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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Tony Stewart	1	13.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	1	13.82
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.46
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.00
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.54
Eric McGuire	free agent	Tony Stewart	1	15.11
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Tony Stewart	1	12.21
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	22	15.68
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.07
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	1	11.86
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.39
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.93
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.64
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	2	11.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.64
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Tony Stewart	1	9.50
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.50

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Clint Bowyer	26	11.25
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	26	15.54
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	David Reutimann	28	17.61
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	15	15.71
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jeff Burton	13	15.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	26	14.89
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	21	15.61
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	14.25
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Paul Mennard	20	20.82
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	26	17.18
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	26	11.29
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	16	15.11
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	24	15.11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	3	13.79
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	26	12.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Martin Truex Jr	16	14.11
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	14	16.36
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	21	14.89

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon 2 - Sylvania 300

On Sunday afternoon–for the second and final time this season–the Sprint Cup Series will visit New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Sylvania 300, the second race in the 2011 Chase. After last week’s wild ending in Chicago, the points standings may get shaken up once again on Sunday at “The Magic Mile,” as you never know what’s going to happen on the small race tracks, where racing is tight all around. A fuel mileage race could happen once again as well, as we saw last fall when NASCAR’s most recent winner ran out of fuel on the last lap of this event in 2010.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Ryan Newman started on the pole, led 125 of the 301 laps, and went to victory lane with teammate Tony Stewart following him to the stripe. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top 5. Newman is the only driver in the series to post top 10 finishes in both races at New Hampshire in 2009 as well as the first race here this season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Sylvania 300:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother had the best car last week but came home 6th, and this week the Cup series is visiting one of his better tracks, and the site of three of Kurt’s twenty-three career wins. Over the last five races at Loudon, no driver has a better average driver rating or a better average finish than Kurt Busch. Since his win here in June of 2008, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 13th and hasn’t had a driver rating under 91.7. In the flat track races this season, Busch has started in the top 5 in all five of them and has just one finish outside of the top 10.

2. Jeff Gordon - No one has really been as dominant on the flat tracks this season as Jeff Gordon. He won at Phoenix in February, won at Pocono in June, and finished 2nd at Indianapolis in July. At the series’ first stop at Loudon this season, Gordon finished 11th after starting 7th, and at the last flat track race (Pocono in August), he finished 6th despite starting deep in the pack (31st). At “The Magic Mile,” Jeff owns an average finish of 11th and three victories. In thirty-three starts he has just six finishes outside of the top 20, and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since 2005. Expect this #24 team to rebound after that weak showing in Chicago on Monday.

3. Jimmie Johnson - In the last 19 flat track races, “Five Time” owns fifteen top 10 finishes and three wins. Of those fifteen top 10s, twelve were also top 5s. At New Hampshire, Johnson has visited victory lane three times in nineteen career starts and owns an average finish of 9.6. Recently, Jimmie has posted three top 5s in the last four races at Loudon and has just one finish outside of the top 10 here since 2006. He has the third-best average driver rating of the past five races here and has finished in the top 5 in all but one of the flat track races during this 2011 season.

4. Ryan Newman - With The Rocketman’s 8th-place finish at Chicagoland, he now has five top 10 finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races and a worst finish of 20th. I personally do not think that he has a chance of winning this year’s chase, but with a win at Loudon on Sunday, Newman could turn me–and probably some others–into a believer. He is the most recent winner at this race track and you have to consider Ryan one of the best flat track racers in the series: in the five events on them this season, he has a win, three top 5s, and a worst finish of 12th. At New Hampshire specifically, Newman owns three visits to victory lane and thirteen top 10s in nineteen starts. He hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the last four races here and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.

