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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Chicago - Geico 400

With NASCAR’s regular season coming to an end last Saturday night, it’s finally time for the top 12 drivers to buckle down and decide who will be the 2011 champion. This year’s Chase kicks off (for the first time) at Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday afternoon, and it may be an interesting race because the Sprint Cup Series has never ran at this track this late into the year. Since 2001, which was when the series first ran here, the Sprint Cup teams have made one visit per season to Chicago and it has always been in July. Will we see some familiar faces up front on Sunday afternoon? I guess we’ll find out…

During The Last Race At Chicago…Of the 267 laps ran here last July, four drivers accounted for leading all but 4 of them: Jimmie Johnson (92), pole-sitter Jamie McMurray (72), Jeff Gordon (47), and race winner David Reutimann (52). Following Reutty to the line that day was Carl Edwards, Gordon, Clint Bowyer, and Jamie Mac rounded out the top five. “Five Time” was running up front all day before spinning out and ended up finishing in 25th, one lap down.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Geico 400:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Jeff Gordon - The team with the most momentum (yes, even more than Brad Keselowski) heading into the Chase is this team and Jeff Gordon. I thought that they really struggled on the intermediate tracks earlier in the year, but this team has really turned things around on the “cookie cutters” as of late, with a win at Atlanta, a 6th-place effort at Michigan, and a 10th-place finish at Kentucky in July. Statistically, Chicagoland is Gordon’s third-best track on the circuit with an average finish of 8.6 in ten career races here. He visited victory lane here in 2006 and in his last two starts here, Jeff has a 2nd and a 3rd-place finish to his name.

2. Jimmie Johnson - Chicago has been a great track for old “Five Time” and now with the race here being one of the ten Chase spots, expect to see the #48 Chevrolet near the front once it’s all said and done on Sunday. Johnson has the second-most laps led here (with 326) and has seven top 10s in nine career starts at this track. Jimmie has two finishes outside of the top 20 at Chicagoland but has led at least 82 laps in both of those races, so it’s not like he had a bad car for them. When you take those two efforts away, Johnson has an average finish of 4th. Despite having never visited victory lane at this race track, expect “The Champ” to be contending for the win on Sunday.

3. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” Busch isn’t great at Chicago, but it is nowhere near his worst track (it’s actually 8th out of the 23 the series visits in terms of average finish). He won here from the pole back in 2008 and Kyle also has a 3rd-place effort to his credit, which came back in 2006. The #18 Toyota has been a top 5 car on most of the intermediate tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. However, Busch isn’t running as strong as normal lately, and his average finish at this track (13.5) doesn’t make him an absolute lock this weekend. Keep an eye on Kyle Busch in practice and be sure to check back in at www.ifantasyrace.com this weekend after qualifying to see where “Rowdy” ends up on my final predictions. Going into the race, though, I see Busch as a top 5 threat.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl finally says this team is back to where they need to be, and I don’t disagree with him. After their little stumble in mid-August, this #99 team finally looks championship-caliber again with two-straight top 5s, and just in time with the Chase starting. At Chicagoland, Edwards has been decent in six career starts, with two top 5s but also two finishes outside of the top 30. He has only led 17 laps in his career here, but I fully expect Carl Edwards to be a force this weekend.

5. Tony Stewart - Two drivers in the Sprint Cup Series have multiple wins at Chicagoland Speedway: “Smoke” and Kevin Harvick. Stewart has ran in all ten races held here and owns eight top 10s and an average finish of 9.5. Of those eight top 10s, seven have been top 5s, and Tony has led the most laps of anyone at this race track. With top 10s at Atlanta and Richmond, Stewart locked himself into the Chase, and I fully expect this team to continue this little streak that they are on and be a contender on Sunday. At the intermediate tracks this year, Stewart has been as good as anyone, with top 10s at Las Vegas, Kansas, Michigan (twice), and Atlanta. When you look at all of the other “cookie cutters,” “Smoke” hasn’t finished lower than 13th at any of them except for Charlotte.

6. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother has had his share of struggles at Chicagoland Speedway, but he has also found success. In ten career starts, Busch has five top 10s but also four finishes outside of the top 20, which explains his average finish of 18.1. He hasn’t had a top 10 at Chicago since 2007, but with the way this team is running lately (two straight top 5s) and how the Double Deuce has been on the intermediate tracks (4th at Atlanta, 9th at Kentucky, 9th at Kansas, 10th at Texas, and 9th at Las Vegas) this season I fully expect another strong showing out of Kurt Busch this weekend. Don’t expect a good qualifying effort out of him, though, as Busch’s average start here is 22.1 over his ten starts.

