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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Homestead - Ford 400

Well, this it it. It’s been a fun 2011 season, and this Sunday champions will finally be crowned–both in NASCAR as well as fantasy leagues worldwide. We will have the normal schedule this weekend: two practices on Friday, qualifying Saturday, and then the race on Sunday. I would like to quickly thank everyone that took the time to read my articles this season, and I hope you continue reading next year. Now without further ado, my final fantasy preview for the 2011 NASCAR season…

During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.

2. Tony Stewart - Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.

3. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.

4. Kasey Kahne - I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.

5. Matt Kenseth - It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.

6. A.J. Allmendinger - Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.

7. Jimmie Johnson - I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.

8. Kyle Busch - I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. - Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.

10. Greg Biffle - The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.

11. Jeff Burton - All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.

12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.

13. Kurt Busch - If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.

15. Trevor Bayne - Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.

Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:

Brian Vickers - I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”

David Reutimann - What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.

Marcos Ambrose - I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 - Kobalt Tools 500

As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas 2 - AAA Texas 500

I hope you enjoyed last Sunday’s caution-filled race at Martinsville Speedway because this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway will, more than likely, be what I like to call a snooze-fest. What’s good for fantasy owners, though, is that the practice schedule for this event is back to “normal.” There will be one session on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying at 4:30 eastern time. Then, on Saturday, two more practices will be held where all of the cars will be in race trim, so average practice speeds shouldn’t be skewed much. The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled to start around 3:30 pm eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Matt Kenseth - Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.

2. Carl Edwards - If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).

3. Jimmie Johnson - I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.

4. Greg Biffle - If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.

5. Denny Hamlin - This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.

6. Tony Stewart - This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.

9. Mark Martin - Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.

10. Jeff Burton - Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.

11. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.

12. Clint Bowyer - Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).

13. Kasey Kahne - In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.

14. David Ragan - As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.

15. Brad Keselowski - This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:

Brian Vickers - I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.

Jamie McMurray - Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 - Tums Fast Relief 500

With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Kyle Busch - Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.

2. Jimmie Johnson - If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.

3. Kevin Harvick - What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon - Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.

5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…

6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).

7. Brad Keselowski - Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.

8. Clint Bowyer - NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.

9. Ryan Newman - Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.

11. Jamie McMurray - This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.

12. Matt Kenseth - Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.

14. Juan Montoya - If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.

15. Jeff Burton - With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.

Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:

Greg Biffle - Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.

Kurt Busch - It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.

Kasey Kahne - I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.

Download On Pit Row’s Full Color 2010 NASCAR Calender Free!

2010 NASCAR Calender in Printable PDF

We’re making our original 2010 NASCAR calenderin printable PDF format available for the first time ever. These printable calenders featuring original photos of NASCAR drivers, taken by our fabulous photog BethAnne, have been around for three years now.

The calenders are a labor of love created by BethAnne and given only to members of the On Pit Row pitcrew. That is until now.

Check out the thumbnails below for each month. Race dates for the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule, Nationwide Series, Camping World Truck Series and ARCA schedules along with most of the Sprint Cup driver’s birthdays are included.

Click on the individual thumbs to view a larger image. There is a link at the bottom of this page to the printable PDF of the whole calender. Thanks BethAnne!

Click the link for the download, but be patient. It’s a big file.

2010 On Pit Row NASCAR Calender Printable PDF

Instructions for printing: Print calendar fit to page, double-sided, head to toe on 8.5×11 or 11×17 paper. Fold in half and staple in the middle. The finished size will be 8×5.5 or 8.5×11 respectively. Enjoy!

Get Inside My Head: A Scary Look at a Fantasy Racing Draft

NASCAR fantasy racing isn’t as big as fantasy football or fantasy baseball, but it’s growing. There are more fantasy racing games being offered than ever. Some NASCAR fantasy games are free, like the One and Done NASCAR game here at OnPitRow.com. Other games charge to play and offer opportunities for money prizes.

