• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Fantasy Racing
• Contact Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Charlotte - Coca Cola 600

The schedule this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is finally back to normal–in my mind at least. There will be a practice session held on Thursday afternoon and qualifying will be held later that night. Friday will be an off-day for the drivers, but Saturday they will get two practice sessions to perfect their cars for the big race on Sunday night. The Coca Cola 600 is the longest race (in terms of mileage) for the 2011 season, and Charlotte is definitely known for producing some very exciting racing.

During The Last Points-Paying Race At Charlotte…Kyle Busch led 217 laps but it was Jamie McMurray crossing the finish line first. Busch went on to follow him, and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Greg Biffle rounded out the top five. In last year’s spring race (the 2010 Coca Cola 600), the elder Busch brother (Kurt) led 252 laps after starting second and picked up his second–and ultimately final–win of the season. McMurray finished 2nd in that race, while Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann closed out the top five. McMurray, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to post top ten finishes in both races at Charlotte Motor Speedway during the two points-paying races in 2010. In last weekend’s All-Star Race, Carl Edwards won the $1 million dollar prize followed by Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Tony Stewart, and Greg Biffle.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Now that the schedule is back to normal, I would put a lot of emphasis on average practice speeds and ten-lap averages during the final two sessions to determine your rosters. Here’s how each driver did in practice last fall at Charlotte and how they finished. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards were both two of the fastest in average speed for the recent All-Star race, and one went on to win the race (Edwards) while Biffle finished 5th. Tony Stewart had the best ten-lap average during the All-Star practice and wound up finishing a solid 4th. Be sure to check out my practice breakdown over on www.ifantasyrace.com this week, as it will be more telling as to who has a good car than the recent ones have.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Coca Cola 600:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been pretty much untouchable all season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. As you know, Edwards won the All-Star Race last weekend, and while he’s not stellar at Charlotte by any means, he does have an average finish of 11.3 in points-paying races here. He finished 3rd at Texas and won at Las Vegas, so expect Edwards to fight for the win on Sunday night, especially after not getting the finish he deserved at Dover.

2. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has never won at Charlotte–and that includes All-Star Races. He is, however, on a seven-race streak of top 10s in points paying races at this track, and the only reason his average career finish here is so low (15.2) is because he wasn’t very good at this track early in his Sprint Cup career. The race is 600 miles on Sunday night (and that doesn’t include practice), so Kyle better hope that the Gibbs engine problem is solved or he will severely disappoint fantasy owners on Sunday night. Busch finished 2nd to Edwards in the All-Star Race last weekend.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has four straight top 10s at Charlotte and I fully expect that streak to continue this weekend. He finished 6th in the All-Star Race (out of 21) and has a little momentum after “stealing” a win in Dover. His driver rating at Charlotte over the past two years is fourth-best in the series, so Kenseth isn’t getting good finishes here just by dumb luck. He won here in 2000 and has finished outside of the top twenty just 6 times in his 23 career starts at this track.

4. Jimmie Johnson -In the eight points-paying races at Charlotte from 2003 to 2006, “Five Time” finished in the top three in every single race. His career average finish here is right around 9th and he owns six wins at this track. You probably wonder why–with those numbers–Jimmie isn’t ranked number one this week. Well, he didn’t run well at all in the All-Star Race (11th-place finish), and while I know that that race doesn’t particularly translate to how someone will run during the actual race, it’s still the same track. There has never been a points-paying race at Charlotte–that Johnson participated in–that he didn’t lead a lap, so expect JJ to challenge for the lead at least once on Sunday night.

5. Greg Biffle - Load up on the Roush Fords this weekend! They “Big Three” in that stable all looked great in the All-Star Race, and “The Biff” ended up 4th after starting 3rd. His career average finish at Charlotte is 15.5 and he finished 4th at Texas in April. Greg has never won here, but he does have six top 10s in his 16 career starts at this track. He’s been pretty good for the entire season this year, and if you take away some of the problems they had (like the fuel issue at Vegas), could easily be in the top eight in points.

6. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is either going to challenge for a top five on Sunday night, or he’s going to finish in the 30s. I don’t particularly like Red Bull Racing at Charlotte, but his teammate has found some success in that equipment. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is right around 13th and he won both races here in 2006. As long as his equipment holds up and nothing crazy happens to the #4 Toyota on Sunday night, a good finish should be expected.

7. Tony Stewart - It’s almost summer, and that’s the time when “Smoke” really starts running well. He finished a respectable 4th in the All-Star Race last weekend, and Tony hasn’t posted a top ten finish in the last six points-paying races at Charlotte, I could easily see that changing this weekend. He has one win here–that came in 2003–and Stewart’s career average finish at this track is 12.2. Watch Stewart’s average speed during practice, as well as his ten-lap average. If he’s near the top in both of those, stick him on your roster.

8. Jeff Gordon - Gordon hasn’t had a top ten since Talladega, so this ranking may be a bit high. If he practices just decent or even below-average, avoid him this week. I don’t like how Gordon is running this season, and pretty much the only time I will take him is if he surprises me in practice. At Charlotte, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six races and owns a career average finish right around 15th–including five wins. In his twenty career top 10s at this track, sixteen have been top 5s, so expect a really strong run or a disappointing finish out of Gordon this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin - Like I said before, the Gibbs stable better hope that their engines can last for the longest race of the season. Hamlin’s career average finish at Charlotte is 14.6 and he finished 4th here in the fall after ending up 18th in 2010’s Coca Cola 600. The former has been his best finish ever here (All-Star Race included), so don’t expect Hamlin to challenge for the win, but a top ten is possible. He ended up 7th in the All-Star Race last weekend out of 21.

10. Kevin Harvick - I really didn’t know how to rank Harvick this week, so this is probably going to be one of the drivers that will either go way up or way down when I make my post-qualifying predictions. He finished 11th and 8th in the two Charlotte races during the 2010 season, but that was last year when he was having a remarkable season overall. His career average finish at this track is 17.2, but you never know where “The Closer” will end up when it’s all said and done. He finished 9th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

11. Mark Martin - I’m still not liking how Martin is running this season, which is why I have him ranked 11th. He has been good here recently, with a worst finish of 17th over the past four races, but I just don’t see him doing anything spectacular on Sunday night. Martin’s average finish over the course of career at Charlotte Motor Speedway has been right around 15th, and I think he will finish between 11th and 15th on Sunday night.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finished 2nd at Texas in April and has two top 10s in his past three starts at Charlotte. His best finish here came in 2007 when he finished 2nd and Clint finished 2nd in the All-Star Race last weekend after starting 2nd. A finish between 12th and 15th is likely for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cracked the top ten. He has six top 10s in the last seven races of the year, so he definitely has momentum on his side.

