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NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	1	8.15
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	3	8.50
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	4	9.60
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	1	10.32
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Greg Biffle	14	10.44
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Mark Martin	4	11.24
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	1	11.24
Eric Brewer		Kyle Busch	12	11.38
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Kurt Busch	6	11.65
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	4	11.85
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	1	12.12
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Mark Martin	4	12.44
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	4	12.59
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Mark Martin	4	12.88
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	4	13.09
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	12	16.88
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jimmie Johnson	1	18.35

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks. Thus far there has been a total of seven races on flat tracks. This gives fantasy owners a very clear idea on the top options for this weekend’s race at Phoenix International Raceway. I’ve created another NASCAR Fantasy Tool, 2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks. Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway all vary in length but their banking in the corners is similar and are all, of course, flat.

Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin each have two wins on flat tracks. Kyle Busch owns a victory and has three straight top-fives on flat tracks. Tony Stewart began the season with four top-fives on flat tracks but an average finish on 13.3 on the last three. Ryan Newman has three straight top-10s; Brian Vickers has three straight of 11 or better. Sam Hornish Jr. put together a streak of four top-10s but was a disaster in the other three.

Chasing the pole at Phoenix

1. Mark Martin… In April, Martin from the pole and has won a total of seven poles this season, one being Richmond. He started fourth just three weeks ago at Martinsville.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson won last year’s O’RAP 500 from the pole. The rest of Johnson’s starting numbers at Phoenix are decent: fifth and six in ‘07, seventh in 4/08 and he started 10th back in April.
3. Jeff Gordon… Gordon has started inside the top-10 for six of the seven flat track races this season. He has started inside the top-10 this season for 10 straight races.
4. Kurt Busch… Started third in April and in last year’s O’RAP 500. He has started inside the top-10 at Phoenix in seven of his last eight attempts.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Phoenix (4/09, ‘93). Average finish of 8.0 in four starts since ‘07. Best average finish (5.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Phoenix (’08 sweep, ‘07). Has never finished worse than 15th in 12 career starts– fourth or better in six straight, seventh or better in eight straight. Finished fourth in April. Tenth-best average finish (9.6) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A2
3. Denny Hamlin… Five finishes of six or better at Phoenix over the last six races, average finish of 6.0 in that span. Average finish of 4.0 last year. Finished sixth in April. Second-best average finish (5.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B1
4. Tony Stewart… Won at Phoenix in ‘99. Average finish of 18.0 last year, 3.0 in ‘07. Runner-up in April. Third-best average finish (7.4) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B2
5. Kurt Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05, runner-up in last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500- led 60 laps. Finished third in April. Fourth-best average finish (8.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B3
6. Jeff Gordon… Won at Phoenix in 4/07, finished 10th in 11/07 race. Finished 13th in last year’s April race, DNF (engine) in November. Fifth-best average finish (8.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Average finish of 11.9 at flat tracks this season, 3.0 in the last two. Y!-B4
8. Kyle Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05. Average finish of 10.0 since ‘07 (five races). Sixth-best average finish (9.0) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A4
9. Ryan Newman… DNF (engine), 34th-place finish last year. Finished 38th and fifth in ‘07. Finished 16th in April. Average finish of 11.3 at flat tracks this season. Y!-B5
10. Carl Edwards… Finished fourth at Phoenix in both races last year, ninth in April. Seven top-10s in 10 career starts.
11. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Finished fifth in April.
12. Brian Vickers… Only one top-10 (’05) at Phoenix in 10 career starts. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘06, 21.6 since (not counting crash last year). Y!-B7
13. Kasey Kahne… Has finished 13th at Phoenix in consecutive races, no top-10s since ‘06. Y!-B8
14. Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in last year’s April race, 12th in November. Average finish of 14.9 at flat tracks this season.
15. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’01, ‘00). Has not finished worse than 15th since ‘97 (17 races). Average finish of 7.5 last year, 11.0 in ‘07. 9.5 in ‘06.
16. Kevin Harvick… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’06 sweep). Average finish of 10.5 in ‘07-’08.
17. Matt Kenseth… Won at Phoenix in ‘02. Average finish of 4.0 in ‘07, 26.6 in the three races since.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner at Phoenix (’04, ‘03). Average finish of 6.5 last year. Finished 31st, ran 18th in April.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 16.0 at Phoenix in two career starts. Y!-C1
20. David Reutimann… Average finish of 21.5 at Phoenix last year. Started and finished a career-best eighth in April.
21. Joey Logano… Started 31st, finished 21st in April– first career start at Phoenix.
22. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Third in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished 23rd at Phoenix in both ‘07 races, 10.3 in the three races since. Finished third in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 11th in April.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 7.3 at Phoenix in three of the last four races, not counting a DNF (overheating) in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Average finish of 17.0 in seven career starts. Finished seventh in April.
25. Casey Mears… Zero top-10s at Phoenix in 11 career starts, 27.3 average finish.
26. Sam Hornish Jr…. Weak value play. Finished a career-best ninth at Phoenix in April, but had an average running position of 23rd. Average finish of 27.6 in three previous career starts. Y!-C3
27. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish of 14.3 at Phoenix from ‘07-’08. Y!-C4
28. AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 25.5 at Phoenix in two career starts.
29. David Ragan… Finished a career-best 10th at Phoenix in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 27th in the April race.
30. Reed Sorenson… Finished a career-best 12th at Phoenix in April. DNF (crash) and 31st-place finish last year. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07.
31. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 28.7 at Phoenix in three career starts.
32. Paul Menard… Zero top-20 finishes at Phoenix in five career starts, 23.4 average finish.
33. Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th at Phoenix in both races last year.
34. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.8 at Phoenix since ‘07 (five races).
35. Elliott Sadler… Only one top-10 (’02) at Phoenix in 15 career starts. Finished 11th in both ‘05 races, average finish of 31.1 in the seven races since.
36. Scott Speed… Average finish of 37.0 at Phoenix in two career starts.
37. John Andretti… Started 41st, finished 38th at Phoenix in April, first start since ‘04. Average finish of 12.0 in four CART Series races (’88-’92).
38. Brandon Ash… No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Average finish of 10.9 in seven career Truck Series West races (’98-’05).
39. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
40. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
41. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts.
42. David Gilliland… Possible start and park. Started 27th, finished 33rd at Phoenix in April.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. Started 29th, finished 34rd in April of last year– first career start at Phoenix.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Finished 41st at Phoenix in April.
45. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Finished 42nd at Phoenix in April.
46. Tony Raines… Likely start and park. Finished 43rd at Phoenix in April.

