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Roush Fenway Fords Enjoy November Sun in Homestead

While only winning the championship in 2004, the Roush Fenway Fords are dominant at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Greg Biffle won this race three years running and Matt Kenseth capped off the season one year ago with a win. To add to the fun for the Cat in the Hat, Carl Edwards has a very good record here and David Ragan has a top 10 in his first start here last year. For Roush, those are good odds.

The championship is obviously the big story at Homestead, but every year the margin of victory is getting larger. From the incredible drama of Kurt Busch’s 2004 season to Tony Stewart’s and Jimmie Johnson’s solid if unspectacular runs in the years following, the championship chase is still must-watch television and the redesigned Homestead track deserves a lot of the credit. This year almost certainly promises to see Johnson do what only Cale Yarborough has done in NASCAR’s top series unless something freakish happens to the normally unflappable #48 team.

Paging David Gilliland, remember where your engines come from… anyway, lets get a look at the numbers.

The winners:
2007 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Greg Biffle
2005 – Greg Biffle
2004 – Greg Biffle

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 7th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 9th
2005 – Tony Stewart – 15th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

Let’s see, let me find a Roush Fenway driver that has had the best season this and won on similar 1.5 mile tracks… oh yeah, if you’re not anticipating Carl Edwards leading nearly every lap and winning this thing Sunday night, I’ll take whatever odds there are for the race. Aside from Edwards, Biffle does have a track record of winning here and could easily do it again.

The two sleepers I’ve pegged for this race are Ragan and Jamie McMurray. Both drivers have performed admirably in the final stretch of the year. The season finale always produces surprises, it should be interesting to see what happens this year. Among the one-off entrants are Brad Keselowski and Mark Martin, and the end of A.J. Allmendinger’s run in the #10.

Finally, it’s been a pleasure to write this weekly column for On Pit Row. I want to thank Steve and Charlie for all of their hard work and I look forward to continuing my contributions to the Bench Racing blog. Journey provides the season finale with the classic karaoke song Don’t Stop Believin’. YouTube is your friend. This won’t be like the Sopranos finale when the music just stops before the

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Gentlemen, Roll Your Dice

Right. So Charlie says to Steve about 5 weeks ago, “We need a sucker to write up all the non-Chaser options for the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.” So Steve says, “Well, I owe Luke one, so let’s talk him into it. He’ll write anything, you know.”

So here we are. Suckered, er, convinced, into covering the 31 other possibilities for cracking the Top-10, and knocking Chasers into the lower points-per-position bracket.

Before we dig into what went down at Kansas, in terms of the Top-10 party, how about that finish? Sure, it wasn’t so hot until the last 50 or so laps, but from there on it was hammer down aggressiveness. All completed by a “Cole Trickle” style move for the win. Of course, that’s not the only time Cousin Carl has showed us an impression of Cole Trickle either. Anyone want to recall Michigan, and a little bit of screaming out of the pits?

On to the non-Chasers from Kansas.

Luke’s score from Kansas: 1 for 5. Let’s recap.

• Brian Vickers: 15th
• Mark Martin: 18th
• Beak: 19th
• Ryan Newman: 16th
• Elliott Sadler: 10th

At least we kept it in the top 20 this week.

It wasn’t all roses in the Top-10 however. It was only a 70% take for the Chasers.

Coming in with an 8th place showing was David Ragan, followed by A.J. Allmendinger in 9th, and the aforementioned Elliott Sadler closing out the Top-10.

If only Kasey Kahne had better studied Elliot’s setup, he wouldn’t have been 11 spots behind. Is it just me, or has the 9 team has been a bit behind the 8-ball since NASCAR reeled in the “crab walking” with the rear ends of the car? Maybe it’s just coincidence, but then again, maybe not.

So now we arrive at Talladega. Talk about a crapshoot. As we all know, anything can (and usually will) happen at Talladega. It’s the one track in the Chase that puts knots in Chasers stomachs, and boogeymen under their beds.

Here’s your three good options for ‘Dega, that not only have the chance of being in the Top-10 when the smoke clears, but also take an outside shot at the win:

Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and Kurt Busch.

OK, Vickers yet again. He’s performed pretty solid on the plate tracks, and his only win in the series came in this event in 2006.

David Ragan has surprisingly been a familiar face in the Top-10 for plate events as well this season, and the same goes for Kurt, despite an accident last July at Daytona.

When it comes to the plate tracks, just roll your dice. These tracks take more than stats into account, as one lone sneeze can kill a stat quicker than it takes to come out. That’s anywhere from 95 to 650 mph, according to Wikipedia, in case you were wondering.

That being the case, momentum on these types of tracks is important. Not just from recent weeks, but from recent plate races as well. And don’t let the qualifying results fool you. The chance of a Chaser hitting the pole is slim, as it’s an impound race and most teams in the Top-35 will be focusing solely on race runs. This is one place where you won’t hear teams talking about qualifying for track position, for once.

When the checkers fall, how will your dice roll have turned out? Will they be shaken up like the points could be?

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