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Logano’s best track, but I don’t think that he will finish as good as his career average finish (6.9). He has three top 10s in his four career starts at Charlotte with a worst finish of 13th, which came last year in the Coca Cola 600. With the way his season has been going, I probably won’t pick him this week, but you can’t go against Joey’s history at this track. He finished 5th in the Showdown last weekend.

14. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s season has to turn around eventually..right? He finished 2nd and 1st in the two Charlotte races last season, and while I don’t think that he will repeat anywhere near that on Sunday night, this is his third-best track on the circuit (with an average finish of 15th) and a top fifteen is definitely possible. Be sure to watch the #1 Chevy in practice. McMurray finished 17th in the All-Star Race out of 21.

15. David Reutimann - Statistically, this is Reutty’s best track, so he should definitely be in the back of your mind all week. He won 2009’s Coca Cola 600 (although it was rain-shortened) and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since then, including 5th and 9th-place efforts last season. He finished 3rd in the All-Star Race out of 21.

Underdogs Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Regan Smith - Statistically, Charlotte is Smith’s second-best track, and he hasn’t been too terrible for being a C-list driver in Yahoo! He finished 13th here last fall after a 19th-place effort in last year’s Coca Cola 600, and in Regan’s four career starts here, his worst finish has been 23rd.

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose usually races very well in the Showdown races, but that success doesn’t translate to actual points-paying races. He finished 4th at Las Vegas and 6th at Texas, though, so make sure you watch the #9 Ford in practice.

David Ragan - I really like how Ragan is racing this season and his car looked great when he won the Showdown last weekend. The #6 Ford wound up 8th in the All-Star Race, ahead of Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson. In the last six points-paying races at this track, David has three top 10s and he finished 7th at Texas in April.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two finishes of 5th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but he’s pretty inconsistent–and Red Bull Racing is as well. He has three top tens in the last four races, and if he has a good car on Sunday night, Brian could make that four of five.

Those To Avoid Entering The Coca Cola 600:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior just isn’t very good at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He looked average in both the Showdown and the All-Star Race, and Little E hasn’t posted a top ten in a points-paying race here since early 2008. Over the past two years, drivers such as Casey Mears, Scott Speed, and Robby Gordon have better average finishes than Earnhardt at this track. Robby Gordon! Pass on the 88 this weekend. He finished 14th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Jeff Burton - In the last four points-paying races at Charlotte, Jeff Burton has posted three finishes in the 20s. Those finishes aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships, so stay away from him this week. I would say a mid-teens finish for Burton this week would be the best that he could do.

Kurt Busch - I understand that Kurt Busch was very solid here last spring, but it seems like week in and week out lately the “double deuce” isn’t running up to potential. He’s either really good here or really bad, but and the only way I would recommend him this week would be if he qualified up front and looked great in practice. Kurt finished 13th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski - BK has had a couple of good races recently at Darlington and Dover, but I’m going to wait a while until I really believe that the chemistry between him and crew chief Paul Wolfe will translate to a bunch of success in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski finished 20th and 27th at the two Charlotte races in 2010. He finished 18th out of 21 in the All-Star Race.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover - FedEx 400

This week the Sprint Cup Series visits Dover International Speedway for the FedEx 400. This will be the first of two races this season at this 1.0-mile racetrack, with the other happening in October. Seven current drivers have at least two wins at Dover, so for the second week in a row we might see a first time winner (or so we hope). 400 laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, with the green flag set to drop around 1:45 p.m. eastern time. Two practices will be held on Friday morning/afternoon and qualifying is set to start around noon on Saturday–which will be the final time the cars are on the track before raceday.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson started from the pole and led 191 laps before winning his sixth (and ultimately final) win of the 2010 season. Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson and Kyle Busch led over 95% of the laps, and the latter went on to take the checkered flag by the end of the race. JJ wound up 15th that day because of a late pit road speeding penalty, while Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and David Reutimann all scored top fives that day, along with Busch. The only drivers to finish in the top ten in both Dover races last season were: Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The FedEx 400:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl won here in 2007, and believe it or not, this is statistically his third-best track. He has made thirteen starts at “The Monster Mile” and has the best average finish of anyone in the series with 7.7. Edwards has posted at least a top-ten finish in nine of the last eleven races here and his worst effort in his career here has been 18th–which was his first start here. With the way his season is going, I fully expect the #99 Ford to challenge for the win on Sunday.

2. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” would be ranked number one this week, but I still don’t think that he’s running as well as normal. I know he’s second in points, but we’re not seeing the consistently strong #48 Chevy week in and week out, even though he still somehow manages to get the good finishes. His average driver rating over the past four races here has been 142.9–which is absolutely incredible–and he has recorded three wins in those four races. Jimmie’s average finish at Dover is 9.7 and he has six total wins here.

3. Ryan Newman - Believe it or not, this is statistically Newman’s best track on the circuit. He has 18 starts at Dover and has visited victory lane three times, although the most recent was in 2004. After his string of three sub-par races, “The Rocketman” notched another top five for the season last week in Darlington, and I full expect him to continue running strong this weekend. His average career finish at Dover is 10.3.

4. Kyle Busch - Let’s hope “Rowdy” and Kevin Harvick can stay away from each other this week–especially if you have Kyle on your fantasy roster. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, with six top five finishes (and four outside of the top twenty) in his twelve starts at “The Monster Mile”, but I think he will “hit” this weekend. Busch has two wins at this track, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to get around this place.

5. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has hit rough patch recently, with a best finish of 21st since his win at Texas, but I think he will “reverse the curse” this weekend in Dover. He finished 18th here last fall (he cut a tire while running near the top ten), but before that he had a streak of five straight top five finishes at “The Monster Mile”. Kenseth won here in 2006 and has averaged a finish of around 13th in his 24 starts here.

6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is finally getting his season turned around, getting two of his three top 10s in his past two starts. At Dover, Denny hasn’t been great, but he recorded top 10s in both races last season and I like the little momentum that he is building lately. Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, Hamlin is a bit hit-or-miss here, with half of his starts ending in finishes outside of the top twenty. Proceed with caution if you pick the #11 Toyota this weekend.

7. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is on a streak of two top 10s this season, and I think he will easily make it three after this weekend. He’s not as good as his teammate (Ryan Newman) is at Dover, but Tony isn’t terrible. He has three top 10s in his past four starts here and owns a career average finish of 11.8, which includes two wins. It’s never a good idea to go against Steward when he gets a little momentum.