5. Tony Stewart - After last week’s surprising (to me anyway) victory in Chicago, look for “Smoke” to have another good result in New Hampshire this weekend. Stewart has made twenty-five career starts at “The Magic Mile” and has found himself in victory lane twice. His average finish here is 12th and Tony has the second-best average driver rating at this track over the last five races. He’s finished 2nd in two of the last three races at Loudon and in the other race–where he finished 24th–Stewart was leading on the last lap but ran out of fuel. He has started in the top 5 in four of the last five races at New Hampshire and “Smoke” has finished 11th or better in four of the five flat track races this season. If he wants to make a serious run at the championship this season, Tony Stewart will need a good run this weekend, and I think it will happen.

6. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had engine woes here in July, but before that Kyle Busch ran off four consecutive top 11 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This is nowhere near his best track on the circuit (his average finish is 16.3 at Loudon) but Busch won here in 2006 and has been great on the flat tracks this season–excluding the first visit to this track–with top 3 finishes at Pocono twice as well as Phoenix in February. This team has stumbled recently (one top 10 in the last four Sprint Cup races) so make sure the #18 Toyota looks good in practice before committing to Kyle Busch on Sunday.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has had his fair share of struggles at New Hampshire but his average finish of 14.2 here isn’t too shabby (and actually ranks him 9th of all active drivers). He won from the pole here in 2006 and before his stumble here in July, Harvick had back-to-back top 5 finishes at this race track. As usual, don’t expect a good qualifying effort from the 29 team (just one start better than 18th in the last five races here) but a good finish should be expected. This year at the flat tracks, Harvick has recorded top 5s at Phoenix and Pocono and an 11th at Indianapolis.

8. Carl Edwards - He has just two top 10s in fourteen career starts at Loudon, but if Cousin Carl is going to make a legitimate run at the championship–which I think he will do–he will have to turn his luck around at this race track. He’s not terrible here, as shown with his 14.4 average finish, but he will need a run on Sunday similar to his efforts here in 2008 and 2006, where Carl finished in the top 5. In his career here, Edwards has just one finish outside of the top 20, so he’s very consistent, but he just needs to run a little better to get a third top 10 at “The Magic Mile.” I think that will happen on Sunday, as the #99 Ford has been pretty fast at the flat tracks this season.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is a very consistent driver (just one finish worse than 16th since early mid-July) but he hasn’t really put up top 10s–instead, Earnhardt usually finishes in the mid-teens. He lucked into a top 5 at Chicago on Monday, but I think the fan favorite will legitimately have a top 10 run this weekend. In the last six Loudon races, Junior has three top 10 finishes and just one finish outside of the top 15. What’s better yet is how good this team has been on the flat tracks in 2011: two top 10s at Pocono, a 10th at Phoenix, and a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. The last time the series visited Loudon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came home in 15th after starting 27th.

10. Denny Hamlin - I know Denny’s history at this track is very impressive–which I will get to in a little bit–but let’s be honest: this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and despite having solid top 10 runs before last week’s disaster in Chicago, they probably should have finished better in those races. Now to Hamlin’s record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In eleven career starts at this track, Denny has a series-best average finish of 7.2 and one win. He has never finished worse than 15th here and Hamlin has completed every single lap ran in the events he has participated at “The Magic Mile.” If he looks great in practice, I’ll rank him a little higher, but as of now Hamlin is just a top 10 driver in my mind. He has just one top 10 finish in the five flat track races this season.

11. Brad Keselowski - He got another top 5 finish at Chicagoland on Monday, but let’s face it: BK was a top 15 car at best and the fuel mileage factor played right into his hand. Going into the race this weekend, I’m ranking Keselowski conservatively at 11th, but I think he has the potential to score a top 10 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Brad’s first ever start here in 2009 left him with a 6th-place showing, and in the last two races here–despite ending in disappointing finishes (18th and 35th)–he has started in the top 5 both times. He’s not great at the flat tracks by any means but Keselowski won at Pocono in August and finished 9th at Indianapolis after starting 5th. If he looks good in practice, expect a solid showing from Brad on Sunday.

12. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer was another beneficiary of the fuel situation in Chicago, as he got a top 10 finish out of it. Clint’s record at New Hampshire isn’t stellar (16.2 average finish in eleven starts) but he does have two victories here and is the defending winner of this race, although that was due to his Tony Stewart’s fuel woes on the last lap. Bowyer hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2008 and owns three top 10s in that span of five races. If he gets a little luck on Sunday, Clint could get a top 10 finish, but I think he will end up right where he has at the flat tracks all season long: in the teens.

13. Mark Martin - Look what we have here: for the first time in the 2011 season, Mark Martin has back-to-back top 10 finishes and the series is coming into one of his best tracks on the circuit. In twenty-nine career starts at Loudon, Mark owns fourteen top 10s and he visited victory lane here in 2009. Of all those starts, Martin only has five finishes outside of the top 20. However, three of those five have came in the last three events here. I don’t think he’ll be that bad this weekend, though. In the five flat track races this season, Martin has three finishes of 13th or better and a worst finish of 22nd. With a little luck, Martin could record his third top 10 in a row on Sunday,

14. Martin Truex, Jr. - It’s a pretty risky pick but if nothing goes wrong for this #56 team, a top 15 should be a lock for Martin Truex, Jr. on Sunday. He finished 8th here in July and in the four races in 2007 and 2008, Martin finished in the top 10 in all of them. This team struggled at Indianapolis with their 24th-place finish, but in the other flat track races in 2011, Truex has been a top 15 car every time. I expect that to happen once again in New Hampshire on Sunday,

15. Greg Biffle - Another risky pick this weekend will be The Biff. It’s almost getting ridiculous how much bad luck this team has run into this season despite having very good race cars. At New Hampshire, Biffle has finished 18th or better in seven of the last eight races and he won here in 2008. The last three events at Loudon have ended with Greg in 16th, 17th, and 18th, and in the flat track races in 2011, this team has come away with four top 20s in five races. I expect the #16 Ford to end up in the mid-teens when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Those To Avoid Entering The Sylvania 300:

Matt Kenseth - The last-lap penalty in Chicago on Monday is really the last thing that Matt Kenseth needed because after the race in New Hampshire this weekend, his championship chances may be all but dead. In fact, Ryan Rantz has already stuck a fork in him (click here to read). Kenseth hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at Loudon since 2007, and hasn’t even really been close since then either–his best driver rating in the last seven races here has been 82.4. Matt finished 20th here in July.

Kasey Kahne - I’ve completely written off both Red Bull Racing drivers for the remainder of the season. Talk to me about Kahne next season when he’s driving for Hendrick. Kasey finished 6th here in July but his overall record at Loudon isn’t very stellar: only one top 5 in fifteen career starts and an average finish of 18th.

Brian Vickers - See what I said above about the Red Bull drivers. The last four races at New Hampshire have ended with Vickers finishing 34th, 11th, 35th, and 35th. He has one top 10 in twelve career starts at “The Magic Mile” and an average finish of 23rd. I’ll pass.

Bobby Labonte - He finished 7th here in July but don’t expect anything close to that this weekend out of Bobby Labonte. His driver rating during that race was just 24th-best, and that’s the finish, and that’s also his average finish at “The Magic Mile” over the last five races here. Expect a mid-20s finish out of Labonte this weekend–as usual.

Scouting Report: New Hampshire

How to make an informed pick for the New Hampshire Sylvania 300

1) The most important thing I would really focus on this week in the process of making an informed fantasy pick is to really study New Hampshire track history. New Hampshire is a “skill track”. The driver is the most important variable this week, not a teams aero department. Since this is a skill track drivers average finishes are extremely valuable fantasy information.

2) For New Hampshire I would strongly suggest you study recent results/ performances at similar tracks. The two similar tracks I would study are Phoenix and Richmond. Both of these tracks have data that can cross over for this weekends race at the Magic Mile.

3) Practice is important every week. In practice you really want a driver who says their car drives good. A good driving car at New Hampshire is a fast car.

