in this race last season and has just one finish outside of the top 20 in the last seven points-paying races here. In this season’s Coca Cola 600, Greg led 50 laps and had the seventh-best driver rating but ended up finishing 13th.

13. David Ragan - Remember what I say: forget quickly when it comes to fantasy racing. I–along with many others–thought that Ragan had a great car in Kansas last Sunday, but he disappointed his fantasy owners with a 20th-place finish. I expect this team to rebound on Saturday night, though, and it seems like that always happens with Ragan. He finished 2nd here in the Coca Cola 600 but David also had the third-best driver rating in that race, so it’s not like he lucked into the finish. That makes it two straight top 10s for Ragan at Charlotte and don’t forget that he pretty much dominated The Sprint Showdown in May.

14. David Reutimann - Believe it or not, in the last five points-paying races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, David Reutimann has the fifth-best average driver rating (97.1), the second-best average finish (7.8), and hasn’t finished worse than 15th. As you may recall, Reutty won the rain-shortened Coca Cola 600 in 2009 but with his 9th-place effort here in May, as well as the two top 10s last season, Reutimann is proving that that win wasn’t a fluke. His career average finish here in nine races is 14.7, which is actually better than Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, and many others. As you know, though, picking the #00 Toyota is as risky as it comes: in the last three tri-oval intermediate races (Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas), Reutimann has finished 31st, 32nd, and 35th, respectively. He did finish 2nd to Kyle Busch at Kentucky in July, though.

15. Marcos Ambrose - Did you know that Ambrose has two straight top 10s now after his 9th-place finish at Kansas last week? I just noticed, too. The Tasmanian may be a solid fantasy sleeper this weekend, too. He led 18 laps and finished 6th here last May and in this race last season, Ambrose started 14th and finished 16th.

Those To Avoid Entering The Bank Of America 500:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - His Chase chances are done, and Junior’ss run here in the Coca Cola 600 came while he was actually running like a championship-caliber driver. Before he finished 7th here in May, Earnhardt hadn’t had a top 20 in five-straight points-paying race at Charlotte. At best you’re looking at a teens finish from the #88 this weekend.

Ryan Newman - It seems like an underdog shows up just about at every race in Charlotte and that means I’m going to go away from picking the front-runners. Even if that wasn’t the case, though, I’d stay away from Newman this weekend. He has won the pole nine times (seriously) in twenty-one starts here, but has an awful average finish of 20.9 and just seven top 10s to show for it. In the last eleven points-paying races at Charlotte, “The Rocketman” has just two top 10s. After last weekend’s race in Kansas, Newman now has three straight finishes of 18th or worse, and don’t be surprised if he makes it four straight after Saturday.

A.J. Allmendinger - He may have had a good run here in May, but abnormalities do happen in NASCAR, but lightning typically doesn’t strike twice. After qualifying 2nd in the aforementioned race, that made two straight top 3 starts for Allmendinger at this race track. But the points aren’t given out for qualifying. That 5th-place run in the Coca Cola 600 has been A.J.’s only top 10 in nine career starts at Charlotte, and more than half of the time here he finishes outside of the top 20.

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: GEICO 400 from Chicagoland Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Kasey Kahne	12	10.70
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	12	15.15
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Brian Vickers	13	17.22
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	26	15.74
Eric McClung	KFFL	A J Allmendinger	27	15.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kasey Kahne	12	14.48
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	27	15.41
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	38	14.52
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	26.89
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	20	20.85
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	7	16.85
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	7	10.74
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	19	15.07
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	9	14.78
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	12	14.19
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	26	12.33
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	7	14.04
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	A J Allmendinger	27	16.44
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Greg Biffle	26	14.67

In the Chase to the One and Done Cup Everybody Plays

When NASCAR goes Chasing, one of only 12 can win the Sprint Cup. Not so at On Pit Row.

Our second free NASCAR fantasy game - the One and Done Race to the Chase just ended. And man, was it close. Going into the last race at Richmond, James Jones trailed cinemamap aka Mark, by just three points for first place. James took Mark Martin, a great pick since he finished fourth. But Mark showed why he has been the front runner for all but a couple of the last 13 weeks. He picked race winner Denny Hamlin, thank you very much.

Mark will have to make plans for a trip to Rockingham Speedway in North, Carolina for his Fast Track Driving School prize. Congratulations to all of the winners. We gave away 23 prizes during the One and Done Race to the Chase. For the actual Chase to the One and Done Cup, - our next game - we’re bumping the total up to 25. Stay tuned as we say on the radio. We’ll make the prize list public this week sometime.

You really should play. If you made a pick during the last game, you are automatically entered to play for the One and Done Cup. If you haven’t played the game, all you have to do is sign up here. It takes about 30 seconds and it’s free. Come on. Play the game!

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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