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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Wonderful Pistachios 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	4	10.65
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Denny Hamlin	9	15.27
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Clint Bowyer	22	17.38
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	29	15.35
Eric McClung	KFFL	A J Allmendinger	11	15.42
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	22	14.58
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Clint Bowyer	22	14.96
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	11	13.62
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	26.23
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	4	20.88
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	22	17.23
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	10.88
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	11	14.92
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Clint Bowyer	22	15.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	22	14.27
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	22	11.81
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Denny Hamlin	9	14.31
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	A J Allmendinger	11	16.04
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	11	14.23

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Wonderful Pistachios 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Kyle Busch	6	13.81
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	6	13.92
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	3	12.88
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	31	12.38
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kyle Busch	6	12.96
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	9	15.38
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	6	12.73
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	15.23
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	25.77
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	12.54
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	6	11.73
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	9	15.00
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	31	12.12
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	6	11.12
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	31	12.69
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kyle Busch	6	12.54
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kyle Busch	6	9.38
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	6	12.15
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch	6	14.00

Scouting Report: Richmond

How to make a good fantasy pick for Richmond

1) Look at past Richmond races. The series last visited Richmond in April and due to its nature of being a skill track the results of past races should be taken very seriously. Don’t look back anymore then a few years though. My absolute cut off line would be the first Richmond COT race.

2) It’s also important to look at recent results at similar tracks. Similar tracks to Richmond are New Hampshire and Phoenix. Bristol and Martinsville are short tracks but there not similar Richmond. Back in the old car days in 2005 after Kurt Busch won Mark Martin was very excited. Not because of his “Salute to you tour” wrapping up but because he would be using Kurt Busch’s chassis the following week at New Hampshire.

3) Qualifying matters at Richmond. I’m not a race car mechanic but I do watch the races. I believe qualifying setups are not that much different than race setups (at this type of track).

4) I rank practice fourth in terms how you should go about making an informed fantasy pick this week. Both Richmond practices will be run during the middle of the day and both are before qualifying. (Weekend Schedule of events)

Drivers to watch at Richmond

Kyle Busch – In the last five Richmond races Kyle Busch has three wins and has finished in the top five every race. In these five races he has led 514 laps and has had success in every meaningful loop data category (2nd place average finish, 4th place average mid race running position, 5th place average running position, 125.9 driver rating). His success at Richmond isn’t just a recent thing. In his thirteen races here he’s only finished outside the top five twice. His 4.9 average finish puts him in nearly a league of his own. In April Kyle Busch won, led more than half the race (235 laps), and had a stellar driver rating (143.1).

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a serious competitor every time NASCAR visits his home track. Denny Hamlin needs a solid race at Richmond so there’s high probability he won’t go all out for the win. Hamlin has the second best average finish in the series at Richmond (7.5) and he’s won the last two regular season finales. In the spring race this year he finished second, led 38 laps and he was the only driver who ran the entire race inside the top fifteen.

Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon used to be an unusable fantasy driver at Richmond. Bad things used to happen to him all the time. Earlier this year he finished 39th because he was involved in a wreck. At the midpoint of the race he was in first place and in my judgment he had a top three car. Before his wreck his Yahoo! race chart was very similar to Denny Hamlin’s. Since 2007 Gordon has finished in the top twelve every race with the exception of this springs race.

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is either a hero or a zero at Richmond. He has a few middle ground finishes but not many. Johnson has three wins but seven finishes of 20th or worse. The positives about Johnson are that he’s been finding his Chase form in recent weeks and he’s finished 11th or better in the last four races here. Earlier this year Johnson started 30th and finished 8th.

Ryan Newman – Richmond is a Ryan Newman track. He’s always been a natural here and on other similar tracks throughout his career. Newman won in 2003 and finished second in his first two starts at this short track. At New Hampshire this year Newman took the checkered flag and at Richmond’s other similar track Phoenix Newman visited victory lane there last year. You can pencil Newman in for a good finish.

