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This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Below are 24 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish this season at four flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
The four flat tracks vary in length but do feature similar banking. Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks: Richmond is a little shorter (0.75 miles) and banked 14 degrees; New Hampshire is a little longer (1.06 miles) and most recently, Martinsville which is much shorter (0.53 miles) both are banked 12 degrees. Phoenix is 1.00 miles and banked 11 degrees and held its first race in April, the eighth race of the season.
|
MVILLE 1 |
PHX |
Rich 1 |
NH 1 |
RICH 2 |
NH 2 |
MVILLE2 |
AVG |
| Mark Martin |
7 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
5.7 |
| Denny Hamlin |
2 |
6 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5.9 |
| Tony Stewart |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
14 |
9 |
7.4 |
| Kurt Busch |
18 |
3 |
12 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
17 |
8.7 |
| Jeff Gordon |
4 |
25 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
8.9 |
| Kyle Busch |
24 |
17 |
1 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
| Jimmie Johnson |
1 |
4 |
36 |
9 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
9.6 |
| Ryan Newman |
6 |
16 |
4 |
29 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
11.3 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya |
12 |
24 |
10 |
12 |
19 |
3 |
3 |
11.9 |
| Clint Bowyer |
5 |
26 |
18 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
19 |
14.9 |
| David Reutimann |
20 |
8 |
28 |
4 |
20 |
12 |
16 |
15.4 |
| Jamie McMurray |
10 |
11 |
7 |
33 |
27 |
18 |
6 |
16.0 |
| Jeff Burton |
15 |
15 |
3 |
31 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
16.1 |
| Greg Biffle |
28 |
5 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
25 |
16.4 |
| Joey Lagano |
32 |
21 |
19 |
1 |
14 |
21 |
12 |
17.1 |
| Casey Mears |
21 |
20 |
9 |
11 |
30 |
13 |
18 |
17.4 |
| Brian Vickers |
33 |
19 |
15 |
35 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
18.7 |
| Marcos Ambrose |
14 |
14 |
11 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
27 |
18.7 |
| Carl Edwards |
26 |
10 |
26 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
19.0 |
| Sam Hornish, Jr. |
34 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
37 |
36 |
19.7 |
| Matt Kenseth |
23 |
27 |
13 |
22 |
25 |
23 |
14 |
21.0 |
| Kasey Kahne |
19 |
13 |
29 |
10 |
12 |
38 |
32 |
21.9 |
| Kevin Harvick |
11 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
9 |
32 |
10 |
22.9 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
8 |
31 |
27 |
13 |
21 |
35 |
29 |
23.4 |
Loudon
Who's Up
|
Who's Down
|
Biggest Gain This Week:
Mark Martin: 3rd to 1st
|
Biggest Drop This Week:
Kasey Kahne: 7th to 10th
|
No new drivers this week.
|
No drivers dropped out this week.
