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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Atlanta - Advocare 500

For the first time since the Sprint Cup Series started racing here, this will be the first and last race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this season. As you probably remember from off-season changes, the second Atlanta race was dropped (in response to requests by owner Bruton Smith) so that Kentucky Speedway–also owned by Smith–would be able to host an event for the top series in NASCAR. Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval race track with 24-degree banking in the turns and just 5-degree banking on the straightaways. Charlotte Motor Speedway has the exact same banking and is a 1.5-mile quad-oval, so I will be looking back at that race often in this article as well as some of the other intermediate track results. Surprisingly, no driver has a career average finish here better than 10th.

During The Last Race At Atlanta…Back in September of last season, Tony Stewart led 176 of the 325 laps and grabbed his first victory of the 2010 season. Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, and Kyle Busch rounded out the top five that day. Polesitter Denny Hamlin led 74 laps but an engine problem ended his day early and in 43rd place. In the March race at this track, Kurt Busch put the Blue Deuce in victory lane with Matt Kenseth, Juan Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Paul Menard following him to the line. Kurt Busch and Montoya were the only two drivers that were able to post top 10s in both Atlanta races last season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Advocare 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - Although his average finish at Atlanta is 10.4, Jimmie Johnson’s is the best of anyone in the series here. The five-time champion has won three times at this 1.54-mile track and his average driver rating of 104.6 over the past four races here is fifth-best in the series. I still think this team is going to get another win before the Chase starts, and they are really starting to click lately, with four straight top 10s and three of them being in the top 4. In the last two cookie cutter races–Kentucky and Michigan–Johnson has finished 3rd and 2nd, and he finished 3rd here at Atlanta last September.

2. Matt Kenseth - This team has prepared a brand new chassis for this race on Saturday night, and if you look back at what has happened this season, that’s bad news for the rest of the field. At Texas and Dover–in April and May, respectively–Kenseth had a new chassis and visited victory lane both times. That’s not saying he’s a guaranteed lock for a victory on Saturday night, but with eleven straight finishes of 13th or better at Atlanta, you know he’s going to be in the running for the win. By the way: of those eleven straight, six have been top 5s.

3. Kyle Busch - Rowdy’s record isn’t stellar here by any means, but he’s been great on the intermediate tracks this season and that shouldn’t change this weekend. As you probably remember, Busch won at Michigan a few weeks ago and also dominated at Kentucky back in July after finishing 3rd in the first Michigan race. Kyle has started in the top 5 in each of the last three Atlanta races but has just one good finish to show for it (a 5th last September). He has just three top 10s in thirteen starts at this 1.54-mile track, but remember that he won here in 2008 after leading 173 laps and could very well find himself bowing to the crowd for the fifth time this season on Saturday night.

4. Jeff Gordon - With all of the success the next driver in my rankings is having recently (hint: his initials are BK), Gordon’s hot streak has been a little overshadowed. In the last three months, though, Jeff hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 and has just one result worse than 13th. He also has top 10 finishes in the two most recent cookie cutter races (Michigan and Kentucky), but Gordon struggled at Atlanta in 2010, with finishes of 18th and 13th. Before that, though, he had five straight top 10s here, and with his history here (four wins and twenty-three top 10s in thirty-seven races) I don’t see Jeff Gordon finishing any place near his results last season at this track.

5. Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to say much about BK this week–you know the streak he’s on, and not picking him would be like going against Jimmie Johnson during the Chase. At Atlanta, his finishes haven’t been great, bur Keselowski’s best finish at Bristol before his win last weekend was 13th. History doesn’t matter when a driver and team are running like this. Remember though: Keselowski was looking like a top ten car here last March before Carl tried to kill him.