7. Kevin Harvick - The last two visits to Chicagoland haven’t kept Harvick too happy, but from 2006 to 2008 he recorded three straight top 5s and won each of his first two starts at this track, leading a combined 142 laps. I never like going against the most recent winner, and with Harvick dominating in Richmond like he did last weekend, there is even less of a chance of me not picking him on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at the intermediates this season, but Harvick did finish 7th at Atlanta earlier this month and won at at California in March. Unless he looks slow in practice and doesn’t have a very good qualifying effort, Kevin Harvick should be a good pick at Chicago this year.

8. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth’s record isn’t stellar at Chicago, but in ten career starts, Matt has a worst finish of 23rd and just two finishes outside of the top 15. This team has been on top of their game at many of the “cookie cutter” races this season, but lately they haven’t been as strong as many would expect (Michigan and Atlanta come to mind). Kenseth still posted top 10s in both of those races, but top 5s were expected for each by many experts. I’m being conservative in ranking the #17 Ford in 8th going into this weekend’s race, although Kenseth does have a good chance at a solid top 5 or maybe even his first victory at Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday.

9. Denny Hamlin - After the race at Richmond was all said and done, and Hamlin driving his ass off to stay in the title hunt, I’m not 100% sure what to expect out of the #11 Toyota this weekend. I think Hamlin will either be a good pick for another solid top 10, or this team will completely fall apart and disappoint fantasy owners. The former is more likely in my mind, though, so I’m ranking Denny 9th going into the weekend. Hamlin has made five career starts at Chicagoland and has an average finish of 16.8, although the last two races here have ended with him in 5th and 8th.

10. Brad Keselowski - Last week in Richmond proved one thing to me: this Blue Deuce team is capable of keeping up with the tracking and adjusting the car better than many people–myself included–thought they could. I think his hot streak is going to end eventually (sooner rather than later) but until that happens, Keselowski still has to be considered one of the better picks, especially if you’re playing in the Yahoo! fantasy racing. BK has made two starts at Chicagoland Speedway and has finished 32nd and 18th, but you should know by now not to go off of his history during this hot streak he’s on.

11. A.J. Allmendinger - The Dinger has momentum on his side (five straight top 12 finishes) coming into this weekend’s race, and the series is stopping at a track where he has had some good runs, too. Statistically this is Allmendinger’s third-best track on the circuit, and even though in three career starts his best finish is just 13th, A.J. has never finished worse than 14th here. Recently, Allmendinger finished 10th at Atlanta and 11th at Michigan. Unless the #43 Ford looks way off in practice, expect The Dinger to hang around the top 10 for most of the day on Sunday.

12. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” has quietly been a very consistent driver over the last two and a half months, and while I don’t think he has a chance to win the championship this season, Newman has the potential to make some noise in this year’s Chase. At the intermediate tracks this season, the #39 team has been pretty good, with top 10s at Michigan (twice), Kentucky, California, and Las Vegas. Even when Newman hasn’t ran great at this type of track this season, he still manages a solid finish (14th at Texas, 15th at Kansas, and 20th at Atlanta). Newman has five top 10s in nine career starts at Chicagoland and won here in 2003.

13. Clint Bowyer - If Bowyer messed up your fantasy roster in Richmond, make sure you forget about it this week. He was driving like an idiot for most of the race and would have had a shot at the win if he didn’t try so hard so early. That’s a good thing to see, though, because even though Bowyer didn’t get the finish, he did have a good car, and should have a decent Chevrolet in Chicago this weekend. At this track, Clint has four top 10s in five career starts and an average finish of 10.8. This team is still in a major slump, though–with just one top 10 in the last two and a half months–but the #33 has been a good pick for a teens finish at the “cookie cutter” race tracks this season and I don’t see that changing in Chicago.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - In the last eight Sprint Cup Series races, NASCAR’s golden boy has really established himself as a consistent, yet average driver. Over the span, Junior has six finishes between 14th and 16th, and the other two races (Pocono and Atlanta) ended with Earnhardt in 9th and 19th-place, respectively. Until he gets off this streak of consistent mediocrity, Junior will continue to be ranked as a mid-teens driver in my mind. At Chicagoland, Dale has one win in ten career starts and an average finish of 16th, which is right where he should finish on Sunday as well.