|
|
Rank: 1st
|
Mark Martin- 5 Wins, 15 Top TensNot only did Mark Martin get his first career win at Loudon but he also extended his contract last week. Will this be his year? Someone will win it. Did you know that Martin first announced his "Salute to you tour" in 2004. |
|
Rank: 2nd
|
Jimmie Johnson- 3 Wins, 16 Top TensJohnson dominated the Dover race earlier this year but there are no guarantee's in NASCAR. It will be difficult for the 48 team to duplicate their previous dominate performance. |
|
Rank: 3rd
|
Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 18 Top TensI don't really know what happened to this team Sunday. They were the fastest team on the track at the start of the race then all of a sudden they were junk. As a result of his bad day Gordon now sits 10th in the point standings. |
|
Rank: 4th
|
Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 15 Top TensThis team will try their hardest having their crew chief Pat Tryson there part time but I don't really think this is a sustainable strategy. I expect this problem to grow over the course of the remaining 9 races. |
|
Rank: 5th
|
Denny Hamlin- 2 Wins, 15 Top TensHamlin was definitely the most aggressive driver on the track at New Hampshire. He was running into other cars frequently and he even ran over a guy on pit road. If his high aggression level continues trouble will certainly find him on the track. |
|
Rank: 6th
|
Tony Stewart- 3 Wins, 18 Top TensThere have been a lot of people saying this team is testing but I'm going to hold my ground on this one and say they're simply making mistakes. In order for Stewart to win the championship he really needed to score more points here. |
|
Rank: 7th
|
Juan Pablo Montoya- 3 Top Fives, 13 Top TensThe 42 is truly a top team in the series. The main thing people hold against him is his lackluster history. This year is vastly different from years in the past. If you haven't thrown out the history book on him yet, do it now. |
|
Rank: 8th
|
Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top TensNot too many teams made a mistake at Loudon but this team did. I honestly don't trust this pit crew at all. Fun Fact: Did you know that Brian Vickers best finish in the last 10 races in 2008 was 11th and his team was caught cheating after that race. |
|
Rank: 9th
|
Greg Biffle- 8 Top Fives, 13 Top TensBiffle is the only Roush car that is showing a heart beat now but in order to win the championship teams need to do a lot more then that. Anything less then a top 5 for Biffle at Dover will be considered a failure. |
|
Rank: 10th
|
Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 10 Top TensCan you stick a fork in this team yet? I say hold off for now but their championship chances are greatly reduced. At least he won't have to worry about the R6 motor next year. |
|
Rank: 11th
|
Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 13 Top TensI bet you didn't know this but Newman now has 4 consecutive top tens in a row. Ryan Newman once owned Dover and even won here without power steering. A good day for this team is crucial for their championship aspirations. |
|
Rank: 12th
|
Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 11 Top TensOne race into the Chase and this team is already 113 points behind Mark Martin. If there performance is flat at Dover then it will be time to stick a fork in them for the year. |
Welcome to the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It is now crunch time for the 12 drivers who made the cut as well as fantasy owners looking to capture their own victory.
Of the 10 tracks that make up the Chase schedule, eight of them have hosted races earlier in the season. I have compiled a table with the results of those eight events and ranked the top-26 drivers by their average finish. Check out my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table here.
One thing you will notice right away is how many of the top drivers fared poorly at Talladega Superspeedway. We know anything can happen there. Things also got a little messy at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. For owners in allocation formats, like Yahoo!, these are two races where you can converse your remaining starts for the top drivers.
Starting position is huge at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. There have been a total of 29 Sprint Cup races runs held here, the winner has started 15th or better 21 times. Over the last three years (seven races), five winners have started 11th or better. The other two winners, Kurt Busch in June of last year and Joey Logano in this year’s June race, came from the middle of the pack but picked up their wins when the race was called early due to rain.
New Hampshire is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville Speedway, but the most recent race held there was back in March. Richmond International Raceway is also a flat race track so last week’s results are far more relevant. Fantasy owners should set their lineups simply based on who’s hot entering the Chase.
Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.
- Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
- Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
- Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
- Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
- Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.
- Jimmie Johnson… Good qualifier. Average finish of 6.3 over the last five Loudon races, all top-10 finishes. Started third or fourth in three of his last four attempts at NH, led over 90 laps in the last two. Average running position of 5.0 in June. Two-time winner (’03 sweep). Y!-A1
- Tony Stewart… Last nine races at Loudon: only one finish worse than 13th, laps led in seven. Finished fifth in June. Average finish of 3.8 over the last four September races at NH. Two-time winner (’00, ‘05). Y!-B1
- Denny Hamlin… Good qualifier. Seven career starts at Loudon: average finish of 8.3, has never finished worse than 15th, which he did in June. Average finish of 8.5 in ‘08 NH races. Has never started worse than 14th. Won in ‘07. Y!-B2
- Mark Martin… Started 11th, finished 14th in June race at Loudon, average running position: 9.0- first start at NH since ‘06. Y!-A2
- Kurt Busch… Started fourth, finished third in June. Average finish of 3.5 last year at Loudon, including a win. Three-time winner (’04 sweep, 06/08) Y!-B3
- Jeff Gordon… Started and finished second in June, led 62 laps. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 Loudon races. Runner-up in both ‘07 races. Owns 11 finishes of first, second or third in 29 career starts. Three-time winner (’97, ‘98). Y!-A3
- Kyle Busch… Finished seventh in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 29.5 in ‘08 NH races, 7.5 in ‘07- led laps in both. Won in ‘06. Y!-A4
- Kasey Kahne… Started 13th, finished 10th in June. Started 13th, finished 11th in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-B4
- Greg Biffle… Finished 18th in June race at Loudon. Won last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 4.5 in the last four September NH races.
