• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Fantasy Racing
• Contact Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Aaron’s 499 from Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Jamie McMurray	21	9.63
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	3	12.50
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Paul Menard	12	16.13
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	37	17.38
Eric McClung	KFFL	David Ragan	39	12.50
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	23	11.50
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	David Ragan	39	15.13
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	39	13.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Brian Vickers	38	14.63
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Trevor Bayne	40	22.50
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Joey Logano	10	14.38
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	3	6.63
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Ragan	39	10.75
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	23	16.50
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	3	8.38
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	7	9.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	David Ragan	39	12.88
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	3	15.63
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	David Ragan	39	13.88

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	14.13
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kevin Harvick	5	14.25
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	5	14.75
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	14.25
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	2	13.38
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	18.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	13.13
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	18	17.88
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	9.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	6	13.88
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	10.63
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	5	9.75
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	13.13
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	35	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	2	7.25
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kevin Harvick	5	10.25
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kevin Harvick	5	8.38
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	11.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	12.50

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega - Aaron’s 499

If last week’s race at Texas Motor Speedway bored you, I hope you are ready for some intense action this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway. In March, NASCAR decided that the size of the restrictor plates for this race would be reduced to slow down the cars and try to prevent the two-car hookups that we saw during the Daytona 500. They also implemented changes for those reasons at Daytona, but it wasn’t very effective. I personally liked the two-car drafts, but that’s just me. There are two practice sessions this week and they are both scheduled for Friday afternoon, with qualifying being held on Saturday. There will be no practice between qualifying and the drop of the green flag on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Talladega…Clint Bowyer edged his teammate Kevin Harvick for the win at “Hallowdega“. Juan Montoya, David Reutimann, and Joey Logano rounded out the top five in that race. Average practice speeds were actually a little telling on who had a good car, and you can see for yourself by clicking here. In the spring race last season, Kevin Harvick won (even though he led only two laps) and was followed to the finish by Jamie McMurray, Juan Montoya, Denny Hamlin, and Mark Martin. The complete results of the April race at ‘Dega can be found by clicking here.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Throw every statistic out the window this weekend. When the series comes to these superspeedways, I put very little effort into my fantasy rosters because, quite simply, anybody can win these races. It doesn’t matter if a driver is fastest in practice, and it doesn’t matter if they start up front at Talladega. Only one thing matters here: being at the right place at the right time at the finish. No one finishes up front at this track consistently, so make a roster and go with it. If you have a good week, congratulations; if not, join the crowd.

I typically don’t like writing previews and predictions for plate tracks because they are so unpredictable, so I’m going to change the format a bit, but just for this week. Here goes nothing.

Top Ten Ranking Entering The Aaron’s 499 (And Then Some):

1. Kevin Harvick - When I was looking at the stat sheet this week, one number jumped out at me the most: zero. That’s how many DNFs Harvick has at Talladega in twenty starts. He’s finished on the lead lap in fourteen of those twenty races as well. This is astounding to me, and as long as the Richard Childress Racing engines hold up this weekend, I think Harvick could get his third victory of the season. His average career finish here is 14.8 and last year he won the spring race while ending up an extremely close 2nd in the fall.

2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Momentum, momentum, momentum. Junior hasn’t finished lower than 12th since the Daytona 500, and as long as he doesn’t cause a wreck (or get caught up in one) this weekend, he will continue that streak. With a little bit of luck, he may even end that winless streak. Dale Jr. has finished 1st or 2nd at Talladega eight times in his career and won four straight races here from late 2001 through 2003. He’s becoming risky at the plate tracks lately, but he has led at least one lap in all but 2 of his 22 starts at ‘Dega and has had the best average driver rating at this track over the past two years.

3. Kurt Busch - If they can stay out of trouble, the Penske Racing duo of Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski should have a good day at Talladega on Sunday. Kurt hooked up with drafting partner Regan Smith in Daytona and got a top five finish, and that could very well happen again. He has a knack for missing the big wreck–just three DNFs in twenty starts–and posted seven straight top 10s here from 2004 to 2007 (not an easy task). Kurt has finished 8th and 6th in the past two spring races at Talladega.