15. Jamie McMurray - Another fairly consistent driver over the past month and a half has been Jamie Mac, who earlier in the year many people–myself included–written off. However, like I said in my Predictions article last week, you have to have a short memory when it comes to fantasy racing. Since McMurray’s 4th-place finish at Indianapolis in July, his worst finish has been 23rd and he has three finishes between 14th and 17th (two coming in the last two race) as well as his 5th-place effort at Bristol. Last July, Jamie started on the pole at Chicagoland and led 72 laps before ultimately finishing 5th. I’m expecting another teens finish out of this #1 team on Sunday.

Note: For those looking for a solid “start saver” pick in Yahoo! this weekend, Trevor Bayne is scheduled to race the #21 Ford on Sunday.

Those To Avoid Entering The Geico 400:

Greg Biffle - The Biff is generally a really good pick when it comes to intermediate tracks, but this year has just been a different story for him. Recent “cookie cutter” races have ended with Biffle in 12th (Atlanta), 20th (Michigan), 21st (Kentucky), and 15th (Michigan). He’ll probably be good for a solid top 20 finish this weekend, but there are much better options. Biffle has one top 10 finish in eight career races at Chicagoland Speedway.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” has just two top 20s in the last month and a half of Sprint Cup racing (seven races) and while I think he has the capability of finishing there on Sunday, you don’t win fantasy championships by picking teens drivers every week. Logano has made two career starts at Chicagoland and has 18th and 19th-place efforts to his name. I wouldn’t expect much better out of this team this weekend.

Marcos Ambrose - Marcos showed some promise at the intermediate tracks earlier in the 2011 season, but lately it has been a different story. Ambrose finished 21st at Atlanta, 27th at Michigan, and 20th at Kentucky. That’s a long ways away from his 4th-place run at Las Vegas in March and his 6th-place finish at Texas in April. In two career starts at Chicago, the Tasmanian has an 11th and a 28th to his credit. Between those two, I think the latter is much more likely to happen on Sunday.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Atlanta - Advocare 500

For the first time since the Sprint Cup Series started racing here, this will be the first and last race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this season. As you probably remember from off-season changes, the second Atlanta race was dropped (in response to requests by owner Bruton Smith) so that Kentucky Speedway–also owned by Smith–would be able to host an event for the top series in NASCAR. Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval race track with 24-degree banking in the turns and just 5-degree banking on the straightaways. Charlotte Motor Speedway has the exact same banking and is a 1.5-mile quad-oval, so I will be looking back at that race often in this article as well as some of the other intermediate track results. Surprisingly, no driver has a career average finish here better than 10th.

During The Last Race At Atlanta…Back in September of last season, Tony Stewart led 176 of the 325 laps and grabbed his first victory of the 2010 season. Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, and Kyle Busch rounded out the top five that day. Polesitter Denny Hamlin led 74 laps but an engine problem ended his day early and in 43rd place. In the March race at this track, Kurt Busch put the Blue Deuce in victory lane with Matt Kenseth, Juan Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Paul Menard following him to the line. Kurt Busch and Montoya were the only two drivers that were able to post top 10s in both Atlanta races last season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Advocare 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - Although his average finish at Atlanta is 10.4, Jimmie Johnson’s is the best of anyone in the series here. The five-time champion has won three times at this 1.54-mile track and his average driver rating of 104.6 over the past four races here is fifth-best in the series. I still think this team is going to get another win before the Chase starts, and they are really starting to click lately, with four straight top 10s and three of them being in the top 4. In the last two cookie cutter races–Kentucky and Michigan–Johnson has finished 3rd and 2nd, and he finished 3rd here at Atlanta last September.

2. Matt Kenseth - This team has prepared a brand new chassis for this race on Saturday night, and if you look back at what has happened this season, that’s bad news for the rest of the field. At Texas and Dover–in April and May, respectively–Kenseth had a new chassis and visited victory lane both times. That’s not saying he’s a guaranteed lock for a victory on Saturday night, but with eleven straight finishes of 13th or better at Atlanta, you know he’s going to be in the running for the win. By the way: of those eleven straight, six have been top 5s.