- Brian Vickers… Risky play. Finished 35th in June (accident) and in last year’s Sylvania 300. 11 career starts: 21.0 average finish. Y!-B5
- Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best 12th in June race at Loudon. Y!-B6
- Ryan Newman… Average running position of 17th in June race at Loudon, finished 29th and led 17 laps. DNF and 15th-place finish last year. Average finish of 9.5 in ‘07 races, led laps in both. Two-time winner (’02, ‘05). Y!-B7
- Kevin Harvick… Finished a career-worst 34th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘08 NH races. Won from the pole in ‘06.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Good qualifier. Finished 13th in June race at Loudon, fifth in last year’s Sylvania 300- led 79 laps. Led laps in both ‘07 and ‘08 NH races- average finish of 12.3 in those four races. Started fourth and fifth last year. Y!-B8
- David Reutimann… Strong value play. Has improved career-best finish at Loudon in each of his five starts. Finished a career-best fourth in June.
- Carl Edwards… Risky play. Finished 19th in June race at Loudon, third in last year’s Sylvania 300. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘07 NH races.
- Jeff Burton… Finished 31st in June race at Loudon, worst finish since a blown engine in ‘03. Average finish of 10.5 in the 10 races in between. Four-time winner (’97-’00).
- Matt Kenseth… Finished 22nd in June race at Loudon. DNF (accident) and 18th-place finish last year. Ten top-10 finishes in the prior 11 races (’02-’07).
- Joey Logano… Won in rain-shortened June race at Loudon but an average running position of 21st. Started 40th, finished 32nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Won the pole, finished second in June Nationwide race. Won both ‘07 Camping World East Series races.
- Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Started 26th, finished a career-best eighth in June race at Loudon- average running position of 13th. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘08 NH races. Y!-C1
- Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. DNF in June race at Loudon, snapping a streak of four straight top-10 finishes- average finish of 4.75 in that span.
- Marcos Ambrose… Finished 23rd in June race, first career start at Loudon. Finished 14th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
- Clint Bowyer… Seven career starts at Loudon: one top-10 finish, a win from the pole in ‘07. Average finish of 23.6 in the six other NH races.
- Casey Mears… Weak value play. Finished 11th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 20th.
- Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Finished 21st in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 11.5 in ‘08 NH races, 20.0 in ‘07. Y!-C3
- Reed Sorenson… Weak value play. Seven career starts at Loudon: 18.0 average finish. Finished 17th in June race, 22nd in last year’s Sylvania 300. Y!-C4
- Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 25.2 over the last five starts at Loudon.
- AJ Allmendinger… Finished 32nd in June race at Loudon, two DNFs in ‘08. Finished 33rd in lone ‘07 NH start.
- Jamie McMurray… Three straight finishes of 33rd or worse at Loudon, average finish of 13.5 in ‘07 NH races.
- David Ragan… DNFs (accidents) in two of his last three starts at Loudon. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07 NH races. Finished sixth in last year’s Nationwide race.
- Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th in June race at Loudon, 25th in last year’s Sylvania 300.
- Robby Gordon… Won in ‘01. Finished 25th in June race at Loudon, 26th in both ‘07 NH races.
- John Andretti… Finished 16th in June race at Loudon, average running position of 30th.