4. Juan Montoya - There are just two drivers that have posted top 20s in each of the last four races at Talladega, and Montoya is one of them. He’s been pretty consistent here, with just two finishes outside of the top 20 in eight starts, and finished third in both races at this track in 2010. He also finished 6th in the Daytona 500 back in February. He’s led at least one lap in every start at Talladega since his rookie year, so you know Juan knows how to get to the front here.

5. Clint Bowyer - It’s a good week to load up on the RCR cars–just hope their engines last. Bowyer is the most recent winner at Talladega and his average finish over the past seven races here has been 12th. Surprisingly, though, he’s only led in three of his ten starts here, but that doesn’t worry me too much. As long as he doesn’t run into any problems on Sunday (Bowyer has four finishes of 35th or worse) he should be a lock for a top ten.

6. Kyle Busch - Nobody has led more laps at Talldega over the past four races here than Rowdy Busch (with 88). The next closest to that number is Jamie McMurray with 63. The problem with picking Busch, though, is that he doesn’t get the finishes he deserves here. He won at this track in 2008 but that is his only top five here in twelve career starts. His starts here since his win have given him finishes of 25th, 9th, 15th, 25th, and 15th, so at least he is a little consistent. Kyle finished 8th at Daytona earlier this year.

7. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac has just one top ten finish this season but is coming into a track where has has found success before. He won in the 2009 fall race here and crossed the finish line 2nd in the spring race last season. McMurray looked strong in Daytona last February but was down a cylinder and finished 17th that day. He has just six top 10s in seventeen starts here but has to be considered a threat whenever the series comes to the plate tracks.

8. Jeff Burton - Like I said before, as long as the RCR engines hold up, expect a good day from that group. Burton hasn’t had a top ten this season but I think that could change on Sunday. He’s posted two top 15s in the past three races (Fontana and Texas) and has three top 10s in his past five starts at Talladega. The #31 Chevrolet has also had the second-best average driver rating over the past two years at this giant track.

9. David Ragan - I told you to expect a top ten out of David last week in Texas and I’m telling you now to expect another this week in Talladega. He’s made eight starts at this track and owns three top six finishes and an average finish of 14.3. Ragan has just two finishes outside of the top 20 at this track, and one of those was a 21st. Don’t forgot, David almost won the Daytona 500 in February.

10. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski got his first Sprint Cup Series win at this track and has led at least one lap in every start he has made here. He had a slip up last spring at this track but finished 10th in the fall race, giving him three top 10 finishes in his four career starts here. His career average finish of 13.3 is actually tied for best in the series (counting drivers who have made at least four starts at this track).

The “Others” That Could Just As Easily Get A Top Ten:

Joey Logano - The other aforementioned driver with a 13.3 career average finish is young Joey. Like Keselowski, Logano has three top tens in four starts and has led in every attempt he has made at this track. Will the Joe Gibbs Racing engines hold up this week, though?

Brian Vickers - Vickers won here in 2006 by wrecking his then-teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., but a win is a win. He has three top 13 finishes in his past five starts at Talladega.

Whoever Is Driving The #09 Car - As I’m writing this, I can’t find an entry list for the race this weekend, so I’m not sure who will be in this car. However, don’t overlook them this week. Bill Elliott finished 12th in the Daytona 500 with this Chevrolet and Mike Bliss got a top ten in the spring race here last season in this car.

Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl actually has the best average finish at restrictor plate tracks over the past two years, but the success hasn’t exactly found him at Talladega. Edwards’ last top ten at this track came in 2006 but he finished 2nd in the Daytona 500, so there is some hope to break that streak on Sunday.

Greg Biffle - “The Biff” actually has the 2nd-best average finish at Talladega over the past two years with 11.8. He’s the other driver that hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in those four races. The Fords have looked good all season (especially at Daytona) and I don’t think that will change this weekend.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has the 5th-best average driver rating over the past two years at this track but has had his share of problems that has brought down his average finish. He’s made ten starts here and has led at least one lap in every single one of them, though, so you know he knows how to get to the front. Hamlin finished 4th and 9th at Talladega in 2010.

Regan Smith - There are many C-list drivers that could be valuable this week, you just have to pick the right one. Smith was super fast in Daytona and got a 7th-place finish to show for it. He finished 12th in the fall race here last season, and that is also his career best finish here.