To see my full rankings at Richmond check out my Wonderful Pistachios 400 Fantasy Preview

VegasInsider.com odds to win at Richmond

Kyle Busch 9/2, Denny Hamlin 6/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Greg Biffle 12/1, Matt Kenseth 12/1, Brad Keselowski 14/1, Kurt Busch 16/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Jimmie Johnson 3)Jeff Gordon 4)Kyle Busch 5)Martin Truex Jr. 6)Ryan Newman 7)Matt Kenseth 8)AJ Allmendinger 9)Carl Edwards 10)Kevin Harvick

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center

Richmond 5 Year Driver Averages

Past Pole Winners / Past Race Winners

Season To Date Loop Data Book

Short Track Averages (Similar)

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Richmond 2 - Wonderful Pistachios 400

As I’m sure you’ve heard many times by now, this weekend’s race at Richmond International Raceway is the cut-off of NASCAR’s “regular season” before the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins. Although I personally do not think that there will be a change in the twelve drivers currently in the Chase field, three drivers (Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, and Denny Hamlin) still aren’t locked in. The way I see it, it would take something crazy happening on Saturday night for one of those three not to make it, which I guess is possible with the way this 2011 season has been going. This race will be the second visit to Richmond for the series this year and although I find the Wonderful Pistachios commercials very annoying, Saturday night’s Wonderful Pistachios 400 at this 0.75-mile track should be a fun race to watch.

During The Last Race At Richmond…Earlier this year in May, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin combined to lead 273 of the 400 laps and finished 1-2 despite both drivers starting the race outside of the top 10 (Busch in 20th and Hamlin in 11th). Kasey Kahne wheeled his Toyota home him 3rd place with David Ragan and Carl Edwards rounding out the top five. Full results of that race can be found by clicking here.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Wonderful Pistachios 400:

1. Kyle Busch - It would be quicker for me to tell you reasons not to pick Rowdy Busch this week simply because there basically aren’t any. He has made thirteen starts at Richmond International Raceway and has amassed eleven top 5s and visited victory lane three times. Also, Busch’s average finish here is 4.9, which is simply incredible. Of Kyle’s four victories this season, two have them have came after he had a bad race the week before. I wouldn’t bet against seeing that #18 Toyota in victory lane once again Saturday night.

2. Jeff Gordon - As I said in my Preview last weekend, Gordon’s hot streak is being overshadowed recently by Brad Keselowski’s. However, in my mind, Gordon’s is more impressive. This team hasn’t finished a race in a position worse than 13th since mid-June and the #24 Chevrolet has looked fantastic for two weeks in a row and probably should have back-to-back wins. At Richmond, JG has twenty-three top 10s in thirty-seven career starts and from 2007 to 2010 had a streak of seven straight top 10s at this track. In May, Gordon had a solid top 10 car before getting spun and finishing 39th.

3. Jimmie Johnson - It’s almost Chase time and this is when the #48 team really buckles down (as you know by now). Jimmie’s record at Richmond isn’t stellar, but he has three wins in his nineteen career starts here and four straight top 11 finishes. At the race in May earlier this year, Johnson started deep in the back (30th) but drove up and finished a solid 8th. This team is hungry for a win to get some more bonus points to start the Chase with and they’ve been really close for the last month and a half, with five-straight top 10 finishes (and four of them being top 5s).

4. Denny Hamlin - This team has top 10s in the last two weeks and this is a track that Denny Hamlin has really found success at. His average finish of 7.5 is bested only by Kyle Busch and Hamlin has led the second-most amount of laps (1,188) of anyone in the series in just eleven starts. Jeff Gordon has led the most laps (1,406) in thirty-seven starts. Denny has never finished worse than 24th at Richmond and that is his only finish outside of the top 15 in his career here. In the last four races at this track, Hamlin has finished 1st or 2nd three times.

5. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” has been a solid top 5 driver at many flat track races this year (Phoenix in February, New Hampshire in July–where he won, and Pocono in August) and I don’t see why he won’t have the potential to finish there on Saturday night to get some momentum heading into the Chase. Newman has made nineteen career starts at this 0.75-mile race track and has seventeen top 20s to his name, including eleven top 10s and one win, which came back in 2003. He has the seventh-best average driver rating of all drivers in the past five Richmond races.

