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Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Phoenix International Raceway

Sorry, guys. For some reason, I thought I posted my column last week, but when I looked for it here on the site, it was mysteriously not there. I picked the winner correctly, I called everybody but Jimmie Johnson irrelevant (oh, how wrong I was), and I even made reference to Tommy Tutone when I wrote about Denny Hamlin. So, of course, my best work goes for naught when I don’t actually end up putting it up for the world to see. (Then again, now I can recycle my “Denny, Denny, who can I turn to” next year.)

In other words, it looks like I had a massive brain fart. Or, as Jack Roush would suggest, I’ve had my “mulligan” for the Chase. Just read the best nine columns out of ten, right?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Phoenix:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Best average finish of every driver at Phoenix, incredible Chase, last guy to win here, blah, blah, blah. Johnson’s run last week, while not catastrophic, left the door open for Edwards. Then again, don’t be surprised if Jimmie comes through in the clutch. That’s what Team 48 does.

2. Carl Edwards: Carl’s average finish of 14.5 is negatively affected by the 42nd place he had at this race last year, when his engine let go in the first half of the race. That can’t happen again. Carl’s got a lot of momentum from the past two weeks, and he has a chance at winning four in a row and mimicking Johnson’s huge run at the end of last year. Given his record at Phoenix when things go right (5 top-10s), it’s definitely possible.

3. Greg Biffle: Da Biff is painfully average overall at Phoenix, with an average finish of 16.4, but the finishes themselves are often polarized. Biffle has two 2nd place finishes at the track, as well as two finished of 34th place or lower. The question is simply whether the team will have one of the former or the latter come race day. With the way the team’s been since the debacle at Talladega, look for the former.

4. Jeff Burton: Betcha didn’t know that JB’s got two wins here. It’s true - he won this race in 2000 and 2001. Betcha also had no idea that Burton’s worst finish at Phoenix in the past decade is 15th in fall 2005. His 11.1 average finish here is in the top five of all active drivers. There’s no reason he can’t pull off another decent finish.

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s only win at Phoenix was here in 2007, but he still has an average finish of 8.5. Here’s to hoping he wins this weekend, if only because winning at least once every year since 1994 is a huge accomplishment. His average finish of 8.5 is second only to Johnson.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer made his Cup debut at Phoenix, finishing 22nd in the spring of 2005. Since then, he’s only failed to complete eight laps at the track, and has two top-5s, including a 2nd place this spring. The team is a far cry from where they were at this time last year, but a 4th at Texas last week proves that they’re still capable of top finishes.

7. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t won at Phoenix since sweeping in 2006, but he’s also been a solid contender for the past few years. Since the spring of 2006, his average finish is an astounding 7.6 with four top-10s. Then again, Harvick’s only spent 23 laps at the front of the field all Chase, so don’t count on a momentum-based win.

8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 18.8 is due to an extreme polarization of finishes. When he’s good (a win in 2002, six top-10s), he’s good. When he’s bad (five finishes of 32nd or worse), he’s bad. Case in point: Kenseth led 93 laps to finish 3rd in this race last year, but finished 38th here this year in the spring. He’s a high-risk, high-reward pick, but given his last three finishes (average: 7.0), the reward may be there for the taking.

9. Tony Stewart: Stewart has been running at the finish all 13 times he’s started a Phoenix race. His average finish of 9.8 is tops among Toyota drivers, and he’s only finished worse than 18th once. Smoke wants to go out at Joe Gibbs Racing with a bang, and building on that impressive Phoenix resume would sure help. An interesting note: Stewart’s eight top-10s are as many as his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have combined for in the same amount of starts between them.

10. Kyle Busch: Cheers to Shrub regaining the final position at NASCAR’s end-of-season awards banquet - for now. Securing that seat, however, will require him to build on his somewhat stellar record at Phoenix. Busch has five top-10s in seven starts here, with the only exceptions coming in 2006. He’s led laps at the track before, and he’s been stellar in most of the past few races. There’s a chance that he might snag one more Cup win before the year is out.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: One point behind Busch for the final banquet spot, Junebug goes to a track where he has two wins, four top-5s, and six top-10s. He led 87 laps at Phoenix in the spring on the way to a 7th place finish. It’ll take another performance like that to bring him back into the top 10.

12. Denny Hamlin: I predict Hamlin will finish 3rd this weekend. Hey, when it’s happened three times in six starts at the track, it seems like a safe enough bet. For the record, his other finishes are 13th, 34th, and a 16th at this time last year.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Gordon’s due. Hendrick ought to do his best to give Gordon the best car on the track this weekend and keep that 14-year winning streak alive, even if it means making Johnson a bit more vulnerable for Homestead. Let’s make the title fight a real fight, boys.

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Thank You Jamie. CC: Cousin Carl

We’ll start this week with a quote from another famous Champion by the name of The Nature Boy, “Wooooooooooo!”

I’d like to thank Jamie Mac for so graciously contributing to the bills in the infield, with one of the strongest runs in his tenure at Roush. He was there all… damn… day. Hammer down, and had some of them crazy Chasers not played the gas card he’d have laid the smack down in Texas. Bottoms up, to that one.

