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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

November 18, 2009

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.

  • Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
  • Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
  • Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.

Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami

  1. Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ‘06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
  2. Ryan Newman… Starting second in ‘05 and ‘07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ‘06 and ‘08 when he started 16th and 29th.
  3. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ‘07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to  qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

  • Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
  • Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
  1. Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ‘03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
  2. Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ‘03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ‘06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
  3. Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
  4. Kurt Busch… Won in ‘02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ‘06 and ‘08, runner-up in ‘07. Y!-B1
  5. Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
  6. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ‘00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ‘03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
  7. Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
  8. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
  9. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
  10. Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
  11. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
  12. Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ‘07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
  13. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
  14. Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
  15. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
  16. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
  17. Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ‘03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
  18. Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
  19. Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
  20. Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ‘07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
  21. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
  22. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
  23. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
  24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ‘03.
  25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
  26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
  27. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
  28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ‘01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
  29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
  30. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
  31. Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
  32. Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
  33. David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, did not start last year.
  34. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
  35. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
  36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
  37. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ‘03.
  38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
  39. Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
  40. Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ‘06 and ‘07.
  41. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
  42. Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
  43. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
  44. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
  45. Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
  46. Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ‘03.
  47. Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ‘03.
  48. Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ‘07 Nationwide race.

Written by Eric McClung · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy Racing, Fantasy racing leagues, Homestead-Miami Speedway, NASCAR, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment 

NASCAR Power Rankings: Dover

May 27, 2009

Dover

Change from last week

Who's Up

 Change from last week

Who's Down

Biggest Gain This Week:

Kyle Busch: 4th to 2nd

Biggest Drop This Week:

Jeff Burton: 8th to 11th
New This Week:
  • David Reutimann
 Dropped Out This Week:
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 1st

Jeff Gordon- Had an up and down day at Lowes

The 24 started at the front of the pack but they fell back very quickly at Lowes because of their ill handling racecar. Pit strategy is what saved their day. Expect a rebound for Gordon at Dover where he has a COT average finish of 8th.
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 2nd

Kyle Busch- All bad luck since 200 win talk began

Ever since Kyle started talking about 200 career NASCAR wins look at what's happened to him at Darlington and Lowes in both the Nationwide Series and the Sprint Cup Series. The runs have been good but not the deserved results.


NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 3rd

Mark Martin- Pit penalty in short race = problem

The series veteran had an early pit road mistake but the shortened race just didn't allow enough time for him to overcome the problem. If the race went the scheduled distance I think he would have.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 4th

Tony Stewart- Looking forward to Dover

Tony was a 10th place car at best at Lowes and he never really challenged for anything. If the 14 truly wants to contend for the championship they need to be much better in the fall race.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 5th

Jimmie Johnson- Not the quite Power of Pride Car

If Lowes was still bumpy (blame Humpy) then it would still be Jimmie Johnson's house. Dover is also a good track for Johnson where he started his career there 2-0 in his rookie year.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 6th

Ryan Newman- Is he really back?????

Did you know Newman has scored the most points over the last 6 races? So is he back? I say let's wait until he has some strong runs on the typical Intermediates first (not Darlington or Dover).

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 7th

Kurt Busch- Only front runner with problems

Kurt had a tough day at Lowes and finished 34th. Last fall at Dover he also finished 34th. Dover hasn't been friendly to the elder Busch because in COT races his best finish is 20th and his average finish is 31.25!!!!
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 8th

Greg Biffle- Most recent Dover winner

Biffle wants to leave Lowes behind in his rearview mirror because Dover is perhaps his best track. The last race he finished outside the top 10 at Dover was back in 2005. His average finish in COT races at Dover is 3rd.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 9th

Matt Kenseth- Good Dover pick

Matt Kenseth now has his first consecutive back to back top ten finishes (10th both races) since his Daytona and California victories earlier this year. Did you know that Matt Kenseth made his Cup debut at Dover in 1998 and finished sixth.
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 10th

Denny Hamlin- Pocono is coming up

Hamlin has the 4th best average running position (10.3) in 2009, but he still needs to improve on the Intermediate tracks. He has the short tracks and flat tracks mastered.
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 11th

Jeff Burton- Best RCR car

Burton may be the best RCR car right now but is that an honor? RCR appears to have fallen behind technologically to the competition because as a whole the RCR Intermediate track program is not on par with the competition.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 12th

David Reutimann- First win in the rain

David Reutimann won his first career race for MWR in the rain Monday at Lowes. My question now is why didn't anyone else ahead of him try the same strategy?