4) Qualifying is important but it’s not the most important variable this week. During pit stops at New Hampshire lots of pit strategy will be taking place as drivers seek to get precious track position. Look for gas and goes and two tire pit stops to be frequent. The bottom line at New Hampshire is that the strong always get to the front.

Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Sylvania 300:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a three time winner who last won at New Hampshire in 2010. Earlier this year Johnson finished 5th and led 19 laps. Johnson started 28th and passed more cars then anyone (93). Jimmie has an average finish of 10th and a average start of 11th. This is Chase time and that means it’s “Jimmie time”.

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is a two time winner at New Hampshire. In July he finished second in what was Stewart- Haas Racing’s first one-two finish. Stewart has been extremely competitive here recently. In two out of the last three New Hampshire races he’s finished second. In the one race he didn’t finish second he was in the lead until he ran out of gas in the closing laps relegating him to a 24th place finish (led 100 laps). Stewart has led laps in the last eight consecutive races at New Hampshire (414 laps over last eight races).

Jeff Gordon – Now’s not the time to hop off the Jeff Gordon momentum bandwagon. He’s a three time New Hampshire winner (last in 1998) who’s only finished outside the top fifteen once since 2004. He should’ve won the 2009 race but Logano was aided by rain. Richmond (best car) and Phoenix (won) are similar tracks so there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat in the Sylvania 300.

Kevin Harvick – All RCR cars missed the setup at New Hampshire earlier this year. That really concerns me. His Richmond win was huge though in terms of inspiring fantasy NASCAR confidence for me. He also performed admirably at Phoenix in February and finished 4th with a damaged car. Before his 21st place finish in July Harvick had two consecutive 5th place finishes. Harvick won the New Hampshire Chase opening race in 2006.

Kurt Busch – Earlier this year Kurt Busch led 66 laps and finished 10th. On the last lap of the regular season race he was running in fifth before he ran out of gas. Since 2008 Kurt Busch has an average finish of 6th, a mid race average running position of 6th, and an average running position of 7th. The bottom line about Kurt Busch is that he’s always near the front of the pack.

VegasInsider.com odds to win at Loudon:

Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 7/1, Jeff Gordon 7/1, Brad Keselowski 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Ryan Newman 14/1, Kurt Busch 16/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Tony Stewart 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Kevin Harvick 7)Carl Edwards 8)Kyle Busch 9)Kurt Busch 10)Matt Kenseth

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Sylvania 300 Pre Race Loop Data Book
• 5 Year New Hampshire Averages
• Similar Track Averages
• Entry List
• Schedule of events

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Lenox Industrial Tools 301

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Clint Bowyer	17	10.68
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	17	12.74
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Clint Bowyer	17	14.89
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	6	15.21
Eric McClung	KFFL	Juan Pablo Montoya	30	13.53
Eric McGuire	free agent	Martin Truex Jr	8	12.58
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	4	14.42
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	12	13.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts			19.68
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Regan Smith	33	23.05
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Brad Keselowski	35	17.74
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	17	12.63
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	35	13.79
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	35	16.47
James Jones	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	35	14.42
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Joey Logano	4	10.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	17	14.42
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Burton	16	16.68
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Clint Bowyer	17	13.00

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Lenox Tools 301

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Kyle Busch	36	13.16
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	11	13.26
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kurt Busch	10	12.89
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	10	10.89
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kyle Busch	36	14.11
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kevin Harvick	21	15.42
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	11	12.53
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	2	14.79
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts			19.05
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	1	13.42
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	3	11.95
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	14.74
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	11	13.11
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	10.95
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	12.21
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	5	12.32
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jeff Gordon	11	8.74
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	11	9.58
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	10	13.79

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon - Lenox Industrial Tools 301