I’d also like to thank ol’ Cousin Carl, for his performance on Saturday. He too helped offset a little adventure of full speed adrenaline at 180mph for 4 laps around the track. Courtesy of Team Texas, of course. Wow.

I’d also like to thank Ron Hornaday. Not only will my laptop carry a high resale value for just being a kick ass Mac, but now the (soon to be, you betcha) back to back Truck Champion adorns it for all to see. As Terrible Terry Tate once said, “Nice play baby!”

Martin Truex held himself in the Top-10 by the end, 6 places behind his starting spot.

Rounding out the Top-10 was none other than Beak. Congrats Reut, ya earned it.

So now we’re moving from Texas Twisters to those Arizona Rattlers out on the hill. Well, actually last weekend it was earthquakes (no kidding, folks), but that’s beside the point.

Looking back, Mark Martin and Martin Truex both ran strong here last spring. They were the only two in the Top-10 who are not currently in the Chase. And since we’re covering the other 31 drivers out there, we’ll carry on.

Jamie McMurray wasn’t too far out of the Top-10, and considering his current momentum he could sneak it in. That team has been pulling it together, and the results are finally showing. It was an interesting read from Marty Smith on this one earlier, check it out if you get a chance.

There were a few other surprises out there last spring as well. Juan Pablo, Bobby Labonte, and David Gilliland were all in the Top-16, Reutimann was 18th as well.

If you want momentum, bring in David Ragan, Jamie Mac and David Reutimann. From there, who knows. It’s Phoenix. Even being a quarter mile longer than Richmond, for some reason it’s always reminded me of Richmond after being flipped around to make the front the back and the back the front. Although the comparisons end there. Not to mention it’s a 500, but measured in kilometers? Never made a lick of sense to me, but hey, whatever. Drop the flag, get it on, and let’s go racing.

Oh and one more thing, be sure to thank your Office Linebacker as the season draws to a close.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Phoenix International Raceway: Kasey Kahne Kant

Most weeks, even though 2008 has not been a banner year for Kasey Kahne, his stats make him look like - at least - a dark-horse contender to win. With mile-and-a-half tracks comprising a majority of the Chase races, and Kahne being a relative stud on the intermediates (he swept the two Cup races at Lowes in May) Kasey has been a legit consideration most of the last eight weeks. But not this time.

PIR has not been good to Kahne. Eight races there with three top tens and three finishes of 31st or worse. Zero laps led, a 20th best Loop Driver Rating of 70.9 - compared to stat topper Jimmy Johnson at 118.0 - and an Ave Finish in the last seven races of 23.4. Kahne has run only 39.1 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

There is no other driver whom I look upon as a consistent contender, that looks as unlikely to win this race, this week. The Dodge teams don’t strike fear into anyone. Budweiser, I would think, must question their selection of the Gillette-Everham/Kasey Kahne choice as the replacement - as if - for Dale Earnhardt Jr and DEI/Chevy. 

The results this weekend from the Desert probably won’t help.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

It’s A Dry Heat–Edwards Closing In

Phoenix International Raceway was carved out of the foothills of the Estrella Mountains in 1964.

it was intended for open wheel racing.  Mario Andretti, A.J. IFoyt, Parnelli Jones and the Unsers soon came to love the one mile paved oval with the dogleg on the backstretch.  Phoenix’s tourism industry was just starting to grow and its Western-style hospitality was second to none.

It wasn’t until 1988, however, when NASCAR Sprint Cup Series racing came to PIR, that auto racing in Phoenix really became a major sporting attraction for the “Valley of the Sun.” New racing legends and legends-in-the-making like Davey Allison, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace and the rest of the NASCAR Sprint Cup stars found out firsthand what their open-wheel brethren had known for years: Phoenix International Raceway is truly a great place for racing, for drivers and fans alike.

Today, Phoenix  has a tradition that is unmatched in the world of racing. Armed with a rich history of many forms of racing, PIR now counts its two NASCAR weekends as hallmark events.  The annual fall weekend — now in its 21st year and includes races in all three major series and USAC — is one of the biggest events in the entire state.  A second date was added in 2005; giving teams a second spring visit to the desert.

This unique one mile track sports 11 degrees of banking in turns 1-2and 9 degrees in turns 3-4; while it’s
frontstretch has 3 degrees and 9 degrees on backstretch.

Ryan Newman holds the track qualifying record in his No. 12 Alltel Dodge at 26.499 seconds, or 135.854 mph, set in November of 2004.

Race winners seem to be able to double up on there wins.  Five times drivers have won twice in succession, but no one has ever won three in a row.  Davey Allison started the trend in 1991-92, followed by Jeff Burton in 2000-01and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 2003-04,  Kevin Harvick won both races in 2006 and Jimmy Johnson has won the last two and has the ability to be the first to do a triple.

If he can pull off the triple at Phoenix; it may power him to his triple championship as well.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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