RTSports.com offer a menu of pay to play games and RTS is hosting a NASCAR experts game for the fantasy sports site KFFL.com.

Cory Bonini of KFFL invited me to join five other guys from around the NASCAR fantasy world to participate in a NASCAR fantasy draft and play out the season in the game. Cory wrote a post recapping the draft that you can read here. Below are the participants in that draft and the draft order.

• Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com
• Charlie Turner, OnPitRow.com
• Chris Thompson, RTSports.com
• Cory J. Bonini, KFFL.com
• Darren Fauth, OneBadWheel.com
• Alan Boodman, RacingReference.info

This was the first NASCAR fantasy draft for me and I thought some of you might be interested in what went into my choices. So here goes, along with some of Cory’s comments concerning my picks. The draft was five rounds, serpentine format (draft order reverses each round)

Round 1, my pick no. 2 - I knew for a couple days that I would have the 2nd overall pick. I was pretty sure that Adam would take Jimmie Johnson with the first pick. I am still sold on the quality of the Hendrick Motorsports teams. So one thing that went into my overall thinking about the draft was that I wanted at least one - but preferably two - of Hendrick cars on my team. Jeff Gordon, in my opinion, is just a tick behind Johnson at the top. I liked Carl Edwards too. But since this was a serpentine draft, and I wouldn’t pick again until pick no. 11, I wanted Gordon. Plenty of experts are picking Denny Hamlin to win it all. I think the knee takes enough of an edge off during a 36-plus race season to knock him out. Cory took Kyle Busch over Hamlin and I think he got the best Toyota. And yes, I would have taken Johnson if Adam hadn’t.

Round 2, my pick - no.11 -  Off the board, Johnson, J. Gordon, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Hamlin,  Mark Martin in round 1 and Ryan Newman, Edwards, Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch were the first four in the second round. I would be picking again at pick no. 14. I rated the four best drivers left at this point to be Matt Kenseth (best remaining Ford), Juan Pablo Montoya (I think best Earnhardt-Ganasi Chevy), Clint Bowyer (again, I think the best of the RCR teams) and Earnhardt. I rated Kenseth and Bowyer above the others. I made my choice based on Chevy over Ford. I am not yet sold on the Ford’s ability to beat the Chevy’s consistently.

Adam followed up taking Kenseth. Cory commented that “Bowyer and Kenseth may prove to be reaches.”

Round 3, my pick no.14 -  Adam started off the round taking Montoya, and Cory liked that pick. Now I’m up and my board has Dale Earnhardt Jr as the man. I took him. Here are the three reasons why. 1. Last of the Hendrick Motorsport drivers available. As I said, they are the best. 2. Chevy team - already explained. 3. I had spoken with Boris Said On Pit Row the previous Tuesday. Boris is convinced that Junior is primed for a very good season. Said sold me on Earnhardt’s talent and the team’s ability to win races.

Not everyone agrees. Cory said Junior was “the biggest reach of this round” and “in my opinion, he’s the most overrated driver in all of the NASCAR”. Given the choice though, I’m going with Boris opinion.

The rest of the round went Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Jeff Burton and Joey Logano.

Round 4, my pick no. 22 - The next off the board were Marcos Ambrose, David Reautiman, Kevin Harvick and Elliott Sadler. I selected David Ragan. My first non-Chevy and I had him rated higher than all of the above except for Harvick. I considered Martin Truex Jr here. I chose the stability of Ragan’s Roush-Fenway team. Plus I did want a Roush car (best Ford team). Truex Jr was taken next by Adam.

Round 5, my pick no.24 - Adam’s final pick was Brad Keselowski - a choice I like. I grabbed Jamie McMurray, who Cory called “a solid but unspectacular racer” which I agree with. Jamies’s Chevy power trumped a possible A J Allmendinger or Sam Hornish Jr pick for me. The draft finished up with Hornish, Allmendiger, Paul Menard and Bobby Labonte.

Here are the teams as drafted:

Adam Ansell

• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Brad Keselowski
• Juan Pablo Montoya
• Martin Truex Jr.