This week, the Sprint Cup Series visits New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Parking and traffic shouldn’t dominate the headlines this weekend, as it did before, during, and after the Kentucky race a few days ago (click here to read my story of that race, my first NASCAR experience). Now that my schedule is finally clear for an entire weekend, make sure you check out my Practice Breakdown and Post-Happy Hour Predictions, which can be found at www.ifantasyrace.com. Remember: the Sprint Cup Series takes the weekend after this race off before returning at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the last weekend of July.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Clint Bowyer led a race-high 177 laps en route to his first victory of the 2010 season. He would have nearly all of those points taken away though as NASCAR found the rear of his car to not not be up to specs after the race. Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kevin Harvick all recorded top fives that day. Tony Stewart, as you may remember, was leading with one lap to go but ran out of fuel and finished a disappointing 23rd. “Smoke” led 100 laps that day. In the spring race at New Hampshire, Jimmie Johnson started 10th and led only nine laps but took the checkered flag once it was all said and done. Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick followed him to the line. Harvick, along with Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., posted top ten finishes in both Loudon races last season.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Practice, practice, practice. I preached that average speedswould be a huge determinant in the Loudon race last fall, and you can click here to see if I was right or not. There is one practice session scheduled for Friday afternoon, and those speeds will set the qualifying lineup, which starts later that afternoon. I wouldn’t pay much attention to the first practice session speeds. However, there are two practices set to be ran on Saturday morning/afternoon, and I would watch them very closely to figure out who to pick on Sunday. I will also be referring to Pocono and Phoenix a lot in this preview, as those are the other two flat tracks that have been raced on this season. Be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown on ifantasyrace.com, and my Fantasy Predictions will return this week as well.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

1. Jimmie Johnson - One of the most surprising things to me thus far in the 2011 season is that the #48 team has only one win and that it came at Talladega of all places. I think that this will change in Loudon on Sunday. Johnson has the best driver rating over the past two years at this track and if a wheel wouldn’t have came loose from his Chevy in last year’s fall race, he would probably be coming into this race with an eight-race streak of top 10s at “The Magic Mile”. “Five Time” has visited victory lane here three times and has finished outside of the top 20 just twice in his eighteen career starts at this flat track.

2. Kurt Busch - I don’t know what Penske hit on, but week in and week out both of their cars are fast–and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. Only Johnson has a better driver rating over the last two years at Loudon than the elder Busch brother, and the “Double Deuce” came home 2nd and 8th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively. Kurt has visited victory lane three times at New Hampshire, and you have to believe that he will grab a victory here soon. Will it be this week? I guess we’ll find out. Before Kurt’s 13th-place effort in the last race here, he had a streak of five finishes in the top 6 at this track.

3. Kyle Busch - After last week’s dominating performance at Kentucky Speedway, it’s official: no one is as hot as “Rowdy” Busch is right now–not even his brother. Over the last five Sprint Cup races, Kyle has accumulated 199 total points, five more than Kurt. In the last ten, the younger Busch brother has amassed 367 points. Matt Kenseth is a distant second in that category with 350 points collected. At Loudon, Kyle Busch has one win and eight top 11 finishes in twelve starts. At Pocono, Busch finished 3rd after starting 34th, and at Phoenix he 23 laps before finishing runner-up to Jeff Gordon. This season it’s been boom or bust for Busch, so expect either a top five or a mid-teens finish out of the #18 on Sunday. I’d bet on the former, though.

4. Tony Stewart - Fantasy owners are getting a surprise this summer: “Smoke” hasn’t been a great pick week in and week out. He has had great race cars, though, and eventually this team will put everything together and get the finish they deserve. Over the last four races at this track, Stewart has the third-best average driver rating in the series and two top five finishes, which both came in the summer race. Tony has led at least one lap in the last seven races at New Hampshire, and remember: he was leading the last race here with one lap to go and ran out of fuel (giving him a 24th-place finish). When you take that out of the equation, “Smoke” hasn’t finished worse than 14th at this track since early 2007.