8. Greg Biffle - In the last four races of this season, “The Biff” has three top 10s and a worst finish of just 15th. In the last four races at Dover, Biffle has two top 10s and a worst finish of 19th. He’s won here twice (in 2005 and 2008) and has posted a top ten finish in eight of his last ten starts at “The Monster Mile”. Look for Biffle to make it nine of his last eleven after this weekend.

9. Mark Martin - I think this may prove to be too high of a ranking for Mark Martin, but I just have a hunch about him this week. He’s finished outside of the top 20 just once this season, and I don’t think he will make that twice on Sunday. Martin finished 12th and 15th at Dover last season, but in 2009 he recorded top 10s in both races (including a 2nd-place effort in the fall race). Make sure you check out what I have to say in my Predictions article before locking him into your roster this weekend.

10. Jeff Burton - Each week I have said that Burton won’t get his first top ten of the season…but I think this is the week! He finished 2nd in both Dover races during the 2010 season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th since 2004. Burton won here in 2006, and while I don’t think he will get his second win at this track this weekend, I do believe that a top ten is likely.

11. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has just one top ten in his past six races this season, but he could grab another this season. I have him ranked lower than some others will, though, simply because of how bad he has been running recently. It’s like a weekly comedy routine reading all of his comments during the race on Twitter. The elder Busch brother has three top 5s in his past four starts at Dover, but he’s never won here. Will he finally turn things around this weekend?

12. Kevin Harvick - It’s hard to believe that “Happy” isn’t the first Richard Childress Racing car ranked this week, but he’s not that stellar at Dover. He finished 7th here last spring, but that has been just one of his two top 10s here in the last nine races. Harvick hasn’t finished worst than 17th in his last five starts at Dover, though, and I don’t think streak will end this weekend.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex actually didn’t have a huge problem last week! He got his second top ten of the season in Darlington, but do you think he can make it two in a row? It’s possible–he at Dover in 2007–but I don’t think he will. Truex has just one top 20 in his past four starts at this track, and that was a 12th last season. His career average finish here is 16.8.

14. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has finished 8th at “The Monster Mile” three times in his career, but he’s more likely to finish around 14th. His past five races here have ended with finishes of: 25th, 17th, 15th, and 11th. With Clint’s five-race top ten streak coming to an end last week (although it shouldn’t have), he should come out to prove that he can rebound, though, so this ranking may prove to be too low. Only time will tell.

15. Jeff Gordon - If you think Gordon is running up to potential this season, you are wrong. I know he won at Phoenix, but he’s usually not getting the finishes he deserves at his good tracks. This is why I have Jeff ranked so low this week. He finished 11th in both Dover races last season, and while he has finished outside of the top twelve just once in his past ten starts here, I think Gordon will have a hard time cracking the top ten this week. A top fifteen will be more likely for the #24 Chevrolet.

Underdogs Entering The FedEx 400:

Paul Menard - Now that Menard has fallen back down to earth, he’s back as an underdog. Like most tracks, he has been consistently average at Dover–with 71% of his finishes between 19th and 22nd–but he finished 7th here last fall after starting 9th. I don’t think he will grab another top ten, but a top fifteen is within reach.

David Reutimann - Reutty won the pole here in 2009 and recorded his first top five at this track in last season’s spring race. I don’t think he will get his first top ten of the season this weekend unless he gambles at the end, though.

David Ragan - Ragan was a little disappointing for me last week, but I still like how he is running this season. His best finish at Dover has been only 14th, but he’s been consistent here (his last four finishes have been 24th, 26th, 24th, 24th). It seems like the weeks you don’t expect the #6 to be strong are the ones that he is, so this may be the week.

A.J. Allmendinger - I seriously think The ‘Dinger could crack the top ten in points after this weekend. He has the seventh-best average driver rating at Dover over the past four races and has finishes of 29th, 7th, 14th, and 10th here since joining Richard Petty Motorsports. If he has a strong car like he has many times this season, expect Allmendinger to challenge for a top fifteen (and possibly a top ten).

Those To Avoid Entering The FedEx 400:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has just been top-ten good this season, or absolutely terrible, and this isn’t the week to take a chance with him on your fantasy roster. He has one top ten at Dover in twelve career starts, and that came back in 2005.

Marcos Ambrose - I typically like Marcos on tracks that are one-mile or less, but this week is the exception. His average finish at Dover is right around 24th and his best came in 2009 when he finished 14th. There are much better options this week than Ambrose.

Juan Montoya - Montoya has hit a cold spell this season, with a best finish of 23rd in the past three races, and although he finished 4th at Dover in 2009, that is his only top five at this track (and just his second top ten). If he qualifies in the top five, he could score a good run, but he’s a little too risky for me this weekend. I would avoid the #42.

Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to lie, last week’s top five finish by BK was a complete fluke. The only reason he got that 3rd-place was because he stayed out during the final pit stop. At Dover, he has made two starts, with 18th and 22nd-place runs to show for it. His driver ratings during those races, though, suggest to me that he lucked into those as well.

I will be back to posting my weekly Practice Breakdown and Post-Qualifying Predictions over on ifantasyrace.com, so be sure to check those out. The Sprint Cup All-Star weekend happens after Dover, so that will be an off-week for my Preview article. After that, though, it will return when the boys head to Charlotte for some Sunday night racing on May 29th.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: California - Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile “D-shaped” oval that is most similar to Michigan International Speedway. One difference between the two is that the track is Michigan has a little bit more banking than the one in California. Two hundred laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, making it just 400 miles from start to finish. The last fall race here in Fontana was the first that went just 200 laps (they usually go 250 when they visit Fontana). There is originally two races here during the Sprint Cup season, but schedule changes have taken away the October race in 2011–to the elation of many. The previous nine races held at this track have gone their scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At California…The lead changed hands many times last October (fourteen racers led) but it was Tony Stewart who crossed the finish line first. Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson started seventh and led 101 laps in route to his first victory of the season. Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished second and third, followed by Mark Martin and Joey Logano.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The time to take major chances was last week in Bristol. This week, you should go with the favorites and maybe sprinkle in a “surprise” pick if they look good on Friday and Saturday (like Marcos Ambrose at Las Vegas Motor Speedway). Qualifying is important, but don’t put a bunch of emphasis on it. In the two races at Auto Club Speedway in 2010, fourteen of the twenty top ten finishers started outside of the top ten. Last fall, average practice speeds weren’t too telling either. Click here for the results of the October race (they are sorted in order from fastest to slowest in average practice speed with their result underneath). During the last race here there were many pit road speeding violations, and those can mess up a roster real quick.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Auto Club 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson - This shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone–Jimmie Johnson owns this track. He’s made sixteen career starts in Fontana and his worst finish is 16th. In those sixteen races, Johnson owns eleven top three finishes and his career average finish here is 5.3. Over the past two years, the 48 Chevrolet had had an astounding 134.4 average driver rating at California. With five career wins at California–two of them coming in the last three races–Johnson should be a lock this weekend for everyone.