2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks - Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Below are 24 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish this season at four flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The four flat tracks vary in length but do feature similar banking. Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks: Richmond is a little shorter (0.75 miles) and banked 14 degrees; New Hampshire is a little longer (1.06 miles) and most recently, Martinsville which is much shorter (0.53 miles) both are banked 12 degrees. Phoenix is 1.00 miles and banked 11 degrees and held its first race in April, the eighth race of the season.

	MVILLE 1	PHX	Rich 1	NH 1	RICH 2	NH 2	MVILLE2	AVG
Mark Martin	7	1	5	14	4	1	8	5.7
Denny Hamlin	2	6	14	15	1	2	1	5.9
Tony Stewart	3	2	2	5	17	14	9	7.4
Kurt Busch	18	3	12	3	2	6	17	8.7
Jeff Gordon	4	25	8	2	3	15	5	8.9
Kyle Busch	24	17	1	7	5	5	4	9
Jimmie Johnson	1	4	36	9	11	4	2	9.6
Ryan Newman	6	16	4	29	10	7	7	11.3
Juan Pablo Montoya	12	24	10	12	19	3	3	11.9
Clint Bowyer	5	26	18	20	6	10	19	14.9
David Reutimann	20	8	28	4	20	12	16	15.4
Jamie McMurray	10	11	7	33	27	18	6	16.0
Jeff Burton	15	15	3	31	18	16	15	16.1
Greg Biffle	28	5	17	18	13	9	25	16.4
Joey Lagano	32	21	19	1	14	21	12	17.1
Casey Mears	21	20	9	11	30	13	18	17.4
Brian Vickers	33	19	15	35	7	11	11	18.7
Marcos Ambrose	14	14	11	23	22	20	27	18.7
Carl Edwards	26	10	26	19	15	17	20	19.0
Sam Hornish, Jr.	34	9	6	8	8	37	36	19.7
Matt Kenseth	23	27	13	22	25	23	14	21.0
Kasey Kahne	19	13	29	10	12	38	32	21.9
Kevin Harvick	11	30	34	34	9	32	10	22.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	8	31	27	13	21	35	29	23.4

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition Week 9

Texas

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Mark Martin: 3rd to 2nd	Biggest Drop This Week: Juan Pablo Montoya: 4th to 6th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 6 Wins, 22 Top Tens Jimmie Johnson has been Superman in the Chase this year but Sam "Kryptonite" Hornish Jr proved to us that Johnson isn't invincible. The only effect of the Johnson crash will be seen at Homestead when he's points racing for the fourth year in a row.