5. Jeff Gordon - This year I haven’t really liked picking Jeff Gordon, but he’s 2-for-2 on flat tracks this year and I think he could contend for the win on Sunday as well. Jeff finished 4th and 6th at New Hampshire last season and three wins and five runner-up finishes in his 32 starts here. In the last eleven races at this track, Gordon hasn’t finished outside of the top 15, which is quite an impressive feat when you think about it. In the last two years, only three drivers have a better average driver rating than Gordon at this track.

6. Denny Hamlin - Statistically, this is Denny’s fourth-best track on the circuit, as his average finish here is 7.6 over ten career starts. That average finish is also the best of anyone in the series. He visited victory lane at New Hampshire in 2007, and in two of the last three races here the #11 has finished runner-up. The one thing that really stands out to me when looking at Hamlin’s stats at this track is that he has completed 100% of the laps ran, which is the reason he has never finished outside of the top 15. I don’t expect that to change this weekend.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” won from the pole here in 2006 and has eleven top 10s in twenty career starts at this track. He crossed the stripe in 5th during both Loudon races last season and has finished in the top 15 in four of the last six Sprint Cup Series visits to the track. Harvick notched top five finishes at both Phoenix and Pocono earlier this year, and I don’t think it would surprise many to see the #29 Chevrolet up around there on Sunday, either.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer isn’t consistently great at New Hampshire, but the most recent race winner here does have two career victories on this track and is on a three-race streak of top 10s here. The #33 got caught up in that wreck at Phoenix and wasn’t very competitive at Pocono, so he may drop in my rankings once Happy Hour is over, but going into the race I look at Bowyer as a pretty solid pick. He has the fifth-highest average driver rating at Loudon over the last four races.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Even though Junior didn’t have a great 2010 season, he did find success at Loudon, notched 8th and 4th-place finishes. He has never visited victory lane at this track, but Dale does have six top 5 finishes in his twenty-three starts at “The Magic Mile”. He finished 10th at Phoenix and came home 6th at Pocono, so you have to believe this team is going to get out of their little dry spell (best finish of 19th in the past four Sprint Cup Series races).

10. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” is a very good flat track racer, and he has the fourth-best average finish since 2009 on those type of tracks of anyone in the series. At Loudon, Newman has visited victory lane twice and notched twelve top 10s in eighteen career starts. He is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track and I expect him to make that a four-race streak once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. At Pocono, Newman finished 9th, and at Phoenix he wound up 5th.

11. Carl Edwards - This will be the week that the #99 team has the chance to show that they are championship material. Of the 23 tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit, New Hampshire ranks 16th (in terms of average finish) for Carl Edwards. He has made thirteen starts on this one-mile track but has come away with just two top 10s, which were 2nd and 3rd-place efforts in 2006 and 2008, respectively. However, what is impressive to me is that Cousin Carl has just one finish outside of the top 20 in his career, and that was a 25th-place result in this race last season.

12. Brad Keselowski - As you probably know, I don’t like going against anyone on a hot streak, and over the last ten Sprint Cup races, only nine other drivers have scored more points than Brad Keselowski. He’s not blowing anyone out of the water–although I thought for a while that he was going to win in Kentucky–but he has three straight top 15s coming into the race this weekend. At New Hampshire, BK has an average career finish of 16.7, but he grabbed a 6th-place finish in his first start at “The Magic Mile” and won the pole here last September. At Phoenix, Brad brought the “Blue Deuce” home in 15th.

13. David Reutimann - With an average career finish of 17th, this is Reutimann’s third-best track on the series, and I think his 2nd-place run last weekend will give him momentum for a solid run at Loudon on Sunday. He started and brought the #00 Toyota home in 7th in the most recent race at this track and is on a five-race streak of top 15s here. As I’m sure you have figured out by now, Reutty is very hit-or-miss, so if he doesn’t look very good in practice, expect him to fall in my rankings.

14. A.J. Allmendinger - Right here is my sleeper pick for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Dinger was running in the top five in the last race here before running out of fuel and finishing 12th, and he also brought the #43 Ford home in 9th-place at Phoenix earlier this year. In this race one year ago, A.J. finished 10th. If he starts in the top fifteen and looks decent in practice, you’ll probably find him on at least one of my rosters Sunday.