- Erik Darnell… Finished sixth in June Nationwide race at Loudon, average finish of 5.0 in three Truck series races (’06-’08).
- Aric Almirola… Average finish of 20.5 in ‘08 races at Loudon.
- Paul Menard… Finished 30th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 28.6 in five career NH starts.
- David Stremme… Finished 28th in June race at Loudon. Average finish of 34.5 in ‘07 NH races.
- Scott Speed… Finished 36th (DNF, accident) in June race, first career start at Loudon. Started fourth, finished eighth in June Nationwide race.
- Joe Nemechek… DNFs in four of his last seven starts at Loudon. Won in ‘99.
- Patrick Carpentier… DNF (accident) in June race at Loudon.
- Dave Blaney… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
- David Gilliland… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
- Tony Raines… Start and parked in June race at Loudon.
- Dexter Bean… No career starts at Loudon.
- Mike Wallace… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘05, average finish of 17.6 in eight Nationwide starts.
- Derrike Cope… No Cup starts at Loudon since ‘03. DNF in June Nationwide race at Loudon.
Richmond
Who's Up
|
Who's Down
|
Biggest Gain This Week:
Jeff Gordon: 3rd to 1st
|
Biggest Drop This Week:
Juan Pablo Montoya: 5th to 9th
|
New This Week:
|
Dropped Out This Week:
|
|
|
Rank: 1st
|
Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 18 Top TensWhy will Jeff Gordon finally complete his drive for 5? Gordon has one of the best Intermediate track programs in the series and there's not one single race in the Chase that this team isn't capable of winning. |
|
|
Rank: 2nd
|
Jimmie Johnson- 3 Wins, 15 Top TensJimmie Johnson has won the past three championships but you know what, this isn't last year. The bullet proof Jimmie Johnson of old has repeatedly been making mistakes. Under a 10 race format teams must be mistake free. |
|
|
Rank: 3rd
|
Mark Martin- 4 Wins, 14 Top TensMark Martin leads the series in wins and he is also one of the most consistent drivers. The thing that scares me about Mark Martin is that he's just so unlucky. When you make a championship pick don't overlook this fact. |
|
|
Rank: 4th
|
Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 14 Top TensKurt Busch won the very first Chase and this team is capable of rallying and perhaps winning the 2009 championship. Unfortunately they will have distractions because Pat Tryson the crew chief already announced he's leaving. |
|
|
Rank: 5th
|
Tony Stewart- 3 Wins, 18 Top TensTony Stewart has been the point’s leader for the majority of the season. Stewart was the point’s leader because of consistency not because they were the fastest team on the track. The consistency of this team is gone is now so what do they have left? |
|
|
Rank: 6th
|
Denny Hamlin- 2 Wins, 14 Top TensHamlin has scored the most points in the series over the last 6 races but in my opinion the 11 team never performs well under pressure. I've lost count of all their long untimely pit stops. Their Chase history isn't stellar either. |
|
|
Rank: 7th
|
Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 10 Top TensKasey Kahne is entering the Chase with a very recent win at Atlanta. The majority of the tracks in the Chase are good tracks for Kahne and with a little bit of luck Kahne might be in the championship mix at Homestead. |
|
|
Rank: 8th
|
Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top TensHow many times in NASCAR have we seen drivers who just manage to squeak into the Chase crumble like a cookie once their in? Vickers should be able to dodge this problem because the Chase is Intermediate track heavy so it fits his strength perfectly. |
|
|
Rank: 9th
|
Juan Pablo Montoya- 2 Top Fives, 12 Top TensMontoya has been driving smart and safe all season long but now is the time for this team to step it up and take more risks. Montoya certainly has consistency figured out, but he needs top fives in order to get the big points week in and week out. |
|
|
Rank: 10th
|
Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 11 Top TensCarl Edwards is one of the top NASCAR drivers around but the equipment underneath him just isn't good enough. No driver has ever won the championship if they haven't already won a race earlier in the year. |
|
|
Rank: 11th
|
Greg Biffle- 8 Top Fives, 12 Top TensI find it impossible to be optimistic about Roush-Fenway cars when there performances at Intermediate tracks are sub par. The 16 got off to a fast start last year in the Chase and if they contend they will need to do so again.