6. Kurt Busch - Kurt has been in a slump lately (one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races) but he’s coming to a track that has been kind to him lately. The elder Busch brother has the second-best average driver rating at Atlanta over the last four races here and has led the most laps (373) over that span as well, which includes two victories, a 6th-place finish, and a 38th. He actually had a perfect driver rating (150.0) during his win in March of 2009 here, where Kurt led 234 of the 330 laps after starting 2nd. Since 2006, Kurt has finished outside of the top 15 just once at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

7. Denny Hamlin - In the last four Atlanta races, Denny Hamlin has the third-best average driver rating of all drivers despite posting just one top 10 finish. He has also led at least 23 laps in each of the last three events here. Do you know what that says? Hamlin runs well here, but doesn’t get the finish. With the Chase looming, Hamlin should be on his A-game Saturday night and with a new TRD engine under the hood, I wouldn’t be worried about any engine problems like he has experienced before on the bigger tracks this year. In eleven starts at Atlanta, only two races have ended with Hamlin having a driver rating of less that 88.8, yet he only has three top 10s.

8. Carl Edwards - Carl broke out of his little slump last weekend with a top 10 at Bristol, but was the really the run that put them back on the map? He was favored to win that race by many people yet led only two laps and finished 9th. This team hasn’t really been on top of its game since June and I don’t see them as a top 5 car going into the race. That may change once practice and qualifying is over with, though, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying Predictions at ifantasyrace.com. Edwards has made thirteen starts at Atlanta and has four finishes of 37th or worse. In the nine other races, though, Carl has three wins, two 2nd-place finishes, two 3rd-place finishes, and two 7th-place finishes.

9. Ryan Newman - Over the last seven Sprint Cup races, “The Rocketman” has quietly notched five top 10s and a worst finish of 16th. In the most recent cookie cutter events, Newman has finished 5th and 6th in the two Michigan races and came home 4th at Kentucky. He also looked good at the intermediates earlier this year–which was surprising–with top 5s at both Las Vegas and California. At Atlanta, Newman has two top 10s in his last three starts and he won every single pole here from 2003 through 2005 (six races!). He won’t win on Saturday night but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Flyin’ Ryan grab another top 10 and clinch his spot in the Chase.

10. Tony Stewart - This is one pick that could very easily change a whole bunch of positions in my rankings once practice and qualifying are over with. Smoke’s comments about his team didn’t help much at all last weekend at Bristol, as the #14 Chevrolet came home in 28th place, but Atlanta is a track where this team could get a boost and head into the Chase (or stumble once again). In twenty-four career starts here, Stewart has twenty top 20 finishes–with fourteen of those being top 10s–and has visited victory lane three times. Smoke is also the most recent race winner here and his most recent cookie cutter finishes include a 7th and 9th at the two Michigan races and a 12th-place effort in Kentucky.

11. Kasey Kahne - If this team makes no mistakes this weekend has the #4 Toyota has speed, Kasey Kahne could visit victory lane on Saturday night. However, we all know how under-performing this Red Bull team has been all season and with just two of their eight top 10s on the season coming at cookie cutter tracks, it’s hard to say they are a flat out favorite this week. In the last four Atlanta races, though, Kasey has the best average driver rating and has three top 10s, including a win in 2009, which was his second at this 1.54-mile track. He’s hit-or-miss here, though, so be cautious: in fourteen starts here, Kahne has eight top 10s and six finishes of 28th or worse.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - I personally think Dale Junior is already a lock for the Chase, but because it’s still mathematically possible that he misses it, the talking heads at ESPN and ABC will continue to blab about him all race (unfortunately for us). That being said, I don’t think Junior will push the issue on Saturday night, and if he can post a solid top 15, I think he will be alright with that and feel confident in his Chase chances. He has one victory at Atlanta–which came back in 2004–but hasn’t finished better than 11th here in five races. This Chevrolet has been a mid-teen car for the last month and a half, and I don’t see that changing much. Believe it or not, Earnhardt has just one top 10 in the last ten Sprint Cup races, and that was a 9th at Pocono.