Rank: 2nd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 3 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 20 Top Tens Mark Martin got the job done at Texas. Martin didn't win or even lead a lap but he renewed his championships chances by finishing 4th. At Phoenix where Martin won earlier this year he needs to further reduce his points deficit to Johnson.

Rank: 3rd Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 2 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 23 Top Tens Jeff Gordon started on the pole at Texas but if I were to grade his race I would give him a D. Gordon needed a top five day at worst, and the 24 team had perhaps their worst intermediate track performance of the year.

Rank: 4th Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 5 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch - 2 Win, 19 Top Tens After the way the 2 car performed at Texas it's to bad Pat Tryson will be leaving this team soon. I know if I were a crew chief I wouldn't want to leave Kurt Busch for Martin Treux Jr.

Rank: 5th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 6 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 23 Top Tens Tony Stewart is a still a full race behind Johnson in the point standings. Their main goal this season was to make the Chase, but Talladega is what officially killed this teams chances.

Rank: 6th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 4 Change: -2 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens Montoya spent much of the Chase racing inside the top 5 but unfortunately it's starting to look inevitable that he won't finish there. I can't find any fault for a team that came virtually out of nowhere and was a legitimate threat.

Rank: 7th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 8 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 18 Top Tens Hamlin had a big day at Texas and moved up three positions up to 8th in the points. At Phoenix Hamlin should be able to lock himself inside the top 10 in points.

Rank: 8th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 9 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle - 10 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens Other then Kansas and Talladega I don't remember seeing Biffle at all in the Chase. Their performances haven't really been that great, but they have managed to avoid DNF's which is a key aspect of the Chase.

Rank: 9th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 7 Change: -2 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 14 Top Tens After a failing motor at Texas Kahne now is sitting tenth in the points only 41 points ahead of Carl Edwards. I don't expect much out of either of these drivers at Phoenix so Homestead will be the key as to who goes to Las Vegas.

Rank: 10th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 10 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens If Ryan Newman is going to finish inside the top ten this season then he must avoid his 22.9 average finish at Phoenix. Newman's only had 1 top ten at Phoenix since 2005.

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens Carl Edwards may have been the biggest loser at Texas. Now Carl sits 11th in the points after his Texas wreck. If Carl doesn't finish in the top ten then he can forget about recognition at the 2009 awards banquet in Las Vegas.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top Tens I think this team will be impacted tremendously in 2010 by their Chase disaster. Even at their very best they barely made the Chase. With Kenseth, Earnhardt Jr (yes him), and RCR teams improving forget Vickers chances of making the Chase next year.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table

This table designed primarily to help fantasy NASCAR owners with deciding on how to spend their remaining driver starts as we progress through the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The table ranks the 26 most relevant drivers by their average finish at the eight Chase tracks that held their first Cup event earlier in the season.

	Loudon	Dover	Fontana	Lowe’s	Martinsville	Talladega	Texas	Phoenix	AVG
Tony Stewart	5	2	8	19	3	23	4	2	8.25
Jimmie Johnson	9	1	9	13	1	30	2	4	8.63
Kurt Busch	3	5	5	34	18	6	8	3	10.25
Greg Biffle	18	3	4	20	28	7	3	5	11.00
David Reutimann	4	18	14	1	20	26	11	8	12.75
Ryan Newman	29	8	28	2	6	3	15	16	13.38
Carl Edwards	19	7	7	4	26	24	10	10	13.38
Matt Kenseth	22	4	1	10	23	17	5	27	13.63
Denny Hamlin	15	36	6	11	2	22	12	6	13.75
Jeff Gordon	2	26	2	14	4	37	1	25	13.88
Kasey Kahne	10	6	12	7	19	36	19	13	15.25
Kyle Busch	7	23	3	6	24	25	18	17	15.38
Juan Montoya	12	30	11	8	12	20	7	24	15.50
Mark Martin	14	10	40	17	7	43	6	1	17.25
Joey Logano	1	15	26	9	32	9	30	21	17.88
Brian Vickers	35	25	10	5	33	8	16	19	18.88
Jeff Burton	31	16	32	25	15	10	9	15	19.13
Sam Hornish Jr.	8	13	23	16	34	34	17	9	19.25
Casey Mears	11	9	24	33	21	16	21	20	19.38
Marcos Ambrose	23	20	22	26	14	4	41	14	20.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	13	12	39	40	8	2	20	31	20.63
Clint Bowyer	20	11	19	36	5	39	22	26	22.25
Jamie McMurray	33	14	16	21	10	42	38	11	23.13
Martin Truex Jr.	37	21	27	23	29	33	25	7	25.25
AJ Allmendinger	32	29	29	32	9	35	34	35	29.38
Kevin Harvick	34	17	38	41	11	38	27	30	29.50

New On Pit Row

We’re pretty excited about some new additions to OnPitRow.com and I haven’t done a very good job of getting the word out. So pay attention. My job depends on it.