3. Kyle Busch - Rowdy’s record isn’t stellar here by any means, but he’s been great on the intermediate tracks this season and that shouldn’t change this weekend. As you probably remember, Busch won at Michigan a few weeks ago and also dominated at Kentucky back in July after finishing 3rd in the first Michigan race. Kyle has started in the top 5 in each of the last three Atlanta races but has just one good finish to show for it (a 5th last September). He has just three top 10s in thirteen starts at this 1.54-mile track, but remember that he won here in 2008 after leading 173 laps and could very well find himself bowing to the crowd for the fifth time this season on Saturday night.

4. Jeff Gordon - With all of the success the next driver in my rankings is having recently (hint: his initials are BK), Gordon’s hot streak has been a little overshadowed. In the last three months, though, Jeff hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 and has just one result worse than 13th. He also has top 10 finishes in the two most recent cookie cutter races (Michigan and Kentucky), but Gordon struggled at Atlanta in 2010, with finishes of 18th and 13th. Before that, though, he had five straight top 10s here, and with his history here (four wins and twenty-three top 10s in thirty-seven races) I don’t see Jeff Gordon finishing any place near his results last season at this track.

5. Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to say much about BK this week–you know the streak he’s on, and not picking him would be like going against Jimmie Johnson during the Chase. At Atlanta, his finishes haven’t been great, bur Keselowski’s best finish at Bristol before his win last weekend was 13th. History doesn’t matter when a driver and team are running like this. Remember though: Keselowski was looking like a top ten car here last March before Carl tried to kill him.

6. Kurt Busch - Kurt has been in a slump lately (one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races) but he’s coming to a track that has been kind to him lately. The elder Busch brother has the second-best average driver rating at Atlanta over the last four races here and has led the most laps (373) over that span as well, which includes two victories, a 6th-place finish, and a 38th. He actually had a perfect driver rating (150.0) during his win in March of 2009 here, where Kurt led 234 of the 330 laps after starting 2nd. Since 2006, Kurt has finished outside of the top 15 just once at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

7. Denny Hamlin - In the last four Atlanta races, Denny Hamlin has the third-best average driver rating of all drivers despite posting just one top 10 finish. He has also led at least 23 laps in each of the last three events here. Do you know what that says? Hamlin runs well here, but doesn’t get the finish. With the Chase looming, Hamlin should be on his A-game Saturday night and with a new TRD engine under the hood, I wouldn’t be worried about any engine problems like he has experienced before on the bigger tracks this year. In eleven starts at Atlanta, only two races have ended with Hamlin having a driver rating of less that 88.8, yet he only has three top 10s.

8. Carl Edwards - Carl broke out of his little slump last weekend with a top 10 at Bristol, but was the really the run that put them back on the map? He was favored to win that race by many people yet led only two laps and finished 9th. This team hasn’t really been on top of its game since June and I don’t see them as a top 5 car going into the race. That may change once practice and qualifying is over with, though, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying Predictions at ifantasyrace.com. Edwards has made thirteen starts at Atlanta and has four finishes of 37th or worse. In the nine other races, though, Carl has three wins, two 2nd-place finishes, two 3rd-place finishes, and two 7th-place finishes.

9. Ryan Newman - Over the last seven Sprint Cup races, “The Rocketman” has quietly notched five top 10s and a worst finish of 16th. In the most recent cookie cutter events, Newman has finished 5th and 6th in the two Michigan races and came home 4th at Kentucky. He also looked good at the intermediates earlier this year–which was surprising–with top 5s at both Las Vegas and California. At Atlanta, Newman has two top 10s in his last three starts and he won every single pole here from 2003 through 2005 (six races!). He won’t win on Saturday night but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Flyin’ Ryan grab another top 10 and clinch his spot in the Chase.

10. Tony Stewart - This is one pick that could very easily change a whole bunch of positions in my rankings once practice and qualifying are over with. Smoke’s comments about his team didn’t help much at all last weekend at Bristol, as the #14 Chevrolet came home in 28th place, but Atlanta is a track where this team could get a boost and head into the Chase (or stumble once again). In twenty-four career starts here, Stewart has twenty top 20 finishes–with fourteen of those being top 10s–and has visited victory lane three times. Smoke is also the most recent race winner here and his most recent cookie cutter finishes include a 7th and 9th at the two Michigan races and a 12th-place effort in Kentucky.