13. Greg Biffle - It’s a cookie cutter track, that should be a lock for Biffle and the Roush crew to all get top 10s, right!? Not so fast. Greg has nine top 10s here in sixteen starts and an average finish of 16.3. He has never won here and of those nine top 10s, only three have been top 5s. He has two top 10s over the last two years here but also two finishes outside of the top 30. Also, the last three intermediate races have ended with Biffle in 20th, 21st, and 15th (Michigan, Kentucky, and Michigan again). If this team struggles to find speed in practice, expect to find the #16 Ford on my avoid list on Saturday.

14. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, JPM has three straight top 10s at this track. Many believe that this will be the site of his first oval win, and I could see that happening, but not this weekend. Could a top 15 be provided by the #42 Chevrolet on Saturday night, though? It’s certainly possible. If he qualifies in the top 10 or so, I’d consider Juan this weekend. If not, just pass; his momentum coming into this race is less than stellar, anyway: Montoya has five finishes of 19th or worse in the last month and a half.

15. Marcos Ambrose - Marcos has scored the ninth-most points of anyone in the series over the last three Sprint Cup races and has had some decent runs at Atlanta recently. Last March, he finished 11th after starting 12th, and Marcos came back in September and posted his first top 10 at this 1.54-mile track despite starting the race in 32nd. He has been a 20s type of driver in recent cookie cutter races, though, so make sure you keep an eye on Ambrose in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Advocare 500:

Kevin Harvick - To say this team is struggling is an understatement. The #29 Chevrolet has looked good over the past month or two in practice, but has really disappointed fantasy owners on race day, with just one top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races. He won the race at Charlotte, but you have to remember that fuel mileage was a factor, and he spent much of that race outside of the top 15. Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races at Atlanta but his career average finish here of 20.5 is nothing to ride home about. Going into the race, Harvick is a mid-teens driver at best, and fantasy championships aren’t won picking those guys.

David Reutimann - Reutty is at his best on these intermediate race tracks but Atlanta is a completely different story for him. He has a 4th-place finish to his name that came back in 2009, but in his other six starts here, Reutimann has a best finish of 16th and has cracked the top 20 just twice. His only top 10s of this 2011 season have came at Charlotte and Kentucky, but other than those two races this #00 team has been sub-par at best on the ovals.

David Ragan - Statistically, this is David’s fifth-worst track on the circuit, with a career average finish of 25.6. He posted an 8th-place finish in October of 2008, but other than that, his Ragan’s best finish in Atlanta has been 19th, which he has accomplished twice. In eight career starts here, half of them have ended with him outside of the top 30. Ragan has an average finish of almost 22nd since the race at Kentucky, which came after his win in Daytona.

Paul Menard - It’s going to be slim picking this week for the Yahoo! fantasy racers in the C-division. Menard has a 5th-place finish to his name at Atlanta, but other than that, he has just one additional top 10 at the 1.54-mile race track in eight other starts. In that race that Menard came home 5th, he had a driver rating of 88.7, which was good enough for just 12th-best in that race. He finished 29th at Charlotte and the last two “cookie cutter” races (Michigan and Kentucky) have ended with Paul in 26th and 24th position, respectively.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” just can’t seem to get a hold of this place. In four career starts, Joey’s best finish has been 22nd and he has yet to finish on the lead lap. His qualifying efforts aren’t much better here, either, as Logano’s best start at Atlanta was 29th in the spring race last season. You may have guessed it, but statistically this is his second-worst track on the schedule. He posted a 3rd-place finish at Charlotte this season, but Logano’s driver rating of his 71.5 in that race shows that he wasn’t even a top 20 car, which has been the type of intermediate driver he has been all season.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Atlanta Motor Speedway

I feel like a fool for picking Kyle Busch last week at Martinsville, when I had such obvious better choices in front of me (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin… the list goes on). I take no consolation in the fact that I called them “easy” or “cop-out” picks, because the fact is that I should have gone with one of them. I’m not making that mistake again this weekend.