15. Juan Montoya - The main concern with Montoya this week is whether he is going to get the finish he deserves. He was running great last week in Kentucky but had a pit road speeding penalty and had to settle for a finish outside of the top ten. In the last three Loudon races, JPM has two poles and a 5th-place start, but only one top ten (a 3rd in 2009) to show for it. In those three races he has also led a combined 141 laps. Juan’s average finish here is 19.5 but that should improve after Sunday’s race.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

16. Joey Logano - If you are going to buy into “Sliced Bread” at New Hampshire, take your chances in the summer race. He won the race here in 2009–albeit being rain-shortened–and followed that up with a 9th-place in the summer race last season. In the fall races, though, Logano’s best finish in three starts has been 21st. Joey finished 11th at Pocono and started 6th at Phoenix before he had engine problems. If the #20 Toyota is fast in practice, expect Logano to move up my rankings when I make my post-Happy Hour predictions on Saturday.

17. Jeff Burton - Even this ranking may be a little to high for Burton, but I’m going to go with it. His 19th-place effort in Kentucky last weekend has been the #31 Chevrolet’s best finish since mid-May, but the team has been consistent in that span, with all finishes coming between 19th and 25th. Burton’s last three starts at Loudon have given him finishes of 16th, 12th, and 15th, and he finished 20th at Pocono last June. It’s hard to believe that this team still do not have a top 10 to their credit this season, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend.

18. Matt Kenseth - Please scroll down to the “Avoid” section of my post to read my thoughts on Matt Kenseth this weekend…

19. Kasey Kahne - Kahne started 2nd and led 110 laps in this race last season before an engine issue delegated him to a 36th-place finish. He followed that up with a 14th-place effort in the fall race at Loudon. Kasey’s best finish here is 4th, but that came in 2004, and his best finish in the last nine races at this track has been 10th. The fact that he has completed less than 90% of the laps ran here is enough for me to avoid Kahne this weekend. He finished 12th and 6th at Pocono and Phoenix, though, so I could be wrong.

20. Mark Martin - Martin won here in 2009, but I expect him to be his usual self on Sunday. He finished 21st and 29th in the two Loudon races last season and if you still think the #5 time has a chance to be competitive this season, I’m guessing you’re not doing very well in fantasy. In ten of Martin’s first twelve starts at “The Magic Mile” he finished in the top 10, but that was in the 90’s and this is 2011.

Avoid These Drivers For The Lenox Industrial Tools 301:

Matt Kenseth - I may have him ranked this week, but you won’t find him on any of my rosters. Matt hasn’t finished better than 17th at Loudon since 2007, but he used to find success at this track so I could end up being completely wrong on the #17 this weekend. From 2003 to 2007, Kenseth posted ten top 10s in eleven races at “The Magic Mile” and the lone finish outside of that was a 14th. He ended up 8th and 12th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, earlier this year.

Jamie McMurray - I wouldn’t touch Jamie Mac for the rest of the season. This has done a complete 180 from their very successful season in 2010. Jamie finished 3rd here last year, but that was then and this is now. Before that run, you have to go back to 2004 to find McMurray’s last top ten at New Hampshire. His average career finish at this track is 22.2.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex found some success at “The Magic Mile” from 2007 to 2008, where he posted four straight top 10s, but since that little run he had (he was running for DEI at the time), Martin has yet to finish better than 19th here. He finished 10th and 14th at Pocono and Phoenix, respectively, but I don’t see Martin coming anywhere close to that this weekend.

David Ragan - His momentum may give him a little luck this weekend, but I would still avoid David Ragan at New Hampshire. His best finish came in his first start at this track–he ended up 15th after started 32nd–and David has only completed 94.6% of the laps in the races he has started here. If you’re in an allocation league, I wouldn’t even think about starting Ragan this week. If not, and you feel like taking a major risk, make sure he starts up front and looks stout in practice.

