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The War Drums are Beating…

After the show last Sunday at Martinsville, the war drums have begun beating. Well, louder anyway. Can anyone stop Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the rest of the #48 team from streaking for a 3rd Championship in a row? Not to discount the effort, but it’s kind of like listening to the same song being played on the radio 100 times a day. Sure it was a treat in the beginning, but it gets old, and fast.

Apparently the television audience thought the same again this week, as the ratings were again lower than last year. Even though Jimmie Johnson pulled it out, with a mid to late stinking of the show, it was still a wail of a show. Bump bump… Coming through… and that was all day, including Saturday. But we’re not here to discuss that wacky Camping World Truck Series race. Not at all. What we’re here to discuss are the other 31 cars that were on the track at Martinsville, and will be out in full force at HotLanta this weekend.

Both Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurray had their loans at the Luck Bank called due. Honestly, I have no idea what happened to Kurt. He was there at the start, then he wasn’t. Finally caught that he was in the garage, thanks to the ol’ 454.000Mhz, but I missed out on the what.

Then Jamie got bit by the busted rear axle bug while running very strong inside the Top-10, pushing the Top-5. But hey, I have good news, and it has absolutely nothing to do with car insurance. Looks like a reunion with your buddy Donnie Wingo is in the cards. Now go drive the wheel off that thing.

Then there was Casey Mears. Casey put the hammer down, slammed that chrome horn, and brought it home with a very solid 6th place finish. Not bad at all there, “New Pop”, even though 3 of the Top-5 went to your teammates it was still one impressive run.

So now we’re rolling a little further south, down for some hot, fast laps at Atlanta. Or as we sometimes lovingly refer to it in the depths of Thunder Lounge, the fall test session for Texas.

So who are we going to get into the Top-10 here, that isn’t trying to dethrone Johnsonpalooza?

Roush cars typically run well here, and Jamie McMurray is out for justice. Speaking of being out for justice, look for Brian Vickers to make a play and possibly be in the Top-10 at the end of the day. After getting a massive switch to the butt from NASCAR yesterday, that whole organization is out to prove they’re legit.

Finally, my third selection for the upcoming weekend. I’m going to throw a bone to none other than the 2000 Winston Cup Champion, Bobby Labonte. He knows what he needs at this track, and his resume here is quite impressive and includes 6 wins. For this type of track, he’s rolling with 17 wins, 78 Top-5’s, and 119 Top-10’s. Even the Petty slump can’t keep his bite out of Georgia.

Dark horse? Throw the love to Beak. David Reutimann was pretty good at Martinsville. Until late trouble bit him, he’d been in the Top-10 all day.

Speaking of things MWR and Martinsville. I caught Mikey coming out the back of the Toyota Fan Experience by chance. A little boy all decked out in Mikey gear (hat, jacket and all) that couldn’t have been more then 7 saw him too. He took off on a dead beat run towards the golf cart as they began to pull away. As pressed for time as these drivers are these days, Mikey made them stop the cart, and he took the time to sign the boys jacket and give him a quick squeeze. The way that kids face lit up was priceless. While it’s not just Michael, this is a true representation of our sport at heart. Good people, who just happen to be blessed with making a living doing something most of us can only dream of.

So now that the heartburn is clearing up from all those famous Martinsville hotdogs, just in time to hit the barbecue in Texas next week, we find ourselves in anxious wait to see whether or not Goodyear brings the right tire to Atlanta this time, and whether or not we’ll have a show. Just in case the tire is off a bit, bring something better to the Lone Star state, okay guys?

Potential Spoilers Abound at Martinville Speedway

First and foremost, a bit of a public apology to Steve and Charlie. I got a bit sidetracked last Thursday, something about a couple 36 hour days last week, and by the time I even thought about it they were about 100 laps into Charlotte on Saturday night. So we’re back and rolling along now, and headed into one of the neatest tracks on the schedule. I’ll watch from the middle of Turns 1 and 2, and grab a dog for Charlie.

What do Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, and Casey Mears have in common?

Aside from the obvious, of not contending for the Championship this season, they all have some pretty positive potential for spoiling the Chasers party this weekend at Martinsville.

Of these three, two of them were Top-10 here last spring and one of those is riding a bit of momentum. The other is in audition mode.

That leaves us with Kurt Busch. He knows how to get it done when the number of laps is greater than the number of miles for an event. While Martinsville wasn’t especially kind to him last spring, he’s still a threat to have a good day.

What exactly is the significance of these guys, and the other 28 drivers not in the limelight of the 2008 Chase? Points. Plain and simple, that’s what it’s all about.