Alan Boodman

• Marcos Ambrose
• Bobby Labonte
• Joey Logano
• Mark Martin
• Ryan Newman

Chris Thompson

• Kurt Busch
• Sam Hornish Jr.
• Kasey Kahne
• Elliott Sadler
• Tony Stewart

Cory J. Bonini

• A.J. Allmendinger
• Greg Biffle
• Kyle Busch
• Kevin Harvick
• Brian Vickers

Darren Fauth

• Jeff Burton
• Carl Edwards
• Denny Hamlin
• Paul Menard
• David Reutimann

Charlie Turner

• Clint Bowyer
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Jeff Gordon
• Jamie McMurray
• David Ragan

The way the league is played, each player starts four of his five drivers and starters need to be selected before qualifying.

The Daytona 500 worked out well for me. I started all of my Chevy drivers, sitting Ragan in the lone Ford. The decision for me was between Ragan and McMurray for starter number four. Jamie’s past win at Daytona saved me from embarrassment. My top three finishers finished 1st, 2nd and 4th. Jeff Gordon, my top pick, finished outside the top 20.

That decision on starters will be tough all year. For California, the NASCAR statistics told me to sit Junior.

Damn this is hard.

Happy Fantasy Auto Racing New Year!

The return of One & Done is right around the corner but we’ve got this challenge ready for you right now! This season we also invite you to On Pit Row’s Yahoo! Fantasy group for a prize pack that includes:

•    5 DVD set - Dale Earnhardt - 10 Greatest Wins
•    The Blount Report: NASCAR’s Most Overrated and Underrated Drivers, Cars, Teams, and Tracks by ESPN’s Terry Blount
•    No Fear Racing (Boris Said) T-Shirt
•    Kevin Harvick Bobblehead
•    Armor All Complete Car Care Kit (Armor All brand Protectant, Glass Wipes, Wash & Wax, Tire Foam)

Go here to sign up. There’s only 50 spots available so hurry!
•    ID# 2262
•    password “fantasy”

Fantasy content for the 2010 season will be brewing On Pit Row all week long!

Monday (1/18) is the start of my five-part Fantasy NASCAR Primer Series and I’ll be on the air Tuesday (1/19) to discuss that and more!

2009 OPer Awards: Worst NASCAR Crew Chief

Let me lodge my official protest of the name for this OPeR. I want it on record that I lobbied for “Most Disappointing Performance by a NASCAR Crew Chief”.

Worst NASCAR crew chief doesn’t fit the purpose here.

That said, my pick of Steve Addington edged Steve’s choice of Tony Eury Jr, for whatever this award. Award?

I’m not sure who to blame. But in football, it’s usually the quarterback. And in racing, the crew chief.

Kyle Busch dominated the NASCAR statistics everywhere in NASCAR except in Cup. Kyle got a pass and Addington got the boot.

2009 OPer Awards: Best Post Race Celebration

Carl Edwards pulled an upset of sorts by winning the OPeR for best post-race celebration, even though he the NASCAR stats show that he failed to win a Sprint Cup race in 2009.

Steve convinced me that Carl’s Talladega post-crash dash across the finish line on foot - ala Ricky Bobby - was the best of the year.

My first choice was Kurt Busch’s backwards victory laps. I know they’re a bit hokey, but Kurt stuck with them and at least he got to do a couple by winning some races.

2009 OPer Awards: Worst NASCAR Team

I’m sorry Junior Nation. Your boy’s team sucked in 2009.

The Hendrick Motorsports team was the exception that made the rest of that organization’s dominance of Sprint Cup 2009 season seem sort of mortal.

But the combination that was the no. 88 Amp Energy-National Guard team was like the old “Gang that couldn’t shoot straight”.

Who knows where the blame should go. Dale Earnhardt Jr gets way more than his share. But it didn’t cost him his job. Tony Eury Jr got a bunch of the flack too. And a pink slip.

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