Scouting Report: New Hampshire

How to make an informed pick at New Hampshire:

1) Study past races at New Hampshire, NASCAR visits this venue plenty of times so there’s an abundant amount of fantasy data available. Things may change but because this is a drivers track past history is especially important here.

2) Studying recent similar track results should be second on your list in terms of making a good fantasy pick for New Hampshire. The tracks I would recommend you study are Phoenix and Richmond. Back in Kurt Busch’s final year at Roush Fenway Racing he won at Richmond and because these tracks are similar to each other his chassis returned to the track the following week and was raced by Mark Martin. This of course happened back in the “old car” days so it’s a testament about how similar these tracks are to each other.

3) Practice has a role in terms of making fantasy picks every week. This week if you watch practice make sure you focus on selecting drivers who are strong on long runs. At New Hampshire a fuel window should be around ~80 laps, so a long run will truly be a long run on Sunday.

4) Track position has been very important all year long so picking a driver who starts up front is always a plus. However the good teams always get to the front here. They may not get to the front by passing tons of cars but they’ll get to the front through pit strategy.

5) One thing I really wouldn’t focus on this week is studying correlations between New Hampshire and Martinsville. You can do it if you believe there similar, but I’m going to pass on that. New Hampshire is twice as large. That’s a big deal and as a result I’m leaving Martinsville out of my equation this week. Fantasy wise I view Martinsville is a unique track. If you really want to hang on to the theory their similar study the differences between how good Kurt Busch is at New Hampshire and how lack luster he is at Martinsville.

Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Industrial Tools 301:

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin hasn’t led a lot of laps at New Hampshire but beyond that he’s as good as gold this week. He has one win and an impressive 7.6 average finish. In ten starts Hamlin has never finished outside the top fifteen.

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has one win at New Hampshire and he’ll certainly be looking like the driver to beat heading into the weekend. What I really like about Kyle Busch is how strong he’s been on similar tracks this season. At Phoenix he finished second to Jeff Gordon and at Richmond he absolutely dominated. Some say Martinsville is a similar track (I have my disagreements here) and he finished 3rd there.

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch has an excellent record at New Hampshire. Last fall he finished 13th but in the five preceding races he finished inside the top six every race. Kurt has three wins at New Hampshire.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is the defending champion of this race and he’ll be tough to beat in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Last year Johnson had the third best driver rating (109.45) in both combined New Hampshire races.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick finished 5th in both races last season. In 2006 he won the Chase opening race at New Hampshire and led 196 laps. Some more positives about Harvick is that he finished 4th at Phoenix and won at Martinsville.

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last three races:

1)Kyle Busch 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Kurt Busch 4)Matt Kenseth 5)Joey Logano 6)Jimmie Johnson 7)Brad Keselowski 8)Kevin Harvick 9)David Ragan 10)Kasey Kahne

VegasInsider.com Odds to win at New Hampshire:

Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Harvick 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Carl Edwards 9/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Kurt Busch 10/1, Greg Biffle 12/1, Clint Bowyer 14/1, Matt Kenseth 15/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	25	16.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	24	11.26
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	9	10.33
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Tony Stewart	24	13.11
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	14.81
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	2	11.93
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.07
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	24	14.11
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Tony Stewart	24	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	2	11.26
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	25	10.44
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	11	15.93
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	25	13.26
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	9	13.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	9	14.15
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.52
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.81
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	25	12.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	2	16.19

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from Loudon

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.81
James Jones	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	12.78
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Ryan Newman	8	20.44
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.59
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	29	15.30
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinRyan Newman	298	14.2213.96
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	14.07
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.26
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Joey Logano	35	12.33
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Ryan Newman	8	12.33
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Martin Truex Jr	20	13.89
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.67
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	13.70
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	18.59
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	12.04
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	16	15.19
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	19.07
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	35	11.74

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