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In the Chase to the One and Done Cup Everybody Plays

When NASCAR goes Chasing, one of only 12 can win the Sprint Cup. Not so at On Pit Row.

Our second free NASCAR fantasy game - the One and Done Race to the Chase just ended. And man, was it close. Going into the last race at Richmond, James Jones trailed cinemamap aka Mark, by just three points for first place. James took Mark Martin, a great pick since he finished fourth. But Mark showed why he has been the front runner for all but a couple of the last 13 weeks. He picked race winner Denny Hamlin, thank you very much.

Mark will have to make plans for a trip to Rockingham Speedway in North, Carolina for his Fast Track Driving School prize. Congratulations to all of the winners. We gave away 23 prizes during the One and Done Race to the Chase. For the actual Chase to the One and Done Cup, - our next game - we’re bumping the total up to 25. Stay tuned as we say on the radio. We’ll make the prize list public this week sometime.

You really should play. If you made a pick during the last game, you are automatically entered to play for the One and Done Cup. If you haven’t played the game, all you have to do is sign up here. It takes about 30 seconds and it’s free. Come on. Play the game!

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Looks Like an Up Hill Week for Kevin Harvick at Lowes

This post may seem like we’re piling on Kevin Harvick when he’s down. It isn’t like the Happy One had a great day Sunday at Talladega. But we’re headed to Lowes Motor Speedway this week and this is the OnPitRow.com post that is supposed to tell you which drivers are likely to catch a Saturday night fever.  Harvick jumps out.

Harvick, and fellow Chasers Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth all wrecked out of the Talladega Wild Card 500.  That mixed up the Chase for the Sprint Cup for sure, but that’s not what this is about.

They all have a short week to get ready for the next round in their own backyards, Charlotte.  Home cookin’ may help, but it hasn’t done much for Harvick so far.  Happy has the worst Loop Stat Driver Rating of all the 2008 Chase contenders for Lowes - 66.4.  And it’s not a Chevy thing.  Jimmy Johnson is tops with 116.5.  Harvick hasn’t led a lap in the last seven races at Lowes. His average finish in those seven is 23.1.

And it isn’t just the North Carolina speedway.  Harvick hasn’t been good on intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, covering 75 possible starts on intermediates, Kevin has led the fewer laps than all but one driver to start all 75 - 159.  Johnson has led 2735.  Eight of the top 11 lap leaders on the cookie-cutters are ‘08 Chasers.  Number 11 is Junior with 908.  And we used to talk about Earnhardt Jr being weak on the mile-and-a-halfers.

Jeff Burton is just one spot better than Harvick in the laps led department. But Burton has two wins and 31 top tens on intermediates.  Harvick is winless.   The only 75 race starter with fewer lead laps than Harvick is Bobby Labonte.  But even Labonte’s Driver Rating is 81.2.

It just doesn’t look like Harvick will make a big move in the Chase at Lowes.  Labonte, Michael Waltrip and Robby Gordon aren’t very good bets either, but you likely already thought that.  I know I did.  But Kevin Harvick’s record on the intermediates surprised me.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Welcome To The Talladega Jungle

Predicting Talladega is like buying a lottery ticket. Sometimes you win a buck, sometimes you win a little more – but most often you end up wasting money. Case in point the last 3 races at the track in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Back in 2005 Dale Jarrett came out of nowhere to steal the race, and Brian Vickers’ last lap “pass” that sent Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. spinning ruined a lot of days. Then we have the battle last season, in which Jeff Gordon made one of the gutsiest passes I’ve seen at a plate race to snag the win from Johnson with Tony Stewart right on his tail.

There is always a sort of feeling heading into the October Talladega race that you don’t feel in the spring. I’ve felt it for years, and the additions of the Chase have only heightened the anticipation, majesty, and… fear.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Brian Vickers
2005 – Dale Jarrett
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 24th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

As has been the trend in the Chase, Johnson’s 2006 run has been the aberration in how to win the championship. In this case as you can see, throw out that year and the champ will finish in the top 5 at Talladega. This year, that seems to show that some combination of Johnson, Carl Edwards, or Greg Biffle battling for the win. Some smart money would also be on Gordon, Dale Jr., or Kevin Harvick, as the Chevy track record is particularly strong.

