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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Kobalt Toos 500 at Phoenix

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Regan Smith	38	12.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	1	14.63
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	1	16.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Regan Smith	38	16.06
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kasey Kahne	1	14.86
Eric McGuire	free agent	Mark Martin	16	16.20
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	1	15.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	1	13.20
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	33	22.31
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	13	17.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	20	12.97
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Trues Jr	20	14.91
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	16	15.31
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	13	13.49
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	13	12.57
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kasey Kahne	1	13.57
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	1	15.69
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Clint Bowyer	10	14.43

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Kobalt Tools 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	12.37
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	3	13.09
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	14	12.66
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	13.54
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	2	13.51
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	2	14.77
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	14	13.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	19	15.54
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.74
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	12.83
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	14	14.17
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.43
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	11.43
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	12.66
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.26
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	9.77
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.11
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Tony Stewart	3	14.06

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 - Kobalt Tools 500

As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Scouting Report: Phoenix

How to make an informed pick for the Kobalt Tools 500:

1) Practice will be extremely important this week and luckily we get to see two practice sessions before qualifying (weekend schedule of events). This will not be your typical Phoenix race weekend. The track changed in such significant ways that solely going off past Phoenix information will get you lapped this weekend. In fantasy racing it’s always best to go off the most recent data and none will be more relevant then practice this weekend.

2) Qualifying and track position will be a must at the newly reconfigured Phoenix International Raceway. In all of the driver interviews I’ve seen about the new track surface they all sounded hesitant that a second groove didn’t exist yet. However Phoenix track officials have been hard at work and have been artificially laying down rubber on the track so come race time this might be a non issue (Pictures). On Saturday there will also be a Nationwide race so I think a second groove will come in.

3) Since the new Phoenix layout is substantially different I’m choosing to study Richmond as a good reference point for how to approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. I think the new layout looks a lot more like Richmond then it does the old Phoenix.

Drivers to watch in the Kobalt Tools 500:

Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th).

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor.

(NOTE: All of these drivers participated in the August tire test and they all participated in the October open test).

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last five races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Greg Biffle
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Jimmie Johnson

VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Tony Stewart 5/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Greg Biffle 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 12/1
• Kyle Busch 12/1
• Kevin Harvick 15/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Fresh Fit 500 from PIR

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	28	20.5
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	28	28.0
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	28	35.0
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	28	20.5
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	3	22.5
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	28	35.0
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	3	15.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	28	32.0
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.0
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	1	18.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	3	13.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	15.0
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	28	22.5
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	2	11.5
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	2	3.5
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	4.0
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	3	22.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	28	35.0
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	22.5

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Kevin Harvick	4	9.0
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	3	13.0
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	6	15.0
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	10	23.5
Eric McClung	KFFL	Juan Pablo Montoya	19	12.5
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.5
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Ryan Newman	5	14.0
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	19	14.5
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Ryan Newman	5	14.5
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Regan Smith	34	17.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	11	22.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.5
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	4.5
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	11	17.5
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.5
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	8.5
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	3	13.5
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	33	25.5
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	6.5

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500

Sunday will be the final time a race will be held at Phoenix International Raceway before its repaving and reconfiguration, which will begin after the Subway Fresh Fit 500 is completed. When the Sprint Cup series comes back here in November, drivers will find a wider front-stretch and a reconfigured dogleg turn. PIR President has stated, ”We are thrilled with the design. … This race has always been pretty pivotal in crowning our Sprint Cup champion, and in this case, the notes from the previous races are not going to be worth much. It’s going to be a whole new game.” On Sunday, though, you can expect familiar faces up front.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…Last November, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson were fighting for the championship with just two races to go. Carl Edwards started from the pole and stayed in the top five all day, getting the win and ending his 70-race winless streak. Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top five. Hamlin led the most laps that day but had to pit late for fuel, as did Juan Montoya when he was running 2nd.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Forget about last week. If you escaped Daytona with a solid week, good job. If most of your drivers wrecked, don’t worry: there’s a lot of people in that boat. Onto the next week. At Phoenix, make sure you pay attention to average practice speeds as well as who gets the pole. Only one driver outside of the top ten in average practice speeds last fall at Phoenix finished worse than 15th and two of the last three pole winners here have gone on to win the race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - There is no reason that “The Champ” shouldn’t be near the top of everyone’s lists going into the race this weekend; Jimmie is the best driver here and this is his best track (statistically). Johnson has led more laps here than anyone in the series–including Mark Martin (who has raced in 13 more races at Phoenix than his Hendrick Motorsports teammate). JJ has an astounding average finish of 4.93 here (over 15 career races) with a worst finish of 15th. Surprisingly, “Five-Time” has only one pole win here, though. You can still expect Chad Knaus to give Jimmie a good car, though. Since 2006, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 5th at Phoenix.

2. Carl Edwards - The Cup Series points leader is the most recent winner of this track and in the past three points-paying races (going back to last year) his finishes have been 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Over the past two years at Phoenix (four races), Cousin Carl hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has amassed three top tens. In his career, Edwards has 10 top tens in 13 races and an average finish of 11.9. In 2007, he won the pole and led 87 of the first 125 laps before his engine blew, giving him a finish of 42nd. There is no reason we shouldn’t see the 99 car up front again this week.