2. Carl Edwards - Nobody has been on more of a hot streak lately as Cousin Carl. He finished off the 2010 season with two straight wins and has finished in the top two in three of the four races this season. If he wouldn’t have had the wreck in Phoenix, that number just may be four-for-four. Edwards wasn’t great in Fontana last season–posting finishes of 13th and 34th–but it’s hard to go against someone who is running as well as Carl is. In thirteen career races at California, Edwards owns ten top seven finishes, and that includes one win (coming in 2008).

3. Tony Stewart - Since Stewart-Haas Racing was formed in 2009, “Smoke” has finished in the top ten in every race at California. He is the most recent winner here and looked awesome at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (even though that isn’t exactly like Auto Club Speedway). In nineteen career starts at this track, Stewart has amassed eleven top 10s. He was running pretty good at Bristol until he ran into his teammate, Ryan Newman, and I think Tony will be back up front this week.

4. Matt Kenseth - Roush-Fenway Racing–as well as all Fords in general–have been so fast to start the season that it’s hard to go against them at their “bread and butter” tracks. Kenseth has an average finish of 10.3 at Auto Club Speedway and from 2005 to 2009 he rattled off eight straight top 10s. Over that span, he collected three wins and never finished worse than 7th. Most of the Roush cars had engine difficulties last time the series was at Fontana, but as long as that doesn’t happen this weekend, it should be a perfect race to load up on the Roushkateers.

5. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had a top ten car in Las Vegas but engine problems made him retire early that day. He also had an engine problem in the October race at California, but he knows how to get around this track when he has a good car. Busch won here in 2005 and went on to record seven straight top tens after that. He hasn’t led a bunch of laps here, though, so don’t expect to see Kyle fighting for the lead all day. I love picking Kyle Busch after a win and this week is no exception. Joe Gibbs Racing engines have been hit-or-miss this year, though, so proceed with caution when selecting Busch.

6. Jeff Gordon - It was a great recovery for Gordon last October at Auto Club Speedway: he had a speeding penalty late and rallied back for a 9th-place finish. Jeff has won here three times and over the course of his career (21 races) he has an average finish of around 11th. He’s a little hit-or-miss at Fontana lately, though: in the last nine races he has four top three finishes, but he also has three finishes outside of the top fifteen over that span. Gordon has led at least one lap in each of the past six races held at California.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother hasn’t been as flashy as Carl Edwards this season, but he has been the most consistent driver in the series thus far, and he is coming into a track where he has one win and owns an average finish of 12.7. Three of the past four races in Fontana have ended with Kurt Busch in the top ten, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen this weekend. He finished 21st here in April, but the entire Penske stable looked average at best all weekend. In 17 career starts at Auto Club Speedway, Kurt has finished on the lead lap in 14 of them.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has never finished outside of the top 20 at California, and he needs a good run to kick-start his season. He didn’t look great at Las Vegas, which is part of the reason I have him ranked a little low, but Clint has been solid at California lately. His last three starts have netted him finishes of 2nd, 8th, and 9th. Bowyer has led just 44 laps in ten starts at Fontana, so don’t expect a dominating performance, but he is capable of getting a top ten. With the way his luck has been going this year, some people will hold off for a while on picking the #33, but if he has a good run on Sunday, you can gain a bunch of points on the competition.

9. Greg Biffle - As surprising as it may seem, “The Biff” actually isn’t as good at California as many would expect him to be. He has won here, but other than that he has been extremely hit-or-miss: in sixteen starts at Auto Club Speedway, Biffle has amassed four top fives but ten finishes 15th or worse. He had a dominant car at Las Vegas, though, which is really the only similar race you can go off of from this year, and all of the Fords have looked fast this season. It’s a risky pick, but it’s hard to go against the Roush-Fenway Fords at the intermediate tracks.

10. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is on a streak of three top 10s at California and has finished outside of the top 20 just once in his past nine starts at this track. He’s not great by any means here, though: Harvick’s career average finish is 17.1 and he had just four top 10s in his first fourteen career starts at Fontana. He may continue his streak of good finishes here, but it is certainly possible that he ends up with a teens finish on Sunday like he did at Las Vegas.

11. Paul Menard - Okay, I’ll hop onto the Paul Menard bandwagon this week. He’s had career-best finishes in every single race this season (seriously), so why not another one at Auto Club Speedway? Menard finished 18th here in the spring last year and that is his top finish in eight starts at this track. Everything is going right for this young man this season and unless you see his luck running out this week, he should be a good darkhorse pick this week. These intermediate tracks were the ones he was best on last season. Menard had 11th and 12th-place runs at Michigan while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

12. Kasey Kahne - Kasey was the surprise of the race for me in October at this track. He posted a fourth-place finish and a driver rating of 106.2. He’s had two 34th-place finishes at Fontana recently, but his other five races in that span have been top 12s. Kahne’s average finish at Auto Club Speedway is 15.4 and his average start is around 10th. He won here in 2006 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. Scott Speed drove the #82 car (basically the #4 car that Kahne is in now) to an 11th-place finish here last season.

13. Mark Martin - I said don’t pick Martin last week and regretted that after he posted a 12th-place finish in “Thunder Valley”. He’s not having a terrible season (he sits 11th in points) but I don’t think his is racing up to potential yet. Martin has finished 6th, 4th, and 4th in his last three starts at Fontana, but I don’t expect him to finish there this weekend. Mark’s average finish here is 13.3 and I think that is closer to where he will end up on Sunday.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior didn’t have a great race like I expected at Bristol last week, but he still posted a solid 11th-place finish. He’s not good at California by any means (22.3 career average finish) but I love picking him when he is on a roll, and he has been consistent every race after Daytona this year. He has won at Michigan–the track most similar to Fontana–and he had a 2nd-place finish here in 2006. I’m not going to guarantee a top ten finish this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Junior finished 8th at Las Vegas and ended up 16th at the last race here after starting 9th.