Atlanta may be the best track for the 12 Chase drivers overall, because the drivers with the top eight finishing averages at Atlanta (excluding active drivers and those with under five starts) are all eligible for the championship. Only one of them, Kevin Harvick, has an average finish worse than 20.0, and he started his Atlanta career 1-for-1 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history. The bottom line is, since every Chaser is so good here, one has to examine momentum coming into the event before making any predictions. As has been most of the Chase, it’s all about who’s got the momentum.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Atlanta:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Nobody has more momentum going into the final four races of the season than Johnson, and everybody knows it. He won this race last year as part of a four-race winning streak that propelled him to his second consecutive championship. He’s also won four of the last eight races on the tour, including last week at Martinsville. He has the best average finish of active drivers at Atlanta, a 9.6. It’s getting old to write the same sorts of things about Johnson every week, so take this word of advice: Johnson has one of the best chances to win of anyone this weekend. (Duh.)

2. Greg Biffle: Da Biff had his second-best career finish at Martinsville last week, a lead-lap 12th. Given his abysmal track record there, the team’s spirits are high coming into Atlanta. He won the pole for this race last year and finished 4th here in the spring. In 2004 and 2005, when his team last performed at this level, his average finish was 7.0 in four starts. Another solid finish for Biffle seems to be in the cards, but will he continue to lose points to Johnson?

3. Jeff Burton: Usually 16.5 is a solid average finish at a track, but not when eight of your championship rivals rank ahead of you. Such is Burton’s predicament. He’s not helped by last week’s struggle, in which he wound up off the lead lap in 17th. A total of 13 top 10s and no DNFs at Atlanta since March 2003 are both good signs, but Burton also hasn’t led more than five laps in an Atlanta race since spring 1994, in his fifth career Sprint Cup start. A win is unlikely; a decent finish, however, isn’t out of the question.

4. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl would have won at Atlanta this spring if not for engine troubles. He’s only finished outside the top 10 at Atlanta twice, and although both of those were finishes of 40th or worse, Edwards is generally a pretty reliable bet here. Edwards seems poised to regain momentum after a 3rd place finish at Martinsville, and he certainly has a chance to capture win no. 7 of the season at Atlanta.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint has finished 6th in his past three starts at Atlanta, which makes him a reliable bet to finish well here again. He hasn’t finished any worse than 12th since Michigan, and although he hasn’t finished any better than 5th in that span of nine races, he’s been consistently towards the front. Don’t expect that to change for any reason.

6. Kevin Harvick: Here’s a shocker. Since his dramatic win in the spring of 2001 and a 3rd place finish that fall, Happy hasn’t finished in the top 5 at Atlanta. He didn’t even finish in the top 10 again until this spring. His average finish of 23.3 here is worst of all 12 Chase drivers. One reason for hope, however, is the fact that Harvick’s only finished outside the top 10 twice since the debacle at Indianapolis.

7. Jeff Gordon: It has been five years since Gordon’s won at Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a slouch here. Gordon’s average finish at Atlanta in his past six starts is a fantastic 6.0. Gordon’s led significant amounts of laps the past two weeks as well, and his desire to avoid his first winless season since 1993 is probably at its peak. Gordon could surprise this weekend – although, if you look at the team’s performance the past two weeks, it shouldn’t be a surprise at all.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke finished second here in the spring. Since the fall race in 2001, he’s only finished outside of the top 10 twice – a lead lap 17th in spring 2005 and a 30th in this race last year after losing oil pressure in the middle of the race. Most of Stewart’s momentum from Talladega is gone, however, after a 26th place run last week at Martinsville. Stewart should keep up his stout Atlanta record, but a win for the hometown sponsor might be a lot to ask.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug’s got a lot of momentum after having one of the strongest cars in the field at Martinsville. He has no chance at a championship, but he can certainly go out and steal some races from the contenders for the final month or so. His average finish of 8.7 in his past six starts here is certainly stout, and it would be higher if he didn’t crash late in this race last year and finish 25th. Important to note is that Earnhardt Jr. has four top 5s in those six starts, the best of which came at Atlanta in the spring. There’s no reason he can’t win this weekend.

10. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 6.2 with four top 10s in his last six starts here is one of the best in the business. His Chase has been terrible, with Martinsville last week one of the lone bright spots, but that gives the team a push to do well in these final four races. Although Kenseth’s never won at Atlanta and has only led 12 laps here in the past six years, he knows how to get to the finish without too many issues.

11. Denny Hamlin: Atlanta is one of the few tracks in the Chase where Hamlin has not consistently run well over his brief career. An 8th place finish in this race two years ago is the brightest spot on a record that includes four finishes of 19th or worse. It’s important to note that while Hamlin has only failed to complete six laps in his career at Atlanta, he’s only finished on the lead lap once. You can’t win a race if you can’t finish on the lead lap.

12. Kyle Busch: Shrub’s record at Atlanta looks like his record at a few other tracks: Save a fantastic performance this spring, in which he won after leading 173 of 325 laps, he hasn’t done much in the way of top 10 finishes. However, he did lead 77 laps in this race last year, when he finished 20th. He also has three 12th place finishes, and has only failed to complete seven laps here since becoming a full-time Cup driver.

A brief aside: I feel really bad for Busch. Kyle’s 2008 has been one of the greatest seasons in NASCAR history, and the Chase format has robbed him of a chance to win his first well-earned championship. In this age of NASCAR parity, winning 20 out of the 73 races he’s contested in the face of adversity is quite the accomplishment. One can only hope that we’ll someday see another season this dominant (from a driver other than Jimmie Johnson, anyway – this sort of year seems to come naturally to him).

So who would I pick to win this weekend (other than Jimmie Johnson)? I have to go with Jeff Gordon. He’s got the same equipment as Johnson, he’s had a similar sort of career here, and he desperately wants to avoid a goose egg in the win column for this year.

Atlanta Motor Speedway: Only the Top Teams Need Apply

G’wan home you guys. That’s what the stats are saying to all but the members of NASCAR’s 2008 royalty. That being the cars and drivers of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress. All others are mear pretenders to the Sprint Cup throne, at least for this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The top ten Loop Driver Ratings all belong to members of those four teams. DEI pilots, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr come in 11th and 12th with the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch right behind them. But the talent of the big four teams looks too tuned-in to AMS to be upset by those guys. It would be a huge surprise.

General Johnson’s March Through Georgia

Once again, Jimmy Johnson holds most of the Loop cards. There are 16 categories that make up the Loop Data Box Score. Jimmy has the top stat in 11 of those columns for Atlanta. Significantly Johnson holds the edge in Ave Position and Finish - 6.6 and 5.9. He has led more laps - 326 for 14.3 percent - and run the most Laps in the Top 15 - 2142 for 94.0 percent. His number one Driver Rating is 113.4. J J has the top season-to-date Driver Rating too, at 107.2.

The next four guys in the Atlanta Loop all have Driver Ratings of 102.3 or better. So Johnson won’t have the track to himself Sunday. Both Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr are past winners at AMS and have the second and third DRs - 104.4 and 103.6. Stewart has led 318 laps - 14.0 percent and just behind Johnson. Junior is right there with 299 laps led. Ave Finishes of 9.4 for Smoke and 10.9 for Junior are significantly behind Johnson.

The Challenge of the Roushketeers

The two Roush-Fenway drivers who most closely chase Jimmy Johnson in the Chase are Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards year-to-date Driver Rating is second only to Johnson at 105.4. His AMS rating is fourth at 102.8 and he has 2nd best 197 Fastest Laps Run. Carl is a two-time winner at Atlanta and is typically Roush strong on the fast mile-and-a-half tracks.

Greg Biffle has the fifth best DR - 102.3 - second best Ave Running Position and Laps in the Top 15 percentage - 9.8 and 83.4 percent - and series high 211 Fastest Laps Run. But Biffle is win-less at AMS as are Chasers Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth (Driver Ratings - 92.8 and 94.1). But all three drivers are very capable on intermediate tracks.