6. Brad Keselowski - All signs–and by signs I mean history–point to leaving BK off of your roster this weekend, but you could have said the same thing for the past month at mostly every track. Keselowski has made four career starts at Richmond and has started in the top 10 in all of them, but his best finish here is 14th and he has two finishes outside of the top 30. You can’t go against a driver when he is this hot, and until this Blue Deuce team cools down, Brad Keselowski will be a very common name on my fantasy rosters every weekend.

7. Kevin Harvick - I was getting worried about this team going into Atlanta last weekend and avoided Harvick like the plague (dumb move on my part), but after the impressive performance in the ATL, and the fact that Harvick has a pretty good record at Richmond, you won’t find me telling you to avoid him this weekend. “Happy” visited victory lane here in 2006 and in the last eleven races at this 0.75-mile race track, he has nine top 10s and a 12th-place effort on his resume. Harvick’s average finish here is right around 12th and he has just three finishes outside of the top 20 in twenty-one career starts.

8. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl stumbled a bit in July and August but the past two races have shown me that he’s well on his way to being a force week in and week out (like earlier this season) very soon. At Richmond, Edwards has never finished better than 5th and his average finish here is a middle-of-the-road 16.1. However, he’s on a streak of three-straight top 10s here and two of those were 5ths. Carl has just one top 10 on the flat tracks this year–so watch him carefully in practice–but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him notch a fourth-straight on this 0.75-mile track Saturday night.

9. Tony Stewart - Boy, how a good run changes your mind about your team! “Smoke” was all smiles after his 3rd-place finish at Atlanta, and hopefully–for him and his team’s sake–that momentum carries into Richmond International Raceway this weekend. Stewart has three wins at this 0.75-mile race track and sixteen top 10s in twenty-five career starts. He has struggled a bit here lately, though, with just one top 10 in the his last four visits to this track. This team has been good on flat tracks all season, though, so I expect Stewart’s luck to change at Richmond on Saturday night.

10. Clint Bowyer - With his Chase chances pretty much ruined on Tuesday in Atlanta, it will be interesting to see which Clint Bowyer will show up in Richmond this weekend: one that will be trying his hardest to grab a victory, or one that is pissed off about his season and “don’t care” whether or not the team gets his car fixed? I guess we’ll find out. If it’s the former, a solid top 10 should be expected out of Bowyer: he has eleven starts at Richmond and six of them have ended there. If it’s the latter, though, I’m not sure what to expect. However, one re-assuring thing about picking the #33 this weekend is that Clint has never finished worse than 18th here.

11. A.J. Allmendinger - I didn’t notice until now that The Dinger has been performing very well for the last month. At Watkins Glen he finished 8th and followed that up with an 11th-place showing at Michigan. After that, at Bristol, Allmendinger brought his Ford home in 12th, and last Tuesday he ended up 10th at Atlanta. It took A.J. a while to get a hold of this track, but in the last two races at Richmond he 7th and 8th-place efforts, and his driver averages in those races back up the finishes. Unless he really disappoints in practice, I would pencil Allmendinger in for a finish between 10th and 14th.

12. Kurt Busch - I’m being a little conservative in ranking Kurt Busch this week. If this team (and driver) are solid and don’t make any mistakes, I think the Double Deuce is capable of a top 5. If not, I think they will struggle to finish in the top 15. Kurt has one victory at Richmond, which came back in 2005, but in twenty-one career starts here, he has just six top 10s. The last three races here have ended with Busch in 22nd, 18th, and 18th. At the flat tracks this season the #22 Dodge has been pretty much a top 10 car every time.

13. Kasey Kahne - Who else fell into the trap of picking Kasey Kahne last week at Richmond because he started on the pole? I’m still kicking myself for that. However, in fantasy racing, you have to move on quickly and forget about the past. Kasey has the potential to get a solid top 10 and maybe a top 5 on Saturday night–like he did in May, where he finished 3rd after starting 4th–or he could disappoint you majorly, like last season’s fall Richmond race, where he started 10th and finished 29th (and many races this season). Kahne won from the pole here in 2005 and is really only worth the risk if he starts in the top 5. Still, though, it’s risky. Kasey finished 6th at both Phoenix and New Hampshire earlier this year.