|
|
|
Rank: 12th
|
Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 12 Top TensI expect Newman to get off to a good start in the Chase. New Hampshire and Dover are good tracks for Newman but reality will set in at Kansas. |
This table designed primarily to help fantasy NASCAR owners with deciding on how to spend their remaining driver starts as we progress through the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The table ranks the 26 most relevant drivers by their average finish at the eight Chase tracks that held their first Cup event earlier in the season.
|
Loudon |
Dover |
Fontana
|
Lowe’s |
Martinsville |
Talladega |
Texas |
Phoenix |
AVG |
| Tony Stewart |
5 |
2 |
8 |
19 |
3 |
23 |
4 |
2 |
8.25 |
| Jimmie Johnson |
9 |
1 |
9 |
13 |
1 |
30 |
2 |
4 |
8.63 |
| Kurt Busch |
3 |
5 |
5 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
8 |
3 |
10.25 |
| Greg Biffle |
18 |
3 |
4 |
20 |
28 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
11.00 |
| David Reutimann |
4 |
18 |
14 |
1 |
20 |
26 |
11 |
8 |
12.75 |
| Ryan Newman |
29 |
8 |
28 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
16 |
13.38 |
| Carl Edwards |
19 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
26 |
24 |
10 |
10 |
13.38 |
| Matt Kenseth |
22 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
5 |
27 |
13.63 |
| Denny Hamlin |
15 |
36 |
6 |
11 |
2 |
22 |
12 |
6 |
13.75 |
| Jeff Gordon |
2 |
26 |
2 |
14 |
4 |
37 |
1 |
25 |
13.88 |
| Kasey Kahne |
10 |
6 |
12 |
7 |
19 |
36 |
19 |
13 |
15.25 |
| Kyle Busch |
7 |
23 |
3 |
6 |
24 |
25 |
18 |
17 |
15.38 |
| Juan Montoya |
12 |
30 |
11 |
8 |
12 |
20 |
7 |
24 |
15.50 |
| Mark Martin |
14 |
10 |
40 |
17 |
7 |
43 |
6 |
1 |
17.25 |
| Joey Logano |
1 |
15 |
26 |
9 |
32 |
9 |
30 |
21 |
17.88 |
| Brian Vickers |
35 |
25 |
10 |
5 |
33 |
8 |
16 |
19 |
18.88 |
| Jeff Burton |
31 |
16 |
32 |
25 |
15 |
10 |
9 |
15 |
19.13 |
| Sam Hornish Jr. |
8 |
13 |
23 |
16 |
34 |
34 |
17 |
9 |
19.25 |
| Casey Mears |
11 |
9 |
24 |
33 |
21 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
19.38 |
| Marcos Ambrose |
23 |
20 |
22 |
26 |
14 |
4 |
41 |
14 |
20.50 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
13 |
12 |
39 |
40 |
8 |
2 |
20 |
31 |
20.63 |
| Clint Bowyer |
20 |
11 |
19 |
36 |
5 |
39 |
22 |
26 |
22.25 |
| Jamie McMurray |
33 |
14 |
16 |
21 |
10 |
42 |
38 |
11 |
23.13 |
| Martin Truex Jr. |
37 |
21 |
27 |
23 |
29 |
33 |
25 |
7 |
25.25 |
| AJ Allmendinger |
32 |
29 |
29 |
32 |
9 |
35 |
34 |
35 |
29.38 |
| Kevin Harvick |
34 |
17 |
38 |
41 |
11 |
38 |
27 |
30 |
29.50 |
Written by Eric McClung · Filed Under Auto Club Speedway, Dover International Speedway, Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy Racing, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway, NASCAR Loop Data, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, Talladega Superspeedway, Texas Motor Speedway, chase for the Sprint Cup | 5 Comments
Greetings On Pit Row readers,
Last week I got feedback from a reader that the Fantasy Racing Preview would be more useful if the drivers were ranked straight through, rather than split into the A/B/C list used by Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing. The Preview is still a work in progress and the aim is to inform all fantasy NASCAR players - regardless of format. That said, I’ve taken the feedback and I’ve ranked everyone on the entry list from No. 1 to No. 46 as a test run this week.