Paul Menard - With the way his season is going, you should expect Menard to finish better than his 25th-place average finish at this track. He got a top ten in Daytona in February and posted a 2nd-place finish here in 2008 while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

Bobby Labonte - Don’t forget who finished 4th in the Daytona 500. Labonte’s most recent top ten at Talladega came in 2009 while driving for under-funded (in my opinion) TRG Motorsports. If he can get a top ten with them, he can surely pull one off with JTG Daugherty Racing. If he’s in the right place at the right time like he was in February, you know never know.

Trevor Bayne - You didn’t think I was going to leave this kid off of my preview, did you? With as fast as his car was in Daytona, I expect drivers to be lining up to draft with him this weekend. If Bayne can stay out of the wrecks, a top fifteen would be highly likely (at least).

These Drivers Can’t Even Find Luck At Talladega:

A.J. Allmendinger - David Gilliland and Robby Gordon have better average driver ratings at ‘Dega than The Dinger does, so stay away from the #43 Ford this weekend. His best finish during his career at this track has been 19th and all of his other starts have ended with mid-thirties results.

Mark Martin - I’ve been burned by Martin for most of this season, but that will soon come to an end. I don’t like how this team is racing at all and I plan on avoiding him until they can find some consistency and run well. He has Junior’s old crew chief, so he may have a good run at Talladega, but he’s too risky for me–even at this track.

Marcos Ambrose - He finished 4th in his first start at this track but since then (three starts) he hasn’t finished better than 34th. Ambrose ended up 37th in the Daytona 500 this year.

My normal format will return next week, but if you like this format, it will be back for the next plate race in July. These races are so unpredictable that they are impossible to predict, but I will still put up my post-happy hour predictions on ifantasyrace.com on Saturday. Again, don’t put too much time into your fantasy rosters this week because history really doesn’t matter much here. Drivers can get an awesome finish just by being in the right place at the right time, even if they don’t have a great car. Finally, if you’re not a member at NASCAR Nation, be sure to sign up.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	31	10.44
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	16	9.0
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	14.11
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jeff Gordon	22	13.78
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	17.44
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	12.22
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	9.33
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	11	17.11
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	12.78
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	36	15.33
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	31	12.78
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	31	18.56
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	15.11
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	17.44
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	No Pick	44	15.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	8	12.56
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	8	10.33
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	14.78
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Greg Biffle	17	12.78
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	17.22

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Aaron’s 400 from Talladega

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	3	17.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	16	8.89
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	2	16.33
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	11	9.67
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	11	11.56
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Brad Kezelowski Tony Stewart	34 16	12.1 9.33
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	16	8.44
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Tony Stewart	16	8.11
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	16	8.89
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	21	11.00
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Brian Vickers	29	10.56
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	David Ragan	6	9.89
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	35	16.44
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	35	19.22
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	3	10.22
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	16	14.78
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Michael Waltrip	39	24.33
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray	2	9.44

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Aaron’s 499 from Talladega

After the big wreck in Texas, the vehicular carnage will likely spill into Talladega Superspeedway with the return of restrictor plate racing. Join us Thursday at 7PM ET for the Fantasy NASCAR Live Chat.