14. Matt Kenseth - If Kenseth was running a little bit better, I would go against his history at Richmond and rank him in the top 10. However, that’s not that case. Don’t get me wrong, three straight top 10s are great, but at Michigan, Bristol, and Atlanta, most people predicted better finishes than just a top 10. Matt has made twenty-three career starts at Richmond International Raceway and has one victory (back in 2002) and nine top 10 finishes. His career average finish here is his car number (17th) and in three of the last five races here, Kenseth has finished either 13th or 14th. I see that happening again on Saturday night.

15. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” has never led a lap at Richmond in his five career starts here, but he has completed 1,999 of the 2,000 laps ran and has never finished worse than 19th. Logano started 9th and finished 11th here and May and in his race last season he finished a solid 4th, despite having just the 9th-best driver rating during the race. Going into this weekend, I think Joey has the potential to finish near his average at this track, which is 12.8.

Those To Avoid Entering The Wonderful Pistachios 400:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior has been a teens driver for pretty much the last two months, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend in Richmond. His average finish here is 14.3 but in his last five starts here, Junior hasn’t finished better than 19th. You don’t win any fantasy leagues by picking those drivers. He’ll do enough to secure his spot in the chase, but don’t expect much more out of NASCAR’s poster child this weekend (although I would love to hear the excuses from Junior Nation if he somehow misses the Chase).

David Reutimann - Reutty’s best finish in the last seven Sprint Cup races has been 18th and at Richmond his average finish is 20.7. David posted a top 10 finish here in 2008 but other than that has been a later-teens driver at best.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Just like any other track, Truex has found some success (two top 10s) at Richmond, but other than that, his career here has been average at best. Martin’s average finish here is 23.8, and even though he has had some good runs recently, I fully expect Truex to continue his up-then-down ways soon enough. You won’t find him on my rosters this weekend.

Greg Biffle - Just like this #16 hasn’t tasted a top 10 since early August this year, The Biff hasn’t had a top 10 finish at Richmond in his last nine starts–and I don’t expect him to suddenly change his ways this weekend. He had a streak of five top 10s here from 2004 to 2006, but other than that Biffle has been a mid-teens driver at best when the series stops at Richmond.

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Crown Royal Hansen 400 at Richmond

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		A J Allmendinger	7	9.33
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Denny Hamlin	2	11.33
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Denny Hamlin	2	14.56
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	15.67
Eric McClung	KFFL	Denny Hamlin	2	11.33
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	2	10.44
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	2	13.67
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	11.78
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Denny Hamlin	2	13.22
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	23	22.56
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	39	17.11
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	39	10.22
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	9.78
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	2	14.89
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	39	11.78
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	2	8.22
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jeff Gordon	39	15.78
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	39	18.22
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	2	12.56

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Crown Royal-Hansen 400 at Richmond

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Kyle Busch	1	12.67
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	1	12.78
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	8	14.00
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	12.78
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kyle Busch	1	12.00
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch	1	16.11
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	1	11.78
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	16.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kyle Busch	1	8.56
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	12.44
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	19	11.56
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	8.78
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	19	13.78
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	1	13.22
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	32	7.78
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kyle Busch	1	9.22
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kyle Busch	1	7.56
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	1	10.11
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch	1	11.22

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Richmond - Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

Now that we’ve gone a week without Sprint Cup Series action, the boys are back for some Saturday night racing at Richmond International Raceway. The race at this 0.75-mile track will be the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400 presented by Crown Royal. The former won Crown Royal’s “Your Name Here 400″ program, which allows people to submit their candidates that they feel are most deserving for the honor. Matthew Hansen is a marine and the award will be for his brother, Daniel, who was also a marine and recently passed away.

This week’s race will be ran on Saturday night (don’t forget to set your fantasy picks on time) and 400 laps are scheduled to be run, equaling 300 miles. Two practice sessions are scheduled to be held on Friday afternoon with qualifying later that night. Next week will be another Saturday night race at Darlington Raceway. The series will be back at Richmond International Raceway in September for the final race of NASCAR’s “regular season.”