For Yahoo! players, the top-four A list drivers, top-eight B list drivers and top-four C list drivers will have Y! tags attached to them. Top qualifiers, for those chasing bonus points, and value plays, for those looking for low-rent salary cap options, will remain the same. Value plays are also geared for owners in allocation formats looking to save driver starts.
As I mentioned on Tuesday’s On Pit Row, starting position is huge at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In the 28 races runs here, the winner has started 15th or better 21 times. Over the last three years (six races), two drivers have won from the pole. The other three winners qualified fourth, ninth and 11th. Kurt Busch won from the 26th position last year, but stayed out prior to rain showers and won a shortened race.
What do you think of the new format? Leave your comments below.
- Jimmie Johnson… Swept in ‘03. Top-10s in six of the last seven, finished 15th or better in 13 of 14 career starts. Best average starting position of the last five years (10 starts): 7.9. Y! A-1
- Tony Stewart… Twenty career starts: 10 top-five finishes. Laps led in three starts in a row and seven of the last nine. Y! B-1
- Jeff Gordon… Laps led in 17 of 28 career starts. ‘08- 11th, 14th. ‘07- second, second. Last pole- ‘04. Last win- ‘98. Y! A-2
- Denny Hamlin… Six career starts: won in ‘07, five top-10 finishes, never finished worse than 15th. Y! B-2
- Greg Biffle… 13 career starts: won the most recent race in September, three consecutive top-fives (7/05, 9/05, 7/06). Only top-10 in the other nine starts. Y! A-3
- Kyle Busch… Most recent pole winner. Laps led in four on eight career starts. ‘08- 25th, 34th. ‘07- 11th, fourth. Won 7/06. Y-4
- Matt Kenseth… No victories, but consistent. Top-10 finishes in 10 of the last 13 starts.
- Ryan Newman… Strong qualifier. Four poles but none since ‘06. Laps led in 11 of 14 career starts. ‘07- ninth, 10th. ‘08- 15th, 36th. Y! B-3
- Kurt Busch… Good qualifier. Started inside the top-three (9/06, 7/07, 9/07) Defending champion of this race, swept in ‘04 but poor finishes in between (19th or worse in five straight races). Y! B-4
- Carl Edwards… Finished third last September, only one top-10 in eight other starts.
- Mark Martin… No starts since ‘06, two top-10s in the last 10 starts.
- Jeff Burton… Four career wins, none since ‘00. Top-10 finishes in five of the last seven starts.
- Clint Bowyer… Six career starts: one top-10, a victory from the pole in 9/07- led 222 of 300 laps.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Good qualifier. Started fourth and fifth last year. Laps led in four straight races but uneven finishes: ‘07- fourth, 16th. ‘08- 24th, fifth. Y! B-5
- Kasey Kahne… First five career starts: four top-10s. Next five starts: zero top-10s, finished 20th or worse three times. Y! B-6
- David Reutimann… Improvements in four straight career starts: ‘07- 38th, 26th. ‘08- 19th, 15th. Y! B-7
- Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Six career starts: seventh or better in four straight. Y! B-8
- Casey Mears… Weak value play. Two top-10 finishes over the last three starts. Finished outside of the top-20 in eight of 12 career starts.
- Kevin Harvick… Laps led in eight of 16 career starts. Won from the pole 9/06.
- Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. ‘08- 10th, 13th. Outside of top-20 in four of five races prior. Seven top-10s nine races from 8/98-9/02. Y! C-1
- Brian Vickers… Laps led in four of 10 career starts but only one top-10 finish (fifth in 9/06).