*** The Lowes Power Rankings is being skipped to keep all Onpitrow.com Fantasy Racing content in sync with one another.

Written by Ryan Rantz · Filed Under Dover International Speedway, Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy Racing, Lowe's Motor Speedway, NASCAR, NASCAR Power Rankings, On Pit Row, Richard Childress Racing | 2 Comments 

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

November 7, 2008

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Phoenix International Raceway, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment 

Texas Motor Speedway is the Alamo for Richard Childress’ Drivers

October 27, 2008

Anybody got a coon-skin helmet? Ask the guys who drive for Richard Childress Racing. They may feel about as besieged at Texas Motor Speedway as Davey Crockett and the Texicans did at the Alamo. Well, not quite, but you get the idea. With a total of only seven laps led in the last seven races between the lot of them, TMS hasn’t been good to Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer.

The RCR trio are the worst of the Chasers, Driver Rating-wise with scores that put them 13th-15th of the rated drivers. That, in itself isn’t all bad. Jeff Gordon is only 12th himself. But if you are looking to pick a winner for Texas, Gordon has at least led 194 laps.

Only Greg Biffle, of the Chase contenders - and after Atlanta, that is a very loose description - has run smaller percentage of Laps in the Top 15 - 46.6 - than the RCR boys, who range from 54.6 to 55.9 percent. But Biffle has 280 Laps Led.

Other drivers with poor stats at Texas include Ryan Newman - DR 67.3 and 5 Laps led with an Ave Finish of 22.3. Elliott Sadler - 68.1 DR and 23.1 Ave Finish and Brian Vickers with a Driver Rating of 62.9 and 25.1 for an Save Finish.

Be safe. Take Jimmy Johnson.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Richard Childress Racing, Texas Motor Speedway | Leave a Comment 

Dodge Going Away–Say It Ain’t So

October 25, 2008

Four races to go and driving a Chevy is as important at Atlanta as it has been everywhere else on the Chase circuit.

The strength of the Hendrick cars and Richard Childress Racing along with Joe Gibbs Racing tenure with the GM brand is the reason it is the brand to beat of late at Atlanta.  The question has been; is it the car or does Chevrolet just have the best drivers and teams?  It’s hard to argue that the three teams listed above along with Dale Earnhardt Inc. hasn’t been the best equipped over the past ten to fifteen years.

It is difficult to go too far back to try and gain any perspective on how brands do at particular tracks when everything has been changed by the “New Car”.  The car makes and models are literally just shells of what they once were.  It has been since the mid to late Eighties that definite car makes made a difference in their ability to affect the outcome of a race.

There was a time when car owners would change brands or models of car to gain an advantage over the competition.  Going back to the Sixties the Mercury Cyclones were the car of choice over the Ford Torino, later Talledaga, because its shape was more areodynamic.  The Monte Carlo Aero Coupe was the answer to the teams that found slipperier makes from Olds, Buick or Pontiac in the Ninties.

But, of course, the days of having all those makes of car are long gone.  Granted they were all GM makes, but having the long list of models made for more interesting chatter on Mondays.  It has only been a relative short few years since Dodge has returned to the Cup series.  Now with the talk of mergers on and off the race track, the future of Chrysler in racing is in doubt.  Any time you lose a brand, it isn’t a positive.  Dodge came back into the sport with high hopes and eventually re-introduced one of its most popular models, the Charger, because of it.

The new car has stripped all brand identity except for the decals and engine block.  It is really too bad that with that little difference in cars; more models, even in name only, aren’t represented.  It’s a pipe dream on my part, but since NASCAR didn’t listen to me when I asked for factory roof, hood, deck and glass, what the hell, I can dream can’t I?

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Steve Wronkowicz · Filed Under Chevrolet Racing, Dodge Motorsports, Ford Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment 

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

October 16, 2008

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Chevrolet Racing, Fantasy NASCAR, Hendrick Motorsports, Martinsville Speedway, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment 

Looks Like an Up Hill Week for Kevin Harvick at Lowes

October 6, 2008

This post may seem like we’re piling on Kevin Harvick when he’s down. It isn’t like the Happy One had a great day Sunday at Talladega. But we’re headed to Lowes Motor Speedway this week and this is the OnPitRow.com post that is supposed to tell you which drivers are likely to catch a Saturday night fever.  Harvick jumps out.