During The Last Race At Richmond…Denny Hamlin led 251 of the 400 laps ran en route to his sixth win of the season. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Marcos Ambrose rounded out the top five that night. If you were wondering what the correlation between average practice speed and results were that night, click here. In the spring race at this track last season, Kyle Busch started from the pole and stayed there all night, leading 226 laps before taking the checkered flag ahead of Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards. The only drivers to post top ten finishes in both Richmond races in 2010 were: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, and Jimmie Johnson. Busch was the only one of those to finish in the top five in both races.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Once again, no practice will be held after qualifying, so I’m not sure how important those speeds will be. Qualifying will be decently important this week, as none of the top four qualifiers in either race last season finished worse than 15th. Kyle Busch pretty much owns this track, so I wouldn’t recommend going against him this week.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

1. Kyle Busch - If you somehow believe that “Rowdy” won’t finish in the top five this weekend, I’d love to hear your argument. He’s finished every single lap ran in the races that he has started at this track and in those twelve starts, he has ten top 5s–which is good for an average finish of 5.3. Busch’s worst finish at Richmond is 20th and last year he finished 1st and 2nd at this track. Love him or hate him, Kyle Busch is going to be one of the best picks this weekend.

2. Clint Bowyer - Clint has finished 2nd in the past two races this season (why not go for three?) and is on a streak of four top 10s after his less-than-stellar start to the season. Statistically, Richmond is Bowyer’s best track, where he owns an average finish of 9.8 and one win. That is his only top five at this track but he one finish outside of the top 12 in his ten career starts here, and that was an 18th. Like Kyle Busch, Clint has finished every lap that has been ran in his career at this track, and his average driver rating of 101.7 over the past four races here is good for fourth-best in the series.

3. Denny Hamlin - The only reason I put Bowyer ahead of Hamlin is because of how the #11 team’s season is going. Luck hasn’t been on his side much, but that could easily change this weekend. Denny has made ten starts at Richmond and has two wins and an average finish of 8th. He’s led 1,150 laps in those ten races, which is over 28 percent of the laps ran. Hamlin’s worst finish at this track came in 2008 when he finished 24th, but he led 381 laps that day and a flat tire and penalty gave him the poor finish. Unless he runs into more bad luck (which is very possible), expect a good run from Hamlin on Saturday.

4. Jeff Gordon - This ranking will probably end up being too high for Gordon once it gets closer to race day, but you can’t ignore Gordon’s recent success at this track. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th since 2006 and half of those eight races were top fives. Jeff has 36 starts at Richmond with 23 top tens to his name and two wins. I don’t like how Gordon has ran this season, so I will be cautious with picking him, but you can make up your own opinion on him.

5. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is generally a good pick at short tracks and this week is no exception. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009, Newman has finished 4th, 10th, 8th, and 11th at Richmond and earlier this season, he has finished 5th at Phoenix and 10th at Bristol (both tracks are 1-mile or less). Ryan has started eighteen races at Richmond and owns an average finish of 11.4 and one win (in the 2003 season). He has also finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his career at this track.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This will be Junior’s best chance to snap his winless streak until the series visits Michigan International Speedway in June. Little E has an average finish of around 14th at this track in his 23 career starts and has visited victory lane three times in Richmond. He hasn’t found much success here lately, though, with a best finish of just 21st in the past four races. I expect that to change, though, because Earnhardt Jr. seems to be for real this season: he hasn’t finished worse than 12th since the Daytona 500.

7. Juan Montoya - It took a while for Montoya to find success at Richmond, but he has three top 10s in his past four starts at the track. He’s been a little hit-or-miss this season, though, so make sure he has a good car before picking him. Montoya has the 7th-best average driver rating over the past two years at this track and finished 4th at Martinsville (the most recent short track race).

8. Jimmie Johnson - The #48 Chevrolet is either good here or really bad, and I never like going against any team after a win (even if it was at a restrictor-plate track). Johnson has won here three times in his 18 career starts, but also has eight finishes outside of the top 20. Statistically, this is The Champ’s second-worst track, with an average finish of 16.9. He has finished in the top eleven in four of his past five starts here, though, and I don’t think it will be four of six after this weekend.

9. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races at Richmond and has finished in the top 12 in twelve of the last thirteen. His average career finish at this track is 12th, which makes it his fourth-best on the circuit. He won here in 2006, but has just five top 5s to his name at Richmond (compared to thirteen top 10s) in his twenty starts. Harvick’s finishes at the tracks 1-mile or less this season (Phoenix, Bristol, and Martinsville) have been: 4th, 6th, and 1st.

10. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl isn’t stellar here by any means, but he has gotten some good finishes recently at Richmond. Edwards’ career average finish at this track is 16.9 (statistically his fourth-worst) but he has two top 10s in a row here and has finished in the top 15 in five of his last six starts. This season Carl has an average finish of 8.3, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, a top ten isn’t out of the question.

11. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has struggled at Richmond recently, but when you look at his history here it’s hard to go against him. He has three wins at Richmond (and four 2nd-place finishes) in his 24 career starts, and while he hasn’t had a top ten here since May 2009, Tony has finished outside of the top 20 at this track just four times. Stewart hasn’t a top ten this season since early March, so he doesn’t have much momentum, but he’s pretty much a lock for a top 15 and will get a top 10 if he has a good car.

12. Kurt Busch - Busch’s average finish of 17.8 at Richmond is nothing to be excited about, but he won here in 2005 and has finished worse than 18th just once since 2006. The “Double Deuce” started off the season fast, and while the #22 team aren’t having stellar runs as of late, they are being consistent–with a worst finish of 18th.

13. Matt Kenseth - Up until Talladega, Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. were the only two drivers to finish in the top 12 in every race since Daytona. Obviously, Junior’s streak is still alive, but I think Kenseth will start another streak this week. He’s finished in the top 14 in three of his past four starts at Richmond and won here in 2002. Matt hasn’t earned a top ten since 2007 at this track, so don’t expect that, but a top fifteen is well within reach for the #17 Ford on Saturday night.

14. Jeff Burton - I’m going to wait until Burton at least gets a top ten before I even start recommending him. His average finish at Richmond has been 14.4 over his 33 career starts and Jeff has won one race here: back in 1998. Burton has three top 10s in his past five starts at this track, and while I don’t think he will finish there this weekend, he could get a top fifteen.

15. Joey Logano - Speaking of top tens, “Sliced Bread” got his first of the season in Talladega and will look to ride that small wave of momentum into Richmond. He’s found success at this track in his Sprint Cup career, with a worst finish of 19th in his four career starts, and he got a 4th-place finish last fall after starting 6th. I thought he had the best car at the end of the race last fall, so maybe that will translate into a good run on Saturday.

Underdogs Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

Marcos Ambrose - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ambrose got his third top ten of the season on Saturday night. He finished 9th in 5th in the races at Richmond in 2010 and recorded finishes of 11th and 22nd in his rookie season. Statistically, this is Marcos’ second-best track on the circuit.

Brad Keselowski - Kes has always qualified well here, with top ten efforts in each of his three starts at this track, and he had some decent race runs last season at Richmond, with finishes of 14th and 15th. Watch to see how his car is in ten-lap average before forming your roster around him

David Reutimann - Reutty will be a risky pick as always this weekend because he is so hit-or-miss. He usually has an awesome car or is just decent and disappoints his fantasy owners. Reutimann got a top ten at Richmond in 2008 and finished 15th and 19th in the races held here last season after starting 2nd and 5th, respectively.

Brian Vickers - Vickers has two poles here in his twelve starts and two top tens as well, although one of them came in a different race. He finished 15th and 7th in the 2009 races at Richmond and posted a 20th-place finish in the spring 2010 race before blood clots ended Vickers’ season early.

Those To Avoid Entering The Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400:

A.J. Allmendinger - This Richard Petty Motorsports driver could have a good run this weekend, but one run doesn’t make someone a good racer at a track. The ‘Dinger ended up 8th in the fall race last season after finishing 17th in the spring race. But was that top ten a fluke? His career average finish here is 25.8.