We all know how the system works. It graduates from 5 points per position, through the first 6 spots, to 4 per position back through 11th. From there, it’s a 3 point slide all the way to the basement.

It’s those 4 and 5 point spots that can make a big difference, especially to those trying to yet again catch Jimmie Johnson and the #48 bunch.

Every non-Chaser that grabs one of those spots, makes for less points in a Chasers bag. As we saw in 2005, for example, a couple spots can make the difference between a trophy, and nothing but a speech in December.

Keeping that in mind, Kurt Busch(3rd), Jamie McMurray(5th), Mark Martin(9th) and David Ragan(10th) snatched up some love last weekend at Charlotte. All grasping valuable spots and points from the likes of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart.

Martinsville is a .526 mile bullring. You’re passing with the ol’ Chrome Horn a lot here. It’s going to be a wail of a show, and there are quite a few guys that have that bulls eye on their back bumper.

So let the hot dogs flow, and enjoy the show.

Kansas Speedway: Round Three of NASCAR’s Chase

Greg Biffle won this race in 2007.  But Biffle wasn’t in the Chase last year.  Three of the last four Kansas Speedway Sprint Cup race winners were non-Chase contenders in fact. 

The Biff is in the Chase this time and coming off a sweep of the first two rounds of the 2008 Chase to the Cup.  He has the number one Loop Data Driver Rating for Kansas Speedway - 118.5 - and the second best combined Driver Rating - 106.5 - when averaging in the season-to-date stats.  His average position in the three Loop Data races is 6.4 and he has run more laps in the top 15 - 702 for 94.4 percent - than anyone else.  And only one driver has won more races than Biffle - 13 -  on NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in the last five years.  Greg Biffle looks pretty studdly this week.

And so does the only driver with more intermediate track wins than the Biff.  That would be Jimmy Johnson with 23.  Johnson has something else that Biffle wants.  Greg is going for three straight Sprint Cup wins.  The last driver to pull that off is Johnson, who won four in a row at the end of the 2007 Chase.  Jimmy has the second best Kansas Driver Rating - 115.6 - but the top combined DR at 110.5.  Johnson has one top five and four top tens, but is winless at Kansas.

Anybody but Johnson

Carl Edwards leads the Sprint Cup standings.  His Driver Ratings for Kansas are a ninth best 90.2 for the Speedway and a combined fourth - 98.5 - when factoring in 2008 season-to-date.  Carl is part of  the surging Roush-Fenway organization.  Along with Biffle and Matt Kenseth, Edwards heads a three pronged assault on the Cup by the Cat in the Hat.  The trio took the top three spots at Dover International Speedway in race two.

Kenseth’s performance was the biggest surprise, based upon what had been happening with that team.  The no. 17 had the second best Dover Loop stats, but it was hard to look his way before the race.  A strong second at the Monster Mile makes this week’s outlook more positive.  Matt’s DR is eighth best for Kansas and he has the second most top ten finishes on intermediates the last five years.

Is Kyle Busch Really Toast?

Kyle Busch still has the best season-to-date Driver Rating, despite finishing 34th and 43rd the last two races.  But for the third straight week, his track specific DR is sub-top ten at 16th best 80.0, with just one top ten in four races.  The Shrub has been good on intermediates, finishing top ten in nearly half of his starts.  The question is, can the Joe Gibbs Racing no.18 right the ship.  If Kyle was feeling championship pressure, that should be gone - at least for now.

Gibb’s team leader - I think he’s still the team leader - Tony Stewart has the third best Kansas and combined DR.  He has won at Kansas and eight wins on intermediate tracks.  Can Tony win another race before he leaves Joe Gibbs Racing for good? 

Jeff Gordon is the only driver to win more than once at Kansas with two to go with ten other intermediate track wins the last five years.  Gordon has the fifth best combined DR and he’s coming off a solid seventh at Dover. His average finish at Kansas - 10.6 - is better than all but Clint Bowyer’s 5.5.

I’m hearing a lot about the Richard Childress Racing drivers being tough this week.  Bowyer actually has the fourth best Kansas DR at 106.5.  But he’s only races here twice in the Cup Series.  Bowyer finished eighth at Dover.  Kevin Harvick’s DR is 11th for Kansas - 83.3 and Jeff Burton has a 22nd best 70.4.  Their combined DRs are 86.6 and 79.9.  None of the RCR guys has a Kansas Cup win and they have six intermediate track wins between the three of them.

Dale Earnhardt Jr  finished 24th and with a Kansas DR of 82.0 and four intermediate track wins, Junior doesn’t look like a pick this week.  I need to see this team finish a race strong before I can take them.