3. Mark Martin - First off, can you believe Mark came back from three laps down last week to get a top ten at Daytona? Me neither. Phoenix has been Martin’s second-best track over his career and he has finished outside of the top twenty just once in his 28 starts here (a DNF in 1988–his first start here). Since coming to Hendrick, Mark has had finishes of 1st, 4th, 4th, and 8th. Since 1989, Martin has completed all but one lap at Phoenix.

4. Jeff Gordon - Hendrick Motorsports teams are just pretty good at this flat track. You won’t see Gordon leading a bunch of laps (he has led in just one of his past seven starts here), but he has shown that he can get a solid finish. Gordon has 21 total top 20’s in his 24 career starts here, and 17 of those have been top tens. He also has the best average start in the Cup series at Phoenix.

5. Denny Hamlin - I’ve learned to keep Hamlin in my mind whenever the boys race at a flat track, and Phoenix has been a good track for him. As I stated before, Hamlin led the most laps last time at Phoenix but didn’t get the win because he had to hit pit road late so he didn’t run out of fuel. Denny has started eleven races in the Sprint Cup series at Phoenix, and has finished worse than 16th only twice. He has never won here, but Hamlin has finished 3rd four times at this track.

6. Kurt Busch - He didn’t accomplish the trifecta at Daytona, but Kurt Busch still left with a top five and a fourth-place points position. In his last five Phoenix starts, Busch has led laps in four of them (and earned top tens in those four races as well). He has only nine top tens in sixteen career starts here, but since 2008 it seems like Busch has figured this track out more and become more consistent. If he starts worse than 15th, though, I wouldn’t pick him (only one top ten in those five starts).

7. Jeff Burton - Burton’s last two finishes at Phoenix have been sub-par (19th and 25th), but he has still been very consistent here: since 1996 he has finished outside of the top 20 only once. Since 1998, Burton has finished on the lead lap in every races. You won’t see the 31 near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, but that hasn’t mattered over the years. With two wins at the track, Jeff definitely knows how to maneuver around this three-turn flat track.

8. Juan Montoya - If it wasn’t for a shortage of fuel, Montoya would be on a three-race streak of top tens at Phoenix. Last fall, while running 2nd, the 42 car had to pit under green to avoid running out of fuel. He ended up finishing a disappointing 16th. Juan has ended up in the top 20 in 75% of his starts at Phoenix International Raceway. In the April race in 2010, Montoya led 104 laps and came away with a top five.

9. Joey Logano - Sliced Bread’s first two starts at Phoenix yielded disappointing finishes (21st in both), but the young gun has gotten used to this track since then. Last year he got his first top ten here after starting sixth, and last fall Logano ended up 3rd. He has never led a lap here, but after this Sunday that could change.

10. Kyle Busch - Over the past four races at Phoenix, Rowdy has the third-best driver rating (behind Johnson and Martin). However, like at Daytona last week, he hasn’t been able to get the finish in those races. He hasn’t been terrible, but the finishes don’t match the driver rating. In the past four races, Kyle has finished 13th, 8th, 12th, and 17th. He has just two finishes outside of the top 20 in twelve career starts. Busch has won here before but usually finishes between 7th and 13th.

11. Greg Biffle - The Biff has been surprisingly consistent over the fast few years at Phoenix. He finihed 4th in the fall race last year after his sub-par 22nd in the spring race. Over the past eight races here, Biffle hasn’t finished worse than that 22nd last spring and has four top tens in those eight starts. He won’t run up front all day (he’s only led at least one lap in one of the past nine races) but you should expect him to finish on the lead lap.

12. Tony Stewart -Statistically, “Smoke” is the fifth-best driver at flat tracks with average finish of 11.4. At Phoenix, it isn’t much different as he has an average finish of 12th in 18 career starts. In his first start here, he won after starting 11th and went on to record seven top tens in the next eleven races at Phoenix. I will tell you to watch Stewart closely, though: his previous three finishes have been 17th, 23rd, and 25th.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - If Truex is going to live up to the type that everyone has placed on him this year, he’s going to need to do good at his best tracks. Phoenix is his third best track statistically with an average finish of 15.6 in ten career starts. In the November 2008 race, he finished dead last after an overheating problem, but other than that his worst finish has been 22nd. While driving the #1 Chevy for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Truex grabbed the pole and earned a 5th place finish in the November 2009 race at PIR.

14. Kevin Harvick - Happy probably isn’t too happy after blowing an engine at Daytona, but he should be able to get a decent finish this week. In sixteen career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins and seven top tens. During his magical 2010 season, he finished 13th in the April race and 6th in the November race while challenging for the championship. He usually does better in the fall race here, so make sure you watch him in practice this weekend.