15. Denny Hamlin - It might just be me, but Hamlin has been quietly average this season. His best finish so far in 2011 came in Las Vegas when he drove from the back of the pack to grab a top ten. Other than that race, I haven’t been impressed by the driver that won eight races in 2010. Hamlin has been hit-or-miss at Auto Club Speedway lately with three top 10s in the past six races but also three finishes 29th or worse in that span. Be cautious when picking Hamlin this week. His career average finish here is 17.2.

Underdogs Entering The Auto Club 400:

Brian Vickers - Red Bull Racing seems like they either bring top ten cars to these intermediate tracks or 25th-place cars. Last spring at California, Vickers finished 12th–right behind his then-teammate, Scott Speed. Brian hasn’t looked overly impressive this season, but he finished 10th at Las Vegas and six finishes in the top 12 over his past seven starts at California.

David Ragan - Like I said, don’t go against the Roushkateers on intermediates. Ragan could have won the pole at Vegas but spun in qualifying and finished 22nd after starting in the back. In his first six starts at Auto Club Speedway, Ragan never finished worse than 17th, but last year he finished 32nd and 23rd. I expect him to get back on track this weekend and could pull off a surprise top ten.

Marcos Ambrose - The only reason I’m listing him as an underdog is because of how well he ran at Las Vegas. Ambrose has never finished better than 22nd at Auto Club Speedway, but Kasey Kahne drove this #9 Ford to a top five finish the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited this track. Keep your eye on Marcos this weekend.

David Reutimann - It seems like the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas are either great cars or they fall of during the race and finish around 20th. Reutimann finished 13th in Las Vegas and posted 10th and 15th-place efforts at Fontana in 2010. In eight career starts here, Reutty has four top 15s, with two of them being top 10s.

Those To Avoid Entering The Auto Club 400:

Jeff Burton - Not only is he having absolutely no luck this season but Burton is also decent at best at Auto Club Speedway. He finished 3rd here last February but that is his only top ten in the last five races here. Wait until the #31 Chevrolet has (at least) a decent run before even thinking about picking him.

Joey Logano - Joey’s average finish here is 14th but, like Burton, he seems to be having problems each week, whether it be an engine problem or a loose wheel. Go ahead and pick the #20 if you want, but he has burned me too many times in 2011 to recommend him right now.

Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac is also having terrible luck this season, but even if he wasn’t I wouldn’t recommend him at Fontana. He won both poles last year but led only 14 laps and finished 17th in both races. He hasn’t had a top ten here since 2006 and his average finish since then has been 22.8.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex looked like his normal self last week, being hit-or-miss. He had a good run in the beginning of the race but fell back. Martin finished 6th at Las Vegas, which will make some people look at him this week, but his average finish at California is 21.2 and he hasn’t had a top fifteen finish here since 2008.

If you had a bad week at Bristol, don’t worry: so did I. Just shrug it off because that track is a tricky one to predict. This week should be easier. Be sure to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and check out NASCAR Nation–there are many great members there to chat about racing with!

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Bristol - Jeff Byrd 500

Now that the off-weekend has passed, the Sprint Cup Series will have points-paying races for the next two months straight. In honor of the passing of Bristol Motor Speedway’s long-time president and general manager last October, the event at “The Bullring” this weekend will be named the Jeff Byrd 500 Presented by Food City. Five-hundred laps are set to be run on this 0.533-mile racetrack, and there should be very few that aren’t exciting. Only one of the past five races here have gone past the scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At Bristol…Kyle Busch started 19th but quickly made his way to the front and wound up leading 282 laps before taking the checkered flag–his fourth win at this track. To the surprise of many, David Reutimann backed up his top five qualifying effort with a 2nd-place finish, while Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five. The spring race at Bristol saw Jimmie Johnson get the win, even though Kurt Busch led the most laps that day (278).

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…This is the week to take an underdog or two, as it seems one of them always finds their way to the front (Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose come to mind). On Friday, a practice session will be held (disregard these speeds) and then qualifying. There will then be two practices held on Saturday, which will help you get an idea of who is fast because they will all be in race trim. Starting position definitely helps on this track, but if a driver has a good car and starts in the back, he should be able to stay on the lead lap and eventually get up to the front. During the last race at Bristol, half of the top ten finishers started outside of the top ten.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kyle Busch - Remember a few weeks ago at Phoenix how good Jimmie Johnson was at that track? Same thing here at Bristol with Kyle Busch. “Rowdy” has won three of the past five races at this short track, and his other two finishes were 2nd and 9th. In those five starts, Kyle has led 45.7% of the laps ran. His best starting spot in his career here is 9th, though, so don’t expect a pole run on Friday. Since 2006, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 17th–and that was his only run outside of the top ten. His career average finish of 9.3 at Bristol is best in the series. You will gain major points by leaving Busch off your roster if something happens to him–as most people this week will pick him–but are you willing to take that risk?

2. Kurt Busch - Like “Shrub”, Kurt Busch is an awesome pick at Bristol as well. From 2002 through 2004, the elder Busch brother won four races here in five starts. I made the mistake of leaving him off my fantasy rosters during that time, trying to gain major points in the off-chance his wins were a fluke. They weren’t. Kurt’s results haven’t been as good since joining Penske Racing, but they haven’t been terrible either. He’s on a streak of three top 10s at Bristol and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 since the spring race in 2007. Look for the points leader to  have another solid top ten finish this week, if not a top five.

3. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was just one of three drivers to score five top 10s in the six short track races last year. He’s also off to a very hot start this season, with a win last week in Las Vegas and cars capable of winning in all three races (according to him anyway). He’s won here at Bristol twice and posted finishes of 12th and 6th in 2010. Since 2006, Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 16th. Will the 99 team bring another super-fast Ford to Tennessee this week?

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you would have told me before Daytona that Junior would have two top tens (and one of them wasn’t at Daytona) and be 10th in points after three races, I would have called you crazy, but lo and behold, it’s true. The team switches at Hendrick Motorsports seem to have benefited Dale Jr the most–thus far–and he’s on a roll coming into his best track (statistically). Little E hasn’t finished worse than 18th since 2001 and has collected one win at this track (coming in 2004). His career average finish here is 11.5 and his last three finishes at “The Bullring” have been 13th, 7th, and 9th. This ranking may be high to some, but Junior is off to a great start this season and definitely knows how to get around this track (he had seven top 10s in eight starts from 2004 to 2008). I think Junior’s momentum will translate into a top five this week (and maybe even a win).

5. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” won the pole here last April, but it was Kyle Busch who went on to win the race. Johnson led 175 laps but finished a disappointing 35th in that race because he got wrecked by Juan Montoya. Jimmie’s previous three starts before last fall gave him finishes of 1st, 8th, and 3rd, but from 2005 to 2008 (eight races) he had only two top ten finishes. I think there are better picks than Johnson this week, but it’s hard to go against a guy who has won five straight championships. I don’t think the 48 team has been running very well at all in 2010, either, so pay attention to the car in practice. Johnson has started in the top five in three of the last four races in “Thunder Valley” and has had the second-best driver rating over that span, though, so it’s not like he hasn’t ran well at this track.

6. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” won’t lead a bunch of laps, but don’t be surprised if he posts a solid finish around 6th. In the past seven races at Bristol, Newman has finished 6th or 7th in five of them. When he doesn’t have strong race, though, it’s usually a pretty bad finish (in eight finishes outside of the top ten, six of them have been 30th or worse). The 39 Chevrolet has two straight top tens, and you know I like momentum early in the season.

7. Greg Biffle - “The Biff” disappointed many fantasy owners last week–well, I guess it was his gas man–but don’t expect another sub-par finish this week. The 16 Ford found the top ten in both Bristol races in 2010, and in six of the past eight (the other two were 39th and 11th-place efforts). Biffle has made sixteen career starts in “Thunder Valley” and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. This is his second-best track statistically behind Kansas. Good pick this week? Yes, as long as they got that fuel problem figured out over the break.

8. Matt Kenseth - Like Biffle, this Roushkateer was on a bunch of rosters in Vegas but didn’t have that great of a race. I expect Kenseth to have a good week in Bristol, though: he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s here and has finished there in five of the last six. I have liked the Roush-Fenway Fords in the first three races of 2011, and that hasn’t changed this week. Kenseth won here in 2006, but since then he hasn’t led a lap at “The Bullring” and just one top five. As usual with the 17, pick him if he qualifies near the front (top 15).

9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a great season in 2010, but his Bristol races were less than stellar (19th and 34th-place finishes). Before that, though, he had four straight finishes between 2nd and 6th. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate is arguably the best here, so one can expect those two teams to help each other. Denny changed an engine last week and came back to record a solid top ten, and they say Las Vegas is the place to start streaks. One food for thought, though: is there something wrong with the Gibbs engines? In addition to Hamlin having to switch engines last week, teammate Joey Logano had engine difficulties in Phoenix and the other Gibbs racer, Kyle Busch, blew an engine at Vegas.

10. Jeff Burton - Does anybody need a good run more than this guy? I know I said the same thing last week, but when will the bad luck end (if you even consider this luck)? Burton is 32nd in points after last week’s 21st-place run at Las Vegas, right in front of Casey Mears by five points (even though Mears has started one less race). I’d like to see the 31 crew look more competitive thus far in the season to recommend him, but the spring race has been kind to them recently: the last four March races have given Burton top tens in each, including a win (2008) and a runner-up finish (2007). One last note: make sure the 31 Chevrolet is fast before putting it on your final roster, though.

11. Jeff Gordon - I expect Gordon will qualify well (his career average start here is 6.8) but won’t stay up front very long. In the last eight races here, Gordon has led only eleven laps, and while he has five wins in “Thunder Valley,” the last one was in 2002. In the last seven races here, Gordon owns just two top tens. He finished 11th and 14th here in 2010, and I think he will fall in right around there on Sunday. Jeff has won five poles at Bristol, though, so he could gain you some valuable bonus points in the Yahoo! game.

12. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is usually hit or miss at Bristol, but I love picking him when he’s on a roll and I love picking drivers that have momentum to start the season. After last week’s disappointing 2nd-place finish, Stewart comes into a track where he has won before (in 2001) and owns eight top 10s. He finished runner-up to Johnson in the spring race last year and from 2006 to 2008 Stewart led over 30% of the laps ran on this 0.533-mile track. He knows how to get around here, but he will be a risky pick this week. Watch him in practice, and if he is fast in average practice speed, pick him (trust me).

13. Kevin Harvick - If you read anything I said about Harvick in the off-season, you know I don’t expect a lot out of him this year. He’s had good runs, but like his teammate Burton, luck hasn’t been on Happy’s side (but his performance at Phoenix was very impressive). Harvick has one win (2005) and has finished runner-up four times at Bristol, but hasn’t cracked the top ten in the last four races. His career average finish here is 12.3, though, so he knows how to get around the track.

14. Clint Bowyer - He doesn’t have a top ten this season yet, but that could change this weekend. Bowyer ran 4th in the fall race here in 2010 and during the four races in 2007 and 2008, he rattled off four straight top tens. Clint’s best finish at Bristol has been 3rd, which he has done twice (that is also his best starting spot). In ten career races in “Thunder Valley,” Bowyer has usually finished around 16th while starting around 20th.

15. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s average finish in his first four starts at this track was an impressive 7.3, but over the next twelve races, that quickly plummeted to 18.3. He has had good runs here recently, though, with top ten finishes in both Bristol races in 2010 and an 11-th place effort in the fall race during the 2009 season. I doubt he’ll get a top ten this week, but a top fifteen isn’t out of the question.

Underdogs Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Marcos Ambrose - As you may know, I love keeping Ambrose in my mind when it comes to short tracks. The Tasmanian posted two top ten finishes here in his first two starts, but slipped back last year with 33rd and 20th-place efforts. Will he return to 2009 form? They say Las Vegas is a place to start streaks, and Ambrose had an awesome run there.

Paul Menard - I don’t think many people expected Menard to be 6th in points after three races, or be the best driver (thus far) in the Richard Childress Racing stable. Coming off a 12th-place finish at Vegas, I could see Menard getting a career-best finish at Bristol (his current one is 16th in 2008). He has finished worse than 25th only once in seven career starts in “Thunder Valley”.

David Reutimann - He ran strong here the last time the series visited the track, finishing 2nd to Kyle Busch. Will he be able to repeat that performance? Reutty got his best finish of the season in Las Vegas, coming home 13th. He usually qualifies well at Bristol and the last four races here have given Reutimann finishes of 2nd, 38th, 17th, and 12th. A solid top twenty is expected.

Brad Keselowski - Believe it or not, Bristol is Keselowski’s fourth-best track (statistically). He’s raced here twice and finished 19th and 13th. Kurt Busch put some up great runs in the “Blue Deuce” at this track, can BK continue the tradition?