Talladega is good for a few surprises in the top 10. In recent years, drivers such as Tony Raines, Jeff Green, and Brendan Gaughan all recorded surprisingly good finishes here. One driver to look for is Mike Wallace in a fourth RCR car. Wallace is widely considered one of the best plate racers, and this car could be really good, or really bad. That’s half the fun of sleepers! For those that have taken a chance on my heavy sleepers, first of all, I apologize. This week I’m going to step out on that limb with David Gilliland. He has run well at plate races, and good be racing for a job next year, given that Paul Menard is headed to the Yates team.

In case you didn’t guess by the title of the column, the Talladega theme song is “Welcome To The Jungle” by Guns N’ Roses. Reportedly the long-awaited album Chinese Democracy will be out November 25. Maybe we can get that free Dr Pepper after all.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Kansas Speedway: Round Three of NASCAR’s Chase

Greg Biffle won this race in 2007.  But Biffle wasn’t in the Chase last year.  Three of the last four Kansas Speedway Sprint Cup race winners were non-Chase contenders in fact. 

The Biff is in the Chase this time and coming off a sweep of the first two rounds of the 2008 Chase to the Cup.  He has the number one Loop Data Driver Rating for Kansas Speedway - 118.5 - and the second best combined Driver Rating - 106.5 - when averaging in the season-to-date stats.  His average position in the three Loop Data races is 6.4 and he has run more laps in the top 15 - 702 for 94.4 percent - than anyone else.  And only one driver has won more races than Biffle - 13 -  on NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in the last five years.  Greg Biffle looks pretty studdly this week.

And so does the only driver with more intermediate track wins than the Biff.  That would be Jimmy Johnson with 23.  Johnson has something else that Biffle wants.  Greg is going for three straight Sprint Cup wins.  The last driver to pull that off is Johnson, who won four in a row at the end of the 2007 Chase.  Jimmy has the second best Kansas Driver Rating - 115.6 - but the top combined DR at 110.5.  Johnson has one top five and four top tens, but is winless at Kansas.

Anybody but Johnson

Carl Edwards leads the Sprint Cup standings.  His Driver Ratings for Kansas are a ninth best 90.2 for the Speedway and a combined fourth - 98.5 - when factoring in 2008 season-to-date.  Carl is part of  the surging Roush-Fenway organization.  Along with Biffle and Matt Kenseth, Edwards heads a three pronged assault on the Cup by the Cat in the Hat.  The trio took the top three spots at Dover International Speedway in race two.

Kenseth’s performance was the biggest surprise, based upon what had been happening with that team.  The no. 17 had the second best Dover Loop stats, but it was hard to look his way before the race.  A strong second at the Monster Mile makes this week’s outlook more positive.  Matt’s DR is eighth best for Kansas and he has the second most top ten finishes on intermediates the last five years.

Is Kyle Busch Really Toast?

Kyle Busch still has the best season-to-date Driver Rating, despite finishing 34th and 43rd the last two races.  But for the third straight week, his track specific DR is sub-top ten at 16th best 80.0, with just one top ten in four races.  The Shrub has been good on intermediates, finishing top ten in nearly half of his starts.  The question is, can the Joe Gibbs Racing no.18 right the ship.  If Kyle was feeling championship pressure, that should be gone - at least for now.

Gibb’s team leader - I think he’s still the team leader - Tony Stewart has the third best Kansas and combined DR.  He has won at Kansas and eight wins on intermediate tracks.  Can Tony win another race before he leaves Joe Gibbs Racing for good? 

Jeff Gordon is the only driver to win more than once at Kansas with two to go with ten other intermediate track wins the last five years.  Gordon has the fifth best combined DR and he’s coming off a solid seventh at Dover. His average finish at Kansas - 10.6 - is better than all but Clint Bowyer’s 5.5.

I’m hearing a lot about the Richard Childress Racing drivers being tough this week.  Bowyer actually has the fourth best Kansas DR at 106.5.  But he’s only races here twice in the Cup Series.  Bowyer finished eighth at Dover.  Kevin Harvick’s DR is 11th for Kansas - 83.3 and Jeff Burton has a 22nd best 70.4.  Their combined DRs are 86.6 and 79.9.  None of the RCR guys has a Kansas Cup win and they have six intermediate track wins between the three of them.