- Marcos Ambrose… Two Nationwide starts: ‘07- 27th, ‘08- 14th. Truck series: ‘06- 23rd. Y! C-2
- Joey Logano… First career start in last year’s September race: started 40th, finished 32nd. Two ‘07 wins in the East Series.
- Juan Pablo Montoya… Four career starts: 22.8 average finish, never finished better than 17th.
- Jamie McMurray… Eight straight starts without a top-10. ‘07- 16th, 11th. ‘08- 41st, 39th.
- Elliott Sadler… Career-best fifth-place finish last year but only five top-10 finishes in 20 career starts.
- Michael Waltrip… Finished second last year but 23rd or worse in three of the last four starts.
- David Ragan… Four career starts: 25.5 average finish, never finished better than 15th.
- Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. One Nationwide start last year: 10th. Y! C-3
- AJ Allmendinger… Two DNFs in ‘08. One start in ‘07- 33rd. Truck series- ‘06- 13th, ‘07- 34th. Y! C-4
- Sam Hornish Jr…. First two career starts last year: 39th, 30th (34.5 average finish)
- Reed Sorenson… Started and finished sixth last year (his only top-10 in six career starts), finished 22nd in September.
- Paul Menard… Four career starts: 28.3 average finish, never finished better than 21st.
- Robby Gordon… Won in 11/01. Outside of the top-20 in eight of the last 11 races.
- Patrick Carpentier… Won the pole ‘08. Finished 31st in both races last year.
- Dave Blaney… Won the pole in ‘07. Four straight finishes of 29th or worse.
- Joe Nemechek… Won 9/99. Seven straight races of 20th or worse, three DNFs.
- David Stremme… Declining finishes in four straight career starts: ‘06- 11th, 20th. ‘07- 27th, 42nd.
- Regan Smith… Four career starts: 29.5 average finish, never finished better than 23rd.
- David Gilliland… Six career starts: 28.7 average finish, never finished better than 28th.
- John Andretti… No starts in ‘08. One start in ‘07- DNF.
- Scott Speed… No starts at New Hampshire.
- Mike Wallace… Ten career starts, none since ‘05: 30.2 average finish.
- Tony Raines… Six career starts: 25.8 average finish, never finished better than 20th.
- Dexter Bean… No starts at New Hampshire.
- Ted Christopher… Six lifetime Cup starts, none since ‘06, five at New Hampshire: all DNFs. Four Nationwide starts (’97-’00): two DNFs, 18th, 12th
Sonoma
Who's Up
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Who's Down
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Biggest Gain This Week:
Kasey Kahne: 11th to 9th
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Biggest Drop This Week:
Mark Martin: 1st to 3rd
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No new drivers this week.
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No drivers dropped out this week.
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Rank: 1st
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Tony Stewart- 1 Win, 12 Top TensStewart has had a consistent season to date, but I really think in time questions about how fast this team is on the track compared to their competition will surface. Consistency is good but it isn't always enough (Jeff Gordon 2007 Chase). |
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Rank: 2nd
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Jimmie Johnson- 2 Wins, 10 Top TensJimmie Johnson is driving like a man on a mission and people better stay out his way or their day will end like Kurt's at Infineon. This team is ready for the Chase to begin. |
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Rank: 3rd
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Mark Martin- 3 Wins, 8 Top Tens After a long day at Infineon Martin now remembers why he's skipped it the last 2 years.
Did you know that Martin's never won at New Hampshire? It's true.