Chasing the pole at Talladega Superspeedway

1. Juan Pablo Montoya… Won the pole last year at Talladega.
2. Sam Hornish, Jr…. Started fourth last year at Talladega— has started third and second for the last two races.
3. Greg Biffle… Started second last year at Talladega— started third last week at Texas Motor Speedway.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Won 5/06 race at Talladega, has led at least one lap in 14 of 16 career starts. Four Top 10s in the last six starts at Talladega. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Six-time winner (’07 sweep, 5/05, 4/04, 4/00, 7/96) at Talladega. No Top 10s since ‘07, has led at least one lap in 27 of 34 career starts. Y!-A2
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five-time winner (10/04, 4/03, ‘02 sweep, 11/01) at Talladega. Had led at least two laps in 18 of 20 career starts at Talladega. Finished second and 11th last year. Runner-up at Daytona. Y!-B1
4. Greg Biffle… Last year at Talladega: seventh, fourth– first two Top 10s in 14 career starts. Finished third at Daytona. Y!-A3
5. Kyle Busch… Won 4/08 race at Talladega. Average running position of 13th or better in three straight starts at Talladega. Y!-A4
6. Kurt Busch… Twelve Top 10 finishes in 18 career starts at Talladega, only one since ‘08.
7. Matt Kenseth… No Top 10s at Talladega since ‘06, two Top 20s since. Average running position of 13th or better in three straight starts at Talladega. Y!-B2
8. Kevin Harvick… Only one Top 20 at Talladega since ‘08. Average Running Position of 10th in 11/09 race. Finished seventh at Daytona. Y!-B3
9. Carl Edwards… DNF due to crash to two of the last three starts at Talladega, finished 14th in 11/09 race.
10. Clint Bowyer… Has finished 12th or better in four of the last five starts at Talladega. Finished fourth at Daytona. Y!-B4
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Has led at least one lap in four straight starts at Talladega, only one Top 10.
12. Ryan Newman… Last three April races at Talladega: third, eighth, ninth. Y!-B5
13. Tony Stewart… Won 10/08 race at Talladega. Last year at Talladega: 23rd, 35th.
14. Jeff Burton… ‘08 at Talladega: 12th, fourth. Last year: 10th, fifth. Has led at least one lap in six of the last seven starts at Talladega. Y!-B6
15. Joey Logano… Last year at Talladega: ninth, third. Y!-B7
16. Denny Hamlin… Last year at Talladega: 22nd, DNF (engine)
17. Mark Martin… Two-time winner (5/97, 4/95) at Talladega. DNF due to crash in both ‘09 races at Talladega– first starts there since ‘06.
18. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Won 11/09 race at Talladega, won this year’s Daytona 500. Y!-B8
19. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. Won 4/09 race at Talladega, finished eighth in November.
20. Kasey Kahne… Finished second in 11/09 race at Talladega, second Top 15 since ‘07.
21. Paul Menard… Strong value play. ‘08 at Talladega: 14th, second. Last year: 13th, DNF (crash) Y!-C1
22. Scott Speed… Last year at Talladega: fifth, DNF (crash). Finished 19th at Daytona. Y!-C2
23. Elliott Sadler… Weak value play. Had led at least one lap in 14 straight starts at Talladega, two Top 10s in the last three starts.
24. David Ragan… Weak value play. ‘08 finishes at Talladega: fourth, third. Last year: 12th, 17th.
25. Brian Vickers… Won 10/06 race at Talladega. Finished eighth and 13th last year. Led at least two laps in seven of the last eight starts at Talladega.
26. Marcos Ambrose… Last year at Talladega: fourth, 34th– average running position of 18th, 16th.
27. Martin Truex Jr…. DNF due to crash in four straight starts at Talladega.
28. David Reutimann… Finished 26th in both ‘09 races at Talladega.
29. A.J. Allmendinger… Average finish of 32.7 in three career starts at Talladega. Y!-C3
30. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 23.4 in five career starts at Talladega. Y!-C4
31. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Average finish of 17.2 in five career starts at Talladega, no starts in ‘09.
32. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 36.3 in three career start at Talladega. Finished 37th at Daytona.
33. Robby Gordon… ‘08 at Talladega: 11th, eighth. Last year: two DNFs due to crash
34. Bobby Labonte… Won 4/98 race at Talladega. DNF (crash), 10th-place finish last year.
35. Joe Nemechek… Last three starts at Talladega: 11th, 14th, DNF (crash)
36. Michael Waltrip… Won 9/03 race at Talladega. Finished seventh in 11/09 race at Talladega, first Top 15 since ‘07.
37. Max Papis… Last year at Talladega: 18th, 29th.
38. Robert Robertson Jr…. Started 41st, finished 18th in 11/09 race at Talladega, first career Cup start.
39. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Talladega.
40. Aric Almirola… Finished a career-best 13th at Talladega in 10/08 race, no Cup starts in ‘09.
41. Johnny Sauter… No Cup starts at Talladega since ‘07. Three DNQs this season.
42. David Stremme… DNQs in two straight races.
43. Jeff Fuller… No career Cup starts at Talladega– no career Cup starts since ‘05.
44. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
45. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Talladega since ‘06.
46. Terry Cook… No career Cup start at Talladega. Six DNQs this season.

Copyright © 2012 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!