Dale Earnhardt Jr  finished 24th and with a Kansas DR of 82.0 and four intermediate track wins, Junior doesn’t look like a pick this week.  I need to see this team finish a race strong before I can take them.

But if you want a wild, dark-horse pick, go with Hendrick Motorsports’ Casey Mears.  Mears has the tenth best Kansas DR at 88.2 and a category leading Ave Finish of 4.7.

The pick to win here is Jimmy Johnson.  Roush teams are good on the mile and a half tracks but Jimmy is the king.

Looking for other fantasy thoughts on this week’s Kansas action?  Check out Backstretch Motorsports’ Pure Stats for week 3 or go to Roto Experts for their take.  And check out Mike Maruska’s fantasy advice at One Bad Wheel.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

Kansas Has Been Kind to Non-Chasers

Kansas Speedway can sort out the have and have-nots in the Chase for the Cup. Only once has a Chaser won in Kansas, but champs run strong in the race, along with their competitors for the title. Case in point: last season, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson finished 2-3 behind winner Greg Biffle. In 2005, Biffle and Carl Edwards finished 2-3, with champion Tony Stewart right behind them in 4th.

The winners:
2007 – Greg Biffle (non-Chaser)
2006 – Tony Stewart (non-Chaser)
2005 – Mark Martin
2004 – Joe Nemechek (non-Chaser)

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2005 – Tony Stewart 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch 6th

The hottest driver on the circuit right now is Biffle. He also just happens to be heading to the track that has suited him extremely well. Finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 12th, and 1st solidify his position. Could Biffle win three races in a row? It’s very likely. No driver is as hungry as he is right now. Biffle is bound and determined to go win all 10 races. He’ll have to contend with some hometown favorites to do that, of course. Both Edwards and Bowyer have extra motivation to win at Kansas – for Bowyer, it’s his hometown track. For Edwards, it’s close to his hometown in Missouri. Martin will also look to score a win at Kansas, the site of his last Sprint Cup win in 2005. The Army team seems to be running the best it has all year right now. Finally, the pattern of this race has gone Chevy-Ford-Chevy-Ford in the Chase. Will that hold form? Sunday we’ll see.

If you’re looking for sleepers, the driver with a surprisingly strong record at this track is Casey Mears. He has finishes of 8th, 2nd, and 4th since 2005. For those feeling brave, take a chance on young Joey Logano. Remember, his best finishes this year in the Nationwide Series have been on bigger tracks, including his poles at Nashville and Kentucky, along with his win at Kentucky – a 1.5 mile tri-oval similar to Kansas.

Finally, Kansas brings us closer to the end of the season. Kansas sorts out who still has a chance and who is racing for wins and more points money. We’re going back to the old-school with Tom Petty’s “Running Down A Dream.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping The Chase Drivers: Dover International Speedway

Okay, so last week I was completely wrong about Greg Biffle. I summed up his chances at Loudon with one word: “Yikes.” I was about right with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., the rest of the top 5, but I completely blew it on Biffle. Sorry, folks. I guess four out of five ain’t bad, though, right?

Staying on the lead lap is more important at Dover than almost anywhere else: in the three Car of Today races at the track, the last car on the lead lap averages a finish of 8.3. In this race last year, and also this spring, only six cars stayed on the lead lap. Simply put, if you can’t stay on the lead lap, you can’t win.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 drivers this week at Dover:

1. Carl Edwards: Of all Chase drivers at Dover, Edwards’ average finish is the best, at 8.2. He leads all drivers in the COT era at the track with 510 points. He hasn’t finished out of the top 15 since Chicagoland at mid-July, and his worst finish at the track in his career is 18th in 2004, his sixth career Sprint Cup start. This one should be a no-brainer.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Even if he hasn’t won at the track since 2005, there’s still something to be said for sweeping the events at a track in your rookie season. That’s exactly what Johnson did at Dover in 2002. Even if his momentum may be slightly decreased after losing at Loudon in the final laps, Johnson has eight top 10s at Dover, with an average finish of 12th in the COT. A top 10 finish is highly plausible.