11. Kasey Kahne - If this team makes no mistakes this weekend has the #4 Toyota has speed, Kasey Kahne could visit victory lane on Saturday night. However, we all know how under-performing this Red Bull team has been all season and with just two of their eight top 10s on the season coming at cookie cutter tracks, it’s hard to say they are a flat out favorite this week. In the last four Atlanta races, though, Kasey has the best average driver rating and has three top 10s, including a win in 2009, which was his second at this 1.54-mile track. He’s hit-or-miss here, though, so be cautious: in fourteen starts here, Kahne has eight top 10s and six finishes of 28th or worse.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - I personally think Dale Junior is already a lock for the Chase, but because it’s still mathematically possible that he misses it, the talking heads at ESPN and ABC will continue to blab about him all race (unfortunately for us). That being said, I don’t think Junior will push the issue on Saturday night, and if he can post a solid top 15, I think he will be alright with that and feel confident in his Chase chances. He has one victory at Atlanta–which came back in 2004–but hasn’t finished better than 11th here in five races. This Chevrolet has been a mid-teen car for the last month and a half, and I don’t see that changing much. Believe it or not, Earnhardt has just one top 10 in the last ten Sprint Cup races, and that was a 9th at Pocono.

13. Greg Biffle - It’s a cookie cutter track, that should be a lock for Biffle and the Roush crew to all get top 10s, right!? Not so fast. Greg has nine top 10s here in sixteen starts and an average finish of 16.3. He has never won here and of those nine top 10s, only three have been top 5s. He has two top 10s over the last two years here but also two finishes outside of the top 30. Also, the last three intermediate races have ended with Biffle in 20th, 21st, and 15th (Michigan, Kentucky, and Michigan again). If this team struggles to find speed in practice, expect to find the #16 Ford on my avoid list on Saturday.

14. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, JPM has three straight top 10s at this track. Many believe that this will be the site of his first oval win, and I could see that happening, but not this weekend. Could a top 15 be provided by the #42 Chevrolet on Saturday night, though? It’s certainly possible. If he qualifies in the top 10 or so, I’d consider Juan this weekend. If not, just pass; his momentum coming into this race is less than stellar, anyway: Montoya has five finishes of 19th or worse in the last month and a half.

15. Marcos Ambrose - Marcos has scored the ninth-most points of anyone in the series over the last three Sprint Cup races and has had some decent runs at Atlanta recently. Last March, he finished 11th after starting 12th, and Marcos came back in September and posted his first top 10 at this 1.54-mile track despite starting the race in 32nd. He has been a 20s type of driver in recent cookie cutter races, though, so make sure you keep an eye on Ambrose in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Advocare 500:

Kevin Harvick - To say this team is struggling is an understatement. The #29 Chevrolet has looked good over the past month or two in practice, but has really disappointed fantasy owners on race day, with just one top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races. He won the race at Charlotte, but you have to remember that fuel mileage was a factor, and he spent much of that race outside of the top 15. Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races at Atlanta but his career average finish here of 20.5 is nothing to ride home about. Going into the race, Harvick is a mid-teens driver at best, and fantasy championships aren’t won picking those guys.

David Reutimann - Reutty is at his best on these intermediate race tracks but Atlanta is a completely different story for him. He has a 4th-place finish to his name that came back in 2009, but in his other six starts here, Reutimann has a best finish of 16th and has cracked the top 20 just twice. His only top 10s of this 2011 season have came at Charlotte and Kentucky, but other than those two races this #00 team has been sub-par at best on the ovals.

David Ragan - Statistically, this is David’s fifth-worst track on the circuit, with a career average finish of 25.6. He posted an 8th-place finish in October of 2008, but other than that, his Ragan’s best finish in Atlanta has been 19th, which he has accomplished twice. In eight career starts here, half of them have ended with him outside of the top 30. Ragan has an average finish of almost 22nd since the race at Kentucky, which came after his win in Daytona.