Kasey Kahne - Kahne won at Richmond in 2005 but his average career finish here is 19.0 and he hasn’t had a top ten since early 2008. There are much better weeks to use Kahne.

David Ragan - Last week at Talladega was the week to use Ragan (and I was just as disappointed as everyone else when he went behind the wall). He finished 3rd here in 2007 but that is Ragan’s only finish above 17th in his eight starts at this track.

Regan Smith - He may get you some qualifying bonus points in Yahoo!, but don’t expect a good race out of Smith this week (as usual). His best finish here is 21st and his average finish in his five starts at this track is 27.8.

Be sure to check out NASCAR Nation and follow me on Twitter for last minute fantasy advice.

Scouting Report: Richmond

How to make a good fantasy pick for Richmond

1) Look at past Richmond races. There’s plenty of Richmond stats for you to pour over. Don’t look back anymore then a few years. My absolute cut off line would be the first Richmond COT race.

2) It’s also important to look at recent results at similar tracks. Similar tracks to Richmond are New Hampshire and Phoenix. Bristol and Martinsville are also short tracks but there not similar Richmond.

3) Qualifying matters at Richmond. I’m not a race car mechanic but I do watch the races. I believe qualifying setups are not that much different than race setups. Richmond is also an impound race so it will matter even more.

4) I rank practice fourth in terms how you should go about making an informed fantasy pick this week.  Both Richmond practices will be run during the middle of the day and both are before qualifying.

Ten Drivers to Watch:

1) Kyle Busch - In the last four Richmond races Kyle Busch has two wins, one second place finish and one fifth place finish

2) Denny Hamlin – My long standing Denny Hamlin rule of thumb is… “If it’s short or flat pick Hamlin”.

3) Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s finished in the top ten at Richmond in all but one race since 2005. Last spring Harvick finished 3rd to Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon.

4) Jeff Gordon – Kyle’s main competitor last spring and he won at Phoenix just a few months ago.

5) Ryan Newman – He’s truly a natural Richmond racer. In his first two starts here he finished second. In sixteen races at Richmond Newman’s only finished outside the top 15 four times.

6) Clint Bowyer – When Dale Jr. and Kyle Busch parted in 2008 he visited victory lane. Last fall he won at New Hampshire (similar track).

7) Jimmie Johnson – Either a hero or a zero. Been racing like a hero lately.

8 ) Carl Edwards – He’s been good everywhere lately and last spring he finished fifth.

9 ) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – This is his best traditional short track. If he’s going to win a race soon now’s his best chance until July.

10) Tony Stewart – Smoke hasn’t been on fire lately at Richmond. In his last three starts he’s finished 16th, 17th and 23rd. Before that three race span he finished in the top four in four consecutive races.Tony Stewart was a contender at Phoenix in February.

TheSpread.com Odds to win:

Carl Edwards 6/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Denny Hamlin 8/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Clint Bowyer 15/1, Matt Kenseth 15/1, Kurt Busch 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Air Guard 400 from Richmond

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Carl Edwards	10	16.42
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	2	10.77
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	2	10.38
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	10	12.69
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	2	14.42
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	1	12.31
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	1	9.50
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	2	13.73
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Denny Hamlin	1	14.85
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	2	11.62
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	2	9.88
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	12	16.12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Denny Hamlin	1	12.81
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	2	13.15
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	14.19
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	9	12.04
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch	2	12.35
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	2	11.50
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch	2	16.73

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Air Guard 400 from Richmond

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	20	14.77
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	17	12.96
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Martin Truex jr	22	20.92
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	11	10.69
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	20	14.77
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Brad KeselowskiDale Earnhardt jr	1534	13.6514.19
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	11	14.00
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	David Reutimann	19	10.35
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Ryan Newman	11	11.46
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Ryan Newman	11	12.50
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Mark Martin	20	13.65
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Ryan Newman	11	13.58
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	11	13.62
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	7	18.69
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	7	11.88
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Ryan Newman	11	15.15
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	20	19.50
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Mark Martin	20	10.85

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