3. Greg Biffle: When your average finish at a track is 5.4 since 2005, and 3.7 in the COT era, you’re a safe pick. When you’re coming off of a win in the first race of the Chase, you’re a safe pick. When you’re second in points all-time at a track in the COT era, only ten points behind the leader, you’re a safe pick. And most importantly of all, when the writer feels stupid about missing on you, the race winner, completely last week, you’re a mandatory pick. Da Biff will step up again at Dover.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished third in this race last year, and won here in 2001 (remember “Wilson”?), but there hasn’t been too much to speak of since then. Junior has led two laps at Dover since 2004. Granted, his 35th place run earlier this year was a result of an early accident, and some say that Junior could outrun the leaders even with the damage on his car. But an average finish of 18.2 in the three years prior does not bode well. Expect a decent run, but don’t bank on a top finish.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has only failed to complete three laps at Dover since 2005. His average finish in that time is an exceptional 7.9. Although two of his lapped finishes came in the past two races at the track, he came in 7th and 8th, respectively, in those two events. Burton will be solid, if not spectacular, come Sunday.

6. Denny Hamlin: Denny is a bit of an unknown at Dover. In his first three races at the track, his average finish was a solid 8.0. But in his past two races, he’s fallen victim to accidents and has an average finish of 40.5. Take note of the fact that Hamlin has only led 61 laps in a Sprint Cup car at Dover, but they all came in the first of those two wrecks. Also of note, Hamlin has only completed 16 race laps at Dover in a Toyota. High risk can equal high reward, however – choose wisely.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has wrecked in three of his last four Dover starts. From his rookie season until 2004, he was a beast at Dover, with a worst finish of 11th in 12 starts, but since then it’s been all downhill. Stewart’s due for a win, but he hasn’t won at Dover since he swept the track in 2000. Seeing Stewart’s old self at Dover is a distinct possibility, but one never knows how long a streak of bad luck at any one track can last; remember how long it took Dale Earnhardt to win a Daytona 500.

8. Kyle Busch: Shrub is the most intriguing pick of them all. Having lost his points lead (and seven positions in the standings) in a 300-point swing over the past week, Busch has got to be angry. A disastrous run at New Hampshire last week could only have added to that rage. Then again, remember that Rowdy won at Dover in the spring, has an average finish of 10.3 (that would be a lot higher if not for an engine failure in 2006), and is hungry again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’ll win this weekend.

9. Clint Bowyer: Clint has been okay at Dover, but he’s never been anything to write home about. He’s only led two laps at the track, his best finish is eighth (twice), and his average finish is a pedestrian 16.2. Don’t expect him to finish much higher than that, as he hasn’t finished in the top 5 since Infineon.

10. Kevin Harvick: Save a 4th place finish in 2003 that saw him lead 133 laps, Kevin has never run consistently well at Dover. In 15 career starts at the track, he’s only finished on the lead lap four times, and his listed average finish of 19.3 is slightly more forgiving than the track has been to him lately. If Happy can really elevate his driving to his 2001 levels at the track (finishes of 8th and 6th), he might have a shot. The team has been on a hot streak lately, with an average finish of 9.2 in the last nine races (which rises to 5.8 if you don’t count the debacle that was Indianapolis), so it’s very possible.

11. Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon is in 11th place in points? Really? His average finish of 8.3 at Dover in the COT era suggests that he can improve on that this weekend, but keep in mind that his last win here was in June of 2001. He’s only failed to complete one lap in the past five races, though, so expect him to at least be reasonably near the front all day. Keep in mind that Gordon won the pole today.

12. Matt Kenseth: Matt has suffered four DNFs at Dover since 2004, three from accidents and one from engine failure. However, when Matt’s luck holds up at Dover, he certainly performs: his average finish is 6.1 in the last seven races he’s finished. He also had a legitimate shot at winning this race last year, leading 192 laps until his engine grenaded with 26 to go. This could be the race to turn this team’s recent luck around: Matt’s finished 39th and 40th in the past two weeks and could use a pick-me-up.

So who would I pick to win this week at Dover? Given his momentum, his past record at the track, and having completed every lap of every race since Chicagoland, Biffle is a safe pick. Or is that my pride talking, after completely blowing it on him last week? Kyle Busch would be a lot safer of a pick if not for his meltdown at New Hampshire – give him a week or two to see if he rebounds or regresses. For a dark horse, think about Kenseth, whose luck hasn’t been the best at Dover or in recent weeks, but can contend for wins at the track when everything goes right.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

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