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If Junior is going to prove to people that he can actually drive a car, he needs to start getting the finishes. At Daytona last week, he was near the front before having to pit and go to the back of the pack. He was then caught up in a wreck, ruining his chances of winning. Little E has won at Phoenix twice before, and last year he finished 12th and 14th. He’s usually hit-or-miss at Phoenix, so be careful if you are going to pick him. He has ten top 20s in 17 starts here, but five finishes of 30th or worse as well.

Underdogs Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose has been decent at Phoenix his whole career. He has two 11th place finishes to his credit, and hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in five starts here. He drives the 9 car for Richard Petty Motorsports, which is the same car that Aric Almirola qualified 9th with in the November race here at Phoenix.

David Reutimann - Reutty has two top tens at this track, and both came in 2009. His average finish here is 19.9, so don’t expect a top ten, but if he can get a good starting spot and find the right setup for the race, he could be a surprise come Sunday.

A.J. Allmendinger - Like Ambrose, Allmendinger has been very consistent at Phoenix. He has been pretty good at qualifying, too, starting 2nd and 1st in his past two starts here. In five starts at PIR, The Dinger has four finishes between 13th and 18th.

Bobby Labonte - He started off the first season with his new team with a great showing at Daytona, and he could get a solid top 20 this weekend with them. Labonte ended up 20th last year while driving the 09 car for Phoenix Racing and back when he drove for Petty has just one finish outside of the top twenty in six starts. With–arguably–his best equipment in years, Bobby could surprise people this year.

Those To Avoid Entering The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Regan Smith - He proved me wrong last week in Daytona, but you won’t find him on my rosters this week, either. In five starts at Phoenix, Smith hasn’t finished better than 23rd, but he has started in the top ten twice.

Paul Menard - If you are looking for a driver that will give you a mid-20’s finish, go with Menard, but don’t expect much more. He has eight starts at Phoenix International Raceway, but hasn’t finished better than 21st–or worse than 29th.

Brian Vickers - His return to racing didn’t go as well as he planned, and I don’t expect Vickers’ season to suddenly turn around at Phoenix. His past four starts here have produced three finishes of 38th or worse, and while he has one top fife here (in 2005), that is also his only top ten.

Brad Keselowski - BK has a 16th-place finish to his credit at Phoenix, but his other two starts ended in 42nd and 37th-place finishes. His 42nd came in last year’s fall race, where he hit the wall early and couldn’t recover.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Phoenix International Raceway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Denny Hamlin	12	13.86
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	5	11.11
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	10.40
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Carl Edwards	1	11.49
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.60
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	5	10.03
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	12	10.89
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	21	13.06
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.37
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	11.91
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	12	10.74
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.89
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	5	12.09
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	13	13.54
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	14.06
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	10.86
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	5	13.26
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	11.34
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	14.37

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at PIR

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Aric Almirola	27	15.89
James Jones	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	13.66
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	19.49
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	8	11.54
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	8	15.74
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Ryan NewmanDale Earnhardt Jr	214	13.5714.09
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	15.00
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jamie McMurray	10	12.34
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	3	14.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	14	13.51
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Joey Logano	3	14.94
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	8	14.94
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	16.00
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	8	17.89
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Ryan Newman	2	15.37
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	16.29
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	19.71
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	3	12.26

Contender or Pretender: Phoenix 2

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) – Jimmie Johnson has sealed the championship at Phoenix the last four years in a row. This year he needs to really step up his game and close his points deficit to Denny Hamlin. In the last four fall Phoenix races Johnson’s loop data numbers are off the charts. His average finish is 1.3 and his average running position is 2.5. Johnson has nothing to lose by racing hard and that’s exactly what he’ll be doing.

Jeff Burton (Pretender) - Jeff Burton had the second best car at Phoenix last fall, but things have changed since then. Burton now has trouble on the track every week. If he’s not wrecking then he’s struggling on tracks that he should be good on. Falling behind by 473 points in 8 races is quite a feat. His history at Phoenix is good, but I have no plans to pick him.

Denny Hamlin (Contender) – Will he win at Phoenix? Nope, I don’t think he wants to at this point. I would say Hamlin’s probability of a  top five finish is 100 percent. If he doesn’t finish in the top five then look for him to end the race right on Johnson’s back bumper.

Kurt Busch (Pretender) – Kurt Busch has been Jimmie Johnson’s main challenger in the fall race in recent years, but like Burton there’s no reason to pick him this week. So far in the Chase Kurt Busch has only finished in the top ten once, and even in that race he hurt himself by speeding down pit road (Dover). Just so you know his lack of top tens is not a Chase record. Last year Brian Vickers didn’t finish in the top ten once.

Kyle Busch (Contender) – Do you remember who had the best car this spring? Here’s a clue, he got black flagged two laps at Texas. That’s right it was Kyle Busch. If it wasn’t for a late caution he would have two career wins at Phoenix. Check out his Yahoo race chart graph.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Pretender) – Earnhardt Jr. once was an excellent pick at Phoenix, but things changed in 2009. In his first two races at Phoenix with Hendrick Motor Sports Junior finished sixth and seventh. His average finish in his last three races is 26th. If you’re looking for hope which there is some this week he’s been very strong at New Hampshire this year.

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