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Rank: 4th
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Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 11 Top TensJeff Gordon battled back from a pit road penalty and finished 9th at Infineon. This team needs to step up their game now and get some bonus points, and more importantly build up some momentum for the Chase. |
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Rank: 5th
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Carl Edwards- 4 Top Fives, 8 Top TensCarl Edwards is quietly creeping into the Championship picture and will be the top Ford once the Chase begins. Out of all the non-Chevy teams Edwards appears to be their main challenger. |
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Rank: 6th
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Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 8 Top TensHere's a little bit of a Ryan Newman history lesson. What is Newman’s highest points position entering the Chase? The Answer is 10th and all of his previous Chase appearances only featured 10 cars. |
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Rank: 7th
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Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 8 Top TensKurt Busch had at top 5 car at Infineon until Jimmie Johnson was behind him. It almost reminded me of when Stewart used to teach "give and take" lessons. Except Johnson did it politely. |
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Rank: 8th
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Greg Biffle- 5 Top Fives, 8 Top TensGreg Biffle will be happy to forget Infineon because New Hampshire is the site of one of Biffle's 2 wins in 2008. This team is really good and in time they will challenge for a top 5 spot overall. |
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Rank: 9th
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Kasey Kahne- 1 Win, 5 Top TensHow neat was it to see the King in victory lane. Perhaps the most amazing thing was Kasey Kahne never even had a top ten at a road course until his win on Sunday. |
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Rank: 10th
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Denny Hamlin- 4 Top Fives, 6 Top TensDenny Hamlin had a nice day at Infineon and will look to build on his recent momentum at New Hampshire which is similar to Richmond and Phoenix were Denny's been successful in 2009. |
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Rank: 11th
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Kyle Busch- 3 Wins, 5 Top TensIn 2005 Jeff Gordon won 3 of the first nine races and missed the Chase. In 2009 Kyle Busch has won 3 of the first ten races. I'm not saying history will repeat itself but the 18 needs to find consistency again. |
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Rank: 12th
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Matt Kenseth- 2 Wins, 6 Top TensMatt Kenseth doesn't like road courses and his results typically show it. Over the last 3 races this team has been averaging a 19th place finish. At this point in the season that isn't good enough. |
In the Chase For The Cup, winning isn’t everything. Oh sure, Jimmie Johnson tried to prove me wrong last year. But, substitute his run with 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finishes, he still wins the title. No, in the Chase consistency is king. Everyone is entitled to slip up, but make sure it happens early. As Johnson said after Loudon, you don’t really know how it’ll shake out until about Kansas.
Dover has seen Chasers win each race since 2004, yet the eventual champion has, with the exception of Kurt Busch, has had a rather pedestrian finish. That trend could always change, but thus far it has held up. Just something to keep in mind with just 9 races remaining in the year. I hope you saved your fantasy starts for the top drivers at the end. The numbers prove me right:
The winners:
2007 – Carl Edwards
2006 – Jeff Burton
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Ryan Newman
Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson 13th
2005 – Tony Stewart 18th
2004 – Kurt Busch 5th
There are 4 drivers I like to either win or secure a top finish at Dover based on how well they run and their previous records at the track. Those drivers are Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Kyle Busch. Each driver has won at Dover before, with Burton and Edwards winning the ’06 and ’07 races. Biffle and Busch have won spring Dover races and each have 2nd-place Chase finishes here. One driver I say to stay away from is Jimmie Johnson. Sure, Johnson won here in ’05. Yet look at his previous finishes. I don’t like the way he has run here recently, and the recent performance is what I’m looking at. You’d be better-served saving him for Kansas, Charlotte, or Martinsville.
I have a few sleepers to keep an eye on as well. The first is Mark Martin. He does nothing but run up front at Dover. Last season running part-time, he finished 4th. The team and car this year have been good on the smaller tracks. The second sleeper is Jamie McMurray. Despite having his team raided pre-Chase, he always seems to run well at Dover. For those brave souls that don’t mind taking a risk I’d almost say Juan Pablo Montoya. Just call it a hunch. He didn’t run bad last year and was racier than he has been most of the year at Loudon. Maybe he has a little momentum on his side.
Finally, the song for Dover is “Push” by Matchbox Twenty. Like the song says, “It’s not over, no not here.” That, and it’s hard to find a song about Delaware.
Photo credit: Icon Sports Media
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