But if you want a wild, dark-horse pick, go with Hendrick Motorsports’ Casey Mears.  Mears has the tenth best Kansas DR at 88.2 and a category leading Ave Finish of 4.7.

The pick to win here is Jimmy Johnson.  Roush teams are good on the mile and a half tracks but Jimmy is the king.

Looking for other fantasy thoughts on this week’s Kansas action?  Check out Backstretch Motorsports’ Pure Stats for week 3 or go to Roto Experts for their take.  And check out Mike Maruska’s fantasy advice at One Bad Wheel.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

Kansas Has Been Kind to Non-Chasers

Kansas Speedway can sort out the have and have-nots in the Chase for the Cup. Only once has a Chaser won in Kansas, but champs run strong in the race, along with their competitors for the title. Case in point: last season, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson finished 2-3 behind winner Greg Biffle. In 2005, Biffle and Carl Edwards finished 2-3, with champion Tony Stewart right behind them in 4th.

The winners:
2007 – Greg Biffle (non-Chaser)
2006 – Tony Stewart (non-Chaser)
2005 – Mark Martin
2004 – Joe Nemechek (non-Chaser)

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 3rd
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2005 – Tony Stewart 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch 6th

The hottest driver on the circuit right now is Biffle. He also just happens to be heading to the track that has suited him extremely well. Finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 12th, and 1st solidify his position. Could Biffle win three races in a row? It’s very likely. No driver is as hungry as he is right now. Biffle is bound and determined to go win all 10 races. He’ll have to contend with some hometown favorites to do that, of course. Both Edwards and Bowyer have extra motivation to win at Kansas – for Bowyer, it’s his hometown track. For Edwards, it’s close to his hometown in Missouri. Martin will also look to score a win at Kansas, the site of his last Sprint Cup win in 2005. The Army team seems to be running the best it has all year right now. Finally, the pattern of this race has gone Chevy-Ford-Chevy-Ford in the Chase. Will that hold form? Sunday we’ll see.

If you’re looking for sleepers, the driver with a surprisingly strong record at this track is Casey Mears. He has finishes of 8th, 2nd, and 4th since 2005. For those feeling brave, take a chance on young Joey Logano. Remember, his best finishes this year in the Nationwide Series have been on bigger tracks, including his poles at Nashville and Kentucky, along with his win at Kentucky – a 1.5 mile tri-oval similar to Kansas.

Finally, Kansas brings us closer to the end of the season. Kansas sorts out who still has a chance and who is racing for wins and more points money. We’re going back to the old-school with Tom Petty’s “Running Down A Dream.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

NASCAR Teams looking at Cha-Cha-Changes

NASCAR’s Silly Season may be wrapping up.

Scott Wimmer, who until recently has been rumored as a possible driver in the new Richard Childress Racing #33 ride, will not return to the Chevy team in 2009.  Wimmer and Jeff Burton combined to win a Nationwide Series owners championship for RCR in 2007.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Wimmer hasn’t posted enough wins in the car and was not the new sponsor’s driver of choice.

RCR has announced that Clint Bowyer will move to the #33 next year with the General Mills sponsorship and soon to be ex-Hendrick driver Casey Mears taking over the #07 Jack Daniels ride for ‘09.  It seems general Mills wasn’t trilled with the former Kellogg’s driver hawking Cheerios.  Will Mears be able to do at RCR what he has not been able to do on a consistent basis at Hendrick Motorsports or at Chip Ganassi Racing?  It will again come down to the equipment that he is given.  Casey could argue that his stuff has been at the bottom of the pecking order at both shops.

Speaking of Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates; Chevron-Texaco dropped their little bomb this week that they will no longer be supporting the #42 car of Juan Pablo Montoya after this season.  It seems the Texaco brand is going the way of DeSoto, and they will be investing their advertising monies in a different direction.  Sirius Speedway/Motorsports Soapbox is also reporting that the Target sponsorship that has been gracing the #41 driven by Reed Sorensen may be gone as well.  Chip will have to do some serious sponsor work in the off season to fill the quarter panels of those rides while trying to get the #40 back up and funded.

Maybe the 2009 version of Silly Season is still going strong.  Not only are there still seats to be filled, but more importantly, there are hoods and quarter panels to be filled.  When long time sponsors leave the sport; as Texaco will, Target might and Kodak, Pfiser and Goodwrench have,  the impact can have a long term affect.  Lets hope there are enough  new willing partners to keep the NASCAR ship afloat.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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