Jeff Gordon has only four races left in which to claim his first win of 2008. Gordon has an amazing string of 14 straight years with at least two wins. Time is running out but Atlanta could get him started on an end of season run. He has four wins at AMS, is the sixth rated driver in the Loop Stats. 

Twenty One Anyone?

Kyle Busch has twenty NASCAR major wins in 2008. It’s been awhile since he scored in the Cup Series, though he still has the third season-to-date Driver Rating at 104.2. Kyle was the winner the last time we went to Atlanta and AMS has produced plenty of sweeps over the years. Carl Edwards was the last to pull it off. But Kyle’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, claimed that the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars have an advantage on what Joe Gibbs Racing is fielding right now. I believe him.

The pick, this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jimmy Johnson can’t win them all, can he? - with a dark-horse shout out to DEI’s Regan Smith.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

When Jimmie Goes Down To Georgia

I’m shameless, really. When it comes to NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson has become Mr. October in nearly every sense. While he’ll never be Reggie Jackson, he has been incredible in the October Chase races, which have used Atlanta as the bookend. Every year this race focuses mainly on the Chase drivers and some of the great racing is missed. Maybe ABC will take a cue from that and show the race.

Chase drivers tend to mix in with other drivers at Atlanta, I’ve noticed. Tony Stewart won in 2006, when he also won at Kansas and just aimed for wins during the Chase. One of my favorite victory lane moments came here in that race, when Stewart climbed the fence to celebrate, mingled with the fans in the stands, then told the interviewer that the hat he was wearing came from a fan that gave it to him – one of those old hats that was torn from use, not for design. I felt compelled to share that right here. Equipment will be something to watch here as it really strains the engine. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards will all hope for something like that to happen.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Tony Stewart
2005 – Carl Edwards
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 9th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 42nd

I’ve started the last 2 race winners and they’ve delivered 2 wins. Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this! It’s so tempting to say Jimmie Johnson 12 times and be done with it, but…

JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON

Or go with Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. At this point, they’re still the ones in position to make a move if the #48 ends up having trouble.

I desperately want David Ragan to win a race this season. His spring race here wasn’t great, but he has had a lot of solid runs on the intermediate tracks. Plus, it makes for a great story in addition the Chase coverage. As a backup, I’ll take Brian Vickers.

“The Devil Went Down To Georgia” by the incomparable Charlie Daniels Band is the song for this week. I guess the golden fiddle is the Sprint Cup and the devil is either Mike Helton or Brian France as they deal the cards.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chasers Rule at Atlanta: Someone has to Suck

The top ten drivers in NASCAR Loop Data stats for the past seven Atlanta Motor Speedway Sprint Cup races are all 2008 Chase to the Cup qualifiers.

The top five all have Driver Ratings above 100. 100 is very good.

Jimmy Johnson leads ‘em out - surprise! - with a score of 113.4. Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle take it down to 102.3. The next five, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch span 96.6 to 88.5. There are no Atlanta slouches in the whole group.

Denny Hamlin has the 15th best Driver Rating and it’s still pretty close at 83.5. Kevin Harvick though, looks like the relative red-headed step child of the bunch. Harvick’s DR is 74.5, with an Ave Finish of 22.9.

Harvick and Hamlin are the only chasers with negative Passing Differentials. Harvick has led only 11 laps and Hamlin but 19 (though Jeff Burton has the lowest total of the chasers with three.) The top five have led a total of 1387 - 60.8 percent of all laps in the last seven races.

Surprisingly, Bobby Labonte, who at one time not long ago owed Atlanta Motor Speedway, has a Dr of only 65.7 and an Ave Finish of 27.1. I used to pick Labonte every time the Cuppers went to AMS. Worked out pretty good for a number of seasons. Ryan Newman has a Series best Ave Start of 6.1 and finish of 22.7 during the Loop era. So much for qualifying. And for a driver with the reputation of being fast on fast tracks that Michael Waltrip has, Mikey looks bad at AMS - DR of 61.0, one Lap Led and Ave Finish at 18.7.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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