Paul Menard - It’s going to be slim picking this week for the Yahoo! fantasy racers in the C-division. Menard has a 5th-place finish to his name at Atlanta, but other than that, he has just one additional top 10 at the 1.54-mile race track in eight other starts. In that race that Menard came home 5th, he had a driver rating of 88.7, which was good enough for just 12th-best in that race. He finished 29th at Charlotte and the last two “cookie cutter” races (Michigan and Kentucky) have ended with Paul in 26th and 24th position, respectively.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” just can’t seem to get a hold of this place. In four career starts, Joey’s best finish has been 22nd and he has yet to finish on the lead lap. His qualifying efforts aren’t much better here, either, as Logano’s best start at Atlanta was 29th in the spring race last season. You may have guessed it, but statistically this is his second-worst track on the schedule. He posted a 3rd-place finish at Charlotte this season, but Logano’s driver rating of his 71.5 in that race shows that he wasn’t even a top 20 car, which has been the type of intermediate driver he has been all season.

When Jimmie Goes Down To Georgia

I’m shameless, really. When it comes to NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson has become Mr. October in nearly every sense. While he’ll never be Reggie Jackson, he has been incredible in the October Chase races, which have used Atlanta as the bookend. Every year this race focuses mainly on the Chase drivers and some of the great racing is missed. Maybe ABC will take a cue from that and show the race.

Chase drivers tend to mix in with other drivers at Atlanta, I’ve noticed. Tony Stewart won in 2006, when he also won at Kansas and just aimed for wins during the Chase. One of my favorite victory lane moments came here in that race, when Stewart climbed the fence to celebrate, mingled with the fans in the stands, then told the interviewer that the hat he was wearing came from a fan that gave it to him – one of those old hats that was torn from use, not for design. I felt compelled to share that right here. Equipment will be something to watch here as it really strains the engine. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards will all hope for something like that to happen.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Tony Stewart
2005 – Carl Edwards
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 9th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 42nd

I’ve started the last 2 race winners and they’ve delivered 2 wins. Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this! It’s so tempting to say Jimmie Johnson 12 times and be done with it, but…

JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON

Or go with Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. At this point, they’re still the ones in position to make a move if the #48 ends up having trouble.

I desperately want David Ragan to win a race this season. His spring race here wasn’t great, but he has had a lot of solid runs on the intermediate tracks. Plus, it makes for a great story in addition the Chase coverage. As a backup, I’ll take Brian Vickers.

“The Devil Went Down To Georgia” by the incomparable Charlie Daniels Band is the song for this week. I guess the golden fiddle is the Sprint Cup and the devil is either Mike Helton or Brian France as they deal the cards.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chase to the Sprint Cup Round One: Ding Ding

Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

If You Wanna Win the Chase, Get a Good Finish in New Hampshire

The Chase For the Cup is entering year five. Despite the initial outrage, outcry, and gnashing of teeth, most have come around to the idea – and see the benefits of remaining viable after the NFL season starts (The cardiac cats are back!). Since 2004 the Chase has started at the same place, the 1 mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire. The track is now called the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but the track remains the same and thus far, dominated by Chase drivers. Going back to the ’04 season, a Chaser has won every time. In fact, the last two seasons the dominance has been even more pronounced with the winner also doing it from the pole. The numbers say this:

2007 – Clint Bowyer wins pole, wins race, 3rd in Chase
2006 – Kevin Harvick wins pole, wins race, 4th in Chase
2005 – Ryan Newman wins race, 6th in Chase
2004 – Kurt Busch wins race, 1st in Chase

Winning this race has also proven to be a springboard to a good finish in the Chase as well – although the win isn’t a certainly, as only Busch won the championship after winning the first race.

That brings me to the champs: what did they do at New Hampshire? With the exception of Jimmie Johnson’s first title, the Chase champions have run up front when it matters:

2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 6th place
2006 – Jimmie Johnson, 39th place
2005 – Tony Stewart, 2nd place
2004 – Kurt Busch, 1st place

Two drivers stand out when it comes to this race with the added pressure of the Chase: Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Kenseth has not only finished in the top 10 in every Chase race at New Hampshire, but his worst finish in those four races is 10th. Stewart, despite his trouble this season finishing the deal, is stout at this track. A wreck took him out in 2004, but he has more than made up for that with finishes of 2nd in ’05 and ’06 and dropping to 3rd in ’07. Other options to look for would be Kevin Harvick, who has a win and 2 10th place finishes and Jeff Burton, who has a successful record at this track and would make it 3 RCR drivers in 3 years to win the Sylvania 300.

The song for this race is Metallica’s new single, “The Day That Never Comes” from the new album out in stores September 12. A Chase driver will win here. However, that’s just a one-in-twelve proposition.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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