We have added some stats for fantasy racing players. These NASCAR fantasy racing stats are almost to the point of overkill and won’t be for everyone. But if you want to dig deep into past performance of specific drivers and particular race track stats for fantasy racing, check out our - still developing - drivers pages. You can view - and download - a complete set of NASCAR Loop data stats for any driver in our One and Done fantasy NASCAR pool. More content will be added to those pages soon. Watch this space, as they say. Here is David Ragan’s page for example.

And we have track stats for NASCAR fantasy gamers too. Check out the Phoenix International Raceway page for 40 pages of NASCAR Loop stats on PIR alone. The Talladega Superspeedway page is available too. As with the drivers stat pages, we will be adding more fantasy racing stats and information soon.

On the video front, check out our Bench Racing TV page when you have a chance. We’re posting Mindy Monday’s latest Monday Morning Crew Chief video there each week along with any other cool stuff we find. The folks at Shell Gasolines sent us an early copy of Kevin Harvick’s Old west Showdown spoof, which is now all over the place. But when we get them, we’ll post them for you.

Finally, if you haven’t noticed yet, the ON PIT ROW radio show is now available On Demand. We are finally hosting our own archived shows right here at OnPitRow.com on the Listen Live page. For a long time, ON PIT ROW’s web home was at RaceTalkRadio and we will always value that relationship. But we’ve wanted to host our own from the time we first started OnPitRow.com.

Stay tuned ’cause there’s more to come but if there’s anything that you want to see or hear, let us know. Thanks for joining us On Pit Row.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Photo credit: Ring - or Round Girl Jen by BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Phoenix International Raceway

Sorry, guys. For some reason, I thought I posted my column last week, but when I looked for it here on the site, it was mysteriously not there. I picked the winner correctly, I called everybody but Jimmie Johnson irrelevant (oh, how wrong I was), and I even made reference to Tommy Tutone when I wrote about Denny Hamlin. So, of course, my best work goes for naught when I don’t actually end up putting it up for the world to see. (Then again, now I can recycle my “Denny, Denny, who can I turn to” next year.)

In other words, it looks like I had a massive brain fart. Or, as Jack Roush would suggest, I’ve had my “mulligan” for the Chase. Just read the best nine columns out of ten, right?

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Phoenix:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Best average finish of every driver at Phoenix, incredible Chase, last guy to win here, blah, blah, blah. Johnson’s run last week, while not catastrophic, left the door open for Edwards. Then again, don’t be surprised if Jimmie comes through in the clutch. That’s what Team 48 does.

2. Carl Edwards: Carl’s average finish of 14.5 is negatively affected by the 42nd place he had at this race last year, when his engine let go in the first half of the race. That can’t happen again. Carl’s got a lot of momentum from the past two weeks, and he has a chance at winning four in a row and mimicking Johnson’s huge run at the end of last year. Given his record at Phoenix when things go right (5 top-10s), it’s definitely possible.

3. Greg Biffle: Da Biff is painfully average overall at Phoenix, with an average finish of 16.4, but the finishes themselves are often polarized. Biffle has two 2nd place finishes at the track, as well as two finished of 34th place or lower. The question is simply whether the team will have one of the former or the latter come race day. With the way the team’s been since the debacle at Talladega, look for the former.

4. Jeff Burton: Betcha didn’t know that JB’s got two wins here. It’s true - he won this race in 2000 and 2001. Betcha also had no idea that Burton’s worst finish at Phoenix in the past decade is 15th in fall 2005. His 11.1 average finish here is in the top five of all active drivers. There’s no reason he can’t pull off another decent finish.

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s only win at Phoenix was here in 2007, but he still has an average finish of 8.5. Here’s to hoping he wins this weekend, if only because winning at least once every year since 1994 is a huge accomplishment. His average finish of 8.5 is second only to Johnson.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer made his Cup debut at Phoenix, finishing 22nd in the spring of 2005. Since then, he’s only failed to complete eight laps at the track, and has two top-5s, including a 2nd place this spring. The team is a far cry from where they were at this time last year, but a 4th at Texas last week proves that they’re still capable of top finishes.

7. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t won at Phoenix since sweeping in 2006, but he’s also been a solid contender for the past few years. Since the spring of 2006, his average finish is an astounding 7.6 with four top-10s. Then again, Harvick’s only spent 23 laps at the front of the field all Chase, so don’t count on a momentum-based win.

8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 18.8 is due to an extreme polarization of finishes. When he’s good (a win in 2002, six top-10s), he’s good. When he’s bad (five finishes of 32nd or worse), he’s bad. Case in point: Kenseth led 93 laps to finish 3rd in this race last year, but finished 38th here this year in the spring. He’s a high-risk, high-reward pick, but given his last three finishes (average: 7.0), the reward may be there for the taking.

9. Tony Stewart: Stewart has been running at the finish all 13 times he’s started a Phoenix race. His average finish of 9.8 is tops among Toyota drivers, and he’s only finished worse than 18th once. Smoke wants to go out at Joe Gibbs Racing with a bang, and building on that impressive Phoenix resume would sure help. An interesting note: Stewart’s eight top-10s are as many as his teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have combined for in the same amount of starts between them.

10. Kyle Busch: Cheers to Shrub regaining the final position at NASCAR’s end-of-season awards banquet - for now. Securing that seat, however, will require him to build on his somewhat stellar record at Phoenix. Busch has five top-10s in seven starts here, with the only exceptions coming in 2006. He’s led laps at the track before, and he’s been stellar in most of the past few races. There’s a chance that he might snag one more Cup win before the year is out.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: One point behind Busch for the final banquet spot, Junebug goes to a track where he has two wins, four top-5s, and six top-10s. He led 87 laps at Phoenix in the spring on the way to a 7th place finish. It’ll take another performance like that to bring him back into the top 10.

12. Denny Hamlin: I predict Hamlin will finish 3rd this weekend. Hey, when it’s happened three times in six starts at the track, it seems like a safe enough bet. For the record, his other finishes are 13th, 34th, and a 16th at this time last year.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Gordon’s due. Hendrick ought to do his best to give Gordon the best car on the track this weekend and keep that 14-year winning streak alive, even if it means making Johnson a bit more vulnerable for Homestead. Let’s make the title fight a real fight, boys.

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Thank You Jamie. CC: Cousin Carl

We’ll start this week with a quote from another famous Champion by the name of The Nature Boy, “Wooooooooooo!”

I’d like to thank Jamie Mac for so graciously contributing to the bills in the infield, with one of the strongest runs in his tenure at Roush. He was there all… damn… day. Hammer down, and had some of them crazy Chasers not played the gas card he’d have laid the smack down in Texas. Bottoms up, to that one.

I’d also like to thank ol’ Cousin Carl, for his performance on Saturday. He too helped offset a little adventure of full speed adrenaline at 180mph for 4 laps around the track. Courtesy of Team Texas, of course. Wow.

I’d also like to thank Ron Hornaday. Not only will my laptop carry a high resale value for just being a kick ass Mac, but now the (soon to be, you betcha) back to back Truck Champion adorns it for all to see. As Terrible Terry Tate once said, “Nice play baby!”

Martin Truex held himself in the Top-10 by the end, 6 places behind his starting spot.

Rounding out the Top-10 was none other than Beak. Congrats Reut, ya earned it.

So now we’re moving from Texas Twisters to those Arizona Rattlers out on the hill. Well, actually last weekend it was earthquakes (no kidding, folks), but that’s beside the point.

Looking back, Mark Martin and Martin Truex both ran strong here last spring. They were the only two in the Top-10 who are not currently in the Chase. And since we’re covering the other 31 drivers out there, we’ll carry on.

Jamie McMurray wasn’t too far out of the Top-10, and considering his current momentum he could sneak it in. That team has been pulling it together, and the results are finally showing. It was an interesting read from Marty Smith on this one earlier, check it out if you get a chance.

There were a few other surprises out there last spring as well. Juan Pablo, Bobby Labonte, and David Gilliland were all in the Top-16, Reutimann was 18th as well.

If you want momentum, bring in David Ragan, Jamie Mac and David Reutimann. From there, who knows. It’s Phoenix. Even being a quarter mile longer than Richmond, for some reason it’s always reminded me of Richmond after being flipped around to make the front the back and the back the front. Although the comparisons end there. Not to mention it’s a 500, but measured in kilometers? Never made a lick of sense to me, but hey, whatever. Drop the flag, get it on, and let’s go racing.

Oh and one more thing, be sure to thank your Office Linebacker as the season draws to a close.

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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