Harvick, and fellow Chasers Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth all wrecked out of the Talladega Wild Card 500.  That mixed up the Chase for the Sprint Cup for sure, but that’s not what this is about.

They all have a short week to get ready for the next round in their own backyards, Charlotte.  Home cookin’ may help, but it hasn’t done much for Harvick so far.  Happy has the worst Loop Stat Driver Rating of all the 2008 Chase contenders for Lowes - 66.4.  And it’s not a Chevy thing.  Jimmy Johnson is tops with 116.5.  Harvick hasn’t led a lap in the last seven races at Lowes. His average finish in those seven is 23.1.

And it isn’t just the North Carolina speedway.  Harvick hasn’t been good on intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, covering 75 possible starts on intermediates, Kevin has led the fewer laps than all but one driver to start all 75 - 159.  Johnson has led 2735.  Eight of the top 11 lap leaders on the cookie-cutters are ‘08 Chasers.  Number 11 is Junior with 908.  And we used to talk about Earnhardt Jr being weak on the mile-and-a-halfers.

Jeff Burton is just one spot better than Harvick in the laps led department. But Burton has two wins and 31 top tens on intermediates.  Harvick is winless.   The only 75 race starter with fewer lead laps than Harvick is Bobby Labonte.  But even Labonte’s Driver Rating is 81.2.

It just doesn’t look like Harvick will make a big move in the Chase at Lowes.  Labonte, Michael Waltrip and Robby Gordon aren’t very good bets either, but you likely already thought that.  I know I did.  But Kevin Harvick’s record on the intermediates surprised me.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Charlie Turner · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Lowe's Motor Speedway, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment 

I’d Rather Drive a Chevy at Lowes Motor Speedway

October 6, 2008

Week five of the Chase has taken place at Lowes Motor Speedway every year to mark the halfway point. The race has seen a Chaser win each time, and 3 of the 4 races have been won by Jimmie Johnson (twice) and Jeff Gordon. Breaking the Chevy streak was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Chevys have taken a majority of top 10 spots, and it’s no wonder because the dominant Chevy teams – Hendrick and Childress – have been represented well. On the Hendrick side, obviously Gordon, Johnson, and previous driver Kyle Busch have top finishes, but Childress drivers Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer haven’t been too shabby either. The wild card could be the Roush Fenway Fords, however. Their last big year was 2005, and they placed 3 cars in the top 5 in this race.

As far as the championship is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the track record, Johnson’s won this race in the years he failed to win the championship. He hasn’t won this race in 2 years, but won the championship in both. Go figure. I remember back in 2004 and Kurt Busch was involved in an early incident but came back for a top 5. The overarching theme of this race is that the title weighs heavily on the minds of the contenders.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Kasey Kahne
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson - 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson - 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart - 25th
2004 – Kurt Busch - 4th

Fantasy options – Obviously, the man to beat at this track is Johnson. 2 wins and a runner-up finish in the Chase, not to mention his record at the track in general. Another driver to watch out for is Jeff Burton. I’m thinking about starting Burton this week, because he seems to have the speed again in his cars to be a contender. Thirdly, Carl Edwards has yet to experience the same success here as he has in Atlanta and Texas. Could it finally come this year? I’m hoping, but I’m not certain.

Sleepers here are always tricky. Does Kahne count as a sleeper? He had one good month here in an otherwise forgettable 2008 season, and has won this race before. Brian Vickers could finally get it done at this race. He runs extremely well at LMS. Scott Speed, Brad Keselowski, and Bryan Clauson are all expected to make their debuts this week. Count on one of them, most likely Speed or Keselowski, to have a stronger run than expected.

Finally, the song for this week’s race comes courtesy of a personal favorite on my playlist right now, “Coming Home” by Alter Bridge. Check it out, I’m out until next week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Written by Matt Mercer · Filed Under Chevrolet Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, Lowe's Motor Speedway, NASCAR, Nascar Chase 2008, Richard Childress Racing | Leave a Comment