Those To Avoid Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Mark Martin - I have been on the Martin “bandwagon” for the last eight or so Sprint Cup races, but I am officially jumping off. It’s obvious he got the short end of the stick at Hendrick, as his finishes have been average at best this season (even though it usually seems it has a good car). Martin has won the pole here in two of the past four races, so you may pick him to get the bonus points in the Yahoo! game, but I think this week will yield another disappointing ending for Mark Martin fantasy owners: he has just three top tens in his past sixteen Bristol starts.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” may look like a good pick this week based on his qualifying efforts at Bristol (average start of 8.8 in four starts), but don’t let that fool you: he’s never finished on the lead lap here and his best finish is 18th. The 20 crew needs a good week to turn their season around, but I don’t see that happening in “Thunder Valley”.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger’s last two spring starts at Bristol have given him 17th and 16th-place finishes, but his five other starts have seen him end up worse than 30th. A.J. slipped in the points after Las Vegas, and I expect him to fall a little further once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

Bobby Labonte - Labonte should settle into his expected final points position after this week. Ambrose put up a good run in this car last year, but Bobby couldn’t even figure out this track when he was in his prime. In 36 starts at Bristol, Labonte has just ten top tens and an average finish of 20.4.

Anything can happen at Bristol, so don’t take it too hard if you have a bad fantasy week (we all have a couple). Don’t forget to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500

Sunday will be the final time a race will be held at Phoenix International Raceway before its repaving and reconfiguration, which will begin after the Subway Fresh Fit 500 is completed. When the Sprint Cup series comes back here in November, drivers will find a wider front-stretch and a reconfigured dogleg turn. PIR President has stated, ”We are thrilled with the design. … This race has always been pretty pivotal in crowning our Sprint Cup champion, and in this case, the notes from the previous races are not going to be worth much. It’s going to be a whole new game.” On Sunday, though, you can expect familiar faces up front.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…Last November, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson were fighting for the championship with just two races to go. Carl Edwards started from the pole and stayed in the top five all day, getting the win and ending his 70-race winless streak. Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top five. Hamlin led the most laps that day but had to pit late for fuel, as did Juan Montoya when he was running 2nd.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Forget about last week. If you escaped Daytona with a solid week, good job. If most of your drivers wrecked, don’t worry: there’s a lot of people in that boat. Onto the next week. At Phoenix, make sure you pay attention to average practice speeds as well as who gets the pole. Only one driver outside of the top ten in average practice speeds last fall at Phoenix finished worse than 15th and two of the last three pole winners here have gone on to win the race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - There is no reason that “The Champ” shouldn’t be near the top of everyone’s lists going into the race this weekend; Jimmie is the best driver here and this is his best track (statistically). Johnson has led more laps here than anyone in the series–including Mark Martin (who has raced in 13 more races at Phoenix than his Hendrick Motorsports teammate). JJ has an astounding average finish of 4.93 here (over 15 career races) with a worst finish of 15th. Surprisingly, “Five-Time” has only one pole win here, though. You can still expect Chad Knaus to give Jimmie a good car, though. Since 2006, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 5th at Phoenix.

2. Carl Edwards - The Cup Series points leader is the most recent winner of this track and in the past three points-paying races (going back to last year) his finishes have been 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Over the past two years at Phoenix (four races), Cousin Carl hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has amassed three top tens. In his career, Edwards has 10 top tens in 13 races and an average finish of 11.9. In 2007, he won the pole and led 87 of the first 125 laps before his engine blew, giving him a finish of 42nd. There is no reason we shouldn’t see the 99 car up front again this week.

3. Mark Martin - First off, can you believe Mark came back from three laps down last week to get a top ten at Daytona? Me neither. Phoenix has been Martin’s second-best track over his career and he has finished outside of the top twenty just once in his 28 starts here (a DNF in 1988–his first start here). Since coming to Hendrick, Mark has had finishes of 1st, 4th, 4th, and 8th. Since 1989, Martin has completed all but one lap at Phoenix.

4. Jeff Gordon - Hendrick Motorsports teams are just pretty good at this flat track. You won’t see Gordon leading a bunch of laps (he has led in just one of his past seven starts here), but he has shown that he can get a solid finish. Gordon has 21 total top 20’s in his 24 career starts here, and 17 of those have been top tens. He also has the best average start in the Cup series at Phoenix.

5. Denny Hamlin - I’ve learned to keep Hamlin in my mind whenever the boys race at a flat track, and Phoenix has been a good track for him. As I stated before, Hamlin led the most laps last time at Phoenix but didn’t get the win because he had to hit pit road late so he didn’t run out of fuel. Denny has started eleven races in the Sprint Cup series at Phoenix, and has finished worse than 16th only twice. He has never won here, but Hamlin has finished 3rd four times at this track.

6. Kurt Busch - He didn’t accomplish the trifecta at Daytona, but Kurt Busch still left with a top five and a fourth-place points position. In his last five Phoenix starts, Busch has led laps in four of them (and earned top tens in those four races as well). He has only nine top tens in sixteen career starts here, but since 2008 it seems like Busch has figured this track out more and become more consistent. If he starts worse than 15th, though, I wouldn’t pick him (only one top ten in those five starts).

7. Jeff Burton - Burton’s last two finishes at Phoenix have been sub-par (19th and 25th), but he has still been very consistent here: since 1996 he has finished outside of the top 20 only once. Since 1998, Burton has finished on the lead lap in every races. You won’t see the 31 near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, but that hasn’t mattered over the years. With two wins at the track, Jeff definitely knows how to maneuver around this three-turn flat track.

8. Juan Montoya - If it wasn’t for a shortage of fuel, Montoya would be on a three-race streak of top tens at Phoenix. Last fall, while running 2nd, the 42 car had to pit under green to avoid running out of fuel. He ended up finishing a disappointing 16th. Juan has ended up in the top 20 in 75% of his starts at Phoenix International Raceway. In the April race in 2010, Montoya led 104 laps and came away with a top five.

9. Joey Logano - Sliced Bread’s first two starts at Phoenix yielded disappointing finishes (21st in both), but the young gun has gotten used to this track since then. Last year he got his first top ten here after starting sixth, and last fall Logano ended up 3rd. He has never led a lap here, but after this Sunday that could change.

10. Kyle Busch - Over the past four races at Phoenix, Rowdy has the third-best driver rating (behind Johnson and Martin). However, like at Daytona last week, he hasn’t been able to get the finish in those races. He hasn’t been terrible, but the finishes don’t match the driver rating. In the past four races, Kyle has finished 13th, 8th, 12th, and 17th. He has just two finishes outside of the top 20 in twelve career starts. Busch has won here before but usually finishes between 7th and 13th.

11. Greg Biffle - The Biff has been surprisingly consistent over the fast few years at Phoenix. He finihed 4th in the fall race last year after his sub-par 22nd in the spring race. Over the past eight races here, Biffle hasn’t finished worse than that 22nd last spring and has four top tens in those eight starts. He won’t run up front all day (he’s only led at least one lap in one of the past nine races) but you should expect him to finish on the lead lap.

12. Tony Stewart -Statistically, “Smoke” is the fifth-best driver at flat tracks with average finish of 11.4. At Phoenix, it isn’t much different as he has an average finish of 12th in 18 career starts. In his first start here, he won after starting 11th and went on to record seven top tens in the next eleven races at Phoenix. I will tell you to watch Stewart closely, though: his previous three finishes have been 17th, 23rd, and 25th.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex is going to live up to the type that everyone has placed on him this year, he’s going to need to do good at his best tracks. Phoenix is his third best track statistically with an average finish of 15.6 in ten career starts. In the November 2008 race, he finished dead last after an overheating problem, but other than that his worst finish has been 22nd. While driving the #1 Chevy for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Truex grabbed the pole and earned a 5th place finish in the November 2009 race at PIR.

14. Kevin Harvick - Happy probably isn’t too happy after blowing an engine at Daytona, but he should be able to get a decent finish this week. In sixteen career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins and seven top tens. During his magical 2010 season, he finished 13th in the April race and 6th in the November race while challenging for the championship. He usually does better in the fall race here, so make sure you watch him in practice this weekend.

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If Junior is going to prove to people that he can actually drive a car, he needs to start getting the finishes. At Daytona last week, he was near the front before having to pit and go to the back of the pack. He was then caught up in a wreck, ruining his chances of winning. Little E has won at Phoenix twice before, and last year he finished 12th and 14th. He’s usually hit-or-miss at Phoenix, so be careful if you are going to pick him. He has ten top 20s in 17 starts here, but five finishes of 30th or worse as well.

Underdogs Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose has been decent at Phoenix his whole career. He has two 11th place finishes to his credit, and hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in five starts here. He drives the 9 car for Richard Petty Motorsports, which is the same car that Aric Almirola qualified 9th with in the November race here at Phoenix.

David Reutimann - Reutty has two top tens at this track, and both came in 2009. His average finish here is 19.9, so don’t expect a top ten, but if he can get a good starting spot and find the right setup for the race, he could be a surprise come Sunday.

A.J. Allmendinger - Like Ambrose, Allmendinger has been very consistent at Phoenix. He has been pretty good at qualifying, too, starting 2nd and 1st in his past two starts here. In five starts at PIR, The Dinger has four finishes between 13th and 18th.

Bobby Labonte - He started off the first season with his new team with a great showing at Daytona, and he could get a solid top 20 this weekend with them. Labonte ended up 20th last year while driving the 09 car for Phoenix Racing and back when he drove for Petty has just one finish outside of the top twenty in six starts. With–arguably–his best equipment in years, Bobby could surprise people this year.

Those To Avoid Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Regan Smith - He proved me wrong last week in Daytona, but you won’t find him on my rosters this week, either. In five starts at Phoenix, Smith hasn’t finished better than 23rd, but he has started in the top ten twice.

Paul Menard - If you are looking for a driver that will give you a mid-20’s finish, go with Menard, but don’t expect much more. He has eight starts at Phoenix International Raceway, but hasn’t finished better than 21st–or worse than 29th.

Brian Vickers - His return to racing didn’t go as well as he planned, and I don’t expect Vickers’ season to suddenly turn around at Phoenix. His past four starts here have produced three finishes of 38th or worse, and while he has one top fife here (in 2005), that is also his only top ten.

Brad Keselowski - BK has a 16th-place finish to his credit at Phoenix, but his other two starts ended in 42nd and 37th-place finishes. His 42nd came in last year’s fall race, where he hit the wall early and couldn’t recover.

2009 OPer Awards: Best Post Race Celebration

Carl Edwards pulled an upset of sorts by winning the OPeR for best post-race celebration, even though he the NASCAR stats show that he failed to win a Sprint Cup race in 2009.

Steve convinced me that Carl’s Talladega post-crash dash across the finish line on foot - ala Ricky Bobby - was the best of the year.

My first choice was Kurt Busch’s backwards victory laps. I know they’re a bit hokey, but Kurt stuck with them and at least he got to do a couple by winning some races.

2008 OPeR Award: Worst Attempt at Adjusting the Rules

Unlike my pal Steve, who never read a rule book tight enough for his satisfaction, I love cheating. Therefore, though awkwardly named, this is my favorite OPeR.

And in 2008, it was well won.

By using a glorified refrigerator magnet to limit the apparent power of their engines in dyno tests, Joe Gibbs Racing nabbed the ON PIT ROW hutzpa award for ‘08.

But it was no slam dunk. Bob Osborne and the no. 99 team nearly stole it with the “ejecting oil tank lid”. Nice try guys.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Junior High School Drama

Last year, it was Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth who mixed it up - in a very lame way - in the pits and earned the dreaded “High School Musical” OPeR. Or was it Kevin Harvick and Robby Gordon? Or Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart?

Whatever. This time, there was no mix-up. Happy Harvick and Cousin Carl got into it after practice for a Nationwide Series race and there were plenty of photogs around to catch the action.

If only the ruckus had happened at one of Humpy Wheeler’s races, we might actually have some of those pics.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Crew Chief

This was a close one. Bob Osborne, crew chief for Carl Edwards No 99 Office Depot Ford Fusion was a strong contender for our top crew chief. The comments from our original 2008 OPeR post are a good indication. If Bob had won, I would have had no problem with it.

But Ozzy didn’t get the coveted OPeR this time. Chad (yaawwnn) Knaus did. Again.

Once again, Knaus seemingly made all the right moves, the necessary adjustments and took advantage of heading the most stable of all Sprint Cup Series teams, from 2007 to 2008. Somebody’s going to have to beat these guys.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Post Race Interview

The best post-race interviews almost never involve the winner of the race. Those guys have just too many commercial obligations to cover for their respective sponsors. It’s hard to fit anything interesting in between the thank-you’s.

Our favorite one in 2008 was Carl Edwards’ explanation of his “video game pass” attempt for the lead on the final turn at Kansas Motor Speedway.

The “move” itself has won a bunch of recognition, including the “Monster Moment” on the 2008 Sprint Cup Awards Show. But we especially liked Carl’s deadpan description of what he was was trying to do - and why - after the race. Too cool.

Next Page »

Copyright © 2012 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!